Wednesday the Dodgers announced “layoffs across the organization.” Right about now, I do not know who has been laid off. I would be surprised if this included anyone in player development and the baseball ops side of things… but you never know. Allegedly, the Dodgers have lost over $100 Million in 2020. If you are on the side of labor, you might say that is way overinflated and if you are on the side of ownership you might say that is just the tip of the iceberg.
I have no clue, but unless you have ever ran you own company, you may not either. I am going to tell you a real life story that may shed some relevance on the current situation.
Here’s the Story
As you may or may not know, my wife and I own US Water Systems. In 2014, one of our competitors tried to buy us. I ignored them until the 4th offer (they call it a Letter of Intent or LOI) , which I could not turn down. I demanded they put up $150,000 cash because were were baring our soul and finances. In 2014, we were about 1/3 the size we are now, but the deal seemed great… at the time.
LONG STORY SHORT: Their intent was to steal all of our intellectual property and eliminate us as a competitor. Because we were going to consolidate our accounting and purchasing departments, I found jobs for our CFO (he’s now the Director of Finance at Indiana University) and our Controller (I got her a job with a friend who runs a non-profit… and she is still there).
We also lost our Operations Manager as he wanted no part of the merger. Well, at the eleventh hour, they tried to change the terms and I told them politely to get screwed. I walked away and we were really in bad financial shape. We lost our Controller, CFO and VP of Operations who were system administrators of new software we had just installed, and it was a disaster! My tax return shows that we lost $496,000.00 that year. However, I was forced to borrow $800,000.00, and since we were in bad financial shape, we had to pay “loan shark interest.” In 18 months we paid back $1.400,000.00!
I am not sure how we did it… but we did! The point is: my tax return said I lost $496,00.00… but I had to play $1,400,000.00 back. Don’t feel sorry for me, It all worked out. We now have no debt and I can look back and laugh at it now. I also kept the $150,000.00. They told me I had to give it back and I replied: “Let’s have a Judge decide!” I ended up hiring two of their key employees and life is good. So, when Stan Kasten says the Dodgers lost more than $100,000,000.00, it may or may not be what their tax return says, but it’s lot.
So, in light of the pandemic and the organizational layoffs, it will not be business as usual this winter. To go out and spend lavishly on free agents would be a slap in the face to the laid off employees.
If I had to bet, I would say that the lineup we saw last year will be pretty much the same in 2021. It’s fun to think about trades and signing free agents, but its mostly fiction. Lindor isn’t coming to LA. DJLM is too old, too expensive and costs prospects… or at least one. Chris Bryant has been on a downward spiral. Josh Hader could be damaged goods and is way too expensive.
All of the Dodger’s Free Agents could be back, none of the Free Agents could be back, or some of the Free Agents could be back. Who really knows? McGee, Baez, Wood, Turner, Kike, and Pederson may find a very lukewarm market. I would think Treinen gets some offers, but you never know. Some may even come back on one-year deals.
I would not be surprised is Justin Turner comes back on a one-year deal that is is the range of $6 million. Hernandez, Pederson and Wood will not get what they received in 2020. The union is going to cry “collusion” but most teams understand that it will be around June before they put butts in seats.
As I write this, Pfizer is seeking emergency authorization to distribute their vaccine ASAP. Once the company files, it would be up to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to decide whether the two-shot vaccine works safely enough to roll out to millions of people. I believe that since it is based upon Messenger RNA technology and the likelihood of side effects is very low that it will be approved in under two weeks! I believe that this is a National Emergency and damage done by lockdowns could exceed the death toll of the disease.
Today the Wall Street Journal reported:
“Given the urgency, the FDA is expected to move quickly. The timing of the filing is in line with industry and government officials’ projections for authorization and distribution to begin next month. Pfizer said the filing could allow for distribution to begin by the middle to end of December.
A green light would cap the fastest vaccine development program ever in the West, going from laboratory to authorization in less than a year. Pfizer, which partnered with Germany’s BioNTech in March, has so far spent about $2 billion on the effort.
Then companies, health authorities and physicians would face more daunting tasks: making enough shots to meet demand, distributing them and convincing people to take them.
Health authorities say vaccines, and the protection they provide if enough people receive injections, will be key to allowing people to return to schools, workplaces and other establishments.“
The vaccines are critical to resuming a normal life, which includes baseball. I would not be surprised if Spring Training were pushed back to the middle to end of April… but I do believe that we will see baseball with fans in the seats THIS season. In the meantime, this baseball labor situation is going to get real UGLY!
I agree that it wouldn’t make sense to layoff a $100,000 a yr employee and then sign a $20,000,000 employee/player. How would you justify laying off those employees because you don’t have the money yet have the money to sign free agents?
Considering that they might not want to spend any extra money and sign no one, then the most glaring need for this team is closer/closer by committee. If none of those relievers came back then the late inning options become Urias and Gonsolin?
MT… Thank you for sharing that!!!
OK, it must be time for Dodger Baseball…
Keep JT – Lux at 2B – Pitching is solid… Let the games begin…
P.S. MT could you expand on this a little…
“I believe that this is a National Emergency and damage done by lockdowns could exceed the death toll of the disease.”
PJ,
Kids not learning and advancing socially.
Drug abuse
Depression, suicide
Loss of income and loss of families
Delayed Doctors visits which leads to increase in undetected diseases.
