There are two types of people. Those that make assumptions without any logic or proof and those that need proof before believing anything. Before I jump right into this, I am going to give you a quote from Dodgers’ GM, Brandon Gomes about Andrew Friedman:
He’s an incredible leader. His ability to take in a ton of different opinions and bake them in, his ability to say ‘I don’t know’ is something that I’ve learned a lot about. You don’t need to have all of the answers, but you have a bunch of really talented people around you to take in different information and ultimately figure out where that path takes you. Those are a couple of things. His humility and his ability to go in and talk to anybody at any time, I think that’s special.
As fans, we always want to have the answers, but as in life, everything is not black and white. There may not be a lot of difference between the best of us and the worst of us. If you think I am about to take this down the Trevor Bauer Path, I am not, but it applies there as well. Never assume, unless you want to be an ass. I have no clue and no prediction of what will happen with Bauer in light of the third accusation. I will watch as it plays out, but you will not be able to call me an…
… and I am not rooting for Bauer – I am rooting for justice. I happen to think that is the only thing that is important. That’s it on Bauer. What other assumptions might we make?
- Some people assume that Cody Bellinger needs to go to OKC. OK, but does he take Justin Turner with him… who happens to be doing even more poorly?
- Some fans assume Max Muncy has a problem. Does he?
- Others assume that Clayton Kershaw will make his annual trip(s) to the IL. Will he.. or maybe he has learned not to push his body so hard?
- Many fans assume that the Closer’s Role is settled. Is it?
- It is widely assumed that Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Landon Knack, Clayton Beeter, and a plethora of other pitching prospects are a year or two away? Are they?
- Most fans assume that Gavin Lux is destined to be the Dodgers SS. Is he?
We can make all kinds of assumptions… and we all have opinions that are largely formed by our own life experiences and biases. Many times we jump to conclusions like it is an Olympic Sport. Other times, we come to a conclusion and refuse to change our opinion… even though the facts may no longer support that position. It takes a wise person to change their opinion or to have an open mind to accept facts that can change that opinion. Don’t be this guy:
I am looking forward to this series with the Giants. This should set the tone for the season. It’s “GO TIME!”
News & Notes
- Caleb Ferguson pitched 2/3 of an inning at OKC… he’s coming along slowly. It looks like maybe a couple of weeks more for him.
- Miguel Vargas is heating up again after cooling off from a hot start. He was 2-3 with 2 BB and triple yesterday.
- Michael Grove went 3.2 innings giving up a run and striking out 5. His ERA is 2.92. He has closer stuff.
- Mike Busch went 2-4 at Tulsa.
- Eddys Leonard was 2-4 again as he is red hot.
- Cole Percevil went 3 shutout innings for the win. He has his ERA down to 2.30, but I do not see him as a real prospect.
- How long do the Dodgers stay with Jake Vogel (.174)? Probably as long as they did with Kendall…
I am making my annual Los Angeles Trip from Tuesday, May 31st until Saturday, June 4th. It is business (all day), but I plan to see some Dodger Games as well as at least one Rancho Cucamonga game. My wife, son, our CRO, and myself have an Air B & B in Pasadena. I am looking forward to it! We have vendor visits at Valencia, Sun Valley, Chino Hills, and two in Temecula. I figured that Pasadena was a good central location.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/05/willie-calhoun-wants-to-be-traded-from-rangers-following-triple-a-demotion.html
I have heard rumors for years that he is a head case. Maybe it is true…
Could also be that baseball is super hard.
The underlying TheAthletic article is super interesting because it kinda implies that Calhoun wants to keep his swing as the Dodgers developed it, but the Rangers Hitting Coach is from the Dodgers. Why should there be friction? Unless Calhoun’s swing predates Friedman?!??!?
Watford, man you’re coming this week!!
Unfortunately, I’ll be in Wash DC/Baltimore this week, and won’t return until next Tuesday. What day are you leaving??
