We The Fans

As baseball aficionados we all know who should play, who should play where, what the best batting lineup should be, how to “correct” batting stances, etc.  We are all more knowledgeable than the Presidents of Baseball Operations, or the managers, or the pitching coaches, or the hitting coaches.  We have all played the game, some at advanced levels. But to my knowledge, nobody on this site has ever climbed the organizational ladder and achieved success at the MLB level.  For some it is a simply a diversionary game, for some it is life and death.

Advice is free and we all have it.  Most of it not consistent within the LADT community, but all offered with the utmost respect (most of the time).  Some say the bullpen is just fine and point to their ERA.  While others say it isn’t as they rely on career OPS.  Neither viewpoint is wrong, it just differs from others.  For me, both are flawed (and that does not make me right, just different).  In my opinion, ERA for a reliever is the least accurate measurement, because one bad outing can destroy an ERA for a season. Or a reliever comes in with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs and gives up a single allowing both runners to score, and the runs are charged to the previous pitcher. 

With respect to career OPS for relievers, IMO that can only work for the elite of the elite.  I say that because relievers are not consistent throughout the years.  By looking at career OPS, the Dodgers would never have signed Joe Blanton or Brandon Morrow, and yet they were exceptional relievers for the one year they had with the Dodgers.  Roll with the relievers that are having a good year.  Take Daniel Hudson as an example.  After a couple of very ho-hum seasons with the DBacks and Pirates, LAD signed him to a 2018 MiLB contract and he made the roster.  It was another of his reasonably ineffective seasons before he was shut down with arm issues.  In 2019, after signing with and being released by LAA, Hudson signed with Toronto.  He pitched well enough that Washington made a mid-season trade to acquire him for the stretch run. He was exceptional for Washington and was probably the most effective reliever for Washington going into the playoffs.  He was outstanding in the playoffs with the exception of Game 6 in the WS.  This year?  He is back to what he was prior to 2019 Washington.

Relievers are too difficult to gauge from year to year with the exception of the Josh Hader’s.  Many on this site did not want Adam Kolarek on the ML roster.  Yet, nobody is complaining now.    Well if they are, they are wrong.  If AF looked at career OPS for relievers, Victor Gonzalez would still be at USC.  Where would the Dodgers be without Kolarek, Gonzalez, and McGee this year. 

Some of us believe that pitchers prefer certain catchers, while others do not think that it matters.  To be honest, it really does not matter what any of us thinks.  Clayton Kershaw preferred to throw to AJ Ellis and Ellis became CK’s personal catcher.  Everyone knew it, and it was accepted.  That role now appears to be filled by Austin Barnes.  Psychological?  Maybe.  But whatever the reason, if Kershaw wants Barnes to be his catcher, then he should be.  Eddie Perez made a career by being Greg Maddux’s batterymate.  Was it psychological that Maddux told Bobby Cox, anybody but Javy Lopez?  Lopez was a 3 time AS, but Maddux did not like him behind the plate with him pitching.  Glavine and Smoltz were more than fine with Lopez.  Most on this site want Will Smith behind the plate most of the time.  Okay, but if Smith catches 4 out of 5 games, then the one game Barnes catches should be Kershaw.  Why should there be any discussion?  Kershaw has earned the right to name his catcher.

Some here are adamant about the importance of defense, while others do not see much value. The only attribute that matters to those is offense. I think that we can observe after the last several games that defense is critical. But for those that do not value defense as much, I would think their position would be that a good offense will score enough runs to offset a porous defense. That has worked at times lately, but that was against a weak hitting AZ team. Bad defense is not going to win many games against SD. I tend to value defense more than most, but not to the extreme. Otherwise, Jeren Kendall would be playing CF on the ML team.

Some here want Corey Seager to move to 3rd so the Dodgers can make a play for Francisco Lindor next winter.  The future LAD SS will not be Gavin Lux.  If Lux has a career with the Dodgers, it will be at 2B.  For those that want Seager to move to 3B, what they are saying is that they do not want Corey Seager as a long term Dodger.  If Seager is moved, he will not re-sign with LAD.  For some, that is okay.  For me and others it is not.  He believes he is a SS and he is going to sign with a team in FA who will keep him at SS.  At least for the time being.  Just like Cal Ripken Jr., and ARod, he will probably have to move later in his career. 

We will never know who is right, because baseball is a team game.  Who says Lindor is a better fit for LAD at SS than is Seager?  Lindor is a better defensive SS.  Nobody is going to dispute that.  But is he a better choice for the LAD SS? I guess it depends on what everyone values.  One metric I have always valued is RISP and especially RISP w/2 out. 

  • Lindor Career RISP – .256/.333/.408/.742
  • Lindor Career RISP w/2 outs – .212/.305/.293/.599
  • Seager Career RISP – .316/.393/.550/.943
  • Seager Career RISP w/2 out – .339/.410/.587/.997

Lindor is a better defensive SS, while Seager is a better clutch hitter.  Seager has traditionally hit well with RISP, but he kicks it up a notch when there are 2 out.

Is it Cody Bellinger’s stance that has made him one of the least productive Dodgers this year offensively?  Or is 2018 and the playoff version of Belli the real Cody Bellinger?  Of course we all know how to fix him.  I agree with most that Belli is too close to the plate.  It worked for Barry Bonds, but Bonds had the fastest hands in the game.  And Bonds was not as close to the plate as Belli currently is.  Belli has a long swing and appears to be incapable of catching up to a fastball up and in, while Bonds crushed them.  JT also has his back foot on the chalk line, but he opens up to the pitcher before he starts his load.  Every batter is different.

Justin Turner
Cody Bellinger – Pre- 2020

Check out a couple of rather unique batting stances.  One was a 10 year player and 3 time AS and one was a HOF.

