The Dodgers Bullpen moved from #7 to #6 in bullpen ERA among all MLB teams. If this doesn’t impress you, then you are unimpressionable. A few short weeks ago, they were #18! Right now, their bullpen ERA is 3.53, but they started the climb when it was 4.47. In my opinion, the TOP BULLPENS have ERA’s below 3.00 and right about now, here are the TOP Bullpen ERA’s:
- #1 – Indians – 2.57
- #2 – Friars – 2.61
- #3 – Yankees – 2.85
- #4 – Blue Jays – 3.06
- #5 – Cubs – 3.24
- #6 – Dodgers – 3.53
Now I know that ERA is just one component of measuring a bullpen’s effectiveness, but almost always (if not always) a good bullpen has a good ERA. Many of you said the Dodgers could not win with this bullpen. Well, it is not exactly the same bullpen as the pieces are changing and we are seeing some prospects and some suspects. The Dodgers have used exactly 20 pitchers this year! TWENTY… and three-fourths of the season is still to be completed. Overall, the Dodgers team ERA is 3.03, which is second in MLB behind San Diego who has a 2.67 ERA. There is but one reason why: Depth! Many of you don’t understand how that works – the minor leaguer doesn’t have to come up and be Cy Young or Babe Ruth – they just have to play a role. Remember this too: The MLB batting average “AVERAGE” is down about 30 points this year, due to the Idiots who love to fix something that is not broke, so Noisy and Raley would normally be around .210 or so. Even DJ Peters has played a role by being able to play CF.
WHY THE DODGERS WILL WIN THE TEAM ERA BATTLE – The Padres have 8 pitchers with an ERA under 2.00! Need I say any more? OK, I will. Who believes that Mark “I am Unhittable” Melancon will continue to roll out there in his wheelchair and put up a 0.82 ERA? Baseball is a game of averages and ebbs and flows. Of those 8 pitchers with ERA’s below 2.00, I say “Enjoy it while you can, because it is unsustainable.” The Padres have some good pitchers, but not THAT good. They will regress – count on it!
The same is the true with the Giants, but not about their bullpen. The Giants relief corps is 20th in MLB with a 4.28 ERA. Their starters are #1 in all of baseball with a 2.58 ERA. San Diego is 2nd with a 2.73 Starter ERA, followed by the Dodgers at 2.86. Only a lunatic could look at the Giants rotation and conclude that they can sustain that. I do give Farhan credit for what he has done and they will be a formidable foe going forward… especially after all the old deadwood comes off the books. They will be big time players in the free agent market next year and as they drop from contention, look for Zaidi to trade some vets for prospects. I expect a big time fire sale. He will rebuild that team!
But, right about now, the Dodgers are in the driver’s seat. The hitting is coming around and Belli and Zach will be back in a week or so. The Dodgers are still #1 in OB%, #4 in OPS, #4 in runs scored (8 away from #1). What is interesting is that they are #17 in HR – so they are really down in that area due to the dead ball. Bellinger will help that and so will the return to form by Mookie and others, but the Dodgers may not be TOP 10 in HR this year. They are starting to learn to “manufacture runs” by hitting it against the shift and where they ain’t! We saw Tsutsugo do exactly that to drive in a run last night. The Dodgers have the 5th best record in baseball right about now and no one has had more injuries. Could it be the depth? “Nah, that can’t be it! Don’t confuse me with the facts.”
Dodger Minor League Report
- OKC Did Not Play!
- Tulsa was smoked 6-1 by the Wichita Wind Surge. The Drillers only had two hits. The best thing I can say about this game is that the Drillers drew 6 walks. Jeren Kendall is hitting a familiar .171. I guess one good thing was that Justin Bruihl pitched 1.2 innings and struck out 4 allowing no runs. BOXSCORE
- Great Lakes also lost 3-2 to Lake County. Miguel Vargas continues to hit well, going 2-4. Lionel Valera (21-year-old SS) hit his second HR, and he also hit a triple. He also had a double, just missing the cycle as he went 3-4. Bobby Miller started and went two innings, allowing 1 hit and no runs while striking out 3. Clayton Beeter pitched one inning and struck out 2. It was a good start for the Loons, but then Drury, Belge, and Fink gave up three runs to lose the game. Braidyn Fink is now 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA. BOXSCORE
- Rancho Cucamonga beat the Storm like rented mules, 8-2. They pounded out 13 hits and did not draw a walk. Jake Vogel was 2-5 with a stolen base. Sam McWilliams was 3-6 with two doubles. Sauryn Lau was 3-4 and Edwin Mateo was 2-4 as well. Hyin-il Choi (20-year-old RH) started and went 5 innings, allowing 2 hits, ZERO walks and 3 K’s. Aldry Acosta (21-year-old 6′ 4″ RH) finished the game throwing 2.1 scoreless innings. BOXSCORE
The Dodgers bullpen is average and, as it currently stands, ain’t gonna get it done in the playoffs.
Yes, the ERA is a respectable 3.68, which is good for 6th in baseball. However –
WHIP is 1.37, which is 8th worst in baseball. Their BB/9 is 4.71 walks per 9 innings, which is 6th worst in baseball. Their Fielding Independent Pitching measure, or FIP, is 3.95, which is 15th – right in the middle.
They have 44 SDs, or Shutdowns versus 24 MDs, or Meltdowns. This is a Shutdown to Meltdown ratio of 65%, which is below average. If you want to get even more into the weeds, the team’s Win Probability Added measure divided by Leverage Index, or WPA/LI is – .13, which isn’t very good.
So, the Dodgers relief corps hasn’t been very good. But, there are some bright spots, and I think things will be looking up towards the latter half of the season. –
Joe Kelly has looked pretty good. Maybe that tumor really did affect his pitching, and now that he’s tumor free, he’s pitching like the guy AF paid 8 mil to get. Cory Knebel was looking good when he was playing. The Dodgers should have him back at full strength in the second half sometime. It’s a longshot, but Caleb Ferguson is throwing already. He was pitching so well in 2020 before he went down. MAYBE he’s a factor.
V Gon has been really solid, and so has Treinen. Kenley, as long as he’s kept in the fridge for a few days between games, is dominant when he’s Angry Kenley. Jimmy Nelson has been good, and can be a really effective multi-inning guy, as can Price in the lefty role.
I think once things get settled and guys who are injured come back the bullpen should be fine. I still don’t know what’s going on with Graterol. Make a trade for Kimbrel after the ASB and the team is GTG. Yeah, that probably won’t happen, but it’d be nice.
2nd Half Relief Corps –
Angry Kenley
Healthy Knebel
Bazooka Graterol
Tumor Free Kelly
Trienen
V-Gon
Jimmy Nelson
Cy Young Winner Price
And Craig Kimbrel
Works for me.
… and I’m all for diversity of opinions, just not diversity of personalities and behaviors. I have a deep seated prejudice against jerks. Sorry, Jeff.
You can say that overall the bullpen has been average, but that’s with guys pitching in innings they shouldn’t for a good chunk of the season so far. “As it currently stands”, won’t have Cleavinger, Vesia and White pitching in high leverage situations. “As it currently stands” as in now, has much better options in Price and Kelly taking some of those innings with Brusdar and Knebel taking those spots in the not so distant future. If our own guys come back, we won’t need or have room for Kimbrel. A fixed Kenly, V-Gone, Knebel and Treined will trump the back end of almost every other bullpen and Price, Kelly, Nelson and Graterol is better than everyone else’s 5-8.
I think about the peripheral’s that you mentioned and consider the inordinate amount of walks from Vesia, Jansen and Clevinger and I’ll consider those outliers and all of that effects those poor WHIP, FIP and BB/9 numbers. On top of that, I think back to all the bleeders and shift hits pushing WHIP and FIP upward. I think the law of averages will pull those numbers back down.
That second half relief core looks great. I would say historically good. With that bullpen and starting rotation, we could field a team of MT, me, you, Watford, Bluto, Cassidy, Eric and PhilJones and still win some games. Mostly because PhilJones can probably still hit.
You said everything I had to say, excellent, thank you !!!
Kahnle also may be ready late in the season, but I would be surprised if AF adds someone like Kimbrel is the price is right. Same goes with a righthanded bat, perhaps even a Kris Bryant, who can play every OF spot plus 3rd and 1st. (Albert should really say his farewll with on one-day contract with St. Louis, where he is beloved.)
I wonder when Darien Nunes (“future closer,” says Mark) will get the call from OKC. I really don’t understand the vagaries of the 40-man roster, but I gather that is a factor, and a reason why guys like White, Uceta and Santana are ahead of Nunes.
And then there’s Josiah Gray….
Why wouldn’t the No. 1 pitching prospect be considered? As I’ve mentioned before, Dodgers had great success with Bob Welch and Dave Stewart starting out in the bullpen before moving into the rotation. What is this magical difference between starting and relieving? Same ball, right? Same strike zone too.
Feeling pretty good right now. With a W tonight, we will have 8 out of a 9 game homestand. Just what the doctor ordered after a horrendous couple of weeks.
I watched Kenley’s postgame presser. He’s on a new workout routine and the results are starting to pay off. It’s scary that he can hit 97 one night and has trouble throwing the ball through a wet paper bag the next. His mechanics as head are getting in the way of dominance. If he can get that straight, he’ll be vintage Kenly again, or better! Better because he no longer relies on a single pitch. Better is possible. HR/9 and H/9 are at or near career lows. BB/9 is at a career high and his K/9 is just below his most dominate years. Can he put it all together?
Mark, the pen is very good right now. You take away the guys that shouldn’t be pitching as much as they have and we have a top 3 pen. That’s going to happen when we get Graterol and Knebel back. This pen is going to be historic if we can keep guys healthy.
I’m a little concerned with the bats going into the Giants series. JT looks cold, Beaty disappeared. Albert and Yoshi are doing the bare minimum. Muncy is the only “Hot” hitter right now, but Lux, Smith and Betts look like they’re getting there. Can we get a few of these guys hot for this series, or is better pitching going to knock us back down?
A series win is a must since I have Giants fans staying over this weekend. But, I am very impressed with this homestand considering Pollock, Bellinger, Seager, Z-mack, Gonsolin, Knebel, Graterol and Alexander are all on the IL.
Damn this team is going to be great when they’re all back.
Well , I agree with much you say.
But Lux IS hot. Blazing hot.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Lux yet. He said in an interview, just a couple of days ago that he’s getting close to how he felt in 2019. But, you’re right, he’s been pretty damn good for the last two weeks now.
Okay, the bullpen is good when it works, not so good when it doesn’t. We’ve seen some of both, but it’s early. Injuries haven’t helped, but during this particular surge the bullpen has been much better.
The return of David Price should help, but what are the plans for the lefty moving forward? Building him into the fifth starter or wait for the Cat Man?
Everyone should be concerned about the offense. No consistency there, too many hitters on the injured list. Hopefully that changes soon. But all across baseball, offense is down. Maybe MLB messed up with the ball. Will say it again, the shift needs to go.
JP Hoornstra, who covers baseball for the Daily News, noted more of baseball’s best players aren’t on the field this year compared to 2019. The Dodgers have been the hardest hit team in baseball in terms of the talent they are missing. IL stints, strikeouts rising and no-hitters happening with regularity, six so far, including one Tuesday, another Wednesday. Not a good look for the game. Honestly, a tad boring.
I’m not sure if some on this site understand how difficult it is to do what Mark does. I currently write two columns a week, non sports, and that’s fairly easy. But to write daily columns, that’s a different story. I tip my hat.
No, it’s hard to force yourself to be creative and write. I applaud Mark for his time and effort. I also write a newsletter and it’s not an easy task.
I wouldn’t say more pitching and less home runs is boring. I think pitching with the general rise in strikeouts does take away some of the action.
Who goes down to AAA or gets DFA when Bellinger, Mckinstry, Pollock and Seger are all activated? 3 are known Raley,Peters and Neuse. Who is the fourth?
It comes down to Yoshi and Beaty at that point. It could be Z-Mack if Yoshi and Beaty are performing since they both have more experience. Yohsi, Beaty and Z-Mack will all have had an appropriate amount of time on the roster together by then making for a good tryout. My guess is Beaty if they’re all healthy since his splits are worse than the others and his positional flexibility is about the same as Yoshi, not as good as Z-Mack.
Well that would be great if that tough decision had to be made. I don’t want to jinx the team, but by the time all 4 are well and ready to contribute, it is likely somebody else will have an injury. If not, I’m sure some phantom injury will show up so that someone can get a week or so of R&R.
Morning gang. I am still concerned about the amount of walks issued by Gonzalez. He walked the first hitter he faced on 4 pitches last night. He now has 11 K’s and 9 walks. Lousy ratio. And his lack of control the other day forced Roberts into using Kenley for a 4 out save. He is not pitching the way he pitched in the playoffs last season. But that could change. I am not worried about down the road when Belli and McKinstry return. I am almost certain that there will be some sort of move at the trade deadline. Giants are winning again today so they are not going to gain ground on them most likely. All they can do is hold serve. Pujols 3 games in blue, Dodgers 3 wins. Granted some shoddy fielding by the D-Backs contributed. What I am waiting for is Mookie Betts to finally get hot and have a long stretch of games where he has multiple hits. Turner is slumping now. But I expect JT will fix what ever is wrong.
6th no hitter of the season thrown last night by Kluber. The MLB record is 7. I would think that will fall the way hitters are missing balls this season. Time for new philosophy. Actually old style baseball. Hit the pitch where it is thrown instead of trying to launch everything over the fence. Balls will fly further once the weather heats up, especially in LA.
I am not sure this ball will fly over the fence. The pitchers are dominating the hitters and more are being hit. It is very concerning.
From The Athletic:
The Dodgers’ depth, while not as vaunted as recent years, has remained among the best in baseball. It’s why they’ve remained afloat even after they have dealt with a swath of injuries. They’ve tiptoed around those issues even after their rut earlier in the month, and the roster picture could shift again relatively quickly. Bellinger is soon starting a rehab assignment, as is McKinstry, which could shift Taylor back to more outfield play and beef up the club’s bench. Gonsolin could return to the rotation not long after he’s eligible May 31.
Help is on the way, and Lux and Taylor are making it easier to make do.
I never go by what a RP ERA is. What I go by is IR and IRS. If you want to have an accurate read on how good a RP is then he should be partially responsible for the IR scoring while he’s on the mound.
So how is that accomplished? Perhaps sharing the run with the SP. Maybe 50% or 25% added to the RP ERA and the exact amount subtracted from the SP ERA.
I agree Richie, inherited runners should be factored into the ERA somehow. That gives you a better idea of how good a job your relief pitchers are doing.
There is a rule which I don’t understand. It says if you hit a ball in the air and the runner on 3rd comes home the batter will not be charged with an AB. However, if he hits on the ground, he is charged with an AB. What’s the difference the run came home after the ball was hit.
That is a very good question. If there is a sac fly stat, why not a sac grounder? Or maybe eliminate both.
Maybe the original rule makers thought you had to have good contact to hit a fly ball but could hit a grounder by accident or sheer luck. Still makes no sense to me. Do both or neither.
Midgets destroying the Reds again. 16-2 middle innings. They are beginning to worry me .
Dodgers better bring their A game to SF over the weekend or we could find us in a big hole come Monday.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I still think the Giants will finish 10 games out of first by the time this is all over but I’ve got to admit, they are playing some very good baseball.
Would still rather go into SF with them on a winning streak and having scored a bazillion runs today, rather than have to face a team that had been shutout the previous day and was on an extended losing streak. Reversion to the mean and all that sort of stuff.
I agree, they’re due for a losing streak. Let’s start it!
Giants have a good to very good front office.
They are probably over-performing, but it’s a kinda fun roster.
Pretty much the entire team is over performing their career norms by a lot. Ruf and Crawford are a couple of hundred OPS points better than what you would hope for from them and neither are Spring Chickens. It’s just not sustainable.
Price gets the start tonight for us. Hopefully he can give us 2-3 innings.
Said in the last thread that IMHO the Dodgers should go with him as the Nr. 5 starter rest of the regular season.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I can see the point about relief pitchers getting some kind of charge for inherited runners on their ERA, but I can see why the current system is in place. Starting pitchers were expected to finish games for the first 100 years or so. Relievers used to be firemen often putting out the fire and finishing the game. It’s not until the last 30 years that we’ve seen so much specialization. So much so, that they had to create a rule to keep Doc from using three pitchers every other inning. I think just keeping track of inherited runners is good enough. The pitcher that got pulled shouldn’t have left a mess for other to clean up, so he should take the hit to his ERA.
As far as sacrifices go. Yes, a fly ball to the outfield doesn’t count as an AB when a runner scores. A sacrifice bunt works the same way, when a runner scores it doesn’t count as an AB. They are similar in the fact that the act of sacrificing an out to score a run was intentional.
It’s hard to argue that a ground ball that scores a run is intentional because if it were, it would have been a bunt.
I think “swinging bunts” will become more prominent too though. With so much shifting there is an argument to make for just sticking your bat out to try to push to the weak side, then you would have to determine if it was intentional or not.
The art of bat control and intentionally placing the ball around the field would result in 20 free hits against shifts. But #1, the player needs to be committed to practicing the art. The Joey Gallo attitude that that “don’t pay me to hit the other way” is prevalent. But they do pay guys to WIN.
I am not a big fan of rule changes to prevent shifting. I think the players should learn to beat shifts.
Growing up, we learned bat control by playing “pepper”. And not the later “flip” version. True pepper involved placing the ball down a line of players, not missing the ball or popping up. That is now completely gone.
An interesting trivia question to an old time groundskeeper would be, what stadium was the last to remove the instructions behind the plate “NO PEPPER”?
I could not disagree with you more. You said” The pitcher that got pulled shouldn’t have left a mess for other to clean up, so he should take the hit to his ERA”. How about this : His team is leading 1-0 with 2 outs in the 9th inning and a man on 1st . The manager comes to pull the SP in favor of the RP. The man on 1st steals 2nd. The batter then hits a single to knock in the trying run. Do you think the SP should be liable for that run because when he let the game the runner was NOT in scoring position. The SP had no control over the game when he left. I think it’s more accurate that BOTH SP & RP share the responsibility and that should be incorporated into both ERA’s.
In 2017, on May 20th both Arizona and Colorado were ahead of the Dodgers. By the end of the season Dodgers won by 11 games. When we get healthy and Giants return to the norm I expect similar results. Tho the Pads are more talented and may make it more interesting.
I LIKED that Joe Kelly last night. Granted only 9 pitches, but awesome control w/ 7 strikes in that. Seems even better than that 2018 Kelly who was up to 100 sometimes but was one of those “effectively wild” dudes. I will take 96-98 with the control he has shown the last couple games over that any day.
On Brusdar coming back, I sure hope he finds some control on stuff other than the straight hard stuff. Fun to watch a guy throw 100, but if his breaking stuff stinks like it did earlier this year, it is going to be an issue for him. Most MLB guys can easily hit 100 if that is all you have that you can get over the plate.
* For some reason I watched the Yankee’s game yesterday. I just stumbled on the no-hitter. Kluber was great. His breaking ball was invisible. I bet the Rangers privately aren’t too happy. Kluber was owed $17.5 million in 2020 by Texas and had a club option for $18 million in 2021. That was the price tag was too steep for a pitcher who threw one inning in 2020 (and made only seven starts in 2019). So, the Yankees give him 11 million on kind of a flyer and to add insult to injury he no hits the Rangers. Oh the life of a GM.
* How much did I like Tsutsugo’s liner to left to beat the swift for an RBI. I’d like to see more of that and likely will as he seems tardy on inferior cheese.
* V-gon’s outing could have gone south in a hurry and always starts with a walk. He made big pitches when he needed to.
* Why did Tori Lovello argue so fiercely on Peacock being called out for being inside the lane? He had no case. The call was obvious. Was that an attempt to fire up the troups?
* Joe Kelly…………….
*KJ……………. I don’t recall seeing him throw a pitch below the top 1/3 of the zone and he dominated. I think mixing in stuff besides the cutter has worked miracles.
* I thought Luz’s ground ball to 1st in the 5th could have been ruled a base hit. It was hit pretty hard and could have been “too hot to handle” It seems like the rules could now establish some minimum exit velocity to consider on the THTH rule. Balls hit a little right or left of a long hop off the chest at 105 mph might constitute “hot”.
* I thought Mantiply was a long green insect with a gift for arithmetic until last night.
* You can see why Albert is well liked – by everybody it appears. Last night I saw a reason why. When he got to 1st, the Bat Boy ran out to retrieve Albert’s guards; just like every other time. But Albert tapped the bat boy’s helmet affectionately, smiled at the kid and said thanks. I’ve never seen that before. I’m sure it made the kid’s day. I don’t know if he’ll have a place on the squad later on, but he’s a class act.
“* I thought Mantiply was a long green insect with a gift for arithmetic until last night.”
That one deserves an award Phil.
I couldn’t agree more about Albert. He’s genuinely a good guy and is one of the best hitters to play the game. He’s not doing much, but he seems to pick up those RBI with regularity. I sure hope he catches a last wind and we can ride him.
I also have some optimism for Tsutsugo. Keep working with him and hopefully he’ll find that stroke that made him one of Japan’s best hitters.
Albert and Yoshi are both in the starting lineup tonight batting 6 and 7. I like Lux batting in that 8th spot to give Mookie someone to drive in.
Price is on the Bump as the starter or opener. I hope he can take down 3-4 innings. Doc should let David dictate how far he goes instead of having a predetermined limit. Let him keep going if he feels good.
I’m predicting a long outing for Bauer tomorrow night, making his rival game debut. He’s gonna have a little extra for the team he grew up hating as a Dodger’s fan. No need for a long man for a couple of days. Let Uceta and Nelson chew up some innings.
Jimmy freakin Nelson! You’re the man! Thought I’d have to eat my words after his first couple of outings but he looks terrific now! Another bonehead move by AF who can’t put a bullpen together!
Doc has some sort of infatuation with Joe Kelly. It’s sickening.
They are paying the guy $8 MM/year. They are stuck with him on the roster. He has NEVER been consistently good. One of the few missteps by Friedman in the past 3 years.
Eat the $8 million and keep Floro was the correct call.
Nelson has looked great. I trust Kenley, Treinen, Gonzalez, Nelson, and Price. That’s it from this pen right now. Knoebel, and Graterol would make it much stronger obviously.
Smith bomb
What’s Roberts doing? He needs to be fired! How many times have we’ve told him that he can’t pitch Jansen on back to back nights! The guy just never listens to us!
Little premature there Cassidy. Kenley got the save, his 3rd in 4 days. He looks like a different pitcher right now. Now, they probably could not use him like that against a good hitting team, but against the depleted D Backs, it worked. HR # 668 for Albert. Right about now AF looks like a genius signing him. The Tsutsugo trade, not so much. My concern right now is JT. He has been slumping for several weeks and his average is close to dipping below .280. He has been pitiful with men on base lately.
Very satisfying win and outstanding job by the Pen.
Orel did a great job of explaining KJ’s improvements from a mechanical point of view. Hitting 97mph on consecutive nights. Impressive.
Agree with the Albert accolades, and you can tell that his teammates are loving having him around.
What a brilliant move for him, from a massively struggling Halos to the WS Champions. No wonder he’s happy.
The decision to save Bauer for SF looks a good one now.
Exe Dodger Alex Wood goes for the Gnats tomorrow. 5-0 with a sub 2 ERA> Dodgers have their work cut out for them.