You’ve never heard that before! Ha, Ha!
Nowhere do we see evidence of that more than with Gavin Stone. In 2022, he was the Dodgers Minor League Pitcher of the year and looked ready to take the next step. Then, after looking good in Spring Training in 2023, he laid an egg and put up a 9.00 ERA in 31 IP. The opposing batters simply beat him like a rented mule. He went back to AAA and looked better later in the season, but had a 4.74 ERA. Many Dodger fans, who were once high on him, lost faith in him and moved on. He was no longer the fickle fans flavor of the week.
It turns out, he had a lot going on: his slider and cutter (newly developed) were not working, he lost the feel for his bread-and-butter pitch (the changeup) and he was tipping his pitches. This season, he showed up with 10-15 pounds of additional muscle and now everyone is back on the Gavin Stone bandwagon. I never got off! Progress is not linear. Gavin Stone is going to be a very good pitcher and it turns out that he will be the LA Dodgers 5th starter.
As I never gave up on Gavin Stone, based upon his talent, I do not plan to give up on Miguel Vargas. Progress is not linear. Remember that! The same is true with Andy Pages… his talent will carry him a long way. I still believe in Diego Cartaya and Dalton Rushing, as well, because progress is not linear! Also, Gavin Lux looks much better at 2B. I really don’t get anyone who thinks Lux can play SS and if Andrew Friedman really thinks that, he has “brain fog.”
What Minor League Players Could “Breakout” in 2024?
I have a group of players that I am watching very closely. Actually, I have ten (in no particular order):
- Justin Wrobleski – This guy has an opportunity to be special. This will be his third year after TJ and he will rise quickly. Expect to see him in OKC by the second half of 2024.
- Thayron Liranzo – This RLH (Rather Large Human) has unlimited potential… as a catcher and especially as a hitter. He can play 1B, but not for a while.
- Andy Pages – His star faded in 2022, but he showed up in 2023 after losing a lot of weight (25+ pounds) and then he was injured and missed 2023 with shoulder surgery, only to show back up in 2024, in the same or better shape, more mature and with a bat that looks even quicker… still with “light tower power.”
- Josue De Paula – It is said he has no position – I do not agree. LF, RF, 1B, or maybe he is a DH, but there are worse fates. He has a beautiful swing and could approach superstar status. He’s that good.
- Hyun-Seok Jang – This RH’ers four-seamer sits at 93-95 mph and tops out at 97 with rise in the strike zone. He could add more velocity as he continues add strength to his 6-foot-4 frame. Also, he has an advanced feel for spin with apair of plus breaking balls: a hard 84-87 mph slider and a 76-82 mph curveball with 12-6 break.
- Maddux Bruns – I think it’s 50/50 that he harnesses his control and becomes a LH who pitches at the top of the rotation. His stuff is unquestionable. His control is defficient, but he could harness it… maybe. I’ll give you a definite maybe.
- Jose Ramos – He has good power and can play all three ouffield positions well. At worst he is a 4th or 5th outfielder. He has had difficulty with breaking stuff, but sits “dead red” on fastballs. I have seen glimpses that he might be adapting to breaking stuff.
- Jared Karros – A fan favorite, JK has the makings of a bottom-of-the rotation workhorse. He already knows how to pitch and at 6′ 7″ his long arms extend halfway to the plate. His stock is on the rise. Watch him grow.
- Samuel Munoz -A LH hitter with a sweet swing, he has a chance to be a star with his smooth, quick swing spraying the ball all over the field. He does struggle with LHP, so he could be a slower version of James Outman (except most likely as a LF’er). It’s early in his development, but this year should be interesting.
- Jake Pilarski – In the AFL, he is showed out as a closer. He does walk 4 per 9, so he has to get better there. But he he has all that closer stuff and shows a remarkable ability to adapt.
News & Notes
- Are the days of Scott Boras bullying owners over? Have they decided that the juice is not worth the squeeze? Every dog has his day…
- Blake Snell makes the Giants better… now if they get another bat or two…
- Jordon Montgomery, JD Martinez, Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, and Tommy Pham are still out there.
