Pitching – Depth vs Stars

Posted By on March 24, 2019

I drove down to LA this weekend to visit a very close family friend and sharing in his surprise 75th birthday. At the hotel, I turned on the TV only to see SportsNet LA and watched Access Dodgers. I do miss LA for Dodger TV and Dodger Talk Radio.

One comment I heard from Pedro Moura was that the Dodgers are not flashy and have a ton of depth but lack that one or two superstars that can carry a team. I understand the comment, but I am not sure that I totally concur. They are definitely deep, they are not flashy, but I do believe that Corey Seager and Walker Buehler are two players that have that superstar feel, and JT is as close to being a superstar as there is (I do consider him a superstar). I am not sure that there is a lot of difference between JT and Nolan Arenado. I think highly of Arenado, but JT is a much better fit for LAD, and really how much better is Arenado overall? I know he is being paid as if he were much much much better.

I have enjoyed reading Pedro Moura from The Athletic, and his comment mentioned above was exactly how I feel about the Dodgers farm system. There are not a lot of sure-fire “can’t miss” players in the system, but there are a lot of potential ML players. As we get closer to the beginning of the MiLB season, I will take a look at some of those teams and potential with highlighting the Top 30 prospects.

Today I want to focus on pitching. There has been a lot of discussion about how good the Dodger pitching is. I agree the team potentially has a ton of pitching.  But none of the 5 starters have pitched without injury in the last few years, and none of the potential minor league arms are ready.  For every Walker Buehler, there are at least a dozen Henry Owens, Mark Appel, Tyler Glasnow, Lucas Giolito, Carson Fulmer, Carlos Rodon, Rob Kaminsky, Eddie Butler…Five years ago, in 2014, per MLB Pipeline:

Top 10 LHP:

  1. Julio Urias
  2. Andrew Heaney
  3. Carlos Rodon
  4. Henry Owens
  5. Daniel Norris
  6. Sean Manaea
  7. Kyle Freeland
  8. Max Fried
  9. Sean Newcomb
  10. Rob Kaminsky

Top 10 RHP:

  1. Lucas Giolito
  2. Archie Bradley
  3. Noah Syndergaard
  4. Jon Gray
  5. Dylan Bundy
  6. Tyler Glasnow
  7. Robert Stephenson
  8. Kohl Stewart
  9. Tyler Kolek
  10. Eddie Butler

Other names in 2015 top 10 include, Mark Appel, Carson Fulmer, Jose De Leon, Brian Johnson, Amir Garrett, and Tyler Jay.

Of the names above Kyle Freeland and Noah Syndergaard have clearly established themselves as top of the rotation starters.  Sean Newcomb, Dylan Bundy, Daniel Norris, Carlos Rodon, and Jon Gray have all spent time in a rotation, but none have fully established themselves for various reasons.  Julio Urias, Jon Gray and Sean Newcomb could all become #2 or #3.  Carlos Rodon, Daniel Norris, and Dylan Bundy are starters on bad teams, while Glasnow is a starter on a team with very few starting pitchers.  None would start for most if not all the contenders.

Sean Manaea would have been in the Freeland/Syndergaard camp, but with his shoulder labrum surgery last year, who knows what will become of him.  Andrew Heaney is another who has skills but cannot stay healthy.  His left elbow is inflamed again and is doubtful to break camp with the Halos again this year.

Archie Bradley, Brian Johnson, and Amir Garrett are relievers while both Bradley and Johnson could start if needed.

Not one Dodger pitcher is currently ranked in the top ten pitching prospects.  That by itself does not mean anything, but with the highly rated pitchers who have not made it, it does allow for scrutiny.

Using the MLB Pipeline Top 30 prospects, 14 of the Top 30 are pitchers; 12 RH and 2 LH. 4 of the top 10 are RHP; Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Dennis Santana, and Mitchell White. We all know of pitchers who were highly touted and in the top 10 who did not make it. There is still one remaining in the Dodgers organization and still in the top 30 (17) who was one of the top rated pitchers in all of MLB (Yadier Alvarez). There are still huge Yadi advocates because there is no denying of that arm, but the likelihood of Alvarez being a difference maker as a SP are fleeting at best. There is still hope that he can become a solid late inning high leverage reliever, but if he is going to make a difference it will be the bullpen where he makes his mark (IMO).

Dustin May (3) looks to be the one pitcher who looks as if he is a can’t miss SP, but so did Zach Lee to a whole host of top talent evaluators. Admittedly, I was hopeful, but did have serious doubts. Regardless as to how he has pitched this spring (it is spring), he still has a lot to develop. He is close, but not enough to get into the LAD starting pitcher discussion. He will get his legit chance next year.

