Believe No One!

Posted By on December 11, 2018

… especially not me.  Well, that is the one thing you can believe – I don’t have a clue! Believe that! That’s it.

At the Winter Meetings, some teams are talking, some aren’t.  The ones who are, could very well be putting out propaganda (false information). Some teams have a lot of leaks to the press.  Andrew Friedman’s Dodgers are very tight-lipped.  There are no leaks, except for a few misdirection statements.  Believe none of it. It’s fun to read about alleged trades or signings, but please, take it with a grain of salt.  Even the so-called “insiders” are treated like mushrooms at times (kept in the dark and fed BS).

I am for any trades that make the Dodger better, but I would be careful about trading a few players.  Of course, Buehler, Kershaw, Jansen, Turner, Seager, Bellinger, Ruiz and Lux are probably nearly untouchable and Matt Kemp is untradable. However, the rest of the roster might be fair game.  Here are three players I would protect and not trade:

  • ROSS STRIPLING – It seems that everyone wants Corey Kluber (well, maybe not “everyone”), but I would say there’s a reasonable chance (30%) Ross Stripling has as good a record in 2019 as Kluber.  I’m not predicting it, just saying, it could happen.  Many of us forget how unhittable Chicken Strip was for a couple of months last season.  If tipping his pitches caused his demise and he is able to “fix” it, why can’t he continue to pitch like he did during during May and June.  To me, Ross “found” his niche last season by throwing his curve and changeup effectively as well as an unorthodox cutter, along with his slider and fastball. For a time, he was not only the best pitcher on the Dodgers, but was one of the best in baseball. I would not trade him.
  • CHRIS TALYOR – A lot of Dodger fans are down on CT3 after his down year in 2018.  They say he had a career year in 2017.  Well, he has had 2 full seasons, so maybe they are right, but I happen to believe they are wrong.  I think 2018 was just a bad year… and it really wasn’t that bad.  In 2017, his OPS was .850, which is near “star status.” In 2018, it was .775, while the “great” George Springer had a .780 OPS.  I am being sarcastic! I think the Dodgers should put CT3 in CF and let him play.  At the end of the day, he will be in the Top Third of Centerfielders.
  • ALEX VERDUGO – He traveled a different path than Tony Gwynn as he did not play College Ball, but his bat-to-ball skills are exceptional.  He was told that he was the anointed one and felt entitled.  That doesn’t go away overnight, but Rich Hill and others have helped eradicate that attitude.  This kid could benefit the most from Robert Van Scoyoc’s approach. Verdugo does have incredible hitting skill.  I think he has a stot at greatness… and he has a canon for an arm.

The point is:  I think EVERY Dodger is available at the right price… including Seager and Turner… maybe not Clayton due to his icon status. The point is:  If you think the Indians will trade Kluber for Puig and a bunch of “guys” you will be disappointed. I would like Realmuto, but not at any cost.  This team is very good and could do very little for a while… or they could move a bunch of players.  None of know, but it’s fun to dream.  Just don’t be disappointed if the Dodgers do very little at the Wintger Meetings.

The Wild Card is that with Andrew Friedman, you never know.  By the way, it appears that he is the new GM and will surround himself with Assistants for specific purposes.  That makes more sense to me.

The Athletic

In my opinion, the best Sports Website is The Athletic.  Slowly but surely, they are accumulating many of the best writers in city after city.  It is a “must read” everyday.  It’s a pay site, but you probably spend more per week for Starbucks than  The Athletic costs a year.  Today, Pedro Moura writes about how Dodgers are in Pursuit of a dynamic hitting environment.” Maybe have a clue why Turner Ward left. I’ll give you two paragraphs:

“Let’s think about this differently,” [Friedman] said. “Let’s ask different questions. Let’s be open-minded to ways we can possibly combat that. I think between those three guys, their perspectives, their experiences, their abilities to relate and connect to players, plus how their skill sets complement each other, I just think it has a chance to be a really dynamic hitting environment.”

The attempts to engender that environment are underway. While the Dodgers front office spends the week at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino, Cody Bellinger will visit Dodger Stadium this week to meet with the club’s new hitting coaches. After his standout 2017 season earned him the National League Rookie of the Year honors, Bellinger produced a more normal but still above-average sophomore season. The totality of the team’s hopes for him, Friedman said, has not yet been conveyed, but he is also bringing along his own ideas.

It is an inspiring article and another tidbit is that Robert Van Scoyoc not only worked with JDM and CT3, but also worked extensively with Gavin Lux before the 2018 season.  We all know how Lux improved. Some really dumb silly people think all the strikeouts are what Friedman wants.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  He wants a more consistent offense next year and I really have difficulty with people who say “That’s just what Friedman wants!”  That’s silly – he wants improvement, this the changes.

This article has 104 Comments

  1. As you said if the trade makes the Dodgers better make the trade, for me that includes any Dodger player,if the trade truly makes the team better.
    When it comes to trade rumors involving the Dodgers just sit back and see what really happens.
    I would trade Stripling and Taylor for any players that make the team better, Verdugo because I think he is going to be that special it would take a very special player in return, one with at least 3 years left before FA.

    1. Yeah, I wonder if we don’t have a reasonable facsimile of those three Mark named in D. Santana, Keekay, & Toles.

      1. I like Kike – I have said he could breakout for a year or two. Santana has only two pitches, so until he develops another scalable pitch, he is a bullpen piece. Toles is a nice player but his ball-to-bat skills are not anything like Verdugos. Toles can be serviceable. Verdugo can be special.