- I have to fly to Denver this afternoon for a couple of quick meetings at De Frisco’s, and then back to Indy at 10 AM Wednesday, so I may not post Wednesday and I doubt that I will be up early enough to watch the game.
- We are still living in an Air B & B until April 1st, but we did close on our new house, so we are anxious to get in. All of our stuff is in 7 pods. What a pain! I can’t wait to unload these things.
X-Cites
Photo Credit: Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
It is JARED Mark. Great play by Muncy yesterday. That shuts up the naysayers for a day or two. Snell has a 2-2 career record against LA. All the decisions with San Diego. He was 0-0 against them in two games in the World Series and 1-0 when they beat the Dodgers in the 22 playoffs. My sister’s hubby was not expected to survive the night. They took him off of the respirator last night at a hospital close to Dodger Stadium. Mike had a stroke about 28 years ago and has been unable to take care of himself since then.
Fixed.
Muncy looks much better after working hard over the winter and losing weight.
Sorry for your Bro-in-Law. That’s tough! Godspeed!
The Giants now have a pretty good top three in the rotation. But not much after that. Soler and Chapman give them some pop, but also a ton of swing and miss. The Dodgers depth is better than any team in the league and they get two Aces back at some point, Buehler and Kershaw, with a possibility May returns in August. Oh yeah Mark, temps in Denver in the high 50’s to low 60’s. Bring a coat. Wind is a factor. And there is still some snow on the ground.
Giants could be scary in a short playoff series with their top of the rotation guys. Over the entire season it is another thing.
Sorry for your borther in law , Bear. Always tough to lose someone in the family or a good, old friend.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
sorry Bear. where’s montgomery going to end up? would love him in baltimore! yankees getting love from lots experts , ( if cole is healthy) . yanks would love to dump Stanton if they could find someone dumb enough to take him . he’s projected to play around 90 games! another example of the yankees having to have a player just so another team doesn’t get em! so thankful he never came home to LA! really want Gavin Stone to be a stud! is it possible sheehan becomes a trade piece when he returns? if Stone is the real deal and buehler is healthy, where does Emmit fit in? can’t stash all of them in the minors! GO BARNES!
“really want Gavin Stone to be a stud! is it possible sheehan becomes a trade piece when he returns? if Stone is the real deal and buehler is healthy, where does Emmit fit in? can’t stash all of them in the minors!”
I’m rooting hard for Stone too.
They shouldn’t trade Sheehan in my opinion, I’ll use your word, I think Sheehan might become a stud.
Will they trade him? I don’t know, I’m just a guy that posts here lol.
The best thing to do with him, if there’s no room, is to have him in the minors and be the first pitcher called up when a starting pitcher injury happens.
I think Grove, Knack, Ryan, Rojas, Vargas, Cartaya and definitely Paxton are on the bubble of what you said “trade pieces”, if all goes well.
I don’t know how many of the names I mentioned that I think are going to be involved in 2 trades. But I have a feeling Paxton will be dealt at the trade deadline to a contending team that needs starting pitching, if he has a good year. AF will get a top prospect from dealing Paxton and send him to a non-contending team that wants that prospect that AF is already talking to about the second trade . He’ll add however many of the names I mentioned to that non-contending team for a star or if it’s possible, a superstar outfielder that has some years of team control. He might have to sweeten the deal by adding someone I didn’t mention. That is, if all goes well. Or I might be stupid and wishing. But I have a funny feeling.
The outfield will become that guy, Outman and Teo Hernandez or Hernandez and Heyward platoon. It just depends.
Sorry about your brother in law Bear.
We sat right in front of Gavin Stones family for his MLB debut last year in Atlanta. Very nice people! Rooting big time for all the Gavin’s this year!
And yes, Bear, sorry to hear about your brother in law
News from Internet:
Ben Clemens Chat
Josh: Dave Roberts indicated Shohei may play the field at some point this season. You buying it?
Ben Clemens: I think it makes sense as a long-term play. Reasonably speaking, the Dodgers have to assign a reasonable probability weight to Ohtani giving up pitching at some point. So doing it in a way that increases their defensive flexibility, and in a year where it won’t be impacting his rest on the pitching side, makes sense to me. He’s clearly a good enough athlete to do it
Jenny: Do you think Gavin Lux will have the breakout that was suspected before the ACL injury? And what does that look like? .270/15/10?
