John Sickels has just released his 2018 top-20 Dodger Prospects list. I looked at his list with some interest, well quite a bit of interest. I take top prospect lists with a grain of salt as they are in a constant state of flux and no doubt subject to the baseball biases of those compiling the lists. Intangibles most likely are not able to be part of those attributes being ascribed to a player. I am often swayed when I hear a manager such as the venerable John Shoemaker speak about what a youngster brings to the field, clubhouse and team that cannot to be given a number designation. So, I too have my biases.
I do like John Sickels’ lists as well as any as he ranks by category and as readers and fans we can interchange those a bit within his category if we so choose. When I checked his list the two names that popped out for me were Tony Gonsolin and personal favorite Omar Estevez. That would be the same Estevez that hit that amazing grand slam with the Loons in 2016 turning their season into a play-off and league championship run.
However, this is about Tony Gonsolin. Here is what John Sickels wrote about the 2018 Dodger Minor League Pitcher of the Year.
“Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Grade B: Age 24, ninth round pick in 2016 out of St. Mary’s; two-way player in college has developed well as a pro pitcher, 2.60 ERA in 128 innings between High-A and Double-A, 155/42 K/BB, 104 hits; threw 89-90 when drafted, up to mid-90s now and can touch 99-100 in short stints though more commonly 94-95 as a starter; decent curve and slider, has developed a splitter for change-up counts, throws strikes, originally viewed as a reliever but held up well under starter’s workload this year; deserves more attention than he receives; I’m not sure other analysts like him this much but I’ll stick with this for now.”
Mark wrote yesterday that he is really high on the 6’2”/180-pound right-hander. I am also and decided right then to profile him a bit although he is no longer an unknown. Gonsolin falls into the improbable category. That is, after three years as a professional it would have seemed improbable that he would be knocking on the door to MLB. Not only that, but perhaps as a starter and a ninth-round selection.
Gonsolin was selected by the Dodgers, as a pitcher, in the ninth round of the 2016 MLB First-Year Player Draft out of Saint Mary’s College, a Division I School in Moraga, California.
He was born in Vacaville, California and attended high school in Vacaville which is located roughly midway between Sacramento and San Francisco.
Following his graduation from high school Gonsolin made his way to Saint Mary’s College in 2013 with a strong high school reference from the Vacaville High School Bulldogs. As a two-way high school player, he was 4-1 as a pitcher with two saves and posted a 2.60 ERA. In 29.2 innings pitched he gave up only 20 hits and struck out 33. His work on the mound included two complete games, one of them a shutout.
At the plate as an outfielder, he hit .370 with 30 hits, 19 runs batted in and 12 stolen bases. He was named to the All Monticello Empire League team and also named an Optimist Sacramento Area All-Star as well as garnering MVP honors for the South squad in the All-Star game.
Despite his success in three years of college ball as a two-way player and also success in the 2013 and 2014 summer collegiate leagues he was not drafted. Here’s where his journey really continues with a determination that is one of those intangibles possessed by so many minor league players that turns the improbable into the possible.
His stock went up during his 2015 summer collegiate season with the Madison Mallards of the Northwoods League. Alec Dopp, reporting for the Mallards Public Relations Department, writes that Gonsolin was the first one to the ball park each day, often seven hours before game time. He was the first to hit the batting cages and the first of his teammates to partake in pre-batting practice cuts. He prepared Donnie Scott’s batting practice equipment at home plate and he shagged balls in the outfield with child-like energy and intensity for his teammates.
To backtrack a bit, I mentioned that his baseball path really continues with his near Triple Crown season with the Madison Mallards during the summer of 2015. Before his time at St. Mary’s College and his summer collegiate ball, as we might expect, there were other influences in his baseball life. The most important would be his mother who has been and continues to be his number one fan, supporter and confidant.
“He loves baseball and he’s worked very hard to get where he’s at,” said Gonsolin’s mother. “I’ve always taught him to be positive and I’ve tried to be a positive role model for him when things aren’t going his way. If he had a bad day at the plate, we’ll talk on the phone and I’ll tell him to find the positive in it. I think it’s worked for the most part.” Can you imagine the conversations on those much more frequent good days now on the mound?
