Which Rookie Will Make the Biggest Impact?

Posted By on May 12, 2023

That is a question many Dodger fans would love to have an answer for. The last couple of games, Miguel Vargas has begun to look more like the player that the Dodgers have liked so well for the last several seasons in the minor leagues. He has hit the ball a lot harder than in the month before.

Outman’s power has not been evident the last several games and his K rate has been high. But he is still adjusting to the way pitchers are adjusting to him. Homers will come, and so will the extra base hits. He just needs to keep to the plan and be aggressive when needed and patient that the results will come.

I do not see Michael Busch as getting a whole lot of playing time before he is shipped back when Martinez comes off of the IL. But the kid has a future. His at bats have been pretty good, but he needs to be playing every day and I only see that opportunity coming at OKC.

I think rookies will have a very good chance of making contributions in the pitching staff. Ryan Pepiot’s season pretty much got ruined with his injury, same for Michael Grove. But I liked what I saw from Gavin Stone and chalk up the 5 runs to nerves. He is going to be a beast.

Some of the pitchers in the minors might get look see’s this year. Bryan Hudson and Nick Robertson have been pitching well at OKC. Some fans want to see Bobby Miller, who has pitched in just one game. Some veteran arms are doing well down there also but will probably not get the call.

Yonny Hernandez could get called up if they have another injury to an infielder. He is hitting .333 at OKC. But it is doubtful any other OKC player gets the call unless there is an extreme emergency need. I also cannot see any AA player cracking the roster anytime soon. Although John Rooney is very intriguing.

So, if I were to say which rookie will make the biggest impact, I would have to say, Outman. Playing almost every day, with his defensive skills, and power at the plate, he can change a game with one swing or great play. Will it be so? Only time will tell. Right now, and it is extremely early, he is the leading ROY candidate. Arizona’s Carroll is hitting for a higher average, but with less power and RBI’s. Carroll is more of a contact type hitter, so it is logical that his average is higher.

But I also believe that Vargas is continuing to figure it out, and as his thumb heals, I think the power will come, and so will the average climb to a more respectable number. I really want to see how this kid adapts as the season goes on. He is very fun to watch, and while not a gold glove defender yet, he seems to have improved at the position since the season started.

This article has 53 Comments

  1. Bobby Miller got hit hard again last night. After his first game which was really good he now has had two clunkers.
    Hope he figures it out quickly.
    Cartaya really struggling in AA but Rushing is killing it at RC.
    Anyobdy know how Frasso is doing after being taken out in his last outing ?

    Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    2. Bobby Miller is NOT ready for prime time. Last night’s line at Oklahoma City: 3.1IP 3H 4R 4ER 2BB 2K 1HR 8.64 ERA 68 pitches 43 strikes 63% strikes 1 pitch clock violation.

    3. Rushing is killing it but he’s at Great Lakes this year, no longer at Rancho.
      Could very well move up to Tulsa by mid season.

  2. * As per our chats yesterday about pitchers and durability There’s no explaining who’s going to break down and who isn’t. Analyzing mechanics is used to predict future problems but it’s still a crapshoot.
    * I saw Aroldis Chapman yesterday for the Royals. 14 years in and still at 102mph. He wasn’t good but he was still at 102 after 14 years. How? He got hit on his slider. Go figure.
    * Joe Kelly worked for the Sox. Still a hundo but prefers to throw 88 mph change ups now and not 24 sliders in a row. Joe or Joseph, you never know which one your going to get? Still a knucklehead.
    * Then you have freaks like Nolan Ryan who rode The Express for 27 MLB seasons.
    And other guys with seemingly clean mechanics breakdown and have a Tommy John or two early in their careers. Speed kills. But not everybody.

    * I’ve mentioned before that if I was coaching now days, I’d be at the middle schools basketball practices and getting chummy with those coaches and asking if any of their tall kids ever pitched. The size of today’s pro pitchers continues to amaze me. So get those tall youngsters started with proper mechanics. They have no future in the NBA but do in baseball.
    The problem is many high school basketball coaches want their kids playing hoops year around leaving no time for baseball.
    * Fall ball is amazing. The is one 6’4”, 6’5″’, 6’6” guy after another, all at 95+ with a tight little breaking ball. I started following a relief RHP in AA with the Angels named Ivan Armstrong. He’s 22, 6’5”, 247 and an easy 100. He still struggle a little with command, like many taller pitchers. But physically, I never seen so many big, strong guys on the mound all throwing gas.
    * The Royals won on a perfect walk-off safety squeeze by the way.
    * I don’t know if you’ve seen it but baserunners are now using an extended oven mitt. I’m sure we will see a rule on that when they get over a foot long.

