Armchair GM

Posted By on October 16, 2020

Well, basically, that is what we all are in some form or another. I know that I have often thought, damn, I can do it better than he can, or what is he thinking? Armchair GM’s also usually feel they are good managers too.

Over the last several years, I have often disagreed with both Roberts and AF. I still feel Roberts, although a great communicator and player’s manager, still plays favorites sometimes and sticks with his player, even when the player’s skill’s or production have deteriorated. I still also believe he is not a great or even very good baseball strategist.

As for AF, well I thought, especially when he first arrived on the scene that he was just acquiring players who were cheap and hoping for lightning in a bottle. That assumption was made because it seemed at the time that he was claiming almost every pitcher or player who was put on waivers.

Later because of what was written I found he was doing all of that to give the team some minor league depth while he transitioned the minor league system to his way of doing things. There were some very good players already in the pipeline at that time, and the team itself was starting to come together.

I of course, being as old school as I am, did not get all the sabermetric data he was using when he picked these player’s up. So for the better part of the time he has been in charge, I have scratched my head at almost every move. Agreed with some, disagreed with more. And yet, here we are 6 seasons later and they still are winning.

I also admit, I have mellowed a lot in those 6 years. I was more combative then, and more likely to start an argument. I still argue, and I still take issue with some of the moves made by both of those guys. But I also try to understand WHY, more.

The game itself has changed immensely from the game I played back in the day. I think because I have finally begun to accept that it will never be like that game again that I can finally enjoy this version of baseball a little more.

The 3 true outcome hitters have made the strikeout acceptable. Guys like Muncy and Pederson, as long as they keep the power numbers up have a value to the team. Muncy walks a lot. Joc prior to this truncated season, could be counted on to deliver a long ball when the team needed one. Yeah, he still struck out a lot, but he also had days when they could not get him out.

The best contact hitters on the team are Betts, Seager, Smith and Turner. Belli, Joc and Muncy are the 3 true outcome guys. Taylor, Barnes, Kike, Pollock and to some extent Rios and Beaty, are the streak hitters.

Being the armchair GM I am, I do not retain Joc or Kike. There are cheaper options in the chain. The starting staff will no doubt be bolstered next year by the return of Price. So, going into spring they will have Kersh, Price, Buehler, May, Gonsolin, Urias, Gray and White as the potential rotation staples.

My thinking is that they either need to decide on an in house replacement and PARTNER in the closer’s job next year, or at least trade or sign someone with that kind of experience. My thinking, and I am thinking as a GM now, is that Baez, Treinen, McGee, Alexander, Wood, and possibly Floro will not be returning. That is a chunk of salary right there.

I think Jansen will not be moved simply because of the 18 Million he is owed next season. I would resign Turner to a 2 year deal. No longer than that. And after his playing days I would do whatever I could to keep him in the organization.

Bullpen arms are easy to find. Getting the right mix is the trick. This year, at least through the regular season, the mix has been pretty good.

I honestly believe that over this winter, when he can look at film, and also have some sessions with the hitting guru’s on the team, that Bellinger is going to look a lot different come next year. He is too good of an athlete to not make adjustments.

He is also one of those guys who so far in his career is very good year, so so year, and then a very good year again. This year was somewhat of a downer. He should rebound nicely. Muncy has 2 more years on his deal.

I would guarantee he is not going to be happy about how this year has played out, and if healthy, he is going to be one of the harder workers in camp next season.

As for Roberts, his job is safe. Even if the team is beaten in this playoff, he is going nowhere unless the word comes down from ownership and they blame someone for the continued lack of a win in the World Series or not getting there. AF is definitely safe. He is the ownership’s fair haired boy.

I am often wrong, but aren’t we all?  I love the game, and I love the team. They have been, and always will be a huge part of me. I got a message on Facebook from the wife of one of my friends here in town. She is up in the Springs with her daughter and her husband who are both huge Dodger fans. That right there shows we are everywhere.

We have endured over 30 years without the big prize. If it eludes us again, we will all analyze, and critique all off season. Make suggestions for changes that we all know the owners and FO are not even going to consider.

We will watch the winter meetings and the free agent moves and signings and when some star signs somewhere else when we know that guy would have been a perfect fit in blue, we will call the ownership cheap for not fulfilling our fantasy.

Happens every year they do not win. I have often said that AF has done nothing until the team crosses the finish line and brings home the trophy. The thing is, this year, because of everything that has happened, it is about as hard to do as anything they have ever done.

Just being in the bubble, playing for so long with no fans in the stands has changed the entire dynamic. And more changes are coming. The 3 hitter rule is not going away, and I am pretty sure the DH is in the NL to stay.

7 inning double headers will not return, but they still will be part of the minor leagues. The runner on second to start extra innings has garnered some support, but I do not believe it will be adopted. Some old school people dislike it a lot. One of them being Kershaw who said it is not real baseball.

The electronic strike zone is coming kids. Bank on it. For some it is something that should have been implemented a while ago. I also think that MLB, because of all of the controversy about how bad some of these umps are, will re-evaluate many of them before that happens and is implemented.

The QO this season is 18.9 million. I do not see a single free agent on the Dodgers who will be offered that kind of scratch. When the series is over, and after players declare, and teams make offers to the ones they want to keep, and implement the dual or team options they have on their players, it will be a lot easier to see who the Dodgers might target. Right now it would be nothing more than speculation.

I once again later in the year will pull out my armchair GM hat, and make my moves. Whether AF follows my lead or not, well, that remains to be seen!   That is me and my brother Steve……my choice for the new Dodger manager! (Pictured) LOL

This article has 162 Comments

  1. Nice synopsis Michael – can’t argue with much of that.
    I too was wary of AFs methodology at the beginning, but was won over.

    However, I did not like our chances at all last night when I saw the lineup.
    In fact for the first time in the 20 Post Season I did not get up in the middle of the night to watch.
    This morning I see the box score. 3 hits.
    I’m not gonna say any more for fear of moaning, but suffice to say I was not surprised.
    I’ve read that Kershaw was not at his best. Well, not surprising considering he couldn’t pitch 2 days ago because of injury. I wonder if it might have been prudent to use May last night , or even to have pulled Urías before he threw a pitch the night before – after all, Wood and Co could surely have preserved an 11 run lead?
    Julio could’ve picked up Kershaw if needed last night, or May tonight?

