From Here on, It’s a Crapshoot!

Posted By on September 28, 2025

The Los Angeles Dodgers won the World Series in 2024. It is tough in the modern era to win it two years in a row. In fact, it has not been done in 25 years. The Dodgers have a shot, but it is much more difficult this time around. Everyone has analytics and scouting. It’s a chess match, and it’s never been harder to win back-to-back than now.

That said, the Dodgers have the best chance of winning another World Series. However, baseball is a crazy game. A hitter can check his swing and hit an “excuse me” triple that scores multiple runs. Or, a hitter can hit the ball right on the screws at 109 MPH and hit into a triple play. That is what is maddening and awesome about baseball. I happen to like the Dodgers’ chances… but you never know. This is baseball.

What I do know is that if the Dodgers don’t win the World Series, most will blame Andrew Freidmen or Dave Roberts! “There’s no such thing as a crapshoot! “Friedman should have signed Mantale, Mays, Clemnete, Drysdaye. Koufax and Gibson. He’s a bum!”

Play ball!

https://twitter.com/StephenNelson/status/1972365258527539310

This article has 89 Comments

  2. Mark,
    So if you read the summary of the Mets loss. Alonso, with bags full, hits his hardest shot of the year. 116mph in the gap. but its caught.
    As you said. Its a crap shoot

    1. Probably no fans are as disappointed as the Mets fans.
      Cohen spends a fortune on Soto… and they don’t make the playoffs.
      The season has produced a lot of surprises.
      One national baseball scribe had predicted that the World Series would pit the Braves against the Orioles–and both talented teams flopped. And who expected the Brewers to wind up with the best record? Hope springs eternae overachieving Reds and Indians.
      When the Dodgers allegedly “won the winter” to build a superteam, critics wailed, “The Dodgers are ruining baseball.”
      Let’s hope for more wailing through October.

  4. A crapshoot….
    But the dice should be loaded in the Dodgers’ favor.
    On paper, where the games aren’t played, the Dodgers are still a powerhouse–especially if Will and Max get back into action.
    The bullpen is a reason for concern, but Sheehan, Kershaw and Sasaki are leading the cavalry. For that matter, it looks like Glasnow could come out of the pen against the underdog Reds.

    1. I think that is precisely it. You nailed it:
      “A Crapshoot with the dice loaded in the Dodgers’ favor.”

  5. Its not a crapshoot. If it were, the Dodgers wouldn’t be spending a half billion on players this year.

    Talent matters. It is not always the final determining factor, but if talent didn’t matter then the Dodgers could shoot to win 90 games every year – just enough to get into the playoffs.

    The front office doesn’t believe that it’s only a crapshoot. They accumulated as much talent as they could to give the Dodgers the best chance to win.

    They arguably did not do enough to buttress this team’s most obvious weakness, the bullpen. They got 4 poorly pitched games from Brock Stewart after the deadline. Stewart should have had several red flags flying from his pitching arm. He had his shoulder scoped in August 24. This year he made more appearances than at any time in his career. Someone missed something on an MRI.

    No, it’s not a crapshoot. Talent still matters,and the Dodgers have more than any team in baseball. Will that be enough? Who knows.

    1. Based on the actual meaning of the word it IS a crapshoot. But some teams have more chips to play with than others (talent)). But with more players (teams) in the mix there are more possible outcomes therefore lowering the chances of the teams with the most chips of winning said crapshoot.

      1. Exactly.

        I think that Doc never went to the whip this year.

        The brass knew that this veteran team would respond when needed. after all… It’s when you get hot that matters, and the Dodgers got hot in mid-September. Look at the records this September:

        Sept

    2. BTW, I am 4.5 weeks post op on my shoulder replacement and doing quite well. The range of motion is coming back, and I can raise it 110 degrees. Rehab is not fun. I am telling you this because I had multiple X-rays, CT scans, and MRIs of my shoulder, and they still missed that my rotator cuff was very frayed and a tendon needed to be grafted. They fixed that as well. I asked my surgeon (who only does shoulders and elbows and TJ) and he said that “the scans just establish a baseline. It’s almost always different once you get inside.” I presume it is similar with what Brock had.
      Arm

        1. Thank you.

          We had a skilled finish carpenter from Nicaragua who became a citizen a year ago, build it. I think that in the last three years, he has worked over 400 days for us. He is currently building out my wife’s new restaurant. Jorge is part of the family and is becoming proficient in English.
          https://www.facebook.com/letseat.lolastable/

          1. Congrats to Jorge and family and kudos to you for helping him become an American citizen by providing employment and obviously encouragement Win-win for him, you and America. Well done Mark.

