This is the strangest offseason I can remember in recent years for the boys in blue. They (Kind of) have multiple needs, but also have a lot of high-end talent in the upper minor leagues. They have payroll flexibility ranging from some, to quite a lot, depending on what happens to Trevor Bauer. They’ll have at least one unanticipated change to the coaching staff with the departure of Brant Brown. In addition, they have the ability to reset the Luxury Tax if they choose to do so.
Even stranger is the free agent market in which the Dodgers seem to be in on everyone. They’ve been linked to Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Mitch Haniger. They’ve also shown interest in Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, and reliever Alex Reyes. And let’s not forget that they’ve already reportedly made an offer or two to Aaron Judge.
The Dodgers are even active in trade rumors, apparently showing interest in Willy Adames.
Even stranger, they aren’t showing much interest in any of their own players, jettisoning Cody Bellinger and not picking up Justin Turner’s options. Trea Turner seems to be an afterthought at this point and Clayton Kershaw will supposedly sign any time now, or wait until later so Andrew can hoard players just to cut them later?
Honesty, I can’t really get a grasp on what the Dodgers are going to do, or what options will best fill their needs.
40 Man Roster Today
19 Pitchers (20 with Clayton) – Blake Treinen and Walker Buehler are questionable for next season. But, they can fill out a rotation and bullpen with the rest of pitchers currently on roster.
When Kershaw eventually signs, they can have a full rotation alongside Gonsolin, Urias and May. There’s more than enough depth with Grove and Pepiot in a 5th starter role, but this is the Dodgers. There will no doubt be an addition or two in some form. Whether that would be a project, a suspended player with a positive and just outcome to appeal, or a big, bank-breaking name. It seems like the Dodgers will certainly add another arm to this mix.
The bullpen starts with Phillips, who should be used in the closer role, and Hudson, who should be the main high leverage guy. Almonte, Graterol, Miller, Ferguson, Vesia, and Jake Reed fill out the rest of the pen with Gonzales, Bickford, Bruhil and Jackson just missing the top 8 spots. Again, there’s room for an add or two and plenty of guys with options remaining adding to flexibility.
I’ve seen much worse pitching staffs and we’ve barely begun the offseason which is a much better place to be in than most other teams in the league.
There’s plenty of options for position players, but there’s also a lot of question marks since many on the 40 man havn’t played above AA.
3 Catchers – One of them is Diego Cartaya who spent most of the season at high A+. As usual, he started strong, and as usual, he fell off towards the end of the season. It’s a Good thing Smith and Barnes can be penciled in for the entire season with little need for a 3rd catcher.
8 Infielders – Including 3 major leaguers in Max Muncy, who shouldn’t play infield, Gavin Lux and Freddie Freeman. Beyond that, top prospects Michael Busch and Miguel Vargas can fill the holes vacated by the two Turners if they’re really interested in a youth movement.
Eddys Leonard and Jorbit Vivas both spent the entire year at A+ and will be entering their second season on the 40 man and don’t seem to be realistic options at the MLB level this year. Slick fielding and light hitting SS Jacob Amaya is new to the 40 man roster and hasn’t show he can hit consistently so far in 4 minor league seasons. These three are good enough to hold onto, but not good enough to count on for the upcoming season.
6 Outfielders round out the roster. Mookie Betts is the only proven starter after they cut Bellinger who hasn’t hit like a starter in two years, but somehow 11 teams are interested in him. After Mookie, strikeout machines, Trayce Thompson and Chris Taylor are journeymen that are not everyday players, but could be forced into an everyday role allowing them to compete for a strikeout crown. Rounding out the outfielders currently on the roster is…
- Outman, who spent most of his time at AA, striking out 152 times in just 473 ABs combined at AA and AAA.
- Andy Pages who spent the entire season at AA while striking out 140 times in just 487 ABs.
- Jonny DeLuca, yes, he also K’s a lot and spent most his time at A+ last season.
- After signing Kershaw, we’ll have 37 players on the 40 man roster.
- 2 Players will need to be added to the 40 Man roster once the season begins when Treinen and Buehler are transferred to the 60-day IL.
- A total of 5 players have never played above AA and three of them haven’t played above A+ – Vivas, Leonard, Cartaya, Pages and DeLuca.
- All of the pitchers have MLB experience.
- 4 players – Outman, Vargas, Amaya and Busch had at least 200 AB’s in AAA.
