There is probably no other sport that is harder to understand and predict than baseball. Baseball is generally harder to evaluate talent-wise than football and basketball, for several structural, statistical, and developmental reasons. A couple of years ago, I extolled the belief that Miguel Vargas would be a very good player for the Dodgers, not a “superstar” but just an outstanding player. I also said that James Outman was a 4th or 5th outfielder. Well, James Outman went on to win the Rookie of the Year, while Miguel Vargas struggled mightily and was traded to the White Sox.
Predictably, the Sophmoric Faction of Dodger Fandom pounded their chests and called me an idiot! My response was that they were morons and that progress was not linear! This week, James “Mr. Strikeout” Outman was again (AGAIN) sent back to AAA while Miguel Vargas was named AL Player of the Week! Now, this is not the end… because progress is not linear, but I think Miguel Vargas has a better chance of being an outstanding player than James Outman does of ever being a major league 4th or 5th outfielder! It’s not over (development never is) but the fat lady is humming… Fans have left and been kicked off this site for choosing to die on the James Outman Fan Pole. Well… that and being totally slanderous morons.
They fail to understand how prospects in baseball are challenging to predict and that progress is not linear. If you are interested, here’s why baseball players are so hard to evaluate.
Why Baseball Is Harder to Evaluate:
Longer Development Curve
- A 1st-round MLB pick might not debut in the majors for 3–5 years—if ever.
- Physical and mental maturation vary widely, and players develop unevenly.
- In contrast, top football and basketball players often contribute right away (especially in the NFL and NBA).
Higher Variance in Performance
- Baseball has more randomness and statistical “noise”—a hitter can go 0-for-4 with hard-hit balls or get 3 hits with bloopers.
- Small sample sizes are misleading, and luck (BABIP, park factors, etc.) plays a bigger role.
- Consistency over hundreds of at-bats or innings is harder to spot early.
Tool-Based vs. Role-Based Evaluation
- Scouts assess raw “tools” (hit, power, run, field, arm) but can’t always predict how they’ll translate into production.
- Football and basketball scouting focuses more on roles and systems—e.g., “Can this corner cover man-to-man?” or “Can this point guard create off the dribble?”
Different Levels of Competition
- Baseball talent comes from high school, college, international leagues, and independent leagues—all with huge variation in competition quality.
- Football and basketball pipelines are more centralized (NCAA, AAU, etc.).
Stats Are Less Predictive at Amateur Levels
- A .450 high school batting average doesn’t mean much—it could be against weak pitching.
- Even in college, aluminum bats distort performance.
- In contrast, basketball stats (like shooting percentages or assist-to-turnover ratios) and football stats (like yards per attempt) often translate more cleanly.
Pitching vs. Hitting Complexity
- Pitchers and hitters require separate evaluation models. Each involves biomechanics, mental makeup, durability, and adaptation.
- Injuries, especially Tommy John or shoulder issues, add more volatility to pitching prospects.
Draft Outcome Evidence
- MLB Draft: Very high bust rate; only a fraction of 1st-rounders become stars.
- NBA/NFL Drafts: Higher early-round hit rates; stars often emerge quickly.
Summary
Baseball is clearly harder to evaluate because:
- The draft and farm systems delay feedback on scouting accuracy
- The development path is longer and less linear.
- There’s more statistical noise and contextual variability.
- The skills are more segmented and harder to project.
So, next time you want to mock someone else’s predictions and thump your chest, realize that progress is not linear! Take a deep breath and realize that baseball development takes time. I am frequently wrong, but I get my share of things right!
Dodger News & Notes
- It’s good to see Mookie get a couple of thumps. He needs to get his average back to over .300.
- Last night, other than Mookie, the team could not hit and they could not pitch… but otherwise they were fine. Some of it can be attributed to all the changes in personnel. This, too, shall pass! I am not worried about anything at this juncture.
- So far, the Dodgers are still #1 in Power Rankings.
- This is just a speed bump in the road. Don’t panic! More bad things will happen… more good things will happen. Worry about what you can control.
- Mike Sirota should be in the Top 100 MLB prospects soon.
