I was going to write about who I thought the three top potential GM candidates might be…Josh Byrnes, Kim Ng, and Chaim Bloom. My money was on Chaim Bloom, Rays Senior VP Baseball Operations. For those who may want to know a little more about Chaim; https://www.mlb.com/rays/team/front-office/chaim-bloom.
However, I nixed that idea because Andrew has come out and said that Farhan’s duties could be assumed by existing personnel; himself, Josh Byrnes, Vice President of Baseball Operations, Alex Slater, Director of Development and Scouting, and Brandon Gomes, Director of Player Development. That has many different and believable scenarios. My favorite reason is that Andrew did not like the many lineup machinations, and the all or nothing roster with Farhan, and he wants better control as long as he is in the final year of his 5-year contract. I do not think he is in any danger of losing his job after the season, but I do not believe he likes how the last two years have turned out. I do not think he is blaming Farhan, but I do think there is a disconnect between the two. That is what I want to believe, and I am going to stick with it for now, and I am going to stick my fingers in my ears and go nah-nah-nah-nah for any other reason.
We have 4 months before pitchers and catchers are due to report to ST, so that should be sufficient time to see how this team will be constructed going forward. A review of next season’s lineups will also tell us if Friedman is more involved than I think he is. Not for a minute do I believe that Doc on his own put Kike’ batting 3rd in any WS game. There cannot have been one uniformed Dodger who agreed with that decision, including Kike’. But there were a lot of Red Sox uniformed personnel who were ecstatic.
There will be a lot of time to revisit this issue, but for today, I want to concentrate on the upcoming Rule 5 draft, and what will the Dodgers do with their personnel. Rosters have to be set by November 20, 10 days away. It is possible that there will be some lesser trades of current 40-man roster personnel that will be moved. Depending on the number of Rule 5 draft protections the Dodgers will want, there will be multiple DFA candidates.
Let’s start with the current group of eligible Rule 5 draftees:
OF – Shakir Albert
RHP – Yadier Alvarez
RHP – Isaac Anderson
1B/3B – Matt Beaty
LHP – Leo Crawford
OF – Kyle Garlick
C/1B – Garrett Hope
SS/2B – Drew Jackson
1B/3B – Connor Joe
OF – Logan Landon
RHP – Nolan Long
IF – Gersel Pitre
1B/3B – Edwin Rios
C – Keibert Ruiz
3B/1B – Cristian Santana
RHP – Josh Sborz
RHP – Andrew Sopko
3B – Jefrey Souffront
RHP – Shea Spitzbarth
IF – Jared Walker
When looking at the potential draftees, you must consider whether the player will have an impact on the ML roster within the next three years. Three options, three years. However, most evaluate whether the player can have an impact within the next year or two at the outside as there will be others coming up behind them. Therefore, I will look at this exercise as to who I believe may have a plus impact in either 2020 or 2021, and that there will not be anyone a year or two behind who can replace them.
I am going out on the limb and saying that the Dodgers will protect at least 4 and maybe as many as 7. That is a lot, and that will mean a lot of current 40-man players will not be with the team on November 20.
There is the obvious one…Keibert Ruiz. He will absolutely be protected. He is a catcher of the future. We may disagree as to when the future comes, but it is coming, and he is very much in the Dodger plans. We can also disagree as to whether Ruiz should be considered the #1 catcher prospect or Will Smith. Smith has another year before he needs to be protected, but he may be closer to the roster than Ruiz. If the Dodgers are successful in trading for Realmuto, one of Ruiz or Smith will be included in the return.
Yadier Alvarez – The Dodgers have not put up with his immature nonsense and held on to him if they did not believe in his potential. I do think his highest value may be in the bullpen as I do not think his head can stay in the game long enough to be a starter, but he has the arm to be a devastating late inning high leverage reliever. He will be protected.