Secondly, at an early age he chose his favorite player and role model as to how the game should be played and how it leads to success. The California boy did not grow up a Dodger or Giant fan. He was a New York Yankee fan, and more specifically, a Derek Jeter fan. Now many of us kind of dislike or have disliked the Yankees for some time but we all saw what Derek Jeter brought to the game. So did Tony Gonsolin.
“Honestly, as a kid I was always a fan of the Yankees because I was a Jeter fan. I grew up wanting to play shortstop and be just like him. I didn’t follow the Dodgers when I was growing up, but my favorite memory as a Dodger is winning the Low A championship and getting a ring with the Great Lakes Loons in 2016.
“I loved how he played and went about his business,” said Gonsolin of Jeter. “He was definitely a hard worker. He didn’t seem like one of the most talented people out there, but he just got it done and did things the right way. He carried himself well.”
Since debuting with the Ogden Raptors of the rookie level Pioneer League on June 30, 2016 Gonsolin has continued a steady climb through Great Lakes, Rancho Cucamonga and on to Tulsa during the 2018 season. During his first two seasons as a professional he pitched exclusively in relief but during the 2018 season with the Quakes and Drillers he made 26 appearances, all as a starter. In 9 starts with the Drillers he posted a 2.44 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP along with 49 strikeouts in 44.1 innings and 16 walks.
Gonsolin’s pitching credentials have grown as he has progressed now into his four-pitch arsenal. FanGraphs, which has included him frequently in their Five Most Compelling Fringe Prospects, also indicates that his curveball, slider and splitter (change type action) work effectively against left- handed hitters not only because of the action on the pitch but the location. However, left-handers have hit considerably better against him than right-handers.
Baseball Prospectus has defined Gonsolin as an “effectively wild fireballer”. He can hit 100 mph. He was asked if he is OK with that label. “Just the fact that I have a label excites me. I am okay with it and excited to see what it changes into as my career continues.” His almost 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio while developing his four-pitch repertoire is not all that bad but probably one he will continue to work on.
As mentioned Tony Gonsolin was named the Dodgers Minor League Pitcher of the Year for 2018. Heading into his 2016 professional debut, how probable was it that he would be the system’s Minor League pitcher of the Year two years later? In September he traveled to Dodger Stadium to receive his award along with shortstop Gavin Lux the Dodgers 2018 Minor League Player of the Year. It was his first trip to Dodger Stadium and one he wants to repeat.
“It’s incredible,” Gonsolin said. “Seeing this and experiencing the dugout and the view of what could be, it’s definitely something I want to do.”
So what is next for Tony Gonsolin? Certainly starting with the AAA Oklahoma City Dodgers to begin the 2018 season and perhaps that next look at the field from the dugout at Dodger Stadium. He is a probable candidate for a non-roster invitation to Spring Training.
Clint Evans of Dodgers Nation asked Gonsolin in September how he will know he has “made it” as a professional baseball player. Check out this answer.
I feel like it’s a process of mini “I’ve made its.” For example, getting drafted sweet, I’ve made it to pro ball. Playing in short season with the Raptors, awesome I made it to affiliate baseball. Getting promoted to Great Lakes, I’ve made it through my first promotion. So for me, there is always that next “I’ve made it” waiting for me and I want to get through as many of those as I possibly can before I can no longer play baseball anymore. Whenever that happens, then I can look back on my career and truly say “I’ve made it.”
I am a huge John Sickels fan, and have been for awhile. I think he has a tremendous pulse on prospects. Even though he mentioned in his article that the two most controversial inclusions were Tony Gonsolin and Omar Estevez, I was not at all surprised by the inclusion of Gonsolin. Placing him as a #6 also does not surprise me. He has a true 4 pitch repertoire and his splitter is a game changer.
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I thought that the exclusion of Omar Estevez from the MLB Pipeline Top 30 prospects at the beginning of 2018 was wrong headed, and a wrong that has been righted. However, Callis and Mayo are including Omar at #30 which in my mind is too low. I wasn’t sure what Estevez did wrong as a 19 year old in High A in 2017 to get booted from the list in Spring 2018, but I am very pleased that Sickels has included him in his top 10 with a B- grade.
