Sometimes, we find out later what we did not know that we did not know… and sometimes, we never find out. For example, I have some former employees that I am friends with but whom I would never want to work for me again. There may be various reasons for this. I may have reasons that I would never tell anyone.
We recently saw the Dodgers jettison two former top prospects, Gavin Lux and Diego Cartaya. What they got back for these two former top prospects seemed light to many fans… including me. However, I am also painfully aware that sometimes we don’t know what we don’t know. We understand that both players were former Dodger Number One Prospects and among the Top Prospects in all of MLB. We must also realize that both players could crash and burn or become big stars. We don’t know what we don’t know.
I have no inside information, and I do not know what I don’t know. Sometimes, there is a problem with a player that no one will talk about, and I am not saying this applies to either player because I simply do not know. Sometimes, a player likes to smoke too much weed or has a drinking problem. Sometimes, they don’t “click” with a specific coach or the coaching staff. Other times, maybe they need a wake-up call or a change of scenery. We just don’t know what we just don’t know.
Here’s what Gavin Lux said about the trade:
The Dodgers traded Lux for Mike Sirota (a player they once drafted themselves) and a draft pick. I think it will take two or three years to evaluate this trade because we don’t know what we don’t know. Do the Dodgers believe that Sirota can become an elite centerfielder? Do they know what player they will get with that extra draft pick?
Some fans were really bummed out when the Dodgers traded Michael Busch (and he did hit 21 HR in his rookie year), but they ended up with two Top Five Prospects in Hope and Ferris. Right about now, we don’t know what we don’t know.
I have heard fans say, “Why did they designate Cartaya instead of trading him?” I don’t know. It’s probably because they are foolish and have never done this before. I say that with sarcasm dripping off. I’m guessing they had the deal done with the Twins and just DFA’ed him to see if they could do better. Again, we don’t know what we don’t know.
Cartaya has skills that are off the charts, but he suddenly lost his ability to hit. The Dodgers acted like they had lost patience with him, but we don’t know what we don’t know. We may find out sometime… or never find out. Cartaya could become a star… or fade into oblivion. The Dodgers may know, but they will likely never tell… leaving us to still not know what we don’t know.
Jose Vasquez is a young fireballer who struggles with control. The odds are he will become a good reliever after he has moved through five or six organizations, like Edwin Uceta, who is now a very accomplished MLB Reliever after being thrown out by multiple organizations… including the Dodgers. We don’t know what we don’t know.
X-CITES
UPDATE
Entering 2025, Baseball America picked players from every team who were “Breakout Prospects.” To qualify, a player must rank outside the organization’s Top 10 prospects entering the year. They picked three Dodger Prospects:
Eriq Swan, RHP
Track Record: In his junior season at Middle Tennessee, Swan earned a rep as one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in college baseball. His fastball that summer averaged 98 mph and touched 102, but the results did not follow. He was rotation-mates at MTSU with Jaden Hamm, a Tigers prospect who also was one of the season’s breakout stars. Swan racked up a 6.49 ERA and a 15.6% walk rate. Still, the Dodgers bet on his stuff and selected him in the supplemental fourth round. His pro debut was limited by injuries but he made up some of those lost innings in the Arizona Fall League.
Scouting Report: Despite uneven results, scouts were impressed with Swan’s pure stuff. He works with a four-pitch mix led by an upper-90s fastball and backed by a slider, a sweeper and a changeup. Both versions of the slider are knockouts and project as potentially plus pitches. The changeup is firm and gets up to 91 mph, though it produced solid results in the AFL and could be an average offering in time. The next step for the former high school shortstop is to throw more frequent, higher-quality strikes. He has a shorter arm action and moved to a stretch-only delivery in an effort to achieve those goals. Scouts also would like to see him be more consistent with his direction to the plate.
The Future: After a whizbang turn in the AFL, Swan’s next stop is likely High-A Great Lakes. There, he’ll work on throwing more strikes and staying healthy enough to turn in a full season. If he does, his ceiling is extremely high.
