Caleb Ferguson has a history of being left off the Dodgers Playoff Roster, and he was not happy about it. Also, if you remember, he was not happy about how the Dodgers left him on the IL when Ferguson returned earlier in 2022 after missing the 2021 season when he had Tommy John surgery. Ferguson’s last pitching appearance was on June 14, as the Dodgers shut him down and placed him on the IL with forearm tendinitis.
Ferguson thought he could pitch through the soreness, though, and after a long road back to the big leagues, the southpaw reliever expressed frustration with the decision to put him on the IL. Ferguson said this:
“There’s just been a lot of miscommunication over the last two and a half months. Yeah, I’m just kind of tired of the miscommunication of it. […] There was a lot of things in rehab that kind of got changed around and jerked around. I don’t know. There’s a lot of people involved in it. Everybody has their own voice to speak on it. I don’t know. It’s kind of a hard question without trying to be [a jerk] and call a bunch of people out.”
— Jack Harris, The LA Times
It turns out Fergie was left off the playoff roster, even though he had a 1.82 ERA in 37 appearances. History may again repeat itself as Caleb Ferguson served as the opener in the first game of yesterday’s doubleheader and promptly gave up three hits and three runs while only getting two outs. Ryan Pepiot came in and promptly picked Nate Jones off 1B to end the inning.
Caleb Ferguson is frequently very good. However, on various occasions, he is inclined to “meltdown.” His ERA is a respectable 2.90, but his WHIP is 1.39, and the league hits .256 against him. He has given up 59 Hits in 59 IP and has walked an additional 24 batters. Alex Vesia also has a high Whip and higher ERA, but there is an explanation for that: Vesia pitched very poorly in the first half of the season. Since the All-Star Break, his ERA is 2.63, and his WHIP is 0.77. Before the All-Star Break, his ERA was 6.75, and his WHIP was 2.20.
Ferguson has given up 31 hits in 28 IPs since the Break and has walked 12 while the league is hitting almost .300 against him. Caleb, If I am making the decision, you are not on the playoff roster! Yes, that will piss him off, and he will likely be traded in the offseason. I liked Caleb, but his performance is found to be lacking. Bye, Bye!
There is a chance Kyle Hurt could make the playoff roster, but I would not do that. It’s just too risky to put a kid in a position like that when he has only pitched in one game. Of course, it could work – he has filthy stuff and is destined to be a “multi-inning reliever,” but this would not be a “Freidmanesque move,” in my opinion.
Dodger News & Notes
- From Bear: OKC beat Round Rock 8-3. Hurt started and went four innings, giving up one run and striking out 8. He also walked 3. OKC jumped out to a 4-0 lead, but by the 6th, it was 4-3. Round Rock scored two runs, one earned off of Tyson Miller, who ended up getting the win. Feduccia’s homer in the bottom of the 6th made it 5-3; then the Dodgers scored 3 in the bottom of the 7th to end the scoring. Hudson, Vanasco, and Suero each finished up with a scoreless inning. Avans was the offensive star, going 4-4 with three driven in. Yonny Hernandez was the only other player with more than one hit. Vargas did not play, and Busch was 1-5. Game two is tomorrow night.
- From Michael: “Does anybody out actually think Minnesota, Arizona, Miami, Chicago gonna crapshoot their way to a WS ring? If so, I got a hundred dollars to your one they don’t.” I’ll take that bet. a $100 vs. $1 – how could I go wrong?” Who thought Philly would do what they did last year?
- Ryan Pepiot is evolving into a big-time pitcher right before our eyes – his nine Ks yesterday (in Coors, no less) were impressive.
- Could this be the playoff rotation:
Game 1 – Bobby Miller
Game 2 – Clayton Kershaw/Emmet Sheehan
Game 3 – Ryan Pepiot/Ryan Yarbrough
Game 4 – Lance Lynn/and the pen
I think it would make sense to swap your game 2 and game 3 starters.
I think there is value in having Kershaw start a road playoff game vs Pepiot.
Let Pepiot get his playoff feet wet in Dodger stadium.
Kersh has the experience and wont have the nerves that a rookie may on the road.
There is also an extra day built into the schedule for the NLDS meaning Miller and whoever your game 2 starter is can come back to pitch games 4 and 5. Miller can go game 1 and 4 on regular rest,
I guess if you want Kersh to be available for Game 5 you throw him game 2, but I don’t know if that would be wise.
Buckle up going to be a fun ride.
