One of the presents I received yesterday was from my wife. She was trying to honor me with a bourbon decanter by showing my age, but somehow it looks like my obituary. So, if anything happens to me between now and January 1, 2021, suspect my wife!
But, seriously, I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas! We had 21 people at our family gathering and the food was fabulous. Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming.
Valuation of Prospects
Lots of baseball fans, including Dodger fans have favorite prospects. Quite frequently, this is just based upon something that appeals to them… maybe even their name (Joc or Yasiel, for example). Frequently, it is based upon many things that are unrelated to an analysis of a player’s skills. I know many of you feel that Alex Verdugo and Keibert Ruiz were my favorite players, but if you think that, it is simply not true.
What is true is that I believe both have exceptional-bat-to-ball skills. I have sid that Verdugo was Tony Gwynn-esque, meaning that he has a similar proclivity to hit the baseball like Gwynn. I do think he will win a batting championship or three. Keibert Ruiz also has an uncanny ability to put the bat-to-the-ball, but he’s not a sure thing like Alex.
Just like I love all my kids – I don’t have a favorite – I love prospects though I seldom have a favorite. Clayton Kershaw was pretty dang close. Many Dodger fans were high on Will Smith – I felt that he would be an excellent backup catcher, in the fashion of Steve Yeager. He was projected to hit 8 to 12 home runs. But then, the Dodgers tinkered with his launch angle and swing and he took his game to another level. So far, from what I see, Keibert Ruiz has not gotten that part down, even though he homered in his first big league at-bat. Keibert is still very young, so there is a lot of hope, but Will Smith will likely be an All-Star at times.
While I am on the subject of Will Smith, he is fast (for a catcher), athletic and a good baserunner. He also led the team is OB% last year at .401. I think it would be appropriate to move Will Smith to #2 behind Betts with Corey Seager sliding to #3 in the batting order. I would also not be afraid to move Will Smith to 2B if need be. I don’t think 3B is a good position for him, but he is an athlete and could learn it, I guess. The fact that his arm is not a weapon is what gives me pause at 3B. Of course, this would only make sense if Ruiz were ready and we have no idea if he is. A L-R platoon with Barnes would be ideal in my mind.
You never know when something just “clicks” with a player and he takes his game to the next level. .. and sometimes it never happens. With Justin Turner it happened in his late 20’s. I have looked for the some in Kike Hernandez, but it hasn’t happened – maybe it never will. I realize that blind squirrels find some nuts, but I have seen Kike Hernandez rise to the occasion too many times for it to be a fluke. The question is: can he repeat it and so far, the answer has been “NO!”
I admire the way Kike plays the game and his defensive tenacity, but it is maddening to see his potential unmet (in my opinion). Some may think this is his potential… and maybe it is. I was never high on Jeren Kendall – I thought it was a big blunder to take him and nothing I have seen says otherwise. That was a mistake by Friedman and Byrnes… I guess that they are not perfect afterall. 😉
Another Dodger prospect I am not high on is DJ Peters, who in my mind is the re-incarnation of Billy Ashley and Kyle Russell. Huge power but even huger (is that even a word?) “swing-and-miss! Unless he can fix that hole in his swing, he is a AAAA player. Again, like with all Dodger prospects, I hope I am wrong because he is a much better athlete than Ashely or Russell.
I am high on lots of other prospects. I don’t necessarily think they will be superstars, but Busch, Hoese, Miller, Pages, Vargas, and Vogel all have a skillset that I believes projects to the MLB Level. I have never been right about an entire group like this and I doubt it is any different in this case. However, those six players have something I believe can’t be taught. I also think JoJo Gray could have a high ceiling. Maybe a #3 – #5 for sure!
That brings me to Gavin Lux, whom I have been hot and cold on. I am currently cold on him. I was not impressed when he was drafted, but over a few years he improved until in 2019 he was Minor League Player of the Year. The ball flies in OKC, especially when it is juiced like in 2019. I hope he can reach that level of play in MLB, but his complex swing and his periodic “yips” causes me to not rank him highly. AC is still very high on Gavin and I hope he is right. I can only give you my opinion.
