Pitchers used to pitch like 200-300 innings a year. They won 300 to 500 games in their career and were deemed “Iron Men.” Now, pitchers are lucky to pitch into the fifth inning and log 150 innings a season. Is it true that they “just don’t build them like they used to?” That’s actually a very ignorant thing to say. It’s not stupid – just ignorant of the facts. Pitchers are bigger, stronger, and throw harder now than they ever did (they are taught to throw with maximum effort) and with extreme spin. “Dodgers assistant pitching coach Connor McGuiness is the King of Spin. No one in baseball better understands how spin works and how to teach it than McGuiness. “That is from The Athletic yesterday.
Dodger pitchers throw with both maximum effort and extreme spin. Is that the way it should be? I have no clue… but it’s the way it is. There is one other factor that is a huge reason why pitchers do not pitch as long as they used to: Most MLB teams use statistical analysis and algorithms to know what pitches are likely to be thrown by any pitcher in any given situation. It’s not perfect, but it gives hitters an advantage.
Sandy Koufax could have pitched in this era, but he would have never been so dominant as he was. The algorithms and predictable pitching sequences would have impacted him. Baseball has changed. Pitching has changed. You should change (your thinking) too. The good old days weren’t always good and Koufax stopped pitching at age 30.
Some argue that baseball’s analytics revolution, which gained traction in the early 2000s and inspired a best-selling book and a blockbuster film, didn’t just reshape the game—it damaged its soul. Others are convinced that the influx of data and technology has only sharpened the minds of MLB’s front offices, coaches, players, and fans alike. Andrew Friedman has been planning for this by hording arms and while the Dodgers had more arm injuries than any other team, they also had more arms than any other team. This is the new paradigm!
The roots of this analytical approach stretch back further than many realize. In the 1950s, a few forward-thinkers began to see the limits of traditional stats in telling the whole story of a player’s value. Visionary executive Branch Rickey, famous for signing Jackie Robinson and pioneering the minor league farm system, was also a forerunner in baseball statistics. In Life magazine, he introduced an early concept of on-base percentage, hinting at the coming evolution in baseball analysis.
The analytical spark caught fire in the ’80s, thanks to fan-turned-writer Bill James. With a relentless curiosity, James pushed beyond the stats on the backs of baseball cards, proposing an “ever-expanding line of numerical analysis.” Teaming up with STATS, Inc. (now Stats Perform), James published groundbreaking works that introduced fans to metrics like runs created, range factor, win shares, and similarity scores. His vision earned him the title “Godfather of Sabermetrics”—a nod to the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR).
James’ ideas inspired a wave of thinkers, like John Thorn, Pete Palmer, and David Reuther, whose book The Hidden Game of Baseball: A Revolutionary Approach to Baseball and Its Statistics built on this new wave of knowledge. By the ’90s, the flood of new stats grew into a surge, moving beyond novelty and book sales into practical applications for teams. The creation of WAR (wins above replacement) sought to distill a player’s contributions into a single number. Yet, analysts quickly learned that no one metric could capture the entirety of a player’s impact, leading them to more nuanced stats that offered a clearer picture.
Then came Michael Lewis’ Moneyball in 2003, the book that catapulted analytics into the mainstream. Chronicling how the Oakland Athletics assembled a competitive team on a shoestring budget, it revealed to the world how powerful data-driven decision-making could be in reshaping the game’s landscape. And from there, the game has never looked back… and it ain’t going to! “No grounders,” three-time All-Star third baseman Josh Donaldson, told the Washington Post. “Ground balls are outs. If you see me hit a ground ball, even if it’s a hit, I can tell you: It was an accident. If you look at a baseball field and look on the infield, there’s a lot of players there. You look in the outfield, there (are) fewer players and more grass. So if you hit it in the air, even if it’s not that hard, you have a chance.”
The Dodgers won in 1988 in large part because Kirk Gibson remembered that in a 3-2 count, Dennis Eckersley always threw a “backdoor slider” and he was ready for it! Baseball has changed. There is less bunting because bunting is generally very stupid! Sorry to break it to you… but that is the reality! There are more strikeouts and of course, there are dramatically more home runs! Get over it!