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One other anomaly that I think will be changed over the next couple of seasons is that not one minor league reliever makes Sickels top 20. IMO the importance of top relievers is becoming more apparent at the ML level, and recognition for top relief prospects has to get noticed. Marshall Kasowski and Jordan Sheffield are two relief prospects that could very much find themselves dressed in LA Dodger blue this summer. It appears that the highest rating a reliever gets is a C+. But I was also pleasantly surprised to see Bryan Warzak make the C+ cut.
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Per Sickels, “Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.”
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What I was excited about is that Sickels has a huge selection of C+ prospects which coincides with my assessment that the organization has a lot of good players capable of reaching the ML, but lack the elite player, destined for annual AS status. There are 33 C+ prospects which may indicate that they are close to being graded out at B-.
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Other observations:
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The longer Verdugo sits in MiLB the less shiny his prospect star becomes. Sickels made a comment that in his last draft he was considering one player to move up to an A- grade, and that he was strongly considering Gavin Lux to move past Verdugo. So I like to think that Sickels has Lux as a fast moving prospect and potentially a late season add to the ML roster.
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It was refreshing to see 18 year old Miguel Vargas jump into his Top 11 with a B- grade. He wrote “…combined for 23 walks, 36 strikeouts in 200 at-bats; missed two seasons during defection process so he had some rust to work off; impressed PL observers with pure hitting skills and power potential; defense needs work but the bat is promising and has breakthrough potential; ETA 2022.”
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I was also very pleased to see 20 year old SS Jacob Amaya get placed in the top 20 with a C+ grade. Jacob has been on my personal radar (with Jeremy Arocho) since he was an 11th round draft pick in 2017. Sickels acknowledged that Amaya was a potential 3rd round pick but was destined to Cal St. Fullerton. This is a Dodgers practice of drafting a highly rated HS player in the 11th round and try to buy him out of his scholarship. They did so with AJ Alexy (2016) and then Amaya (2017). Sickels wrote this about Jacob, “hit .346/.465/.535 in 127 at-bats in Pioneer League, then .265/.390/.306 in 98 at-bats in Low-A; needs more strength but controls strike zone well and makes contact; also stole 14 bases; far more reliable than most shortstops his age and should stick at the position; ETA 2022.”
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Finally one rating that I also agree with is that DJ Peters has been dropped from Sickels’ top 10 and has a C+ grade. I am not as mesmerized by Peters’ awesome power. I prefer less power and more bat to ball skills, but sadly (for me) that does not appear to be the way the game is played today. As long as Peters is not held accountable for his high strikeout rate, he will continue to swing and miss, but will hit prodigious HRs. On the plus side, Powers is a very good defensive prospect and has good speed for a man his size.
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A very good read.
I am not sure if we have had the list of players in the Dodgers minor league system who have opted for free agency posted on LADT. In any event, here it is.
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To become eligible for free agency players must have put in seven minor league seasons.
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Two interesting ones for the Dodgers are RHP Daniel Corcino and Of Jacob Scavuzzo.
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RHP: Dylan Baker (AA)
Logan Bawcom (AAA)
Daniel Corcino (AAA)
Justin De Fratus (AAA)
Emmanuel De Leon (AAA)
Zach McAllister (AAA)
Tyler Pill (AAA)
Brian Schlitter (AAA)
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LHP: Kyle Lobstein (AAA)
Jason Richman (AA)
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C: Cael Brockmeyer (AA)
Alex Burg (AAA
Hamlet Marte (Hi A)
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2B: Angelo Mora (AAA)
Donovan Solano (AAA)
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3B: Wes Darvill (AA)
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OF: Tyler Goeddel (AAA)
Henry Ramos (AAA),
Jacob Scavuzzo (AA),
Travis Taijeron (AAA)
Corcino could find his way back in the organization (if he chooses). He has been in and out of the Dodgers organization multiple times. The FO seems to like him, and not without reason. I like Scavuzzo, but he is organizational depth at this point. The one that I will be curious to follow will be Henry Ramos. The FO seems to continually find these types of players (especially pitchers). Every year those of us who follow MiLB has to get used to new names.