    3. In team building, talent is one way to hedge against randomness. The FO tried hard to build a bullet proof bullpen, but that’s one of the most fickle parts of any team. The combination of down seasons and injuries with the relievers is somewhat comparable to last year’s rotation. Duct tape and bailing wire somehow got it done.

      I wouldn’t be shocked to see Treinen and Scott in the front half of the pen with Sheehan, Vesia, Henriquez, Dreyer and Sasaki in leverage spots. They have talent, but where is their mindset? Some of the “kids” might have learned to be afraid yet!

      However it shakes out, We’ll have hair raising baseball to watch!

    4. Everything isn’t BINARY.

      It’s not talent or luck. It’s both, and the impact of luck is out of scope in. the MLB playoffs.

      This is statistically proven.

      You need talent to get to the crapshoot part, thus you need talent to win.

      When Aaron Judge drops a flyball, or when Brent Honeywell performs beyond his station…. They both have talent, but shit happens.

  6. without home field advantage , the road to a championship is a little harder. That’s if they beat the Reds. now i totally expect them to beat the reds and advance to meet the phillies, but it’s baseball and anything is possible. it seems they rediscovered their swagger in seattle. Wow what a difference in this team when the bullpen does its job! … If Kike was a .280 hitter with his defense? it’s october time for sure! if he was only a .280 hitter! …. Clayton was fabulous yesterday! 7 k’s , 1 bb! One thing. Thought Freddie coming out to get Kersh was great! But maybe Doc should have sent Max with him. after all, max has been with Clayton a long time. not nitpicking, but max deserved a little consideration for that too!……. sure wish joe davis and Hershiser would have done the game yesterday! …. once again, Landon Knack was excellent yesterday. Looking forward to next season’s battle for a starting job with the dodgers! Knack, Sheehan, Gavin Stone, River Ryan. Oh and Gonsolin too! lots of candidates, only one spot open! If only the bullpen could be that easy! But after what we’ve seen out of Emmit, He’s the number 5. Probably number 2or 3 on any other team in baseball. …. Playoffs start tomorrow! Lets enjoy the ride! i plan on being happy till the end of the season!

    1. Catman needs to recover, have a great spring, just so we can trade/sell him. He is superfluous for us now.

      1. Tony Gonsolin underwent elbow surgery in August 2025, and his projected recovery timeline is 8 to 10 months. This means he is not expected to return until sometime in the summer of 2026. He will be lucky to pitch in MLB next year. He is a free agent in 2027. I doubt we can trade him.

    2. Kike has a .278 BA with an .874 OPS in the playoffs to go with 15 HR. He is Mr. October. He will play a lot!

      2. He shouldn’t be waived but he should have been put on the bench for Dulin. Dulin wouldn’t have held on the TD. He’s a hell of a blocker at WR. Mitchell has #1WR talent but #5 WR brain and effort. Pierce must be re-signed. Mitchell failed his big audition for Pierce’s spot next year.

        The Colts on the road while being the more injured team really just gave away the game against one of the top 7 teams in the NFL. If I were to choose a game to lose it would have been that one.

        Xavier Howard needs to be replaced. The OPI on Warren was horseshit.

  8. Dodgers vs Reds…. LA
    Cubs vs Assholes… CHI
    Yankees vs Red Sox… NYY
    Guardians vs Tigers… CLE

    Dodgers vs Phillies….. LA
    Cubs vs Brewers…….. CHI
    Yankees vs Bluejays… TOR
    Guardians vs Mariners… CLE

    Toronto vs Cleveland…..Toronto
    Dodgers vs Chicago….. LA

    Toronto vs LA…… DODGERS!