Watching the pitching the last couple years is the exact reason why i wanted the Dodgers to sign Burnes instead of Snell. I would have actually liked to have seen them resign Flaherty . The Dodgers need a horse or 2. Guys that can make their 30 starts every year. I was never in favor of them signing (trading for) Glasnow or Snell. While both can be lights out at times, neither has ever proven the can stay healthy.
I am on record as saying that Burnes will need TJ in the next two years, so there is that.
You might be right. I just think Burnes has the body (lower half) to with stand the stress of pitching. Long lanky guys always make me nervous. Thats why I think at some point you’ll see May hit the DL too.
Gerrit Cole says hello….
Cole has made 30 or more starts 7 times and topped 200 innings 6 times in his career. At some point guys are going to have issues. Snell has toped out at 180 twice, otherwise he’s never seen 130 in any other season.
Mark may be right, and he may be wrong.
He will remind us if he is right.
I also recall Mark professing that Glasnow had come to the Dodgers with a surgically repaired arm that should keep him on the mound. Encouraging news! I wanted to believe it.
But alas, Glasnow has not shed his “injury-prone” label.
Snell is a 2nd half guy, always has been.
Be Patient….
The Dodgers are playing the “long game” with these injuries.
They want to be at full power in September and October.
I 100% agree with that. The goal is not to win May or June or July….
With a core SP line-up of Yamamoto, Glass, Snell, and Roki it appeared the Dodgers could slow-play some of these guys while also weaving in Kershaw, Gonzo, Miller, May, et al.
Injuries have changed all that. We now need Kershaw, Gonzo and May to be our stoppers while young/rookie arms like Knack, Wrobleski and others fill the void.
This next stretch of games will be a good test for the team. Our SP must stop giving up early leads and go deeper, our BP must hold leads better, and our offense must show they can hit tougher pitching –i.e., not the Marlins, Rockies, Angels, etc.
We may end up in 3rd place (or not I hope), but at least we’ll know where we stand.
From LLBTR.com:
The 32-year-old Conforto, signed to a one-year deal worth $17MM this offseason, has struggled immensely thus far but still seems like he’ll get the lion’s share of playing time for now. Both that contract and some positive traits that run counter to his bleak .168/.304/.273 slash through 171 plate appearances should net him a bit more leash. Conforto is walking at a huge 13.5% clip, and he’s averaging 91 mph off the bat while putting 47% of his batted balls in play at 95 mph or greater. He’s not expanding the zone all that often, and his contact rate within the zone is nearly 86%.
At some point, the results will need to be there for him to continue getting chances, but it’s understandable right now if the Dodgers are convinced better days are ahead. Conforto mashed at a .273/.329/.529 pace in a near identical playing time sample of 173 plate appearances following the 2024 trade deadline, which helped him secure that contract in the first place.
Translation: He has been generally unlucky! It will change…
conforto would be much luckier if every 2B went blind during his ABs
That meme says Conforto’s BA with runners in scoring position is .063.
Yikes.
It might be worse now, after another 0 for 3 day. Not sure if he came up with RISP.
How much more runway should he get?
He’s clearly been the weak link in a powerful offense. Depending on the lineup, he’s taking ABs away from Kim or Rushing. Can we please see Rushing in LF soon?
His BABIP is .234, which is well below his historical norm, and below the .300 threshold which considered typical, so yeah, there’s some bad luck involved, but he’s also striking out at a much higher rate than in previous years.
To say he “mashed” at .273/.329/.529 is being a little charitable.
He had a 4 WAR season in 2019. That’s the closest he’s ever come to mashing (I disregard 2020 when assessing a player’s offense), and, although he’s had some above average years offensively (114 wRC+ last year), he’s always been a below average outfielder. He’s been barely above replacement value for a long time.
I’m sure the Dodger evaluators see positive fundamentals in his offensive data, so we’ll wait and see if he has a good next few months, but Duke is right that Conforto is blocking an outfield of Teoscar, Edman and Pages, and keeping Kim out of the lineup.
