At the present time, I have no clue what to expect from Kenly Jansen in 2021. 2019 was Kenly Jansen’s worst season on record, as he put up a 3.71 ERA and a 1.063 WHIP, after having four straight years with a WHIP under 1.00. At the start of the Pre-COVID-19 Spring Training, Dave Roberts discussed what to expect out of Kenley Jansen, his injury in 2019 and his working with Driveline Baseball:
Jansen had his delivery analyzed and adjusted by a data-driven assessment from Driveline Baseball, changed his winter throwing program and reported to Spring Training in great shape, ready to bounce back. Some relievers have a bad year and put up a 4.00 or even 5.00 ERA. Kenley’s worst year was a 3.71 ERA. It wasn’t that he was a train wreck – he just wasn’t his dominant self. So hope sprang eternal in 2020, but then COVID-19 hit, the players were sent home, and in mid-June, Kenley came down with COVID-19 and was late to the Second Spring Training due to the illness.
Even as he put up good numbers in July and August, he admitted that he was fatigued. Even so, in 15 innings in July and August, he has a 1.54 ERA and a WHIP well below 1.00. He looked to be back and was named the Reliever of the Month in the NL for the month of August. But then came September and October and his ERA soared to 6.52 for those months. He lost velocity and movement on his pitches, prompting him to turn to the two coaches who knew him best: Rick Honeycutt and Charlie Hough.
It turns out that his delivery was out of whack and they worked with him to lock his delivery back in. It worked to some degree… at times he looked like the old Kenley, but he did not always duplicate it. What degree fatigue in his recovery from COVID-19 played, we will never know. However, I now realize it took me 90 days to re-gain my stamina after I had the virus.
The starting and stopping of Spring Training and re-starting along with COVID-19 obviously played role in Kenley’s up-and-down season, but it’s not like he can no longer pitch or is a “soft tosser.” As was pointed out this week, BaseballSavant registered Kenley’s fastest pitch at 95.3 MPH. However, his cutter’s success is not predicated on velocity. The devil is in the details and I know that Kenley is not happy with his 2020 season when he put up a 3.33 ERA. Very few relief pitchers have consistently put up seasons like Kenley, without having a couple of down seasons.
I have no knowledge of it, but I would think that Kenley is continuing to work with Driveline Baseball, as well as with the Dodger’s’ pitching staff and will report to Spring Training in great shape. I think he is the kind of person who wants to bounce back and maybe play for another big contract.
Is He Still the Dodger’s Closer?
I am sure that Dave Roberts will downplay this, but Kenley will be given every chance to re-claim that role and I would not be the least bit surprised to see him do so. How many relievers in baseball RIGHT NOW have NEVER had a season with an ERA above 3.71? Some want Jokim Soria, but he has five seasons above that of Kenley’s worst season. Yes, I know about all the other metrics, but ERA and WHIP are still great snapshots. If they have a good ERA and WHIP, the odds are that the other stats are also in line.
Liam Hendriks has had nine years with an ERA above Kenley’s worst year. NINE! His career ERA is 4.10 and you want him because he has been great the last two years? Sometimes a player “gets it” early on and sometimes they figure it out eight years later, like with Hendriks. Just because Liam has had two great years is no guarantee he will deliver that next year.
Very few pitchers are consistent year-after-year, even the great Justin Verlander looked to be on the downhill slide with Detroit, but he quickly turned it around in Houston allegedly with few tweaks in his delivery (and maybe some special “Stick Em” – but we will talk about that later). I am not willing to throw Kenley Jansen on the scrap heap. He gets another chance with me. However, my eyes are open and if he can’t re-gain his magic then changes have to be made.
The best reliever in baseball last year was Devin Williams who had a 0.33 ERA and a 0.630 WHIP. Everyone saw that coming… right? Wrong! He was the Brewers #15 ranked prospect going into the 2020 season. Nobody saw that coming. Do the Dodgers have anyone like that in their system? Maybe… maybe not!