Edwin Rios – I do not think the Dodgers need another LHH 1B, but he has some very good offensive skills that need to be protected. For 2018 at AAA, Edwin batted .304/.355/.482/.837. For his career, Edwin his batting .302/.351/.528/.879. The one drop-off was his HR numbers from prior years. But that is probably more due to his late start because of injury, and not getting back on track power wise. If for no other reason in that he can be traded to an AL team, Edwin Rios will be protected.
Josh Sborz – Josh wasted (IMO) a couple of years trying to prove he can be a starting pitcher. That experiment failed, and Josh went back to what he should have stayed at all along, a high leverage late inning reliever. The Dodgers are making the reliever a priority, so Josh will get a longer look. I believe he will be protected with the intent that he will start the year at OKC and be in a position to help the team some point in 2019.
Now for the who knows…maybe…I don’t know group:
Drew Jackson – Another in a long line of super utility players who can play middle infield. He will never hit enough to be a regular, but as a utility player he will be fine. For 2017 he played 2B, SS, and CF for Tulsa. He has an absolute cannon for an arm, and he can run with the best in the organization. He could and will be protected on the AAA roster. That does not protect him from the ML Rule 5 draft, so it would have to be a team that would keep him on the ML roster for the full year. He is borderline.
Matt Beaty – Matt is a corner infield/outfield prospect. He was the Texas League Player of the Year in 2017 and was out most of 2018 because of injury. He did come back at the end of the AAA season and put up respectable numbers. But will it be enough to entice another team to draft and hold him for all of 2019 on the 25 man roster? I believe the Dodgers want to keep him but are willing to gamble that no other team will pick him up. Another consideration in this exercise as to whether Beaty is protected or not is Connor Joe.
Connor Joe – Joe really came into his own this year. He was a previous compensatory round draft pick by the Pirates and traded to Atlanta for Sean Rodriguez in 2017. After the 2017 season, the Braves traded Joe to LAD for future considerations. It is easy to think that Joe never approached his expectations, but something kicked in in 2018. For the season he batted .299/.408/.527/.935 in 436 PA. He had 17 HRs, 26, DBLs, 55 RBIs, with a 20% K rate. He is probably rated a better defensive 3B/1B than Beaty.
All of the three above are roughly the same age. All three are utility type players. Do they protect one of them, 2 of them, all 3, or none of them? The one most likely to be selected would be Connor Joe. If the Dodgers dare to protect 5, I think it would be Joe and hold out hope that the other two would not be drafted.
None of the other players will be protected even if the Dodgers want to retain them. In this group is Cristian Santana, Leo Crawford, Andrew Sopko, Nolan, Long, Shea Spitzbarth, Jared Walker. There is virtually no chance that any of these players will be selected and remain on the 25 man for a full year. They will all be protected on the MiLB portion of the draft, as will some of the others above.
Now how do they get down to 36 or 35 or 34 by 11/20. With the release of Chase Utley, the Dodgers now have 38 on the roster. Have they heard whether Grandal and/or Ryu will be accepting the QO? If both do, that brings the roster full. For this exercise, I am going to assume that both will be accepting the QO (even though I do not believe either will) as that is how one needs to plan.
I think there is a good possibility that Brock Stewart will be traded for a low level lottery pick before 11/20 to create one opening. He has no chance of making the 25-man roster, and he is out of options. If he is not tradeable, then I see him as a DFA candidate.
Other players on the 40-man roster without any remaining options include: Tom Koehler, Erik Goeddel, Yimi Garcia, Zac Rosscup, and JT Chargois. I think the FO will rate those from 1 to 5 and will DFA as many as they need to in order to protect their preferred number of Rule 5 draftees. I am not going to rate them. Everyone will have a different preferential order.
If Grandal does accept his QO, I believe that will make Rocky Gale a DFA candidate and I do believe someone will pick him up.
The first domino will drop by 2:00 PM PT on Monday, the QO acceptance deadline. Will the Dodgers have 38, 39, or 40 on the roster? Then there will be 8 days remaining to plan for the roster makeup, including the protection of some of the Rule 5 eligible draftees.
That’s a heck of a good briefing, AC.