To name but a few…
Some mental health experts predict a “pandemic of mental health issues” because humans are social and when that need is not met, many people breakdown.
These are all issues that are being exacerbated by the pandemic. They’ll still be issues after the population hits a critical mass of vaccinated people. Covid is giving the world a look “under the hood” of how we treat each other in this country. We want life to “get back to normal”, but normal for some people is still suffering from all the afflictions you mention.
Weighing exacerbated social issues against the pandemic is apples and oranges. In this case, it’s the possibility of death and suffering by disease, vs death and suffering by poor social infrastructure. Both are awful. Both act like catalysts to make the other worse. Covid is a pandemic, that can hopefully be fixed with vaccines and public health initiatives. Everything else has, is and will still be a lot of serious problems after the pandemic. Hopefully we can tackle them once we get closer to “normal”. I’m sure some (maybe a lot) of people will call it socialism. But paying a bit of taxes to help provide a safety net for neighbors sounds like Christian benevolence to me. The government isn’t always the best way to administer such a safety net, but charities alone can’t do it.
Well put. Thank you Drew.
The first casualty seems to be Ogden as the Dodgers are cutting ties with that team. Others are already restructuring their teams. The Nats cut ties with Fresno and their new AAA affiliate is Rochester NY. There is also a rumor out there that LA will drop Great Lakes. I did not expect any major free agent signings anyway. I really feel for you guys in states that are locking down. That is not happening here.
Morosi on Twitter saying the Dodgers have a serious interest in trading for Arenado. And it seems this is not just a rumor. Time will tell. With 77 mil coming off of the books after 21 and no guarantees you can re-sign Seager, it makes some sense. And most likely Nolan would push the opt out clause back.
One firing/hiring has nothing to do with the other. It would make perfect sense to layoff a $100K employee if it was determined that their services weren’t really necessary. This is a baseball team. Fans pay money to watch a team that tries to have to best players, not the best front office staff. Who’s more valuable to the Dodgers, a $100K office worker or a player truly worth $20M? Of course, it’s the player. I think this year off season is going to allow the Dodgers to find some incredible one year values. And, because of their financial strength can take advantage of the situation if they want. I would think they are going to be several excellent relievers available on one year contracts. This would work out well for the Dodgers. It will allow some of the prospects AF has drafted recently to develop and , hopefully, be ready for 2022.
What will be a realistic package for Arenado? Assuming he cancels his opt out clause.
I think a lot of it depends on how much cash Colorado will be kicking in to offset Arrenado’s contract.
Lux, May, Thomas… to start!
There is an excellent analysis of what an Arenado trade might look like at Fansided. Ryan Sanders wrote it, but it was written a while back. Things are of course a bit different now, but I think his take on it is still somewhat valid. He did say the teams willing and able to take on that contract are slim, the Dodgers being one of them, but they won’t likely be involved. The fact is we don’t need Arenado, or, more aptly put, he needs us more than we need him. If he opts out we could be players, but Friedman isn’t going to send a package including May and Lux.
As for what to do regarding the pandemic, the models for how to deal with it are there, they’ve been there for months, we didn’t follow them and, as one expert in the field so eloquently put it “we’re f*****”.
I would have to agree with all of that. Nolan wants to be on a winner badly. Morosi is looking at it from the point of view that LA might now be able to resign Seager and his offense would replace some of Seager’s production and with all of the SS available in free agency after 21, well it might make sense. If they do or do not, I am not going to lose sleep over it. I also think that any package Colorado might get would be watered down some since Arenado has the opt out clause. And I do not think he waives that clause for many teams.
Here’s the article I referenced
https://calltothepen.com/2020/01/02/colorado-rockies-what-would-a-trade-for-nolan-arenado-look-like/
It was written 10 months ago but the argument FOR doing it is a good one. Provided he stays on the field for most of the remaining years on that deal he should put up enough WAR to earn the money. Should is the operative word in all of this. The thing is, if the Dodgers focus on signing their own young stars, and we all know who they are, they won’t need Arenado. If Seager leaves and we don’t acquire Lindor, that dynamic might change. Who knows what the future holds, and trying to guess what Friedman has in mind is next to impossible, but it’s what we do here.
Lux maybe, and for sure someone like May, but with him having the opt out, they are going to have to temper what they think they can get with the reality that they get nothing if he opts out except salary relief. Which they might prefer. I doubt they want Thomas. They are considering non tendering Dahl.
No way would it cost that much. Mookie got a weaker return than Lux, May and Thomas. Here you go Mark…
Ruiz, White and Rios or Muncy as Muncy and Rios become very redundant. (This would be an overpay IMO compared to Verdugo, Downs and Wong with Price coming back with half his salary paid).
Mookie RF
Seager SS
Arrenado 3B
Bellinger CF
Smith C
Muncy / Rios 1B
Pollock LF
Lux 2B
This is a win/win for both teams. Muncy/Rios provides the power they lose with Arrenado. They get a good arm and a good catcher, all of them MLB ready.
Muncy is 30. I would think they would take the younger guy since Rios can also play 3rd. But I think they would take a package close to that. Deadline for adding guys to protect them from the rule 5 is tonight. Dodgers have 7 open spots on the roster, I do not think they protect more than 4 guys.
Muncy would hit 45 home runs in Colorado. I’m ok with him going but not Lux or May. Again, I don’t see the Dodgers in a trade with Colorado. The Rockies are going to look outside the Division first. Way outside the Division would be their preference. New York or Atlanta maybe.
