Why Did the Braves Let Freddie Walk?

Posted By on March 15, 2022

Yesterday, the Braves sent four of their top fourteen players to the Oakland A’s for Matt Olson? Don’t get me wrong, Matt Olsen is an extraordinary player, but Freddie is “extraordinaire!” The Braves are making a lot of money. They are way under the Salary Cap (yes, I know they say it is not a salary cap). Olson makes about $18 Million less a year than Freeman and is controlled through 2024. Freddie is arguably the best First-Basemen in baseball TODAY, but Olson is close, and while both are Gold Glovers, Olson is better.

Are the Braves banking on Olson getting even better? Do the Braves believe that Freeman is not going to age well? Is it just all about the money? Why would the Braves be willing to gut the farm of four really top prospects, when they could have kept Freeman AND the prospects, thus keeping the farm system stronger for the future? Before the trade, the Braves Farm System was ranked #22 by Baseball America. Now, they are close to the bottom. I think there were two (2) factors that caused the Braves to let Freeman walk and they go hand-in-hand.

#1 – I think Braves ownership did not want to spend the money. They could have signed Freeman and traded for Olson and been a powerhouse, and still be under the Salary Cap.

#2 – I believe that many people think that (the soon-to-be 33-year-old) will not age well and that past age 36, he might decline rapidly. I hope the Dodgers think that as well. A four-year deal would be ideal. Five-years? Not so much. Six-years? No way!

That said, Freddie played for Team Canada in 2017 and has dual citizenship in both the US and Canada… and the Blue Jays are also interested. Freddies parents are Canadian, even though he was born in Villa Park, California, and still lives in California. Whether he wants to play for the Blue Jays could boil down to his political preference. I am not against Freddie Freeman – it just does not seem like a Dodger move, but I would be overjoyed for two or three years if he becomes a Dodger. It is more likely today that Freddie Freeman will be a Dodger than it was yesterday, but strange things can happen (Yankees or Angels). I have heard that the Dodgers offer to Freeman was four years with opt-outs, but it’s not from a highly reliable source.

However, the Red Sox are also interested, in addition to the Yankees, the Rays, the Dodgers, and Blue Jays. Freddie is going to get paid. He would put up some eye-popping numbers in NY or Boston!

Julio Urias – Future Ace?

Julio Urias is noticeably slimmer (as pointed out by Bobby yesterday). I think he gave his fat to Clayton Kershaw who is as fat as me. People close to the game say that Julio is motivated to be as good as he can possibly be. I think this year he will challenge Striker Buehler as the Dodgers’ Ace. Showing up in great shape is an excellent start. In the past, Buehler did not have a great reputation as a player who works hard in the offseason. Here’s a video of Julio yesterday.

https://youtu.be/mb7LN-9vR4k

While we are at it, Victor Gonzalez also has slimmed down. We heard about it over the winter, but now we can see it for ourselves:

Minor Leage Profile: Diego Cartaya

Most people agree that Diego Cartaya is the Dodger’s top prospect. His advancement is the reason that the Dodgers were willing to trade former top prospect Keibert Ruiz. Ruiz will be a very good MLB Catcher, but Diego has the ability to be the best catcher in baseball – hands down! I am not anointing him that as yet, but his skills are off-the-charts crazy! He’s a year to two away, but the tools are obvious, including prodigious power, and every day he shows signs that his pitch recognition and strike zone judgment are improving considerably. His catching skills are sick and I dare you to find anyone who thinks he will not be an All-Star! Here’s one of his Bombs:

 Adley Rutschman is the only Catching Prospect ranked higher, but that is solely based upon the fact that he is 24 years old, while Cartaya is still just 20. Diego was born in Maracay, Venezula. Maracay is a city in north-central Venezuela, near the Caribbean coast, and is the capital and most important city of the state of Aragua. Most of it falls under the jurisdiction of Girardot Municipality. The population of Maracay and its surroundings in the 2011 census was 955,362. 95% of Venezuelans are living in extreme poverty.