Very nice, well thought out. Let’s see what happens.
The addition of two solid righty bats that play the infield/catcher from two of Machado, Realmuto, or Goldschmidt should allow Bellinger and Pederson to hit against lefties much more often and still have a potent offense against lefties. Combine those two righty additions with trading Taylor, Kemp, and Puig and suddenly Roberts has less flexibility and perceived need to platoon.
Trading Puig, Taylor, Barnes, Muncy, Stripling, Ruiz, and a few others for Goldschmidt and Realmuto would free up at least 4 spots on the 40. While that won’t happen before the Rule 5 draft, it would help decide who is protected from the Rule 5 draft.
AC, for my next Blog (and I alluded to it last night) when I said: “Now that Zaidi is gone, I wonder if Friedman will wait and see what Roberts does before signing him to a new deal… that, and his old buddy, Joe Maddon will be Free at last!”
–
I think we have arrived at the same conclusion (and this is not anything we have talked about). Friedman is not a micro-manager and maybe Zaidi and Friedman did disagree on the lineups being pushed on Roberts. I think Andrew intends to put more of his “STAMP” on this team than in the past.
–
I also think there will be some trades in the next ten days, if only to relieve “congestion” in anticipation of Rule 5. Stweart, Rosscup, Chargois, Garcia and others, including Rios and Joe could be moved in deals. Of course GM’s aren’t dumb, so they are not going to trade for someone you might DFA.
–
Great Blog again. I know how much effort and research that takes. Thyat’s why DC and I pay you the big bucks! 😉
I dont like Maddon as a manager
MACHADO AND REALMUTO OR GOLDSHMIT AND REALMUTO WOULD BE PERFECT OPTIONS BUT I CAN SEE THAT REAL HAPPEN
I HOPE ALL THE PLANTON AND CRAZY SWINGS STRATEGY END WITH FARHAN GONE. AND DODGERS BACK TO BE A TEAM WHICH IS FUN TO SEE PLAY
AC – Great list… This is when I’m happy to be a retired aerospace worker and not in some war room figuring out who stays and who goes..
Seeing a few land at Rancho and seeing their tools makes it even rougher…
Has anyone in the AZ group said that Goldschmidt is available??? To me he is/should be an untouchable type player for them…
It is hotly rumored that Goldy will be available depending on whether Corbin and Pollock accept their QO. If they do not (as expected) then it is likely that AZ will look to trade Goldy one year before he hits FA. But if he is available it will not be to the Dodgers.
I agree that it is rare to trade within a team’s own Division especially a popular player. But Goldschmidt most likely will be lost to AZ as a free agent as soon as the 2019 season is over anyway and become a Dodger then. A bigger question is whether the Dodgers would take on Greinke’s contract to make the Goldschmidt trade happen. I never let probabilities stand in the way of suggesting provocative trade ideas.
Pete,
–
Your resume should read “Retired Rocket Scientist!”
–
That has a better ring to it!
Don’t bet on any of the other teams in the division trading their face of the franchise to the Dodgers. Goldy, as much as I love him, isn’t going to be wearing Dodger Blue next year. I agree wholeheartedly with AC on this point. I would also like to believe that Farhan was the culprit in over-managing the in game decisions. The list of Rule 5 guys is impressive. I think one of the protected guys will be Christian Santana. There is a lot of work to do on the trade front and this is where Freedman excels. I’m excited to see what he comes up with.
I don’t think C. Santana will be protected. No one is going to keep him on the Roster all year when he just need to play. He’s likely 3 years away.
–
I also agree that the D-Bags would not trade Goldy to the Dodgers unless they got Urias, Buehler, Bellinger, Ruiz and Verdugo!
That sounds about right.
Great work AC. I think you have hit it right on. Rios, Alvarez, Keibert and Sborz are more than likely the only ones who may be included on the 40-man roster. However, I think Rios in due course will be traded to free up 40-man roster space and has trade value.
.
