Yesterday, I wrote that it all starts with Freddie and Mookie, and right on cue, after that segue, Mookie and Freddie were both 3-5! They don’t have to do it all, but when they are doing well, the team seems to follow. I have been waiting for David Peralta to catch fire… and we are seeing signs of that. Jason Heyward is also hitting the ball very well and playing defense Gold Glove in RF. If Mookie moves to SS, and I absolutely believe he should, Heyward could be the everyday starter in RF, against LHP and RHP.
Trea Turner called Mookie Betts a “Freak” and said that when Lux went down he thought Mookie might be the SS:
“I kind of thought that would happen once I saw the Luxy news, which was very unfortunate. I thought that would be a possibility, just because he’s a freak.”
–Trea Turner
It’s clear to me that with Jason Heyward set to replace Mookie’s defense in RF, the Dodgers are a better team with Mookie at SS. James Outman is a very good (maybe even great someday) Centerfielder who will only get better with experience. I only worry about his strikeout rate and BABIP (both of which are unsustainable – more about that later). Mookie rises to a challenge and what if he knew that moving to SS could win him another Gold Glove and Silver Slugger as a SS?
It also appears that the Dodger Brass does not believe that Will Smith’s career could be in jeopardy if he gets another concussion or two, and Smith and Barnes are very good to excellent MLB catchers. That leaves the Dodgers as a very strong defensive team up the middle. Vargas is a better second-baseman than Lux (I know that will ruffle some feathers). Vargas has a .979 FP, and Lux has a .973 FP in his career. I would not move Vargas. He is the Dodger’s second baseman. That he has not hit as expected is injury-related as he has played through two hand injuries and is still feeling the effects of the second one (a thumb injury). It’s hard to hit with authority when your top thumb hurts every swing. His stellar defense is why he is not on the IL… well that and his OB%, which is still respectable.
The Role BABIP Plays
One other thing that we need to look at is BABIP. BABIP measures a player’s batting average exclusively on balls hit into the field of play, removing outcomes not affected by the opposing defense (namely home runs and strikeouts). For example, a hitter who goes 2-for-5 with a home run and a strikeout would have a . 333 BABIP. No single stat is perfect. Some people think RBIs and BA with RISP are misleading, as are saves. I think all stats are useful, when not taken in a vacuum. Generally, if a player’s BABIP is well-below the major league average, we can conclude that he has experienced some amount of bad luck. Sometimes the player is making good contact, but his batted balls simply aren’t finding holes in the defense. However, that’s not always the case.
.300 is considered an average BABIP, but superstars may have a BABIP of .350. The best player in baseball, Mike Trout, has a career BABIP of .347. James Outman’s career MLB BABIP is .448. The difference is that Mike Trout strikes out 27% of the time. James Outman strikes out 44% of the time! If James Outman keeps up that BABIP, he will be the greatest player in the game, strikeouts be damned. I hope his strikeouts do go down, but there is no way on God’s Green Earth his BABIP will be above .350… if that! The player with the most hits in the history of baseball has a .319 BABIP.
James Outman’s BABIP is going to come down… a lot! Some people have taken umbrage that I have indicated that James Outman is lucky, BUT THE STATS PROVE IT! Joc Pederson has a career BABIP of .268, but as a LH Specialist, he gets paid about $20 Mil a year! He also has a 25% strikeout ratio. What happens when James Outman’s BABIP drops a hundred points (and it will)? He will have to cut down his strikeouts if he wants to play every day.
On the other hand, Miguel Vargas is hitting .202 (albeit with a .346 OB%), and some people are openly talking about sending him back to OKC. HELLO! His strikeout rate is 22%, while his BABIP is .237. Maybe he is just a bad player (Even Ray Charles could see that, because he can’t see), or maybe he is just unlucky… or maybe he is just unlucky and has an injured thumb that makes swinging a bat difficult. As Vargas gets healthy, his BABIP will go up, and luck will even out… just like it will for James Outman. James Outman is not a leadoff hitter… at least not now. He is going to have to evolve. Can he? I think he can, and he is one of my favorite players. I love watching him play. This is not disrespecting JO – it’s just a dose of reality!