Kevin Youkilis – 10 Year MLB – 3 Time AS
Jeff Bagwell – HOF

Perhaps the craziest of them all is

Alex Buccilli – Coastal Carolina

What Belli is doing now is not working.  Every once in a while, he can catch up to a pitch, but for a reigning MVP, he is not helping the Dodgers much in 2020.  He should not change his swing during the season, but he can back off the plate to recognize that he needs more time to get through the inside pitches.  He does not have to change his approach. 

My son turned me on to the attached youtube on a breakdown of Barry Bonds swing.  It is a 15 minute video, but it does have a lot of good information on Barry Bonds’ approach and swing.

We are all opinionated and well meaning.  We have different viewpoints.  We value aspects of the game differently.  That is true at the MLB level.  Different teams look at the game differently in how they believe the best way to win is.  Under the AF era, there is no question (in my mind) that he is the best at building a team for a 162 game season.  But he has not yet proven that he can build a WS champion.  With the addition of Mookie Betts, will 2020 be the year? 

We all have different favorite players.  Many of us get emotionally engaged with some of the players.  Nothing compares to watching your son play at the highest level, or MiLB, or college, or even high school.  But I still get angst when certain players come to bat or take the mound, or make a great defensive play, or make an error, or strikeout the side, or give up the game winning HR.  Some fans do not take the game as serious, while others live and die with the results.  And for me, Mookie does not have to prove a thing.  I will take him just the way he is.  And Seager, and Belli, and JT, and Ferguson…

But with all of the differences, we all still come together as Dodger fans.  There are so many opinions, because everyone who comes to LADT is an unquestioned loyal fan of Dodger Blue with an idea as to how to make a great team even better. It just is not a consensus of opinions.

And A Couple of Rants:

  1. That was as poorly played series that I have seen from the Dodgers since that 2017 swoon in August/September.  Poor defense, poor situational hitting, poor base running, and poor starting pitching. 
  2. When was the last time we saw a Dodger hitter beat the shift?
  3. The Mookie to 2nd and Kike’ to RF did not play out.  I am not sure why they decided to make that defensive allotment. This season is not over.  Only 3.5 games ahead of a vastly improved and very dangerous SD Padres team.
  4. The offensive problems remain very little run production from the two big power hitters; Belli and Muncy. Those two need to produce if the Dodgers expect to win a championship. They miss JT in the middle of that order. They have to find a way of manufacturing runs. Runners on 3rd with less than 2 outs and they cannot get the runner in? This is becoming a significant problem. Before Thursday night’s game:
  5. Bellinger RISP – 189/.333/.324/.658 RISP w/2 outs – .188/.350/.375/.725
  6. Muncy RISP – .152/.388/.424/.812 RISP w/2 outs – .133/.409/.333/.742
  7. Mookie RISP – .455/.486/.848/1.335 RISP w/2 outs – .556/.579/1.111/1.690. Clearly Mookie is not the problem with runners in scoring position, regardless as to what happened on Thursday. Neither is Seager.
  8. After 45 games, not one Dodgers pitcher qualifies for any end of season awards.  The closest is Clayton Kershaw, and he needs to average 6.1 IP over his last three starts to reach 60 IP, the minimum required to qualify.  The starters are going to need to start going deeper.  They just cannot turn it on when they get to the playoffs.
  9. To play off Badger’s Fangraphs numbers a little more, the Dodgers have two players in the top 100 in WAR: Betts #5 and Seager #41.  The Padres have six: Fernando Tatis, Jr (#1), Wil Myers (#20), Manny Machado (#22), Dinelson Lamet (#29), Jake Cronenworth (#53), and Zach Davies (#64).
  10. With the exception of Defensive Runs Saved, the Dodgers are one of the bottom defensive teams in several other defensive metrics.
  • UZR #22 – Measures fielding runs above average.
  • DEF #26 – Measures fielding runs above average +positional adjustment
  • ErrR #30 – Error runs above average
  • DPR #29 – Double play runs above average

Rave

  1. The Dodgers still have the best record in baseball, and they still have to be caught. They are capable of putting it into another level, but will they?

This article has 83 Comments

  1. So I hear that Dave Roberts does not know how to manage.

    Of course, everyone is smarter than Roberts – He ONLY has a .613 Winning Percentage! The only manager in the HISTORY OF BASEBALL with a better-winning % is HOF Manager, Joe McCarthy!

    Let that sink in! Spin it any way you want, but it is what it is!

    Whoever else you think should be managing the Dodgers has a worse winning percentage than Roberts.

    Then, some of you say: “But look at the team he has.” And then you turn around and contradict yourself by saying: “I think we need to blow this team up. They are never going to change. They will never win a WS. AF is a total failure. “

    I sometimes cannot believe the stuff I read. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball. They are a little banged up and two of their top hitters are not hitting (right now). The Dodgers are #1 in Power Ratings, but we need to blow the team up? They are 10 runs behind the Padres for the MLB lead in Runs Scored, but the Pads have played one more game. Blow the team up? They are #1 in Team ERA and WHIP. So, they should be blown up? Seriously?

    Where does that even come from? OH, yeah, I know – we lost a game to the lowly D-Bags! So? All teams sometimes play down to their competition, especially when they are cruizing like the Dodgers. I am not saying it is right, but it happens. They have been sloppy THIS series. I am sure that they are looking ahead to the ASSTERICKS. They get a day off and then they play Houston, SD , Colorado, and Oakland. The players are human and they sometimes look too far ahead. Don’t forget their record!

    Joc Pederson is not a favorite of mine, but now we know what may have been on his mind. Hopefully, when he comes back, he will free and easy! Bellinger and Muncy have struggled – I think one or both will figure it out before the playoffs.