Some teams may still value Lux very highly, but I know of a couple of scouts who are not believers. How prospects are ranked is a highly subjective and often opinionated ranking system. As an example, the Nats traded Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean to the Pirates for Josh Bell. The Nats do not believe they gave up a lot to get Bell, while the Pirates believe that they got a great return. It is fun to watch these things play out.
I just know that the more prospects you trade, the better the chance you will trade away a future star, so like Andrew Friedman, I am all for hoarding prospects… except Gavin Lux. Unfortunately, his market is not all that great right about now, so he is going nowhere.
My Son Shot This Video
Not my kind of music, but it has 200,000,000 views.
Good comments Mark. I agree with your assessment of every player you mentioned (maybe that’s why I thought the comments were good).
I think Verdugo will win a batting championship although that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t have traded him for Mookie.
I have thought Kendall was a mistake from early on, although it took me a little while longer to give up on Peters. And I have never felt that Thomas would make it. I look forward to seeing how Vogel develops. He could be a very exciting player.
I also agree that if Smith is ever moved it should be to second and not third..
You think Lux’s trade value isn’t very high right now. I disagree. Maybe some of the other teams have soured on him a little but I think that if AF put the word out he was available, he would bring back some strong offers. That said, I’m totally ambivalent about his future. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him wash out in a couple of years, nor would I be surprised if he was a five time All Star. I look forward to seeing how that plays out.
I’m still very high on Gavin Lux. His overall athletic ability is outstanding, which leads me to believe that he will eventually come through. His first taste of the show wasn’t good, but wasn’t horrible either for a 21 year old. His second taste was a throw away, a ton of expectations, COVID and riots in his home town was a recipe for disaster. I think he’ll end up winning the second base job next year.
I don’t see how it makes a lot of sense to move Will Smith to the infield. It doesn’t make sense to give more ABs to Barnes. Barnes is a solid backup catcher. He’s not a starter. Keibert is basically a left handed hitter, so is Lux. I’m highly doubtful that Keibert is going to be a better hitter than Lux when all is said and done. And he isn’t as good defensively as Smith, so you would be weakening two positions by making than move. It isn’t going to happen, back away for the personal water filtration system (AKA Bong).
I love the idea of Busch, Hoese, Miller, Pages, Vargas, and Vogel. But, only Vargas has even seen High A ball so far. I’m going to wait until I see more before I jump on the bandwagon. But, I do appreciate your optimism.
I’m sad to see that empty decanter. I’m also sad to think that no one gifted you something to put in it. I gave my neighbor / baseball friend a bottle of Woodford Reserve yesterday when he stopped by unexpectedly to gift me a rash guard for the ocean. If you lived close, I would have done the same for you. I hope you had a wonderful Christmas, empty bottle and all. You still have a few more days to make it past your tombstone bottle. I’m praying for you.
That was before I put the Woodford in it. An employee gave me a bottle. Big Bottle. It all did not fit!
Nice!
I hope everyone had a great Christmas. We had a nice visit with friends, but kept it short. Ham and all the trimmings. It was more about the giving with me yesterday as I knew my friends were having some financial problems. They kept apologizing for not being able to get me anything. I told them I got my own gifts with my Dodger Championship gear. I did get a nice John Wayne thermometer, and my neighbor from downstairs got me a talking scale. Just what I need, a voice reminding me to lose weight. But all in all it was a nice day and I talked to my brother in California who was so happy with the Duke Snider 1957 Chevy die cast car I sent him. Another friend gave me some homemade brew…..white lightning….I think it was really paint remover! That stuff was NASTY. Moving on to prospects. I like to watch their progress. But telling who is going to become a solid contributor in the bigs? That is not easy. Considering the fact that such a small percentage ever make it anyway. Look at Taylor. Taylor was barely out of the minors when AF traded for him, and had shown nothing at the MLB level. One spring with new hitting coaches, a revamped swing and he hits 21 homers. You never can tell. What we do know is that the Dodgers still believe in Lux even if we do not, they are very high on Cartaya, but still think Ruiz has value. Kendall has dropped significantly. Hoese and Busch are considered very close. But only time will tell. I full season in the minors will go a long way in letting the fans and the team know how they are developing.