Diego Cartaya is the only child of Jesus Cartaya and Mery Larez, whom he has not seen in almost two years, although he does video chatting with them before every game. When spring training shuttered because of the coronavirus pandemic, so too did the airports in Venezuela. Cartaya couldn’t fly home if he wanted to. What followed was a total immersion in American culture, catching, and the culture of an organization that lavished a $2.5 million bonus on him in 2018, when he was the top catching prospect on baseball’s international amateur market.

“It’s difficult,” Cartaya said of the time away from home. “I would like to see my family. But I know that at some point I’ll be able to, and just think that I’m doing all of this for them.” During the pandemic, Diego lived with the family of Travis Barbary, the manager of the Dodgers’ top minor league affiliate, including his 24-year-old son, Chase, a catcher in the Dodgers’ organization. Cartaya said he needed only a day to feel comfortable in his adopted home. “They’re really nice,” he said of the Barbarys. “They take care of me. I feel like they’re my family.”

Travis Barbary was the Dodgers’ catching coordinator before he began managing in Triple-A. That made him a natural mentor to his young charge. He also has experience housing teenage Venezuelan catching prospects; Keibert Ruiz spent his first offseason in the United States with the Barbary family five years ago. Now it was Cartaya’s turn.

The Dodgers don’t just require their Latin American catchers to learn English. they also require the Dodgers’ English-speaking receivers to learn Spanish. Cartaya, effectively bilingual at age 20, already has a leg up on many of his peers… and he says, “I like country music because it’s slow.”

Diego is cooking with the Barbarys.

Fearless Prediction: Diego Cartaya will be the Dodgers starting catcher by 2024 with Will Smith Moving to 3B. He should start the season at Great Lakes and move rapidly to Tulsa. The Loons have a 5 game series with Peoria (IL) in Mid-May (it’s a 2-1/2 hour drive for me) and I need to go to a couple of the games.

For Diego: Tennessee Whiskey

This article has 46 Comments

  2. Just read that the Red Sox are now involved in the Freddie Freeman sweepstakes .If Freddie goes elsewhere, the Dodgers should sign Soler.

  3. I’m thinking that Freddie and the Dodgers are close to being a done deal. That’s the reason the Braves shifted to Matt Olson.

    Mark is having a serious case of Deja Vu! It wasn’t long ago he was talking about K-Bear forcing Smith to 3B. I stopped buying the K-Bear hype when he couldn’t hit for a couple of years and still can’t throw out baserunners. I am buying the hype with Cartaya. This guy is off the charts! I know it’s just 114 ABs in low A ball, but this guy is crushing baseballs at an alarming rate. They aren’t just talking about soft hands like they were with K-Bear. They’re saying he already has an advanced feel to catching and has a strong arm. High praise for a 19 YO in A-Ball. I see him playing two levels this year, advancing to AA and possibly starting the season at AAA next year. He’s the most exciting Dodgers prospect since Corey Seager, who turned out to be pretty good to the tune of $325M.

    I don’t think Kershaw looks as fat as Mark. I thought he looked like he always does. More importantly, I just hope he can break 91 this year. The reports are good so far, after his first bullpen. Time will tell.

    Julio and Victor both look great. I’m wondering if they trained together and ate together in the offseason. V-Gone is going to have a big bounce back season this year.

      1. Not an insult, just a retort. You’re in great shape, but you’re also about 50 years older. Clayton should be so lucky to have your build at such an advanced age. 😉

  4. Thinking BP is correct.

    But this has dragged on longer than I thought it would.

    While I like Freddie Freeman, I wouldn’t do the deal if it prevented signing Trea Turner long term. He’s interested and said the Dodgers approached him about an extension prior to the lockout.

    Less years would obviously be better. Although keeping Freeman made some real sense in Atlanta, iconic player and all, the organization likes to hold onto their money, Liberty’s goal is always bottom line. A story surfacing yesterday.