Muncy is also cost controlled for a couple of years and their main 1st baseman sucked last year. They also have 3 top 10 organizational prospects that play 3rd base.
A trade that helps protect 4 and trades 3 for Arenado would have to happen soon to beat the deadline.
And the Angels will steal him from the Dodgers by trading Trout for Arenado.
A very good and thought-provoking article, Mark. You have an excellent way of describing things that even I can understand. Thank you. Hope the Dodgers can get the players they may need and still save some money for Corey, Buehler and Cody. Do not want to see Ogden and Great Lakes not have a team in the Dodger Minor League system next year. Big loss for baseball in my opinion.
The minors are as much of a casualty of the pandemic as anything else. And MLB is taking control of the minors and they want to downsize. Some teams will probably join independent leagues. They are not caring which fan bases are affected. They just want to streamline the system. Just think of where they are now, and where they were in the 40’s. The Cardinals under Rickey has more than 800 players in their system alone. Part of the downsizing is supposed to allow them to upgrade things like the pay they get. Minimize transportation costs and such. All the Cal league and Florida State league teams are fairly close to each other. I feel bad for the fans in those city’s. But we all can understand the belt tightening. Even Guggenheim has to be feeling the pinch of lost revenues, and though the owners are pretty rich guys, they want a return on their investment.
Wow… I’m going to miss Ogden!! Great people, damn good baseball…
Utah happens to be one of the best kept secrets of the West… Absolutely beautiful scenery all around… Great for a road trip…
Any trade with May included hurts… I really think we got something for the future in him… I suppose If they can talk Boras into it and then he sort of dances around the idea to Seager!!!
Mark thanks for the clarification!!! I had a feeling…
Never been to a game there. There is a rumor that one of the teams might be in Spokane again. But everything is so muddled and up in the air at this point. Some moron on Twitter made the dumbest trade idea ever. Not that it would be a bad trade for LA, but no way the other team would even consider it. He suggest we trade with the Braves for Soroyka, Fried, and Acuna, and the Braves would only want Gonsolin in return. That guy is definitely smoking the WACKY WEED. ,,,,A friend of mine got a card from her friend and this is what it says. Thanksgiving, because nothing says gratitude like a dead bird with bread in it’s butt.
That’s hilarious Bear. I will be sending that to my vegetarian friends.
An excellent return for Gonsolin. I give that trade my approval. And whatever that guy is smoking, I want some. In gummie form. I don’t smoke.
Cheeba chews are my fave, Badger. Nice buzz, and great taste
Hey Bobby, you got today’s lineups yet?
Here you go, based on the combined wishes of this board:
Mookie
Lindor
Seager
Arrenado
Belly
JT (DH)
Muncy
Smith
Joc
Trevor Bauer pitching
Make it so Cheeba.. I mean Bobby
And they now come in a raisin flavor.
I don’t get the infatuation with Arenado. He’s been a star, and will probably be a star for a few seasons more. But there’s no guarantee he’d play as well in LA as he did in CO. And it’s a massive risk to assume that contract. If he performs up to expectations, he could walk. If he gets hurt or declines, LA would be on the hook for a boatload that could have been allocated to trying to lock up the home grown stars. Mookie was the rare exception of LA trading for someone and getting what they expected.
I’d say sign Kim from South Korea. He’s younger than Arenado. He’ll be cheaper, he’s more versatile. And I’d bet the risk of underperformance is about the same as it is for Arenado. If Seager walks Kim could play short. Or 3rd if Lux proves up. Or 2nd if they keep Seager. Many more options, with similar performance risk, at a lot less risk financially.
Nolan Arenado is a very good player, a fantastic fielder, and a would love to see him be a Dodger. But I would not give up even one significant prospect to trade for him given his contract. He is guaranteed $35 million per year with a full no trade clause and an opt out in one year. He is under contract until age 35, had a bad year in 2020, and is overcoming an injury. If Nolan really wants to be a Dodger he can opt out next year and negotiate directly with them, and the Dodgers do not have to give up prospects.
Morosi made it sound like Dodgers are interested in Arenado since it will be difficult to sign Seager given his agent is Boras. If Dodgers have to make a choice between paying Arenado or Seager, I would choose Seager right now.
The Dodgers want a RH bat and have a vacancy at 3rd. To me this has little to do with Seager. Bowden predicted Arenado a Dodger by XMas.
Not sure how I feel about this. I would just pay JT for a couple years than take on all that money. Colorado would have to buy down that contract. No way I’m taking all of that with the economic uncertainties.
Therein lies the conundrum RC. Arenado would no doubt waive his opt out to come to LA with a chance at winning. And they have a TON of salary coming off of the books after next season. His no trade does not include the Dodgers. He is a So Cal boy and would love to play here. What would you get? Superior defense at 3rd, and based on his 162 game projections, a .275 hitter with 30 plus homers and 100 ribbies. The only hit money wise is this season, and it would limit their ability to sign relief help unless some salary heads the other way. He immediately joins Betts as a major run producer. He had a bad year in 2020, but many stars did. He has avoided the IL for most of his career. He is 5 years younger than JT. And there are 5 years left on his deal. Makes sense to me depending on what they could send back. Now, maybe the Rockies do not want to trade him to another team in the same division and the worst feedback would be from the Rockies fans who are pretty fed up with losing. I see the upside as well as the down. But I also believe none of the free agents out there, and especially a trade for Bryant, who has also been a topic of discussion on here, have anywhere near the skills he brings to the team.To tell the truth they could afford to go over the cap for one year since there would not be a penalty since they have been below it for a few seasons.