World Series gear. Let’s see who can match my haul…
I got the two different WS Caps and the ornament that I ordered back in October just in time for Christmas, thank you me! I got the road to the WS book. A commemorative plaque, WS Beanie, two WS T-Shirts and of course, a WS Face Mask. 1st in 32 years, I’m making it count!
Two World Series hats, 1 WS sweatshirt, 2 WS long sleeve shirts, 2 WS regular t-shirts, the WS commemorative book, 2 WS tumblers. Everybody in the family got a World Series hoodie.
Very nice!
I would be interesting to see if Will Smith would be able to put up those OBP number batting second, when he will be seeing more strikes
Only one way to find out!
Rangers win bidding for Arihara and he signs a 2 year deal. Sherman says many GM’s believe the Dodgers will end up with both LeMahieu and Bauer. Not sure how that would work.
I will never say never, but that comes as close as it can be. I do not talk to the GMs as does Joel Sherman, but I would guess that AF will not sign either Bauer or DJLM.
I agree
I didn’t get the feeling that Sherman or the GM’s he spoke with expected the Dodgers to sign both of those guys. They were just saying don’t overlook the Dodgers for one or the other of them even though other teams need those players more than they do.
I don’t expect AF to sign either of them but wouldn’t be totally shocked if he did. Both of them? That would leave me speechless.
I was not always high on Gavin Lux. As many will recall, before the draft, I was pushing for Bo Bichette. After the day of the draft, I said the Dodgers made a mistake by drafting Lux over Bichette. I still think they did, but that does not mean that Lux cannot be a solid if not All-Star 2B. I am just not quitting on a player who put together the 2019 season in AA and AAA that Gavin Lux did. He proved his ability by winning the MiLB Player of the Year in 2019. That does not always translate into a superstar, but sometimes it does. Gavin Lux is somewhere in between.
Vlad Jr. won the MiLB award in 2018, and after he was promoted, he never came out of the lineup. It took him a while for Vlad Jr. to get comfortable. No player is going to get comfortable by playing everyday and then playing in a platoon situation when getting called up to the highest level. Toronto is a different situation where they were not expected to be a contender, so they could afford to play Vlad Jr. everyday. The Dodgers had the best record in MLB when Lux got his September call up. His rookie year is a throw away, as it was for many players. How might Lux have looked if he got to play everyday as did Muncy last year. Give Lux the 2B job and let him sink or swim. If he does not do well, it will not reflect as to whether the Dodgers will make the playoffs or not. So see what you got.
As far as Jeren Kendall goes. I thought he was a mistake on draft day and I still think so. I cannot say how many times I have written that the Dodgers need to hire Brett Butler as a personal instructor for Kendall. Defensively, he would be a GG candidate in CF NOW. If he learned to bunt and slap at the ball and use his legs as a weapon, his value would escalate. But I am sorry to say, that aspect is no longer valued like it used to.
I have never been a big DJ Peters fan, but he does possess the primary aspect teams are looking for….POWER. LAD does not care about strikeouts. Give them 40 HR potential, and you will have a spot even if you approach 200 Ks.
As far as favorites, I do have them. Some are obvious, while others are obscure. Some of the obscure favorites make it to the big club, but most do not. But that does not distract me from having them as favorites.
The past nine MiLB Player of the Year:
2019 – Gavin Lux
2018 – Vlad Guerrero Jr.
2017 – Ronald Acuna
2016 – Yoan Moncada
2015 – Blake Snell
2014 – Kris Bryant
2013 – Byron Buxton
2012 – Wil Myers
2011 – Mike Trout
2010 – Jeremy Hellickson
The most inauspicious of those listed was the 2010 Player of the Year, Hellickson, and he had a 10 year career that may not be over. I thin Lux has a good shot.
You made a very good case in support of Lux Jeff.
