Postseason Clarity

Posted By on October 4, 2022

The remainder of the regular season is going to be mostly tune-ups for the postseason teams now that a clearer picture has to be decided after the season’s final weekend.  The most important series saw the Braves grudge match against the Mets’ two-headed monster, which didn’t go well for the most feared rotation twosome in the league.  The Braves put the pedal to the metal and usurped the top spot in the National League East with a sweep of the daunting Mets with wins against both Scherzer and deGrom, relegating them to a wildcard series against what looks like the Padres.  Anything can happen over the last three games of the season, but the Padres have to play the Giants while the Phillies will play the strongest AL team that cheated their way to a title in 2017.  So, the most likely outcome will be the Padres getting a road series against the Mets and the Phillies hanging on or being ousted by the Brewers.  The Brewers hold a tiebreaker against the Phillies, so they just need to make up a two-game deficit. 

All of this means the Dodgers and Braves have clinched byes, the Mets are the top wildcard, and the Phillies and San Diego will try their best to play the Cardinals instead of the Mets unless something goes terribly wrong. The NL Wildcard Series will be the Phillies at the Cardinals and the Padres at the Braves.  The winner of the Mets series will play the Dodgers in the 5-game Division series, and the winner of the Cardinals series will play the Braves.

Over in the American League, just about everything is set in stone.  All of the playoff teams are decided.  The only thing undecided is who’s going to play against the Indians in Cleveland.  Right now, the Rays are one game behind Seattle and are lined up to play the Indians.  Since the Indians and the Jays are tied at 90 wins apiece, it’s less of an advantage to play one or the other and more of a matter of preference.  Congratulations to the Mariners for making the postseason for the first time in 21 years.

If nothing changes in the standings, the Astros and Yankees get byes.  The team formerly known as the Indians will host the Rays, while the Mariners and Blue Jays will battle it out in Toronto.  The cheaters will play the winner of the Blue Jays series, and the Yankees will get the winner of the Cleveland series.  What a joy for the few Cleveland fans they have left after changing their name and drawing a measly 17,000 fans per game after averaging 22,000 in the last pre-pandemic season.

What Happens Next?

We’re in a new era of postseason baseball.  Someone thought it would be a good idea to ice to the best teams in baseball while providing ample rest for wildcard teams to maximize their chances of success.  If you’re a team with a bye, the good news is that you’ll get to line up your pitching and get everyone as healthy as possible with five days off from the last game of the season to the first game of the postseason.

If you’re a Wild Card team, you’ll have to use your best two pitchers in the Wild Card Series and bring your best pitcher back on four days’ rest to start game 2 of the five-game Division Series, which is considered normal rest for a five-man rotation.  The AL has an off day scheduled between Game 1 and Game 2, then another between Game 2 and Game 3.  The NL has an off day scheduled between Game 2 and Game 3 only.  Who made this schedule?

As a result of these scheduling anomalies, the AL teams have the opportunity to bring back their Game 1 starter for game five on five days’ rest.  The NL teams would have to bring their game1 starter back on four games’ rest in order to use them in game 5.

For the second year in a row, the schedule does not favor the Dodgers unless the Padres manage to upset the Mets.  It seems like the Dodgers are destined to play the Mets and the Braves. At the same time, the Braves are destined to play the Cardinals and the Dodgers.  The good news is, if the Mets win out against our redheaded stepchild to the south, they won’t be able to pitch DeGrom and Scherzer twice each in a five-game series.  But, they will be able to pitch them three times total, with the Game 2 starter going on three days’ rest.

It sure looks like the Dodgers are destined to lead with Julio, Kershaw, Anderson, and some kind of a bullpen or piggyback game in Game 4 against the Mets.  Then come back with Julio on four days’ rest for game five if necessary.  If that happens, Kershaw would be slated for game 1 of the Championship Series, which also features one less day off than what we’re used to seeing. 

