Light at the End of the Tunnel

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1. Just get it done and lets have some baseball.

2. Found this in a Joe Posnanski post online and I think it really sums up the situation:

   “Dammit, do we ask for a lot as baseball fans? I don’t think so. All we ask is that the people who run the game act as if they like it. They don’t have to love it like we do. Just like it. ”

   He’s right. They act as though it’s just a business to them…………………….and maybe that’s all it is.

3. Get it done today. The world, or at least America, needs our past time. With the hyperbolic political environment , the long Covid ordeal , the threat of WW III, the unbelieveable increased costs for nearly everything in life, it is time for the owners and players to get it done.

4. Salary insanity spreads to football as the Packers sign Rogers for 4 years, 200 million. Brad Peacock signed by the Royals. MLB signs a deal with Apple to stream Friday Night Baseball. Seahawks trade Russell Wilson to the Bronco’s.

   1. The Bronco’s will be very good this year.

5. I’m listening to the Jayson Stark/Rosenthal podcast, I have to say there’s very little optimism from those two reporters.

6. From The LA Times:

   In each of the last five seasons — and never before, based on available data from the Baseball Reference and Five Thirty Eight websites — it is more likely that a strike will be fouled off than put into play.

   “The hitters have learned to exploit that rule to extend at-bats, which is one of the things making the game longer,” James said, “and you need to make adjustments.”

   James proposes that a batter can foul off one pitch with two strikes. Foul off another pitch, and you’re out.

   Heresy? Maybe. But, as James noted, baseball had been played for decades under the premise that a runner should knock over the catcher if he is guarding home plate, and that a team should change pitchers whenever it wanted. No more, since the rules changed.

   “Everybody accepts that now,” James said. “Nobody fights it.”

   Interesting. I think I like that!

   Read more here: https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2022-03-07/bill-james-mlb-improving-baseball-lockout-rob-manfred

   1. Meh….not too keen on this. What are the unintended consequences?

      – strikeouts now go through the roof and completely skew that stat
      – run scoring falls off a cliff and it becomes like baseball circa 1968, which caused the league to lower the mound
      – you eliminate the drama of watching a pitcher/batter duel in a key spot during a playoff game

      The premise is flawed, too. I don’t think there are more foul balls necessarily because batters have learned how to foul off pitches better. I think it’s because pitching has changed. Pitchers used to pitch to contact and let the defense get outs. Now they pitch to strike out batters and avoid the zone at all costs. It’s nibble, nibble, nibble and keep it out the zone and live at the edges (where batters are likely to foul off pitches).

      Seems like a radical change just to try to speed up the game. Yeah, sure, the game will be faster, I guess, which is intended to make it more interesting to fans, but do fans also want to see batters walk back to the dugout after fouling off strike 2? I mean, why not just reduce the ball and strike count to 3 and 2 if the goal is the make the game faster?

7. Some major progress being made on tonight’s negotiations.
   MLB has given the union a written offer which includes a CBT which goes from $230-242 over the next 5 years, minimum salary from $700-770 and they’ve agreed to a 12 team playoff rather than 14 which they previously stipulated.

   There are, of course, other points which the players will want to counter, but I think this offer is close enough that unless Boras submarines the deal again, they should be able to finish this within the next 24 hours.

   But then, nobody is asking me. For all I know the players will walk away from this deal. In my opinion, that would be a big mistake, except for some relatively minor tweeking.

8. If it doesn’t get done today (Wednesday) I think we’re in for a very long protracted work stoppage. Too much momentum has been gained in the last day (if the reporting is accurate) that if the two sides cannot come to an agreement today I think they “pick up their marbles” and go home for a long- a very long time.

   I’m such a hardcore fan I’m excited with the prospect of the start of FA, but more eager to see the the FA acquisition transaction wire. It’s going to be wild and frenetic to see players and front office staff work to get signings/physicals/roster construction done in a short period of time.

   For the Dodgers where does CK and KJ end up? Is Freeman a Dodger? Is TB a Dodger? Where does AF find more starting pitching?

   Get it done and lets play ball.

   1. Regarding CK and KJ – Not the Dodgers.
      Regarding Freeman – Yes!
      Regarding TB – Yes!
      Miller and Pepiot. They don’t need any more. Bauer, Bueller, Urias, Gonsolin, Heaney, White, Jackson, Miller, Pepiot, May.

      In all honesty, Bauer is the linchpin here. If he comes back, they have enough to start the season. But, I can see them make a trade to get some insurance. A’s, Marlins, Reds are likely trading partners. Landon Knack is most likely to be traded.

      1. I agree with Bauer. The easy thing is just to let him play. The Dodgers are already paying him to play and just him being the #3 really solves the starting pitching question mark. Rodon is the only FA starting pitcher out there who is a difference maker and he wore down as the season progressed. Reds are probably gonna want one or more of Miller, Pepiot, etc to get Castillo.