    Mark, if I recall correctly, said something about being told the Dodgers offered a four year contract. Sounds about right. Maybe they go five to get the deal done or they offer more dollars, less years. Long term deals seldom work in favor of the club.

    Obviously, it would have been better for the Braves to simply re-sign Freeman and save the prospects.

    With or without Freeman, the Dodgers line-up should be potent. Thinking this has to conclude any moment.

    1. My vibe with TT is that he won’t be back. He’s extremely talented – more talented than Seager – but doesn’t seem like a team Ra-Ra guy. He seems like an indifferent mercenary, not mentally tough, and has disappeared in the playoffs throughout his career. My sense is that he’ll definitely want to get max $$$ in the FA market, and it won’t be from the Dodgers.

  5. Forget Freeman and all this suspense, let’s go for Bryant and voila, he’s better, younger, cheaper and more versatile, and possibly the future 3B. Also Greinke & Joc…

  6. Kyle Glaser, in the BA podcast, categorized Cartaya as “Holy Expletive Prospect” in the same category as George Springer or Ocuna. He goes into depth on Cartaya at about the 13 minute mark. It was a good discussion. Credit to Bluto yesterday for making me aware of it.

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2022-los-angeles-dodgers-top-10-prospects-podcast/

    Olson might not have the offensive ceiling as Freeman, but he’s five years younger and really just entering his peak. He was good before, but had a breakout year last year. There’s a good chance he builds on last year’s performance.

    Freeman is at the age where he may very well start to decline, maybe not dramatically at first, but he’s at the tail end of his peak, not the beginning of it. Another poster made the 32-year-old free agent comparison to Pujols, and although that’s a worst case scenario, that kind of stuck in my head. Freeman has nowhere to go but down.

    The prospects the Braves gave up were not really difference makers. Pache is going to be a defense only outfielder. That catching prospect sounds like a defense first/good power/no hit guy who will be decent, but not exceptional. The pitchers sound like relievers.

    Olson can slide in pretty easily and replace what they were getting from Freeman and give them more peak years pretty cheaply for the next couple of years. If they want to pay him in his FA year, then signing a 30-year-old to a longer term deal is a little more palatable than signing a 33 year old.

    1. Thanks for posting the link. They were really gushing about Cartaya and Vargas to some extent. They had a lot of good things to say about Miller, but that he’s lacking control right now. Those guys are pretty good at tempering expectations. Saying Cartaya will be at least 3 years away because catchers take a long time to develop. Saying Pepiot is more of a 5 inning pitcher, etc. Busch is coming along as a Max Muncy type second baseman.

      Anyways, lots of good stuff.

  7. Well, we just solved our pitching problem.
    Jimmy Nelson has been re-signed. No details, but since he probably won’t pitch this year, I assume it’s a 2 year deal.

    I think Mark’s info about our offering Freddie only 4 years is probably correct. If we had offered 6/180, he’d be at Cambelback right now. It’s probably something like 4/150 and that’s what’s causing other teams to start talking to him.

    I agree with sbuffalo, that given a choice between signing Freddie or extending Trea, I’ll go with Trea. He’s younger, plays a more important position and we already have a very good first baseman.

  9. Braves just tore up Olson’s contract and replaced it with an 8 year deal at $168MM.
    That is a brilliant maneuver by Anthopoulos . He gets a much younger guy at a much lower price.
    He was absolutely right to make this move.

    Freddie is probably going to sign for somewhere between $30-35MM per year while the Braves just locked in a 5 year younger, possibly just as good player, for $21MM per year.

  10. Freddie Freemans wife just put out a hint on the internet showing Dodger Stadium in the background. Sounds like it’s going to happen.

    3. Delay is trying to free up spots on the 40 man. I’m sure she loves life on the Peninsula. I love it down there. Just took a nice bike ride down to “The Wedge” last weekend. We spotted a sea lion and some Garibaldi at the mouth of the harbor. Lot’s of great dining choices too.