100% Agree
No way Arenado is worth 35 Mil a year now and going forward. Much less giving up some of our top prospects. That would be an Arte Moreno move! A franchise killer! No way AF is doing that!
Arenado is being paid like a star third baseman along the lines of Manny Machado and Anthony Rendon. Below are average salaries and age of their final year.
Ave Salary
Arenado 32.5M, 35
Machado 30M, 35
Rendon 35M, 36
As you can see, it’s not quite an Arte deal since Rendon will be the oldest and the highest paid of the three. Judging by these numbers, Arenado looks like the going rate. You can make arguments about each of them as to who is the best of the 3.
The Dodgers and AF have been linked to Arrenado for several years. BTW – Mookie is signed through his age 39 at 30M.
The Arenado fascination is about Wins, and his 5.5 WAR per year that is assumed. That makes him worth his contract.
But I don’t believe that really is in question, the question is who will end up paying it. We have 2 third basemen now (assuming Turner re-ups) and another one on the way. What I would like to see this winter is more pitching. Always, more pitching. If we are going to spend future money, which of course is fine by me, I say extend those who brought home a championship
100% agree!
These truths I hold to be self-evident:
1. All Ballparks are not created equal and Coors was created for Nolan, however if he comes to LA, Arenado will be a Gold Glove 3B who will hit 7th or 8th.
2. Nolan will not opt out of a $199 Million Dollar Deal.
3. I would not give up more than Ruiz and Thomas for him.
4. He will never be a Dodger – Friedman is just going to make sure whoever gets him (if he is traded) has to pay through the nose.
1. I think Arenado would love playing for the Dodgers. It would motivate him. A happy Arenado could easily average 5 WAR for 5 more years.
2. I tend to agree, but I think it’s possible he does opt out and negotiate another deal similar to Rendon’s. I give it 50/50. Dodgers? See 4.
3. That works for me. Maybe another A level player just to make it read better.
4. I tend to agree with that too. But I do think it would be a lot fun to have him here.
Quote from Andrew Friedman…
I think what’s awesome was going through this and winning it all but, days after, just the text threads with coaches and various front office, the mindset was “let’s be pigs”, let’s do everything we can to go out next year and do it again. And so we switched gears pretty quickly and hopefully we’ll get a chance to really blow off some steam and celebrate the 2020 season. But right now, we’re kinda all focused towards doing all we can to put the best team together for 2021.
Why in earth would Seager want to leave L.A.??? We love him here…
Scott B. too??? A lil 1 hour limo ride to the stadium… Couple of beers and checking on Mr. Seager, JT, Joc and others(?)
With me, getting to know and see these Dodger kids from many trips to Rancho C. kills me to hear their names rumored daily… Oh well, that sounds like a personal problem and big business… My runs to Philipes for a beef dip and taking the bus up to Blue Heaven for a game has slowly diminished over the years becuz of cost… I got the dough, but as you know these annual player signings cost me the fan a lot… OK no more whining…
Are the Blue on this S. Korean kid’s list of tryouts yet???
Just when you think you know stuff about the Blue the postings on LADT take you to school… I copy them all for reading in between my PT adventures…
I finally felt a lil chink in the armor from Covid this week… I’m going to forgoe my semi annual trip to Oregon and Washington for Thanksgiving to see the kids and it hurts… Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday… Christmas with all it’s advertising in full swing has lost its appeal to me… Thanksgiving, a great meal with family and friends, friendly chatter with no politics and no pressure on gift giving, some good football… Last but not least, that day after turkey sandwich on wheat, lil mayo, salt n pepper, turkey, dressing, cranberry and a large bib which watching some great college football….
That being said, Happy Thanksgiving to all the LADT folks and be safe….
Back at you Peterj
Just for arguments sake I will offer up a reason why Seager would leave.
Corey is from North Carolina and grew up a Yankees fan. He idolized Derek Jeter. He’s won a championship for LA, so, wouldn’t it be impressive to go do the same thing for his favorite team?
Glad to hear your choice to stay home Peter. It’s just for one year. We will throw a rope around this thing by mid summer.
Your Thanksgivings were better than mine Peter. Friendly chatter? Never got that. Always an argument or two. Of course that was not my real family. I left them when I was 10. But when I was married it was just me, the wife and kids and once in a while a couple of my Army friends who liked her cooking better than what they got in the mess hall. She was a great cook.
I like the thought of Arenado playing third for the Dodgers but I would prefer Seager at third and Lindor at short for the next 8 years.
Don’t forget Joc in left. I hear he wants a 10 year deal but I bet he’d settle for 8.
Joctober could return to Dodger Stadium in the post-season wearing a different uniform.
Me too Bum.
And I’d give Joc 8 years.
I re-read the Jon Paul Morosi piece on the Dodgers interest in Nolan Arenado (three times now), and it makes less sense each time I read it. I do not necessarily disagree with his statement, “But it’s overly simplistic to characterize this as a choice between Arenado and Turner or Bryant. From the Dodgers’ perspective, the better comparison is between Arenado and Corey Seager.” I think that is the comparison that needs to be made. Do the Dodgers want Nolan Arenado more than Corey Seager? They cannot afford both next year and still have resources for Belli, Urias, and Buehler. I know there are those that believe that the Dodgers have a bottomless budget and can afford any player they want. $300MM budget? So what? After all WE FANS deserve it.