      1. Not sure why the Mets or Indians would do that. I am sure Andrew would get those papers into the Commissioners office right away.

  3. Report from Jon Heyman stating all Dodger OF’s are available INCLUDING Bellinger for the right price. Is he kidding? It would have to be a MEGA deal where we would be stronger and fill multiple weak spots.

    1. I think that’s pretty silly. Bellinger and Seager ain’t going anywhere, ditto for Bueller and Urias. That’s definitely posturing. Like Mike says, “Believe no one”

  4. I like that they made a big overhaul in the hitting department after last year’s all or nothing offense. We’ll see how it works out, but I do have confidence in FAA (Friedman and all). I also like the jettisoning on Farhan. I know that most think he moved on under his own free will. Maybe he just loves the bay area and wanted to go home. We may never know if he took an offer he couldn’t refuse, or if he was “encouraged” to take the position on a team with bloated payroll, aging veteran players, an aging veteran manager who isn’t necessarily the “Analytics” type and a minor league system in disarray. The only real loss IMO was Chris Woodward.
    –
    Did you see Kike’s wedding pictures? Dude married WAY OUT OF HIS LEAGUE!
    –
    I agree that CT3 is a player that could become the key to the 2019 Dodgers. He could become a GG RF or 2B and a good leadoff hitter. I sure hope he’s practicing driving the outside pitch a few inches off the plate to right field. He’d be back to .850 in no time.
    –
    It’s totally unfair to keep mentioning the great Tony Gwynn in the same sentence as Alex Verdugo, much less comparing Alex to him. If Alex has any chance of being Gwynn, the Indians should trade Kluber and more to get him.
    –
    Cody Bellinger is going to be an absolute monster this year. He’s already hitting with the new coaches. 14-1 stolen bases? Are you kidding me? This guy is a legitimate 30/30, 40/40 guy that can play CF and 1B. How valuable is that?!?!
    –
    The Dodgers have the resources, financial, prospect, and MLB rostered players to make a big splash. They have the flexibility to allow them to insert pretty much anyone in their lineup. They have the talent on their current roster to do nothing, win the west, and most likely still advance to the World Series without doing anything at all. It’s a great time to be a Dodgers fan.
    –
    I still want them to get Harper, Kluber, Robertson and a catcher to pair with Barnes and some Right Handed Power (Abreu). That would be my best case scenario. I know that’s a big ask, but it’s Christmas time and I’m a greedy little kid at heart.
    –
    CT3 – 2B
    Seager – SS
    Turner – 3B
    Harper – LF
    Abreu – 1B
    Bellinger – CF
    Puig – RF
    Barnes – C

    Kershaw – LHP
    Kluber – RHP
    Ryu – LHP
    Bueller – RHP
    Urias – LHP

    Jansen – RHP
    Robertson – RHP
    Cingrani – LHP
    Baez – RHP
    Alexander – LHP
    Floro – RHP
    Ferguson – LHP
    –
    Best Case Scenario!

    1. Count me in the Chris Taylor fan club. To me, he was our team MVP in 2017, the year we should’ve won it all but didn’t. I’m not giving up on him after last year. I’d like to see him as our starting 2B or CF, knowing that we mix and match so much he’d be subbed out plenty. That said, we have a lot of options and he comes off the bench he’s still valuable.

  5. Since some think Harper will be a Dodger The Outfield will be Harper Taylor and Verdugo infield left side Turner, Seager Muncie second and Bellinger first.

  6. Of course you are right that nobody knows what the Dodgers will do. Apparently everybody wants Cody Bellinger. I am shocked. And Andrew is not budging??? I do not disagree with your assessment of the untouchables. Kershaw is untouchable for more than just being iconic (which he is). He has 10 & 5 rights giving him a full no-trade clause.
    .
    But that is where we depart. The three players that you would protect are the three that will be necessary to improve the team. Unless you believe that the team does not need to be improved. LAD has a surplus of pitching, OF, & utility players. Each of your three protectees are from one of those categories. If you are not willing to trade Alex Verdugo, then there is no chance of getting Corey Kluber. Because you are absolutely correct that the Tribe will not trade Kluber for Puig, Wood, and a bunch of scrubs. They want either Bellinger or Verdugo…PLUS controllable quality players. If you do not want Corey Kluber donning Dodger Blue at Chavez next year, that is an arguable position, but one that I do not agree with.
    .
    But let’s look at what you are really saying. The Dodgers do not need to do anything to win it all next year. Except that Andrew is going to have to trade Puig or Joc so that Verdugo can play. If Puig and Joc are both with the team, that means that Verdugo is going back to OKC (with Toles and Urias and Ferguson (?)). Seeing what AZ got for Goldy, I would not expect much more than a mid-tier prospect (100-200). Most teams #5 to #10 player. But it will not be for a 2019 game changer. Who is going to want a one and done $11.3MM player.
    .
    Of course we all expect Alex Wood to be traded. I have read from some disgruntled fans that say that Wood should just be DFA. If it were not for Wood and Roberts, the Dodgers would have beaten the BoSox. I am not saying that. That is what many are writing. Do not expect much in return for a $9.0MM back of the rotation starter.
    .
    In order to get Chicken Strip in the rotation, that would necessitate either Hill being traded, or Maeda being traded or moved to the bullpen. For this exercise, let’s go with Maeda to the pen. Changes from 2018: Gone are Machado/Grandal/Puig/Wood. Incoming are Corey Seager and ????? Since the Dodgers will not be trading any one of value, you have to be off the Realmuto possibility. Thus, it is going to be Barnes and Maldonado or Hundley or Weiters or Lucroy or McCann (James), etc.

