The Dodgers will be entering the playoffs as the overwhelming favorite to capture their first World Series championship since 1988. They will start the playoffs as the best team in MLB; however, there have been more than a handful of Wild Card teams that have won the WS, and by definition they were not the best team in MLB for the season. But they were the best at the end. Thus, getting out of the Wild Card round will be the most daunting, especially this year. The Reds have a fantastic opportunity with their three starters in Bauer, Castillo, and Gray to make it to the NLDS. It is a bit comforting that the Dodgers will not face the Reds in the Wild Card series.
I believe the Dodger pitching is outstanding, but even though their numbers may disagree, I do not believe they are elite. As a team they are exceptional, but none of the players are at the elite level in 2020, and every one of them is vulnerable. So if the Dodgers are going to win, they are going to need their bats. I am not saying they have to outscore the pitching, but they do have to continue their 5-6 runs per game in order to ensure success.
For the past several years of playoffs, the stars have not always shown up. But this year, they are going to need to. Mookie is the difference maker in this 2020 roster, and he has certainly been better than advertised IMO. But the team will need at others to step up.
This season, JT has been his outstanding self, and he will be needed to continue in that role. CT3 and Will Smith had break through offensive years, and either one is capable of being the offensive leader of this team. AJ Pollock has shown again why he is a terrific run producer when he is healthy, and he appears to be healthy this year. Neither Cody Bellinger nor Max Muncy have had what they would consider a productive year indicative of their talents. However, October brings a new season, and both are capable. If one, or preferably both get hot, the team will score more than enough runs to win.
That brings me to who must stand out this playoff season for the Dodgers to win it all…Corey Seager. Corey has had an outstanding season and is worthy of MVP votes. He will not get it, but should be in the top ten. For his first three years, he was considered one of the top three SS in all of baseball, and then the injuries set in. He had a TJ surgery and a hip surgery in 2018. He spent 2019 trying to regain the health and strength he had prior to his surgeries. And yet he still led the league in doubles.
2020 has been a resurgent year for Corey and he has had to do it without his use of the video room which has been banned for in-game review. When not batting, playing defense, or in the On Deck circle, Seager was looking at video of his previous AB. While he has been productive throughout the game, as can be seen by his production from innings, he has been more productive in innings 1-3.
- Innings 1-3 – .333/.386/.753/1.139 – 10 HRs
- Innings 4-6 – .328/.343/.597/.940 – 4 HRs
- Innings 7-9 – .302/.397/.434/.831 – 1 HR
Corey takes a lot of time after the game to review his ABs to see where he needed adjustment. He has always felt comfortable going on feel,
“But sometimes feels are wrong,” he said. “I go to look at the film after the game, and I thought I was doing one thing and I really wasn’t. There’s definitely a lot of ABs that, if I had film, I would’ve been able to change things.”
If the players are allowed to view video during the games next year, Seager will be reviewing after his first AB and continue throughout the season.
Seager has reached base in 44 of the 48 games he has batted at least twice. His wRC+ is 64 percent better than league average which places him 9th among qualified hitters, just ahead of Mike Trout. Seager and Trout were tied for fourth-best average exit velocity across baseball.
Batting second, Seager figures to get up maybe 5 times a game. For 2020, his metrics for 2 outs, RISP is .448/.500/.724/1.224, so there is a chance that Seager will be coming up in a critical situation, and there isn’t anyone else the Dodgers would rather see, or opponents not see come up, in that situation. He doesn’t always come through, as nobody does. But he has been successful in that role. For his career, his metrics for 2 outs, RISP is .342/.416/.586/1.002.
Like many Dodger stars, Seager has not been very productive during the playoffs, but hopefully 2020 will be different. IMO, Seager is the key to winning the WS. He does not have to be MVP in any of the series. Maybe it will be Mookie, or CT3, or Fresh Prince, or Max, or JT, or Belli, or whoever gets overly hot during a series, but Corey just needs to be consistent.
Last night’s game was a meaningless game that the Dodgers were still able to win. Gonsolin had one very poor inning as he did last game. While I think Gonsolin for one inning can be unhittable in a late inning high leverage situation, he still needs to be considered for the #3 starter. I think the Dodgers can select either May, Urias, or Gonsolin as the #3, and they will be fine.