The Dodgers certainly have options. Most teams would call this pitching staff complete. But, the Dodgers are meeting with Verlander and have been in contact with Rodon and Bauer still hangs in the balance. I don’t expect Bauer’s situation to be settled before the start of the Winter Meetings, but I would assume that Rodon and Verlander are valid options whether or not Bauer is expected to be done in a Dodger’s uniform. After all, you can never have enough pitching.
I’ve seen worse bullpens from the Dodgers in the past, they’ll most likely add rehab project or two to round things out. They definitely don’t have the depth that they had last season.
The Dodgers could certainly field a team with the position players they have on the roster. The top 13 on the 26 man would most likely be the following if I had to set the roster today.
Catchers – Smith R and Barnes R
Infielders – Freeman L, Busch L, Lux L, Vargas R, Muncy L
Outfielders – Betts R, Thompson R, Outman L, Taylor R
We would then have to choose 2 from a group of, Pages, DeLuca, Vivas, Leonard, Amaya to round out the bench. That’s 1 AAA player, 2 AA players, and 2 A+ players.
Today’s Opening Day Roster
If the season started today. The Opening Day roster could look like this.
Rotation
Julio Urias
Tony Gonsolin
Clayton Kershaw
Dustin May
Ryan Pepiot
Bullpen
Evan Phillips
Daniel Hudson
Yency Almonte
Brusdar Graterol
Shelby Miller
Caleb Ferguson
Alex Vesia
Jake Reed
Starting Lineup
Mookie Betts RF R
Gavin Lux SS L
Freddie Freeman 1B L
Will Smith C R
Max Muncy DH L
Miguel Vargas 3B R
Michael Busch 2B L
Chris Taylor LF R
James Outman CF L
Bench
Austin Barnes C R
Trayce Thompson OF R
Jake Amaya IF R
Pages OF R
While this isn’t a bad lineup, it certainly isn’t as good as last year’s squad. But, it’s probably a lot closer than most would think if everyone reaches their potential. Let’s look at the pieces that we lost and see if their replacements would account for the lost production.
Gone are…
- Trea Turner 298/343/466/809
- Justin Turner 278/350/438/788
- Cody Bellinger 210/265/389/654
While I don’t put much faith into projection systems, there’s little else to use for this exercise, so here goes. Based on Steamer, the Dodgers would be looking to replace those three players with these three rookies.
- Miguel Vargas 264/337/448/785
- Michael Busch 234/310/420/730
- James Outman 238/313/446/759
Did you see that “Scary” Giant’s lineup with Aaron Judge? I would absolutely take this lineup over that one.
Defensively, we lose a little. Busch and Lux up the middle is not as good as Lux and Trea Turner. But, JT and Max Muncy were not great third basemen last season and Vargas has improved his defense and is much more athletic than either of them. Outman is a good defensive Center Fielder, but I don’t see him having the range that Belli had. Overall, we will take a step down defensively and maybe a small step down offensively with what we have today.
Winter Meetings
Tomorrow will be the first day of the Winter Meetings, which will be held in San Diego again this offseason. This is typically the busiest week of the offseason, at least before the COVID offseason and the Lockout offseason. The Dodgers currently have 36 (37) players on the 40 man roster. 38 if you count Trevor Bauer. Key Payroll numbers are as follows:
Projected Payroll: 182,192,650 – This includes Bauer’s salary
CBT Threshold: 233,000,000
Cap Room: 50,807,350
Clayton’s Contract: $19,000,000
Cap Room after Clayton: 31,807,350
Looking forward
The Dodgers are in a great position going into the Winter Meetings. Right now, it looks like they could use a left-handed hitting bench piece, a right-handed bat that would lengthen the lineup, and a starting pitcher that can eat innings. With close to $32 million to spend, they have money to fill these needs and stay under the cap. But, they have the financial ability to go over the cap as well pushing the reset into the future.
Of course, the Bauer situation will have some effect on the decision-making process. I think the Dodgers are in the position where they are going to act as if Bauer will be suspended and if not, they go over the tax threshold by a lot again for next season. The result would move May or Gonso into the pen for a long relief role.
If they can add an impact bat, the offense will be better than last year’s offense if they can get a player that’s better offensively than Trea Turner. I think Bogaerts and Correa fit that description and also fit better in the current lineup providing another middle-of-the-order right-handed bat with power. The pitching staff is largely unchanged from last year’s staff if they can bring in a guy that can get replace or improve upon Tyler Anderson’s season. They can get an Ace like Verlander, a former stud they can improve like Syndergaard, or a project to tweak and improve like Taijuan Walker.