    1B – Muncy/Freese (Platoon)
    2B – Taylor/Hernandez/Muncy (Platoon)
    SS – Seager/Taylor
    3B – JT/Freese
    LF – Joc/Kemp (Platoon)
    CF – Belli/Hernandez/Taylor
    RF – Verdugo/Hernandez/Taylor/Kemp
    C – Barnes/Gale or Farmer or ???
    .
    That is your 12 position players.
    .
    Starters – Buehler/Kershaw/Hill/Ryu/Stripling
    Relievers – 7 of – Maeda/Baez/Cingrani/Alexander/Floro/Fields/Ferguson/Garcia/Chargois
    Closer – Jansen
    .
    Urias and Toles to OKC. 2 of the 9 relievers probably DFA. Theoretically, Fields does have an option, and Ferguson could go to OKC as a starting pitcher.
    .
    I am not saying that Kluber, Realmuto, or Harper will get LA their November parade, but doing nothing other than shedding one and done expensive OF and SP is not going to get it done either. If you are not willing to trade value, you are not going to get value in return.
    .
    Of course with the proposed trade for prospects of Puig and Wood, the CBT salaries would be down to approximately $171MM. You have a good but not elite starting rotation, a decent bullpen but not dominant, and multiple platooning opportunities. Good enough to win the NL West (probably). But with the improvement of other NL teams, they would be a longshot to win the NLCS and get back to the WS much less win it.

    1. I would like to see changes, but I think the trade market will be slow.
      –
      Let’s not forget that the World Series MVP and one of the star pitchers for the Red Sox weren’t on their roster at the start of the season, and Joe Kelley didn’t become Joe Kelley until late.
      –
      Just no Change for the sake of Change when you have players that can grow a lot (that’s just my opinion).

      1. Your position is the same as Friedman’s. But even he says that he is prepared to go to ST with the current roster. He says not likely, but as you just said he is not going to make a change just to make a change. To me it is irrelevant that Pearce was the WS MVP. Joe Kelly fed into the LAD weakness of high fastballs. But that is classic launch angle swing hard baseball. Boston flat out had a better team and a better game plan than the Dodgers. They won it in 5. How can that possibly be debatable? So if you do not change, you are expecting the improvements to come from within. They have not won the WS for two straight years and they are not improving.
        .
        It is my contention that they could have had Gerrit Cole last year. Obviously I was not in any of the conversations, but the Dodgers could certainly have put together a far superior package than what Houston did. Either you and I are over-valuing the prospects or Zaidi did not want Cole. The Dodgers could have put together a better package for Christian Yelich than did the Brewers, or again we are over-valuing the talent. They chose not to spend the prospect capital.
        .
        How long do you want to wait before it becomes, “If not this year…when?”. IMO the Dodgers are there. Braves/Phillies/Padres/ are getting better. With the Cardinals pitching and with the addition of Goldy, they are going to be very tough in 2019. The Brewers are going to add starting pitching so they are going to improve. Contending is fine, but for 6 years??? I want to win, not just contend. Either the Dodgers are not as talented, or they are being managed poorly. If Friedman is convinced that Roberts is the right leader, then he needs to field a better team than the one that you just hope improves.
        .
        Without a change (multiple changes), Strip will not be in the rotation. Right now he is a RH long reliever/spot starter. Without a change, Verdugo is back at OKC. Even with a change in the OF, you are expecting Verdugo to put up better numbers than Puig. That is a lot to ask of a rookie. In the long term yes. But in 2019?Without any improvement in the catcher, how do you replace Grandal? Maybe CT3 gets back to his 2017 level. I do not have that expectation, but I also do not discount the possibility. I just do not know. But I do not see Max putting up another 35 HR season. Do you expect another 1st half from Kemp like last year? Without change, there is still no bridge to Jansen or a Jansen replacement if he falters due to health or his cutter continues to go MIA. Without change there are too many platoons.
        .
        If you stand still, people from behind pass you. You have to change to improve. LAD did not win, therefore to think that trotting out the same roster and hoping for a different outcome borders on incompetence or arrogance. I do not think the Dodgers FO is incompetent.

        1. AC–I think you’re great and your ideas are on another level from the mass of media idiocy that we see everywhere, including on MLBN as they attempt to sell ad space during the Winter Meetings. That said, I feel the need to come to the defense of the F.O. a bit. Even though we haven’t gotten over the hump yet (and there is no need to compare levels of misery about this–let’s assume all fans are heartbroken about it), we’ve been in the last two World Series and our system is as pumped and primed as it has ever been. We DID go for it the last years with the additions of Darvish & Machado. I think those two broke the mold of our “not going all-in” reputation. What we were able to do was to go for it in the present without sacrificing the future. And I do take exception to your take on the Boston loss, I left a birthday party during Game 4 with the Dodgers ahead 4-0, Kershaw on the mound at home the next game, and a thought that we were about to pull a 1996 Atlanta Braves and run the table for our first championship in 30 years. It didn’t happen. Like it didn’t happen the year before. Whether we were underdogs or favorites doesn’t matter at all, as crowns are earned based on what you do on the field. We had a shot, we have a shot, we will continue to have a shot. We can’t control the management of the roster so the best we can do is support it, debate it, and suggestions improvements for it. But I don’t find fault in its intent: I firmly believe they are trying to win as hard as possible. I think they are willing to make any move that is a win for the organization. I have no problem with them looking ahead enough to know that short-term sacrifices that may increases your chances today can have devastating effects in the future.