Robert Thacker, who survived the Pearl Harbor attack and went on to serve in 3 wars died the other day at 102 years old In San Clemente Ca. Thacker was flying an unarmed B-17 when he approached Hickam Field and was surprised to see the base under attack. As he was landing his plane, the landing gear was shot out and he belly landed the plane and led his crew to a nearby swamp to escape the flames. He went on to fly 80 missions in both the Pacific and European theaters. In 1947 he made the longest non stop flight ever by a prop plane when he flew hisP-82 from Hawaii to New York City. A P-82 for those of you who have no idea was a twin fuselage Mustang. Pilot and Navigator would take turns flying the plane. Unable to jettison their wing tanks, and having the extra weight to contend with and headwinds, when they arrived in NYC, they had 30 mins of flying time left. Thacker flew B-29’s in the Korean war and B-52’s in Viet Nam. He retired a full colonel. He was awarded 2 silver stars and 3 DFC’s. RIP sir. Much respect.
Many might disagree but I think Mark has talked more about Ruiz and Verdugo than I have talked about Joc. I’m tied to Joc because I kept defending him when he was being constantly attacked. I defended Mattingly and Roberts as well when they were constantly attacked a few years back.
Duke Snider was my first Dodger favorite. He might have been the only Dodger favorite that was a star. Other favorites like Leferver, Fairly, Russell, Loney, like Joc, were never stars. I root for those that might make it big but usually do not. Although in Joc’s case, I got behind him when he was a prospect that could be the next stud center fielder. When he wasn’t, I just stayed a rooter and pushed back when others gave up on him.
I have always liked Will Smith and picked him over Ruiz due to Smith’s speed. I think Ruiz is nothing more than trade bait that is good enough to get a good return.
I’ll trade Lux for Torres any day and better yet would trade Muncy and May for Torres and play Bellinger at first, Torres at second, and Lux in CF. Still need a third baseman.
Joc has been better than either of their rookie of the year winners until Seager went nuts this season. But Joc has been better than Bellinger and many others especially win the World Series . He does step up his game. do not see him coming back, and a lot of pundits have him headed to St Louis except Bowden who seems to think he will end up with the Angels.
Huh? Are you seriously saying that Joc as been better than Cody and Corey? If so, please explain. Joc’s best year might have been better than the other’s worst year? Are you day drinking? 😉
If U would learn how to read, I said his WS stats are better. He has a .275 average with 5 homers and 9 RBI’s in 3 series. Corey passes him with his performance this year, but Bellinger has a .121 BA in 3 WS appearances with 29 K’s in 69 PA. Joc has only 15 in 44 PA’s. Corey missed the 18 WS so he has only appeared in 2. So Joc has been better than Bellinger. Also, Joc has performed better than Bellinger in all of the NLCS and NLDS series. His BA in all of those is over .263. And although he did well against Mil wand SD this year, he hit .200 against the Braves and .136 in the World Series. Not drinking a thing, those are the stats sparky.
The first sentence in a paragraph is the topic sentence. Here’s your first sentence…
“Joc has been better than either of their rookie of the year winners until Seager went nuts this season.”
You did mention the World Series in the second sentence. The third probably should have been part of the second and the next would have been clearer if you capitalized instead of omitting the first letter, “I”.
Perhaps I read just fine. I was unclear because it was so poorly written.
Good post today Mark and good conversation about players. Here are my thoughts:
* Some were sad to see Verdugo go and he’s going to be a great player for along time if he stays healthy. But Good trades benefit both sides and I think Mookie is the best player in MLB, including Trout. He does so many little things that can go unnoticed but all those things help win games. He just plays the game the right way, every day, every game.
* STB and Mark, I’m curious as to why you think Smith would be better suited to 2nd over 3rd if he moved to the infield. Is it his arm you think isn’t suited for 3rd? I see him fine there. Of course, I don’t want him moved from catcher at all, but that’s a different conversation.
* Bear you stated Taylor was barely out of the minors when AF traded for him. I don’t remember it that way. In 3 years in Seattle, he had 233 at bats. He was the everyday shortstop until he didn’t hit enough. Despite hitting .240 overall, he was fading to .170 when he was replaced by Brad Miller. His overhaul by the Dodgers resurrected his career.