The reason I have predicted that Alex Verdugo will win a batting title (s) is he has a BABIP of .320 and a strikeout rate of 15%. He is hitting .311 with an OB% of .379 as we speak, but no, I would not trade him for Mookie!
For the record, here are my TOP TEN Dodger Players (starting Wednesday), in order:
- Clayton Kershaw – G.O.A.T.
- Gavin Stone – What potential!
- Julio Urias – I have been driving this wagon forever
- Max Muncy – I love gritty junkyard dogs
- James Outman – Mr. Excitement
- Will Smith – He has made himself into an offensive force
- Miguel Vargas – I love the kid and his bat-to-ball skills. The defense has iced it for me.
- Freddie Freeman – Mr. Smooth
- Trayce Thompson – Probably not on the team by the end of the year, but he has worked hard to get where he is at for his whole career
- Alex Vesia – I love his intensity and passion
There you have it. I can’t wait until Wednesday. I want to get “Stoned.” BTW, it was a nice win last night. I went to bed early but watched the rest this AM. My sleep schedule is whacked, as I guess I was under sedation for about 4 hours yesterday.
Back Update
I woke up at 2:30 AM with my incision bleeding – I probably lost three or four tablespoons of blood, and I am not on any pain meds, so the incision really hurts (total, it is about 5-6 inches). I am going back to the Doctor to have him check it today and re-dress it, but I can walk again… without pain. No deep-throbbing toothache-type pain radiating across my lumbar region and down my legs. I can walk up the stairs again without using the handrails. They want me to start by walking as much as possible and not lifting over 10 pounds (there’s a joke there, but I’ll leave it alone!). I will listen to my Doctor – 100%. Next up: Set a consult at Cleveland Clinic for my A-Fib. Here’s my plug for them:
It’s about a six-hour drive for me, and it’s too bad the Dodgers aren’t there at the same time. However, they are there in August (22nd – 24th). Maybe I’ll have a check-up then. We are taking a trip to Alaska at the end of June and Early July. Business, of course! Myself, our Plant Manager and our wives are visiting our dealer there… and it’s all business – I swear! [Fingers crossed]. BTW, this is our Dealer Site. We are approaching 200 Dealers Nationwide!
Vargas defense is not stellar. It’s serviceable. His dwar is currently -0.2
dWAR is one of the stats that is subjective. Typically reputation is involved.
Hard to find a dWAR formula. I agree that when watching baseball closely you can tell a good fielder from a not so good one. Quantifying that has apparently proven to be difficult.
Here’s a good read on, written a while back.
https://library.fangraphs.com/the-beginners-guide-to-measuring-defense/
I’m looking closely at how Vargas moves. Admittedly I have not seen him in person, but what I have seen tells me he might be better in a smaller zone. Clearly he has great hand eye, and you don’t hit 95 mph fastballs without significant fast twitch. He’s not slow on the bases. The young man can move.
I coached infield at relatively high levels. In college, as a player and student prepping for a career in physical education, I’ve spent hours practicing and watching infield work, including on the back fields in Glendale. I think I know what I’m looking for and looking at. It’s my opinion that Vargas, and Busch for that matter have spent twice the time in batting cages than they have taking grounders. All they need now is a few hours a day with Dino Ebel and they will get better. Practice, practice, practice.
Mark claimed, without citing a source, the Dodger brass considered Vargas’s defense “stellar.”
Funny, but Dave Roberts seems to have a different opinion. Just the other day, he was asked directly about Vargas’s D by the LAT’s Mike DiGiovanna. Here’s how that article began:
“The hesitation in his response when Dodgers manager Dave Roberts was recently asked to assess the overall defensive play of rookie second baseman Miguel Vargas spoke volumes.
‘I think it’s been … OK,” Roberts said, pausing to find the right description. “Part of having him take on this position this year is we knew there would be some growing pains. But there’s also an expectation he will get better. There are some plays I think we’d like to have back, but the bet is on the person, the player and the athlete.”