They can certainly go after Bogaerts or Correa and still sign Verlander with less of a spend than last year. Kiermaier might make sense as Outman insurance or a left handed bench piece. He’s expected to get a contract of about 6.5 million, which doesn’t break the bank. I don’t expect the Dodgers to fill their needs with a trade until their free-agent options are exhausted.
The best fit to add a big bat would be at SS or in the Outfield. But, they could consider filling the hole at 2B or 3B and move Vargas or Busch to left field. With this kind of positional flexibility, the Dodgers could go in any number of directions including moving Lux to CF. Trading for a guy like Ian Happ or signing Mitch Haniger for left field while also signing Bogaerts or Correa which would provide a lot of insurance since Happ can play 3B or LF and could significantly improve an already very good offense. Let’s see what the Magic Man can do when the Winter Meeting begin tomorrow. We can still be pigs and give a big nod to Mafred for screwing us with the Bauer situation.
Over the past few days, I have heard enough about Correa’s back to worry a lot about signing him. Bogaerts is a 2-year solution at SS. Dansby Swanson strikes out a lot (these days, who doesn’t?) and may be the best option. The Phillies will allegedly do whatever they need to do to sign Trea Turner.
The Dodgers are not going to get Judge, de Grom, Rodon, or Verlander. Write that down.
Gavin Stone is going to be the 5th Starter.
Lux and Busch as still the most likely to be traded.
Bryan Reynolds has requested to be traded.
I just saw that.
He will be traded, and the Dodgers have the pieces. He might still be able to play CF, but he is a solid LF’er. I would try and play him in CF.
Yes, he did, but that does not mean the Pirates have to comply. At least not right now. I think if they do trade him, it will be at the deadline. Nice analysis BP, but I think it is way too premature to make sense of any moves or non-moves AF might make. Personally, I think the Padres are more of a threat to the Dodgers than the Giants are, even if they do sign Judge. Padre’s pitching is better, and they have a solid bullpen. There is also a report that the Padres have talked to Trea Turner twice already. If they were to sign Turner, supposedly Tatis would move to the outfield and Kim to the bench. Now, do they really want three 300-million-dollar contracts on the roster, plus they have to think about re-signing Soto in a couple of years. Tatis is just beginning his 12-year extension. Nonetheless, it is going to get very interesting the next month or so.
Darvish, Musgrove and Snell are better than CK, Urias, Gonso and May? Good one.
They also have no first baseman, no left fielder only 3 starting pitchers and $30M below the cap and no minor league system after the Soto trade.
Careful B&P. Bear is going to remind you that it’s not a cap!
It is not a cap, and I said pitching, which means overall. It is a luxury tax ceiling. Right now, their starting lineup is nothing to sneeze at. They are more aggressive at this point than the Dodgers are showing. You forgot Darvish. They have only 34 guys on their roster right now. And Morejon and Weathers are both capable of being starting pitchers. Never my friend underestimate the opposition, we did that in the playoffs and had our asses handed to us. Whoops, you did mention Darvish, but also remember, if they do manage to sign Turner or one of the other free agent SS, Tatis is going to move to the OF, and they move Kim to 2nd and Cronenworth moves to 1st.
The Pirates don’t have to comply, but it certainly puts some pressure on them. They would get more for Reynolds now than in a midseason fire sale, right? They had to weighing what they could get for him already.
Straight up, I’d offer Busch (unproven on the ML level, but ready) and some lesser prospects. Ramos also possible, as he is not protected from Rule 5 draft. If I was AF, I’d also be looking to potentially expand the deal if the Pirates have some other promising prospects.
Cartaya is a hard no, but Rushing ? Not sure. Dodgers do need an outfielder and Reynolds is a good one, not great. The OF would be Betts, Reynolds, Outman and Trayce. Will be risking whether Outman/Trayce really measure up? Give Outman that “runway” and we’ll find out.
Sorry Duke, if you want to get Reynolds, Busch and some lesser prospects won’t even get close. There will be about 8-10 teams lined up at Pittsburgh’s door and most all of them will offer something better.
The Trade Simulator (which I’m the first to admit does some really whacky stuff sometimes) says a fair trade would be Busch, Pepiot and Pages. I don’t believe you would consider Pepiot and Pages “lesser prospects” would you?
Anyway, I’m not trying to talk you into wanting Reynolds, but he’s going to cost more than you think.
Yeah, Reynolds is under contract for a few more years, so it would cost more.
So, if the Dodgers want him, what is the offer?