    Anyway – we’ve all seen this script before – maybe one year things will all click into place.

  3. You have to face facts, the results are what they are and they point to model that isn’t designed to win rings,. It is built to win in the regular season, feasting on weak pitchers. The problem is very few weak pitchers are faced in the higher rounds of the post season. I have often said for many years, this team won’t win championships following the AF methodology. Feast or famine performance will continue, with more famine in the post season than feast. I’m not whining, I have been seeing this thing for many seasons now, The Truth Hurts!

  4. All I can say is, “Ouch!” No matter how often it happens, it still hurts. So close, and yet, so far. And to see Kersh do it again is still disappointing, no matter how often we’ve seen it before. Usually it is the “unlucky” 7th inning. This time, the 6th. No matter. Just when you thought he might redeem himself. And you have to feel sorry for him. Despite how great a pitcher he is, he’ll be remembered with a small asterisk: lost it in the postseason. Is this all his fault? No. If we’re ever going to win it all,.we need dominant pitching. And this year, we don’t have enough of it.

  5. Nice analysis and it will be interesting to see what AF does. As for me playing armchair GM;
    * Starting pitching is loaded, stand pat
    *Sign JT to a contract that allows him to play another yr or two then work somewhere in the organization
    * I do believe the bullpen will turn over some but not as much as you.
    * There will be no need for Joc and Kike w guys like Rios and McKinstry in the pipeline.
    * Jansen will just have to be tolerated and used mid innings. After next yr his contract is up and he won’t be pitching for LA. Maybe coaching in the minors for us.
    * I agree there isn’t anyone I would give the QO.

    1. Just a guess Daniel. All the guys who I think will leave are free agents. Trienen, Baez, McGee, Wood. Floro is arbitration eligible. I wonder if he is even tendered a contract. With the QO as high as it is, it is a no brainer that they are not offering that to Joc or Kike. Do they bring back Alexander? Kelly has one year left on his deal. I do not think they blow the whole thing up however. Just not the way it has been done the last 8 years. I know this sounds weird, but AF is a tweaker. He mixes and matches. I think one of the biggest disappointments for me this series is the performance of Betts. I guess I just expected him to make a huge difference. But that has not happened. But then again, he cannot do it all.

      1. One comment before bed……….The Dodgers only played a limited amount of teams in this shortened, crazy, season. I don’t think it is possible to say they were the best team in baseball even though they had the best record and run differential. Obviously, the competition in other divisions never came into play so we have nothing to measure it by.

        As far as the BP next season, Treinen is probably too expensive to retain and Wood is just not up to what we want or need. I would let Floro and Alexander go and probably Baez. McGee is still intriguing to me. Kolarek is a waste of time since the 3 batter rule. Kelly and Kenley are disappointing but they are signed already. Dodgers need to focus on the BP and develop the pitchers for long and short work depending on their ability especially Ferguson, Victor Gonzalez, Gray, White, Santana, and Graterol. Commit to them. Close by committee until someone stands above the rest. The starters are set so use any farm guys in relief and make them work. None of them are going to start including White and Gray. They are blocked until someone either get hurt or withers away.

        Make sure you trade Joc and Kike. Test the waters for Bellinger and Muncy. What can they bring us in return? Make a real decision on Lux, Rios, & Beaty. Sign JT short term.

        Dump Doc and sign Badger!

        1. They cannot trade either Kike or Joc unless they resigned them both. They can declare free agency after the World Series. Ferguson will not be ready until 2022. His surgery takes 18 months at least to recover from. I sincerely doubt AF kicks the tires on a Bellinger or Muncy trade. They might bring something back, but I just do not see that even being considered. If he traded either, it would probably be Muncy.

  6. 3 hits. In a playoff game. 10 runs given up in a game that sets us up to be eliminated. We gave the Braves the same number of unearned runs that we scored. 0fer WRISP. Bullpen 4 earned in 4 innings. That was a total meltdown. Maybe we just aren’t as good as our record says we are. We will see very soon.

    Sorry Stevie. I maybe overreacted. But it’s just baseball. See ball hit ball. Run catch throw. A 5 year old can play this game. And professionals being paid millions shouldn’t need a damm pep talk. Saber metrics math say the best managers in the game are worth 2 WAR over a 162 game season. That’s .012345678 per game. That means I could make out the lineup and the Dodgers should win. Is Roberts one of the best? I don’t know. He was in ‘16. Was in the running a few times.

    The only suggestion I have for today’s game is to play with the same urgency the Braves are playing with. Those guys are having fun, jumping all over the place. Shut ‘em up and shut ‘em down. Then do it again tomorrow. If they lay another egg we will have plenty of time to talk about it for months.

  7. If you want to make a statement after suffering a 15-3 beat down, the Braves just made it. Let’s have the rookie out pitch the first ballot hall of famer and let’s beat hit their relief pitchers like the proverbial rented mule.

    Whether the Braves are a better team than the Dodgers, I’ll leave for others to argue. For 3 of the 4 games of this series, they’ve scored more runs than the Dodgers, and they’ve looked good doing it.

    1. Rob – when you looked at our lineup from Muncy onwards yesterday, could you see any way we were going to string some hits together?
      6 all or nothing hitters in a row.
      Pollock and Smith had been making solid contact, but both sat in favour of HR hitters. It did not make any sense.

  8. Last night for 5 innings the game was tolerable. I had to admire Wilson for the work he was doing. He made the best pitches at the best time. He struck them out when he needed to, and did not allow a whole lot of solid contact. At this point you would have to say that the Braves just want it more. They are playing loose, and they are having fun. Last night the Dodgers looked tight. There were no smiles in the dugout. I think Dave loaded up with power hitters because of some of the data they had on the pitcher. They even showed a graph early in the game about how bad Wilson was against LH hitters. Something like a 400 plus average. So using that, you would think those guys would not have too much trouble with the rookie. Well, sometimes the data is wrong, and last night is proof of that. Now it is suck it up time. They are on the precipice of going home empty handed again. The expectations that fans and ownership had for this team have been so high, this is going to be a hard pill to swallow. Not to mention how many times we are going to hear the word choke this winter. It is never the other team that outplays the Dodgers, it is the Dodgers choking. SF fans have to be ready to celebrate along with the Braves faithful. They knocked the king off of his throne.