“Vargas, 23, made only 27 starts at second base in five minor league seasons and was not considered an elite defender at his primary position, third base. So it seemed risky for the Dodgers to entrust the spot to him, especially with a new ban on infield shifts requiring second basemen to cover far more ground than they had in the past decade.”
And so on….
Vargas has been “OK,” okay? That is not “stellar.” I’ve certainly seen a few plays that, as Roberts put it, “we’d like to have back.” The upshot, however, is that the Dodgers braintrust remain high on Vargas–even if his offense and defense have not been all that great since he came up in late 2022.
Early this season, Vargas had a freakishly high walk rate an OPB over .700–unsustainable, but it still had me hoping Vargas had successfully modified his approach that would make him a high OBP guy who combined high contact rates with a keen eye.
Oh well. Over the past 30 days–a stat easily found on MLB.com– Vargas’s OBP is a lackluster .286. (By contrast, Outman’s is at .359 over that period, and his OPS is at .946, while Vargas’s is .590.)
Now, despite these numbers–and despite the fact that Outman is the better defender–Mark boldly told Eric that Outman is more likely to be sent to OKC than Vargas.
Because, according to Mark’s faulty math, Outman strikes out, and I quote, “44% of the time!”
Um, nope.
Not true at all.
If you want to compute K rates, keep the ABs out of the calculation. The correct formula includes Plate Appearances. If you go with ABs, you ignore every walk, every hit-by-pitch, every sacrifice.
Today, Outman demonstrated the adage that a walk is as good as a hit. He walked, Vargas doubled–and they eventually were driven in by Mookie. And runs, of course, are what win games. How you get to first base isn’t nearly as important as how you get home.
Before today’s game, Outman had 39 Ks in 114 PAs, for a K rate of 34.2%, according to Baseball Reference. He had 13 walks, one HBP and one sacrifice. Yes, Outman strikes out more than we’d like–about one-third of the time he steps to the plate–but it’s not as bad as Mark would have us believe. Most clubs would happily take a 34% K rate from a guy with a .969 OPS.
Sad to say, but Mark’s dumbass math is yet another example of his stubborn insistence that Outman is overrated and obviously lucky. Mark insists that Outman’s high BABIP–or batting average on balls in play–is proof of this.
While it’s true that Outman’s BABIP will return to more earthly levels, Mark’s suggestion that a high BABIP is “luck” is simply not true.
He raised this issue before re Outman and it made me curious to dig deeper. What I found was that advanced stats showed that Outman had a much higher barrel rate than Vargas, and also a higher exit velocity.
BABIP is not just a matter of luck. Trout’s lofty BABIP–.347, according to Mark, while the average is about .300–ain’t just luck. He hits the ball damn hard and he runs damn fast. Guys who do that consistently will have a higher BABIP than guys who make a lot of weak contact and have average speed.
Well his -4 defensive runs saved is third worst among second basemen with at least 150 innings on the field and his -11.5 UZR/150 is second worst. He’s not going to hurt you defensively but I doubt he will thrive either.
Bravo!
Now look at cryogenic ablation, a cure that worked great for me.
I’m on it.
I had RFA on C 4-7. It was medieval but worked.
Glad that you are feeling better Mark. I totally agree about Outman. He has to learn to recognize and lay off that low and out of the zone breaking ball. Watch and learn from Muncy. I’m happy that Mookie and Freddie read LADT! Mookie MVP in May!
Mark, how long was the surgery?
3 hours
More of that please.
My wife at Cleveland clinic today for Bronchoscopy. Growth in Lung. They tried that 6 years ago. Almost killed her by nicking lung and then 10 days in Hospital with infection. Then 30 days at home with daily nurse for antibiotic infusions. Only to have it be back now. Hoping for better outcome. I pick her up shortly. In end I believe they will remove one lung lobe in month or so.
David, difficult to bear when someone so dear to you is suffering. Praying right now for you and your wife and a better than expected outcome and diagnosis.
Godspeed!