Ben Clemens: man, I understand why the Dodgers keep trying to make Lux happen, but at some point you have to accept that it won’t.. I think that this is it, and I’m down on a breakout, I feel like his having the yips is just a really bad sign. It’s a freaking pressure cooker in LA, that’s not ideal
Made Wiley: Crazy that the worst case scenario for the Dodgers is just putting Miggy Ro at ss, Mookie back to 2nd and they still easily win the division
Ben Clemens: Oh yeah they’re good!
Spring Breakout game follow-ons: Dodgers prospects Justin Wrobleski (1st team) and Patrick Copen (2nd team) were named to the All-Spring Breakout teams, based on the game over the weekend. Both pitchers struck out 4 in 2 scoreless innings against the Angels. OF Kendall George (3B, 2B) was named to 2nd team.
Over at Baseball Prospectus, Zach Crizer writes ($$$$) about how Teoscar Hernández saw more sliders last year than any MLB hitter ever has in a single season and what that portends for pitching.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/89052/circle-change-teoscar-hernandez-868-sliders/
“.. When he goes after the fastball he’s been roughly the equivalent of Freddie Freeman. When he goes after the breaker he’s worse than Taylor Walls”
Baseball America has their first Mock Draft. It’s almost certainly going to be badly wrong, but it’s something. It’s also ($$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-charlie-condon-jac-caglianone-make-strong-impressions/
LAD takes Bryce Rainer, a shortstop/RHP at Harvard-Westlake.
THIS ONE IS FOR BADGER.
On Twitter, Chris Bassitt thinks pitchers are getting hurt because teams are too obsessed with velocity.
“[human bodies] are made to throw 91-92 and that’s ok”
https://twitter.com/TalkinBaseball_/status/1769828174555238543
Mike Petriollo takes a look at how baseball batting orders are now being constructed:
https://www.mlb.com/news/number-2-spot-in-lineup-now-the-best-in-baseball
It starts with what we have all observed and then goes DEEP.
“Because lineups simply aren’t constructed the same way they were back in Babe’s day, when it was mainly: “Put the fastest hitter at the top, the good bat control guy second, and your best hitters third and fourth,” … For the first time in the Live Ball Era of AL/NL baseball (since 1920), the second spot in the order is more productive on a relative basis than the third spot. That actually undersells it; for the first time in that history, the second spot is the most productive spot in the order. Also for the first time, the leadoff spot is as productive as the cleanup spot. ”
Over at The Athletic, the great Andy McCullough ($$$$) writes about the upcoming Dodger season:
https://theathletic.com/5339265/2024/03/18/dodgers-shohei-ohtani-era-opening-day/
“Roberts has described anything short of a championship in 2024 as a bust. Of course, he has spoken with that confidence before. He guaranteed the Dodgers would win the 2022 World Series. That team set a franchise record with 111 victories, but crashed out of the postseason in four games. The disappointment increased the motivation to add Ohtani. Before the season, Roberts suggested his players should worry less about external noise and concentrate on individual progress. Ignoring the noise, he acknowledged, will be tougher than ever.”
FanGraphs has a series of positional rankings:
Second Base, by Ben Clemens
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-second-base/
Dodgers are at 10 (Red Sox at 17.) “This one is pretty much guesswork. The Dodgers had the best second base situation in the majors before they announced that Betts was moving to shortstop full-time after Lux had a spate of throwing issues in his spring training audition there. ”
First Base, by Jay Jaffe
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-first-base/
Dodgers at #1 (Red Sox at 8).
“if an injury does fell Freddie, it seems more likely Muncy temporarily reclaims his spot while a stronger defender mans third.”
Catcher by Kyle Kashimoto
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-catcher/
Dodgers at #4 (Red Sox at 27)
Hunter Feduccia projected to get 6 (SIX) plate appearances.