Some people like to look at a pitchers OPS or OB% but remember that many relievers are failed starters. Looking at historical stats means very little after a pitcher re-invents himself as a reliever. There are some candidates to do just that including Mitch White, Mike Grove, Edwin Uceta, Ryan Pepiot, and Gerardo Carrillo. Maybe one of the five breaks out. Certainly not all five, but that’s why depth is important.
Earlier in the week, I talked about the Dodgers bullpen options. Many of you disagreed with my opinion, just like you did last year, when the Dodgers ended up with one of the best bullpens in baseball! So, I will leave you with this: We will find out… and it should be fun!
Is Anyone Surprised that the Astros are Still Linked to Cheating?
Bubba Harkins was fired by the Angels last year. He was the visiting clubhouse manager and was allegedly involved in creating a concoction of pine tar and other substances so that pitchers could get a better grip on the baseball. If you remember, Trevor Bauer called out the Astros for cheating long before it was proven. In 2018, he accused Astros pitchers of illegally doctoring the baseball and made a start against Houston in which his spin rate mysteriously jumped.
Well, Bauer probably took some of that stuff too with what he did in 2020. At any rate, Harkins has sued the Angel and MLB for defamation and is naming names, including Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, both who were part of that Cheating ASStericks team in 2017! Are we surprised ? Not in the least!
BTW, marijuana is no longer a banned substance in MLB – just sayin’…
For all the vitriol, Jansen wasn’t terrible last season. He did save 11 games. I have no clue where his head is. And with the pandemic, were they even allowed to return to driveline? He gets a pass in my book because he did have Covid to deal with. I would like to see what will probably be his last season in Dodger blue be a successful one.
Is this topic going to stay open until 500 posts are made as well?
I couldn’t even get 50 for Tommy, so this one might be open until JULY 4th!
Mark, your last two posts have been great. I’ve been more than a little disturbed by what’s going on in the country this last week. LADT has been my bubble this last year, but these recent events have just punctured it. A pandemic couldn’t puncture it, but this did. I still enjoy reading, mind you, and appreciate all of the efforts you guys are making, but my mind (and heart) is elsewhere right now.
Understandable David, but won’t be addressed here.
I hope Jansen does regain his old form. We do not know the affects of COVID. I know last year he could not go back to back. We will see what happens in ST.
Now the Astros. The leadership in MLB is so screw up, they cannot do anything right. They thought they could do something to a visiting club house employee and that may be their biggest mistake. He has now filed a law suit and I hope he is so pissed that he exposes everyone. MLB will try to settle out of court and I hope the visiting club house employee says no. I would like to see the Astros finally be punished for cheating.
Schwarber to the Nats on a one-year $10 million deal. One possible landing spot for Joc has closed. Where will he land?
Some writer recently had him on Texas.
We miss you Tommy. You will not be forgotten! For me the biggest concern for me with Jansen is not his velocity but his command. Those last 2 months it was like he had no idea where his pitches were going. In his heyday he had great command. He’d throw that cutter consistently up in the zone and inside corner. Last year when you watched where the catcher was setting up and where the pitch ended up it was shocking. That’s his key for 21 especially with diminished stuff. I’m rooting for Kenley. He’s been such a great Dodger!
I like KJ. Let’s ride him hard and put him away wet. Our best postseason bullpen might not feature him.
The Dodgers PR Staff just sent me this Tribute to Tommy Lasorda:
https://ladodgers.sharefile.com/share/view/s54c3e58ba0034d9898677f74e363434f/fo5e8821-81a8-40f2-959a-92a06dcc20d5
I hope they are OK with this. THe video is exceptional.
Thx Mark. Awesome!
There’s always hope.
“Liam Hendriks……and you want him because he has been great the last two years?”
Yes.
Why?
“Sometimes a player “gets it” early on and sometimes they figure it out eight years later, like with Hendriks. “
I don’t think we get him.