* Like Mark, right now I’m not a Lux fan either. And, like Mark, I hope I’m wrong. I get that he’s 21 but I don’t love his actions at 2nd and don’t love his body language. He looks like a kid who has no fun playing the game. Maybe he’s grinding too hard to make it. But he’s a joyless player.
* Mark, you mentioned DJ Peters but what’s the near future hold for Luke Raley, Cody Thomas and Zac Reks? I think McKinstry is the next swiss army knife if Kike goes.
233 at bats in 3 years is not a huge stat. He was still very raw as a hitter with stud defensive tools. He might no have been a rookie per se, but he was far from being a MLB caliber player the same as Muncy.
While not a huge stat for you Bear, it was enough for the Mariners to move on to another shortstop.
Semantics That is not even the equivalent of a full season in the majors. Point is this, when AF traded for Taylor he had no clue what he was getting. Same with Muncy. And the Mariners got fleeced.
Peters is RH so he is going to get a longer look. He has monstrous power, and Billy Ashley may in fact be his ceiling as Mark alludes to. I think it is closer to his floor. DJ is a far better defensive OF than was Ashley. He can play CF, although he is better situated for a corner OF. He has a great arm that would be wasted in LF. But Mookie is not going to left. You do not quit on 40 HR potential, but does he have a place on the roster? He is not going to supplant Belli or Mookie, and with Pollock already established in LF, Peters does not have a place to play right now. DJ is a legit trade chit. He is 25, 5 months younger than Belli.
Cody Thomas (26) is LH corner OF. He has played as high as AA, but did not nearly establish himself as a true prospect. At Tulsa, Cody hit .236/.308/.443/.751 with 23 HRs and 144/46 K/BB ratio. This was the same year that Lux was winning MiLB Player of the Year. So those who doubt Lux’s bat skills, I am not sure how they get excited about a 3 year older corner OF. I think Dodger fans got excited due to his 2020 ST exploits. He did not establish himself as someone to watch at the secondary site. Cody Thomas is an exceptional athlete, but I do not see him as a regular in the Dodgers lineup, and based on that he was passed over twice in Rule 5 draft, I do not think he is widely expected to be more than a AAAA player.
Zach Reks and Luke Raley are really the same player. Both are LHH corner OF with good OBP and decent SLG. Raley (26) – 1,525 PA – .288/.361/.472/.833. Reks (27) – 1,040 PA – .300/.383/.469/.852. Both have played at the AAA level and played well. Neither one has Joc power, and if either could emulate OctoberJoc that would be extra special, but difficult to anticipate. On the Dodgers, both are reserve OF as their ceiling.
McKinstry is another Dodger fan favorite, and while it is anticipated that Zach will replace Kike’, he is not at the same level as Kike’ (IMO). Kike’ is an exceptional defender at multiple locations, while McKinstry is adequate. McKinstry has some pop, but not at the Kike’ level. I do think that McKinstry will have a higher batting average, but he is not a threat to hit 20 HRs as Kike’ is. Kike’ will cost millions while Zach will cost MLB minimum. Neither player is a difference maker, so salary will be a higher consideration. However, Kike’ has also been known to clutch up at times in the post season.
Thanks for the scouting report on these players Jeff. Exactly what I was looking for.
The reason I asked about this group is I read a post that suggested AF may need to trade for bench depth and I was wondering if any of these guys would make that unnecessary. Is Beaty better than any of these guys off the bench? Perhaps he’s more versatile but he doesn’t appear to me to be a very good defender anywhere. It least in the limited time I’ve seen him in the field.
Beaty’s best position is in the batter’s box!
My comment about Smith was basically based on his arm and the fact that he’s fast and athletic. Those qualities just seemed a better fit at second to me, but I agree with you that I’m in no hurry to move him off catcher. It’s just that Barnes seems to have cemented his position as the alternate catcher and if Ruiz is ready by mid season, it would be a shame not to take advantage of his hitting talent.