  9. Very enjoyable write-up, Bear, and I loved the picture too. Disappointed about the loss last night but I do not blame it on AF or Doc, the umpires, ball field, the announcers, although sometimes that Mr. Buck drove me crazy with his seemingly over-enthusiasm for the Braves. No, the hitters and some pitchers should shoulder the responsibility. 3 hits and 2 runs does not seem to be enough against this Braves team that also has some very good pitching and some very good hitters.

    I agree with most of your comments on what new rules will be kept next year. I also think that Clayton may not have been at 100% and perhaps one more day of rest might have helped. Have I ever said that along with some pitchers, I hate the shift?

    Not one to give up hope, I am hoping the Dodgers will recoup and be victorious the next few games.

    Also, Bear, just wanted to say that I hope your son’s mother gets well.

    1. Thank you DBM. Debbie passed away this morning around 2 am. My son was there in Okie City with her. We never married, but we were together for quite a while. I am more concerned with his well being right now than baseball.

      1. So sorry to hear that, Bear. Yes, I agree, family comes first. And it is hard to not be able to put a bandaid on your children’s hurts.

        1. So very true. He is close to 40 and had his son die at 7. So he has handled it before. And losing a parent is a lot different than losing a child. My mom passed when she was 42. I was over seas in Germany and had to come home to make all the arrangements. Notifying her family, and taking care of all that will keep him very busy. The time to mourn will come after when he gets back home.

          1. It never stops hurting regardless of happening like sun rises. I’m beginning to think I’ll be the last man alive. Sorry that it’s near to you today.

          1. Thank you David. I am waiting to hear from him. I know he is busy notifying her family and all, and taking care of the arrangements.

      2. I do blame Doc for nothing being plan 2. It was obvious quickly the hard hit balls weren’t clearing yard but the whole team stuck to the same approach like the wind was going to help. I think Dodgers really are the most talented but their talent is being squandered. Sometimes adjustments have to be fluid. And none were made.

  10. Good write-up.

    But my biggest question, looking ahead, will fans be back in the stands. I certainly hope so, just not the same game without them.

    Obviously there is talk of Trevor Bauer, who has expressed some interest in pitching for the Dodgers on more than one occasion. But the Dodgers have a lot of good young pitchers, plus David Price back.

    I agree with Bear on Kike and Joc. Edwin Rios has certainly made a statement, some serious power.

    Still believe the Dodgers will be more focused on retaining the core moving forward, including Cody Bellinger and Cory Seager.

    Guessing they will want Justin Turner back on a short term deal.

    Then there is the bullpen. I thought they did pretty well putting it together for this season, but it has faltered lately. No easy answers. Pretty much a crapshoot.

    I’m guessing Walker Buehler is better in 2021. Maybe it was the spring training shutdown or the mid summer workouts and the shortened season, but he just seemed off, walking too many, not being efficient.

    Thinking Gavin Lux rises to the occasion in ’21, which much means the team in the field is set.

    As to the college softball tournament rule, yah I can’t see baseball keeping that. The seven inning doubleheaders really don’t bother me if they actually play back to back games, like the old days. One ticket buys a twin bill. Loved day time doubleheaders back in the day.

    Is it that big of a deal calling balls and strikes? Yes, they miss one here and there, but it’s a human game. Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should.

    Anyone think the Dodgers can win three straight?

    1. I think they are perfectly capable of winning 3 in a row. They reeled off 8 straight before the Braves beat them. The question is, are they up to the challenge mentally. We will see starting today. Hopefully the fans are back. You are right on the money about that. The energy they give the team is a huge boost, and the Dodger Stadium crowd can really pump them up.

    1. One would have to agree with that. I also agree with a statement made earlier. This team is built for the long haul. In a full season, they have the extra talent needed to replace parts. In a playoff series, that formula seems to fall to pieces. And Friedman to this point in his career as a team builder has not had a team get over that barrier. This is one of the richest franchises in sports in the second largest city in the country with one of the best ballparks, and for the last 30 plus years, we have been frustrated time and time again. Fans want answers and changes, sometimes way more radical that what one would think. I already see that mentality on other blogs. Twitter, which has some passionate fans along with the usual trolls, is virtually blowing up. If they get eliminated, the calls for the heads of both AF and Roberts will be long and loud.

  12. Wow, I think it’s a little premature to start talking like the season is over. I still have hope in a big comeback. After all, the Dodgers have rattled off 3 in a row many times this year. Does May step up to Walker Bueller status tonight? Will Walker out-dual Fried tomorrow? Then it’s all hands on deck for an all-time classic game 7. I’m trying real hard to keep the faith. Sure, it’s not likely, but stranger things have happened. After all, this is baseball and it’s why we love this game.

    Last night was a debacle. A lot of soft stuff hit through the infield starting with Acuna’s chopper. On the flip side of Corey Seager lining two doubles just foul on each side of the field in the same at bat. The Gods were kind to the Braves last night.

    I don’t want to go on an end of year rant on who to fire, release, trade just yet. I’ll save that for when the Dodgers’s season is over, hopefully in a couple of weeks.

    I’ll leave this with one thought. Does anyone think Clayton Kershaw will ever carry a team during the post-season? Last night was typical. Pitches well, then loses it all of the sudden. He seemed to go a little mental after the horrible Acuna play to start the inning. A chopper that should have been an out, but Kike makes a bad throw and Muncy let’s it bang off his glove. You know the rest.

    The game would have gone a lot differently with a little luck. Baseball is weird.

    1. Yep, stranger things have happened. The only team to overcome a 3-1 deficit in the playoffs was the Red Sox team that Roberts was on. His stolen base ignited the Sox. They won game 5 and then the next two to go on to and win the World Series. Hey, they Cheetos won a game yesterday when they were down 3-1. The Dodgers are capable of the same. What they do need is some pitch efficiency and length out of May today. Then let the next two days take care of themselves.

    2. I’m with you on most of that Bulldog. It ain’t over, but this field has been kinder to the Braves. I don’t think the Dodgers like Texas all that much. Dallas and Atlanta are probably more accordant.

      Kershaw has had back issues for some time now. I expected 5 innings then he’d be gone regardless of pitch count. We have an injured front end of our starting staff. Buehler’s fingers looked dipped in raptor dung just to get him through 5. It obviously effects his command and why wouldn’t it. May is evidently too young, Urias needs 20 pitches to find himself, the Price wasn’t right and Gonsolin remains on the wtf is wrong with him list as he disappears for weeks at a time. The bullpen has been good for most of this year but has been mentioned they haven’t faced this group before.