Morosi then asks: “So can the Dodgers fit Arenado into Andrew Friedman’s future payroll projection? Yes.” He then notes that $70MM comes off the books without Kershaw, KJ, Seager, and CT3. Arenado takes up half of that. That means $35MM for Kershaw, Seager, and replacements for KJ and CT3. Again for those that want a $300MM budget that should not pose a problem. But for realists, IT AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN!!!.
Morosi brings up Scott Boras and the difficulty in getting an extension. How does he know how hard either party has worked to get it done? Forget about how difficult it is to work with Scott Boras. I dismiss the concept they cannot work with Boras. He is an a**, but his clients will sign, and undoubtedly for above market prices. There is a price that both parties can agree on, and it will of course will be high (and perhaps unreasonable). If they cannot work with Boras on Seager then go ahead and trade Belli and Urias while they have great value and not before they become rentals. The trade will yield more than whatever they get from a draft pick.
If Boras is that hard to work with, then trade Seager to Cleveland for Lindor and agree to pay whatever Seager arbitration salary is, and another Cleveland prospect(s) for the money. Lindor, without Boras, should be easier to negotiate with. Of course that will go over so well with the fan base.
ALL RUBBISH!!! – Forget Arenado! Sign JT, put Lux at 2B, and if you have to wait until Seager becomes a FA to re-sign him, so be it. Then negotiate with Lindor and Story along with Seager. So if it is fear of losing Seager because of Boras, as a means for justifying Arenado, I dismiss it totally. Regardless if Seager signs or does not sign, the Dodgers are going to spend large dollars on a SS.
JP Morosi is one of the nicest guys in all of sports media, and he speaks a million different languages, all fluently. That said, his record for accuracy on these things is just barely north of Nightengale’s.
If the Dodgers are exploring a trade for Arenado, my guess is that they’re going to have to get a great deal. Otherwise, as has been mentioned above, AF is satisfied to just bump the price up for someone else.
If Boras is smart (and we know he is) and Corey wants to stay here, they need to get an extension done this winter. How could Seager possibly have a better season than he had this year. He is now at prime value and he doesn’t have AF negotiating with Lindor, Baez and Story at the same time.
Although in principle I agree with everything Jeff just said there, I’m not gonna forget Arenado until he finds a place to play. Obviously the Dodgers can’t have everyone but they should give due process to those stars who actually want to play here. I believe if they want to they can make it work. I don’t know how serious they might actually be. It makes good headlines, and that certainly counts.
The Dodgers have 32 currently on the 40 man roster. If they are to protect any of the Rule 5 eligible, they need to protect them this afternoon. The team has 44 players who are Rule 5 eligible, including 25 1st year eligible. Most of the names, are not recognizable by most fans. Of the group, I believe that Omar Estevez will absolutely be protected. I also believe that Brett de Geus will be protected. The Dodgers have room and Andre Jackson and Gerardo Carrillo who are still considered starting pitchers, and SP are protected far more readily than relievers. Outside of de Geus, I do not believe any other reliever will be protected, including Marshall Kasowski. Kasowski is a quality pitcher, but needs another pitch to stick with a MLB team a full season. If he does, good for him. The Dodgers have more than plenty of MiLB relievers to pull from.
I do not think that Zach Reks or Cody Thomas will be protected. Reks is 27, not the age the majority of teams will draft. Cody Thomas? He was left unprotected last year, and because there was no MiLB, I doubt that any team can feel comfortable with a 26.1 year old OF who has not played above AA, and even that was not a very productive year (.236/.308/.443/.751). How many teams are going to draft a corner OF AA player with a .751 OPS who will be 26 ½ when the season starts.
Early reports from Plunkett were that neither Estevez nor DeGeus were protected. Only adds to 40 man were reportedly Carillo, Andre Jackson, Reks and Uceta.
4 spots open: Turner, two relievers & an SP.
This could be nothing more than Andrew Friedman doing his due diligence on a potential exploitable opportunity. The Rockies are in a bad spot with Nolan Arenado. He is unhappy in Colorado and their options are either a) retain him and risk losing him after the 2021 season if he decides to opt out, b) invest an additional $164M on an unhappy player over an additional five seasons if he does not to opt out, or c) trade him in order to gain some much needed salary relief, while bolstering their minor league system in the process. This has the potential of becoming a public relations debacle for the Rockies, but they have no one to blame but themselves.
Dodger brass obviously understands the situation and is perhaps merely looking to find ways to buy low on one of the top right handed hitters in the league.
As it has been previously stated, the Dodgers don’t necessarily need Arenado, but the Rockies definitely need the Dodgers to be engaged if they intend to trade Arenado. Especially, considering Arenado’s no trade clause and the fact that not too many teams have the financial resources and prospect capital to potentially acquire an expensive player like Nolan Arenado.
Just read that the Quakes might be a low A Minor League team not a high A Minor league team next year. What does this mean? Will they still be part of the Dodgers? Lots of good players on the team. Some of them advanced to the big team this year. Do you have any info on this, AC?Thanks.
The Quakes will stay in the California League, and the California League is going to full season A and not A+. The League is dropping down a level, and the Quakes go with it. They will be replacing Great Lakes as the Dodgers full season A team (or low A as some call it).