    A word of advise: Piling on AF and Doc right about now is like getting this tattoo:
    Stupid

    I will say this: If this team does not win it all, it will be on the players, not AF or Doc! There comes a point where they just have to execute and they have to do that this year.

    1. Big difference between McCarthy and Doc is that McCarthy had more success in the post season, but the point is well taken. I think fans, and a lot on here for the most part, post things like that out of frustration. Myself, I am frustrated with watching the offense struggle so badly at times just to push a run across. Last night it came when Hernandez walked, and Smith doubled. Runners at second and third, no outs. Rios pinch hits for Barnes and strikes out on 3 pitches. All he needed to do was make contact and hit the ball somewhere, but he is not a contact hitter. They walk Betts, and Seager pulls the ball into the shift for an easy double play. Muncy struck out 3 more times last night and now has 46 on the season, almost 1/3 of his at bats. And what in the blue blazes is a .199 hitter doing hitting 4th? They moved Belli down, and he hit the ball harder after his single than he has in a week. But had nothing to show for it. How did their runs score? A couple of solo homers. May getting hurt on a liner back through the box in the first did not help matters. Wood was erratic, again, and the rest of the pen did fine. Gonsolin deserved a better fate. He really only made one bad pitch. The fastball up that Kelly hit. I always believe it is on the players to win or lose, but the fact is over their last 6 games they are 3-3. The Padres are 5-1. And they are the team playing a weak sister in the league right now. They will have played 2 games more than the Dodgers after tonight’s game with the Giants. Currently they have 4 more losses than LA. Lets hope SF can get one for the gipper and beat them to keep the lead at 4 games. I am not comfortable going into SD with a 3 game lead.

    2. In the big scheme of things who cares but playing the top RF in the game at second base because we might need him there later in the year? A team with Taylor, Lux, Kike, and Muncy? Unless Taylor is moving to SS and Seager to DH some might rightfully call the move stupid. The team has been sloppy for a full week now. Goofy lineups like last night won’t help. They better get it together or SD will kick their asses.

    3. The goal is to win the title, not pile up the most regular season wins. Bobby Cox’s Braves teams won over 100 games six times, and had four more seasons of 95 wins or more. Unless a coach or manager is overachieving with inferior talent, the measure of greatness is winning titles. If Roberts is such a great manager, why has he not won a championship? Because the players did not produce? But any manager can say that. Would you rather have had Bochy or Roberts for, say, the last ten years? How do you have the best record in the NL, win 106 games, and then lose a series to the Wild Card team, blowing a two-run lead in the eighth inning? Bad luck, or the players just didn’t make the pitches or plays? Would you have pitched Darvish or Kershaw in the seventh game vs Houston; would you have gone with Darvish, let him give up four runs in a couple of innings, then put in Kershaw to pitch four scoreless innings, when the game was already over? Darvish just didn’t produce? Like Kelly didn’t in the tenth inning in the last game; walk, double, IW, grand slam, left in for all of that? The measure of Roberts’ greatness is that he has won many regular season games in what has usually been a very weak division, and with a great deal of talent? Managers’ legends are written on great decisions in crucial games, not on outdoing Arizona, SD, SF and Colorado each year.

  2. I’ve always said it’s on the players. But Doc has screwed the pooch a couple of times. No need to go over it again. We all know when and how.

    As it turned out I didn’t really enjoy watching the defensive changes made last night. Mookie is ok at second but I don’t want him there. Put Muncy back at first and just leave him be. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I don’t think this is a very good defensive team. It played better early, but we’ve been sloppy for a while. The overall game last night? The box score tells the story. LOB, WRISP and another unearned run. Ho hum.

    I’ve already gone over Seager/Lindor. Each with 6 years. Career WAR: Seager 17, Lindor 28.4. dWAR: Seager, 1.9, Lindor 9.2. Clearly by numbers Lindor is a better fit, but I don’t know about team chemistry. My guess is the Dodgers would love to have him.

    The Padres are playing well. Well enough to beat us? Now maybe. Later? Hope not.

    1. Lindor at 2B, Badger. Trade Lux in a deal for him. I love Seager and if playing SS is a make or break deal for him, keep him there. We need his bat which is better than Lindor’s. We need a replacement for JT. Maybe not next year but there is no one who can replace him and what he does for this team. This is a problem they will have to figure out. Trade Belli for a starter. I can’t emphasize this enough. The starting rotation is falling apart. Covid doesn’t help as it affects everyone psychologically. Belli is not a max contract guy.

      1. I recall I was sitting in my office in Balsam Lake Wisconsin, on my WebTV typing a response to you in the Dodger chat room that I believe you were running at the time. . I don’t remember the name of that particular blog but I do remember that moment.

  3. AC your article made me think. I am not a fair weather fan. I root for my Dodgers win or lose. Do I get disappointed at a loss, especially one they could have won? Yes, I do. I cheer for all the Dodgers players but there are some I root harder for as I think most fans do. As far as Clayton choosing his personal catcher, I see nothing wrong with it as a fan. Hall of Famer Steve Carlton whose autographed picture hangs on my dining room wall had Tim McCarver in St. Louis and Bob Boone in Phillie. My son worked at the LA Hilton and got the picture for me. Batting stance? I thought Jeff Bagwell’s looked interesting. Wonder how he did with it.
    The game last night? Hope that May’s foot is ok. I was not thrilled with the Mookie 2nd base trial. I agree with others, what emergency? We have plenty of players that can play 2nd base.

    Congrats to Smith on his 4 hit game. I know we lost the game, but, I admire all those relievers who stepped up on short notice and tried to keep the Dodgers in it. Not a popular opinion to some on here, but mine. Nice home runs by Seager and Pollock. On to beating those Astros now.