Read an interesting piece on McKenzie Gore at The Athletic. Sounds like the real deal. The San Diego system has been stacked for a while, similar to what ours was a few years ago. They have the “can’t miss” prospects we once did. The Padres are indeed here. They should be exceptional for the next few years.
After reading the article I couldn’t help but wonder – who are our can’t miss prospects? I’m sure someone here can list them. We nave none in the Top 25, but, who if any might get there?
I would say that the Dodgers don’t have any “can’t miss” prospects. Can’t miss prospects are players like Beltre, Kershaw, Seager, Bellinger, Urias, Verdugo, and Andy LaRoche… oh wait! Even Buehler wasn’t because of his health… but that worked out.
I did not consider Lux a can’t miss prospect and still don’t. However, the Dodgers do have about 12-16 prospects that I could make a good case for them making it… and one or two could be stars in they align. Due to where the Dodgers draft, the types of stars the Padres have had the opportunity to draft have not been there when the Dodgers draft.
I do have high hopes for the Dodgers Top 4 prospects.
You are correct.
Gray is a pitcher and we know what can happen with those.
Ruiz is probably the closest thing we have but his ceiling might be limited.
Busch appears to have the bat, but is no sure thing.
Hoese looks legit but is unproven.
Ditto Vargas & Amaya.
Some younger guys have promise [Cartaya, Pages, J-Rod] but are a ways away.
And out of the recent pitching studs, you just hope a few make it and make it big.
Kenley has been a great Pitcher for the Dodgers but this article got me wondering if there was a bad contract out there that we could possibly swap?
The Angels need Pitching and we need a RH Thumper/ Bench piece
How about Kenley for Albert and $10m to equal the cost (kJ makes $20m in 21 and AP makes $30 in the last year of his contract)?
I know I know, but just thinking outside the box after a couple of beers.
On a serious note, there might be a team we could dance with?
Hope you are all staying safe – full lockdown here now for at least six weeks. A new variant strain of the Virus is wreaking havoc – and its 70% more transmissible than the original.
Dark days indeed…..
But at least the Vaccine is being rolled out.
Everyone over 70 plus all Medical Staff should have had it by February 15th.
My Mum had the Pfizer one yesterday – she’s 84 so things are moving slowly forward.
Man U vs. Watford starting in 40 min!!
If there is no DH, I would not want Albert. He can’t run, can’t field, and is a shadow of the hitter he used to be.
I have always been a strong advocate for a strong bullpen (since late 1950’s). However, I have also changed my tune a bit about how I think AF feels about a strong bullpen. One of AF’s largest priorities has always been to build from within. He and his draft team have concentrated on drafting pitchers with a plus fastball and a potentially plus secondary pitch for future relievers. He recognizes that he is unlikely to consistently find that top of the rotation pitcher with 3 plus pitches where the Dodgers draft. So get as many arms as possible with a plus fastball and make them high leverage late inning reliever candidates. So while I agree that is where the Dodgers are headed, I do not believe they have that closer in Mark’s group for 2021.
I like Mitch White as more of a long man/emergency starter similar to Ross Stripling. I do not believe he is a late inning guy. Maybe he could be, but it is not going to happen in 2021. The Dodgers are best served with him going back to AAA and seeing if he can resurrect his starting career. Let him go head to head with JoJo Gray at OKC. Competition is always good. If they want to see him as a high leverage/late inning reliever, then convert him at AAA and let him prove that he has the consistent swing and miss pitch on multiple consecutive days during the season.
Edwin Uceta is a 23 Year old (Happy Birthday Edwin) RH Starting Pitcher. In 76 MiLB games, 66 have been as a starter. As long as the Dodgers believe he has starter capability he is going to get to continue as a starter. He has a ceiling of a #4 starter, one the scouts think he can hold on to because “he has a good feel for pitching and does a nice job of tunneling his pitches to keep hitters off balance.” He may very well end up in the bullpen, because his fastball is only a 55, but he flashes a potential swing and miss changeup making him an effective pitcher to aggressive hitters or one time through the lineup.