Great stuff Mark. I totally agree. You often want to see everything in black and white. Baseball is not and never is that way. For years teams have been secretive about many things including injuries and trade scenarios. I was not a huge AF fan when he first came over . I questioned many of his moves. But I am a fan, what do I know? I have been pretty busy with my brother since he came home, but am finding time for some me time. Enjoy your Cali trip. B&P let me know where you plan to meet up with Watford this Saturday.
Will do. And remember, if you need a break, you have an open invitation over here. During the week or on the weekend, it’s all good.
I’m assuming that Saturday with Watford is a done deal, he just needs to decide on the place. DodgerPatch, don’t plan any bike rides for Saturday. I don’t want you riding your bike on PCH after beers. Maybe crabby old Badger will leave his house and join us. Too bad Bobby has a conflict.
Anyone else in the area?
Thank you, I really appreciate it. I am playing music again on Friday at the VFW in Riverside with some old friends.
Well, this should be an interesting week, especially on this site with two off days on the schedule as bookends to the the two game Giant’s series. Then, off to Chicago for a weekend series against the Cubbies. The schedule will be jam packed with 13 in a row without an off day beginning in Chicago, then off to Pittsburg, then back home for the Phillies and D-Backs.
I would imagine there will be little Trevor Bauer news in the meantime. No more administrative leaves and extensions. Just an arbitration hearing that will be kicked down the road as far as MLB possibly can.
We’re bunched up in the NL West with the Giants, Padres and Rockies all within a game and a half of each other. The best teams in each league are also hoping for freeway series with the Dodgers and Angels records are just below the Mets and Yankees.
Many believe that the Dodgers, who have the best pitching in baseball are in need of another starter. I get it. Anderson and Heaney don’t instill confidence and Kershaw has shown us repeatedly that he needs a vacation during the season each year. We don’t need pitching right now, and no one is going to trade anything good right now either, so Ying and Yang are in harmony.
Teams will hold onto their pitching and other players, for the most part, until the trade deadline where they will be able to extract the most from teams looking to improve. With more teams eligible for the playoffs, there will be more demand and less supply than we’ve seen in the past. AF prepared for this by signing as many projects as possible.
I sure was hoping to see shiny new toy, Carson Fulmer in yesterday’s game with a big lead, but it wasn’t in the Cards. Instead, Bickford came in and gave up a knock, a bomb to HOF’er Miggy and managed to also strike out the side. Bruihl was nice enough to come in and make it close enough for a rusty Kimbrel to come in a vulture a save, his 4th of the season. Wow, Kenley is back and dominating for the Braves. I’d still rather have Kimbrel. Sometimes a change of scenery is needed to re-energise a player.
Say what you want about Belli and Lux, but Muncy and JT are killing this team’s offense. Muncy is no doubt going to have to go through it recovering from injury. Maybe Rios and Hanser should be the 3B/DH platoon. CT3 sure isn’t AJ Pollock with the bat. I liked him better off the bench as well. He had a knack for a clutch pinch hit when needed. Unfortunately, that role has been all but decimated by the DH.
Freeman and Barnes are the only players on the team with an OPS over 800. But, somehow we’re still one of the most proficient teams at scoring runs.
After a strong Spring, Justin Upton is still jobless.
Busch, Vargas and Pepiot aren’t knocking at the door, they’re knocking it down. Pillar and Noda might look really good in LF.
Rosters need to be trimmed by two. Bruihl, Moronta, Phillips and McKinstry all have their hats in the ring for an Oklahoma vacation. Phillips doesn’t have any options, but does anyone really think he’s going to be on the roster all season?
Some people deal in facts, while others deal in feelings. It is what it is.
I am looking for them to get more out of this vaunted offense. I definitely think Taylor is better when he is super subbing than being out there every day. One plus is he is hitting the ball harder than anyone else on the team. Nice to see Cody break the slump and hit a hard double yesterday. Bull pen has been just a little shaky the last couple of games, but Kahnle looked great. Bellinger leads the team with 28 K’s. Taylor is right behind with 25, but in 11 less at bats. Bellinger striking out over 33% of the time, Taylor close to 40. More contact is definitely needed from those two. This team still strikes out too much.