      There is still time but play like they did last night this will be settled in short order.

  13. We have been owned by three rookie pitchers. Why? Analytics. It’s less see the ball hit the ball and more guess which pitch is coming and when to swing. This is why Joc is our best and most clutch playoff hitter, and also why they want to move him, because he still operates the old way, see the ball hit the ball, as evidenced by how many big hits he gets on pitches out of the zone. Unless the opposing pitchers we face in the playoffs are NL retreads that we’ve seen a hundred times this strategy will result in continued failure in the postseason

    1. Joc is a good playoff hitter, but not exactly the most clutch or the best. Turner has been that guy up until this run. They were willing to trade him and Stripling because they have a lot of outfielders who are the same guy. Over the years, the Dodgers have always had trouble with most pitchers they have never seen before. And those kids are pretty good pitchers. We have some of our own, but they have either not been allowed to show that, or have not exactly pitched as well. I think going forward the young guns are going to be fine. Of course that does little good in the present situation. I do not expect AF to change his philosophy on how to build a team anytime soon.

    2. It may come as a surprise to you, but the Braves use analytics. In fact they rely on them a lot. Also, Max Fried, and to a little lesser degree, Ian Anderson, are very good pitchers. Fried may be among the very best. I just wish Ian hadn’t give up his gig with Jethro Tull.

  14. We do have a chance to win three in a row. We are substantial favorites today, and if we win, we have Buehler, though they have Fried. The last game would be Gonsolin vs. Anderson. I don’t even know if Urias can pitch at all the rest of the series, because Roberts let him throw over 100 pitches with a 14-run lead. And our bullpen is in terrible shape, which is something that i had suggested earlier. Last night, everyone we used in relief did a poor job. Still, if we gain momentum with a win today, we do have some chance.

    What does bother me, and always has, is when people say, “Well, the manager didn’t strike out, or make the error, or throw the bad pitches, so why blame him?” No manager does that on the field, no football coach fumbles the ball or fails to tackle; no basketball coach misses shots or doesn’t play defense. So why ever fire a coach or manager? Because what their team does on the field is a reflection of the coaching or managing. The exception would be if there is absolutely no talent there at all. but that is hardly the case here. So while one doesn’t want to go player by player, one managerial decision after another, it is a whole. And I contend that Roberts is not the kind of manager that we need to win titles. Maybe we could somehow win one, and the could live off it for 40 more years, but he is still limited in his abilities to get his teams to succeed in the postseason. We can go over pulling Hill early twice in World Series games, when any smart manager would have seen that he was pitching great, with intense focus. Leaving in Kershaw after the first homerun in the eighth last year. Having Kelly start his second inning. Pitching Darvish in game 7 when Kershaw was obviously able to pitch four innings, since he did when the game was over. There are others. The lineups, the handling of the bullpen. No manager is perfect, but he is worse than the best ones, and that’s whom you have to beat in the playoffs. It seems obvious to me.

    The Dodgers in some way are like Disney. Lots of happy talk, welcome to the magic kingdom. They hate to make any changes. They didn’t even fire Mattingly, Friedman kept saying that they intended to keep him, but then maybe there was some disagreement about analytics. They hired Roberts for mostly public relations aspects. They can keep him forever, we cannot do anything about that. They can do anything they want, they own the team, the fans do not, though they depend on the fans. But this ownership so far has no championships, does that matter to them? Maybe not. So far, pending the end of these playoffs, the approach of ownership and the management they hire has brought much regular season success, but no championships, and now the Dodgers are in danger of becoming a joke, as the team which wins all the games but falls apart in the playoffs. Is this just bad luck, or is there something wrong with their model of trying to pick up under-the-radar players like Muncy and Taylor, or do they have the wrong manager? Are they just going to go out there next year and do the same thing, albeit with a few different faces? At this point, i have no real interest in following the regular season next year, all those wins and statistics which mean nothing in playoff time. To me, they look like a wildcard team next year. Of course, there is still a chance to save this season, let’s see if we can do it.

    1. I do not think you can blame the manager for player performance. But his decisions during the game do affect the outcome. My one consistent criticism of Roberts has always been that I do not think he is a great baseball strategist, More than anything else, he is a players manager. He rubs egos. And at that he is very good. Tommy Lasorda would be madder than hell at the way this team has performed in the playoffs. He won with teams that had less talent, and he beat a much superior team, the 88 A’s, with great pitching and clutch hitting. Alston did the same. Kershaw is a great in season pitcher who has had less than stellar, along with some very good post season games. The problem is it seems to me that he melts down when the team can least afford it. At least in the critical series. They kept harping on the broadcast about his NLCS numbers being so bad, He is now 3-6 in NLCS games with an ERA of 4.84. Smoltz kept saying that a couple of really bad innings had led to the high ERA. Might be true, but in 57.2 innings he has given up 31 earned runs. And has allowed 8 homers. So can the comparison’s to Koufax stop now? One thing I do believe, if Buehler was pitching like he did last year, and they had another stud starter besides those two, the script may have been flipped another way. But the starters have not given them much length, and no matter how good your bullpen is, that has to be a strain on all of them.

    2. Well William, it is true that Roberts has in the past made some moves the rest of us wouldn’t have made. That will happen over 5 years. But he’s winning over 60% of his games and in baseball that’s exceptional. There are HOF Managers that didn’t do that. And frankly in this series it hasn’t been his moves that are losing games, it’s his players swallowing an olive that is losing them. The Braves are playing better and it isn’t because of their manager, a guy who a month ago I couldn’t have named. Brian Snitker. Really? Who tf is he?

      All or nothing blind squirrel baseball. That’s us. Hit .220, strike out all you want, but walk enough and hit enough home runs to OPS near .800 and you are Dodger material.

      Turner, .206, Smith, 212, Taylor .143, Rios .182, Hernandez, .182, Bellinger .257. Usta suck to hit like that. But OPS over .800 and it adds up to runs. Most of the time anyway. This post season we are hitting .247 as a team and hitting a home run once every 27.2 at bats. Blind squirrel nut hunting ain’t working in this series. Our #1 pitching staff looked pretty good for a while. Overall a .223 OBA. Urias’ 13 innings and 0.77 WHIP and 0.69 ERA has helped those numbers. In total Kershaw’s post season numbers don’t look that bad but what will likely be remembered is one inning last night.