Gerardo Carrillo and Ryan Pepiot are absolutely potential ML relievers. Like Uceta, Pepiot has a 55 fastball and 60 change. But what makes him a potential high leverage reliever is the continued development of his slider. Dodger coaches and instructors scrapped his curve to develop a more lethal slider. His slider could become that swing and miss pitch. It got rave reviews at USC this summer. He needs a full season to work on that pitch in a competitive environment, not an instructional environment. Carrillo is prototypical high leverage reliever candidate due to his plus fastball that gets up to 100. In short bursts, he could use that and his potential wipe out slider to dominate in the late innings. Carrillo has spent almost all of his professional career as a middling starting pitcher. Late 2019 he was converted to a reliever, and would have been on the cusp of breaking with the ML team if it were not for missing a season. If there is a prospect who could move into the bullpen by late 2021, it is Carrillo.
Michael Grove? You might as well include Morgan Cooper in this discussion. Michael Grove may someday be a good pitcher, but he has shown absolutely nothing as a professional to be considered for ML work in 2021. Potential? Sure. He has always had it. But he has not yet come back successfully from the TJ surgery. There have not been any positive results yet. Maybe 2021 is the year he gets back that potential.
Mark is correct, that the Dodgers depth is a HUGE benefit, and the Dodgers have that in abundance. But that depth needs someone to step up and have that KJ attitude in late innings now that KJ is winding down.
I’m on the sofa with my son Bobby
Lots of changes for both teams but we are not very good this year, and Ole has got your boys playing well but it’s absolutely freezing here. Well below zero – will sort the men from the boys…
Hope you’re well
Obviously we all hope KJ finds his form of the past. But that is a big ask at his age. As Mark likes to point out, closing is a fickle business. I think KJ can be a contributor in the pen but perhaps not as “the Closer” anymore. Who knows how affected his performance was in 20 due to covid. And perhaps Driveline can again have a positive effect. But his mechanics seem fragile and get easily out of sync.
Cassidy is correct stating that is a command issue. It would be nice to have his old veto as it allows more room for error but his lack of command and the lack of bite on his cutter are a fatal combo. If he’s going to throw that cutter up to MLB hitters it better be on a corner and have some movement. He had outings last year where he could not get a pitch below thigh high. Everything was in the upper 1/3. So that pitch better have big velocity, which he doesn’t have or late cutting action which it didn’t.
Idahoal mentioned that he struggles back to back days. I felt that too so I did a little research. KJ had 35 appearances. On 9 occasions he threw back to back days. 5 times he had a poor performance the 2nd day. Only once did he pitch better the 2nd day than the first. He did have a clean inning on Sept. 13 when he was motivated as hell after his worst performance of the year the day before when he gave up 6 hits, 5 runs and never got an out. Talk about an ERA killer for a reliever.
The problem is that for the past 2 seasons, he’s hard to trust as the closer in important games. Doc expresses trust but I don’t believe it’s there.
I’d like to see the closer label removed and see who comes forward or if it’s by committee (which I don’t love). That way he’s not expected to be the man. The scrutiny of his ups and downs and questions that have hung over the last 2 postseasons is eliminated. And he should never pitch on back to back days.
Maybe topics involving Dodger relief options is getting more share than some may want. Same for who is going to play 3B for LAD in 2021. But what else are Dodger fans supposed to talk about? Those two are truly the only open items on the Dodgers agenda, unless there is a blockbuster deal in the works that nobody can see coming. Bear does a fantastic job on a myriad of topics. I give as many of my spots to him as he can generate posts. He has one coming out tomorrow on Dino Ebel. If anyone else wants to take the reins and create an article not tied to relievers or 3B possibilities, I know that Mark will not turn it down.