          1. I am not faulting the FO. They did get Darvish and Machado (and Hill). But for me (just me), if they truly believe that the same team they go to ST with is the same team that did not win the WS before, but will somehow win it this year, is wrong-headed. I do not think Andrew Friedman is incompetent. Quite the opposite. I have been a staunch supporter of his since the day he was hired, and my opinion has not changed. But we all have our peculiarities (I will not say faults), and I think Andrew is at times too stubborn just to prove a point.

        2. You nailed it AC, except the won it in 5 games part, which is undeniable. Bullpen was our biggest need and we struck out. Well, maybe more like popped up. If we get a shutdown reliever, we win game 1 and game 4, then the pressure is on the Sox. That’s one freaking piece and I entirely blame Zaidi because that’s what IT guys do. Blame the guy that was there before. 😉
          –
          As far as the roster goes, if we keep it the same, we are destined for similar results, maybe. A bullpen piece and Roberts being less stupid and we’re back to back champs.

    2. At this point I’m starting to warm to the idea of keeping Wood as our 5th starter in hopes of a resurgent motivated 2019 catapulting him into free agency. We know he has balls, nerves, and brains–it is only his stuff that can come and go. I understand if we trade for Kluber (who is an amazing pitcher) we probably need to shed some salary and open up a rotation spot. But I would make sure we have that deal in place before we “dump” Wood.
      *
      To me the Dodgers rotation front four is set with Kershaw/Buehler/Ryu/Hill. While I think Stripling is perfectly capable of holding down the #5 spot, I’m also fine with him beginning the year in the bullpen as a swingman–he’s kind of the Chris Taylor of pitchers: able to start but also valuable as a sub. Right now Wood would appear to have the #5 spot, but Urias could claim it by midseason. (For the sake of the comment, Ferguson & D. Santana are treated as relievers and Brock Stewart doesn’t exist.)
      *
      I guess I view Wood and Puig through the same lens: talented final-year core members of our team whom I would only seek to replace if the upgrade were substantial. For Wood that means Kluber and for Puig that means Harper. I am convinced we are not standing pat this offseason. I read somewhere that Zaidi was the conservative one and Friedman was the adventurous spirit. Because of our surpluses and redundancies, I think it’s mandatory to rebalance our portfolio this offseason. At the very least we need a “tandem” catcher to go along with Barnes. I would like to start there and see what comes next.

      1. Wood, Stripling, Maeda are all the same for me as far as the 5th spot goes. Any and all can be traded because Urias is going to be in that rotation at the end of the year. Wood, Stripling and Maeda can all be great in the pen and none of them want to be. They all have the upside of No 3’s as well, but they aren’t as good as Kersh, Bueller, Ryu, or Hill who are all completely unhittable at times.

        1. I knew I forgot someone: Maeda. Thanks. Yeah, they’re all the same but Stripling can be easily sent to the pen due to youth/cost/lack of ego and we know Maeda can be great coming out of the pen. I’m not sure if Wood has proven he can be anything special coming out of the pen, and even with the current roster he is likely behind 4th behind Cingrani, Urias, & Ferguson. I just read somewhere that Hill could be traded, which I don’t believe, but Wood shouldn’t be considered that far behind him. I can see the appeal of adding a Kluber to firm up the top half of the rotation, especially with the multi-year team control, something lacking in Ryu, Hill, & Wood.
          *
          If today were the start of the 2020 season, our rotation would be Kershaw, Buehler, Urias, D. Santana & May? We could use another core guy in there & free agency is a tough place to find a starter.

          1. You’re forgetting Ferguson, Gonsolin and White in 2020. That’s not a bad place to be with 5 guys competing for 2 spots. You forgot Maeda again for 2020 unless he’s traded. But, they aren’t going to trade Hill, Wood, Stripling and Maeda this year. So, 2020 looks more like Kersh, Bueller, Urias. One of Maeda or Stripling and all those other guys competing for the 5th spot and flying planes between OKC and LA. I’ll take that rotation! But, Kluber / DeGrom / Thor would be a great adds as well. Who knows if those Mets are really available.
            –
            Any rotation that begins with Kershaw Bueller and Urias is awesome. I’m assuming Kershaw will be better than last year, otherwise we were really stupid for picking up 3 years of 31 million. I’m assuming Urias is going to be better than ever before. He’s older, stronger and the fastball was great in flashes last year. I believe all three are sub 3 era guys. That’s Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz good. That’s historic good.

          2. 59–to quote Rick Perry, “Oops.”
            *
            Curious to see what they do with Ferguson. There’s an old saying: Be careful what you get good at. Ferguson might not make it out of our bullpen if he turns into a Hand/Miller-type set-up man. You’re right that Maeda & Stripling remain under team control in 2020; I guess if I have trouble fitting them into the 2019 rotation I can’t assume they’ll be around for 2020.
            *
            I did forget about Gonsolin. He’s certainly in the mix. I’m waiting on White to show he can last a full year before I put him in any future rotations.
            *
            We do have a lot of options, but with pitching prospects–as you know–we’ll be fortunate if one or two of them pan out.

  7. Truth. Well said AC. As the old song said… “Something for nothing means nothing, you gotta have something to be with me!”

  8. According to Bleacher Report. Dodgers are willing to trade 2 of these 4 outfielders. They are Kemp, Peterson, Puig, and Bellinger. Two pitchers they would trade are Wod and Hill. I would not trade a Bellinger under any circumstances. The others I would agree with.