Glad to hear your pain free.
I’ve seen some stats suggesting that Vargas isn’t the greatest defender. Regardless of what they say, he is still learning the position. He should only get better. His only knock might be range.
I agree with this. The kid has only played it consistently for a few months really and he has all the tools to be an adequate defender. Up to this point however the numbers don’t agree that’s the case.
“I would not move Vargas”
I would. In fact I already would have done it. What he is doing at second he could do at third and that position would be solid for years. I think he could be another Arenado. They are about the same size. Arenado became a star at 24. Vargas will be 24 next season.
Mookie at short for the time being is ok. If Rojas can remain healthy I have him at short and Mookie at second if necessary. Frankly, with the current roster my infield would have been Vargas, Rojas, Muncy, Freeman.
Gonsolin almost ready. He still looks rusty. Too many pitches, WHIP and ERA a little high yesterday, but it can go unnoticed when the team scores 13. Bullpen looking much better. I still believe they are overworked.
SD and LA both 7-3.
I agree moving Vargas to 3rd makes a lot of sense….but not this year the way the team is constructed. Next year move Muncy to DH and Vargas to 3rd. Seems to solve a lot of problems and IMO his profile plays better at 3rd than 2nd
Good take kp. He’s at second the rest of this year. Unless he isn’t.
Cmon Urias, get back on track today!
I’m guessing Vargas takes more strides to get up to full speed but has decent speed once at full speed. He is fast but not quick.
His doubleplay pivot at second is not great. Meanwhile, the ball can get to a third baseman really fast.
I’ll let the Dodgers figure out his best position among the mix of player choices.
Mark, so happy to hear you are pain-free. It’s amazing what they can do these days. Keep up the good work and rehab.
* For my $ Taijuan Walker has always been horseshit.
The Phillies ran some unusual defensive schemes with Walker in the 4th before his departure.
After singles by Busch and Betts,. Brandon Marsh chucked a throw headed where elephants go to die, somewhere up the 3rd base line between 3rd and home. There can’t be anyone there? But wait, Taijuan was right there, mysteriously, to catch the throw. Conventional thinking would have Walker backing up 3rd.
But the unique cut plays weren’t over. Freddie singled to right, Castellanos came up throwing home but overthrew the cut off man. (stellar outfield play) Never fear, Walker was there in the middle of the infield to battle the first baseman for the overthrow. Walker won out, then promptly threw the ball into centerfield trying to get Freeman going to 2nd. The pitcher typically would be backing up home on that play.
I need to go back and redesign all my basic cut off playbooks to allow for the pitcher to roam around somewhere in the infield and never back up a base. They seem to run these exclusively for Taijuan Walker.
I’m sure Badger who appreciated good fundament baseball, as I did, and got a real kick out of that show.
Taijuan’s always been a dog. He was a 1st round pick by Seattle who’s never reached the potential they saw. Seattle finally couldn’t take it anymore. 11 years, 5 teams and a 500 record, continues to frustrate. A waste of talent. Nickel brain.
* I spend zero time looking at defensive metrics, like measuring range. I use my eyes. Vargas is fine at 2nd for now. In fact, I think he’s done remarkably well adapting to 2nd, as a true 1st or 3rd baseman. He doesn’t flash multiple turns at 2nd but his basic cross-over turn is pretty good. He cuts down the throw distance from Muncy with that cross-over pivot better than Lux ever did. Let’s not put more on this kid’s plate right now.
I sure did Phil. I posted something on it, with a link above dWAR, at least I thought I did. It either got caught or I forgot to hit post. I do that a lot with messages. Find them sitting there since yesterday.
Phillies looked awful. I’m sure they aren’t that bad, but for now I’ll sure take it.
It was in Spam – I paid bail. It’s a good read.
Congrats on what appears to be a successful surgery Mark! Sending prayers for a smooth recovery.
For the third week in a row, three Dodgers minor leaguers won player or pitcher of the week awards at various levels. For the week ending April 30, the honorees were Triple-A Oklahoma City right-hander William Cuevas, High-A Great Lakes pitcher Yon Castro, and Low-A Rancho Cucamonga outfielder Chris Newell.