    I bet $10 dollars.

  9. It’s all about sequencing. Yes, this year will be harder than last year, because 13 victories are required. Win 2, before losing 2. Win 3 before losing 3. 2 * (Win 4, before losing 4). Et voila. 3, 5, 7, & 7 games, 22 total. I haven’t verified this, but I’d bet every team in baseball went 13-9 in one 22 game stretch of the season. That is with random competition of course. In the playoffs, it’s everyone’s best, all the time.

    I’d bet LAD will ride the starters hard if they’re dealing. No sense saving bullets now. Yamamoto, Ohtani, Snell, Glasnow, in some order, is pretty fierce talent wise.

    The bullpen could be dynamite; good or bad. The starters and lineup could make it easier, but the margins for victories seem to shrink in the playoffs.

    I think the psychological effect of Clayton retiring is bringing the team together in just the right way, at just the right time. The talent, will, motivation, and vision are all there. They’ve learned how the playoffs work over the last few seasons. Doubling down on focus and intensity worked wonders last year.

    LFGD!

  10. Porpoise Boy, sorry, I cant agree with you on trading Gonsolin for two reasons: 1st, look at his numbers prior to injury, ace level stuff, 2nd, understanding the risk to his career, he continued to pitch because he knew we were without other options at the time. That is an unusual level of team mentality when millions are at stake in terms of future contracts for players these days. I hope we keep him.

    1. Bah! Never was sold on him, never will be. But then I never trust dudes who prefer cats over dogs. If he does not pitch next year, I hope he comes back strong in ’27 so we have trade bait. He was really good for a microsecond.
      Each to their own.
      Cheers

  11. Loved Kersh not giving the ball to Freddie. Reds will not just roll over for LA; they are young and have nothing to lose. Beating the Dodgers would be a huge feather in their cap. Not having to listen to Mendoza is a blessing. She just prattles on too much. Interview with Kersh’s wife and kids was cute. Good to see AJ and Honey at the game in support of Kersh. AJ looking well even if he does work for the Padres. Always thought that Ellis would be a very good manager someday, seems that is not his area of interest. Glad you are doing well Mark.

  12. So if this is really just a crapshoot, why spend a half billion dollars on payroll? Talent really doesn’t matter at all in the post-season – it’s really all a matter of chance? This makes no sense at all. The oddsmakers disagree with you and their livelihood depends on being right.

    1. Bluto explained best.
      It takes talent to get to the crapshoot part of the season. Having to win 85-90 games at an over 50% rate is unlikely to be won by chance/luck. The same cannot be said of winning 11-13 games using the same premise.

      1. It’s NOT fucking binary. It’s not ALL luck, or ALL talent.

        Nobody, except Dodgerrick, is saying talent really doesn’t matter.

        Nobody, except Dodgerrick in this thread, is saying it’s ALL a matter of chance.

        And luck is a nebulous and obviously random factor. You cannot plan on it or against it, all you can do is build the best team you can. Make the playoffs, hope they playoffs go well.

        What if luck affects both teams in a series in similar manners (staying away from quantifying.)
        What if no external factors are in play, then talent is even more important.

        1. A crapshoot is, by definition all luck. Unless you use loaded dice. So all who say the postseason is a crapshoot are, by using this analogy, saying that it is all luck. Words matter.

          1. Here are two (2) definitions of crapshoot, both are a very far cry from “all luck”, and neither come close to that conclusion

            Miriam-Webster:
            https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/crapshoot

            Something (such as a business venture) that has an unpredictable outcome

            Cambridge:
            https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/crapshoot

            Something whose result could be good or bad but is impossible to predict or control, because so much chance is involved:

            Words do matter, using them correctly is great!

          2. It originates with shooting craps. The odds of winning vary dependent on type of bet, but basic come or pass line bet odds are slightly over 49%. Or as bluto put it uncertain. Talent is the part that puts your odds over to be in your favor. The more teams in the mix the more diluted your advantage of talent matters. Remembering in baseball winning at a 60%+ clip makes you a stud team. The 4 out of 10 you are going to lose could be the first four. Or in our case first two.