Belli will have his streaks and slumps until that hitch is gone. But, he’s not going be like last year. Right now, he can hit the ball if he makes contact way out in front which will make him very susceptible to off-speed and fastballs up. CT3 is doing what he always does. He’s a good solid ballplayer. But, it sure would be nice to have a bigger bat in that position.
JT sure looks like that old adage. Better a year too early than a year too late.
Muncy is a DH when he can hit again.
Lux is a great second baseman with an arm that has a mind of its own at times.
Rios should be playing 3rd base for a while until Muncy and JT can prove they can contribute regularly by platooning at DH in the meantime.
Belli might just be the best defensive CF in the game. He makes everything look so easy and covers ground like Kelly Leak.
I love Hanser Alberto!
I think the ball will start flying out of Dodger stadium when the weather gets warmer. We might get a taste of that during this Giants series.
I agree. But like the old school guy I am, I really hate strikeouts unless it is the other team striking out.
I too would like to see Rios get more PT at 3rd. Let JT and Muncy platoon at DH for awhile.
Bull Pen it’s funny you referred to Bellinger’s hitch. I was thinking the same thing while watching him be repeatedly tardy. But there are 2 coaching points from my youth that you don’t hear anymore:
Keep your right elbow up
Don’t hitch
Every kid my age heard that repeatedly. The right elbow up may help the bat path to the ball but usually that elbow drops and gets tucked inside anyway. So why start there unless it’s just a pre-load habit like Carl Yaz or Joe Morgan. If it’s forced to be up and is not comfortable forget it. It isn’t necessary.
And most everybody “hitches” with their hands, again pre load to get to launch position. Mostly it’s a trigger to get into a launch position early. Bellinger’s hitches with his head and hands. I seriously can find no-one else who drops there head a foot to 18 inches after the pitch has been released to get into their launch position. And I look for it. Nobody does that. Obviously the swing path will drop the head into a low pitch but Cody does it on the high ball too, which creates his hole there. And with all that movement, timing is everything. He seemed to have it for a brief time but as you say, he will have “streaks and slumps until that hitch is gone”.
This is Belli’s swing when he’s right…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZkSP2DKUf4
When he’s wrong, he seems to start with a dip in his hands, and then brings them back up. He also seems to pull through with the lead shoulder and pulling his head off the ball as a result. When you pull off the ball, the head of the bat lags and you get lots of grounders and pops.
In this video he seems to push through with the back shoulder and his back elbow is linked with his hips. Perfecto!
Belli and Miggie are 2 completely different guys but to my point, watch Belli’s head in your video compared with the Farmer John sign behind him. And look where ihis head travels to and through contact. Drops 18 inches.
Watch Miggie’s head maintain the same level throughout. He doesn’t sit down to start his swing. If you have a remote where you can stop and watch frame by frame, you can see this easily. And watch Mookie or Freddie’s head from start to finish. Nobody drops like Belli. Even guys who stand taller at the plate like Trout and Freeman don’t dip to launch. And Belli doesn’t it after the pitch is released. I guess he wants to make it as difficult as possible.
Why not assume that knee flexed, spine angle tilted stance to begin with and than just load your hands?
It’s easy to see that all that movement makes his hands and bat drop too. And moves his eyes. He had a foul ball the other night I’ve never seen before by anyone. After squatting to launch. his barrel dropped so far behind him and down on a take that he actually fouled the inside pitch off below his elbows. It’s hard to explain but I’ve never seen a barrel drop to that area unless someone was dropping the bat to avoid getting hit. Dropping to launch gives the barrel no time in the zone.
But he apparently has done this his whole life and isn’t going to change. He’s has success obviously but I expect him to hit in streaks. The bad timing streaks may be more prolonged as he ages, loses flexibility and has back and joint issues.
Enjoy his hot streaks and defense.