  4. As always, well thought out and worded article – Kudos! May I add “amen” to your thoughts about Corey Seager. Hopefully the Dodgers, and Corey’s representatives are working on an extension that will keep him a Dodger for MANY years — at shortstop! It will not surprise me to see Lux move to LF rather than second base. I read that Mookie asked to play second base just in case he is needed to play there in post season. No doubt that if Betts moved permanently to the position he would become a Gold Glover there, but last night there were two plays that he failed to make that were similar to ones Kiké has made in the past. Then there was the “triple” over Kiké’s head that I believe Betts catches at the wall.

  5. My concern is the pitching. Pederson should return this weekend in LA. Turner might be back for the Astros, but is more likely to back against the Pads. They are down right now to 3 healthy starters. Doc says Buehler will be back when his 10 days are up. That means the 19th. So he could get 2 more starts going into the playoffs. May’s status depends on what they see today in the X rays. Sunday is going to be a bullpen game when Greinke pitches for the Stros with Gonzalez the likely opener. Urias pitches tomorrow. Sunday’s game is on ESPN The bullpen has pitched 23 1/3 of the last 32 innings. That is one hell of a work load. The depth they had at starting pitcher is suddenly not there. My biggest fear was always injury to the pitching staff and players who are vital to the teams success. As noted, SD will have played 2 more games than the Dodgers after tonight’s game. SD has 6 left against the Giants, 3 with the Mariners, who could play them tough since they are still in the playoff hunt, 2 with the Angels, while LA has 3 with the A’s and 3 with the Dodgers. Cueto is going against Richard tonight, then Gausman against Lamet, and Webb finishes against Clevinger. Paddack sprained his ankle last night, so he will not be pitching in the Dodger series and neither will Clevinger. Lets hope the Dodgers play cleaner defense at home. 7 errors in 3 games is not the kind of defense they are looking for. Right now, I have no faith in Wood to be effective. I would like to see what Gray and White can do. Especially against better competition. Next weekend in Colorado could be tough on the pitching staff.

  6. We definitely have the best team in baseball if the sole measurement of that is who has the most wins at the time that statement is made. But for the 16 teams who will participate in the playoffs, everyone will start even again (especially since there will be little home field advantage this year).

    I agree with Badger that it’s time to stop moving everyone around defensively and start playing the guys at the positions they are best suited for. That means Mookie in right. That means Muncy at first and, as a consequence of that, Belli in center. Certain players do well any place they play (Kike), but most like to play one position on a regular basis. For the playoffs, I think it’s important that the guys are comfortable when they take their defensive positions.

    Belli and Max could wake up tomorrow and be the hitters we all expect them to be, but until that happens, and as long as Fresh Prince continues to produce, he should be in the top 5 of the order every game he plays and Max and Belli should both bat lower in the order. The top 6 should be (in some order) Mookie, Taylor, Seager, JT, Smith, Pollock. Those guys deserve the most at bats right now. If that changes, change the batting order.

  7. I am going to criticize Doc when he makes dumb decisions. Why in the hell would you put Mookie at second and Kike in RF. Did that help lose the game? Probably not, but why. If Smith is not our starting catcher the rest of the season, then Doc has another problem.

    1. Idahoal,

      Do you still live in Idaho? I’m moving there at the beginning of October, can’t come soon enough

  8. Kike has been somewhat erratic at second this year. He has all of his errors there. But he usually is a great defender. Based on his glove alone, he should be the starter there. Lux has made 2 errors there in 10 games. Sorry Jeff, they are not trading a player who turns 25 next season, and is not a free agent until after the 2023 season for a pitcher. He is a .271 career hitter so far with 121 home runs, and there is not a starter available who is worth that kind of offensive production. He is having a bad season so far, and he is not alone. Trading him for a starter is just plain stupid. No home field advantage what so ever, and now the Dodgers are concerned because they are calling for a quarantine of family’s when they go in the playoff bubble. That is not going to sit well with new fathers like Pollock and Joc. By the way, anyone still want to get rid of Pollock>?

  9. I’d rather have Cory Seager than Lindor. I think people forget how good he is — forget Lindor. Just go with Gavin Lux at second. Give him a full season with a normal spring. See how he does. How many big contracts can you stack up before it hurts you moving forward?

    Not so sure I would spend a lot of time evaluating Cody Bellinger. A couple of weeks ago, he was hitting the ball really hard, some went out, others right at people. Again, as I look around the league, lot of batting averages are off. Christian Yelich is hitting .213.

    We shouldn’t place too much on 2020, a shortened, fan-less season with a disrupted spring training, no minor league games, health protocols, travel restrictions and all. As to the high inside pitch, simple solution — if you look at the charts and find your average is poor on balls in that zone, don’t swing. I’m more concerned with the approach concerning the shift. If the third baseman is playing short, just bunt. Automatic base hit. Steal second. If the defense doesn’t shift back, Bellinger will become the first .500 hitter in history. If they do adjust back, it opens up the right side. Win-Win. Right now, he hits a lot of balls into the shift. So does Max Muncy.

    When this is all over, get rid of the extra inning rule. That’s for use in fast pitch softball tournaments because of time restraints and teams play three or four games a day. End the half the teams make the playoffs nonsense too.

    Hopefully, Dustin May doesn’t miss much time. The Padres could catch the Dodgers if they avoid a short losing streak. LA needs Justin Turner back in the line-up. Just not the same offense without him.

    Where are all the AJ Pollock critics?

  10. Some questions on the game last night.

    1. I noticed that most of Bumgarner’s pitches were at 89 last night. Have they always been that way when he played for the Giants or did he lose some velocity after his shoulder problems? Just thought we should be able to hit him better.

    2. Can someone explain to me the DOH rule? Joe said when Smith went from DOH to catcher that his DOH position would have to be filled with a pitcher. That was a new one on me.

    Thanks.