  11. I already like the featuring of a minor league prospect on this site. The info on Diego is great. He seems like a good solid kid and I’m eager to learn more about him. It’s a ways off but I am really interested in Smith working at 3rd for a potential move there some day to save his body and keep his bat. It will be fun to watch how this evolves.
    I got tickets to 5 Dodger games this spring and may try the “walk-up”, game day, senior discount deal for Sunday – Wednesday games. They claim that will be on again for select non-sold out games. It’s worth a try.
    I’m all in on the FF deal for 4-5 years.
    Nice to see Urias without the weight. He and V-Gon need to watch it as they appear to have an Endomorph Body and can eat their way off the mound. Speaking of Endomorphs, it’s dawned on me, I’ve heard nothing about Graterol. He’s on the 40 man but not mentioned much.

  12. Apparently Max Muncy is playing 1b today in the sim game. I hope that means good news re his elbow!

  13. The Braves price to win the WS in 22!has gone out to 18/1 following yesterday’s business.

    I actually think they are stronger than last year. Freddie gone, but Olson, Acuna and Ozuna are all available.
    They will be the team to beat in NL.

  15. The Rays might wind up with Freeman. Repeat visit to WS if they get him. Do it and then move to Portland, OR.

    I am down for Smith at third and Cartaya at catcher in 2024. Chapman at third for two years with Justin at DH for one year.

    2022 / 2023 / 2024
    RF Betts / Betts / Betts
    SS Trea / Lux / Lux
    CF Bellinger / Bellinger / Bellinger
    C Smith / Smith / Cartaya
    1B Muncy / Vargas / Vargas
    3B Chapman / Chapman / Smith
    2B Lux / Taylor / Taylor
    LF Pollock / Pages / Pages
    DH Justin / Busch / Busch

    1. Will be quite interesting to see the fan reaction if Tampa outbids the Dodgers for Freeman.

      1. I’m not sure if most fans have given up on Muncy though. He probably will not have the power he has had until July or later and other than getting walks, what else does he offer?

    2. I already kinda like the Rays, but moving them to my backyard would probably put my Dodgers fidelity in jeopardy. Not that I’d change allegiance, but they’d definitely steal time otherwise devoted to following the Dodgers. Still, that would be great and I’d actually get to watch the Dodgers in person every three years. Plus Wander.

      I like the projected lineups, although, I love to eventually see Soto added to it some how, some way, however, unlikely. I respect Trea Turner’s talent, but I just don’t think he’s a good fit with the club. Honestly, I’d rather save the money toward Urias, Buehler, Bellinger, and eventually Smith-all players I’d prioritize over Turner. I know the stats and WAR don’t support that stance, but 300+ million can be a strong counter argument. We’ve succeeded with combinations of Kiki and Taylor at SS before, and I’d have no reservations about platooning Taylor and Lux at SS going forward. If Friedman ultimately goes that way, I’d rather he trade Turner now and get some good value – possibly a LH starter and prospect. I don’t think Turner makes or breaks our WS chances.

      I really have no inside information, but I have a feeling about Amaya and Leonard might make an impact as well. I think Amaya’s becoming adaptable offensively and he’s already strong with the glove. Defense was a weak spot for us last year and that alone might get him some innings. Of course, they could also cut him, but I’m hoping he makes an impact. We really didn’t get anything from our farm last year and it hurt our bench and, frankly, our team energy. Get meaningful production from the farm this year is critical imo.

  16. But the issue is at catcher Smith’s bat is a huge plus. Not so much at third. If Cartaya is the real deal then I would trade Smith. He’d bring a big return.

    1. Cartaya won’t be a big leaguer for another couple of years. By that time JT will be retired and the Dodgers will be shopping for another 3rd baseman who can hit. Why not just promote in-house?

      Will Smith is a stud and won’t be a FA until 2026.