Other potential options would be to have Smith play some left field (he did play some outfield in college) or to see if Ruiz could get some playing time at first base and, of course, DH if that becomes a factor.
I like Smith but until he can hit the breaking ball he’s not hitting second in my lineup. And his bat plays great at catching but not at third base. Still not sure if he’s a legit top of the order bat. 2021 will tell us a lot about him but I’m leaving him at catcher. i’m also not giving up on Lux
It makes absolutely no sense to stack 2 of 3 right handed hitters at the top of the lineup. It’s also advantageous to have a left handed hitter batting second because it makes it easier for Mookie to steal.
Max Muncy had 225 ML at-bats prior to joining the Dodgers–8 less than Taylor with no stud defensive tools.
Hard to call Muncy “a MLB caliber player” before the Dodgers picked him up.
I meant to say Bulldog that Joc’s WS stats are better than Cody’s, as a matter of fact he has been a much better playoff hitter than Bellinger. But Corey’s outstanding WS got him even with Joc.
Peters can turn his back on a ball and chase it down much like Pederson. He has a good arm but I have seen his throws slice. Between Peters, Reks, Raley, and Thomas, I think Peters has by far the best chance to make the Dodgers team next year.
I am on the side that says Smith stays at catcher and that says Smith can make the deep throw from third. I like having decent speed everywhere.
Peters probably has the most power of that group but I’m going to go with a longshot and say Reks has the best shot to make the team.
They need a lefty hitter to team with Pollock. Peters hits right handed. Since any of those guys is basically going to be a fourth outfielder, he will mainly be used for pinch hitting purposes. You don’t want a guy like Peters who strikes out way too often to be pinch hitting a lot.
Peters has a great work ethic and I really hope they can find a way to cut down his strike outs, but I don’t see that happening any time soon.
I’m no expert or scout. I took notice of Will Smith when he was in AA ball when he put up .264/.358/.532/.890 numbers. I never looked back on him/never lost faith in him/I predicted he would make it to the big league and stick.
I don’t understand some of you that have always talked about moving Seager to a different position, want Bellinger at 1B even though Bellinger is fantastic in CF and this is coming from me, someone that doesn’t put a high priority in defense, but I see Bellinger in CF as a valuable asset. And now you are talking about moving Will Smith to another position. I watched a video of him talking about how much effort he put into becoming a good catcher. I’m keeping him at catcher.
I prefer Smith in the 3 spot in the lineup. Good OBP and good SLG. If he doesn’t get his pitch to drive, he takes the walk and passes the baton to the next guy.
A hard working great overall guy. Probably my favorite Dodger.
I really liked Verdugo as well and his departure (as well as Hill’s) was about the only bittersweet part of last year. Ruiz, is probably my new pet cat. I love hitters who spray and believe the Dodgers need more of them. It doesn’t get talked about much, but I was pretty encouraged with his short stint. I’d love to see him punish teams for shifting on him.
I don’t know about Lux. Seems a rhythm hitter or, worse, a streak hitter. Seager is a rhythm hitter and he puts in all sorts of prep to ensure he stays in rhythm. If Lux shows a work ethic similar to Seager, then I’ll be a little higher on him. We’ll probably have to suffer through a full season of lumps and growing pains to truly find out. Will the Dodgers allow that? They’re a patient club, but their success doesn’t depend on Lux developing the way it would on a would-be ascending team. I’m not too invested in him as a fan. He works out – great. He doesn’t, well, we’re having a pretty good run of top prospects working out, can’t win them all.
Again, I will say that I hope Gavin Lux is all that…
I just no longer see it!
While I agree the Belli is great in CF, he is also great at 1B and gets more opportunities at 1B.
It would be great to have Cody at 1B where he is an unquestioned Gold Glover However, the Dodgers need a CF’er and there is no one on the team The next man up is Jake Vogel and he is 3 years away.
Prediction: Cody stays in CF until he is 29
I am not advocating moving Smith to another position, just for the sake of moving him.
It would only work if Ruiz is ready… and I mean BIG TIME ready.