Why Gavin Lux Will Be Traded
Some will say that I just have it in for Gavin Lux. They can believe what they want, but I never disliked him, I just NEVER EVER thought he was a SS and I was right. I do not think he will ever hit tough LH pitching, the same as I don’t think James Outman will hit LH Pitching. I actually like Gavin Lux and he was a valuable piece of the Dodgers Championship run and I respect that. There are three reasons why Gavin Lux will be traded:
- He has good trade value;
- Mookie Betts wants to play 2B; and
- Mookie Betts NEEDS to play 2B!
The Dodgers have Mookie Betts for seven more years and he is 32-years-old right now. He needs to minimize the wear and tear on his body and I have it on pretty good authority that running out to RF nine times a game and patrolling the outfeld defensively adds 2-4 miles of running a day to an athlete who already runs a lot. this extends his career and Lux has no other position to play. I firmly believe that the Dodgers will trade Lux this winter and it will likely be to a team in Illinois or Wisconsin! Don’t shoot the messenger. Lux coulod be part of a deal for Garrett Crochet. I could see that happening.
Rants & Raves
- Andrew Friedman does not believe in giving out long-term deals for pitchers. So, Corbin Burnes is not going to be a Dodger and the Dodgers are well-stocked with starting pitchers.
- As expected, Shohei Ohtani underwent arthroscopic surgery to repair a labrum tear in his left shoulder that resulted from a dislocation, but should be ready for Spring Training.
- Sean McLain is turning heads in the AFL as he is hitting .318 with a .483 OB% and a 1.074 OPS He has 3 HR and 13 BB in 44 ABs and has stolen 10 bases in 12 attempts. He should start at Tulsa next year, but he may have flipped the switch.
- Zyhir Hope is still up and down in the AFL, currently hittingb.250/.798 OPS, but he is much younger than McLain. Jake Gelof is also struggling.
- Look for Clayton Kershaw to have his surgeries, rehab and then sign a contract when he is close to returning. This leaves an extra roster spot and he has a “handshake agreement” with Andrew that he will get a two-year deal.
- Teoscar will get a 3-year offer fromthe Dodgers, It all boils down to whether some other team gives him a 4th year, but I would think that the Dodgers would like a decision quickly.
- The Luis Robert, Jr. rumors won’t go away… nor should they. I was stumping for him this time last year. He had a bad season in 2024, but everyone had a bad season on that team. Hopefully, the team is sold and Will Venable can re-invorgate it. I could see a “Blockbuster Trade” that includes Garrett Crochet and Robert, Jr. Lux, DePaula, Rushing, and Ferris (and others) would all be a part of such a deal.
Mark,
Well said. Time marches on. All sports have changed.
As for Teo. just about ALL free agents say they want to remain with the club they are on. But just about ALL take the better offer. Hard for us normal people to imagine that if Teo gets a 3 yr $75 million offer (which would set him up for 10 lifetimes) that he would turn that down for a 4 yr offer on a team that may never make the playoffs.
DJT!!!!
We are hot in 2024!!!!
Let’s not talk about that…
Baseball united us… Dodger Baseball Specifically!
Gotcha, but it was a good night.
And Im still celebrating the 2024 World Champs AND the Rams won 3 straight.
Damn right it was a good day….
UGH!
I’m second that emotion.
And I agree with Mark too: Let’s stick to baseball.
I’m sure apples to oranges, (and other factors involved)but after Cody surgery (ok it was on other shoulder)he was just about worst hitter in baseball for 2 years. Hoping for a better outcome this time
Rumor has it that Juan Soto wants to stay on the East Coast, and everyone thinks that it is between the Yankees and Mets – I would say this: Do not understimate the Phillies and Dave Dombrowski! They have a better team than either the Yankees or the Mets.
I got Toronto handing him the bag and a separate bag to hold it in.
Good article. Someone needs to get Betts on record answering the question where he wants to be. Pages would slide nicely into RF.
McClain’s a little dude. Maybe a Pedroia-type ceiling?
Agree about long-term deals for SPs other than Sasaki.
Mookie is alraedy on record:
https://www.mlb.com/news/mookie-betts-second-base-dodgers-2024#:~:text=Betts%20has%20expressed%20his%20preference,much%20better%2C%E2%80%9D%20Roberts%20said.
December 4, 2023:
“I could see him playing the rest of his career at second base,” Roberts said. “That excites me, and that excites him, most importantly.”
So barring a Hot Stove shakeup, the Dodgers’ middle-infield plan appears set. Betts has expressed his preference for playing second base at this point, and the Dodgers are happy to accommodate him, given what it means to the lineup, at large.