The only other possibility might be Connor Joe but I don’t expect him to be protected. I would not be surprised to see him claimed in the Rule 5 Draft if not traded before then.
.
It will be interesting who the Dodgers might claim in the minor league portion of Rule 5 from players left off minor league reserve lists.
I agree that Connor Joe could be selected in the Rule 5 draft if not protected. The Dodgers have room to protect Joe if they want, and I hope they do. But it is a borderline decision. I think he is a better version of Rob Segedin.
Good takes AC! Thanks for answering my Kluber trade question yesterday, I was watching the USC game (tale of 2 halves) and didn’t see your response until this morning. I agree if Goldy is made available it won’t be to the Dodgers. If the team signs DJ to play 2B I would be surprised but pleasantly so. Top trade candidates to me are Kluber and Realmuto and the Dodgers have the pieces to make both work. 2B and setup probably come from within the organization. This may be another tinker around the margins off season but a couple splash trades would get the competitive juices flowing for me at least. The QO decisions tomorrow and Rule 5 roster moves will be the first dominoes to fall, could be a lot more interesting at the Winter Meetings this year.
I was on suicide watch after the SC game. You think Dodger fans may be harsh, they are nothing compared to ANGRY Trojan fans.
Totally agree. Far too much talent to see this type of performance week after week. I think we are watching the last of Helton’s days at SC.
That turnover right before halftime when thy were about to go up 21-0 was a killer. The breakdown of pass protection in the 2nd half was ridiculous. Can’t abandon the running game and the wild snap that ended up a safety was the start of Cal’s comeback.
Good job AC! Great information and analysis.
.
I think the FO will revert to a group of platoon players who can play several different positions. How they’re used will, of course, depend on who’s pitching for the other FO. 🙂
.
Not necessarily a must do situation, but I would like to see them be able to keep Chargois and Goeddel. I thought both had potential and when on, were very good.
.
I also think we’ll see some activity involving the major league roster between now and the end of the year. I hope that both Grandal and Ryu move on. If Ryu accepts that should or could mean the end Woods as a Dodger.
Shea Spitzbarth has been a favorite of mine since he went undrafted in 2015 and the Dodgers signed him as a free agent. He has surpassed quite a few drafted players. If not traded I expect this time in 2019 he will have tp be protected.
Another good job AC!
I think Friedman is different from Zaidi, because he is the first guy who gave Joe Maddon a manager’s job, and I don’t think Friedman tried to micro manage, Maddon.
I feel that way, because although Maddon does platoon he will also call a bunt if he sees fit, a bunt will get the job done.
And we know how sabers hate bunts, because a bunt is giving away an out.
I don’t know why some want to trade Puig to get a right hand bat.
That is defeating the purpose, especially after Puig stepped up in the post season, when so many other players didn’t.
Some should take a look at Puig’s numbers against righties this year, because I think some would be really surprised, on how well Puig’s hit against righties, this year.
And some of Puig’s biggest hits in the post season were against lefties, so maybe he is turning the corner against lefties, and he will be able to hit lefties better next year, like he did earlier in his career.
Like I have said before, I don’t like when Puig doesn’t throw the ball to the cut off man, because I know he knows better.
But Cody did this twice in the post season, and I know Cody doesn’t usually do something like this, but he probably just got caught up in the moment.
Maybe that is why Puig continues to do this at times too.
When we make a trade, it should be about doing what is best for the team, and we need a much more better balanced line up next year.
Because that lack of balance we had in our line up this last year, is the reason the offense was not consistent, most of the year.
And that was the same reason our offense in the World Series was so easy to contain.
One of the reasons you would trade Yasiel is because he has trade value, and if you want something, you are going to have to give up something. Either you should extend Puig or move him before he becomes a FA. How stupid were the Nats not taking Houston’s or the Dodgers offer, and are now stuck with a 4th round compensatory pick for Harper because they were over the competitive balance tax threshold. That could be where the Dodgers will be next year with Puig if they dare to go beyond the threshold. Friedman did do some extensions in Tampa, but thus far has not with LAD.