Sunday will be more fun scoreboard watching than another meaningless game. I just want San Diego to beat the hated ones. I do not want the Giants in the playoffs. I will be more than happy to take my chances with Milwaukee or Philadelphia or St. Louis.
Nope, the key as always is Kershaw and Jansen, the two in October have contributed significantly to the failure of the team, if they repeat their past performance the bitter history will repeat itself.
So there are two solutions:
1- Kershaw and Jansen now if they will do their job well, I have been saying that for the last 8-10 years and it has not happened yet, I hope this is the year.
2 – Roberts does the best for the team and minimizes the participation of Kershaw and Jansen in October, I know this is not going to happen so this has to be won with both players, it has to change its story in October.
Well Horse, the Dodgers have, will, and should continue to live and die with Kershaw. After all, not only is he the best pitcher on the team with an HOF resume, the Dodgers extended him for just this purpose. He is #1. He has to open in the first series. He has liabilities, though. And, we all know the history in the playoffs. There is no other alternative as all the other older arms are gone. The Dodgers will sleep in this bed until the younger arms mature to the point that they can compete. So far, they are good enough to start games, but we are not sure that they can finish. Doc will see to that, in any case. So we should see a lot of the BP in action, playoff time.
My verdict on the rotation is not as rosy as many are here. I think it should CK, Buehler, & Gonsolin. If not Gonsolin, then Urias as a 2nd choice. Gonsolin is a tenacious pitcher and has a very low WHIP & ERA. He also doesn’t give up HRs like CK, Buehler & May. May is still the future but I don’t think he should be relied on come playoffs. Urias could show up big time either as a starter or BP. Having said this, like Jeff Jr. said, it will be the bats that decide these series. They need to score and the HR will be the secret weapon that can win games. That’s why Joc and Muncy are still in the lineup. Either can change the game anytime. They must step up.
The pitching is the Achilles heel, not the bats. We have the weakest rotation in years. That’s a fact. No one knows what will happen. We look to the past which is a dead thing and rely on dead info to judge the present. The only think that matters is how the players respond to the moment which is the only thing that is real and decisive.
Nope.
The key is always luck.
I think the pitching will carry then as far as they go, but I also think that guys like Corey, Belli and Pollock cannot have playoffs that are as bad as last year. All of them need to contribute and improve. Corey is in a mini slump. 0-8 over the last 2 games. I do not think Lux should be on the playoff roster. Neither should Wood.
Badger likes Lindor over Seager and he may be the only Dodger fan that does, but okay for him (and anyone else who agrees). But when he says he is not the best SS in the division, I have to chime in. By the same standard, Lindor is not the best SS in the AL Central either. That honor is hands down Tim Anderson. If we are talking offense (and I am), then Seager is the best SS in the NL West, better than Tatis, Jr. and better than Trevor Story. He fits on the Dodgers. He wants to play SS, and if I was AF I would not even think about bringing Lindor in to play SS. That is a remedy for a caustic clubhouse and will absolutely make up Seager’s mind to move on. The Dodgers would not be better with Lindor at SS and Seager playing some other position and the loss of the players that the Dodgers will lose to acquire Lindor. SS is not a problem for the Dodgers. Yes Lindor is a better defensive SS. Good for Lindor. The Dodgers have won 42 games with Seager at SS. Lindor’s defense gets the Dodgers more wins??? I don’t think so, especially how anemic he has been at the plate this year. Seager’s bWAR is 2.1 while Lindor is 1.0. Seager is even better in fWAR where defense is graded higher. Mark do not make that trade for Lindor. He is not worth losing that talent.
There are 22 SS that qualify for post season statistical awards, and of the 22, Seager is #2, just behind Trea Turner, and well ahead of #13 Francisco Lindor. My three in order for 2022 would be:
Seager
Story
Lindor
By the way, all those who talk about the Coors effect, it did not effect DJLM or Matt Holliday. I am sure I can come up with more. But those two hit me right off the top.