    1. Bumgarner’s back has cost him some velocity. He was mid to high 90’s for most of his career. As for Smith moving to catcher, when a player is the DH, and he is moved to another position REPLACING a player, The DH is lost and the pitcher has to hit. If Barnes had stayed in the game, or Rios had caught, then that would not happen.

      1. Thank you Bear. Did some research on my own. I am usually terrible at it, but found out the answer. Thank you though.

  11. I just want to say that Jeff’s comment, the ultimate one, from yesterday’s post was the best!

    A great way to show the silliness and lunacy of some.

    1. I think there is a certain attraction in just being a troll, and I’m going to assume that that one, as well as the post above, are troll attempts. Trolling or sincere – still dumb either way.

      On a different note, was looking at the pics of different batting stances in the article. It got me thinking to the many unique batting stances I’ve seen over the years. I think things might be more uniform these days, but earlier, a batting stance was a little like a fingerprint. It was the player’s signature look. Some notable ones I remember:

      – I thought Rod Carew’s was elegant. It would never play today because it was an all fields, slap hit type of approach when power is coveted today. He held his bat gently, almost delicately, and wielded it like a scalpel.

      – Carney Lansford’s stance was the antithesis of Carew’s. While Carew was poise, Carney was barely contained pent of energy waiting to be unleashed. It was not a pose, it was frenetic anticipation. Somehow in all that movement, there was timing.

      – A lot of the Walt Hriniak disciples who used a very open batting stance.

      – Bobby Bonilla’s bouncing, hyperkinetic bat movement before the pitch

      – Pedro Guerrero’s early stance, with the bat almost resting on his back. I used to emulate that constantly in my back yard.

      1. I am NOT a troll. I am a long time Dodger fan. You may think my comments or questions are dumb and you have the right to your opinion as do I. Sorry they do not meet your standards. Have a great day.

          1. Ok. Thanks AC. Sorry Patchito20, I misunderstood. I know some of my comments seem dumb and I appreciate everyone’s patience in answering them. I was ready to take a break for a while. Never been called a troll before, but maybe I look like one as a cardboard cutout, lol.

          2. DBM, you do not ask any dumb questions. You are very much a positive influence on this blog.

      2. Stan the man uncoiled like a snake. Craig Counsel used to hold his bat way over his head. Ramiel Tapia of the Rockies has a stance that to me looks really uncomfortable. I used Duke Snider’s stance when I was playing. Worked for me.

    2. Thank you, Bluto. I spent a lot time preparing it, thinking it out, analyzing it, and talking it over with my special friend.

  12. I am expecting bad news on May. X-rays were inconclusive, is not encouraging. But we will see, of course. Buehler has been struggling most of the year, and as we know from Hill, blisters can be an ongoing problem. And we’ve got 15 games to go before the playoffs, and we are not playing well. We were lucky not to lose two out of three to Arizona, a team which does not have much talent left, and which made all sorts of errors, as we did.

    Yesterday I was going to write something about the Dodgers being an underlay in betting terms, as far as winning the title. Of course, it is easier to not win a title than to win it, but the Dodgers franchise has shown us that you can have what looks like the best team and yet not win the title, to the point at which, at least for the general baseball fan, it has become the franchise’s major characteristic. And it can well happen again this year, leaving us to look to next year, when it looks like we will not even be the favorites in our division.

    We have the best record, but we probably cannot overcome the loss of May, if he is out for the season, or even if he can pitch, but needs two weeks off, and may be ineffective. Dizzy Dean’s great career was cut short when after being hit on his toe by a ball hit by Earl Averill in the All-Star game, he came back too fast, and ruined his arm trying to compensate. So unless it is a very slight contusion, I will be surprised if May is a factor going forward, but of course this is not known yet.

    Oh, we still have our share of talent. But once again, we did not try to fill a need in the trading period. i’m not saying that we absolutely should have gotten Clevinger or Lynn, but we needed another starter. Even with a healthy May, we were going to depend on two rookie pitchers and another one who has never pitched effectively as a starter for a full season. A lot of confidence in unproven players? That, and the fact that the Dodgers will do everything they can to avoid having to spend money on veteran pitchers. Signing Betts was great, but the basic approach of the ownership has not changed very much. The Padres, a sort of a joke of a franchise for the last ten years, have gotten several name players, and that plus the younger talent they have gotten through high draft choices, has made them a major contender. Usually a team must supplement its homegrown talent with a few key pickups; that has been true of most of the recent title winners.

    Of course, we expected Price to pitch, but that loss had to be overcome. We certainly did so during the first half, but we are mostly beating bad teams, and not all that consistently at this point. We do need Turner back, and that can be a big thing, except that we don’t know how long he will take to get back in the groove he was in, or if he does not injure the hamstring again. I will say again that whoever thought it was a good idea to try to steal second base in that spot, given his history of leg injuries, was very foolish. But there we are. Last night we had Barnes stealing second, and barely got in there, and then Hernandez once again tries for the drama play by trying to race home, and so first and third with one out and Betts up, turns into second with two outs, and Betts ends up on the open base. Those two events are not related, but for a team which mostly eschews running, they were odd at the least.

    We will see what the prognosis on May is. If he is out for the season, literally, or one of those, “we’ll see” kind of things, we are going to be having some playoff games where the bullpen pitches most of it. I don’t see how we can get past four closely bunched playoff series in that way, and with the fact that our top three pitchers as a group are not as good as those of some other teams we will face. Offensively, we will need a strong return from Turner, Bellinger to somehow start to hit at least .250 with power, and hopefully less playing time for Hernandez. And we will need Urias to start pitching like the star he was always touted to be.