.
I do not think Puig gets traded if the Dodgers are not going to sign Harper (and I do not think they will). But I would include him in a trade if it helped to get Jean Segura or Corey Kluber.
AC
I understand that.
My reply had nothing to do with any of your ideas, because you haven’t been a big proponent either way, on Puig.
I think all of your ideas have good merit.
It was more a reply to some that want to trade him every year, to get a rightie bat.
But if the Dodgers were thinking about trading Puig, do you think it would be better to trade Puig in the off season, or at the trade deadline?
I think that may be the thing to talk about, when it comes to Puig.
MJ, for the most part the people who don’t like Puig are going to include him in deals and those who like him are not. You’re correct he had a +142 Wrc against righties last season which made him 12th best in the majors. If Harper were to be signed he should play LF not RF if you believe in defensive metrics. It’s time for Joc/Kemp to move on. They may not be able to move Kemp but I would take whatever they can get in contract relief even if that’s 25 cents on the dollar. They were willing to release him last season until he surprised them. I think Kemp can be productive if not overused but the fact that he didn’t even start against Price tells you what they think of his abilities while they continue to overvalue Kike’s.
AC: Would you include Puig in a trade if we could get Merrifield and Perez in a blockbuster?
Yes!!
Ask yourself why the Royals want a guy making that much next season when they are trying to shed salary. Plus, Puig will only have one year left on his deal.
Or go another route and trade for Realmuto along with Castro’s salary(11.8MM). In takimg on Castro’s salary it should lessen the amount of prospects going to Miami. We could start the package with Joc, Smith, Locastro, Wood, Kendall, etc
I think you are on to something, Richie Rich.
–
How about this:
–
Dodgers trade Brock Stewart, Enrique Hernandez, Yasiel Puig, Will Smith, Tim Locastro, Jeren Kendall, Christian Santana, Edwin Rios and Mitchell White to the Marlins for JT Realmuto, Martin Prado and Starlin Castro. 9 for 3!
–
The Marlins dump salary and the Dodgers get some good stuff.
–
Next, the Dodgers trade Max Muncy, Matt Beaty and Alex Wood for Jose Abreu.
–
Look at this lineup:
–
1. Verdugo RF
2. Turner 3B
3. Seager SS
4. Abreu 1B
5. Bellinger CF
6. Realmuto C
7. Kemp/Toles LF
8 Castro 2B
–
Bench: Prado, Barnes, Taylor
Have you sent Joc back to the minors? Bum won’t be happy.
And where is Freeze?
Hey Mark,
`
Neither of those articles from yesterday on Guggenheim disclosed any unhappiness.
`
Where did you hear it? I know some lawyers who get good Guggenheim insight and they never talk about unhappiness. Lots of talk about Security Benefit being a ponzi scheme, but not about the partners disagreeing about the team.
Bluto,
–
Some of it I can’t say, but try this:
–
https://www.wsj.com/articles/guggenheim-partners-asset-management-unit-is-under-sec-investigation-sources-say-1523790120
–
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-05/the-guggenheim-wars-internal-revolt-said-to-split-boutique-firm (Watch the video)
–
https://www.ft.com/content/05d0fea6-ca52-11e8-9fe5-24ad351828ab
–
https://www.barrons.com/articles/suits-dog-guggenheim-chief-1494045752
–
You have to put some pieces together. Nothing can be proved… yet! But, it’s a mess.
–
Let me check… maybe I can tell you more. I think AC has some insight too…
Oh.
`
I know all that stuff, but from what I hear Boehly isn’t as pure as the driven snow in many of these things and he’s Walter’s guy.
`
At least from what I’ve heard.
Mark, I would do that trade. Throw Joc in on the trade. Now, Doc has to play that line up every day. Just platoon Kemp and Toles.
The prince of putting it to words has spoken and I now have a clear view. With that I can only just let the wind blow and see what tomorrow brings. At least I know what’s on the menu.
Another great post by AC!