  13. i wouldn’t count my chickens just yet Bear! she said yesterday she’s not sure where they are sending her to cover a game. hopefully it’s somewhere in norway! i agree with an earlier post .Alana Rizzo? yeah, she would be just fine! Mendoza seems to bring out the “goofy “ in nellson. just my 2 cents. K. Watson is getting better every season. enjoyed her interviews over the weekend. I guess i should also say that there are many male analysts i can’t listen to on tv and the radio. 2 guys theat were very good in the studio, awful play by play guys, Ernie Johnson and Musberger! love E. johnson as a host, but man he’s not very good at baseball play by play. i guess Vin spoiled us all!

  15. So, let’s settle this with ChatGPT:

    Me: Could it be said that MLB playoffs are a crapshoot?

    ChatGPT: Yes—it’s fair to say that MLB playoffs are often described as a “crapshoot”, and here’s why:

    1. Small Sample Size

    The regular season is 162 games—long enough for true talent levels to shine through. The playoffs, by contrast, are made up of short series (best-of-3, best-of-5, best-of-7). In such small samples, randomness, hot streaks, or one key mistake can outweigh the larger picture of who’s actually the “better” team.

    2. Pitching Matchups

    In October, rotations tighten. A team with two elite starters (say, 2014 Giants with Bumgarner, or 2001 Diamondbacks with Johnson & Schilling) can neutralize a 100-win club that had more depth but less top-end dominance.

    3. Variance of Hitting

    Even MVP-caliber hitters can slump over a week. Because runs are scarce in October—when facing aces and bullpens stacked with relievers throwing 98+—one or two timely hits often swing entire series.

    4. Wild Card Chaos

    The addition of Wild Card games (and now series) means that teams barely above .500 can knock out division winners. A hot Wild Card team with momentum can ride that wave all the way to the World Series (see: 2019 Nationals, 2014 Giants, 2011 Cardinals).

    5. Historical Evidence

    The team with the best regular-season record (the “favorite”) wins the World Series far less often than you’d expect—historically under 25%.

    In fact, wild card teams have won the World Series more often than 100-win teams in the Wild Card era.

    Dynasties like the late-1990s Yankees are the exception, not the rule.

    Bottom line:
    Calling the MLB playoffs a “crapshoot” isn’t an insult—it’s an acknowledgment that variance, matchups, and timing play a much larger role than in the marathon of the regular season. Talent still matters, but luck, health, and hot streaks matter a lot more.

    Would you like me to back this up with some stats—for example, how often the team with the best record actually wins it all?

    Me: Yes

    ChatGPT: Got it. Let’s look at the historical record of the best team (by regular-season record) winning the World Series:

    Since the Wild Card Era (1995–2024)

    30 postseasons, 11 best-record teams reached the World Series, and only 5 actually won it.

    Winners: 1998 Yankees, 2007 Red Sox, 2009 Yankees, 2016 Cubs, 2018 Red Sox.

    That’s about 17% of the time (5 out of 30).

    Postseason Expansion Effect

    With extra Wild Cards (2012 onward, and again in 2022), the odds got worse. More teams → more randomness.

    Example: In 2022, the 111-win Dodgers lost in the NLDS; in 2023, the 104-win Braves lost in the NLDS.

    Long-Term Perspective

    In MLB history (1903–2024), the team with the best record has won the World Series only about 25–30% of the time.

    Compare that to the NBA and NFL, where top seeds win championships much more often (NBA top seed: ~50%, NFL #1 seed: ~35%).

    Wild Card Success

    Wild Cards have won the World Series 7 times since 1995 (Marlins ’97 & ’03, Angels ’02, Red Sox ’04, Cardinals ’11, Giants ’14, Nationals ’19).

    That’s nearly as many championships as best-record teams in the same span.

    Summary:

    Best-record team wins: ~17% in Wild Card era.

    Wild Card wins: ~23% in Wild Card era.

    That’s why people say the MLB playoffs are a crapshoot—the “best” team is more likely to lose than win it all.