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I am hopeful that the Dodgers re-sign one of Solano or Mora. I also would not mind seeing Brockmeyer back with the organization, but with the number of catchers in the organization, I find it doubtful.
Kind of a fun read:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25258102/a-blockbuster-offseason-move-all-30-teams
It has been reported that the Southern California fires have burned down Gabe Kapler’s Malibu home. Very sad!!
AC, I agree, however, many non-celebs have also lost their homes, which is also very sad.
I understand. 10% of the Butte County residences have lost their homes to the Paradise fire, and I am sure that all of them are non-celebs. I only mentioned it because Gabe is known to most on this site. These fires are heartbreaking.
Well the first dumpster dive has taken place. The Dodgers signed Kevin Quackenbush. Let the revelry begin.
OKC has to replenish the many pitchers they are losing to FA. OKC needs pitchers. It’s a minor league contract and I doubt that he sniffs the LAD dugout. But if he does, then he might be pitching well at AAA. Organizational depth.
Totally understand that, and I’m not actually opposed to the signing. He had some value at one time. I was just trying to be funny and, as my wife often reminds me, I typically fall short in my humor attempts.
Never seen Estevez play, but his numbers every year are very unimpressive. Seems like yet another Cuban with talent that just doesn’t translate into a solid player.
Very impressive glove when he got looks in spring training.
He played all season as a 20-year-old with the Quakes. I know it is a hitter’s league but it is for everyone the stats for all are relative to all.
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He hit .278 which isn’t eye popping but .308 in the 65-game second half. His 43 doubles led the league while his 84 runs batted in were third behind teammates Christian Santana and Cody Thomas. He had 15 home runs and a .336 OBP. He ranked 12th in the league in OPS and SLG. His 138 strikeouts were high but behind Santana’s 143 and Thomas’ 163 in roughly the same number of games.
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He played 63 games in the first half and 65 in the second half. In the second half he cut down his strikeouts by 20 and upped his walks by 13.
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I think he has time to grow and he has a determination to do well. In the Loons play-off run in 2016 he was a go to guy for a big hit.
As a 20 year old he was 2.3 years younger than the average California League player. He hit .278/.336/.456/.792.
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A similar middle infielder in the Dodgers far system, Drew Jackson (#19 LAD Prospect) was a #5 draft pick out of Stanford. As a 22 year old in Bakersfield, Drew hit .258/.332/.345/.678. Drew was .5 years younger than the average California League Player. As a 23 year old at Rancho, Drew hit .254/.367/.429/.796. Drew was .3 years older than the average California League Player.
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At the risk of coming across in a stereotypical fashion, Estevez is like a great many Cubans who are free swingers and need to learn plate discipline. I do not know that he ever will, but if he does, then his OBP will increase and his strikeouts will decrease.
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Is he a HOF player? No. Is he an AS? Probably not? But can he be a serviceable ML 2B/utility player? Yes.
Quackenbush has been signed to a minor league deal. These type of signings should be coming so the Dodgers pass on offering arbitration to some of the pitchers on the 40-Man like Koehler. The Dodgers have decision on Koehler, Yimi, Fields, Cingrani, Rosscup, Goedell and maybe someone I’m forgetting. Fields is the only one with a minor league option left but makes $2.4 million. The Dodgers obviously need to free up spots on the 40-Man to protect rule-5 players and other acquisitions.
Just another bargain basement signing that hopefully is a reclamation project. some upside with the signing and not much downside. I am a bit worried the FO defections might be a sign of some dysfunction?
The Dodgers were chosen the top organization in baseball a year ago. With it comes teams pulling from the Dodgers from the front office all the way down to player development and coaches.
Houston is losing personnel like crazy too. It’s a symptyom of having success. Other teams raid your people. It’s actually the opposite of disfunction… it’s a sign of a highly functional organization.
From Evan Grant:
The Rangers have named Luis Ortiz hitting coach. Comes from Los Angeles Dodgers where he was with Chris Woodward on staff.