I would have no problem leaving Fergie off the playoff roster because I don’t trust him, plain and simple. Do I trust Alex Vesia? No, not really, but I distrust him less than Fergie, plain and simple.
I agree TM,leave him off. Any pressure put on Ferguson by the opposing team,he usually “folds like a cheap suit”. Not that I ‘m a huge fan of Vesia either,but I trust him a slight bit more. Unfortunately those are only two left handed bullpen options. options in 2023.
Kersh will get the start at home. The fans deserve that. The two best pitchers on the team to put you up a possible 2-0 advantage heading on the road. Freidman is not going to be bothered by Ferguson. If Fergie gets pissed, so be it. He has not pitched that great the last few weeks. He gave up the winning runs in the first inning. Give the Rocks pitching a little credit for holding the offense down. Smith’s hitting woes continued in game 2. He went 0-5 and was the only player who did not reach base.
The fans deserve to win.
So if Kersh not going game 2 puts the team in the best spot to advance thats what shouold be done.
Not saying one way or the other is better, but I think it should be looked at.
Depends on where game 3 is. Right now, it would be the Cubs or Brewers. CK is 3-3 at Wrigley. He is 5-1 at Miller Park. He has an excellent ERA at Miller of 1.54. It is over 3 in Wrigley. If they are playing the Brewers, I would say ok, the Cubs, not so much. If the Reds or Marlins snuck in there, He is 4-0 in Cincy and 3-2 in Miami. By far the worst park for him is Az. 8-11. He is 1-1 in Atlanta and 3-3 in Philly.
That is fair. I just trust Kersh on the road in a hostile environment a bit more…
But I trust in the front office to do what they think gives the club the best chance to advance.
Okay, I hate openers.
Yes, Ferguson was bad, very bad.
Sometimes Caleb is good, other times he folds. You need consistency in the playoffs. So I leave him off the October roster.
Good candidate for a winter trade.
Pepiot was impressive.
Excellent column today by Dylan Hernandez (With Trout, Time to Fish or Cut Bait). Speaks volumes about long term contracts and the risks they bring. Trout is a great player who is having a tough time staying on the field.
Will the Angels trade him? Would he waive his no trade clause? Should the Dodgers pursue him if the Angels pick up a big portion of the contract and he’s available for $20 million a year. Seven years left on the contract. Would Artie Moreno ever consider trading his star to the LA team? I’m guessing not, but who knows.
I think you’ve figured out the playoff starting rotation. Looking ahead to October, it would appear there a lot more potential playoff teams that have big flaws. Only Atlanta looks formidable.
Wong over Peralta?
No way, Chemistry counts.
That would be the Wong choice.
LOL
No way.
David Peralta is hitting .136 in the last 15 games, while Kolen Wong is hitting .217 in the same period.
Both are LH. Peralta can play LF and RF. Wong can only play 2B.
Let’s go a bit further.
Kolten Wong has hit .188 in 35 playoff games.
David Peralta has hit .211 in 20 playoff games.
I go with Peralta simply because of the lockerroom stuff!
Peralta is an integral part of this tight knit team, and has helped out a lot this year
Id want him on all playoff series rosters
I’m not so sure.
Peralta is back to slap hitting. Maybe a couple of doubles, no homers.
For all of Peralta’s position flexibility, Wong’s a better defender.
Wong has more pop in his bat.
Peralta can still be on the bench, doing his “team” stuff.
Oh boy, Fergie or Vesia, I’ll take the later. Vesia has some nasty stuff and he has been throwing strikes lately. Fergie not so much. It would not bother me at all if they traded Ferguson this winter. I think Yarbrough and Vesia as the lefty’s out of the pen is fine.
* There is absolutely no way I don’t have Peralta on my playoff roster in favor of Wong. I think Mookie, CT3, Kike, and Rosario are plenty of 2nd basemen.
* Could have no problem leaving Caleb off the playoff roster in favor of Stone perhaps. What I do know is Fergie would never ever see the opener role again. But a 3rd LHP in the pen with Yarbrough and Vesia would be nice. Vesia, as I mentioned yesterday, has been better lately. If Caleb doesn’t like it, I have some advice – pitch better.
* For the life of me I don’t understand the contact play. Organizations distain the bunt, as giving up a precious out, yet they send the runner from third on contact into an easy out at home on a ground ball.
I’ve had this conversation before with posters here but not in awhile. I think the contact play is order in only one situation. Runners on 1st and 3rd with the infield at double play depth. The runner at 3rd breaks home on the ground ball forcing a throw home, to avoid the round the horn double play. If he’s a dead duck, his job is to get into a rundown and try to make the out by the catcher, to end up with runners on 2nd and 3rd. You take the out at home to get 2 runners in scoring position.