Busch is a starting point because he has no obvious position. Outman could be the OF back in the deal–or Pages or Ramos or DeLuca–but I’ve read that Pirates are deep at OF, so maybe they’d prefer Leonard or Vivas. Rushing is a real possibility because catchers are at premium. Pepiot and Groves are prime trade candidates. .(Nastrini, Bruns and other pitchers would be considered–but I wouldn’t deal Miller or Stone.) Rushing is a real possibility because catchers are at a premium and brass sees him below Smith and Cartaya.
The Pirates may say they won’t trade him–but they would be foolish not to entertain offers.
Good food for thought B&P.
I expect Andrew to add at least two starting pitchers before opening day, although I have no idea of quality. The way we go through starters, he doesn’t have nearly enough right now, even with the youngsters.
I think you’ve got way too many young guys on the opening day roster. IMO, no way Pages is there, and Amaya and Busch won’t be there at the same time.
I’m also not a fan of Lux at ss, so I need to come up with someone to play there. I’d settle for Swanson, since he’s the least expensive.
So here’s a potential lineup:
Mookie – RF
Lux – 2B
Reynolds – LF
Freddie – 1B
Smith – C
Muncy – DH
Swanson – SS
Vargas – 3B
Outman – CF
Reynolds potential trade: Trade Simulator says Reynolds for Pepiot, Busch and Pages works. Any takers?
No thank you on both Reynolds and especially Swanson!
Good summary of the current position B&P!
Many directions the Dodgers can go.
It still seems like a missed opportunity to let Tyler Anderson go for $13 million AAV. If you were willing to commit $19.6 million AAV in QO, they should have matched Angels offer.
The market for pitching appears strong with Eflin getting 3 yr $40 million( ERA 4.04 this year) and Montero getting 3yrs $35 million.
I could see Dodgers bringing back Heaney and JT, and signing Bogaerts and Kiermaeir. You could probably reset the CBT payroll and fill your glaring needs while keeping all your prospects. Or trade Busch, Miller and Outman for Brian Reynolds instead of Keirmaeir.
But Friedman likely has many other options in mind. And Roberts even suggested that they may get Buehler back in Sept next year.
Should get interesting at the Winter Meetings.
Tyler Anderson probably regrets moving so swiftly on the Angels offer. Judging what other SPs with poorer 2022 records are getting, it seems like the Angels really got a sweet deal.
I wish Anderson had taken the Dodgers qualifying offer, but it seems Minassian really understood he wanted the security of a longer deal.
Why didn’t AF offer him one? He could live to regret it. Anderson in 2022 was the Dodgers’ most durable pitcher. The staff seems talented by fragile.
I assume there were offers from other teams, but perhaps Anderson had personal reasons for wanting to stay in SoCal. (I bet the Padres wish they had offered more than the Angels.)
Eddy Alvarez to the Brewers!
Typical Brewer move.
It might be a good one…
I think the main takeaways are:
They have money to spend.
They have prospect capital.
They have roster flexibility.
As far as underestimating the Padres…
They lost every series during the season against us.
They won the last one when it counted the most.
That doesn’t make them a better team.
They have less money to spend and more holes to fill with no farm system to help out.
Morejon and Weathers aren’t any better than Pepiot and Grove. Our rotation is still better. And they have no one close to Miller and Stone.
The only thing this year will show is how bad of a manager Deuche Roberts is. He has been gifted the most talented roster and has consistently fumbled This year’s team is the weakest in a while thanks to Fraudulent Fraudman!
And how many games did your team win RS? The Dodgers did fumble away 51 games last season! All Robert’s fault of course!
For the longest time I’ve been saying the Dodgers needed just one thing to succeed: a new director of IBP.
Finally, the brass has listened!
From Dodger Blue:
“In addition to their coaching change, the Dodgers recently made a promotion from their research and development team, naming Emilee Fragapane as their new director of integrative baseball performance, according to J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group.”
My work here is done.
So, the Winter Meetings start today and the question for me is will it turn out to be a flurry of activity (trades and FA signings) or just a whimper? Does AF make a big FA signing or do some bargain aisle shopping? Does he make a blockbuster trade with his “optionality” pieces or make small trades to fill the margins?
It would be helpful for the Dodgers future to know if Bauer’s last remaining year on the books will need to be paid or will his suspension be upheld by the arbitrators? If his suspension is lifted I think he’ll be pitching for the Dodgers in 2023, but if it is upheld we’ll see JV signed to a two-year deal with a 3rd year team option. Unfortunately it doesn’t seem as if the arbitrators are ready to announce a decision any time soon.
Who plays SS, who plays LF or 3B? We might get some idea as to the direction AF is going by the middle of the week or we might just have to wait until the start of ST when both Mookie was traded and FF was signed.
Buckle up it just might be a wild ride.