Brendan Tunink, OF
Track Record: In high school in Illinois, Tunink was a star baseball player and also wrestled in his freshman year. The lefty hitter—who earned the nickname Big Tuna—rewrote the record books at Newman Central Catholic. He also participated in the MLB Draft Combine, then was taken by the Dodgers in the eighth round. He signed for $410,000—the second-highest figure in the eighth round and more than double the slot value—to sway him from a commitment to Notre Dame. He did not play after signing.
Scouting Report: The Dodgers were drawn to Tunink’s combination of twitchy athleticism, lefthanded power and potential for remaining projection. He is a plus runner and could get to plus raw power in the future if he adds strength to his frame. There are questions about his hit tool, which is to be expected of a player from a cold-weather area without much exposure to premium competition. He’s a plus runner with the athleticism and range to stick in center field as he moves up the minor league ladder.
The Future: Tunink will likely begin his career in the Arizona Complex League. There, he’ll work on turning his athleticism and projection into reality. The Dodgers have long shown a willingness to bet on players who need plenty of time to develop. Tunink fits that mold and could pay big dividends later.
Brooks Auger, RHP
Track Record: After a season at Hinds (S.C.) JC, Auger transferred to Mississippi State for the next three years and two seasons. He missed the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The righthander spent most of his time in the bullpen with the Bulldogs but made five starts in 2024. One of those starts was a 13-strikeout, 28-whiff gem against Ole Miss in the Southeastern Conference tournament. That outing also saw Auger go a career-high eight innings. Los Angeles chose him in the sixth round in 2024 and signed him for a below-slot bonus of $197,500. He did not pitch after signing.
Scouting Report: The Dodgers were drawn to Auger’s size, athleticism and stuff and believe the combination could help him transition into a starter’s role. After signing he reported to the team’s spring training complex and threw live bullpen sessions and in the bridge league. There, he showed a lively 93-96 mph fastball with a mid-80s slider and a potentially average changeup. He also added a curveball during that time, and the pitch could be a 50-grade offering with more reps.
The Future: Auger will make his pro debut as a 23-year-old, so he’s an advanced pitcher who could move quickly through the system if developed as a reliever. Molding him into a starter might take a little bit more patience, but the wait could be well worth the reward.
You nailed that, Mark. Players these days rarely play their entire careers with one team. Lux for whatever reason never reached the heights predicted for him. Granted, this last season he was coming off of an injury that sidelined him for a full year, and we all figured it would take some time for him to get going. But he was a bust at short, his short outfield experiment was not a rousing success back when they tried that. His only real position is second base, at which he is at least league average.
But the Dodgers signed Kim because they believe he improves the position, and they can keep Tommy Edman in CF. This opened up all sorts of trade possibilities which include the option to trade Outman, and possibly someone else for a position of need. Kim also has more range than Lux and is a proven base stealer with over 200 in his career.
Fully agree that Kim is a better fit for the Dodgers than Lux. This team doesn’t need power at the bottom of the lineup. It needs on-base skills and speed. And exceptional defense too.
The Reds, it seems, are going to give Lux another shot at a UT role. When Lux’s troubles against lefties first surfaced, I thought he might move to UT as a left-batting complement to Taylor and Kike.
I was frankly shocked that a guy athletic enough to play SS looked so bad in the OF during that trial run before he wrecked his knee.
The Dodgers recent first-rounder, Kellon Lindsay, is billed as a speedy, super athletic Trea Turner-type who could move to CF. With Zyhir Hope rising and now Mike Sirota in the prospect mix–as well as Kendall George–the Dodgers should have CF covered in the future.
But what about ’25?
Sure, Edman can do the job. But is that the highest and best use of a super UT guy?
When the Dodgers signed Kim, there was a lot of talk here and on other blogs about it, and I don’t recall anyone seeing any logic or reason for signing him, but I did see logic in it.
First, if LA hadn’t signed it, someone else would have.
It may be true that they don’t “need” him this year, but next year, with no Taylor, no Kike, no Rojas, and I think no Muncy, what’s better than having him now? Plus, for possibly 5 years, I think it will be something like $22 million, it’s too cheap to pass up such a great opportunity.
I think the Dodgers signed him, not for this season, but for next season.
And it goes without saying that he is a gold glove player and has excellent batting skills, as well as great speed.