    Anything is possible, and there are still games to go, but this does not look too optimistic in terms of the Dodgers actually winning their first championship since 1988. There is always a narrative after the fact, and I try to imagine what that narrative might be, as I try to predict who will win titles. I thought that it could be that the Dodgers, who won a title in 1981 in a rather flukish way, in that they didn’t even have the best record in their own division in the overall shortened season, but got into the playoffs because they won the first part by half a game, might take advantage of another shortened campaign. And that certainly could still happen, but it may be that some bad luck, and our unwillingness to try to fill all the holes, because we don’t want to spend the money or take the long-term financial cost, may once again prove to be the thing which keeps us from winning the title, although that is rarely the story purveyed in the media, it is usually about this or that player not performing in the playoffs, or bad luck, or some bench decisions. Al Campanis always liked to quote his mentor Branch Rickey saying, “Luck is the residue of design.” Rickey may have been fond of pontificating, but he had a brilliant baseball mind, and this comment has always had much truth in it.

  13. I’m on board with Lindor. Close call but I prefer him over Seager. The bottom line with that opinion comes down to this – considerably more wins.

    Muncy. He works the count to 2-0 then stands there with his bat on shoulder for three straight strikes. Maddening. 0 for 5 and below .200 again. Bellinger smacked a single up the middle, goes 1 for 4 and raises his average. Barnes on his way to my prediction of maybe .250.

    May to have a CT scan this morning. He’ll be fine. Eventually.

    Trade Bellinger for a starter. It would have to be a very good starter. Got somebody in mind?

    This team has issues. Better get them worked out over the next couple of weeks.

    1. Bellinger did line one off of MadBum’s bum and hit a missile to the first baseman.
      ~
      I do have to say I’m not a fan of playing 3 defenders clearly on the left side of second base. With the first baseman only able to go so far off of first the hole is just ginormous.

      1. It’s the same size hole that’s on the left side against left handers. We’ve seen Arizona hit both holes a few times in this series. Push a bunt into that empty space and it’s a base hit. Singles may not be sexy but it beats yet another ground ball into the shift. Muncy.

        1. Interesting Bluto. I couldn’t access the first one, but if the RHH findings are true league wide then the question must be asked.

    2. I have no one in mind to trade Bellinger for. They never listen to me, anyways. Getting someone good is implied with trading an MVP player. Bauer comes to mind but why not shoot for higher!

      Seager seems the better hitter to me than Lindor. Lindor’s got the defensive chops, though. But one of them must be open to changing positions if we want both on the team.

  14. The team has a taste of adversity right now. We’ll see how the organization responds. The throwing errors are hard to fathom at this level. The big left bats need to try something different. Maybe a few bunts toward the huge hole at 3rd. It will be interesting to see how the pitching holds up. Time to try another kid? I’d say there is some runway for this. Wood has his chance. Let’s see what the brain trust decides. Go Blue!

  15. DODGERS ACTIVATE OF JOC PEDERSON
    INF MATT BEATY OPTIONED

    LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers have reinstated outfielder Joc Pederson from the paternity list and have optioned infielder Matt Beaty to alternate site.

    Pederson, 28, has played in 34 games this season, batting .184 (18-for-98) with six homers and 12 RBI. Last season, he batted .249 (112-for-450) with 36 homers and 74 RBI, setting career-highs in batting average, runs (83), hits, homers, RBI and OPS (.876). In parts of seven seasons with the Dodgers, he is a career .231 (491-for-2130) hitter with 129 homers and 299 RBI. The Northern California native was originally drafted in the 11th round of the 2010 First Year Player Draft out of Palo Alto High School.

    Beaty, 27, has played in 21 games for the Dodgers in 2020, batting .220 (11-for-50) with two homers and five RBI. Last season, he made his Major League debut with the Dodgers, playing in 99 games, batting .265 (66-for-249) with nine homers and 46 RBI. He has been with the Dodgers since being drafted in the 12th round of the 2015 First Year Player Draft out of Belmont University. In parts of five Minor League seasons, he is a combined .309 (443-for-1435) hitter with 34 homers and 218 RBI.

    1. I look forward to continued blind squirrel at bats with a home run every week and the conservation of energy on those weak grounders to the right side.

  16. With May’s early exit last night it became a bullpen game, so why did Gonsolin come in?
    That turned Sunday’s game into another bullpen game, why did they use Gonsolin last night?
    The logical thing was Julio on Saturday and Gonsolin on Sunday.
    Why?

    1. I was thinking the same thing DH. They’re going to turn Gonsolin into another Stripling. Using him both as a starter and out of the bullpen so that eventually he’ll become mediocre at both.

      Makes absolutely no sense to me, since depending on how the Buehler and May situations turn out Catman may be our second best starter by playoff time.

    2. just a guess. In the previous 3 games the Dodgers used relievers 17 times, so Roberts likely wanted several innings from one guy.

      1. They could have used Santana for that, but I’m thinking his roll is just to keep the bench warm in the bullpen, literally. Now they have to make Sunday a bullpen game.

        Maybe they’ll bring up Gray or White to start Sunday. They may need one or both for the playoffs so let’s see what they can do.

        The bullpen guys are going to be totally warn out come October, except for Santana and Sborz who aren’t ever used and if that’s the case going forward shouldn’t even be on the active roster.

    3. Roberts had told Gonsolin he was going to piggy back him with May before the game. They were going to skip Gonsolin’s next start. Now it looks like he will be starting Tuesday in SD. Roberts does not have much faith in Santana, and he must not have much in Sborz either. The guy has gotten into one game. Sending Beaty down was dumb unless Turner is coming back tomorrow. They still are short on the bench. Gonzalez will most likely get the start on Sunday vs Greinke.