         1. Miller and Pepiot have a chance of being better than Castillo. It ain’t gonna happen. I was thinking Gray.

            1. yeah. One year left on his deal with the Reds. Cheap at 10 mil. I don’t think he’s as much of an impact as Bauer, and the Reds might not want to deal him until midseason when they’re out of it. Castillo seems more of a 1:1 performance trade with Bauer, and he’s too expensive.

9. After seeing these updates, I thought for sure there would be some positive news this morning. I should have known better, I guess.

   It looks like the owners were the first side to blink and make some significant progress towards meeting in the middle. This makes me believe that a deal will be done soon. After meeting all night, I just don’t see how the Players Union can stall this any further.

   I’m hoping that they’re dotting I’s and crossing T’s at this point.

   Assuming that a deal gets done, what are you most excited about for the upcoming season?

   Who is your breakout player for the Dodgers this year?

   Who do you think will be the biggest challenge to the Dodgers within the division?

   Who do you think will be the biggest challenge to the Dodgers in the NL?

   I’ll go first…

   The possibility of Pepiot or Miller joining the rotation

   Lux – I think he’s the player we saw in September. Look for him to play SS next year as Trea Turner enters free agency.

   The Padres – Talent wise, they’re a better team than the Giants. New coach will probably help get them on the same page. I’m looking at a Hosmer upgrade at 1B one way or another.

   I’m having a real hard time with the last one. The 88 win Braves were much better in the post-season than they were during the regular season. The Giants will be lost without Posey. I think I’ll go with the Padres as the second best team in the league, but Tatis’ shoulder ain’t gonna fix itself.

   1. I think with the increase in the salary cap (I’m just going to call it that) it will make the Dodgers more willing to open up the wallet for Freeman.

      I’d love to see what Pepiot and Miller can do. Don’t think they’ll make a major impact this year.

      Yeah, I think Lux will turn the corner. You have to remember the guy hit .400 in the minor leagues just a couple of years ago and was a consensus #2 ranked prospect. With Muncy hurt, he’ll get plenty of time at 2nd, and if he continues to work on playing the outfield he’ll get plenty of starts – the leftie version of CT3.

      And speaking of that, I still think a Dodger weakness is going to be the bench. Lux and CT3 will help a lot, and hopefully Edwin Rios comes back healthy and regains his swing, but last year was a big whiff with DJ, Neuse, et. al. AF is really good at putting together a bullpen out of spare parts and retreads. Not as good with position players.

      Everything just seemed to come together for the Giants last year. I don’t think even Zaidi anticipated it, and he probably would have preferred they stunk so he could continue to methodically build up the organization. Aside from Posey, their position players are old. Webb might turn out to be a bona fide ace, but with Gausman gone they are thin at SP.

      The Padres have all the talent. They are organizationally dysfunctional. The Dodgers have made it a priority to trade for and bring up high character guys and have put a lot of effort into developing a culture. Tatis is immature, Hosmer is clubhouse poison and Manny is Manny.

   2. i don’t think they are close at all B&P.

      1. Happily, i may be wrong (again!)

         Interesting that the International draft is proving to be as tough to solve as the pre-arb compensation

         1. I’m generally a realist with optimistic tendencies. I’m optimistic because the league has made the most concessions IMO. What have the players conceded? Coming down from their offer of large pay increases across the board? The League started with modest raises, but, they’re offering raises nonetheless. If the league took the player’s stance, they would have started with a reduction in every area.

            I also find it odd that the International Draft is of high importance. International amatures should be paid equally to domestic amateurs. Maybe they should just include International players in one draft. After the number of rounds is complete, every team is allowed to sign any leftovers.

            1. yeah.

               If it were up to my devices, I’d have no Int’l draft.

               International drafts hurt organizations that try hard (less upside to scouting and developing relationships) and hurts the players.

   3. If we sign Freeman, that’s going to make Lux a utility guy and that will greatly inhibit his development. That’s one reason I have very mixed feelings about signing Freddie. I think Lux will only reach his potential if he plays every day and is not moved all over the diamond.

      I’ll be very surprised if the Giants win more than 85 games this year. As far as I’m concerned the Padres are by far the second strongest team in the division and I expect them to strongly challenge us for the division.

      I don’t expect to see Pepiot or Miller in the rotation this year unless we have major injury problems. They would both benefit by having a full year at AAA. Next year, full speed ahead.

10. I woke up this morning and saw that there was no news on a deal. But I had expected nothing less. Reading MLBTR I can see there still are some gaps in what the players want and what the league wants to offer. But I think things have moved enough where they can get it done today. Hopefully that happens. What happens when the lockout ends will be chaos. There will be a flurry of activity. Graterol and Treinen have been at the MLBPA facility in Arizona, Bauer dropped in there for a little while yesterday but left without speaking to reporters. Manfred will have to make a decision on him soon. Especially if there is a deal in place by today.

    1. I don’t think Manfred has the energy to screw Bauer after these grueling lockout negotiations. The players union and Bauer’s legal team will eat him alive. He won’t have support from owners or players on the issue. He’s on an Island in regards to Bauer and he’s probably just hoping to keep his job after this CBA is finalized.