Yesterday we ran JDM, of all people, on contact with runners on 2nd and 3rd and infield 1/2 way. It was a needless, easy out at home. Just a donation. It left runners at 1st and 3rd with 2 outs; hardly an outcome worth the out. I sure would prefer both runners staying put and read the play. The old advice “Make the Ball Be Through” is still the preferred play for my money. Take the out at 1st, leaving runners at 2nd and 3rd, with 2 outs.
I’ve had that argument and expressed my option with other coaches both pro and college. Many young college coaches love the play and I don’t get it. I don’t expect a decent infielder to throw the ball away often enough to justify the risk.
I hate the contact play.
This Wildcard format has sure kept interest in Arizona, Chicago, Miami, Cincinnati, Toronto, Houston and Seattle. It’s going to come right down to the wire .From now on we can expect the conversation of the advantage or disadvantage of a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Is 5 days off good or bad? The answer seems to be if you win the round it was a good thing. If you lose, like last year, it’s a bad thing. Does playing competitive games to the end keep the team sharp or does it wear the team down causing fatigue and loss of sharpness?
In 2022 we won 111 games and rested. We tried to stay sharp with scrimmages and faux-games. We lost our opening round to the Padres in 4 games. So did every Division winner but Houston.
In 2021, we won a 106 games and played down to the wire in meaningful games trying to chase down the Division winning Giants, at 107 wins. We won the playoff opener against St Louis, beat the Giants in 5 games and lost to the Braves in 6 games. That’s 12 playoff games and some speculated we were tired and worn down after all the loser-out games.
So the answer to the rest versus playing question is? I don’t friggin know. The outcome is the temporary correct answer.
I do know that Will Smith needs some rest. He looks like he’s swinging underwater on that inside pitch that he usually rakes. He’s not a big guy and the wear and tear has effected him. The 5 days off have to benefit him. That’s another reason I’d like to see him try some 3rd base.
We’ll see how the prognosticators view the rest vs play question this year.
Great analysis Phil.
Absolutely, the one person who should be resting more is Will Smith. No reason to make him catch another game….use him as a DH if you want, but not catcher. I know LA probably thinking 5 days off is all the rest he needs but I’m not so sure that is enough for his position. Two weeks sounds much better to me.
Phillips also needs some time off to get stronger. He has lost a little recently. Rest up bud.
Lastly, I’d give FREDDIE a few days off too. I know he wants his 100 RBIs, but he’s over 30…rest can be rejuvenating for those old bones. Lol
What the heck does WCE mean in wildcard standings Im trying to find out. I hope it comes down to Vesia and Ferguson on who gets left out. Other then one of the two would be Grove which could happen due to lefty righty thing. I much prefer Grove. Your on Mark be fun taking your dollar
Wild Card Elimination
8:40 PM ET
Dodgers (97-60)
Rockies (57-100)
SP Emmet Sheehan R
3-1 5.13 ERA
SP Noah Davis R
0-3 8.77 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
2B Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
DH J. Martinez R
RF J. Heyward L
CF James Outman L
LF D. Peralta L
SS Miguel Rojas R
82° Wind 8 mph Out
Yeah I know what it stands for. Don’t how it’s calculated and what the number means. Even googled it and couldn’t find a good explanation. That’s our best lineup in my opinion. Always excited to watch our rookies pitch. We got some good ones
Its calculated the same as Game back in the division standings but in this case you take the team that is in the last seed which currently is the Cubs with 82 wins and 75 losses. So San Diego has 78 wins and 80 losses.
Formula Example = (82 Cubs wins – 78 SD Wins) = 4 + ( 80 SD Losses – 75 Cubs losses) = 5. So 4 + 5 = 9. Then you take that number and multiply it by .5.
Formula in action (9 * .5 ) = 4.5
I plug those numbers in and that gives you why San Diego is 4.5 WCGB in the wild card standings.
I hope that makes sense
All I know is that if you don’t play in the wild card round you can’t go home after the first round. I’ll go with that.
Think we all knew Miller is something but it’s pleasant to see all of Pepiot, Sheehan and Grove rapidly getting better each time out. For me anyway all four will be huge in how far we go in October and that excites me to no end. Also think with our young pitching plus signing a quality lefty starter gotta make us favored going in to next year. Sure is good to be a dodger fan
Never a better time!