Tony Gonsolin (5) is another highly regarded RHP but unlike his much younger teammate, Dustin May, Tony has been pitching well at levels he is older. He is still learning to be a starting pitcher, only his second year as a starting pitcher. There is still a lot for him to learn, but he has the arm and pitch repertoire. If his ceiling is not as a #3 SP, then his floor is as a high leverage reliever.

Dennis Santana (7) is still relatively learning how to be a pitcher. He is still a 2 pitch pitcher and while he may get that third pitch, it is more likely that he will become a very highly regarded late inning high leverage reliever who could be in line to eventually replace Kenley,

Mitchell White (9) has as good of a pitch repertoire as any in the Dodgers organization, but he just cannot stay healthy or consistent. This is going to be a very pivotal year for Mitch. If White has a tough year, he could fall as fast as Alvarez has.

Other top 20:

Michael Grove (15) – Another I am hopeful for, but he has not pitched in nearly two years. He may in fact become a mid rotation starting pitcher, but until he shows what he can do as a professional, it is still conjecture. He had the arm before the TJ surgery, so it is likely that he will pitch well enough to get moving up the proverbial organizational ladder.

Yadier Alvarez (17) – Once considered one of the top overall MLB pitching prospects, he is now considered a reclamation project who would not even be considered at that level if it were not for his potentially lethal arm. This should be Yadi’s final wake-up call. At some point you have to know when to cut bait.

Josiah Gray (18) – Some consider Gray the real reason for the Farmer trade. Jeter Downs was known by most MLB scouts, and by Dodger scouts in particular. But Gray is a huge unknown. He is yet another converted position player, who is still learning how to pitch. I have a feeling Josiah will get acclimated quickly in the Dodger organization, and after he begins the season (probably in Great Lakes), he will be looked at as someone capable of moving quickly.

Gerardo Carrillo (19) – Carrillo was 19 when he was promoted to Great Lakes and pitched very well. He does not have any overpowering pitch but has three at least average pitches that he knows how to throw to get outs. The question for Gerardo is will he be able to continue to showcase two average offspeed pitches in a starting role when the hitters get better. He is very young and should start back at Great Lakes, but he is going to need to show he can pitch to plus hitters at the California League and AA before we can pencil him in as a potential starting pitcher. I think he is more likely eventually headed to the bullpen.

Others:

Edwin Uceta (21)

Braydon Fisher (22)

John Rooney (23) (LHP)

Robinson Ortiz (24) (LHP)

Marshall Kasowski (Reliever)

Zach Willeman (29)

Of this group, I am most excited to watch Willeman. He has a very high ceiling with 4 above average pitches, but he is unproven. He showed true potential when he was finally able to pitch last year, making it to low A and pitching well.

Kasowski is a one pitch wonder, but with his delivery, that one pitch has been unhittable. He will see time at AAA this year, and if he pitches well could see time in LA maybe this summer.

It is easy to get excited about the Dodger pitchers in the farm system, but I choose to be cautious. If the Dodgers have to rely on pitchers who have pitched a total of around 40 innings at AA to make up for injured MLB pitchers it could be a long season.

With Kershaw and Hill scheduled to start the season on the IL, that puts two pitchers who were supposed to start the season as long relievers into the rotation (Strip and Julio). That puts more pressure on an already beleaguered bullpen. Gone are Fields (released) and Cingrani (IL), making Caleb Ferguson, who has not had a good spring (putting it politely), as a lock to open with the team. Who is going to be that 8th reliever?

Bottom line – There are enough pitchers in the Dodgers organization that they should be set for years, but Buehler and Urias are going to need to be the #1 and #2 for 2020 and beyond. If either of them cannot prove worthy of that lofty rotation spot, then they are going to need to hope for May and/or find that Ace in another organization. A lot of depth, but how many top of the rotation pitchers? Go back and look at the 2014 top 10 lists and see how many do make it to that level.

This article has 29 Comments

  2. We should know after this season if Urias and Buehler are those guys. May and Gonsolin appear nearly ready to slot as a #3 and #4. Mitch White has the stuff to be there too, but has difficulty staying healthy. Will it ALWAYS be that way? It’s hard to say. Clayton is around through 2022 and Ross Stripling is under control for a while, as is Maeda. So, I think the Dodgers are set for a while, even after Hill and Ryu depart after this season. Hopefully, both are motivated to have “career years.” I am also very high on Mike Grove.