“A happy Mookie Betts, a guy that can post and play 160 games, it makes the Dodgers much better,” Roberts said. “So it’s pretty much a no-brainer.”
The only thing that has changed is that Mookieis now a year older!
Pedroia was damn good! He was the reason Boston moved Mookie to RF in the first place.
But how about his McClain’s older brother Matt?
Matt McClain was impressive as a rookie SS for the Reds, but he was supplanted by budding superstar Elly De La Cruz. McClain was moved to 2B, but the Reds also have former ROY India there. Then McClain was sidelined with an injury.
If the Dodgers pass on Adames, Matt McClain could be on their radar.
Just watched “Dodgers Territory” on Youtube with Alana Rizzo and Clint Pasillas.
Rizzo floated an old notion that I haven’t seen lately: That the Dodgers should try to trade for Arenado, coming off a down year.
He’s 34 and has three years left on his contract.
To accomplish this he also wanted to concoct a three-way deal in which the Dodgers would give up Edman. Why o why would the Dodgers want to deal Edman??? Seemed like crazy talk to me.
Pasillas, meanwhile, was echoing our speculation that Lux + Cartaya + ??? could bring in Crochet. The White Sox would get a young veteran in Lux, a potential mainstay catcher and more.
FWIW, Pasillas thinks that both Buehler and Flaherty will depart for better deals than the Dodgers will offer. This makes sense to me because the Dodgers will eventually commit massive $$ to Sasaki (though maybe not this winter) and because the ’25 rotation figures to add Shohei, Gonsolin and May.
There is A LOT of good pitching talent on the market, though.
Interesting that Max Fried was spotted out to dinner with his old high school teammate Flaherty, Freddie, Lux and some other Dodgers. It would interesting to eavesdrop on these guys talking about the job market.
Another take on starting pitchers. It was our big ‘weakness’. Somehow we won the WS!!!. Maybe starting pitchers was our big Strength!!!!. We had so many candidates that we still were able to come up with 3 guys after all those injuries. Who else could have done that?
And I am seeing Scherzer and Verlander as possibilities again. PLEEEEEEase NOOOOOO!
if the dodgers offer 3@ 75, i believe he signs. Lux? he’s gone. mookie is the best right fielder in the game. but if it means prolonging his career, then do it! you’re right on spot mark, dodgers ain’t giving Burnes 6-7 years. so unless Snell would be willing to sign a 3 year deal, he ain’t coming either. Fried? he could be the wildcard. would the dodgers go 5? probably not, but he might be the one pitcher they would consider. Burnes probably ends up in new york. pick one! …. as far as position players, soto and alonzo both probably stay in new york, they just switch teams! the mets want to make a big “splash “. what bigger than soto? ……. The Giants? will they find a big time player willing to sign there? they have money, just can’t find anyone to take it! … the friars? they probably go hard after Snell. i’m sure preller kicks the tires on soto, but with tatis in right, where does he play? left? maybe. don’t see anyone taking tatis and his contract, EXCEPT maybe the yankees! even the padres can’t sign soto , plus keep tatis, can they? … the dbacks?? if they let Christian Walker leave, who do they bring in ? rumor is they will move Suarez to 1st. i’m hoping Walker goes to Seattle or the Angels, or KC, just out of the national league!! … the rockies? never mind. point is, the dodgers can’t sit back and stand pat! As long as Preller is in San diego, and the money doesn’t run out, he’ll never stop trying to overtake the dodgers. signing Snell back would be a huge win for the friars. maybe the dodgers do make Snell an offer. Heck, maybe he ends up playing with every team in the nl west! …. enough of my nl west preview! i’m just wondering, Mark, if Freddie and company win , say 2 more championships, would Freddie even consider going into the hall of fame as a dodger?? Food for thought!
Freddie is 100% going into the hall as a Dodger. ATL is long gone…..
Is it up to the player? I thought that was decided by the HoF. Maybe it changed or I am remembering incorrectly but I recall a player or players (Winfield?) saying they didn’t want to have a certain cap for their plaque.
up to the players. they can elect to wear a hat with nothing on it. i’m pretty sure about that.
In most cases, players don’t get to choose the team hat they wear on their Hall of Fame plaque. The Baseball Hall of Fame makes this decision based on which team the player had the most significant impact with. This policy was implemented after instances where players were pressured to choose teams for financial or personal reasons rather than legacy impact.