Ok, thanks AC. Glad to hear they are still with us and hope it works out for the players to drop down a level. Do you think all the players will stay with the team if they have a choice? Won’t it be a drop in competition for them?
That will depend on how the Dodgers feel their development is going. Some A plus guys will probably get the bump to AA. Since so many players have been dropped from rosters, and there will only be 4 teams, some will stay at low A. Some will be assigned to the new high A team, I am hearing Spokane, and then the most advanced will go to Tulsa and OKC.
Still don’t see Arenado happening even though Jim Bowden says it’s serious and could happen before Christmas. Lot of smoke, rumors picking up steam, but is still feels like a reach. Maybe the Rockies have financial issues, need to deal him or maybe they just want to move in a different direction and need to move a player who no longer wants to be in Denver. We’ll see. Perhaps the Dodgers want a longer term fix at third than Turner offers. Maybe the Dodgers see an opportunity and intend to exploit it. No surprise there. LA certainly has some desirable trade pieces. Really believe the Dodgers will extend Corey Seager.
He is pushing their buttons, and his opt out after next year is hanging over their heads. Also Story becomes a free agent after next season. It is obvious to them that the team as presently constructed is not winning any time soon. So if they can get out from under Arenado’s deal and get some solid prospects from whomever they trade with, it will make the organization better. Turner would be a 2 year fix at best. He will be 36. Arenado is an upgrade.
Arenado is not going to be a Dodger. I agree with Jeff. Give the money to Seager, Beuhler, Bellinger and Urias. Of those 4, Bellinger is the one I could see leaving. He needs to make adjustments next year, and I am not sure he will. He could be such a great player if he would choke up on the bat like Seager.
Not his game Al. And he does not to be a high average guy. If he hits in the 270’s with his power, he can do a lot of damage. And He makes adjustments all the time. One of the problems seems to be he tinkers too much. He had a good year bad year a good year and a bad year. In 2021 he is due for the good. And he is younger than Seager and a better defender than any player on the team save Mookie. I think he will be fine. And I am not so sure they can extend Seager or would considering no one knows if fans are going to be in the seats or not.
What do I know? I wanted the Dodgers to sign Harper, Machado, Cole and just about everyone else. I never try to make assumptions on what the Dodgers will spend. But, what I do know are some facts…
AF wants a RH bat preferably a third baseman.
The Collective Bargaining Agreement runs out after this coming season.
Our Payroll last year was in between 210-220M prorated for the shortened season.
Our Payroll max under this ownership was around 278M
We have the best, or close to the best TV revenue.
This tells me that you can’t assume that AF is operating under the assumption that payroll limits will be the same as they are now. Therefore, you can’t make an assumption that payroll can’t increase significantly.
AF wants to be a pig and add talent to this team – these are his own words.
Arrenado and Bryant are better than JT. Both would improve the team. No Mark, Nolan would not bat 7th on this team and DJLM broke the can’t hit away from Coors theory.
If Nolan were on the team today and I had to choose two position players to offer contracts to out of Belli, Seager and Nolan, one would be Nolan. Because we have too may left handed bats!
If I had to make a choice of having to let one of Kershaw, Belli, Seager go when their contract is up, it would be Kershaw. He’s the oldest and hasn’t cracked 180 innings in 5 years!
Maybe there’s room to have 6 $30 Mil players on the same team by the time Bueller is a free agent. You won’t know until the next CBA is defined.
What kind of offers do Seaver and Kershaw get next year!There is 5 or 6 top shortstop FA next year,will that bring Seagers money down?Kershaw as awesome as he is,is going to be in his mid 30 s ,what will teams think he is worth.He has to remain Dodger blue.
I’ve been away from baseball talk since the World Series ended. I hope everybody is doing good and celebrating the Dodgers as World Series champs.
I’ve got a question, does anybody know if the three batter minimum rule is sticking around for 2021?
If that rule is sticking around Friedman needs to clean up or clean house the bullpen.
I’ve got four free agent relievers that I’m looking at that I hope Friedman looks at to try to acquire.
Roberto Osuna
Sean Doolittle
Ken Giles
Joakim Soria I’m not totally sold on Joakim Soria because of his age of 36 but he’s got great stats against both sides of the plate.
And then sign Justin Turner. I know he’s up there in age but he’s still good.
The Dodgers could also use someone that can play 2B and or LF. In case Gavin Lux doesn’t work out. With the DH the Dodgers have the luxury of acquiring somebody and not block Gavin Lux. That is if the DH is sticking around for 2021.
Giles had TJ las month Eric, so if you’re counting on him for next season, I suggest you remove him from your list.
Doolittle has had a very good career but has not pitched well for the last two seasons. Not sure how much help he would be.
Osuna has that domestic violence arrest in his past, so not sure AF would want to add him to the clubhouse mix.
There are lots of relievers out there plus more will be added at the non-tender date in early December. Andrew will lots of guys to choose from.
Thanks for the info on Giles I didn’t know that.
I also didn’t know about Osuna’s arrest.
I saw those Doolittle stats but I think he will bounce back and has some years left in him.
We currently have several relievers that have lopsided splits and with that three batter minimum rule we need to replace those guys with others that can consistently get outs on both sides of the plate. Those relievers don’t grow on trees. So when any are available you need to go get them.