    1. I also am surprised by the height of some of these guys. But many are not quick to the plate allowing runners to steal easily. Dodgers have a couple of tall guys. Big D was 6’5″. But his delivery was very deceptive so he was not easy to run on.

  3. Bear, I saw Sam Hjelle pitch in Spring Training. He’s 6’11”. He hands the ball to the catcher. While he doesn’t light up the gun, his perceived velocity has to be up there. For every foot of release closer to home, it’s 3 mph in perceived velocity.
    You’re right about them taking longer to unwind and get the ball to the catcher. So pitch out. Nobody pitches out anymore and the game is full of rabbits. Try a slide step to vary the looks. More backpicks and timing picks help when a pitcher is slower to the plate. Don’t sit back an watch the track meet.

  4. 05/11/23 Los Angeles Dodgers activated DH J.D. Martinez from the 10-day injured list.
    05/11/23 Los Angeles Dodgers optioned RHP Wander Suero to Oklahoma City Dodgers.
    05/11/23 Los Angeles Dodgers optioned 2B Michael Busch to Oklahoma City Dodgers.

    There is one opening on the active roster for a pitcher and I’m assuming it will be Ferguson coming off paternity leave.

  5. Don’t tell anyone: Andy Pagés is ready for MLB.
    The Dodgers wait for Thompson to resolve their strugless, if he does Pagés will come until 2024, if Thompson does not he will be released and Pagés will come this year.

    2. Pages is at AA Tulsa. No way that kid comes to the majors without spending time at AAA. He is not lighting up AA ball. Hitting .280 with 3 homers, 24 RBI’s. He is OPS’ing over ,900. But he is not ready in any way shape or form for the show.

          2. OK Bum, when was the last time a position player came up from AA??? A position player, not a pitcher. AF has never done that. Until Pages gets some time at AAA, he is not getting the call to the majors. Bank on it.

  6. Thursday scores
    Oklahoma City 9, Round Rock 5
    Tulsa 5, Springfield 3
    Lake County 6, Great Lakes 5
    Rancho Cucamonga 4, Stockton 3

    Friday schedule
    3:35 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Ronan Kopp) at Lake County (Will Dion)
    5:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Matt Andriese) at Round Rock (Robert Dugger)
    5:05 p.m.: Tulsa (Landon Knack) vs. Springfield (Logan Gragg)
    6:30 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Payton Martin) vs. Stockton (Yehizon Sanchez)

  7. Dodgers should learn from the Atlanta Braves on how to both draft players and develop them to be successful. Dodgers seem much more incompetent at one or both. Agree or disagree?

    1. Disagree. The big difference between the Braves and Dodgers is that the Braves promote their players to the ML roster a lot quicker

    2. Disagree. The Dodgers do a great job drafting considering their position in the draft and do a great job developing players. They have straightened out their International situation by hiring competent people to scout ,draft and sign premium players. The results of that effort will show in future years. The pipeline is full of quality young International players.AF just made a trip to Japan to scout Japanese players and in the offseason we will see some results from that trip.

    3. Totally disagree. Dodgers do not rush their prospects. And usually there are less growing pains at the MLB level when the Dodgers promote a player. Braves do not have the financial resources the Dodgers have to keep players if they really want to.

  8. David Vassegh
    @THEREAL_DV
    J.D. Martinez and Caleb Ferguson are back active. Michael Busch and Wander Suero have been optioned to OKC. #Dodgers

  9. Disagree; in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, the Braves averaged 92 losses per season. They are reaping the benefits that drafting high gives you.

    1. TM: Let me go a little further on disagreement by giving you some facts:

      1. Current MLB.com farm system rankings, Dodgers #2, Braves #30

      2. Keith Law (the guy considered to be one of, if not, the best talent evaluators) top 100 prospects. Dodgers (8), Braves (0). MLB.com top 100 prospects. Dodgers (7), Braves (0)

      3. Rookies of the year for the past 10 years. Dodgers (2), Braves (2)

      4. Current rookies in the starting lineup. Dodgers (2), Braves (0)

      Last year was a great year for Braves rookies (Harris & Strider), but beyond that, it is not even close. When you add what Mark said about draft position in the past 10 years, the Dodgers being the best at both drafting and developing is further supported.