I would not trade Corey for Lindor. If AF is hot on Lindor and can also keep Corey happily, this would be a great shot in the arm but this would have to be discussed with Corey to see if he would indeed change positions. Personally, I think Corey is too big a body to play SS. You need a quicker player and more sure-footed. The question is where does he move? Badger says 1B. Logically, I can understand this, but taking Muncy out of the equation and making him a fielder would do more harm, I think. Even without Lindor, I can see CT3 playing SS and Corey at 1B. Again, where do we put Max? I say trade him or use him as a DH. Lux at 2B? Is he really ready? I think many of us have doubts. Corey at 2B? Would there be any difference in him fielding at 2B? Not sure.
Possible Jeff. But right now I think JD is right on about upsetting the chemistry of the team. A change of SS might be made somewhere down the line, but i also think they are more concerned with getting the job dome this year. They need to accomplish that before they think about 2021.
I wasn’t suggesting this as something to accomplish now. It is just speculation for the future, Bear.
I get it. But why worry about that when the playoffs haven’t even started yet? I am way more concerned about what the guys who are on the team right now accomplish than worrying about Lindor, who is in the other league and involved in his own team at this point.
I would not make that trade for Lindor, but it would take a war chest to get him.
And why is that?
Ok, let me answer that for you:
It would take a war chest to get him because he’s an every day 5 WAR shortstop and about a third of that WAR is defensive. That is rare air and something you will never see with Seager. Seager is on his best day an average defensive shortstop.
Can’t argue against Seager being vital to the Dodgers playoff chances, but then again, he’s already been vital to the Dodgers dominance in the regular season and we’re just asking him to continue as he is. With the reigning MVP struggling all year, we still somehow have the best record in baseball and a lot of that is Seager giving us the lift Bellinger provided last year. Whether he consciously took on that presssure or not, he did step up when we needed him to. In other words, I think we have reason to believe Seager will come through this year. Entering the year, I assume Seager resolved to not get hurt, secure the 2nd spot in the order, perform better against off speed/breaking pitches, and deliver in the playoffs. I think he just has one goal left to achieve.
This year, I think I feel as confident in our post season chances as any since we became legit contenders.
*The young staff and whether Kershaw’s stuff can beat or neutralize elite hitting are concerns, but we don’t need our starters to necessarily go 6,7,8 innings like we to in past years (2017 excluded). Even four innings giving up 2-3 runs might be good enough. Some folks might include Buehler as a concern, but I don’t. He’s been our best post season performer over the last couple of years. I won’t doubt him until he gives me reason to.
*I worry about Kenley closing games, but Treinen and McGee can close as well and we haven’t had options in prior years – when it was Kenley or bust.
*We’ve already weathered adversity. When Buehler and Turner went down, everyone but Mookie and Seager were slumping, and Urias was drifting toward lost. They enter into the toughest part of their schedule and leave it with nearly everyone fixed. Remarkable!
*The trouble spots – 2nd base, catcher, 3rd starter. Taylor’s had a great year and should be taking over 2nd base in the post season. Smith is redefining the narrative on him and even Barnes looks better. May didn’t really elevate this game down the stretch, but Urias and Gonsolin did. I think there’s reason to feel as good about these positions as we’ve had all season.
*I’m mostly optimistic because of our offense, which I think has been our true un-doing in prior years, particularly against Boston and Washington. This is by far the best we’ve hit as a team in the last month entering the post season. I can’t even recall any hot hitters entering prior post seasons. Puig in 2018 maybe? We have quite a few players clicking right now, and the two guys in season long slumps are trending up.
*Lastly, who really scares you? I don’t believe there’s a staff we’ll face as dominant as the 2015 Mets or 2019 Nationals. An offense as potent as the 2017 Astros. Or a team as deep and well rounded as the 2016 Cubs or 2018 Red Sox. Of course, any team can get hot, but the larger point is I think there’s reason for additional optimism this year.
Problem is in a 3 game series there is absolutely no room for error. The Reds have a great starting staff, but no offense. The Brewers bullpen is more scary than their starters. St Louis has some decent pitchers too. The Pads are not sure if Clevinger and Lamet are going to be ok. It will be a wild week.