There are better relievers than those guys Eric. Kendricks, May, and the list is long. The 3 batter rule is here to stay as is the 26 man roster, no trades after July 31. and only 28 players on the roster in September. Up in the air are expanded playoffs, and the universal DH. MLB wants the playoffs more than the players do, but the players want the DH more than MLB does, so they are negotiating a compromise. Oh yeah, Brad Hand is out there and Kirby Yates. And they do not need to retool the entire bullpen, but adding another closer and maybe one other guys would greatly improve it.
Who is Kendricks and May? Are you talking about Liam Hendricks?
If you are talking about Liam Hendricks, he has been great for the last two years but before that pretty bad. I am looking for relievers that can consistently get outs on both sides of the plate and has a longer track record than Hendricks. Not that I would turn down Hendricks.
Liam Hendriks and Trevor May.
Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman have retired.
I mis spelled that and meant Hendricks. He has been great the last 2 years and that is since he stepped into the closers role. He is one of the best on the market and had a better year than Treinen but everyone thinks we should resign him. Hendricks is a solid closer, and he is only 31. Has not been overused. If they can get him on a 2 year deal it would be a steal. May is Trevor May late of the Twins. Not a closer, but a very solid reliever for them. They will probably non tender Alexander since they have Kolarek and Gonzalez as the 1&2 lefty’s out of the pen. Hand has a better track record than Hendricks, but not sure what he would cost.
Doolittle could very well bounce back, but his wife is not leaving the DC area or close by. They love the schools their kids are in. I would guess that the Nats will eventually re-sign him. If he does not, it will be somewhere close to DC.
Nats have joined the pursuers of DJLM. Not sure why, but they seem pretty serious about it. I do not want Osuna on my team, just like I do not want Springer.
Jeff thanks for the info on Doolittle. I’m going to still hold out hope because even though that’s a credible reason it’s not definite.
And by the way Bear thank you for the info on the rules. I’m disappointed about the three batter minimum rule sticking around and I’m also disappointed that the DH might not stick around.
So you have no problem with a woman-beater (Osuna). If anyone had seen the pictures of his girlfriend after she was beaten, there is no way you would want him on your team, unless you are okay with women-beaters. Giles just had TJ surgery so you would be buying two years. Doolittle is not leaving Washington, and if they do not re-sign him, he is staying close to DC where his wife loves. Next…
Dodgers Add 4 To 40-Man Roster
The Dodgers have added three right-handers – Gerardo Carrillo, Andre Jackson and Edwin Uceta – as well as outfielder Zach Reks to their 40-man roster J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group tweets.
Going by MLB.com’s rankings of the Dodgers’ farm system, Jackson is the lone prospect here who sits in the franchise’s top 30. The former 12th-round pick (2017) comes in at No. 27, though he did thrive between Single-A and High-A ball in his most recent minor league action in 2019. Jackson ended the year with a 3.06 ERA and 11.1 K/9 against 4.5 BB/9 in 114 2/3 innings.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/dodgers-add-4-to-40-man-roster.html#comments
I figured Jackson and Carrillo. I guess the Dodgers have forgiven Uceta for his Covid 19 protocol break that he was sent home for. I have no problem with that. I just read a number of reports that said AF would not protect him because of that. I mentioned that most teams will not protect Relief Pitchers so I am not surprised de Geus was not protected. To me he was the MiLB relief pitcher closest to MLB, but with the number of MLB relief pitchers expected to be available, I doubt that AF figures teams will draft a relief pitcher. I probably overthought that one because I like de Geus. I understand why Estevez was not protected, and I think that has as much to do with the MiLB contraction. He is going to be a utility player without power, but he could be a valuable addition in that role, and he is not yet 23. But I am surprised about Reks. It is not that I do not like Reks, but at 27 his ceiling is nothing more than a #4 or #5 OF. He is LH and the Dodgers do not need another LH bat. He is a LF without the arm for RF. He has developed power, but for those of you who questioned Gavin Lux’s offense, why would anyone be excited about Reks’ power? Again, I like Reks, I just do not see the need for him to be protected.
Maybe he’s going to be part of the Arenado trade which won’t be completed until after the Rule 5 draft, but will be done by Christmas because Bowden says it will.
Beaty, Rios, McKinstry and Reks, all lefty hitters and all have slightly different roles but I don’t see any way they are all still in the Dodger system by opening day.
We should not forget that the Dodgers also have Luke Raley (yet another LHH) on the 40 man. There is just too many of the same guy. If Bowden says Arenado will be a Dodger by Christmas, we can take that to the bank.
Hmm. Well I was surprised they protected Reks. But I think he impressed somebody while at the alternate site because that was the only baseball he played last year. I see Peters is still on the roster. Probably because he is the only RH bat down there. I liked Thomas, and the guy has some kind of power.
Cody has power, but his ceiling is probably a LH bat off the bench and defensive RF. He is a good to great athlete, I just do not know if he is a ML hitter. A lot of MiLB hitters surprise in ST because they generally come in late in the game and quite often are facing MiLB fringe pitchers. I do not remember who Cody hit last ST. IMO, Reks showed his power at AAA. Reks is 11 months older than Cody Thomas.
Peters is the only RH MiLB player with any chance of making the Dodgers roster. The earliest for Hoese and Busch to make MiLB is probably 2022, and probably not until late. DJ could end up as the RH bat off the bench. Not my choice, but the price is right.
Boras may be a pain to deal with but he did get an extension done with Strasburg (at his request). So if Seager really wants to stay an extension is possible. Perhaps that’s what AF means by being pigs.