      I’m hopeful for a win today. This game next pitch. Always.

  15. I think Muncy had a hard time seeing the bad throw. Lot of the players were complaining that they couldn’t see due to the bad winds

    1. Yep, it looked like it was not fun to play in that mess. Freeman was having trouble with his contacts drying out. MLB made the decision to play with the roof open which they like to do if it is not raining. But why when conditions were so miserable for the players they did not close the roof is beyond me. Roberts did talk to the umpire in chief about that after the second inning.

  16. We all know that Kershaw has not been Hall of Fame good during past playoffs but starters have to depend on their bullpen to some extent to keep their own ERA numbers intact.

    Starting in 2013, during the playoffs, CK has left the game with a total of 17 runners on base. The bullpen has allowed 15 of those runners to score, that’s 88%. Anyone have any idea what the average is for inherited runners allowed to score? I’m assuming it’s a lot lower than 88%.

    1. I think you could probably find that stat on fangraphs or something like that. But I am pretty sure it is a lot lower than 88%. I would think somewhere closer to say 30 or 40. I know opposing pitchers have done well against the Dodgers in a lot of those kinds of situations.

      1. Was I the only one that was satisfied with 5 innings out of Kershaw? He’s got back issues. He’s had back issues for a few years now. He missed a start because of his back. Clayton, give us all you got for 5 and we will win the last 4 for you. We gave up 6 runs in his 6th inning and that game was lost right there. He threw 87 pitches and in my world I would not have allowed a 76th.

        1. Wow that is a staggering stat. And yes, I would love to know what the average is.

          And yes, Badger, my buddies texted me last night in the 5th and said “isn’t this the inning where Kersh gets into trouble?” I said no, it’s the 6th, and it’s even scarier because Acuna/Freeman/Ozuna are coming up. Sure enough, bad luck or not, it happened again.

      2. The dodgers allowed 29% of inherited runners to score in 2020, and the league average was 32%. The last three years the league average was 30-32% of inherited runners to score per Baseball Reference. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2020-reliever-pitching.shtml
        Kershaw has definitely been hurt by his relief pitching in the playoffs. Usually it has been Baez, but Graterol was bad last night.
        I agree with Badger that 5 innings was plenty for Kershaw last night, as he was coming off injury and did not seem to have great stuff. I would have taken him out after 5 with the top of order coming up. And no way would I have let him pitch to Ozuna who had hit two balls hard against him. But Roberts did not have any great options that would have worked last night.
        Kershaw is my favorite player, and I feel terrible for him, but I know he leaves everything on the field and cares deeply about his team. He is a sure fire hall of famer, and a great person, and hopefully his teammates can help him win a World Series.

    2. Yeah, STB, those are numbers I was curious about. We’ve always had bullpen issues in the past playoffs. I knew that many of Kershaw’s outings he left with 2-3 men on base and that the bullpen failed to prevent them from scoring. But, 88% is just insane. If you took an average of inherited prevented from scoring in the playoffs and the beating Kershaw took in game 5 against the cheating Asstros and adjusted Kershaw’s ERA it would be a hell of a lot different. But, we can’t, so there you go. It is what it is…. a failure to succeed whether warranted or not .

  18. Bear, unless I misunderstood what you were saying, you mentioned above that the only team to come back from a 3-1 deficit was Doc’s Red Sox team. They actually came back from 3-0.

    Coming back from 3-1 has been done 13 times since 1925, including of course Doc’s 1986 Red Sox team. The last time it was done was in 2016 when the Cubs did it against the Indians on their way to breaking the curse.

    The Royals actually came back from 3-1 in both the ALCS and the WS in 1985.

    Oops, looks like you beat me to it Bisonjones, and you supplied videos.

    We got this! Start planning the parade.

    1. My bad…I was using recent thinking not long term memory, and I listened too much to what Joe Buck was babbling about.

  19. If WAR is the Holy Grail of modern-day baseball then AF should find some mathematical savant to come up with a playoff WAR. 162 game WARs are fun to talk about and a nice stat to justify decisions and arguments but don’t seem to relate to short series. There must be some way to analytically measure something like a that. If not, it is just plain dumb luck.

    1. Great point stevie. I imagine someone has already calculated Playoff WAR. We just need to find the numbers and then forward them to AF.

      1. I’m sure they have them. We’ve been there 8 years running so there’s enough data there to produce a number. We’ve done well in post season, winning several series’, setting offensive records now and then. Well, now, not so much then maybe. You gotta win your Division over 162. Ok, you don’t gotta but it helps. And you gotta get home field when you can so you can win the 7th game at home. Well I guess you don’t gotta do that….

        I’m gonna go get a cold drink. I’ve been working outside, it’s 91 out there and I think the heat got to my head.

        1. Let’s recall that the Godfather of Moneyball, Billy Beane, couldn’t win a WS. He himself said that Sabermetrics will get you to the playoffs, but after that, it’s a crapshoot. I don’t entirely agree. Think of Koufax-Drysdale. Great pitching beats great hitting. Think Washington Nationals last year. We need shut down pitching for the playoffs. Maybe we have the potential with the Young Guns – Buehler, Urias, May, Gonsolin, Gray, White – but it’s too soon to know. With Kersh’s back and inconsistency in the playoffs, and Buehler’s blister, we don’t have it this year.

          1. “With Kersh’s back and inconsistency in the playoffs, and Buehler’s blister, we don’t have it this year. “

            Good points.

            But we can score runs in bunches.