There are teams trying to trade for Arraez, and I think Kim could be a better player than him.
The Dodgers aren’t just trying to win today, they’re also thinking about tomorrow.
Something makes me think that the next move, signing or trade, will be for a 3B, because the rest of the lineup is set for the next 2 or 3 seasons, as is the starting rotation.
Fernando’s brother, Jorge, just nailed it!
I was waiting for someone to mention it, but I didn’t see it. That’s why I still have the idea of Arenado, not this year, but next year, so, Nolan, you have this season to prove that you still have it… If you still want to play for the Dodgers in ’26…
Odds are Jose Vasquez never reaches the majors but that doesn’t invalidate the process of the trade.
If Kim’s gold glove defense shines in the majors, the rest is gravy. Diego is just a roster crunch victim. His star was fading and those 40 man roster spots are gold. I think we are fine at 3rd . But I don’t know Jack. By the way, is he related to Fred Dryer?
Book em
Great points about not knowing the honest truth. I guess we are all guilty of having opinions and voicing them when we don’t know the full story. If there is anything that AFrieman is good at, it is keeping inside information private. It is in the best interest of the organization and often pays off when deals are made, or when dispersing player information would be to the detriment of the team.
Think about it. How many of us knew that Freddie Freeman had broken ribs during the playoffs? They kept that information so well hidden that even some teammates didn’t know about it. Had opponents known, I’m sure they would have exploited his weakness and we probably aren’t talking about a World Series Championship.
Regarding players acquisitions and the inside clubhouse secrets re: personalities and such. There’s a reason Puig isn’t in MLB any longer. Some of those problems have surfaced, (rebelliousness, uncoachable, sex assault allegations and more), but that information didn’t get leaked by the organization. It was Puig’s immature nature and public behavior that let the information out.
Remember Kevin Malone and his short tenure as GM? His big mouth did him in. He was actually quite knowledgeable about the game while with Montreal. But in a big market, with a big ego and mouth…he didn’t last two years. I think the same could be said for Jim Bowden and Steve Phillips. Both guys that were quick to give the press quotes and not hold their cards to the vest. The ideal GM is someone that would pass a CIA background check.
Well said, Evan!
Have you passed a CIA background check? 😉
I remember when AF traded Matt Kemp. There was a lot of criticism. He was a fan favorite, and had a bit of a resurgent year after suffering major injuries and underperformance.
There were flaws in his game, however, that the Dodgers recognized, and by trading him when they did after he had a really good offensive second half of the season, they were selling high, which is what a smart investor does.
In retrospect it was a smart trade, and maybe Preller’s worst trade.
Dodgerrick made a good point about Lux’s splits, and, although just rumors, if Lux had work ethic or character issues, it is definitely AF’s m.o. to filter for high character and remove those who might be a detriment to the organizational culture.
Lux’s defense at 2nd last year was passable, but below average. If he’s a guy that rakes, then it’s good compromise. I suspect that the Dodgers are thinking that his hot July and August allowed them to sell high on an asset they don’t value as highly. After all, he did tank offensively again in September.
As I mentioned before, if the Hyesong Kim the Dodgers just signed can be a comp to the other Hyesong Kim (different spelling) who plays for the Padres, then it’s a really good signing and probably an upgrade over Lux.
If Lux flourishes and becomes the “perpetual All Star” he was predicted to be, then good for him. Either way, the Dodgers will be fine.
AF has a shelf life dollar value for all players in the organization. Lux’s time was up and had to go. Wish him well. This is why we are the best run team in all sports.
In one way the Dodgers’ brass did Lux and themselves a disservice.
They had deluded themselves into thinking he’d be a star at SS.
A lot of us mere fans had doubts about that after we saw him step up as a rookie after one of Seager’s injury.
A high-quality SS simply has to have a great arm, like Adames or Wynn or De La Cruz. He needs to have he range to go deep into the hole, and then a quick release with enough velocity to turn an infield single into an out.
To me, it seemed that the Dodgers had decided that Lux was a “good enough” defensive player who would bring value with his bat. (This is essentially the approach with Mookie, right? “Good enough” defense with an all-star bat.)