    1. I’m with you. I think they trade Verdugo before Bellinger. I find it very difficult to think they trade Belli, at age 23, 4.2 WAR in a down year. They would really have to break the bank to trade him.

      1. I really can’t think of a situation in which they trade Bellinger. His talent, athleticism, versatility & team-control make him about as valuable a piece as we have [Buehler is arguably higher].
        *
        I wouldn’t trade him for Realmuto or Kluber, so I’m not sure who else is left out there. Harper just costs money so he doesn’t belong in the conversation.
        *
        I’d say, move along nothing to see on any Bellinger rumors.

  9. OK, I’m giving in to Hot Stove Fever. It’s a nice mental break from real issues that matter. Here are the names I’ve heard that I actually put some credence to:

    1. Harper–makes too much sense not to pursue. elite bat. superstar marketability. only costs money.
    2. Kluber–a matter of availability perhaps. who wouldn’t want a perennial cy young candidate?
    3. Realmuto–some whispers that the marlins didn’t get enough in previous trades so are really trying to wring out a lot from the concensus “best catcher in the game”; the fact we have massive catching pipeline makes me cautious.
    4. LeMahieu–interesting idea of sneaking in a new free agent piece at a position we appear to have an opening at; Lux factors somewhat into equation as he could be ready in 2020 and might be blocked.
    5. Robertson/Ottovino/Joe Kelly–just when you think you know a GM . . . seriously, i could see us taking a plunge to address an area we’ve been accused of being deficient in: elite set-up experience. purely a proactive postseason move.
    6. Castellanos–never really knew much about him but he’s big, hits RH, and plays RF. sounds like a Puig replacement if needed.
    7. Cervelli/Maldonado/Hundley–sure. i mean, we do need another catcher pretty bad.
    8. Pollock–interesting just like Lemahieu; put him in CF; maybe a “Grit” play; still think unlikely unless falls in lap.
    9. Haniger–darkhorse. would be a nice fit but cost would be huge. still largely unproven. a risk.
    10. Thor–lightnorse. would be a nice fit but cost would be huge. still large. an injury risk.

  10. I know Verdugo is only 22, and he has very good bat to ball skills.

    But although he had really really good numbers against lefties in AAA last year in 96 at bats, his numbers against righties last year, were not that special.

    In 247 at bats against righties at AAA last year, Verdugo hit 304 and his OPS was 816.

    Toles in 192 at bats against righties last year hit 333, and his OPS was 862.

    Also, Verdugo hit 10 HRs last year, and 7 of his HRs, were solo HRs.

    And Toles hit 7 HRs last year, and 6 of his HRs came when there were runners on base.

    I know numbers are not everything, and Verdugo did hit much much better then Toles against lefties.

    But both players had more then twice as many at bats against righties last year then lefties, and those numbers in the majors won’t change.

    But with the time Toles has missed and his slow start last year, I would think Verdugo would have much better numbers.

    And because of that, and Verdugo’s numbers against righties, and his numbers when runners were in scoring position last year, it makes me wonder about Verdugo.

    But like I already said, numbers are not everything, but these numbers do make me wonder.

    1. I share your feelings about Toles, but teams aren’t beating on the Dodgers door for Toles for a reason. I think Verdugo is definitely an everyday player in GM’s minds. If the Dodgers can move Verdugo, Joc, and Kemp. I think it would be great for Toles to be the 4th outfielder who can play all 3 spots next season after the Dodgers add Harper. Probably won’t happen that way though.

      1. I think Toles is what he is: an insurance policy for our outfield who could play a prominent role if events spin that way. He’s the non-white, fast, left-handed, outfield version of Charlie Culbertson. Probably an ideal 4th/5th OF too. Bottom line is he’s an option, and options have value. It’s not like we lose anything by holding onto him. This F.O. is heartless in a way I really like. It’s all about the team, the organization, not the player.

  11. The Dodgers have Kemp, Verdugo, Toles, Puig, Joc, Taylor, Kike, and Bellinger who can all play OF. With Bellinger’s speed, power, glove, and youth I’m not dealing him for Realmuto. Nor am I shortening the Dodgers window of winning by doing so for a catcher while have 3 highly regarded catchers in the pipeline and I’m not counting Wong and others. The rest can be considered excess that can be moved. I for one think Puig is more than that, but if it makes the team better so be it. I don’t see the Dodgers adding Bellinger to Kemp either just to move Kemp’s money considering they were willing to release Kemp just a year ago and eat over $40 million dollars.
    ~
    Wood, Maeda, Stripling, and Hill also can be seen as excess that can be moved to help acquire pieces. I’m a bit surprised to see Hill mentioned today considering he has been the best postseason pitcher on the team and their goal is to win the WS. Dick Mountain is a guy I would want on my team in the postseason and in the locker room. I’f I’m a contending team I’m knocking on the Dodgers door for Hill to fill out my rotation for one year. If the Dodgers are after Kluber then Maeda isn’t in their bullpen plans, he should get moved.
    ~
    Everyone of these guys are going to be in rumors whether the rumors are accurate or not. It appears to me the Dodgers are trying to figure out how to shuffle their roster around to be in on Harper. I could be wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time, but if Harper wants the most money it is the White Sox or Phillies. The White Sox can wait it out. The Phillies not so much. The Nats GM said the door was open for a reunion yesterday even if it’s unlikely. So, who does Scott Boras and Bryce Harper want in? The Dodgers and/or Yankees. Brian Cashman just yesterday said, “why are you still asking me about Harper. We have enough outfielders and aren’t interested in playing him at 1st base.” Harper’s deal won’t get done until the dust has settled a bit on trades.