–
Hey Mark… I know this is a labor of love for you guys… but have you ever thought of putting a donation button somewhere on the blog? Some of these posts… especially the ones covering the minor league side of things have been fantastic. I can only imagine the time and effort that goes into it all. Anyway… I’m sure a lot of visitors to the blog would be open to donating a few bucks here and there if it was a possibility… just a thought.
Val,
–
Thanks for the kind words and if AC and DC wanted to do that, I would be all in and they could have it all. When I started LA DodgerTalk almost 20 years ago, I could have used the money, but now it’s not anything I am interested in. A few weeks ago, someone hacked the site and put up ads… for which they were getting paid (I know who it was), so I put in an extra layer of security.
–
This site could generate $1200 or so a month from ads and if AC/DC want to do that, I’m down. Up to now, it has been a labor of love. I don’t want to be a journalist… and God knows… I’m not. AC and DC are much more eloquent than me…. they will make a cogent argument – I just punch people in the mouth! 😉
–
Several years ago, Tony Jackson and I attempted to make a pay site, but it didn’t pan out…
Yeah, a pay site would be difficult. But something like a button that gives you an option to donate a little cash if you appreciate the blog… might not be a bad idea.
–
Either way though… thanks to the three of you for posting new content each day, it’s been great all year.
WOW! I like your lineup Mark! Please make it happen!
Felix Hernandez is available?
I saw Felix Hernandez as a 19 year in Sacramento when he was playing for Tacoma. It was one of the best pitching performances I have ever had the pleasure of seeing.
.
But he is not nearly close to being that pitcher. He is a $25MM pitcher with an old and undoubtedly hurt arm.
No to Felix. He is on the down hill slide. Now James Paxton is another story.
I would re-sign Ryu to 3 years/$36 million (or so). Then I would sign Kurt Suzuki to a one year deal to give Will Smith more time to develop.
Then I would make the following trades:
Diego Cartaya, Alex Wood, Kenta Maeda, Yasiel Puig, Dennis Santana, and Edwin Rios to Cleveland for Corey Kluber AND Brad Hand. That’s giving up a lot, but how great would Kluber and Hand be? Think they could have used Hand in the World Series?
Julio Urias, Keibert Ruiz, Joc Pedersen, and Braydon Fisher to Anaheim for Mike Trout. Again, giving up a lot, but Trout’s bat could put them over the top. I would also extend him 4 years.
Check out this lineup:
RH – Alex Verdugo – LH
CF – Mike Trout – RH
SS – Corey Seager – LH
3B – Justin Turner – RH
1B – Cody Bellinger – LH
LF – Matt Kemp – RH
2B – Taylor/Kike – RH
C – Kurt Suzuki – RH
P –
In my opinion the best lineup in MLB. I see balance, power, high OBP, OPS, speed, and good defense. Certainly could compete the the BoSox for the World Series trophy.
Here’s the rotation:
RH – Corey Kluber
LH – Clayton Kershaw
RH – Striker Buehler
LH – Rich Hill
LH – Hyun Jin Ryu
RH – Ross Stripling
Best rotation in baseball?
Bullpen:
RH – Kenley Jansen
LH – Brad Hand
RH – Pedro Baez
RH – Yimi Garcia
LH – Scott Alexander
LH – Caleb Ferguson
RH – Tom Koehler
RH – Brock Stewart
RH – Dylan Floro
Power, talent, innings eaters. Is there a better bully?
The minors would still have Dustin May, Gavin Lux, Will Smith, Mitchell White, DJ Peters, Yadier Alvarez, Miachael Grove, Tony Gonsolin, Edwin Uceta, Connor Wong, and Jordan Sheffield. There’s still a lot of quality SP, RP, and position players there. Also, the Dodgers would have four 2019 draft picks in the first two rounds to help re-stock the farm.
I don’t have the time or interest to do a payroll analysis. The Dodgers would certainly be picking up some salary committments in Trout, Kluber, and Hand, but they would also unload some in Wood, Maeda, Puig, and Pedersen.
Just food for thought.