  17. There are still those who hide under “Dodgers have the best record” seriously? They can finish the season with the best record, even playing this bad, but will they really be the best team? They are still hoping for Belli to wake up one day and become the MVP player, but that is not going to happen! Ah, but let someone not dare propose a trade suggestion for some other player or pitcher, because then that is a stupid thing to say! With potential to be a great player is not enough, you have to prove it, if you don’t believe, you can ask Kershaw about it. Personally, I prefer that he go with 3 hits in 4 at bat, it does not matter that they are bunt single at third, than going 4 – 0…..
    They say that he knows how to adapt to pitchers, well, we are still waiting …. Currently neither Belli nor Muncy are helping at all!
    I am one of those who think that there could be a trade for the correct player, and now only one comes to mind: Gleyber Torres. But like I said before, only if he doesn’t change his batting

    1. I said it was stupid because trading a 24 year old, who has 3 years of control left for a starter who is going to pitch maybe 33 games is not very smart. And I think who ever suggested that, is not playing with a full deck. So Cody and half the other stars in the majors are having bad seasons. Whoopee. Welcome to the world of Covid. None of the players had a proper spring. Cody made some adjustments that seem to have not worked. But you do not trade a power hitter like that for a starting pitcher unless he is a 24 year old Kershaw. Just makes very little sense. And, I firmly believe that the Dodgers have a lot more faith in Bellinger, and knowledge of him as a player and a person than any one, including myself, on this, or any other baseball blog.

      1. You are just guessing, Bear. The Dodgers haven’t a clue on how to jump start Belli and Muncy. They are in love with their power but neither seem to be real hitters and that kind of conversion is not easy.

        And, you trade anyone to get a top tier starter that you think is expendable. Both players, at this point, are expendable.

  18. So, let me ask all of you, you rather have the roster of our Dodgers or (take your pick) the roster of any other team in the majors? I think the answer is obvious. So, what team would you like to have for the playoffs? Again, the answer is obvious. Point is, they have a great team. Question is, will they step up in the playoffs? It’s not the 162 game (or 60 game) season that we care about, it’s the 3 or 4 short series after that we really care about. And, as we know, anything can happen in a short series. The players need to step up at crunch time and the manager has to put the right people in the right situation at the right time. I have been and always will be a Dodger fan and I’m hoping this year will be different. Maybe Mookie is the missing piece that they need–someone who rises to the occasion. Maybe Dave Roberts will go with his instincts and do what a great manager needs to do when it’s crunch time. We’ll see soon enough.

  19. Really enjoyable article that particularly resonates for me.

    The stranded runners left on base is annoying, but it’s nothing new. It’s been quietly discussed (sometimes loudly) complaint for years, but they’ve been winning so much it tends to get buried. This season appears to be typical of the last 3-4 years, where we’re basically middle of the pack with men left on base and in runners in scoring position. I don’t think it’s too crazy to suggest we’re as high as middle of the pack largely because we hit so many HRs, so the issue really exacerbates when we don’t hit as many HRs. So, in my opinion, it comes back to the two most critical components for the Dodgers: are we hitting HRs and is our starting staff pitching well? If we check both those boxes, then I like our chances against anyone. If not, we’re a different, often ugly looking team. I’ve just come to accept it and pray we start hitting bombs when we struggle, because it’s not likely we can morph into a small ball hitting club without a change in the approach philosophy – and that would have to start upstairs. Maybe in the off-season.

    It’s probably a topic for a different time, but food for thought since Bellinger/Seager long term deals are coming up and our hitting is a hot topic. If the team decides to ultimately commit to a less-emphasized power hitting approach, I do wonder about the futures of Seager and Bellinger. To me, they seem more similar than different, and I wonder if they’re potentially redundant. Both are aggressive at the plate, pound on poor pitches, good against velocity, and both susceptible to speed changes and movement. Both prone to hot/cold periods. Seager’s basically hitting the way Bellinger did last year thru the first half, whereas Seager struggled last year similar to Bellinger this year. Seager may never hit 49 HRs in a season, but I think it’s fair to label both power hitters vs pure contact hitter. Despite the faults, there’s a lot to love in the output, but is it best for the team to be commit so much money to two similar type hitters? I know calling them similar or redundant is going to be disputed, but just the way I’m seeing it from the LaZBoy.

    1. I don’t view Seager and Bellinger as similar at all. When Seager hasn’t performed, it’s been because of injuries.
      When both are healthy Seager is far more consistent and, because of that, I think more valuable.
      I’d like to keep both of them long term but if I had to choose, I would pick Corey over Cody.

      1. Exactly! When healthy (2016 – 2017; 2019 – 2020) Seager is consistently one of the very best offensive shortstops in MLB. And, his defense during those periods is above average (Fangraphs). I believe Adrian Gonzalez knew what he was talking about when he said that rookie Seager had the talent to be HOF.

  20. I did some research and found out the DOH rule in the NL short season took the place of the pitcher hitting, so then it made sense that Smith’s DOH spot would be replaced by a pitcher as Joe said. Wonder who it would have been if we had tied up the game though. Who are our best hitting pitchers on the team this year? Does anyone know?

    1. I think Gonsolin may be considered the best hitting pitcher on this year’s team. He played outfield in college and hit very well.

  21. Molly Knight of The Athletic made a point today that I’ve been making regularly:
    “But aside from the randomness of the best two-out-of-three game death series, there’s something else that makes the Dodgers seem especially vulnerable to playoff baseball this season, through no fault of their own: Outside of the Padres, the Dodgers have not yet played a team that’s any good.”

    They’ve played the Rox, Snakes, Giants, Mariners and Astros. They played the Pads before they rebuilt/reloaded. The ‘Stros are injured to the point that they are not good. The Giants are not really good – either are the Rox. The only other good team in the combined West is the A’s and the Dodgers play them next week for the 1st time.

    In the past few weeks:
    1 – The defense has been bad
    2 – Only a few guys have hit
    3 – The starters aren’t giving the team enough innings
    4 – #3 has exposed the bullpen leading to some really ugly games
    5 – And now, who are the starters? Kershaw, Urias, Gonsolin and ???
    6 – Hitting RISP has gotten bad
    7- Leading to too many LOB.