Kim’s a rookie, and he could crater after his fast start, but I think the best Dodger lineup is the aforementioned outfield with Kim at 2nd.
It’s looking like Conforto is not a great signing, so far, but a team has to take chances (and he was always meant to be a placeholder). Teo could’ve been a whiff last year.
And it’s becoming a pet peeve of mine when I read how AF will continue to play Conforto simply because he’s getting paid 17 million. I seriously doubt the Dodgers play him to justify a bad investment or because of ego.
BTW, I’d have 17 million right now if I was getting a nickel every time Mark crowed about how he predicted Outman was a 4th outfielder. That poor dead horse has been beaten so much it’s been reduced to a wet spot on the ground.
He’s a 5th outfielder… maybe 6th! 😉
If you were to construct a Dodgers roster with current players based on current performance, a strong case could be made that Outman would push Conforto off the roster.
Neither is hitting much–call it a wash–but Outman could win more games with his glove, arm and legs. So yeah, 4th OF makes sense…. on the MLB’s best team.
Just read Robert’s comment that he played Kim in CF and Edman at 2B because he thought it would be easier on Edman’s ankle. He acknowledged that Kim’s inexperience in CF was at fault–mostly his failure to alert Teo that he had lost the ball.
Again, I blame Roberts.
A better option: Give Edman another day of rest and play Pages in CF, with Kim at 2B.
Math says that would be 340 million times.
We’ll see if Conforto’s luck changes…
Actually, Conforto got a bit lucky in this latest debacle against the D’backs. His 0 for 3 line could have easily been 0 for 4 when he walked on a pitch that may have clipped the inside corner.
In a close game, it would have been a controversial call. The game was effectively over, so the pitcher and catcher could shrug it off, and nobody barked from the dugout.
Mark just can’t quit pairing his love for Miguelito with his abiding disdain for James Outman. Mark seemed genuinely offended that his son was outplayed by Outman in ’23. It’s kind of silly, because Outman was a quality centerfielder–and the Dodgers couldn’t figure out to where to play Vargas. Some of us will recall how, according to Mark, Outman was just “lucky” to hit a homer in his first AB. Never mind how Outman earned the AB with his talent and hard work. Never mind how, in the following season, he got similarly lucky with 23 HRs with a .790 OPS in finishing 3rd in ROY voting. Let’s also recall how, when Outman slumped, Mark borrowed from Aesop to argue that Miguel was like the tortoise and Outman the hare–in other words, a loser.
Now Mark is on a campaign to defend Conforto, who is earning $17 million and batting a paltry .171 with a .584 OPS. Mark argues that Conforto has been “unlucky,” which I guess is the flip side of Outman’s “lucky” success. One could argue, however, that Outman was a a bit unlucky in his recent stint. He hit one blast to center that would have been an HR in some parks and would have been a double or triple if not for a web gem. And he hooked a drive a couple feet right of the foul pole. Close but no cigar.
Conforto should improve…. because of his track record and because he can’t get much worse. But his offense has been down in Chris Taylor/James Outman territory–and both Taylor and Outman are more capable defenders. Does anybody doubt that the Dodgers’ best OF now would have Edman in CF flanked by Pages and Teo?
Anyway, I’d today’s ugly loss belongs to Dave Robert. I get that it’s a 162-game season, but why play Kim at CF and Edman at 2B. Why sit the hot-hitting (and YOUNG) Pages so that the not-young Conforto can get more ABs to try to get his mojo back?
Perhaps Edman or Pages (or Kike or Taylor or Outman) would have lost that first-inning fly ball in the twilight. But all five of those guys have more experience in CF than Kim. Did Kim’s failure, perhaps arguably shared with Teo, affect Kim’s offense? Did he go to bat and try too hard to make up for his blunder? Impossible to say. But I’d feel better about Edman tracking a routine fly in twilight than Kim.
Plus, this was a game against a division rival. At home. After three straight losses… to the Angels!
And it was a bullpen game!
Why not play for the W, and not just hope for the W.
If Roberts wanted to give Pages some rest, here’s a thought: Give Rushing some action in LF. Why not? He’s had the training, and it’s not like Conforto is a gold glover.