The Dodgers signed the veteran Cuevas to a minor league deal on April 6, and the 32-year-old has a 5.19 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 17⅓ innings in the high-flying Pacific Coast League. But last week, Cuevas allowed only one hit in five scoreless innings against Sacramento on Thursday, including this fielding gem.
Castro was plucked by the Dodgers from the Yankees in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft in December. The right-hander has a 2.81 ERA through four starts, with 18 strikeouts in 16 innings.
He pitched five scoreless innings with four strikeouts on Saturday against Fort Wayne to win Midwest League honors. Castro turns 24 on May 23.
Newell had seven hits in 17 at-bats with two home runs, a double, seven runs scored, five RBI, and six walks, hitting .412/.565/.824 in six games for the Quakes to win California League honors.
Drafted by the Dodgers in the 13th round out of Virginia last year, Newell leads Rancho Cucamonga this season in both home runs (six) and stolen bases (five).
I saw that report. I could be wrong, but I was under the impression that these were internal honors decided by the Dodgers organization.
If not, I’d be curious about how players get picked.
First, glad to hear you have no pain Mark. Never had any back problems, but I can sympathize. Vargas is a rookie with less than 50 games experience in the majors. His thumb was broken in spring training. He has made some plays and missed some plays. That is to be expected, and you would think y’all would learn that judging a player this early into the season is an iffy proposition. Vargas will be fine. When he is fully healed, I expect a lot harder contact. And quit talking about next year, this one is just getting started! Sheesh. Everyone looked better last night than they have all year. Nice plays in the field and some solid at bats. Gonzo will be fine. All he needs is some innings under his belt. Now get Urias back on track and we might have something. We get SD for the first time this weekend. On a sad note, the music world lost a great one today. Gordon Lightfoot passed away at 83. One of the best folk singers ever and a real story teller. RIP.
Peter, Paul & Mary doing ‘Early Morning Rain’ was my first recognition to Gordon Lightfoot. They did that great tune justice. If there really is an afterlife and souls are free then we’d be able to hang out with Lightfoot, Prine & Goodman but Gordon would still get all the ladies. Silver tongued devil.
Good to hear you’re walking without pain and the surgery was a sucess Mark. I too believe Outman will come back down to earth. Ending up at the end of the season with a 1.000 OPS or more and a .300 BA or more doesn’t happen often unless your name is Judge or Trout or something like that.
What do you think about the idea of moving Smith to DH to save his career as the primary DH and making Martinez primarily a pinch hitter due to his age and back problems? As you said apparently the Dodgers don’t want to move Smith but what do you think? I don’t think moving him to LF during the season as you suggested is a good idea.
What about Busch in LF everyday with or without a little time in AAA at the position to get familiar with the position and Feduccia taking Smith’s place at C as the primary C, if you like the idea of Smith as DH?
Too many rookies I guess?
.900 OPS or more is even high for a rookie too.
I don’t know why Feduccia is not up, unless Smith is adamant about being a C.
Somebody needs to knock some sense into him. Too early?
Good one.
And point made. Having him in the lineup is a good idea. Having him catch is not.
Mark first off I’m glad to hear you’re pain free and feeling better.
The time for that decision was during the offseason. Kasten talked a big game about a youth movement and the farm system they built. The only problem is the original youth movement was putting Vargas at second base. That was the only rookie they were going to go with.
Signing Heyward when they did should not have affected a youth movement. The Dodgers chickened out on going young. They signed Thor, Martinez and Peralta. Those moves put Outman, Busch, Pepiot and Grove headed to OKC.
Lux and Gonsolin getting hurt opened the door for Outman, Pepiot and Grove. Now Stone gets a shot due to injuries.
I would have been fine if they would have gone full youth movement
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Lux
Outman
Vargas
Busch
Thompson/ Heyward/ Taylor
Barnes/Rojas
Kershaw
Urias
May
Gondolin
Pepiot/Stone/Miller
Like I say I would have been fine going young but San Diego went all in and I think the Dodgers bailed on a youth movement and getting under the CBT trying to remain competitive with SD.