Let’s roll!
Well said Michael
Michael, as it was planned by AF, take this young pitching, hopefully add Walker Buehler and Dustin May and you’ve got a powerful starting rotation sometime down the road. I think a quality LHRP is a necessity next year either from within or via trade. Our current LHRP is sub par. In fact our 3 leftie bullpen pieces are 9th, 10th and 11th most effective relief pitchers on our current staff versus LHB. We have 7 RHRP with better numbers vs LHB. Our best LHP vs LHB, not surprisingly, is Kershaw, a starter. LHB hit .162 vs CK. That’s why I think he’s a thought as a bullpen piece in the playoffs, using his limited innings. Necessity is the Mother of Invention.
Wednesday schedule
Oklahoma City will host the entirety of this series no matter how long it lasts. They can close things out in Game 2 on Wednesday night (5:05 p.m. PT) with Gavin Stone on the mound. Rangers minor league right-hander Owen White starts for Round Rock.
Yeah truthfully I kinda forgot about Buehler and May. Maybe it’s cause don’t have a lot of expectations after a second tommy John. Rarely do they find their old form but sure be rooting for em. That’s a lot of righties and no lefties as of yet for next year. Not sure or have I looked for lefty free agents out there. No telling what happens with Clay but don’t believe he’d be ok coming out of pen. Even with him being my still active favorite pro athlete got to accept the end is near but how sweet it is him wearing dodger blue all these years
A couple of days ago I mentioned Vesia would not make the playoff roster and the LHP RP roles would be handled by Ferguson and Yarborough. After yesterday’s opener by Ferguson I just don’t think he has it in him to getting big time outs in a playoff game. I’ve changed my mind, Vesia should make it and Ferguson should not,
Phil I kinda Missed read your post. Having Clay coming out of pen this post season could be a great idea if only had a experienced at least close to elite starter or two but we don’t, Lynn doesn’t fall into that category. Man if Lynn gives up two homers with runners on with us facing playoff pitching its most likely game over for the other team. Who else would they start all rookies. That would be very bold on dodgers part. Gosh let the fun begin. Must admit I wanna a parade so bad and I let losing bother me way more than it should. I love the dodgers and don’t get to talk about em much so thanks to anyone who bothers to read my lame opinions and thanks to all who take the time for me to read what fellow fans might be thinking
Michael, I previously mentioned a radical approach with the Dodger pitching where the only actual starting pitcher in the traditional sense is Miller. And maybe Lynn with a short leash and not his usually 6 innings and 99 pitches. My “one-time through” idea is piggy-backing pitchers so practically no one is expected to be seen by the opposition more then twice, and mostly once. Our lack of starting pitching and our strong depth could be our advantage.
I’m not predicting this will happen. I just wouldn’t be surprised if we see a different approach used. Pepiot, for example has a 1.85 ERA, .227 vs RHB and .125 vs LHB. He could be used after an opener in relief against a left-hand dominate line up. Brasier, Graterol and Kelly will be counted on in big spots.
It’s like football. You need to get the ball in the play-maker’s hands. We need to get the ball in the bullpen’s hands in the right spots.
I might be all wet.
I think we see a little of everything. So it will be great if the guys perform
Sign Snell.
I would like a Snell signing but we have Walker B. and May coming back. Maybe we could use the money a 3rd baseman
May had his second TJ surgery in July. Doubt very seriously that he makes it back next year. They are not counting on him or Gonsolin in 24.
Bear, I did say “down the road” as I don’t expect either back next season.
My bad, I misread what you wrote. Happens when you get my age. No need to rush him.
Karros made an observation, and I have noticed lately also. Freeman has got his hits,but has been swinging at pitches out of the zone much more frequently, he didn’t mention strikeouts, but it seems to me he’s striking out a lot more also
If Cubs hang on and win, SD eliminated tonite
Let’s Go Cubbies!!!!
UGH. not tonite
Cubs blew it in the 10th. Acuna stole his 70th base. Giants beating SD. 1-0.
Cubs stink….choke again and again…
Braves know how to win in the clutch too.
I still want them in the playoffs rather than Miami or the Reds. Padres are toast as are the Giants. Miami beat the Mets tonight and are in a dead heat with the Cubs. If they were to finish tied, Marlins have the tiebreaker beating the Cubs in 4 of their 6 games.
23 home runs as a rookie. Pretty damn good.
I’ve been high on Sheehan since 2021 and he’s looking pretty damn good.