Greetings BP,
FYI, we are now 21 games into the season. Remember when I said I will give Cody and Lux a free ride (nothing negative) for the first 25 games. My word is my bond. I have not said one “bad” thing to date. But, I have been busy taking notes and writing down my thoughts on paper. I Can’t wait to share such with you after game 25. I’m sure you can’t wait either. Lol
TM
I’m sure I can. 😉 I didn’t take notes.
Although with the Giants pitching two lefties, I’m not sure this is going to get any better for either player. I imagine Lux may not even play. Cody has to play for his defense. We shall see. I hope both go off and have big games both nights.
Mercifully, the Mets DFA’ed Robinson Cano. He hasn’t been good in years. This is what I fear Mookie will be in 5 years. Those contracts are Always a boat anchor.
Always? You’re assuming Mookie will fail.
We went over the numbers. Maybe you missed them. This year he’s on pace for 4.6 WAR. That’s worth about $39m. Who knows how much WAR will be worth next year the year after and for that matter in 10 years. I won’t I assume I know the future. Mookie is 29. If he can stay relatively productive until he’s 36, he can earn most of that money. It doesn’t have to be an anchor.
It’s never a good idea to assume.
Yes, he can earn that money if he can stay relatively productive until he’s 35. The problem is that he’s signed for his age 36, 37, 38 and 39 seasons as well. Maybe he earns all that money through his age 35 seasonon, but the salary will count towards the cap and penalties through age 39. Maybe you can go over the numbers and see how many players are productive, or still in baseball at ages 36-39. Post your conclusion when you’re done. You can probably start with future HOF’ers Miguel Cabrera, Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols for reference.
I say trade him before his 5/10 rights kick in.
Seriously?
You must know there are MANY players throughout history that played and played well beyond the age of 35. Did you bother to read up at all before you posted that nonsense? Come on BP. You’re better than that.
Here’s a start
Hitters
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/leaders_35_bat_career-after.shtml
Do I need to post pitchers too? Tell you what, why don’t you research those.
We’re already hypothesizing a salary dump with Mookie?
I mean, yeah, I laid out a worst case scenario a few weeks ago where Mookie’s hip gets worse and he winds up being a horrible signing and the Dodgers basically do to him what the Mets just did to Cano, but, to be fair, it’s still a little early.
That said, Mookie’s defense is again in subpar territory. That’s an indicator that there MIGHT be something physical going on.
I said they should trade him in the fifth year right when he signed as he didn’t receive any type of no trade clause, he’ll get those with 5/10 rights. I said he’ll become Carl Crawford before that contract is done.
If Mookie’s hip is an issue, he’s not showing it with 4-0 in stolen base attempts.
I’m wondering how you came up with sub par defensively? Rtot (5) loves him and DRS (0) says he’s neutral. Belli in CF is Rtot (2) DRS (1). Is Belli also sub par? Mike Trout Rtot (1) DRS (2) is he also sub par? AA-ron Judge is Rtot (3) DRS (-2) in RF.
LOL – Defensive stats.
@B&P, I am with you in your Max and JT assessment. I will go further. I will even sit Muncy this mini series so he has 4 days of trying to figure out; right now he is just trying to pull everything and I cringed everytime I see the starting lineup with him at the cleanup spot. I think ERios can be hitting more if given more frequent reps.
I don’t know if this means anything this early, but it kinda follows along with my concerns regarding starting pitching
https://www.mlb.com/stats/team/pitching/innings-pitched?split=sp
Might need to run that by Jeff.
Like I said, it’s early, and maybe innings will slowly build.
The top team on the list (Padres) averages 5.47 innings as a starter. We average 5.09 innings as a starter. Our ERA is over a full run better. Our relievers are 28th in innings pitched and our starters are 17th. Our Starters have the best ERA in the league, our relievers have the fourth best and the staff as a whole is tops.
I can understand your concern. Bueller and Urias faded last year, Kershaw injured, Heaney and Anderson have been average at best in their careers and Gonsolin is iffy at best, with injury concerns and a habit of throwing too many pitches and being done in the 5th. But, the stats don’t back it up in the early going. Remember that two of our best relievers have spent significant time on the IL in Kahnle and Treinen and we haven’t even seen V-Gone or Ferguson yet.