Now back to KJ. I think that KJ had the leverage to demand a five year deal with the Dodgers because they did not have any other pitcher ready to close. AF knew 2017 was going to be a big year, and he needed that guy to come in and shut down the opposition. But I also believe that AF has learned his lesson on long term deals with relievers with both KJ and Joe Kelly. Any deal longer than 3 years for a reliever is not smart. Two years and an option (like Blake Treinen’s deal) for a reliever is probably where AF’s comfort level is. Liam Hendriks is going to get at least three years. AF is not going there. He has build a roster putting a team into the WS in three out of the last four years, winning one (that should have been two). I am comfortable leaving the roster creation to him.
Brad Hand or Trevor Rosenthal or Alex Colome on similar deals to Treinen is all AF is going to offer. For Yates I think it would be an incentive laden one year deal with a vesting option for a 2nd year, and a team option for a third year, with a minimum buyout. I will not say that Joakim Soria is not being considered, but his previous team is looking to move on from him, and they need relievers. The A’s are more likely to sign Yusmeiro Petit than Soria.
Mark stated the same thing I have said, many of today’s relievers are failed starters with bad OPS numbers as starters. So if you want to only look at career numbers rather than most recent metrics then you are not getting an accurate read on the reliever (IMO), and you will miss out on potentially great relievers. If the career OPS vs both RH and LH batters is the critical metric, then those that believe that should be all in on Kenley Jansen. KJ’s career OPS vs RHB is .502 and vs LHB is .580. Joakim Soria is .618 vs RHB and .613 vs LHB. By that metric, KJ is a far superior reliever compared to Soria.
But I recognize that KJ is not the same pitcher he was early in his career and up thru 2017. And while he may not ever be that dominant closer again, he still can be an effective pitcher. Looking into last year’s numbers a little more closely.
27 games pitched and led all of MLB with 24 games finished, including 11 saves (2 blown saves).
24.1 IP – 3.33 ERA, 1.151 WHIP; 33 K and 9 BB; 19 hits and 11 runs (9 earned). He inherited 7 runners, and none scored. Not dominant, but not a bad year.
Driving that ERA and WHIP northward, were two very bad outings.
Sept 8 vs Arizona – 1.1 IP 3 Hits, 3 Runs (2 earned)
Sept 12 vs Houston – 0.0 IP 6 hits, 5 runs (5 earned)
Eliminate those two games, and KJ’s ERA in 23 IP would have been 0.78 and a WHIP of 0.783. 9 of the 19 hits he gave up all year were in those two games. In 22 of his 27 games he did not give up a run and in 23 of his 27 games, he did not give up an earned run. It’s is hard to beat a standard when that standard is 100%.
I concur that KJ is nowhere near the pitcher he used to, and should not be relied upon to shut down the competition in the 9th inning on a routine basis. Occasionally, yes. But KJ will probably be most effective in specific situations and never on back to back days where perfection is required.
I think Knebel, Gonsolin, May, or Urias, Graterol, and Treinen will all have saves this year..
I still think close by committee could be a sabermetrics driven role. Jansen NEVER two days in a row is where it starts for me. Where we are in the lineup in the last 2 innings is another factor. Match up ours vs theirs by numbers and have at it.
I agree that the role of closer/save will be more wide open this year. However, I doubt that Urias will have any saves before September, IF (Big If) he is moved to the bullpen for the playoffs. I think young Julio proves his mettle this year in the rotation. Like you, I am a fan of Corey Knebel. I think he will surprise a lot of people. If he generates a .5 WAR in 2021, he will justify his projected arbitration salary. Don’t misinterpret my desire for a proven lockdown high leverage closer type reliever. In big games, I would feel more optimistic with Brad Hand, Trevor Rosenthal, Kirby Yates, or Alex Colome trying to shut down Tatis Jr, Machado, and Hosmer in a critical game than Dustin May or Brusdar Graterol. I can live with Blake Treinen in that role until proven otherwise and see what is available at the trade deadline. But those pitchers are available now, and may not be at the deadline.