    Many of the other prospects will flame out. One or two will surprise and a few others will be relievers.

    Speaking of flame-outs, from what I can discern, Morgan Cooper is not in Camp.

  3. Pretty smart of the Dodgers to draft pitchers with high upside that slid lower in the draft because of injury, or other anomaly. They’re also doing a great job developing them. A little luck probably helped. I think the reason they aren’t top 10 guys is mostly because of their draft position / injury history / pedigree more so than their tools or performance. You speak of Zach Lee. He had the pedigree and the health, but didn’t have the tools or performance. I remember seeing that he had multiple average or above average pitches, but none of them were plus. Time will tell and some won’t work out, but you have to like our chances when we have so many of them. At this point May and Gonsolin look like sure things. The both have great velo and great secondary pitches and look like they have the makeup as well. Santana and Ferguson don’t look like locks, but do look like they have a chance to be top of the rotation guys. The others are too far off to predict. You can do a lot worse than a future rotation of Urias, Bueller, May, Gonsolin and 5 other guys competing for that last spot with 3 more years of Kershaw and 5 more years of Maeda under contract.

    You mention Owens who I have close knowledge of. My son played High School ball with him and he lived in the track across the street. Without going into detail, he was highly touted, but maybe wasn’t the most receptive to instruction. He had the pedigree, a prep kid taken high in the draft. He was a very tall kid with project-ability and a fastball in the low to mid 90s. Most of the kids on the team would describe him as a goofball. The coach would let him do whatever he wanted. He was no Clayton Kershaw.

  4. Many who post here have an unrealistic view of prospects. Prospects are just that – until they are successful major leaguers. For pitchers, I remember those who hated the fact that the Dodgers traded Rubby de la Rosa and Alan Webster to the Bosox in the Adrian Gonzalez trade. Neither ever did anything. Or more recently, how about Jose de Leon for Logan Forsythe? Forsythe was a bust, but so was de Leon.

    Most of the guys that you mention will never have a successful major league career. That’s why more prospects are better – you have a better chance of finding gold if you mine through more dirt.

    I give the Braintrust high marks so far – the prospects that they’ve traded have been out of an abundance and have mostly done nothing.

    Will May, Gonsolin or Urias amount to anything? I hope so but am not banking on it.

    1. dodgerrick – I didn’t like the trade with the Red Sox the moment it was made. It was not because of trading prospects but taking on Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett and strangulation type contracts. Those contracts were instrumental in giving the Red Sox a WS ring. They took on a lot just to get Adrian, who was indeed a good Dodger.

      Having said that, I am one who most likely overly values prospects. Check that – highly overly values. I look at them as young men attempting the near impossible and we never know who will surprise us. I far prefer them to stop gap and often aging pitchers. A few come to mind – Chris Capuano, Matt Guerrier, Joe Blanton, Brandon League, Brian Wilson, Peter Moylan, Kevin Correia, Dan Haran, Chris Perez, Matt Latos, Chris Hartcher, etc. Some gave a good year or a few good games but most were past the point of good consistent production. They had had a career and some were good careers.

      You are right. The more prospects the better as that increases the chances of filling those spots with young arms who can give more than a year or two. I would much sooner see home grown guys move in than veteran players past their prime. The Dodgers do have some good starting pitcher prospects and keep an eye out for young relievers on the way.

      For the coming year, I can’t quite see where all of the young players in the system will slot in. The OKC and Tulsa rosters are pretty much full so advancement from Rancho Cucamonga and Great Lakes seems to be a roster challenge. Not to mention Ogden. I expect some to be released.

    2. I would bank on Urias, May and Gonsolin. There about as much of a sure thing as you can get. Urias already proved himself as an above average, if not dominant starting pitcher as a 19 year old. May and Gonsolin both have great tools and look like they have the poise as well. I think this is a consensus view, more so than that of a hugger.

      Things get a little dicey with Santana and Ferguson. Even more so with White and Grove. There’s too many of them to fit in a rotation together anyways.

      The position players are another story. I see K-bear as the only real sure thing with Lux being the next closest. Smith will at the very least be a glove first part of a catching platoon. Peters and Kendall have holes they need to work on. Rios and Beaty are far from sure things. Everyone else is too young to have proven themselves yet.

    3. “Unrealistic” is relative to how the team has been drafting. A few years ago, the players the Dodgers were drafting were mostly High School players who were Wild Ass Guesses. Now, there is a mix of HS and College players and the quality is much higher. The Greg Millers have been replaced withe the Walker Buehlers. Go figure!