The possibilities are many for the Championship Series, and a picture is worth a thousand words or so.  So let’s just post a visual of the three most likely scenarios…

If the clichés are true, the Dodgers should breeze through the postseason this year as “Pitching wins Championships” is probably the most common of all baseball clichés.  Nobody has more quality pitching than the Dodgers, and with the condensed schedule and a bye, no team is set up to take advantage of their pitching like the Dodgers.

Footnote:

I lost a dear friend to COVID last year, just after Thanksgiving. I got him back a couple of weeks ago. Without going through too much detail, he died and was brought back, died again, and was brought back. Coma, surgeries, and transplants. But, he is one of the most strong-willed MoFo’s you will ever meet. He doesn’t live close to me. He lives really close to Dodger Stadium, and that’s usually around 35 miles and 1.5 to 2 hours each way. I’m doing my best to go up and see him on Saturdays with my wife to help him out with a few groceries and a few odd tasks and to give him some company, and will continue doing so as much as I can.

On top of that, I started a 6-month cybersecurity Bootcamp about a month ago that will take me through February 2023 in order to stay relevant in my profession by updating my skills for another run at staying employed until I feel like I can retire like many others here on this site. Unfortunately, for the next five months, I’m putting in an extra 3.5 hours a night, three nights a week, plus another 10 hours outside of class. Add in my newfound nursing duties, and you can probably tell why I’m not posting quite as much lately.

I’m planning on doing my best to cover for Mark while he’s in paradise because I love this site and the community that we have here, even if it doesn’t always seem that way. Bear with me while I multitask. Cheers!

At least I get the Dodgers games on TV in front of me while I’m in (Zoom) class. 😉

Arizona Fall League – By MT

Jorbit Vivas was the only Dodger position player who played for the Glendale Desert Dogs, and he was as advertised: 1-3 with a BB and 1 Run Scored. Two Dodger pitchers were on the mound. Emmet Sheehan started and pitched three hitless innings. Three more pitchers followed and going into the 9th inning, and the Desert Dogs were shutting out the Javelinas 3-0. Enter Ben Harris, whom a lot of fans are high on, and in an instant, Harris (who got one out) gave up 5 Earned Runs to blow the save and lose the game! His ERA sits at 135.00 – I do not think I have ever seen a number that high!

This article has 59 Comments

  1. Love how you layed out the pitching, looks good.

    I really feel SD beats the Mets. Mets are taking on water and blowing that division is going to sting. Maybe it energizes them, but that lineup is not great and SD pitching is their strong point.

    Certainly looking like Dodgers-ATL Part III NLCS, I know a lot can happen though between then.

    I hope Freddie is not too emotional in a return trip to ATL for the middle 3 games….I think he’ll be ready to roll but it it does concern me a bit.

    This is going to be fun….

  3. Bye – “The transfer of a competitor directly to the next round of a competition in the absence of an assigned opponent:”
    “he has a bye into the second round”

    Buy – “Obtain in exchange for payment”

    Sorry, I had to do it, I tend to be compulsive at times.

      2. He also said “bare with me”, so I am posting this naked. I am nothing if not a team player! 🙂

      1. Damn it!
        Cheers dude! I enjoy everything you do! Just couldn’t help myself on that one.

    3. BTW – Your last sentence should have been two. Sorry, I had to do it. I tend to be compulsive at times. Glass houses, stones and all.

      Thanks for the chuckle, Rata. I always find it funny when someone points outs grammar mistakes with mistakes of their own.

      1. Buy by bye bi olgically speaking, people who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw parties.

  4. All good B&P and thanks for the effort. Don’t sweat the pettiness….they sound like Verdugo.

      1. Takes more than that to offend me. I have no problems taking responsibility for my own mistakes. Poking fun is acceptable.

      2. Nope! Sarcasm – and the intended humor that is the natural byproduct of it – is not allowed under any circumstance.

        This place has about as much mirth as a heart attack, and if the overall character and personality here could be summarized, it would be “Get off my lawn!!”

    2. I didn’t read that as petty at all. Rata even literally apologized with a self-deprecating reference in his last sentence specifically to avoid it coming across as petty.