So if the Dodgers had told Lux early enough that his future was at 2B, the franchise would have been better off.
Hell, the Dodgers might have even drafted Gunnar Henderson when they had the chance….
All considered, I’m pleased with the recent machinations to add Kim and two prospects (one yet to be drafted) and say goodbye to Lux and Cartaya. Vaya con dios. That said, I’d have preferred that a deal for Devin Williams could have been struck.
At any rate, I wish both Lux and Cartaya success in the future. I wish it for them and also selfishly for the Dodgers. Eventual success for former prospects will only enhance the Dodgers’ reputation for identifying talent, and this could make it easier to swing deals down the road.
Maybe it was Lux telling the Dodgers that he was a SS.
No doubt he was.
But you saw that he wasn’t a SS–and yet AF and the rest was convinced he was up to the task.
Thank goodness AF knew enough to trade Amaya for Rojas. A small but ultimately great move.
“Dodgers Added $70 Million In Sponsorship Revenue After Signing Shohei Ohtani.Ohtani’s unique contract has been much of the focus, but the sponsorship money he brought in proved to be a significant asset as well. Early in the year, the Dodgers were consistently agreeing to new partnerships with Japan-based companies, and according to Justin Birnbaum of Forbes, the Dodgers earned a total of $70 million from their new sponsorship revenue:
In 2024, the Dodgers added 12 Japanese-based partners and a total of $70 million in incremental sponsorship revenue thanks to the 30-year-old superstar, according to research firm SponsorUnited”.
On and off the field, Ohtoni is worth every dollar they are paying him now and in the future, Will Juan Soto bring in this type of revenue to the Mets? I doubt it!
No!
Adding sponsorship was always part of the Dodgers plan…. but it seems that the Ohtani Effect has far exceeded expectations.
The Dodgers had always been an attractive destination for Asian players, but now more so than ever. Kim turned millions to be a Dodger.
UPDATE ABOVE
28 days till Dodger Spring Training starts on February 7th with pitchers ans catchers reporting. 13 days or before January 23rd when Roki Sasaki’s dealine for a decision on which team he will sign with or has return to Japan with NO decision. What number will he receive in wearing Dodger Blue?
99
IF he signs here, he won’t be wearing uni #18 which was his number in Japan but belongs to Yamamoto.
He can’t have #17 which belongs to Shohei.
He won’t have anything containing the number 4 because that’s considered bad luck.
Maybe he’ll do #81.
We’ve lived in Hong Kong for nine years. When my son, the crafty southpaw, had to give up 17 to a more senior player, he opted for 88… because 8 is a lucky number in Chinese culture.
For his soccer team, he chose 42 as a salute Jackie Robinson.
Duke,
You can tell me it’s none of my business (and I’m OK with that), but when I hear you live in Hong Kong, I wonder what brought you there and where you lived before that.
You’re right Mark, it’s none of your business, but I’d like to know too.
During my business career I had occasion to go to Hong Kong many times and I found it to be a fascinating and exciting place, although that was before the Chinese took it back. Don’t know what it’s like today.
Fill us in Duke. Is Hong Kong still the great city I remember?
My wife’s brilliant journalism career took us overseas in late 2010, first to Hanoi and six years later to Hong Kong. (She was born in Saigon before its fall and had long dreamed of returning to Vietnam as a journalist. During our long courtship, I signed off on the plan.)
We lived in San Jose for ten years before shipping out. Still own a home there, but I doubt we’ll ever live in it again.
“(Hank Aaron told me) ‘Don’t dig in against Bob Gibson, he’ll knock you down. He’d knock down his own grandmother if she dared to challenge him. Don’t stare at him, don’t smile at him, don’t talk to him. He doesn’t like it. If you happen to hit a home run, don’t run too slow, don’t run too fast. If you happen to want to celebrate, get in the tunnel first. And if he hits you, don’t charge the mound, because he’s a Gold Glove boxer.’ I’m like, ‘Damn, what about my 17-game hitting streak?’ That was the night it ended.”
– Dusty Baker on Bob Gibson
Sounds like Gibson might have been Madbum’s role model.