Red Sox have extended Alex Cora – why haven’t the Dodgers figured it out with Roberts? I can’t believe they will leave him as a lame duck but they have exercised his option for 2019 and he doesn’t have any option years remaining. I wonder what the hold up is?
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Either they believe in him or they don’t. I have my reservations but he is the type of manager that the Braintrust wants – he’s young, a good communicator, positive, and willing to take direction from upstairs. Given the track record, I expect that they will extend him, but it’s taking a while.
For all who covet Realmuto for the Dodgers, this is from an article by Matthew Cerrone in New York on what it will take to pry him lose from the Fish:
“To gauge the trade value of potential Mets trade target J.T. Realmuto, I talked with multiple MLB insiders, including two agents, two league executives and three talent evaluators.
Last week, SiriusXM MLB reporter and radio Craig Misch said league sources indicated Realmuto will cost at least high-end, young pitching prospect and a position player.
The consensus I found was that the Marlins do not require a team’s top prospect, nor do they require getting back a pitcher. Instead, based on packages being prepared by organizations with interest, it’ll clearly cost one or two prospects considered to be among the Top 100 in baseball, as well as a third, mid-level prospect with significant upside.”
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“”He’s the most prominent name on the trade market, no doubt,” I was told by an NL East executive from a team with reported interest.
The same executive also noted that, because it is widely viewed that the Marlins did not get back nearly enough talent when dealing Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich last winter, they need to hit a home run in their return for Realmuto.
“He’s their last big chip,” the NL East source told me. “He’s the most valuable catcher in baseball and they can’t afford to mess it up.”
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“The above trade package points to the Braves, Astros, Phillies, and Nationals as best positioned to complete a deal with the Marlins.
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“For instance, the Braves, Nationals, A’s and Astros are all able to offer two prospects from the league’s top 40, while also having the required third prospect.
The Red Sox, Dodgers and Mets will also have interest, based on reports during the past year, but it’s hard to see how they top anything offered by the first four teams.”
I doubt the Dodgers, given the depth at that position, would do anything near that type of trade.
Nor should they!
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I like Realmuto, but K-Bear ain’t far off!
Should be interesting. Others are reporting that the Dodgers are very much in on Realmuto. Dealing Smith and hanging onto Ruiz is an option. I’d give them a nice package if they’re willing to take half of Kemp’s money for next year freeing up some money for Harper. I’m sure the Marlins thought they were getting a nice package from Milwaukee but got fleeced. They believed in Brinson and probably should have gone after Verdugo or someone else. The Marlins basically got fleeced by the Yankees for Stanton too because dumping as much money as possible was more important than getting anything in return. It may have been worth just dumping the money, but my point is they have very little to show for trading two MVP’s. If I’m the Dodgers, I’m not afraid to deal with the Marlins.
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I wonder about how much the Nationals can package now that their young players will be called upon to replace Harper. The Braves are the team that could grab him if they wanted, but I could see Grandal winding up in either of those places too. One more thing about Harper. I know it was reported what the Nats offered him, but often with the Nattie Lights it comes with a lot of differed money in the contract. So, take those numbers with a grain of salt.
I guess I’m just not a infatuated with him as others. The bright lights of LA can be daunting to some.
I would only want to go after him if they’re going to do something else bigger to put them over the top. I don’t think Realmuto alone would do that and I’m not dealing 3 top prospects if Ruiz is truly one year away. It would allow the Dodgers to take their time with Ruiz though. I think GM’s are going to be like last off-season. Other than Harper I think the numbers won’t be super inflated again and Harper is not getting $400 million like some have suggested. Three years ago this was supposed to be the mega free agent class, but since then there have been injuries to so me and some have re-signed. Right now next year’s free-agent class is much better than this year’s.
I like next year’s class as well.
Just another sign that the Ds “system” is losing some points with
those who make it their job to comment about such.
Public consensus about top-40 prospects about as reliable as
Farmer’s Almanac long-range weather:-). Sheer guesswork….
Actually, it’s an inexact science. I know people who make a great living in the stock market and others who say “It’s sheer guesswork.” You are not always right, but the teams that are right more often than not get to the Series: Astros, Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox.