Why We Need MiLB Production Before Prospects Are More Than Prospects

Posted By on January 11, 2021

I have lost count of the number of times I have read that Kody Hoese is expected to have a big impact for the Dodgers in 2021.  I find myself smh and disagreeing. But to some, it comes across as me denigrating the talent of Kody Hoese.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  I have not seen enough of Kody Hoese to know whether he is going to be a successful ML 3B or a career MiLB player.  But IMO, he is not going to impact the ML Dodgers in any way in 2021, and maybe not until late 2022.

Per MLB Pipeline, Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo, Kody does not have any single skill that is rated plus.  He is considered a slightly above average power and arm, and is considered a slightly below average runner.

Baseball America’s latest scouting report is as follows:

“Hoese is a mature hitter who has excellent pitch recognition and controls the strike zone. He rarely chases and forces pitchers to come to him. When they do, Hoese unloads on balls with his natural strength and leveraged swing to produce plus raw power. He can turn on balls for long home runs to left or drive them with authority the other way. With his approach, Hoese is a potential above-average hitter who should clear 20-25 home runs annually. Hoese is a fringe-average runner who ticks up to average underway. He reads balls off the bat well at third base and projects to be at least an average defender with plus hands and an above-average arm.”

The above reads as if Kody could eventually become a regular in a ML lineup.  Some with similar scouting reports have gone on to become All Stars, while others turned out to be busts.  Unlike some, I am not ready to anoint Kody Hoese as the next Dodger 3B for the next decade.  And because I am not, that does not indicate that I believe he will be a bust.

Maybe it is because I have followed MiLB for so long that I am a firm believer in the Dodger development team.  I think they get as much as, if not more, out of their prospects.  But they need to do that through the MiLB system.  If prospects do not need development through their MiLB system, then why have one? 

How much development is enough?  Thank You Captain Obvious, but every player has a different time frame.  IMO, 68 PA in rookie league and 103 PA at Great Lakes (low A Ball) is not nearly enough to put a player on the fast track for MLB.  His production does bear out what the scouting reports have said, but that almost always means that the player will continue to progress in a normal flow.

I thought I would take a look a few recent college 1st round 3B picks and maybe draw some correlations.

  1. Todd Frazier – 1st round by the Reds (2007) – Rutgers – 2 X All Star
  • 2007 – Rookie and Low A
  • 2008 – Low A and A+
  • 2009 – AA and AAA
  • 2010 – AAA
  • 2011 – AAA and partial MLB
  • Todd had 2,232 PA in MiLB

2. Josh Donaldson – 1st round by the Cubs (2007) – Auburn University – 3 X All Star, 2 X SS, MVP

  • 2007 – Rookie and Low A
  • 2008 – Low A and A+
  • 2009 – AA
  • 2010 – AAA (late season call to MLB)
  • 2011 – AAA
  • 2012 – Split AAA and MLB
  • Josh had 2,324 PA in MiLB

3. Matt Chapman – 1st round by the A’s (2014) – Cal State Fullerton – 1 X All Star, 2 X GG, 2 X Platinum Glove

  • 2014 – Rookie, Low A, and A+
  • 2015 – A+
  • 2016 – AA and AAA
  • 2017 – AAA and MLB
  • Matt had 1,377 PA in MLB

4. Alex Bregman – 1st round by Houston (2015) – Louisiana State University – 2 X All Star, 2 X SS

  • 2015 – Low A and A+
  • 2016 – AA, AAA, MLB
  • Alex had 679 PA in MLB

5. Nick Senzel – 1st round by Cincinnati (2016) – 2nd Overall – University of Tennessee

  • 2016 – Rookie and Low A
  • 2017 – A+ and AA
  • 2018 – AAA
  • 2019 MLB
  • Nick had 1,028 PA in MiLB

Oakland, under Billy Beane, has always pushed their top prospects quicker than most teams. Thus Chapman was pushed through the system.  Matt was always a great glove, but with limited power necessary for a corner infielder.  Chapman found his power stroke in 2015 while in the California League (A+), and he has continued to hit for power ever since.  But like most of today’s power hitters, there is a price…lower batting average and more strikeouts, and those results are now acceptable.  As an aside, how would you like to be the player who followed Nolan Arenado at El Toro High School?  That was Matt Chapman’s task.  Arenado was the star SS and pitcher as a senior, while Chapman, a sophomore, played SS only when Arenado pitched.

Matt rose through the system quickly, but not as fast as was Bregman with Houston.  I started to follow Bregman while he was still at LSU.  He had everything.  Great glove, great bat, potential power, above average running ability (especially once he gets started).  I always believed he was a can’t miss.  Pre 2016 season, I predicted that Bregman would get called up before the end of the season.  He was called up, and made his ML debut on July 25, 2016. Bregman was my favorite non-Dodger before the cheating scandal.

I would be remiss if I did not mention Anthony Rendon, 1st round out of Rice,  who played very little MiLB (382 PA).  But that is a HUGE anomaly. 

I do not believe that Hoese has anywhere near the talent of Bregman or Rendon, and he while he could develop the power of Chapman, he will never be a platinum glove.  Could he develop into a Todd Frazier, Nick Senzel, or even a Josh Donaldson?  Donaldson would be a tall order, but certainly plausible.  Frazier is a more realistic goal.    However, both of those players had more than 2,000 PA in MiLB before they were deemed ready to matriculate to the ML level.  Senzel is still an unknown.  Perhaps he was rushed, but he did have more than 1,000 PA.  As prolific as he appeared to be coming up through the system (.312/.388/.508/.895), Cincinnati was not convinced he could be an impact at the ML level when they expected to contend,  and they signed Mike Moustakas to play 2B, moving Senzel to CF so his bat could stay in the lineup.

I would bring another top prospect I liked a lot during his climb into the conversation, Ian Happ.  However, suffice to say that he was another top college draft pick (2015 – University of Cincinnati by Cubs), who had more than 1,200 MiLB PA.  He took a couple more years after MiLB before he had any real impact.

Ian Happ

Hoese is going to need more than 171 PA at Rookie and low A before he can be deemed ready to make the jump.  I hope Hoese develops into an All Star 3B for the Dodgers.  But he needs time to develop.  We need to see how he handles the transition from A+ to AA.  If he succeeds, then a potential time frame could be created to monitor his climb through the organization, but I am not about to predict that Hoese will have an impact on a WS contending team in 2021, and probably not 2022.  The Minor Leagues exist for a reason.  Chances are Hoese will start when A and AA teams begin their 2021 season in June.  AAA will have about 6 weeks on the AA and A players, making it more difficult to get promoted to AAA, thus more difficult to move to AA.  Will some do it? YES!!!.  Will Hoese be one of them? Let’s see what he does at the lower levels first.

I am also perplexed with all of the positive fan comments on Gavin Lux on his climb to the top of the MiLB world, only to see many of those same fans want to see him traded as soon as possible to get top trade value because they do not believe in him as a player.  And yet some of those same people are ready to anoint Kody Hoese to be ready for MLB after less than 500 MiLB PA.    Without all of the facts known, I would choose to sign JT for two years and an option.  Let Hoese develop and be in a position to become the 3B by 2023.  Anything sooner is not realistic and unfair to Hoese.  What happens when he stumbles out the gate once he attains MLB status?  Will fans move on to the next “can’t miss” low A player?

This article has 50 Comments

  1. From the the last thread:

    SCDodgerFan
    January 11, 2021 at 12:12 am

    Hypothetical question: If fans are not allowed to attend games and 8 -10 teams file bankruptcy, do the players on those teams get paid?

  2. An organization will generally file for bankruptcy protection so that they can create a plan for reorganization. MLB’s constitution calls for MLB to take control of any team filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. MLB will make sure all payroll obligations are met (player and non-player). There would undoubtedly be some non player personnel who would be subject to layoffs, but if they performed services, they will be paid. Players are obligated for the term of their contracts.

    A good example is what happened to the Dodgers when Frank McCourt filed for bankruptcy protection, and a court battle ensued with MLB challenging McCourt’s ability to file for protection, and MLB’s constitution calling for MLB to take control of the Dodgers. See ESPN article below:

    https://www.espn.com/los-angeles/mlb/news/story?id=6708046

  4. “Bregman was my favorite non-Dodger before the cheating scandal.”

    Haha, Astro-wise, George Springer was the guy I always wanted (pre cheating, of course)

  5. Hard to tell with Kody. His tool projections go from 40 in ‘19 to 55 and 60 (power) in the future. When exactly is the future? He’s 24 in July. I don’t know what the Dodgers have planned but he looks like trade bait to me.

  6. Great post Jeff. My own opinion, which is worth spit, has always been that prospects are just that until they prove themselves on the field. There fore, I have never had a problem with the team trading a prospect for a proven major league player. That is one reason I felt the Dodgers fleeced Boston in the Mookie deal. To me it was Verdugo for Mookie. We win. Downs is a nice prospect for Boston, but looks to be a year or more away from even making his debut. Wong looks to be even further away. And Mookie helped LA win the big one. Hoese, Busch and all the others are nice to talk about, but until we see what they can do against other prospects trying to make thier way to the majors, they are nothing more than pieces in a huge puzzle, that do not necessarily fit in the puzzle. Report that a Kris Bryant trade could be finished some time this week. Seems the two finalists are the Braves and the Dodgers.

  7. Enjoyed your write up on Kody Hoese and comparisons to other players like Frazier, Donaldson, Chapman, etc. Thank you, AC. Hoping Hoese can move from AA to AAA without too much effort. Also rooting for Gavin Lux and think the Dodgers should sign Turner to a 2-year with one year option. Gavin Lux is not on my trade list. Anxious to see how other minor league prospects do this year in June and hope this suspension of minor league play in 2020, will not hurt them.

  8. A franchise killer is trading away future all star talent type prospects. They are the lifeblood of sustained success. So far AF has done a brilliant job of identifying those prospects. That gives me some hope about Lux. As far as Hoese and Busch who knows. Right now they can’t be classified as can’t miss prospects. As far as the bankruptcy issue there is also the new collective bargaining negotiations in 22. Any work stoppage issues there would surely wreak havoc to several clubs. MLB is in a very scary time right now

  9. Excellent article, Jeff!
    Hoese is a good prospect who should become a MLB player in 2-3 years. But Jeff did a good job putting his pro experience into perspective. He has only played 41 games in the minors in accumulating his 147 at bats. In low A ball at Great Lakes in 2019, he hit .264 in 91 at bats with 2 HRs. Earlier that summer he hit .357 in Rookie ball in 56 at bats against players 1.4 years younger than him. Unfortunately, the pandemic eliminated minor league play last year, and Kody only played at the alternate site with stats unavailable. Yes, reports were that he hit well at USC, but how well is uncertain.
    It is also helpful to recap the path Hoese took prior to joining the Dodgers. He was undrafted out of high school, and played 3 years at Tulane. Although Tulane is a D1 baseball school, it is not in a top conference and is considered a mid-major school. The most famous baseball alum from Tulane is Andrew Friedman. The observation here is that Kody was not highly rated or highly recruited after high school, and his competition in college was not elite. Once Kody reached Tulane, he played 44 games as a freshman and hit .213 with zero HRs in 122 at bats. As a sophomore in 2018, he became a full time starter and hit .291 with 5 HRs in 223 at bats. He showed enough potential to get drafted in 2018 in the 35th round by the Royals, but decided to return to Tulane. He was draft eligible after his sophomore season as he was an “older” sophomore who turned 21 by August. In his junior year in 2019, Kody had a fantastic season hitting .391 with 23 HRs in 235 at bats. This huge breakout season propelled Kody up the MLB draft boards, and he became a first round pick by the Dodgers in June 2019.
    Kody clearly made great strides in 2019, and getting elevated to the Alternate site is a testament to his progress in 2020. However, as recently as 2018, he was a solid, but not spectacular player at Tulane. I agree with Jeff that he needs quite a bit more seasoning in the minors before he is close to MLB ready.
    Also, it is striking that Kody Hoese is 4 months older than Gavin Lux, yet Gavin has 1,716 professional at bats compared to 147 pro at bats for Kody. Hopefully, Kody becomes an MLB all star, but the Dodgers should not count on MLB contributions from him until at least 2022.

      1. He sure won’t replicate Lux. Lux made his Major League debut at the age Hoese was drafted. Maybe he’s a late bloomer, or maybe he’s ready later this year. How are we gonna know? If the minors play, he’s gonna have to rip it up in a league he’s never seen before.

        Have we signed Turner or Bryant yet? It’s going to take two more years to build this Hoese. Dodgers have more immediate plans for third base.

        1. Hoese will be ready to replace Muncy when his contract expires.

          Busch should be able to DH sooner than that.

  10. I have no idea when Kody or Mike Busch will make the show, but it could be sooner than later.

    Prospects improve and grow in different ways and progress is not always linear. Kody has a history of such progress.

    In his first year at Tulane (age 19) he hit .213 with a .565 OPS with 0 HR. In his second year (age 20), he hit .291 with .803 OPS with 5 HR. He also played for Newport of the New England Baseball League that same year and hit .283 with a .863 OPS with 7 HR. At age 21, he proceeded to hit .391 with a 1.265 OPS with 23 HR. He seemingly put it all together. That same year he went to Rookie Ball and proceeded to tear up the league and was quickly moved to A Ball. In his 171 AB’s he hit a collective .299 with a .863 OPS and 5 HR.

    I expected to see him start at RC in 2020, but of course, the pandemic hit and we saw no progress. One would think that he would start back at GL (which is now Hi-A) but maybe he starts at Tulsa. I was impressed with what I saw in 2019, but we have no idea what he looks like now.

    Cody Bellinger started in the minors at age 17, while Kody Hoese was 19 when he started playing in college. Much like Cody B. who broke out with an unprecedented 30 HR, Kody H. seems to put stuff together quickly. Aaron Bates says this about him:

    “He creates a ton of leverage in his swing with his bigger frame,” Bates said of the 6’4″, 200 lb. former finance major. “He doesn’t have a lot of wasted movement at the plate, which allows him to wait longer and recognize pitches. Kody can really drive the ball to the opposite field. He showed an advanced approach in the limited at-bats he got last season.”

    What we don’t know is did 2020 slow his progress, did it accelerate it or did he stay the same??? I can’t say, but I think he is closer than most think. I thought Cody B was ready a year before most people did. This shall prove to be interesting.

    1. Break his 2019 numbers down. As a 21 year old against kids just out of high school (1.4 years older than average league age) Hoese hit: .357/.456/.643/1.099. He should have put up those numbers against that level of competition.

      But when he played against players more his age (.3 years younger than average league age) Hoese hit: .264/.330/.385/.715.

      Hoese probably should have gone to Ogden instead of Arizona Rookie League, where he would have played against players more his age. Ogden was Short Season A Ball.

      Why is he a better prospect than Miguel Vargas?

      As a 19 year old – Miguel Vargas at Great Lakes – .325/.399/.464/.864
      As a 19 year old – Miguel Vargas at Rancho – .284/.353/.408/.761

      Or, Jacob Amaya?

      As a 19 year old – Jacob Amaya at Great Lakes – .265/.390/.306/.696
      As a 20 year old – Jacob Amaya at Great Lakes – .262/.381/.394/.775
      As a 20 year old – Jacob Amaya at Rancho – .250/.307/.375/.682

      Two LAD teenagers in Arizona League in 2019:
      Diego Cartaya – 17 years old – .296/.353/.437/.790 as a catcher first time in the US
      Alex De Jesus – 17 years old – .276/.326/.374/.700 as a SS first time in the US – 2nd youngest batting qualifier in Arizona League. De Jesus will eventually make the move to 3B.

      2. I like his simple swing and how he stays very centered with a very uncomplicated swing, unlike Gavin Lux who has a very complicated swing (IMHO). For a player who has such sparse minor league experience, his approach at the plate is very advanced.

        Hoese went from unranked to #16 on the Fangraphs board in one year. I love his swing:

        To me, his swing is a thing of beauty. You just can’t teach that.

        1. Somebody taught him.

          I read all the stats too. 171 plate appearances in the lower minors isn’t much to go on. He’s 24 in July. Maybe he’s got it. Just not sure where he’s gonna put it this year. He needs to see AA pitching and soon.

  11. Cleveland seems to be very concerned about revenues going forward. How much depth would the Dodgers be willing to give up in a blockbuster trade with Cleveland?

    Bieber and José Ramírez for Rios, May, Ruiz, Pollock, and another pitcher?

    1. Pollock – 2021 Salary – $15MM
      Ramirez – 2021 Salary – $9MM
      Bieber – 2021 Salary – Pre Arbitration <$1MM If Cleveland wants to move players because of fear of loss of revenues, why would they move their top two remaining players and pay more in salary? I know it is a conversation starter, but conversations are going nowhere when you want to include AJ Pollock in deals to teams that want to get rid of salaries.

      1. I thought I had included cash from the Dodgers. I put Pollock in the trade because Cleveland wants an outfielder and agree the Dodgers would have to pay a lot of Pollock’s salary.

    1. I’ve read A ball Doug. Depends on where. The better Conferences, SEC, Big12, ACC, Pac12 are high A, most of the others are A.

      1. Most college players after the draft found themselves placed into Short Season A Ball. Some move up to full season A Ball after getting acclimated to professional baseball. NY-Penn League and Northwest League are Short Season A Ball. The Dodgers college players quite often found themselves in Ogden, which was considered an advanced Rookie League (Pioneer League). The Appalachian League was another advanced Rookie League. There will no longer be any short season A ball or Advanced Rookie Leagues in the new MiLB configuration. This will be a new scenario for drafted players. There will be less drafted players (20 rounds), and the draft will be a month later (July 11-July 13). We will need to wait and see where college drafted players are placed.

  13. Maybe we could throw Kelly in there as well. Well you wanted another pitcher! I’ll be disappointed if AF doesn’t pull off some type of 3-4 team trade this winter. Common AF, we’re bored!

  14. Question for LADT: With the Dodgers having won 8 straight NL West titles and so many years on top, how much has it affected their ability to get good draft picks given that as a winning ball club they don’t get the top picks? Not that the alternative (being losers) is any good.

    1. Friedman has been able to build depth and in 19 they got Hoese and Busch who profile very high. The system is not at the top, but it ain’t bad.

    2. Just means they have to be smart with their picks. Buehler was AF’s first pick. And he has done pretty well. A couple have seemed to not pan out, but they continue to try and build depth anyway they can. And the are using the International market better than they did a few years ago.

      1. Great observations. Thank you.

        Is baseball a lot more difficult to project than other major sports like basketball, football, and hockey? It seems so since the road to maturity takes longer (with few phenom exceptions). Which makes getting top draft picks less important. Great scouting and development seem to matter more.

  16. We’ve been lucky as Dodger Fans to have guys like Joc, Corey, Cody, and Will come up and not take to long to get acclimated at MLB level. Too soon to know on Lux, but he just have plenty of ability to put up the monster 2019 line he did. But the biggest jump in talent is from AAA to Majors. If they could get a guy like Matt Chapman, or Jose Ramirez by including Lux in a deal it would make sense for the big club. There’s always the chance a guy you trade away develops beyond expectations. Alvarez did it with Houston. O’neil Cruz might with Pittsburgh.

    LA’s farm dropped a bit in recent league ratings, but considering how many guys graduated in 2020 and succeeded in Majors, it’s not a bad thing at all. May, Gonsolin, Gonzalez and Rios showed a lot of potential, and Lux could join them.

    My guess is either Turner is re-signed or DJLM is pinched from Yankees. If Friedman is going to make a big trade it would be at the deadline.

    1. 3 years $18MM AAV. Steep price. At least they kept it down to three years. I will be very interested to see how much more effective Hendriks will be compared to Colome. ChiSox have been rumored on Hendriks for quite some time. Chicago is going to be an AL contender this year. With Giolito, Keuchel, Lynn, Cease, and Kopech, they could have the pitching to go a long way. Their bullpen should be good as well.

  18. White Sox are signing Liam Hendriks.
    3 years, $54MM with a team option for a 4th year.
    I don’t think we have to wonder why we aren’t getting him.
    That’s $18MM per year. Not bad in this Covid environment. Who’s his agent?

  20. Too rich for my blood! So far Covid hasn’t slowed down dollar amounts on these contracts! At least he’s not in the NL. Interested to see what Yates gets. Love to have him a Dodger

  21. That just pushed Hand’s price up to where I’m guessing AF will say no thanks to him also.

  22. Per Jeff Passan:

    “If the White Sox decline the option, they will be able to pay the $15 million buyout over the course of multiple years. But the incentive certainly is there for the team to pick it up. And by going that big, the White Sox get the best closer in baseball the last two seasons.”

    The deal is actually 3 years at $39MM + a $15MM guaranteed option. If the option is a buyout, the White Sox will have multiple years to pay it off.

  24. Well that was out of the blue. Wish him well in Chi-town. I think AF has a pretty good handle on who he wants and feels will bring the best value. I do not think it will push Hand’s price up any. No one would take him when it was only 10 mil. He will be lucky to get an offer of 8 or more. There is no chatter about the Dodgers at all. I find that kind of weird.

  25. Experts say Joakim Soria will eventually end up signing for 1 year at about 7 million. That is an excellent deal for a guy with his stats. He is definitely an upgrade over several of the current relievers on the roster.

    Do I think Friedman is considering signing him? I have no idea because I don’t talk to Friedman. But I hope he is.

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