  17. If Smith did not have to catch every day, he would be a better offensive player…. a lot better!

    Physically, he is better suited for 3B. He is not a big guy.

  18. Happy reports from the Ranch this morning. A condo neighbor is a big Dodger fan and she patrols the grounds watching and meeting players. She was glowing today. After initial work the players retired for lunch and she stuck around the grounds. After lunch the big club guys came back out and had an inter squad game. With the crowd thinned my friend had a chance to talk to a number of players. She asked Doc why not more small ball and he took about 10 minutes going over player-by-player of who’s suited for it and who’s not. Very nice. She told Mookie that her friend just lost her husband and he signed a ball personally to her with some kind words. Lamb, Graterol, T. Turner and more shared nice time with her. She’s on cloud 9.
    Terrific to hear the players are sharing their time when possible with their loyal fans.
    Perfect 85 today as well.

    1. My son and I are typically at the ST Travel ball tournament in AZ this week. His team canceled it this year as the main selling point (for the boys and parents) is that we catch MLB ST games during the off time. Last year we caught three MLB games in between and after his tournament games. I’ve heard from multiple people that (a couple days in) they are having a blast. A lot of people canceled plans because of the lockout. So those there are enjoying the small crowds this week. I’m jealous. I even heard Kersh is signed autos for 15-20 minutes after warmups the last couple days. Really wish I was out there with my son.

  19. Not much linking Dodgers to any starting pitching. Makes me think Bauer is in play.

  20. Relievers Caleb Ferguson and Tommy Kahnle are unlikely to be ready for opening day, Roberts said, as they try to come back from Tommy John surgery.

    1. Ferguson isn’t any huge surprise but they thought Kahnle might be back last September. That was 6 months ago. The fact that he still isn’t ready should be of some concern.

      1. Ferguson is 18-19 months post TJ Surgery also. Some have talked about May being back in August which is 15 months post surgery which seems rather aggressive. Perhaps because the extended rehab for Ferguson is because this is his second TJ

  22. Per New York law any player who is not vaccinated can not participate in home games. This effects both the Mets and Yankees.

  23. I can not imagine that form of totalitarianism would pass the Supreme Court. But it probably will.

  24. Blue Jays, A’s Finalizing Matt Chapman Trade
    By Steve Adams | March 16, 2022 at 7:03am CDT

    The Blue Jays and Athletics are finalizing a trade that would send third baseman Matt Chapman from Oakland to Toronto, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Former All-Star second baseman Carlos Baerga, who previously broke the news on the Jays signing both Yimi Garcia and (last offseason) Marcus Semien, first reported on Instagram that a trade agreement is in place.

    Maybe they are out of the Freddie Freeman sweepstakes with this trade.

  25. Details on Kershaw’s new contract give a little bit of insight into what they’re looking for out of him. Those details came by way of MLB Insider Robert Murray. The Dodgers inked him to a one-year deal this past week, and the initial report was that it was for $17 million with incentives that could boost it.

    Those incentives are mostly based on the number of games that Kershaw can pitch in this year. If he reaches 16 starts, he will earn an additional $1 million salary. It goes up another million when he reaches 20, 22, 24, and 26 games. If he were to reach 26 games, his salary for the year would be $21 million.

  26. Yankees resign Rizzo, so they’re out on Freeman. For PhilJones, Brusdar Graterol pitched in the sim game yesterday…

    “Carson Fulmer, Brusdar Graterol, Robbie Erlin and Alex Vesia were among the pitchers who threw in the game.”

    “Chris Taylor, Austin Barnes and non-roster invitee Stefen Romero all hit homers. Taylor and Barnes took Erlin deep. Romero got the best of Vesia. Notably, Max Muncy played defense at first base, but he wasn’t part of the lineup.”

    Jays are finalizing a deal for Matt Chapman.

  27. Has there been any sightings or news on Edwin Rios and the status of his recovery from shoulder surgery?

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