  12. First reaction to McCutcheon signing by Philly (3y/$50m) was, “Wow, that’s a lot of money.”
    *
    I’ve always been a fan and even considered him as a possible add-on piece headed into last year’s postseason but I was scared off by baseball people who said he’d clearly lost a step defensively and is in decline.
    *
    Second reaction was to think of Evan Longoria, whom the Giants also brought to town in their ill-fated and soon-aborted attempt to be relevant in 2018. I don’t have the numbers in front of me in terms of which team is paying all the salary, but here is what Longoria is due the remainder of his contract:

    2019: $14.5m
    2020: $15m
    2021: $18.5m
    2022: $19.5m
    2023: $5m buyout

    1. This is a terrible contract. Phillies should get blasted for it. What’s AJ Pollack going to get know? $20 million a year?

      2. Hawkeye

        This was more about Verdugo then Toles with me.

        I was only using Toles as a measure here.

        I don’t really know about either for sure.

        But as relaxed as Verdugo looks at the plate, I would think he would be much better when runners were in scoring position.

        And I would think he would have better numbers against righties in AAA.

        That is why I said numbers are not always everything, but I would think Verdugo would have much better numbers then Toles, because Toles has played only 2 seasons, in the last 4 years.

        Because if Toles hadn’t missed that much time, I would expect more from him, because he is older.

        I am not talking about trade value, because I know Verdugo has much more value, because of his age.

        Maybe this hitting coach, can help Verdugo hit better in these situations, because he does look so relaxed at the plate.

  13. We have already seen what a top hitting GG 1B with one year team control brings in return. Now we see what the return is for RHSP Ivan Nova with 1 year remaining. 19 year old (20 in January) RHP Yordi Rosario + $500K international bonus pool money. Rosario spent 2018 in the DSL and AZL. That means that the return for Alex Wood is somewhere in the A league maybe A+. So if Puig and Wood are in deed traded, will it be for a salary dump? Because it does not appear that anything of value for 2019 will be coming back.
    .
    Andrew said he would be fine going into ST with the current roster.

    1. Isn’t the assumption that the salary saved would be spent elsewhere? If we really are up against it on payroll, the only way to free up space to add a C/RP/2B through free agency would be to move other salaries in areas we have abundant depth. In that way, it’s so much “something for nothing” but “something for the ability to do something else.”
      *
      As long as the result is improvement I’m all for it. I will say there is a paradox in trying to add impact talent: the prices in free agency are so insane it almost makes not want to shop in that aisle at all; BUT, the cost in prospects can also be prohibitive. The desire to spend money is mostly due to an aversion to give up young talent. Assuming we can identify what we can survive losing, trades can often be the easier route.
      *
      I wouldn’t make a good GM because I fall in love with my own prospects. Conversely, I usually think a team doesn’t get enough when it sells an asset (Goldy being a prime example).

      1. I think it depends entirely where Andrew is. He may prefer the depth that Yasiel and Alex give rather than the cash. He has never spent on top FA. I am not saying he will not, but he hasn’t yet. With NYY out (or so they say), Phillies may be out with Cutch, that leaves the White Sox as the chief competition for Harper. Cards are probably out unless they can move Fowler. I read someone say that the Cubs may be making a serious offer. I do not see how they can without going over $250MM CBT. With the surtax, that is an expensive FA signing.
        .
        Theoretically yes. With moving Puig and Wood, that would free up another $20MM. That would drop the CBT AAV to about $171 or $35 below the threshold. That opens the door for some significant FA signing (Harper) or the acquisition of a CY award winning pitcher. It would give Andrew flexibility to maneuver.

  14. Blue Jays Release Troy Tulowitzki
    By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2018 at 2:01pm CDT

    The Blue Jays announced today that they have released veteran shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. The Toronto organization will remain obligated to pay him the remaining $38MM in guaranteed money on his contract (including a buyout of a 2021 option).

    Tulowitzki, 34, missed all of the 2018 season due to bone spurs in both heels. He had been sidelined for a long stretch of 2017 as well, all while enduring an offensive decline, making for quite an uncertain future for the former superstar.

    Still, it’s surprising that the Jays ended up moving on in this fashion. With two more guaranteed seasons on his contract, Tulowitzki could have been given a shot to work back to health and perhaps build up some trade value. Evidently that was not seen as a workable solution by the organization, which is transitioning to what it hopes will be a new core.

    Teams that wish to take a shot on a rebound can now employ Tulowitzki for the league minimum salary for the next two campaigns, with the Jays footing the remainder of the bill. He’ll surely be guided by the chance at playing time, among other considerations, though even with that appealing contract situation it remains to be seen whether any MLB clubs will consider Tulo a reasonable candidate for semi-regular time (and, if so, whether he’ll still be seen as a shortstop).

  15. #Dodgers, #Reds have talked multiple times, sources tell The Athletic. Different packages being discussed; Puig in play as well as other LAD outfielders, pitchers. Dodgers want to clear money for other pursuits. Puig projected $11.3M in arb, per @mlbtraderumors, Alex Wood $9M.

    1. Harper is the single best move this organization could do. I realize there are naysayers and they are entitled to their opinions. No other move we could make would help us move than adding him.