In the past they pitchers find the holes in Corey and Belli. Sliders low and in. They swing as if they are only looking for the heater. If they can fix that then they have a chance.
I agree with your analysis, Jeff. With Mookie and Corey clicking, we have the best 1-2 in the game. This team has so many offensive tools that someone can always step up. Dave Roberts was interviewed saying that the Dodgers’ hitters have been too enamored of the HR in past seasons. He says that they are playing their best baseball right now. I think if they can stay within themselves, not put too much pressure on themselves, the offense will take care of itself. I’m not worried about it. If the starters can give 5-6 reliable innings, they should be fine. I agree with Bear about the uncertainties in a short series. Yet, we have the tools to win it all. Hopefully, we’ll also have a bit of luck that falls our way.
The last time the Dodgers won, they bet a Mets team who had dominated them all year and they were the underdogs in the World Series which they played without their MVP (who was also the NL MVP). The Dodgers will win 42 or 43 games out of 60 this season with three regulars below the Mendoza Line, including last years’ MVP.
Uh, Mark, it is Beat the Mets, and the Mendoza line is .200, Bellinger is hitting .240 right now. Muncy and Lux, and Pederson are all under .200. But I get where you are coming from.
I like Seager as a hitter. I thought I was clear with my point about him at shortstop. He is now officially a negative dWAR defensive player. Those who cannot see the point being made should maybe take off the Blue glasses.
2020 is by every definition available an outlier year. When I compare and contrast I look at an entire body of work, with emphasis on the last 3 years as well as the last 5 minutes. In an an effort to improve the team I would always look to improve our defense. 2 nights ago we gave up 3 unearned. Why? Last night we gave up another unearned. Why? How do we improve our overall defense without upsetting the “chemistry”. And about chemistry, it’s my opinion chemistry is improved by improving the team. Bringing in a big personality, high profile leadoff hitter this year didn’t hurt chemistry much did it.
When I said Seager wasn’t the best shortstop in his Division I wasn’t talking about Trevor Story. The best shortstop in the Division is in San Diego. And he’s only 21. Lindor was rated the Top SS in baseball after last year, and in my opinion an off year like 2020 doesn’t change that. Seager having his best year since, well, since he came up, 5 years ago really, doesn’t change my opinion either. The only reason we are talking about this is the fact all three are closing in on free agency. Seager is ours so I expect we will make an effort to re-sign him. Lindor plays for Cleave-land so I expect he will be on the move. Wherever he goes he will make that organization better both offensively and defensively. The same cannot be said about Seager. Story will probably stay in Colorado.
And as far as Story vs Lindor is concerned I will just sum it up this way – Story away from Coors, .761 OPS. Lindor away from Coors .865 OPS.
In the regular season who cares seager, story, lindor. We have proven we don’t need them to win the regular season. Cory has been hurt on and off the 2 previous years and we certainly missed him. However, we need the shortstop who will show up in the playoffs. Which one can lead us to a World Series win? Seager can prove his worth starting next week.
Just want to put in a plug for JT. Without him, the Dodger chances of going all the way shrink a whole bunch. He’s the life of the party!
I am assuming that JT will be there when needed. He usually is. But for me, Seager is the guy at the top of the order that needs to CONTINUE to be the guy that gets on base in front of JT and Belli and Smith and CT3. I expect Mookie will be Mookie. He will probably steal third and home on the same pitch and win the series.
I could care less who our shortstop is in 2021 or after. This is 2020, and we need Corey Seager to help us win a ring.
I agree with Horse above; Kersh stepping up in October is the key. I already expect Buehler to do well, even for 5 innings due to the blister. We have a nice bridge (May, Urias) to get to our bullpen.
And I know, I’m a sucker for pain. But I want the Giants. So I am rooting for SF to make it, so we can beat them. I am also rooting for the Celtics to come back, so we can win ring 17 against them.
I know, I’m asking for it, but we got this!
I don’t care who we play in the first round because I believe we will win the first two.
That said I never want to see the giants in the playoffs.