11. If they don’t agree today, I am going to talk really bad about the players.

    Today is the first day since the lockout that I have my TV at work on MLB.

    1. Talk bad about the players?!??!

       WTF does that mean? Criticize their negotiation strategy? Insult them personally? Beg them to offer the solutions you think fair?

       And why wait? It means bupkes.

12. It does indeed appear as if the owners have moved toward the players on many economic core issues. Imagine being a super talented 22 year-old kid who makes it to the big leagues at $700,00-$770.000 per year. You get per diem allowance, stay at the finest hotels with room service while another 22 year-old kid wears a 30 lb. rough sack, carries an M-16, has to wear a kevlar helmet while earning $35,000 per year. In another example a 22 year-old “fresh out of teachers school” college graduate takes on a job to teach at an inner-city school for $45,000 per year, or an aspiring medical student, who might develop a cure for cancer one day, has to find a way to pay back student loans totaling $500,000+.

    If the MLPBA and Scott Boras don’t agree to the latest CBA offer by the MLB (owners) they can go @#&* themselves as far as I’m concerned.

    Sorry, but I have no compassion for the pay and working conditions for MLB players.

    1. You don’t get out of teacher’s school until you’re at least 24-25. You need a 4 year degree and need to pass a test just to get into a credential program, then at least two more years of bureaucracy before you can get a job as a teacher. Plus, you get to work for free as a student teacher for a semester earning $0/per hour. My son is going through that process now. 3 years at JC, 2 at Uni, 3 at credential program. He’s 26 and will be finished after the fall semester.

    2. Great point.
       These MLB players don’t realize how good they have it compared to the rest of the country.
       Although I think Boras, Max and the MLBPA executive committee are controlling the Union and speaking for others.
       I imagine that Dodgers like McKinstry, Vesia, Bruihl, Beaty, Ferguson, Phillips, Bickford, and White would all agree to the latest MLB proposal in a minute and be ecstatic to make the higher min salary of $700,000 this year. They have an opportunity to play in MLB and make more in meal money than they made in salary at AAA. They are not worried about making $44 million per year instead of $43 million like the MLBPA exec committee. Most will never be free agents. They just want to earn their MLB stripes and prove themselves against the best.
       I think MLBPA is doing a disservice to the majority of its 1200 members by fighting over these minute CBT details on behalf of agents like Boras.
       And both players and owners are harming the MLB industry for years.
       March madness, NFL free agency, NBA, Soccer, MMA, Netflix, and other options will fill any void left by the MLB lockout. And many fans will not return to baseball. After the 2020 arguments about money in the covid shortened season, mask requirements to watch outdoor games, and the MLB moving the all star game from Atlanta for a phony reason, I had already lost some interest in MLB. This lockout may be the last straw for me to move on from MLB baseball for good, after 55 years as a fan.

13. No deal today the stalemate lingers on. Shaking my head.

14. Jeff Passan:
    Major League Baseball plans to cancel two more series, bringing the total to the first two weeks of the regular season, sources tell ESPN.

15. International draft “non-starter” for Latin players and might not be acceptable to union even with major MLB give, sources tell @TheAthletic. Union in latest proposal still wants qualifying offer eliminated, as well as higher CBT thresholds and pre-arb pool than MLB has offered.

    On minimum salaries: MLBPA now starts at $710k and goes up to $780k. Players were recently starting at $725k, had dipped to $715k before this offer. MLB remains at $700k to start, finishing at $770k.

    MLBPA proposal today moved to $65 million on prearbitration pool and $232m, $235m, $240m, $245m, $250m on CBT thresholds over the deal.

    MLB answered PA proposal by offering three options:
    1. Agree to eliminate draft-pick comp, examine int’l draft. 2. Give MLB option to reopen CBA in couple of years if union won’t agree to draft. 3. Agree to int’l draft and elimination of draft-pick comp.

    Union would find idea of re-opener unappealing, sources say. If deal in few years was working well for players, league would have option to escape and stage another lockout.

    The counterproposal players of the three options MLB proposed, per source: Parties have until Nov. 15 to agree to an international draft. If they don’t agree on it, then qualifying offer returns after 2022-23 offseason and international system also returns to status quo.

16. American players are subject to a draft and limitations on draft compensation based on total amount teams are allowed to spend. So MLB wants to impose similar rules for Latin players and this is a big “no”. Why?

    1. Because it’s better for players to not have their ability to earn money restrained by a draft?

       I’m sure if you asked the American players if they’d rather be able to sign with whomever offers the best situation and/or best money INSTEAD of whomever drafts them they would go with the former 10 times out of 10.

       Don’t get me wrong, the Int’l draft would do good stuff. It would eliminate the sleaziness of 12 year olds being signed to onerous contracts, and it would eliminate the pimpification of all these people who find young players and direct them to academies and teams.

       But I’m always for people making as much as they can.

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