          1. You don’t trust Rob Gronkowski?
            I forget which program Elon Musk owns, but it has produced some pretty funny stuff when asked about Elon.
            To everyone in love with the “crapshoot” metaphor, I don’t think it’s a matter of chance that Skubal, Crochet and Snell have rolled the hottest dice today. Max Fried too–but he got pulled before the Red Sox engineered the day’s biggest upset. (The chances of a Dodgers-Yankees rematch just took a big hit.)
            As I write this, the Dodgers are up 8-0, with those lucky guys Shohei and Teo clobbering the ball and Snellzilla needing only 70 pitches to get through six innings.
            I’m very pleased for the Dodgers to have a drama-free romp while the Padres and Yankees now have their backs to the wall.

    2. then the Dodgers should reduce their payroll by about $300MM and shoot to win 85 games a year since it’s a crapshoot and statistically, they have a better chance to win if they are the wildcard…

      1. But, it’s not totally a crapshoot. Talent still is important – it’s just that talent does not always win out. That’s what makes it a crapshoot. If the Dodgers spent $300 million less, they would likely not be here. You control what you can control: talent, and realize that randomness rules.

        1. Yeah, I’m dumb. Exactly. I have been a lawyer for 41 years and have 2 degrees. I have been watching the Dodgers for 60 years. I know nothing about baseball or life or logic.

          You are an asshole. If I disagree with you I must be dumb or facetious.

        2. Zero chance you are a lawyer if you think the odds of being a wildcard entrant is better than winning a division.

          I do think you’re above-average intelligence though, thus “playing dumb”

        3. IDK. It is kinda funny when people list their bonafides online to prove anything. Lucky for me I have none. 🙂

    3. Ask ChatGPT if it is fallible.
      Of course crapshoot is just a metaphor for recognizing the element of random chance or “luck.”
      But the playoffs are actually baseball–and we should all know that a swinging bunt can win a game and a screaming liner could start a triple play.
      It’s much more fun, I think, to assess the talent.
      While I don’t want to look past the Reds, I just noticed that SI’s Tom Verducci made a prediction about who might be the key in the Padres-Cubs match: Mason Miller.
      Yes, I still think the Dodgers should have swung a big deal for Miller instead of that bold Outman-for-Brock Stewart swap.
      Anyway, with the Cubs’ Cade Horton injured, the ever-dangerous Padres have a better shot at an upset. Verducci and other yakkers on TV are predicting a “chess match”–another metaphor–between managers. The Padres’ bullpen was very strong, arguably the best, before they added Miller. For the Dodgers, I think Miller would have been a classic closer. For the Pads, Verducci said, he’ll probably be used earlier to face the heart of the Cubs lineup. I’m hoping for very little drama between the Dodgers and Reds.
      But the Padres-Cubs match should be interesting.

  17. Well, I had my Dark Horse Mustang for a year, and Today I traded it in for a 2025 F-150 Platinum PowerBoost/Hybrid. I still have my 2019 F-150 Limited. TBD
    PowerBoost

  18. Score first tonight! To me that’s the key. Don’t let the reds catch their breath! Snell has to give the team 6-7 innings and keep the walks at a minimum! All i’m hearing from mlb network is Hunter Greene! He’s tough! but the dodgers usually handle the toughest pitchers! 5-2 dodgers win!

  19. I believe Andrew once again is one step ahead of the rest of us. He knows the stats that Mark provided for us. The front office decided the best chance to win would be to come to the playoffs as a wildcard team. So there you have it.

  20. Question for our most knowledgeable LADT gurus, do we think there was a specific strategy behind snell today instead of Yamamoto?

        1. I don’t think so. Obviously a lot changes if we were to lose tonight but I think Shohei goes tomorrow. He’s better at Dodger Stadium.