Thanks for sharing this Bluto. I’ve been a little harsh on Teo. His performance with Seattle was a roller coaster ride, but was not aware about the amount of sliders he saw last season. He should see less of them in this lineup, as there should be morebmen on base when he comes up to bat.
I’ve always felt Ohtani in LF made too much sense. Given that he does not intend to pitch this season. He’s too good of an athlete.
Test
“Test”
?
LADT was migrated to another server today and was down for a while.
Oh Ok.
Stone was #3 on my top prospect list before Outman (#1) and Sheehan (#2) graduated, and once they graduated, Stone became #1. I never gave up on him or waivered. Just sayin.
I have a top 11 list that I made in the offseason and I’m not going to give the order I have them. I’m going to use MLB Pipeline in the order they have them.
Rushing
Frasso
Pages
Ryan
Stone
Hurt
Ferris
Liranzo
Martin
Wrobleski
Kopp
Damn, there’s been a lot of off days because of the over sea trip they had to take.
Oh yeah, honorable mentions to these guys that are barely out of my top 11. I should have expanded my list to top 14 to include these guys. They would be in the order I have them here.
12 Knack
13 Gauthier
14 Cartaya
Some people are high on De Paula, but it’s too early for me.
I thank all of you for the best wishes. Mike passed away at 12:25 this morning surrounded by his family and pastor. In a way, a huge burden has been lifted from their shoulders. His stroke almost 29 years ago at such a young age deprived him of doing things like playing catch with his boys. He was always wheelchair bound or too sick to travel much. A huge burden has been lifted from the family and they are at peace with his passing.
I’m sorry to hear that, Bear, but you’re right. That is a huge burden that has been lifted.
Dodgers put four pitchers on the IL prior to tomorrow’s game. Buehler, Sheehan, Graterol and Treinen. Opens the door for Knack to make his MLB debut.
I’m sorry to hear that about your brother-in-law. I hope you get through this ok or good.
#Dodgers Opening Day Lineup:
6 AM ET vs Padres
Betts SS
Ohtani DH
Freeman 1B
Smith C
Muncy 3B
Teoscar Hernandez LF
Outman CF
Heyward RF
Lux 2B
Tyler Glasnow SP
While the Dodgers were allowed to bring 31 players on their travel roster, only 26 are able to be active for the games.
Here’s the official 26-man roster the Dodgers will be playing with on Wednesday and Thursday:
Pitchers:
Tyler Glasnow, RHP (Game 1 starter)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP (Game 2 starter)
Michael Grove, RHP
Evan Phillips, RHP
Ryan Brasier, RHP
Daniel Hudson, RHP
Kyle Hurt, RHP
Joe Kelly, RHP
J.P. Feyereisen, RHP
Landon Knack, RHP
Gus Varland, RHP
Alex Vesia, LHP
Ryan Yarbrough, LHP
Two-Way Player:
Shohei Ohtani
Catchers:
Will Smith
Austin Barnes
Infielders:
Freddie Freeman
Gavin Lux
Max Muncy
Miguel Rojas
Outfielders:
Teoscar Hernández
James Outman
Jason Heyward
Infielders/Outfielders:
Mookie Betts
Kiké Hernández
Chris Taylor
“The Dodgers will be able to activate someone off the taxi squad in the event of an injury in between the first and second game.
Those players are pitcher Gavin Stone, catcher Hunter Feduccia and infielder/outfielder Miguel Vargas.
Bobby Miller is in Korea but not among the extras.
Additionally, the Dodgers will be able to reset the roster before their domestic home opener on March 28”.
Andrew, without wanting to steal your thunder, here is the Dodgers lineup for this morning’s game:
Betts SS
Ohtani DH
Freeman 1B
Smith C
Muncy 3B
Hernandez T LF
Outman CF
Heyward RF
Lux 2B
Looking forward to this – been a long off season
Did your server get screwed up Mark? The site was down for awhile.
How many hyped players have had really bad first games in the majors. I am sure nerves played a part in Yamamoto’s meltdown. He did not have great control and he was leaving his ball in the zone. He will improve and build on this experience.
We had to migrate to a new server. It is currently messed up. We have a ticket and it should be fixed this Am.