      It was a minor misspelling, and not a big deal, but how does one gently issue a correction without being Alex Verdugo? Geez Louise!

  6. Some of it is Grammerky which does not always understand s and corrects. Miost of the time it is wright.

  7. It would be nice to have a fun game to watch in these last two. The offense is flat, but the pitching, especially the bullpen is very good. I like our chances if our pitching holds true.

    Glad to see Lux with a hit and Trayce with another bomb. It sure looks like decisions about the lineup are getting a whole lot easier. Vargas just might make the team as a utility guy with CT3’s neck ache and corresponding cortisone shot.

    Let me help out whoever makes the lineup. Don’t platoon! Just roll the same guys out there every night. I guess you can let Barnes catch after Smith goes three games in a row. But, that’s about it.

    Mookie RF R
    Turner SS R
    Freeman 1B L
    Smith C R
    Muncy 1B L
    Turner 3B R
    Muncy DH L
    Thompson LF R
    Belli CF L
    Lux 2B L

    Seriously, just leave it alone. This the the lineup that’s going to give you the best chance to win. Don’t screw it up.

      2. Starters
        Mookie RF R
        Turner SS R
        Freeman 1B L
        Smith C R
        Muncy 1B L
        Turner 3B R
        Muncy DH L
        Thompson LF R
        Belli CF L
        Lux 2B L

        Bench
        Barnes C – R
        Gallo OF – L
        CT3 – If healthy infield outfield R
        Alberto Inf / P – R (Lefty Killer)

        Part of me would rather see the rook in there. But, he just didn’t do enough to take it from a vet. I’m hoping Hanser learns how to destroy lefties again once the season ends.

        Part of me would rather see Rios in there. But, they have an abundance of 1B / 3B guys. But, he’s also the most experienced coming off the bench. But, he probably isn’t fully healed either and after dealing with Belli and a similar injury, they are rightfully kicking that can down the road. Hell, they already extended Muncy and Vargas is the heir apparent. If they opt into JT’s contract, maybe they should trade Rios in the offseason. But, then again, he still has an option and three arb years beginning next year.

        With the DH, the bench really doesn’t matter all that much. I don’t even want to use the bench on this team. I just hope the guys can play 15 freaking games without getting injured.

    3. Lackadaisical play can be catchy and allows excuses for those who feel pressured and pressure should be a tool to achieve better and no excuses. Rally around the flag boys and don’t take a loss to your grave and it would be no less.

  10. Great job BP. I will do all I can to cover Mark. I have one ready and am working on a couple others, so BEAR with me a little too. I am heading back to Colorado on the 27th, stopping in Phoenix to see my grandson who I just got back there after some rough times for him in Tennessee. Then up to see a friend in Lake Havasu City, then back to Canon and home. Ordered me a Freeman jersey, retiring my Seager. Be safe all, win for Vin! Loretta Lynn passed away today at 90. Another icon of country music gone. RIP to the Coal Miners Daughter.

  11. B&P, I promise not to nit-pick you grammar and word usage if you don’t critique mine. Thanks for the pitching rotation charts. Very good.
    * Lux’s defense is an adventure lately. He knows one turn and now lollypops throws to Freeman, just in time. Throw the ball like you mean it.
    * Trea Turner will benefit from some days off. His bat looks tired. He is so antsy in the box right now. Is he trying too hard to hit .300?
    * Will Smith will be a key in the playoffs batting in the 4 hole and behind Freeman especially. My scouting report would include pitching around Freeman whenever possible. Muncy quieted the critics with better results for awhile but he’s still hitting 199. He will need to hit.
    * In the past, I thought Graterol was a future closer. But I’ve changed my mind. He has high velocity but doesn’t miss bats. To me Phillips, Martin and Vesia are better candidates in our match up closing role.
    * I appreciate Dodger fans commitment and dedication to the team. But many think that unless this team wins the WS, this season is a total failure. It’s all or nothing.
    * Some fans are booking psychiatric appointments for November, in preparation for the failure.
    As a fan, I understand the anticipation and trepidation. But I’m not breaking out the Valium. I would be disappointed but this has been a very special and fun ride. What’s been accomplished has to be appreciated for what its been, win-lose or draw.
    * While everybody is different, most players don’t spend much time preparing to fail. The game is all about dealing with failure.
    Most players developed a fatalistic attitude to survive in this business. If they didn’t, they wouldn’t have gotten this far. They trust their routines and preparation. They work hard and give 100% and control what they can control. And they accept their fate. If you do your job and your teammates do their jobs, you accept the outcome. If you catch a hot team or get some bad breaks you’d better accept it and overcome it. If not, you go home.
    Any conversation that teams that lose out didn’t want it badly enough is bullshit.
    Doris Day had it right. It’s Que Sara, Sara.