          Save Yamamoto for game 1 in Philadelphia

    2. Yes. Snell is the best we have, and we want him to potentially have as many starts as possible.

    4. Methinks that Snell got the nod for the simple fact that the Reds hit righties much better than they hit lefties. In a 3-game series, it’s very important to get that first win.
      This was a chess move, not a roll of the dice.
      And the strategy has paid off. Snell was nails.
      Meanwhile, I found myself wondering, “Who is the happiest Dodger right now?”
      I think it’s got to be Rortvedt.
      He was a minor leaguer and the least heralded of the three prospects the Dodgers picked up in that mind-boggling Feduccia deal. Now with Will Smith aching, he’s managed to push himself past Rushing to be the backup catcher on a powerhouse team. Just amazing….
      And now Henriquez just walked in a run, and the Reds are one big swing away from creating more drama than I want to see….

  21. Actually, Jerry DiPoto, GM of the Mariners, has been roasted by Seattle fans for his comment that ideally they should strive to win 54% of their games as that will be enough to make the playoffs. For all of those fans who subscribe to the “crapshoot” paradigm, DiPoto is correct. Just strive to make it to the playoffs and then rely on chance.

    1. I think you are missing the point.

      People call the MLB playoffs a “crapshoot” because the structure of the postseason tends to minimize the advantages of the best regular-season teams and make outcomes more random. However, that does not invalidate talent. It just tends to neutralize it at times.

  27. 9:08 PM ET

    Reds (83-79)
    Dodgers (93-69)

    SP Hunter Greene R
    7-4 2.76 ERA
    SP Blake Snell L
    5-4 2.35 ERA

    Confirmed Lineup
    DH S. Ohtani L
    SS Mookie Betts R
    1B F. Freeman L
    3B Max Muncy L
    RF T. Hernandez R
    2B Tommy Edman S
    CF Andy Pages R
    LF E. Hernandez R
    C Ben Rortvedt L

    70° Wind 10 mph Out

    1. Glad your back on the job. It was a struggle when you were gone.!! I think you should ask for a raise

    1. The problem is that we have no clue why:

      1. Maybe he has a boo-boo;
      2. Maybe he is under the weather:
      3. Maybe his analytics are not good against the Reds; or
      4. Maybe he has a family issue.

      You never know.

      1. We can guess all we want, But unless they announce something (which still may not be true) we will not know.
        Anyway … moving on

  30. Headline in the Wall Street Journal:

    Bad News, America. The Numbers Say We’re Getting Another Yankees-Dodgers World Series

    Jared Diamond writes:

    Despite spending somewhere close to $650 million to assemble their rosters, the two most prestigious franchises in Major League Baseball didn’t exactly have the smoothest summers.

    The Los Angeles Dodgers, the superteam that looked destined to dominate the sport, endured an unending spate of injuries, a prolonged slump from star Mookie Betts and underperformance from many of their high-priced newcomers. The New York Yankees, meanwhile, dealt with frequent bullpen meltdowns, incomprehensible lapses in fundamentals and frustrating stretches of inconsistency that frequently left them searching for answers.

    It was enough to give hope to the millions of fans around the country who want nothing more from their October baseball than to see the Yankees and Dodgers implode in spectacular fashion.

    But with apologies to those people, we’re here to deliver some bad news. History suggests that the stage is perfectly set for a Yankees-Dodgers rematch in the World Series.

    The reason for that is simple enough: They both hit a ridiculous number of home runs.

    The MLB postseason, which begins on Tuesday, is often described as a “crapshoot”—a zany, monthlong gauntlet where chaos reigns supreme and the best team in the regular season rarely wins.

    In recent years, however, there has been a clear blueprint for October success hidden within the madness. In a game that increasingly revolves around power, the past five champions have all finished within the top four in MLB in homers. Seven of the last eight were in the top 10. In fact, over the past decade, only the 2015 Kansas City Royals were in the bottom half of MLB in home runs.

    There is a common misconception that the way to win in the playoffs is by relying heavily on small ball. (This theory will undoubtedly come up a lot on television broadcasts over the next few weeks.)

    The problem, it turns out, is that the exact opposite is true—and the numbers bear it out.

    No matter what time of year it is, home runs are always correlated with winning. Teams that out-homer their opponents have won 76.5% of their regular-season games this decade.