    2. I can confirm @Ken_Rosenthal report that #Dodgers and #Reds have discussed trades with the intention of clearing salary for LA. Puig, Kemp, Wood and Hill have all been discussed, presumably allowing them to take on more money like Kluber’s $17.5M and possibly Harper.
      ~
      That’s from Michael Duarte’s twitter

          1. First, we have to set the framework. So I asked Dan Szymborski, father of ZiPs projections, to run his own simulation of the 2019 season. His method first projects each of the players and then simulates a depth chart by picking the best players and awarding them differing amounts of playing time. That allows him to convert individual projections into team projections. Then he takes those median projections for each team and virtually ‘plays out’ the season over and over again.

            If you take the projected win totals from this exercise, and then rank the teams by wins and compare them to the current odds at the Mandalay Bay sports book published on Dec. 10, you can find the teams the numbers say are underrated.
            *
            Rockies projected at 79 wins

        2. It makes it easy to win 97 when none of the rest in your division are projected to break even. I agree the team as it is will win the NL West. I do not think there is an argument. However, the Nats are better, the Cardinals are better, the Braves are better, and the Phillies are better. All without doing nothing else. The Mets are better but not yet good enough to contend. The Cubs and Brewers are still formidable. The Brewers will be getting a top of the rotation pitcher. They are in on both Happ and Keuchel. They are going to get Jimmie Nelson back. Corbin Burnes is ready to take off. They could re-sign Miley. There are unsupported rumors (aren’t they all) that Chicago Cubs (not ChiSox) are going hard after Harper. They could be skirting $255MM CBT if they follow through. They are already at $225MM.
          .
          Rumors (again just that) – One has Gennett ($10.7MM) and relief. One has Homer Baily ($23MM v $17.5MM AAV) and prospects. Those reports do not sound like shedding payroll. Puig could hit 40+ at the Great American.

      2. Just like last year, I think that’s a little high. The FO has to
        show that the inability to spend wildly will not determine the quality
        of the on-field product. They won about what I thought they would
        (high 80s was my pre-season feel). They won only a game or two more
        than the Rays, (who reside with the Red Sox and Yanks), needed an extra
        day to claim the mediocre NL West, and struggled mightily to get past
        the highly-wounded Brewers. That was no juggernaut, boys and girls.
        Agree with AC – they still have a hill to climb.

  18. Puig seems to be rumored way too much. He’s gone man! Lots of rumors and no freaking action.

  19. Also in The Athletic was that Van Soyoc worked with Gavin Lux to get his offensive game going.

  20. Bryce Harper may make us better for 2 or 3 years, but we thought that about Kemp too. Signing Harper to a 10-year deal is a dope-fiend move. PUT DOWN THE CRACK PIPE.
    –
    Maybe the new hitting program will fall flat on it’s face… or maybe, just maybe, this is the next big thing. Maybe the hitters we have now become 10%, 20%, 30% better overall. Let’s realize that this is a bold move by Andrew. Maybe it fails.. but maybe it doesn’t. I don’t want any dope-fiend moves that saddle the team with a bad contract for years. Outside of Max Scherzer, what long-term deal has paid off.
    –
    The maturation and progression of young players is not linear. Case-in-point: Cody Bellinger. Could he breakout in 2019 under RVS? It’s worth consideration.
    –
    Why would the Dodgers get another 2B and block Lux? Corey Kluber didn’t pitch any better than Chicken Strip for two months last year… only deGrom did. Grow your own damn pitchers – most of the ones you buy crash and burn!

    2. How does Gennett block Lux? Gennett is a FA after next year. I am not saying that I agree with the acquisition, just that Scooter will not be blocking Lux.
      .
      Are you seriously comparing Strip to Kluber? Forget that none of us truly are professional baseball talent evaluators, but I would bet that not one single GM would rate Strip above Kluber. Mark Fidryich was also fantastic in 1976, not much after.
      .
      I am not in on 10 years of Harper, but one or two or three years of Corey Kluber would make me smile.
      .
      I go back to my question earlier…Stolen from Theo – If not this year, when? It is tough to always play for next year.

        1. I stand by that! Do you remember how well Strip was pitching for a couple of months last year. He almost pitched a no-no as a rookie. The stuff is there. TJ is behind him and he’s nearing 30.
          –
          At age 27, Kluber looked like “a guy” with a 3.85 ERA before he broke out. Stripling’s ERA’s:
          2016 – 3.96
          2017 – 3.75
          2018 – 3.02
          –
          I look for him to continue his growth. Too many of you look at WHAT IS! I look for WHAT WILL BE! … and I am not always right. But, what if Strip outpitched Kluber in 2019.

          1. What if Wood got back to his 2017 and outpitched deGrom as he did in 2017? Not very likely. Wood is also two years younger than deGrom. Wood is younger than Strip. I like Ross Stripling, and I hope he gets into the rotation, but right now he isn’t. Projections (what will be) need a basis for support. Two months in one year does not provide enough of a foundation to draw any conclusion that he will pitch better than Kluber. Kluber was CY #3 in 2018 after winning it in 2017. He doesn’t appear hurt, but he could absolutely go on the DL in April. They all can. Especially if they are wearing Dodger Blue.
            .
            Maybe Ross will pitch better than Kluber, but there is nothing that supports it except that is what you hope for. I certainly hope so too.

      2. Here’s my point: The Corey Kluber we have seen the past 3 years likely is not the one will see the next 3. The Chicken Strip we have seen the past 3 years may be like Kluber was the last three. Neither may happen as well. Gennett would be nice, but he has a lot of confidence from playing in Cincy… I would trade Puig and Wood for Kluber and roll the dice… but the Indians won’t.