  12. Great analysis BP.

    I really hate these 3 games series. Game 2 being an elimination game just ain’t right. I’m glad the Dodgers don’t have to deal with that. I know it’s all about revenue and keeping more teams in the hunt. But a lot of championship teams in the past may not have made it out of the first round had they been forced to play in a 3 game series. I don’t like it.

    And I agree, Dodgers shouldn’t platoon in the playoffs. They will, but they shouldn’t. This team doesn’t need to. And I’d like to see players like Gallo and CT3 reserved for defense late in the game. And Alberto ready to close when we’re up by more than 8. He’s due for another strikeout.

    1. That is why Verdugo’s crying about the Dodgers 2020 title being empty just galled me no end. They had to win 4 series in a row to win the title and they were down 3-1 in the NLCS. They had to win a single game just to get into the playoffs last year and barely won that. Beating the Giants in the NLDS was as about a satisfying end as there ever was. To knock the team with the best record in the majors out of the playoffs was huge. I knew they were in trouble in the NLCS against Atlanta because they were so banged up and spent from just trying to catch the Giants. I will be fine with what ever the outcome is this year. They have played their asses off for their fans, drawn the biggest crowds all year both at home and on the road. Their record against the better teams is very good. So GO DODGERS< WIN FOR VIN!!!!!!!

  13. Lakers news – …..{{{cricketts}}}}}…..

    And we have questions on Dodger roster? Check the box score from Monday. Ouch.

    Mega- long season ahead for Lakers.

    And yes, it’s Lebron’s fault.

    1. Makes it easy for me to continue to never watch another one of their games until that idiot is gone.

    2. One of my fantasies a couple of years ago was to be the best basketball player in the game during that phase where players were “encouraged” (read – required) to wear those pre-approved social justice slogans just so I could wear a jersey that said, “Free Hong Kong,” or “China is Asshoe” and see that reptilian Adam Silver’s head explode.

      That Daryl Morey fiasco (and LeBron’s response) was the final nail in the coffin of any attachment I had to the NBA, which I loved when I was younger.

      1. I watched the Dubs & Celtics playoff runs. Worn out by Lebron, I actually enjoyed new stars, great players (Steph & Klay) and the complete lack of Laker-talk centered around LBJ. Felt ok.

        Clips open their new joint (next season?) and they should be ready to roll the Lakers on the court at least. The town still belongs to Lakers but, the Lebron circus is leaving a bad taste.

  14. Last year in the postseason, Trea Turner hit .216 with .500 OPS in 51 ABs. For his career in the postseason, Trea has a .561 career OPS in 167 ABs. Will Trea Turner have a breakout postseason this year?

      1. This is key. We are going to need him to be big in the postseason.

        Everyone hope for a 3 game series for the Mets Vs SD. Would be a really big advantage if that series goes 3 games.

    2. No. Hes overrated plain and simple. If there was another week in the season he’d OPS under .800 and his defense is below average. Don’t pay this guy silly money you’ll regret it.

  15. While I would like to see Aaron Judge get his 62nd home run this year, his struggle to do so underscores how difficult it is and was for Maris to do. Further, IMO it validates just how bogus the PED fueled seasons of Bonds, McGuire and Sosa were. I think there is a lesson therein for for those claiming they are legitimate HR records…..