Why in earth would Seager want to leave L.A.??? We love him here…
Scott B. too??? A lil 1 hour limo ride to the stadium… Couple of beers and checking on Mr. Seager, JT, Joc and others(?)
With me, getting to know and see these Dodger kids from many trips to Rancho C. kills me to hear their names rumored daily… Oh well, that sounds like a personal problem… My runs to Philipes for a beef dip and taking the bus up to Blue Heaven for a game has slowly diminished over the years becuz of cost… I got the dough, but as you know these annual player signings cost me the fan a lot… OK no more whining…
Are the Blue on this S. Korean kid’s list of tryouts yet???
Just when you think you know stuff about the Blue the postings on LADT take you to school… I copy them all for reading in between my PT adventures…
I finally felt a lil chink in the armor from Covid this week… I’m going to forgoe my semi annual trip to Oregon and Washington for Thanksgiving and it hurts… Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday… Christmas with all it’s advertising in full swing has lost its appeal to me… Thanksgiving, a great meal with family and friends, friendly chatter with no politics and no pressure on gift giving, some good football… Last but not least, that day after Turkey sandwich on wheat, lil mayo, salt n pepper, turkey, dressing, cranberry and a large bib which watching some great college football….
That being said, Happy Thanksgiving to all the LADT folks and be safe….
Looking For A Match In A Nolan Arenado Trade
I read this in a chat about a possible Arenado trade, and I liked it, it seems very true, I had not thought about it:
”Except if he is traded somewhere else, then his Coors stats can be added to his road stats. That would push the numbers up significantly. Which is exactly what the stat does for every player that doesn’t play at Coors.”
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/nolan-arenado-trade-rumors-rockies.html#comments
Oops, that’s a re-do…
Wow, Hunter Renfroe was DFA’d today by the Rays. That is a surprise. Not much of a hitter for average, but awesome power and a great arm in RF. 2 former Dodger farm hands added to rosters to protect them from the draft, Connor Wong with the Sox and Yusinel Diaz in Baltimore…..he was part of the Machado trade.
Orioles also added Rylan Bannon (part of the Machado trade).
Rangers added AJ Alexy who was part of the Darvish trade.
Bannon is learning how to catch to increase his versatility. Seems like a good move, and someone who wants to make it to MLB.
I saw him play when he was at Rancho. Kid could hit that was for sure. I wonder if AF would like Renfroe as a bench bat. He would make a perfect DH. I remember when he hit that homer off of the Dodgers at SD that went to the upper tier of the warehouse. What a cannon shot. Brandon Dixon who was part of the Peralta deal with the Reds was released by the Tigers so he can sign with a Japanese team. I saw him play at Rancho too.
BTW, I too was surprised that Renfroe was DFA’d by TB. I thought they would have held onto him until at least his the non-tender date. I guess they just wanted to speed up the inevitability. I can respect that. It does give Hunter some more time to find his next team.
I would love for LA to get Renfroe .He played at Mississippi State,my alma mater,and was our best hitter in 2013 when we played UCLA in the World Series Finals.He hit 3 game winning homers against our Dodgers when he played for San Diego. I am pretty sure he is Rh.
Friedman knows that Boras can’t be played but it can’t hurt for Friedman to leak that he has heard the rumors surrounding Arenado to fan the rumor mill. Friedman has already stated he wants a big righty bat and the opening is at 3rd base.
Turner knows of the rumor as well as Boras and Seager. If Boras believes now would be a good time extend Seager maybe the Arenado rumor will nudge the negotiations forward.
How do you build a $276,000,000 team?
5 for Rotation: ………………………………………$90M
4 for Super position players : ………….$112M
4 for not so Super position players …..$32M
2 for closer and setup ………………………….$32M
5 for relievers …………………………………………..$6M
6 for young position players ………………….$4M
Benefits included
Do the Dodgers really only want to get a draft pick for Seager if he walks next year? Offer him the MAX you feel comfortable with. Have a pandemic clause in it if need be. If he’s not willing to sign (what? 10 year 250-300m) then like Cleveland and Lindor, I’m going to try and trade him this winter.
Arm chair Fantasy GM back at you. Don’t get me wrong. I still want to trade for Snell but today I’m thinking Seager, Ruiz, Pollock and Santana to the Yankees for Aaron Judge and GleyberTorres. Then trade Gavin Lux and minor prospect for Lindor. Play Rios at 3rd or sign JT for 2 years if $ are reasonable.
RF. Betts
SS Lindor
LF. Judge
CF. Bellinger
2B. Torres
1B. Muncy
C. Smith
3B. Turner\Rios
Would still rather trade for Snell.
Fantasy is the key word there JR.
The only major star the Yankees would get is Seager and he only has one year left on his contract.
Even though your deal has less than zero chance of happening I do love that lineup. Might very well qualify as the best lineup of all time.
No wait. Freddie Freeman is one year away from FA so the Braves are going to want to get something for him. I say the Dodgers put together a package for Freeman. I know he is LH but what the heck.
Freddie is from SoCal. Done deal!
He’s a hard worker. I’m sure he could learn to switch hit.
Wow! This is getting wild! Pretty soon the only remaining Dodger in next years lineup will be Betts!
Why not trade Bellinger & a couple of prospect pitchers to the Angels for Trout? Angels need monetary relief. Dodgers get best player in baseball under contract for many years.