  10. 10:10 PM ET

    Padres (19-19) 4 GB
    Dodgers (23-15) 1st place

    SP Blake Snell L
    1-5 4.89 ERA 35IP 39K
    SP Dustin May R
    4-1 2.68 ERA 40.1IP 29K

    Confirmed Lineup
    RF Mookie Betts R
    1B F. Freeman L
    C Will Smith R
    DH J. Martinez R
    LF Chris Taylor R
    3B Max Muncy L
    2B M. Vargas R
    SS Miguel Rojas R
    CF T. Thompson R

    Clear-day
    0% Rain
    67° Wind 7 mph Out

    NO Outman

  12. It’s great that Vargas’s offense is improving. In an interview, Roberts said that his thumb injury led to some bad habits which persisted after the thumb was healed.
    But anyone who thinks Vargas has found his mojo and that Outman is losing his should take a look at stats on recent performance on MLB.com.
    Over the last seven days, both Vargas and Outman have had 18 ABs. (Yes, small samples, but that’s kind of the point here. Unfortunately, these stats don’t include plate appearances, which would provide a better framework for comparison.) Vargas had two HRs in those 18 ABs but no other hits, producing .111 BA and OPS of .644. Outman had 5 hits, including 1 HR and two doubles. His OBP and OPS register at healthy .381 and .937.

    If we expand comparison to the past 15 days, Vargas has been better. His OPS was .908 while Outman’s was a still respectable .827. On the other hand, Outman has been better at getting on base, with a .388 OBP compared to Vargas’s .286. Outman has struck out a lot more than we’d like, but he is getting his hits and walks. He led the Dodgers in runs over this period with 11 while Vargas led in RBIs with 13.
    It is pleasantly surprising that Outman has kept his OBP up despite his high strikeout rate. Early in the season, Vargas had a freakishly high walk rate which had me hoping that he might be a great on-base guy. (Superfreakish: Trayce’s 3 HR day.) But the trend is in the wrong direction.

    1. I am not rooting for anyone to lose their mojo. Hopefully they can find more, but there are two things at work here:

      1. You can spin it any way you want but Outman’s strikeout rate and BA are not convergent! They are unsustainable. I am enjoying it while I can, and

      2. If you read MLBTA, you would have read this:
      The club’s confidence in Vargas seems to be paying off so far. He’s walked in 14.6% of his plate appearances while striking out at just a 19% clip. He’s launched four home runs and his .219/.338/.430 batting line amounts to a 113 wRC+. That’s despite a .247 BABIP that’s well below this year’s .297 league average. His Statcast metrics aren’t quite as strong as Outman’s, but it still seems like luck-based regression should work in his favor, given his .265 xBA.

      Damn I hope you are right in your little bitch gloats, but my 60 years of knowing baseball tells me you are not!

      1. Are you likening me to a little bitch now?
        I’m OK with your opinion, since your opinions are so often wrong. Seriously, why should I care? But I hope you noticed that MLBTA currently calculated Vargas’s walk rate with plate appearances, while you had previously used ABs to inflate Outman’s strikeout rate.
        Watch and learn, because progress is not linear. Even Ray Charles can see that.
        So yes, Vargas seems to have been a bit unlucky with his BABIP. Never said he wasn’t. It was you who repeatedly has insisted that luck is a big factor in Outman’s success, which demeans all of his hard work. Unfortunatley, we should note that Vargas’s current OBP is inflated by t should also be clear that his walk rate is still inflated by the freakishly high number of walks he had early in the year. At one point, he actually had more walks than ABs. Outman, despite his high strikeout rate, has maintained a better OBP even while Vargas started hitting.
        Hey, I noticed that MLBTA did not describe Vargas’s defense as “stellar,” but rather….

        “The defensive picture is a little less rosy, however, as he has negative grades from all three of DRS, UZR and OAA so far. That’s not terribly shocking since he was primarily a third baseman in the minors and his experience at the keystone is minimal. Perhaps his glovework at second will improve with more reps, but the club might also consider a position change in the future.”

        Thanks for sharing the link. I sure wish the Dodgers had been grooming more infield prospects. The Giants seem to have a great one in Casey Schmitt.

        1. Screw all the intellect as it seems to take away from enjoying the game. My eyeballs tell me who I like seeing come up to bat at the most intense time. And I’m fairly certain stats could back that up, but I don’t know that as I don’t look up stats. Stats come to me by me observing the game. The most important stat is the win and there’s no need of a sheet there.

  13. Don’t like Trace in the line-up vs the Padres. He’s become an automatic bs LHPs.

    Hopefully Muncy will produce, he was quiet last week vs Padres.

  15. Hopefully Busch improves his 3rd base skills back at OKC, but still frustrating ’cause his bat has nothing left to prove in AAA.

  18. 2 K’s and a double play with runners at third and less than 2 outs. Frustrating! Could haunt us later

  20. Beating a dead horse, but u-kno-who with a 3-0 count still manages to strike out w/runner on base.
    What is AF actually thinking here?

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