    In the playoffs, though, the effect is amplified dramatically, with the club that hits more homers winning a whopping 84% of the time over that span. The team that bashes more home runs in a postseason series has a winning percentage of .800.

    So while other elements on offense are important, Mariners general manager Justin Hollander says, “They are not as important as hitting homers.”

    So, contrary to fans who want to bunt and play small ball, the HR is still King!

  31. For those still pining for Mason Miller:

    1. The Dodgers did not have the Top Prospect to get him. Top 5 Prospects have so much greater value than Top 10 or Top 20 Prospects. No matter how many times you say it, the Dodgers did not have the collateral. And, even if they did, they should not have burned them.
    2. Mason Miller has made it clear he wants to start next year.
    3. We are watching the Padres ship stink… er’ sink.

    1. Top 5 prospects are, practically by definition, overrated. Those lists are a subjective snapshot of talent in a certain window of time.
      Go back 5 or 6 years to find the “Top 5” prospects from Baseball America. Now compare that list to the ACTUAL performance of other players.
      Talk about a crapshoot….
      When I did this a few weeks ago, I found that Tarik Skubal was rated in the 50s–but he proved himself to be superior to everybody in the “Top 5.” (If I recall correctly, Rutschman was the only Top 5 guy who lived up to the billing.)
      Who was the Dodgers last “Top 5” prospect? I think it might have been Lux. He’s been OK but has never played up to the hype. (Neither has your boy Miguelito–and my man Outman was NEVER hyped.)
      The prospect rankings, I think, have limited value. I think the Dodgers brain trust, with all their scouts, have a much better dossiers than whatever BA produces. But it all overlaps, and people get it wrong. Many Dodgers fans thought Diego Cartaya would be the next Salvador Perez.
      Every draft, I think, produces an interesting ranking of prospects. Unlike whatever BA or FanGraphs or whatever produces, the draft is a tangible, meaninful exercise. Will Smith was drafted late in the first round–but I’d say he’s had a better career than every player drafted ahead of him, including Lux. Big kudos to the Dodgers for the Smith pick.
      And kudos to whoever targeted Rortvedt. What a steal.

      1. For the Record, I am not talking about a Teams’ Top 5 – I am talking about an MLB overall Top 5 prospect. I have researched this extensively. Every draft produces surprises, but Top 5 Prospects are different. I would be happy to share the pages and pages of results. I saved them.

        Here are the facts:

        Top 5 Prospects are the cream of the crop — players often compared to franchise cornerstones. Historically:

        Around 60–70% of Top 5 prospects become above-average MLB regulars or better.

        Roughly 30–40% turn into true stars (multiple All-Star selections, cornerstone-type players).

        The “bust” rate is relatively low, but still real — injuries, approach issues, or failing to adjust can derail even elite talent.

        Top 20 Prospects (but outside the Top 5)
        These are still elite players, but the hit rate drops:

        About 35–45% become solid MLB regulars.

        Only 15–20% develop into perennial stars.

        Bust rates rise considerably — half or more may never become everyday big leaguers.

        Bottom Line:

        Top 5 prospects are twice as likely as the rest of the Top 20 to become stars.

        Being in the Top 20 at all is significant — it means the industry views you as having major-league tools. But outside the Top 5, the risk grows substantially.

        1. Additional Info:

          The Padres won Mason Miller because they had Leo De Vries, a consensus Top-3 overall prospect in all of baseball. The Dodgers had depth and volume in their system, but they didn’t have a single elite, near-generational prospect like De Vries in mid-2025.

          Teams often view a Top 3 guy as the equivalent of a proven MLB All-Star in trade value. That kind of headline piece can unlock a deal for a young, controllable impact arm like Miller.

          Even if the Dodgers could technically add up enough “points” in value, front offices (and ownerships) love having that one headline prospect to sell to fans and media. “We got #3, Leo De Vries” plays better than “We got three guys ranked #28, #42, and #55.”

  34. vesia still looks tired. henriquez looks like triple A. dryer finally put out the fire! Trienan was not bad! bloop hit? we’ll take it! Hope the bats don’t go silent tomorrow!! finish it off!!!

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