2021 – that was when he had a 16.20 ERA at Great Lakes?
Or the 4.14 ERA at RC?
Or the 4.23 ERA at BC?
You have quite an eye!
Because I believe E.R.A is a flawed stat. I look elsewhere.
But thank you.
It can be flawed for relievers. Vesia has been trying to drop his for months. But usually with starting pitchers it is more accurate. I checked his innings, and he did not pitch much in those early seasons, so it is quite possible that one bad outing made all the difference.
The Dodgers should hire you!
You have a gift!
Should I be worried that this “after the fact?”
Nope you should not be worried.
I have said several time here since the off-season between 2021 and 2022 seasons that I was high on Sheehan.
A matter of fact, I remember telling you last year a few times that I was high on Sheehan whenever you brought his name up.
OK… I’ll let it slide! 😉
OKC up 5-2 top of the 8th inning in OKC. Busch with a 3-run homer. DeLuca homered too. Vargas 0-4. Outman with a homer and a bunt single. Correction, bottom of the 8th.
OKC wins 5-2. Stone went 6.1 innings, struck out 10, walked 2 allowed 2 runs and 4 hits. He got the win and Suero got the save. They advance to the AAA Championship game. Avans and Busch were both 2-4. Busch and DeLuca drove in all of the runs with 3 and 2 run shots respectively. They await the winner of the Norfolk-Durham series which is tied at one apiece.
The Dodgers do not have many LHP in the system right about now:
Ronan Kopp is a 6’6″ LH destined for the pen as a high-leverage guy (ETA 2025/late 2024).
Justin Wrobleski is a 6′ 1″ LH starter who can be a middle-of-the-rotation starter. I like him a lot (ETA 2025/late 2024).
I would give Matt Snell a 3-year overpay if I were AF.
Is Rooney strictly a reliever? He has made quite a few starts.
He used to be a starter. This year, he transitioned into a reliever.
He only started one game. He relieved in 52.
He is in my Top 30 (barely).
Yeah I went to his baseball reference page and checked. He started 17 games in 22.
Matt Snell was a running back for the NY Jets as I recall, Blake Snell is a Padre pitcher soon to be a FA.
Five out of four would make the same mistake.
That’s a joke, son!
.252 BA and .800 OPS. God I hope he ends up with .250 + BA and .800 + OPS.
Great rookie season.
Freddie gets HR #28 and drives in 3 to get to 101 RBI’s. This is the first time since they have been in Los Angeles that three players have 100 RBIs or more. Martinez has 98 and if he gets to 100, it would be the first time in Dodger history having four players with 100 RBIs.
BANG!
C B Bucknor is still one of the worst umpires in the majors. He missed so many calls, on both sides. The guy should be fired. I find it a little amazing that a guy with Outman’s speed has only 16 doubles. Peralta has 24. Heyward has 23. Mookie and Freddie have 98 combined.
Some guy on youtube said that Miller, Pepiot and Sheehan each set personal career highs in Ks in these last three starts.
At any rate, I count the emergence of Pepiot and Sheehan as the most promising, exciting development for these Dodgers heading into the postseason. The cavalry has arrived!
Another nice game for Outman. Yes, it seems a bit odd that he hasn’t hit more doubles, but he used his speed today with the bunt single and the steal. Last time I checked the vast majority of his HRs come against righties, while against lefties he seems to focus on just putting the ball in play. Still a lot of Ks overall, but his OBP is near .350.
I was pleased to see that Peralta and his mediocre OPS was finally moved down in the batting order, below both Heyward and Outman.
Smith was still batting third despite his recent struggles. Depending on the pitcher, I’d rather see JDM or Max there. Smith’s OBP was close to .400 early in the season, and his walks outnumbered his Ks. But in the last 30 days, the OBP is .313, and he has 16 Ks against 9 walks. His OPS over that period is .642.
Realizing this won’t be popular, I don’t think we sign a left-handed pitcher. Looking in the National League there isn’t a lineup that is a big left-handed hitting team. I hope Kershaw comes back. If he goes five innings a game with a 2.50 Era and a 1 WHIP, he can be effective. For years he has saved the bullpen it’s time they cover his back. The cutters pitchers are throwing now have as much break as a screwball, the ball just doesn’t dive like a screw ball.
Thoughts on moving Smith to 2nd base (think Biggio,) Lux can play third and should adjust well. He has seen balls hit on that side of the infield his whole career. Rojas deserves plenty of rope at shortstop.
Mark, don’t look now but I think our bullpen is now number one.