The easiest thing to say about any team is that they don’t have enough pitching. We have the most.
It’s just a gut feeling about our starting pitching, not the pen. As well as they have pitched, I don’t see the length in these guys. If I’m wrong I’m wrong.
Dodgers Designate Carson Fulmer For Assignment
By Anthony Franco | May 2, 2022 at 1:36pm CDT
The Dodgers have designated reliever Carson Fulmer for assignment, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times was among those to relay. Utilityman Zach McKinstry was also optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City to comply with the reduction in active roster sizes from 28 to 26.
Fulmer’s stay in the majors lasted just two days, as Los Angeles selected him when Mitch White hit the COVID-19 injured list on Saturday. He didn’t wind up making an appearance, and his time in the organization could now be coming to its end. While L.A. didn’t need to clear 40-man roster space, Fulmer was out of minor league option years. The only way to take him off the big league club was to remove him from the 40-man entirely.
I would take more chances on a long term contract with a guy built like Betts than on one with a build like Judge.
I’ve never been a supporter of Muncy and have included him in many proposed trades but it wasn’t like I was trying to get a bag of balls for him. I wanted a player in exchange as good as those here have valued Muncy.
Maybe it’s time to platoon Bellinger.
A couple of us wanted Chapman for third base this year. Most did not.
I’m not a big Max fan either. He’s a three true outcome guy and a poor glove. HR’s BB’s and K’s, little else. Kinda like Joc without the extreme splits.
Platoon Belli with who? Platoon against righties, or lefties? His OPS is the same against both in the early going.
Chapman’s numbers are the same as Belli’s. Like Belli he has a great glove, but a glove is way less important at 3B than CF. Who would you platoon Chapman with?
Regarding the Betts contract. Mookie has 115 million in differed money. The deferrals are without interest. If Betts is traded, the future deferrals are voided, and the annual salaries are converted to present-day money. The contract would, as a result, increase in value.
AAV is $30m, correct? At 39 $30 million will count against the cap, correct? If I don’t have that right then I may be wrong in my calculations.
$365 million at TODAY’s WAR value (8.5 according to fangraphs) is 43 WAR. I would expect that WAR value to fluctuate but I don’t think it will go down. If it stays the same it’s approximately 3.6 WAR per year. Clearly the Dodgers are counting on the bulk of that 43 WAR over the next 7 years. This is a win now organization. Aren’t we lucky.
Amazing that Greinke is still a very effective pitcher. What a craftsman! He might be an interesting pick up for the second half if the injury bug hits
Well said Mark.
I try NOT to over analyze in the moment. We watch good games and bad games and our mood and (all too often) our perspective shifts based on how many good games or bad games we’ve seen in the past week or so.
As far as Mookie; yes, that contract was a big risk. One that isn’t in AF’s nature. I had mixed feeling at the time. But I’ve said before and I will say again, baseball is a lot like poker. For all the strategy and analysis, the goal in poker is to put as many chips in play when the odds are most in your favor. That in no way a guarantees that you’ll take down the pot (and knock out your competition), but it puts you in the best position for that to happen.
I wasn’t overly thrilled with the Betts signing. I was very happy Betts was a Dodger. But I understood the risks. At that time, in that moment… if a team was going to commit $300m+ to a player, Mookie was the best bet for a player not named after a fresh water fish. I know AF was under pressure to lock in a super star (for business reasons), so he made the best bet he could.
You go all in when you calculate the odds are most in your favor. No guarantees are ever involved. That’s all you can do. Fortunately the Dodgers are one of a handful of teams with a deep deep bank. They can go all in, bust and still be in the next game.
Mookie wasn’t a bad bet. At that moment in time. It’s yet to be seen if we get rivered and bust. That question won’t be answered for a number of years. But we will be in the game going forward, either way. Having a deep pocket is certainly a luxury.