The Hall’s primary goal is to represent a player’s most notable contributions to baseball accurately, so they consider various factors, including the length of tenure with each team, major accomplishments, and overall impact. However, they do consult with players to understand their preferences and feelings about the choice.
So, if Freddie were to go into the HOF today, it might be as a Brave, even after that epic World Series. He has 1,565 games as a Brave and just 467 as a Dodger. However, he has three more years on his contract and thye HOF might also consider why he left ATL. The walk off Grand Slan did not hurt his Dodger chances.
Mark, your comment appears to presume that pitchers are fungible and it’s OK to simply use them up and throw them away in the interest of velocity and spin. Andrew Friedman addressed this issue after Gavin Stone went down in September and here’s what he said:
“It’s been a really challenging year on that front and something that we’re going to need to spend a lot of time on this winter to really dig in on — from when we onboard a pitcher, when we draft or trade for him, through the development path, at the major league level,”.
MLB can’t go on doing what its doing – Albert Einstein allegedly said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
And I don’t think that effort, spin, and velo are the only things that are different. The book that you referenced (The Arm by Jeff Passan) noted other things leading to the plethora of arm injuries, including little kids being identified as pitchers and pitching year round. My own observation is that pitchers are trained differently. They simply don’t throw as much or as often, lift weights more, and run less. They train for strength and not endurance. The way to pitch more innings is simply to pitch more innings.
I have read that the Dodgers have more pitching injuries than other teams because they prize velo and spin more than other teams. Maybe true, but if so, it’s not working. In the last 5 years combined, Aaron Nola has pitched the most innings (850). None of the top 25 are Dodgers, except for Tyler Anderson (15th, with 725 innings), who was a Dodger for one season, and Lance Lynn (22nd, with 663 innings) who was a Dodger for 2 months.
My other disagreement with your comment is the “get over it” comment regarding 3 true outcomes baseball. First of all, that kind of baseball is not aesthetically pleasing. Second, MLB is trying to get away from that kind of baseball, inspiring more small ball by encouraging the stolen base, eliminating the shift to allow more singles and doubles, etc. And more teams are looking for bat-to-ball skills. Power plays of course, but there is more than one way to win.
I do not disagree with any of that, but it will be by Evolution, not Revolution, so the Get Over It part is simply that is the way it is and it won’t change overnight. The Dodgers are mightily entrenched in Speed and Spin Rate. They are also entrenched in Launch Angle and Power. I would hope to see some evolution.
Aaron Nola started pitching in Little League and have consistently avearged 92 MPH on his 4-Seamer. He has not undergone Tommy John surgery. In 2016, he experienced a right elbow strain that ended his season prematurely, leading to concerns about the possibility of requiring such surgery. However, through a dedicated rehabilitation program focusing on strengthening his arm and overall conditioning, Nola successfully avoided the procedure. Since then, he has remained a durable and reliable pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies, consistently making his scheduled starts without significant elbow issues.
All the guys you mention, including Nola average under 93 MPH on their fastball. Anderson has never had TJ, while Lynn has.
Of the top 25 pitchers in innings since 2020, #2 is Zack Wheeler (average FB 95 MPH), #3 is Corbin Burnes (average FB 94-97 MPH), #5 is Jose Berrios (average FB 95), #6 is Kevin Gausman (average FB 94 MPH), etc.
So make it illegal to throw a fastball over 95 MPH!
😉
What do you think the percentage chance that Lux is traded are?
I’d say 45%
68.3%
😉
People are overlooking Bobby Miller.
This time last year many were doing the same thing with Gavin Stone who had had a disappointing second half of 23.
He went away, got stronger, worked hard, and was our best pitcher in 24 until his unfortunate injury.
There is no reason why Miller can’t do exactly the same, he certainly has the ability, and actually until he got injured was pitching well. It was only when he came back that the wheels came off.
He has Ace like stuff when he’s on.
I sign the Japanese fella (or Flaherty if not)
I take a punt on Walker, he improved massively in the Playoffs.
Glasnow
Yamamoto
Ohtani
Sasaki / Flaherty
Buehler
Miller
Gonsolin
Kershaw
May
Wrobleski
Casparius
Still basking in World Series joy here!!
Guilty as charged.
I just excluded Miller from a list of SPs expected back next season.
My bad.
Was thinking that Ohtami must be highly unlikely to be ready to Pitch at the start of next season given that his shoulder surgery, albeit to his non pitching arm, will stop him from practicing and therefore building up the necessary arm strength before April.