Smith is NOT moving full time to DH.
Please.
Agree that is an asinine idea.
Asinine is a little strong. Considering what he’s been through it might be a good idea. I say might. Maybe not full time but for a few weeks. Problem is, we already have a DH on this team. If JD doesn’t make it back, then, yeah, bring up Feduccia and keep Smith in the lineup.
I get the point as long as it is temporary. But full time? Does not seem to be the kind of thing Will would like to do. Twiddling one’s thumbs while waiting to bat seems a tad boring. A few veteran arms returning to the market as free agents.
Exactly Bear.
The player has massive impact in these decisions. Decisions which impact his earning potential.
That’s why I have suggested LF or 3B… but only if he wants to move. It won’t work otherwise!
His earning potential is higher if he stays on the field. One well placed foul tip and his season could be in jeopardy. Personally I think it’s too early to have him behind the plate. I would recommend he only catches Thor, at least for a while. Less risk of being struck by a high velocity foul tip.
I get the value thing. Catchers get more dWAR points than do left fielders. I say put his mind at ease. Extend him. Offer him Taylor money.
Taylor money pays $1,000,000 per hit. Couldn’t afford Ohtani with Smith making that much money.
The Athletic has an article today concerning James Outman: https://theathletic.com/4477187/2023/05/02/scouting-report-outman-bradley-kelenic/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
It’s called, “A scout’s take: Can James Outman, Taj Bradley and Jarred Kelenic keep it up?”
Note: This is the first column from Andrea Arcadipane (a.k.a. scoutgirlreport on Twitter), a former member of the Yankees’ baseball operations department. She’ll be contributing a monthly scouting piece for The Athletic, but if you want more in between, you can visit her site (ScoutGirlReport.com) and/or join her Patreon. Enjoy!
Like me, she wonders if he can keep it up. However, this is her conclusion:
The takeaway: Even though Outman will experience some regression, his underlying components back up his surface stats. Outman will likely remain a consistent performer.
“Maybe they start throwing him fastballs high and breaking pitches low to change his eye level, or throwing him hard stuff inside and slower stuff to the outer third to mess up his timing.”
Yeah, where have I heard that before?
The league knows where to go. Expect it. I believe it was Tony Gwynn who said he would foul off the ones he knew he couldn’t drive. What James must learn – if it’s strike 3, or even close to strike 3, get some wood on it.
10:10 PM ET
Phillies (15-15) 4.5GB
Dodgers (17-13) 1st place
SP Matt Strahm L
2-2 2.31 ERA 23.1IP 32K
SP Julio Urias L
3-3 4.41 ERA 32.1IP 35K
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
DH Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
LF Chris Taylor R
CF James Outman L
2B M. Vargas R
SS Miguel Rojas R
C A. Barnes R
Partly-cloudy-day
23% Precipitation
59° Wind 10 mph Out
Weak lineup tonight
Especially at the bottom.
Tuesday schedule
8:05 a.m. PT: Great Lakes (Casparius) Quad Cities [Royals] (TBD)
11 a.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Peter Heubeck) at Lake Elsinore [Padres] (Henry Baez)
4:05 p.m.: Tulsa (Hurt)vs. San Antonio [Padres] (TBD)
5:35 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Robbie Erlin) at El Paso [Padres] (TBD)
Hey, looks like Vargas’s thumb must be healed! And Taylor came through too!
Another big day of offense for the Dodgers.
And Julio!
Back on track with ten Ks over 7 innings, allowing only one run, one hit, one walk.
The NL champs don’t seem to give us trouble. MLB is making the World Series a joke. Get rid of wildcards.
That is more like the Mookie we have come to love. Nice night for Vargas and CT3. Outman again with 2 K’s. But he gets a hit off of Roger Clemens kid.
Which pitcher on the active roster gets optioned or IL’d when Stone is activated on the 26 man roster today?
Jackson