Also do not misinterpret any of my comments on the kids. You know I am a fan of the young pitchers and position players. I just believe they need to be developed in a competitive MiLB environment. I just do not believe that players can ascend to MLB without proven success at the MiLB level, especially for an elite MLB team, like the Dodgers.
If my memory serves me well, Friedman was very reluctant to re-sign Jansen. He was part of that 3 player signing announcement. Maybe it was the years and AAV Friedman was super hesitant about but I am not sure he even wanted him back. If true, he was more right than wrong IMHO. Do I have the facts to back that up–well, facts are so yesterday.
Your memory is correct. AF was more comfortable re-signing his 3 free agents (KJ, JT, and Rich Hill) than any other team’s. I believe AF was not enamored with signing KJ to five years, but that was the going rate for a top reliever at the time. AF had to sign a closer to a 5 year deal if he wanted an elite closer for 2017. He probably never believed KJ was going to be fully effective for more than three years, but he had to sign him for five to get three. It was rumored that the Nats had offered KJ more money but also for five years. It was also rumored that KJ had multiple 5 year offers. He preferred to stay a Dodger. I doubt that the Dodgers would have been anywhere near as dominant without KJ in 2017.
Jansen is still a good reliever compared to the rest today, he’s not a Top but he’s a good one.
The problem is that we compare Jansen vs Jansen from 2017 backwards and that’s a long way off for Jansen and for any reliever today, that Jansen was a monster, one time he was the best reliever in the game or one of the best.
Padres are deep in extension discussions with Fernando Tatis, Jr. Rumored terms – 11 years $320MM ($29.1MM AAV).
where are they getting this cash???
stimulus check.
chump change
Peter O’Malley!
They do it the American way. They borrow it.
I got a 32 inch TV to use as a monitor. Now I can actually read what I am writing. Ok, some writer suggested the Dodgers should go after Steve Cishek. Odd choice to me. I also think it is about time AF addresses the big item, and gets himself a third baseman.
He’s addressing 3rd base Bear. He’s just not keeping you posted on his progress.
He was going to email you and then decided you might not be able to read the small print. Stand by for an update now that you have your larger monitor.
I knew he lost my email address. Oh well, now I will have to read about it just like the rest of the peons.
What do we think about Hernandez if he comes back?
I’d take Turner and Hernandez and run it back one more time.
Kike is not coming back. He wants a starting job. He is basically Taylor with a little more pop. If AF really wanted him back, he would already be back.
Ok
Agreed Bear. As far as a third baseman i concerned, we have 3 choices as far as I’m concerned. DJLM, Ramirez, or Suarez. I think there is already a certain date for JT to get back to AF.
With ST starting( I hope) in about 7 weeks time is starting to run out and if AF doesn’t make a move soon we’ll be on the outside looking in.
Joc has to be happy about Schwarber getting $10 million guaranteed.
I still think he wants a multi year deal. He might get it from Texas. The Cardinals seem to have cooled on him. Let me say this about Kike. I like his energy, and he brings stellar defense to the field, but he is the most frustrating hitter I have seen in a long long time. Joc is the same way. All that talent and a 10 cent head. The worse thing that ever happened to Kike in my book, was him hitting 21 homers in 2018. His first year, he hit .307, followed that up with a .190. Then his third year he hit .215. He strikes out too much for the kind of hitter he is. And his dominance against lefty’s, which kept him in the lineup, has not been there the last couple of seasons. His OBP has never been that great to begin with. His numbers against lefty’s are definitely better, close to 40 points in BA, and almost 60 in OBP, to me, that makes him one dimensional. Which is why I prefer Taylor, who even though he has less power, has better splits against right and left handed pitching. I wish Kike well where ever he lands, but his days in LA are over.
Hernandez had arguably the biggest HR of the entire postseason. He’s a hero. I don’t know why you act so sure of things you have no intelligent idea about.
A one year contract for 10 could set him up with a bigger contract with a team/city he likes better.