Right now, they are not in. It is the Brewers. But depending on what happens today, it could get real confusing. If the Giants and the Brewers lose, and the Phillies win, they sneak in. And we can all watch it together because all of the games today start at the same time.
OK kids, season finale lineup:
Pollock
Seager
JT
Muncy
Smith (DH)
CT3 (2b)
Kike (RF)
Barnes
Joc
No idea who’s starting
Bullpen day. Betts resting his hip. 44 different scenarios for the playoffs going into the last day….wow….Those of You not wanting the Giants, if they lose to SD today they are out.
Looks like Buehler will start game one with CK going in game two . That’s a bit of a surprise.
VGon is today’s starter. He’s this year’s biggest positive surprise as far as I’m concerned.
Ron Roenicke will not return as Red Sox manager next season. Looks like Cora may have a job next year after all.
He has been good. But White has showed some in his couple of outings, and that bodes well for next season. Graterol has been fun to watch, and Floro has been nails. We all groaned when they signed McGee, but he has turned out to be a very important piece out of the bullpen. Good news is that if the Dodgers beat their opponent in the first round, they will play all of their remaining games in Arlington as the home team. No matter how far they go. That is important.
Not all of us groaned when they signed Jake McGee. I have wanted Jake McGee since he was in Tampa.
How is that a surprise? Look at the history. How could it be any other way?
I think the simplest answer to that question is the fact Kershaw is our #1. Frankly I’m surprised to hear Buehler is starting. He’s well rested, so, there’s that.
It’s not as though Buehler has been spectacular all year. CK has had a better season and Dodger management rarely considers his past post season performances when making these decisions.
I haven’t done the math but maybe it has something to do with how the rotation would stack up in the second series.
It’s not about the regular season. It’s about October production, and Walker Buehler clearly steps up when it matters, and Clayton Kershaw very often doesn’t.
The real ace goes in Game 1 in October.
Let’s face they will put kershaw out on opening day etc. but, when it gets right down to all the marbles they run buehler out there. Yes, who knows what buehler will do but that shows you the level of confidence in kershaw. Do the math on on the other series but u have to get there. Right now the Dodgers would rather bank on a guy who is not even in shape but has won big games. We will c how they spin it for the sake of the “ace”.
Hopefully, kershaw proves why he is the “ace” in the playoffs. I am hoping that buehler comes up big like he has previously.
I seriously doubt the Dodgers trade any serious group of prospects for another player so close to free agency, but I’m clueless.
A quick perusal of the team’s contract structures is really an ode to great baseball management.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/yearly/payroll/
I said prior to last years playoffs that Seager and Bellinger had to show up for them to win. Seager will most definitely have to show up this year. Will he hit like he did most of the season? Or will he swing over the top of back foot breaking balls and low change ups again leading to K’s and weak ground balls to first base?
~
As for the debate about his future. Just pay him. Pay him SS money and when it’s time to move him then move him. He’s a slightly below average fielder at SS. He’s no Cal Ripken defensively so a move is in his future at some point. I trust AF to handle it when it’s time.
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I don’t have a tremendous amount of faith in Belli at the moment but if he’s willing to control his emotions take his walks and drop a bunt down occasionally to beat the shift I think he can settle and have some big hits. If he can’t control his emotions and the strike zone he’s going to look like he has in the past postseasons
Pay him what? He’s had two good years out of 5. Ok, 3 out 6 in this the outlier year. Playing the devil’s advocate here, I want a better defensive shortstop on my team. Yes, I like his stick, but I’m thinking maybe he’s another injury from being a permanent DH, or at best a first baseman. How many more 5 WAR years are left in an 0 dWAR shortstop?
This is inane and silly.
Tatis Jr. is a .3 dWAR.
Lindor is a .4 dWAR
Are we really properly evaluating .4 wins above replacement?
I don’t think so.
Yes! Of course that counts!
I have absolutely ZERO desire to see the Giants in the playoffs. They have a way of beating the Dodgers when they need to. 1951, 1962, 1982. I cannot remember when the Dodgers beat the Giants when they needed to. The Giants are certainly not afraid of the Dodgers. Cueto and Gausman are more than capable of silencing the LAD bats. So I am rooting hard for San Diego today. If SF loses, they lose every single tie-breaker, and cannot get in.