While Mark seems almost gleeful about Outman’s struggles, but I hope he returns to OKC, plays well, and gets called back up with the first injury to an outfielder. Maybe he’ll get lucky next time. Even if he hits a measly .171 with a .584 OPS, he’d upgrade the defense.
As for Miguel Vargas, congrats on being Player of the Week! He lifted his BA to .232 and his OPS to .732. If he goes on to match Outman’s rookie performance with 23 HRs and a .790 OPS, that would be cool! His best stroke of luck was getting traded to the White Sox. (That .732 OPS leads the team.) The Sox still need a lot of help….
How about Outman + a pitcher for change-of-scenery candidate Luis Robert? Toss in Ryan Ward, the hard-hitting Rodney Dangerfield of the OKC Comets. Would the Dodgers take the risk?
An OF with Robert flanked by Teo and Pages would be scary.
Edman could shift to 2B, or maybe share the job with Kim.
Conforto would take over Taylor’s role as over-paid bench guy.
I can only conclude that you are either Outman’s Brother or his lover!
Either way, this is sick!
Seek help!
Haha
Duke,
I would call you a moron, but there is no need.
You have absolutely proven you are, and I refuse to state the obvious!
We are to the point where this site is stupider with you, and when that happens… well, you have to go bye-bye!
A long time ago my mother taught me that rhyme about sticks and stones…
It’s you who keep bringing up Vargas and comparing him to Outman.
Who is trolling whom?
I’ll point this out: the Dodgers unloaded Miguelito because they realized he was no longer useful to the team. He is playing well for the White Sox. He’s useful to one of the worst teams in the MLB, and I wish for his continued success.
Outman, meanwhile, remains on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster because he remains useful to the champions.
A few weeks ago you suggested that Outman looked so bad that might never return to the majors. I suggested that he was just an injury away from being summoned. Teo got hurt and Outman was called up. And this could happen again–but I’d prefer that Conforto, not Teo or Pages, strain an oblique.
Your chronic denigration of Outman, starting during his “lucky” call up in ’22, is what strikes me as strange, if not “sick.”
In ’23, the only Dodgers who played more games than Outman were Freddie and Mookie. You can look it up. He played a quality CF while hitting to a .790 OPS with 23 HRs. He has proven that, if given a chance, he can be an above-average major leaguer.
The Dodgers have kept him around for a reason.
So ‘playing the long game’ is a great plan. Right now we are in first place in the toughest division. If we have a nice lead 1 month from now, that would be great. If not then the necessary moves will be made. Will all injured pitchers be ready for October, and no new injuries??? Will be fun to watch
Monday results
ACL Dodgers 10, ACL Mariners 9
Tuesday schedule
3:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (TBA) at West Michigan (Rayner Castillo)
5 p.m.: Tulsa (Jared Karros) vs. Springfield (Pete Hansen)
5:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Justin Jarvis) vs. Sacramento (Trevor McDonald)
7:05 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Jholbran Herder) at Stockton (Donny Troconis)
For more detailed recaps,stats,schedules, standings and box scores for Dodger minor league teams go to the top of this page and cIick on MINOR LEAGUE AFFLIATES.
The Dodger’s #6 18 year old SS,3rd Base prospect Emil Morales went 3-5 with his 3rd HR , 3 RBI and a BB last night at the ACL.
He’s headed to RC soon.
I don’t care about Vargas any more. Or Outman really – he can play CF but doesn’t make enough regular contact to play often. He’s a candidate for a “change of scenery”.
Conforto has not been a good MLB player since 2020. He is a horrible defensive LF. He can’t play anywhere else. In his last season before his injury in 2021 he hit .232/.344/.384/.729. With the Giants he hit .239/.334/.384 and .237/.309/.450/.759. At this point in his career is is a .230 hitter who will hit 15-20 HR and play crappy LF. I don’t see the point.
Pages is the top defensive OF in the NL using DRS as the metric, but he’s a much better RF than CF. Hernandez is a much better hitter than Conforto and belongs in LF. An OF of Teo, Edman, and Pages is better defensively than Conforto, Pages and Teo. And it improves the offense too. Kike and Kim can platoon at 2B which is Kim’s best position.