  21. Rosenthal:
    `
    The Reds and Dodgers have talked multiple times, sources tell The Athletic. Different packages being discussed; Puig in play as well as other LAD outfielders, pitchers. Dodgers want to clear spots &/or money for other pursuits. Puig projected $11.3M in arb, Alex Wood $9M.
    `
    In one variation of this deal, the Dodgers would take back Homer Bailey from the Reds and his remaining $28M commitment as a way of buying prospects. Bailey’s CBT number (average annual salary in multi-year deal) is $17.5M. Deal complex, still in discussion, not close.

    1. Of note to the above:

      Sources indicate one of the players the Dodgers are considering in the Puig deal from the Reds is AA RHP Vladimir Gutierrez who went 9-10 with a 4.35 ERA with 145 Ks and 38 BB in 147IP.

      1. Sounds about right. I said Puig would bring a #5 to #10. Gutierrez is #9. Here is what MLB Pipeline has on him:
        .
        “He does it with a three-pitch mix that gives him a good chance to start. His fastball touches as high as 97-98 mph, but wasn’t consistent, more frequently sitting in the low 90s in 2017. He adds and subtracts from his plus curveball without losing bite to it, throwing it for strikes at times and bouncing it as a chase pitch at others. He has feel for a changeup that should be average in time.”
        .
        He is a Cuban who was just getting back to pitching in 2017 after not pitching competitively for two years. He would slot in somewhere around Grove and Gonsolin.

  22. I thought we wanted to win now? Where’s the urgency? In three years harper will be surrounded by the fruits of our farm system. Nobody will sign with us because free agency remains the ultimate prize for players. We keep talking about “let’s go all-in”; what’s more all-in than signing the best bat on the market?

      1. I will say freeing up payroll for Kluber is far more likely than targeting Harper. I mostly think it would be fun and sports is supposed to be fun.

  23. Kluber will be 33 next year and has 5 consecutive seasons of 200+ Innings under his belt. The odds are against him. Not many pitchers that age sustain it.

  24. Puig and Wood are playing for new contracts in 2020. Sometimes those guys have “career years”… and sometimes they don’t!

  26. Remember Freidman’s 1st Winter Meetings with the Dee Gordon deal, flipping Heaney for Kendrick and signing Rollins? He also did the Kemp/Grandal trade. I am feeling a flurry of moves about to unfold involving multiple teams and the fans won’t know quite what to make of it. Not that I would bet on it but the odds have to be 50/50.

    1. I would not bet that will happen…
      –
      and I would not bet that would not happen.
      –
      Indecision may or may not be part of my problem.

  27. Why hasn’t anyone mentioned the Homer Bailey part of the rumor? What the hell are they gonna do with Homer Bailey and his contract? How would replacing Puig with Bailey improve the team or the payroll? Ironic considering the headline of this post?

    1. Sounds like it would be a move to spread out payroll obligations like with the Kemp trade. Lower payroll hit for 2019 in exchange for some in 2020. I’ll gladly you Tuesday for a hamburger today.

    2. I doubt that anyone believes that the Dodgers are remotely interested in Homer Baily. Maybe they are reminiscing about the Maury Wills trade to Pittsburgh for Bob Bailey (and Gene Michael). The Reds do not have enough prospects for the Dodgers to take on Homer Bailey. They are not about to include Nick Senzel, Taylor Trammel, Hunter Greene, or Jonathan India, so what is there to excite the Dodgers. I do not give this much credence.
      .
      Scooter Gennett I understand. But I would rather have Puig and Taylor/Muncy/Kike’ than Verdugo and Gennett. There is no real improvement. If they want Puig for Iglesias, then there could be some traction.

  28. AC–Is Jose Leclerc the reliever you’ve been talking up? Just saw some video of him on a new Grant Brisbee piece and his stuff looks unhittable. I’d give up a lot for that arm . . .

    1. That is exactly who I have been talking about since last April/May. He is unhittable. I would trade Stripling for Leclerc right now. I do not know if Texas would (or Mark) but they need controllable starters and they do not need closers for another couple years. He was born 30 miles from Dallas and he would be going home as their Ace. He is better than Mike Minor. Kenley Jansen could then become the bridge to Jose Leclerc.

  29. Just thinking. What if the Dodgers could pull off a Puig for Iglesias and Strip for Leclerc. I do not think anybody touches the Dodgers bullpen. Baez (R), Alexander (L), Floro (R), Ferguson (L), Cingrani (L), Jansen (R), Iglesias (R), Leclerc (R). That blows away the Brewers and Yankees.
    .
    Maybe it takes Puig with Fields, and Strip with Stewart. Dodgers pick up $5MM of AAV. It is probably dreaming but I am tired and this may make me dream good dreams before I get up and play with numbers tomorrow AM.

    1. Iglesias just signed an extension. I doubt he’s going anywhere. The Reds are actually trying to improve now. I would love Leclerc for Stripling. I doubt Texas would though. Bailey for Kemp saves about $ 5million on the AAV I believe.
      ~
      Jon Heyman tweeted that basically everyone except Buehler and Bellinger are available in trades. He then added of course Seager, Kershaw, and Jansen would be added to that list.
      ~
      Rosenthal tweeted that the Dodgers have checked in with the Cardinals on Jose Martinez which makes zero sense unless Freidman is up to a multi-team deal.

      1. I heard that they signed him so he would be easier to trade. They are not in love with him in Cincy.

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