I was playing with all of the playoff scenarios, and there are a bunch of them. Right now there are only two seeds in place in the AL: Tampa Bay (#1) and Houston (#6). AL Central 1st, 2nd, and Wild Card are still TBD. The #2 and #3 seed between AL Central #1 (Minnesota or ChiSox) and Oakland is still TBD. The 2nd place and Wild Card in AL East is still TBD. I have my games mapped out as to how I want to see them finish.
In the NL, the first four seeds are set: Dodgers (#1), Braves (#2), Cubs (#3), and Padres (#4). If the Padres beat the Giants (please), then San Diego would end up with the 2nd best record in the NL but can only be the 4th seed. Miami has wrapped up 2nd in the NL Central so they will be #5 or #6.
If SF wins and the Brewers lose, SF is in as #8 seed.
Philadelphia can still get in with a win over Tampa Bay, a Giants loss, and a Brewers loss. They would be the #8 seed.
Other than the Cubs, the NL Central is wide open:
Cincinnati is in and will go in either as a #5, or #6, or #7. They will not be a #8.
Brewers will get in with a SF Loss and a Philadelphia loss, either as a #7 or #8 depending if they win today and what St. Louis were to do in their DH with Detroit tomorrow. If they lose, they can still get in with a SF loss and Philadelphia loss, but only as a #8.
St. Louis has a DH with Detroit tomorrow and will have to play at least one. Depending as to how they do today, they could end up anywhere from #5 thru #8 or even out of the playoffs (highly unlikely, but possible).
I will have my MLB app open checking scores as I watch the Dodgers beat the Angels.
you forget 1997 when we lost to them at the very end
There is only one certainty on this site. Mention Cory Seager and Lindor’s name will come up.
I could see the Dodgers possibly signing Lindor as a Free Agent. I would bet they will not trade for him.
It doesn’t have to be Lindor, but I think we need better d out of our shortstop.
Somebody will likely outbid us for him. But, I’d make a solid offer.
Roenicke will not come back as manager of the Red Sox. Panda activated by the Braves. Dakota Hudson of the Cardinals to have TJ surgery.
OK, giants suck. Bring on the Brewers
If the Dodgers win today then they would be on pace to win 116 games in a normal season.
This is a very good team. The only fear in the playoffs that I have is the bullpen and Doc.
Ok, who predicted AJ Pollock would lead the team in HR this year?
Nobody. But I predicted Barnes wouldn’t hit .300 and the Dodgers would win the West. Bold, don’t you think?
I’m taking you to Vegas
For a Raiders game? Cool. Can we see Copperfield while we’re there?
I can now officially gloat. I said from the beginning that AJ Pollock was going to be good. And he has done nothing to change my mind. With his 2 HR’s today, he ties Mookie for the team lead. And he moves into 3rd on the team in RBI’s. I saw so many people dissing Pollock because of last years playoffs. But I saw enough last September to know that if healthy, and he has stayed that way all year, he would be a very productive player. Congrats AJ. His 16th passes last years total output by one.
I never said one good thing about AJ, so this is spectacular.
I withdraw what I said about AF and AJ.
Happy to do so!
My new fav player: AJ Polllock! 😉
Giants just lose
Milwaukee pitching is quite injured. We should take this series in 2
Yep.
Thanks AC. Congrats to my Dodgers and to AJ Pollock. Excited about the next round and will be rooting for them. Still don’t have all the games on who is playing who in the NL, but will figure it out. See? Maybe my cardboard cutout cheers helped.
I have two fears:
1- The story of Kershaw and Jansen in October.
2 – The defense of Seager and Pollock.
The thread is broken by the thinnest and these are weaknesses of the team, I hope the team scores many runs to overcome those weaknesses.
1. Kershaw and Jansen need to change the narrative.
2. The defense of Seager and Pollock is overblown.
Maybe. But we are not a good defensive team. Tied for 6th in errors, and below league average in fldg percentage. We give up way too many unearned runs. But, we score a lot so who cares, right?