    1. For the first few weeks of the season, there were a lot of complaints about how HRs were down, supposedly because MLB required that balls be stored in humidors.
      I wonder if the MLB just quietly let that rule slide…
      Judge has been phenomenal. With better health, Trout might have hit 55 or so.
      Fun factoid…. or at least I read that it’s a fact:
      Mookie is the first Dodger to hit 35 HRs and 40 doubles since Babe Herman in 1930, the so-called “year of the hitter.” (A few weeks back he matched Duke Snider’s 35-35 from 1954.)
      Yeah, Mookie is pretty good.

  16. 10:10 PM ET

    Rockies (67-93)
    Dodgers (110-50)

    SP Ryan Feltner R
    3-9 6.01 ERA 91.1IP 33BB 80K
    SP Julio Urias L
    17-7 2.12 ERA 170IP 40BB 162K

    Confirmed Lineup
    RF Mookie Betts R
    SS Trea Turner R
    1B F. Freeman L
    3B Max Muncy L
    DH J. Turner R
    LF T. Thompson R
    2B Gavin Lux L
    CF C. Bellinger L
    C A. Barnes R

    Clear-night
    1% Rain
    74° Wind 4 mph Out

    1. I think tonight’s lineup is going to be our playoff lineup. Just move Smith into the 4 spot, move everyone down one and move Barnes to the bench.

      If Trayce can hit anywhere close to the way he has for the past few days, Gallo won’t be getting much playing time. Thompson is outhitting Gallo against both righties and lefties so what possible reason is there to start Gallo?

  18. Kenley with a perfect ninth to clinch the East. 41 saves. Big Guy having his moment.

    We know the feeling. As in : KJ ain’t quite what he seems on paper.

    Can’t wait to see him in the ninth agst Mook, TT and Freddie. Time Lords.

    1. Just read that on Jeff’s site. He got an email from Harold’s daughter. RIP Harold, you will be missed. …Team has been flat these last 3 games, Freeman, Betts and Trea have done bupkis. Cody has been pretty good his last 10 games hitting over .300

  21. Andrew “home run allowing machine” Heaney strikes again. I really don’t want to see him used in the playoffs. Unfortunately after you count the good pitchers the Dodgers have, there is still 4 spots left on the playoff roster for Doc to play with.

    1. 1 My comment wasn’t about this game it was about the playoffs.

      2 Doesn’t matter that the game meant nothing, I’m talking about Andrew “home run allowing machine” Heaney’s performance this year.

      3 I said Andrew “home run allowing machine” Heaney will be on the playoff roster. That is what I meant when I said after you count the good pitchers there is still 4 spots on the playoff roster for Doc to play with.

      4 Urias doesn’t give up homers at the rate Andrew “home run allowing machine” Heaney does.

  22. Obviously they’re just playing out the string, but I suspect we’d all feel a bit better if they showed some serious offense and prevented HRs. Closing out the regular season tomorrow with a solid win would be nice– and provided just a bit of positive vibes and momentum.
    Then they’ll be able to rest and watch the Mets-Padres series…

  23. BTW, Freddie has slipped into second position for the batting title, trailing the Mets’ Jeff McNeil .326 to .322. Goldschmidt is down to .317.
    While Gallo launched another HR today, it’s Trayce who has joined Mookie as the Dodgers’ biggest power threats. Trayce had 13 HRs in 205 ABs, or about a 39-40 HR pace over 162 games.
    And now for some bad news….
    Vargas might be star someday, but after 47 ABs he has an OPS of .439. That’s way worse than Alberto (.614) or Gallo (.682). Yeah, he’s a righthanded hitter–but he simply hasn’t hit much at all.
    Worse: He has only one (1) walk against 13 Ks. Repeat: Just 1 walk in 47 ABs.
    Was this his pattern in OKC? Is he simply trying to hard?
    So… do folks here still think Vargas belongs on the playoff roster?

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