And that may ultimately be the lineup you see…
Last season we ran lineups out there with Cavan Biggio, Nick Ahmed and Taylor Trammel….
I got faith in the Dodger Brass to navigate 162….
From AI:
Michael Conforto is generally considered an average to slightly below-average defensive left fielder. While he has had periods of strong defensive performance earlier in his career, recent metrics indicate a decline in his defensive effectiveness.
Defensive Metrics Overview
Outs Above Average (OAA): In the 2025 season, Conforto recorded a -2 OAA in left field, suggesting he made two fewer plays than an average fielder at his position.
Defensive Runs Saved (DRS): Specific DRS data for 2025 is not readily available, but earlier in his career, Conforto had seasons with positive DRS, indicating above-average defense.
Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR): Detailed UZR figures for 2025 are not specified, but past seasons have shown variability in this metric for Conforto.
Physical Considerations
Conforto’s defensive abilities have been impacted by injuries, including a significant shoulder surgery in 2022. These health issues have affected his arm strength and range, contributing to the decline in his defensive metrics.
Summary
While Michael Conforto was once regarded as a competent defensive outfielder, recent seasons have seen a downturn in his defensive performance. Factors such as injuries and reduced range have played a role in this decline. As of the 2025 season, he is best characterized as an average to slightly below-average defender in left field.
According to Fangraphs, Conforto has posted negative defensive WAR every season except 2015. He has posted -24.2 dWAR in his career. He’s -4.7 in 2025, -6 in 2024 and 2023.
According to Baseball Reference, he has -3 DRS so far this season and -15 for his career.
He isn’t a good defensive outfielder and never has been
So let’s give Rushing some starts in LF.
He’s had the training. He should be more than just Smith’s backup. He needs more at bats, right?
An OF that reads Rushing-Pages-Teo would be potent. Edman shifts to 2B. When the Dodgers build a big lead, Rushing can shift to catcher, Kim can take over 2B and Edman can move to CF…..
A. Outman did not win the ROY, he placed 3rd. B. Blake Treinen was playing catch yesterday at Dodger Stadium. C. Vargas might have won player of the week, but his defense is still atrocious. He has as many errors at third as Max does 6. D. Another supposed Dodger trade target per Bob Nightengale, Ryan McMahon, has a lower BA than Muncy, and even though he has 3 more homers, he only has 11 driven in. E. Like the man says, progress is not linear, and you cannot turn a bad start around overnight.
I am not impressed with McMahon… unless AF sees something we don’t.
These things take time… as Conforto shows.
The thing you have to consider with Conforto is that he is a LHH who can hit 30 Big Flies.
The Dodgers have too few of those, although Rushing helps.
On Outman: I was just engaging in hyperbole! 😉
Conforto hit 30 HR once in his career in 2019.
He hit 33, 28 and 27.
Teoscar never hit 33 until he came to the Dodgers.
I’d much rather see more of Rushing and less of Conforto. Is there a rule against putting Smith and Rushing in the same lineup?
Not rooting against Conforto.
Definitely rooting for Rushing, who has already proven himself to hit harder than everybody except Ohtani. Play the man.
Conforto hit 30 HR once in his career. In 2019.
You can say that again!
For the record, I have no opinion on Conforto.
If he hits, they will keep him.
If he doesn’t, then … bye, bye!
All I know is that it would be nice to have another LH Power hitter against RHP… which is the majority of what the Dodgers see.
Conforto has averaged 14 HRS a season over the last 4 years. We all want to see him hit and help the team( we are all Dodger fans). But he hasnt ,with Teo and Tommy back, there is no way conforto should be stealing atbats from any of our outfielders or Kim.
Well, you evidently are smarter than Friedman and Company, so send them your resume, and you will be hired instantly!
Facts are facts as far as the batting average and HRS. But it is still just my opinion, which i thought is what we do on an open forum. But i do appreciate snarky comments
These are people who earn their living managing the Dodgers and, in fact, have been the best in baseball in doing it for the last 10 years. I have a hard time going against them. I am no fan of Conforto, but I was also no fan of Max Muncy and CT3 when they came to the Dodgers.