Another Starting Pitcher with fitness question marks entering the 2025 season.
Not sure about that.
I think he’s highly probable to be in the opening day rotation
Bluto is WRONG again!
Watford if RIGHT again!
Per Jack Harris:
Other Dodgers news from the GM Meetings:
— Shohei Ohtani’s labrum surgery won’t have any big-picture impact on his pitching, but could push back his pitching timeline this offseason. Means he’s uncertain (if not unlikely) to be ready to pitch by opening day
— It’s a “fair bet” the Dodgers will go with a six-man rotation next year, per Gomes, given Ohtani/Yamamoto’s six-day schedules
— Related: Dodgers will be in the market for starting pitching
— Dodgers other big need is outfielders, especially with Mookie Betts moving to the IF (again I’m bemused by the lack of position specificity.)
— Re-signing Teoscar Hernández, of course, would help address their OF need. Gomes said they will be talking with his camp “ASAP”
— Dodgers will work on a contract extension for manager Dave Roberts (whose current deal is up after next year) but are focusing on the roster first·
— Despite not QO’ing him, Dodgers remain interested in Walker Buehler. Gomes said what he did in the playoffs “does not go lost on us.” But they’re gonna see how his market develops first
— Gomes declined to discuss Roki Sasaki, since he’s still under club control in Japan
Ohtani is Superman! I would be willing to bet he will be ready for Opening Day… in fact, he might be the Opening Day Starter agaisnt the Cubs in Tokyo, or maybe Game 2.
wish opening day was here. not a fan of a team’s fans not getting to see their team play. exhibition? yeah. regular season? no! and before everyone gets all in my sh-t, it’s about the money. i understand that, but it’s still wrong some 8 year old kid can’t go to opening day. oh well, that’s my 2 cents worth. … what i posted earlier, rumor is yankees in on alonzo, mets will be all in on soto. have at it boys! … Someone mentioned bobby miller earlier. with 102 in the tank, wouldn’t it be great if he could somehow become a closer? Dustin May, a setup guy? that would be awesome! Miller just needs some movement on his fastball! got everything else. …. thanks Mark for the hall of fame information. i was sure at some time?the players could pick their hat . i would think freddie needs to win one or two more for mlb to allow him to go in as a dodger. doesn’t matter! he’s a dodger now! and then they sure as hell don’t win this year without him!
Miller just needs movement on his fastball? If it was that easy he would already have it. Some pitchers have it and some don’t. Miller might never have it.
I am the poster child of that!
I swear it is genetic…
Per Ardaya:
The Dodgers are planning to move Mookie Betts back to the infield, Brandon Gomes said today.
Per Heyman:
Marlins are close to hiring a new manager. Dodgers 1B coach Clayton McCullough remains in the mix.
right now with Mookie at 2nd:
1. Ohtani DH
2. Betts 2B
3. Freeman 1B
4. Smith C
5. Muncy 3B
6. Pages RF
7. Rushing LF
8. Edman CF
9. Rojas SS
right now with Betts at SS:
1. Ohtani DH
2. Betts SS
3. Freeman 1B
4. Smith C
5. Muncy 3B
6. Pages RF
7. Lux 2B
8. Rushing LF
9. Edman CF
Do you have the audacity to doubt the veracity of a man of my capacity?
😉
While it is possible he could play SS, the Dodgers are posturing for the upcoming Free Agent, ha-seong kim:
“Well, HS, we have Mookie at SS, but we could move him to 2B for you!”
Mookie is going to play 2B!
I said it, I meant it and I’m here to represent it!
😉
I’m confused because I don’t know how to read that response, or what the fuck the emojis are for:
Is this your opinion?
Is it something you read?
Is it something you hope?
That means I’m just having fun
We need more fun!
I am having lots of it.
Rooting hard for Rushing to hit. And field. Can he be more than a platoon guy?
And let’s not write off Outman. He’s just one season removed from a .790 OPS with quality defense in CF. On most teams he likely would have been able to work out his sophomore struggles at the ML level.
Wouldn’t it be nice if both Miller and Outman rebounded in ’25?
Outman will always be a hitter who can do OK against RHP. He may not be the equal of Joc offensively, but he is dramatically better on defense and base-running and Joc cannot hit LHP either. Outman is on my roster (just not a starter).
Kershaw had surgery today per the AP’s interview with Brandon Gomes.
Which one?
He needs two.