  5. Cleveland just signed Brad Miller. He will probably start at 2B due to injuries. There is his break and move away from the Dodgers was the right one for him and his situation. I bet he’s got a shit eating grin on his face today.

    1. So happy for him. That is a situation that worked out for both parties. He was insurance for the Dodgers (injury or Seager not being ready) and a showcase for Miller if we didn’t need him.

  6. Arrenado is a great defensive 3rd baseman. His offensive numbers are padded by his home stadium. As are all Rox hitters.

  7. Tonight starts the most meaningful of these meaningless games. I’m sure all aboard will be putting forth a real effort to win as the experimenting should be surmised. Angels have always taken the preseason freeway games seriously as the fans do also. There’s been fights breaking out between Dodgers and Angels fans many times in the past. I hope the passion stays on the field and not with any fists of fans. Let the fun begin.

  9. Joc Pederson to Alanna Rizzo during her in-game interview, “I really like where I’m at this Spring Training”. What do you say to someone like this who is obviously struggling. His slash line is .156/.235/.444. He doesn’t hit and he doesn’t get on base.

    Kenley, poor control.

    Joe Davis, an announcer for Junior High School kids. Who is he? Orel, loving himself talk.

    1. Jeff

      I don’t care for Orel as an anouncer either.

      I much more prefer Nomar, because Nomar says it like it is, more.

      I thought we were at Disneyland with that interview, close enough in vicinity, but isn’t Disneyland the happiest place on earth?

  10. The changing marketplace in baseball seems to be to lock up your young stars (or potential stars) to a long term, less than maximum value contract playing on their fear of injury or some sort of social faux pas which would dramatically impact their earning potential. The game of the owners seems to be designed to keep players from becoming unrestricted free agents before they have moved into their thirties.

    Because everyone now assumes that these players will have rapidly declining skill sets and are thus a terrible investment on a four or five year contract, the marketplace for the proven professional has been significantly reduced. There have been numerous contracts of this nature signed late in the free agent season and just before the start of the regular season.

    The more often this occurs, the more reluctant all players become to test the free agent market and the more easily the owners can force even aging stars who have proven ongoing performance stats and limited injury history to accept short term contracts at $$$ below their value in an open marketplace.

    Should this trend continue into the next labor contract, I see this as a real issue that the players would be driven to want rectified because it will eventually effect every player at one or more points in their careers. I also fear that this issue would drive the best athletes in America and other nations of all ages to pursue other sports through their teen years and avoid the sport which would decrease the quality of players in the decades ahead.

    The owners need to think of what is best for the sport of BASEBALL for the next 150 years rather than what is best for their wallets now and in the short term. I wonder if there is a need for the players to have a person with the same decision making power as the Commissioner so that decisions have to be equitably agreed upon by a 2/3 majority of all parties involved. Just a thought to be pondered, don’t you think?

  11. Mark,
    Have had three posts go missing after submission. Am I doing something wrong or am I caught in a glitch vortex?

    1. Chargois is chopped liver as Floro is. Both not reliable. I tell you, we are looking worse and worse as we approach opening day.

  13. Don’ t count on it yet. Dodgers just signed a veteran reliever named Gregg who had a great spring with Cleveland after have a should impingement problem last season and has been rehabilitated through rest and physical therapy. Could fill a role of a veteran presence with post season experience.

    1. Jeff- this would have to be relative. Compared to whom would Vin be overrated?

      He was a one man – three man show – going without color commentary from others. He didn’t need it and others couldn’t have provided more than he did. He provided it all for himself, one man with no dead air time. The preparation time for each game must have been extraordinary. I forgot, there was some dead air time but only when Vin allowed the crowd to take over the mike to savor a moment.

      When Vin told a story which included himself it was about how it related to a player with whom he had interacted. Among his many virtues,I think humility topped the list.

      Who was the greatest Dodger of all time? For me it is Vin Scully who gave more to me over an unbelievable 67 years than any other Dodger. My view is of course slanted in that the first game I ever heard on radio in 1952, Vin was calling it. My radio dial never shifted to another game.

  16. Dodgers signed Justin Grimm (not Gregg) to a minor league contract. He will be in the mix for the final bullpen spot. Based on what I read about him, I suspect he’s not looked upon as a long term solution. Unless he surprises, I’m guessing that he could be replaced when someone else is ready or acquired.

  17. There are IMHO too many dark side comments being made during the last week. Those comments are a glimpse into our souls.

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