AF & Associates are also the geniuses who thought a keystone duo of Lux and Vargas would be terrific. Even a certain Dodger blogger was correctly arguing that Lux lacked the arm to be a quality major league shortstop.
That doesn’t mean they don’t make mistakes.
10:10 PM ET
Diamondbacks (26-22)
Dodgers (29-19)
SP Ryne Nelson R
1-1 5.13 ERA
SP Y. Yamamoto R
5-3 2.12 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
DH S. Ohtani L
SS Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
RF Andy Pages R
LF M. Conforto L
CF E. Hernandez R
2B Hyeseong Kim L
76° Wind 10 mph Out
Edman NOT starting
Teo also NOT starting
Probably each needs a day of rest after their games.
I can’t go there. They both need a day off ???? Mark, they each had 2 weeks off. This isn’t a strenuous sport. I kinda get sick of these guys needing time off… Suck it up buttercup and go to work. Maybe it’s just me, but why can’t they work (play) ???
Oh, you have played this game at a high level? I did not know that.
Fully agree. These guys are professional athletes.
Perhaps the Dodgers brought them back a couple days too soon….
05/20/25 Los Angeles Dodgers released C Austin Barnes.
Good night, sweet prince
So today’s posted lineup features neither Teo or Edman.
I haven’t seen an explanation yet, but it raises the question: Did the “slow-playing” Dodgers rush them back a little too soon? Should they have had another few days of recovery?
The good news is that Kim is back at 2B, not CF. You may recall that he lost a routine fly in the twilight and Roberts blamed it on his “inexperience” in failing to summon Teo for help. (Jack Dreyer and his ERA… deserved better.) Also, Roberts had Kim in CF instead of Edman, because he thought 2B would be a bit easier for Edman’s healing injury.
Perhaps not easy enough, because Edman isn’t today.
Anyway, with both Edman and Teo on the bench, the lineup will now have Kike in CF, with Conforto in LF and Pages in RF. So Conforto gets another chance to prove he deserves to be a starter and shouldn’t be a $17 million guy at the end of the bench.
I bet I’m not the only fan who would prefer to see Rushing get a start in LF….
In other news, the annual rumor that the Dodgers could trade for the Rockies’ 3B Ryan McMahon is back. He’s a better defender than Max, but Max has had the far more potent bat.
I am not a very smart guy, but I would never tell why a player is not playing…
1. At this point I would be in favor of sitting Max Muncy against left handers (.081 BA) and playing Kike Hernandez.
2. Conforto was a hedge against Andy Pages struggling against right handed pitching. Fortunately, Pages seems to be establishing himself as a starting ML outfielder. I think Conforto gets another 50 to 75 regular at bats before the Dodgers make a change.
3. I like the Dodgers getting younger and better by releasing Taylor and Barnes. Emotional, tough decisions but those were the correct baseball decisions, in my opinion. Is Freeland for Rojas on the horizon? Seems like that may be farther away, barring an injury.
4. The Dodgers are loaded with really good, young outfielders in A ball – Sirota, DePaula, Hope, Quintero.
Watching the Dodgers hit 95+ exit velocity with nothing to show for it the last two nights is frustrating. Nelson and Pfaadt must be living right.
5th: Conforto grounded out to second.
What a thoroughly enjoyable game.
Yamamoto deserved the win but like I said yesterday, the Pitching just isn’t there behind him, and will not be there any time soon.
Casparius has been excellent but not sure what’s happened to Scott, his velocity is there but he’s become vulnerable to the long ball. Asking him to pitch 2 innings tells you all you need to know about Doc’s belief some of his BP options. He did press the right buttons in the 8th when Vesia did his high wire act, and Caspa got the last out.
A much needed win.
Gritty win.
Yama gonna win the CY.
I just watch this team and don’t follow any others. Occasionally I look at the standings. So over past 10 games of us struggling, the rest of division not gaining any ground. I guess everyone has issues!!