  20. There’s a fun article by Cory Brock today in the Athletic on the 1970 Spokane Indians “Tommy’s Gang”. The best AAA team I ever saw.
    I personally, am not making any comments about off-season transactions and personel until this season is over. There’s plenty of time when this season ends.
    Here are my thoughts on last night:
    * Andy McCullough of the Athletic this morning criticized Doc for leaving CK in to face Ozuna a 3rd time. It’s an easy criticism when you know the outcome. Dusty Baker stuck with his pitcher in the Cheato’s win yesterday and was lauded as a loyal Savant for keeping the guy in against the book. His move worked. Doc’s didn’t. Doc has made some mistakes for sure in the past, but trusting and sticking your Ace to face Ozuna wasn’t one of them.
    * Nobody pitched well. Floro was closest, giving up a homer and 2 unearned when Beaty can’t catch the ball at first base.
    * MLB does it again. With the bubble format and select, warm weather venues there is no fear of a rain out, snow out, freezing temps or a postponement. The game in San Diego with the Rays and Cheatos was perfect weather. So who in MLB decided to leave the friggin roof open to play in a windstorm in Arlington? The excuse was to keep the covid in the wide open spaces, like there isn’t enough ventilation with the roof closed and the folks in there aren’t pretty much quarantined? You got folks in hoodies and bundled up like they were playing in Boston or Philly in the snow with the wind whipping around like Candlestick. It was a a safety decision. Right. Piss in my ear and tell me it’s raining. Manfred and MLB have another cranial-rectal inversion.
    * 2nd base has become an offensive Black Hole. Apparently CT3 has lost that job by hitting .143 (.429) with 11 K’s in 28 AB’s. His replacement, Kike, is hitting .182 (.762) with 5 K’s in 11 AB’s. Why is 2nd always a troublesome position year in and year out?
    * Bottom line – a rookie shoves it up your nose. Apparently this line up didn’t read the Memo that Wilson gets lit up by left handed bats. The Dodgers get 2 runs, both by an unlikely DH, on 3 hits and 4 LOB. No Traffic. No production.
    End of story.

    1. Agree philjones on the roof situation. MLB and one of the worst commissioners in the history of pro sports decide to pick a stadium with a dome and then think it’s a good idea to leave the roof open and subject the players and fans to high winds. I mean, what the hell? The response was “the winds will die down soon”. They did not. It’s a playoff game and an important one at that. It was obviously affecting the players and their performance. I don’t know how long it takes to close the roof. But after two complete innings I would have had the commissioner on the phone and told him to close the roof or we pulling the players off the field until it is closed. They’re always talking about safety for the players and then they pull crap like this. It’s just such BS. MLB and Manfred continually do their best to make todays baseball, well…. not baseball.

      1. Phil, if the wind whips around and moves a ball hit to the outfield, could it not make it harder for the pitcher to hit his spots? Not saying that is why we lost as both pitchers had the wind to pitch into, but wondered.

  21. Last night’s game was one where the Dodgers didn’t play well in any aspect of the game – they didn’t hit and the bullpen stank.

    I didn’t think that Kershaw looked like himself all night. He was missing arm side which meant that he wasn’t coming all of the way around on his release point, probably because his back was still stiff. It’s also why his breaking stuff wasn’t crisp and why his velocity wasn’t up. For 5 innings, he got away with it. He’s a warrior.

    I don’t fault Roberts except that he should have been ready to pull Kershaw out of there at the first sign of trouble.

    Like I said before, no one executed last night – it’s everyone’s fault.

  22. Maybe what this team needs isn’t a pat on the back, but someone to get in their face. Where’s Gibby when we need him?

    1. Ahh, a kick in the ass would be more beneficial, but that is not Doc’s MO.

      1. When they got it going it’s magic. But watching them play is like waiting on a surfboard for that 7th wave. It’s a capricious progenitor, which means you know it’s out there somewhere but you can’t count on it. We know it’s coming, but….. when?

        I know all or nothing is us but the old coach in me would rather watch a team of 26 ballers. Strike 1 is yours, strikes 2 and 3 are the team’s. You WILL protect the plate and make contact. Nobody at third and a shortstop playing near the grass toward the middle? You go down the line with something. If you can’t bunt a strike that general direction how the hell did you make it this far?

      2. Guys, none of this is on Doc this post season with the possible exception of some line up decisions. It’s up to the players to PLAY BETTER. An ass chewing or a hug by the SKIPPER are nice media stories but it’s the players who decide the outcome.

  23. Minter gets the open for the Braves. We know it is a bullpen day for the Atl. Seager hit a 3 run shot off of him in the comeback almost game

  27. Winning 3 games in a row isn’t going to be easy against this team, but it’s definitely in the realm of possibility. Again… it’s the first team to win 4 games… so we just have to play one game and one inning at a time.
    –
    I was not real happy with the strategy / approach at the plate last night. The wind was a huge factor… blowing in for much of the game, so right off the bat you should (as a team) come to the decision that there’s not going to be a lot of home runs hit and you should focus on making contact, putting the ball in play, and passing the baton. Very much like the Braves did in the 6th inning and the Dodgers did amazingly well in Game 3 against the Padres. Whether it was the game prior that made them take this approach or the fact that they thought the wind would be blowing out all game, as was reported it was before the start of the game… I’m not sure. But this team has a very hard time making adjustments throughout the game when needed… or in the case of Game 1, staying on script for more than a few innings when it looks like a strategy is working. 
    –
    You can definitely say that our relief pitchers did not execute last night… because in essence, they gave up a lot of hits and allowed runners to score. But what I also noticed is the overall pitching strategy seemed to be off. Kershaw wasn’t missing his locations in the 6th inning… he was locating them just fine. My question is… why are you pitching the ball middle in, to Freddy Freeman on a 1-2 count? Also, look at where ball placement is on the hits against Graterol… they are all essentially down the middle of the plate or middle in. Again… just like Kershaw… Graterol was hitting his locations with pin point accuracy… so that comes down to an overall strategy question. Yes, the Braves players still have to execute and hit those pitches… but it’s a little easier to hit those pitches when they are right in a players wheelhouse… even if the pitch is 100 mph.
    –
    Lastly… baseball is definitely flukey and it can seem like one team is getting all the bounces and lucky breaks throughout a game and the other team is snake bit. It sure felt like that last night when their hits found holes and ours didn’t… or went a foot of two foul… or the wind kept an all be certain home run from going over the fence. But that’s baseball… I can live with that. What I have noticed lately though is that our positioning seems to be a little off. I have seen Freddie Freeman beat our shift against him several times in this series… which makes sense because he’s a great hitter and has said publicly that he loves when other teams put a shift on against him because it makes him a better hitter. But it seems like we have been out of position more times than not this series. In the 6th inning last night, after a flukey hit by Acuna and error by Kike, the very next hitter is Freddie Freeman and we have an extreme outfield shift put on him for some reason, where Mookie is playing closer to center field than he is to the foul line… a routine ground ball gets past the infield and goes all the way to the wall… Freeman gets a double and the momentum kept on rolling after that. Not sure why you would ever put a shift on Freddy in the first place… but it’s especially strange for a team to do it and then have the same strategy to pitch him inside… where he loves the ball and can easily pull one down the line.
    –
    Anyway… it looks as if the Braves are changing their game plan and making adjustments much faster than we are… whether it’s game to game or during the game, based on what we’re doing and what our approach is at the plate, pitching, and fielding… and that’s just good playoff baseball. We seem to be a step or two behind in this series. If the front office isn’t able to see what’s going on and can make the necessary adjustments, then you have a manager, bench coach, hitting, and pitching coaches that should be able to make the necessary adjustments. And of course barring all that… you have the players themselves that should be able to make these in game adjustments when the initial strategy isn’t working. So as many people have already pointed out… this was a whole team loss last night. You just have to hope they can learn from their mistakes and piece things together… and do it very quickly.

  28. Lose and everybody is a critic. Win and everybody rejoices.

    Not until one team wins 4 games will we be able to sort out the successes and the failures.

    Hindsight plus Kershaw’s back issues says the right decision was to pull Kershaw after 5. His fifth inning was as good as his first four. Not great but effective. 89 pitches through 5 meant Roberts was hoping to get another 18 pitches (that is what he was averaging through 5), out of Kershaw and finish the 6th with 107 pitches or maybe he was going to pull him as soon as someone got on base. Either option has challenges.

    Doc pinch hits for Joc who is locked in instead of hitting for Rios who is not locked in. Maybe a good decision but who could have guessed how much difference it made hitting Joc 5th and Rios 6th instead of the other way around. BTW Joc hit one fly fall to the warning track in center field and one to the wall in center field. Both balls were well hit and both would have been home runs in Dodger Stadium or maybe in Texas with the roof closed.

    It’s not over until it’s over.

    1. Our 1 & 2 are both 5 inning starters at this crucial time of the year. We are going to need the bullpen to step up.

      Warning track power isn’t impressive. It’s October. The ball doesn’t fly now like it does in summer. Adjust.

      1. Warning track power in TX is home run power elsewhere but point made Toto, we are not in Kansas anymore. But there is this slash line for Joc this post season:
        .412 .444 .588 1.033

    1. This is the real Mookie Betts. Post season slash, .240/.331/.364. That’s a .695 slash in 139 plate appearances. Maybe some folks just aren’t built for October baseball.

        1. Mookie’s overall play in the playoffs is not bad but he’s not producing against Atlanta. Overall his slash line is .273/.375/.424/.799 for this season. I’m not sure where you got those stats from, Badger.

          3. I understand, but the old stats are a reference point. Everyone keeps harping how bad Kersh is, and they have brought up the struggles of Seager, Bellinger and Pollock last year. Betts has not hit well in this series.

  38. Losing 2-0, 48 pitches in, two men on and nobody up in the pen. He’s saving the guys for game 7 I guess.

  42. May obviously scared to death! The whole team playing scared! The Braves confident and aggressive! May not sharp from the beginning! Every brave pitcher Cy Young! Dodgers offense will be hard pressed to score much less 2. May only 23 I guess should have nerves after the first ballot hall of fame got roughed up. Although we were 1 hit by a 22 year old. I keep thinking how can this keep happening? Dominate year after year and then play scared. Roberts starts Pederson against lefty again. Roberts playing chess while we play checkers. Kkkkk

    1. The announcers mentioned that Doc thought Minter would be gone by the time Joc got to bat. A bit of a miscalculation there.

      Sure, May must be quite nervous up there. This is what you have to contend with when you have 3 rookies in your rotation. But, May is definitely our future so the xperience should stick with him.

      Betts and Seager are a big part of our attack. Without Betts stepping up, our chances grow dimmer and dimmer. JT is our lone hitter today. The guy produces every year. He’s a model for all hitters to emulate on the Dodgers but somehow, there is a big difference between him and most of the others.

  43. This is a quote from Alex Wood before last nights game…..

    I think one of the hard things for this team and this organization is that you get so used to you winning the division every year, you make a deep run in the postseason a lot of years, you have a lot of guys that have a lot of experience in these types of games. And so that’s great, but also it can become, you can start to feel stagnant a little bit at least speaking for myself. Passion-wise or that ability to get up for a big series in a big game when things like this have become almost expected and normal.

    What kind of horse crap is that. You get paid millions of dollars to play a game and you want to talk about success. Someone tell Wood success is winning a WS, not winning a NL West crown. What an idiotic statement to make and an embarrassment as a big leaguer. I go to work everyday knowing I give a full days work for a full day of pay so I can make the mortgage, feed the family and he wants to say the team (at least him personally) might have a problem getting up for a big game. Lebron doesn’t have that problem, Joe Montana didn’t have that problem, Tom Brady doesn’t have that problem. Utter ignorance!

    1. Surely you can’t equate Woods with those champions you mention. It’s silly to even try. Woods makes a good point about the team feeling stagnant. Success is a loaded concept.

  47. Total paralysis.

    Question: What could be worse than losing tonight?
    Answer: Losing tonight and having Houston win the World Series (they just beat the Rays to force a game 7)

    2. TheASStros have outplayed them the whole series. Tampa is lucky they are still alive. I’m for Tampa but the ASStros should have already won the series.

    1. How can he insert Kelly into a game like this? This move is exasperating to me. Kelly is never a clean pitcher.

  49. Well looks like Roberts pretty much gave up putting Kelly in the game. Not sure why u take out May when he has only gone 2 innings. The defense let him down more than anything.

  50. I can’t watch anymore of this. I love the team, but this has become monotonous., Year after year the build up and then the let down. It just gets hard to watch. You know what you have to do as a team, and not one of those 3 hitters last inning protected the plate. If it is close, you swing to protect the plate and now Roberts brings in Kelly who is wilder than a march hare. 2 hitters, 2 hits, no outs. Atlanta came to win. Dodgers came to play out the string.

    1. If you love the team and you love baseball, you watch the game. At least enjoy how well Atlanta is playing. Don’t you want them to beat the Cheaters in the WS?

  53. How did the third base ump miss that call? He’s got nothing else to look at but that and the runner was 3’ off the bag!

  54. Don’t worry folks. Mookie and I have this under control.
    We had better score this inning or we can pack up and go home. That play should turn the game around.

  55. The problems are systemic despite the last 8 regular seasons.

    The offense is built to hit HR’s and SO are ok. Problem being is that with good pitching there are few HR’s and a lot of SO’s in the playoffs. Hence the HUGE disparity between the regular season & the playoffs, if in fact your offense is built on those HR’s.
    The defense is not elite – Bellinger & Betts being the exceptions.
    The BP, despite the stats is average, with NO closer.
    None of the SP‘s are lockdown starters. Not CK, not Buehler, none of the others.

  57. Just a thought, could Mark pryor be the problem maybe he’s not getting the pitcher’s ready properly.

  58. Neuer loose trust… But being Dodgers fan since exactly 1989 I am feeling myself the pressure everyday… its kind of curse watching them playing today as in the past years. Mays curvevall didnt work today so netter replacing him earlier as there are no more chances left ! But its still tight and Dodgers can hit just need to regain their confidence… DODGERS GO…..

  61. As being said none of the is protecting the plate. Quite poor hitting performance today while wondering about the regular season and game 3? Lets hope for the best and see them cracking their a…..! Still believe in a miracle. Greene makes it possible…?

  63. As being said none of the is protecting the plate. Quite poor hitting performance today while wondering about the regular season and game 3? Lets hope for the best and see them cracking their a…..! Still believe in a miracle. Greene makes it possible…?

  65. I don’t know why we don’t try to steal on the Braves catcher. Pollock could have tried. Betts had a chance early in the series when it could have been huge but no station to station. He doesn’t throw anybody out.

  68. Will Smith off LHP Will Smith – 104.5 mph, 35 degrees (404 ft Home Run)
    94.5 mph 4-Seam Fastball

  69. Smith takes two pitches that are balls but called strikes. By all rights he should have walked. Instead—Boom!
    That’s baseball!

  70. If it isn’t high leverage Baez delivers. Brilliant by Roberts to pitch him here! Give Doc some love on this one! Gonzalez then Graterol then Floro

    2. Maybe not there. But you do know over the the same span Lindor has 50 more home runs than Seager.

  74. V who’s winning tomorrow’s game? ASStros Dodgers baby! Somebody wake Bear up and tell him what happened!

  75. I believe Lindor has hit 30+ HRs. He might not have hit that one, but he’s perfectly capable. I know that the Dodgers have 3rd base candidates, but if he’s willing, I see no reason why Seager couldn’t play first base. It’s probably not likely, but I wouldn’t mind seeing both players in Dodger blue.

    1. I just said the same thing above. And I agree we can accommodate both players.

      You didn’t happen to teach history did you Bernard?

    1. .I’ll be burping up my pizza for sure. I keep the Tums handy when kenley’s pitching these days.

  79. Badger, I’ve taught science and math, and had a math license. However, I have a Masters in history, and originally had a Social Studies license. However, when I started teaching in 1969 Social Studies licenses were a dime a dozen.

  81. Badger, that Bernard guy was me. Forgot to add my Brooklyn Dodger handle. That’s what happens when I use my phone instead of a computer.

    1. I forgot your name but as soon as you reminded me I remembered. East Coast. Math license. Out here it’s a credential. I had a Mr Posner who taught history, one of my favorite teachers ever, but he’d be mid 80s by now.

  84. Wasn’t asleep I was watching ” The Meg” about a prehistoric shark. See they took the lead and Seager hit two bombs. Smitty too. See, by not watching they scored. I am a good luck charm. Heard from my son. His mom passed about 1{30 this morning from kidney failure. He will be in Okie City for a few days taking care of the arrangements. Buehler-Fried if they close it out. Need some length from him.

  87. Now that looked like the OLD Kenley. Gentlemen, and lady….DBM, there will be a game 6.

  88. Well, call me pleasantly surprised. Seager and Smith were great but it starts and ends with Mookie. Dodger baseball tomorrow!

    1. I would think that Seager is the team MVP this season. This is by far his best season and it may only be the beginning.

    1. Thank you Cassidy. My son and her were close. And my main concern is him. But he is pretty solid emotionally. She had been battling the disease for about 10 years.

  90. I have not had a beard in my 47 years of life, and will keep it until we bring a championship home. Playoff beard lives, go blue!!

  91. A very exciting win. The start was not impressive, but Betts turned the game around, and then Smith. What Betts also did was save Kelly’s outing. If the ball drops in, I assume that it’s 3-0, and it could have gotten worse. I cannot stand watching Kelly walk people. He is not close to the Kelly of that one great year for him in 2018. But we won, so that is great, and now we’ll see if we can somehow win two more.

    This rather ridiculous no off day arrangement has turned both series, and particularly this one, into an endurance contest. The staffs are worn out. And unless Buehler stretches it out, we are going to have to use five more relievers, as we always do. Atlanta certainly has the edge, only needs one win, and has their two best starters, who are pitching great, out there. We also probably do not have Taylor, as Roberts said that he felt some kind of a pop. It seems to be his ankle, I do not see how he can recover to play in either of the next two games, which is a loss, defensively, if nothing else, plus we have to put Hernandez in there. But we fought hard today after the first few innings, so maybe we will be able to pull off this very difficult feat of coming back from down 3-1. It is too bad that we got down that far in the first place.

  92. Taylor is down, Lux will be the added tomorrow, possibly could be a pinch runner late in a close game.

    Our pen is thin, but the Braves are gassed. If we can get Fried out after 5 then not sure where they go, Melancon and Martin in play but Greene, Smith and Matzek down and everyone else a crap shoot and will take my chances. We got this

  93. Great game by Dodgers. Contributions from so many players today to extend the series. Mookie, Seager, Smith, the bullpen all with key plays. I thought Dodgers overcome numerous questionable Strike calls on the night. Even on the Will Smith HR, the first two pitches were called strikes that looked like balls. But they definitely grind out the at bats and found a way to win. I should also credit Dave Roberts for some solid bullpen decisions, starting with removing May early. I would have left him in for another inning or two, and would not have gone to Kelly, but it worked well tonight. As many times as I criticize Roberts, he deserves credit when he makes good moves to win ball games. And Kenley looked as good as he has in a long time tonight.
    Hopefully, Buehler has 7 or 8 strong innings and the bats figure out Fried tomorrow.

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