    For a team with a 32-13 record, there are a lot of things going wrong. They only have 2 weeks to fix this until the post-season starts.

    Ms. Knight’s conclusion?
    “Playing out west has been good for the Dodgers on the division title front. But the lack of competition might not do them many favors when it really counts.”

      1. I can confirm that, Ms. Knight told me over a cup of latte that she indeed reads LADT on an hourly basis.

  22. Max Muncy is a t shirt waiting to happen. Last night after he got tossed for arguing the last strike, Muncy told the ump he needed to toss himself for that F******** performance! Gotta love Max. I was waiting for him to hit one in the pool off the Bum, and tell him to go get it. But alas. He did almost run him over at first.

  23. Jeff

    I’ll address a few things you mentioned about me without actually mentioning my name. And that’s fine I like the discussion. Feel free to mention anything I say, but be sure to not put words in my mouth I hate that, and by the way you DID NOT put words in my mouth here.

    “But for those that do not value defense as much, I would think their position would be that a good offense will score enough runs to offset a porous defense.”

    Yep that would be my overall argument. But also I just don’t see any Dodger with consistently poor defense. And I hate when Doc starts someone that is inferior offensively just because he see better defense in the guy. I hate when Doc does that.

    “if Kershaw wants Barnes to be his catcher, then he should be.”

    I agree, but I want Smith catching otherwise. I want Smith’s bat in there as much as possible

    “With respect to career OPS for relievers, IMO that can only work for the elite of the elite. I say that because relievers are not consistent throughout the years.”

    That doesn’t make any sense. Some starting pitchers and batters are not consistent throughout the years either. OPS is a very good stat to use for both batting and pitching. I agree with you about ERA being a bad stat to look at.

    “If AF looked at career OPS for relievers, Victor Gonzalez would still be at USC. Where would the Dodgers be without Kolarek, Gonzalez, and McGee this year.”

    As for McGee I like his career OPS because I take away his stats from when he played for Colorado in that thin air and his career OPS without Colorado stats is good.

    I don’t know if Kolarek worked on something in the offseason to make him better against right handed batters (maybe somebody can fill me in) but his career OPS against right handed batters is a terrible .819 right now and is better than when the season started because of his performance so far this season.

    As for Gonzalez, can you say small sample? I knew you could. lol I just think that’s funny and it wasn’t meant for you specifically.

    1. Eric, you are correct, I did address some of your comments, but you were not the only one. I used your discussion points because you argue them very well. We have discussed most of those areas that we have disagreed, and I respect your opinion, even if I disagree with it. I am simply a fan just like you. No more, no less. If we all agreed, it would be a very boring blog.

      And I do try to not put words into others mouths. I cannot say that I am always without guilt in that regard, but when I do, please correct me. It may be hyperbole, but it is not intentional.

      1. Jeff, any news on May yet? I have been perusing everything, and no mention. Not even on the Dodger site. Giants-Padres postponed due to a positive Covid test of a Giants player. They are not sure if any of the 3 remaining games will be played this weekend. Should not affect the Pads-Dodgers series unless a Pads player turns up ill too. Clippers blew a big lead and lost to the Nuggets. House of the Rockets ruled out of the playoffs due to violations of the Covid protocols. Braves may have lost Acuna to a leg injury. Hamels expected back by next week. Dodgers players are not happy about the bubble restrictions and rules for family’s. MLB and the union have not reached an agreement on those yet. But it is said, MLB wants the teams isolated 7 days prior to the playoffs, and if family members want to be there, they have to be quarantined for 7 days also. Turner was especially vocal about it, NL would play in Texas, AL in California.

        1. I have not seen anything yet. I also will not speculate as to what no word means right now. I do know from personal experience that if the foot is too swollen, a true diagnosis is much harder. I injured my foot in a softball game and went to the hospital for X-Rays. The foot was too swollen for the doctor to properly read the X-Rays . I had to go home, ice it for a couple of days, and go back for X-Rays. It turned out not to be broken, but it was badly sprained.

  24. Unnamed Giants player has tested positive for Covid. Tonight’s and tomorrow’s SF-SD games have been postponed. No decision yet on Sunday’s game.
    There is a chance that the start of the LA-SD series on Monday might also be affected.

    1. Unless a Padre player tests positive too I do not see a reason why it would. Dodgers have no more off days until Monday the 21st after the Rockie series. So unless they schedule a DH on Tue or Wed, the Dodgers will be on their way to Colorado. SD has 2 days off the week of the 21.st. The Dodgers have one.

  25. Kershaw should be in sync with both catchers in case one gets hurt during the playoffs. If we get knocked out of the playoffs because Barnes is unavailable and Kershaw cant pitch to Smith, thats not gonna fly.

  26. If May misses any starts we will need somebody to step up. Gonsolin and White are the next on the depth chart but will there also be a call to Gray?

    With these pitching issues, and the unearned runs we’ve been handing out, it may come down to hitting our way out of this and that means Kershaw and Smith will have to work it out. Muncy and Bellinger need to snap out of it too. It’s time for this offense to turn it on.

  27. If the offense was clicking the Dodgers could do just fine with Barnes as his personal catcher. Right now Smith is giving them some of their best AB’s.

    1. Neither can throw out base runners very well. Teams with speed will and should take advantage of this like SD. We didn’t sign Grandal who was better at hitting and throwing out base stealers and was said to be the best at framing. To me, it tells me we are more vulnerable at this position than before. Neither Smith or Barnes seem to have any improvement throwing people out. Ruiz will only add complexity but he is insurance that neither Barnes nor Smith get paid big bucks so they save some money for a couple of more years. Yes, this is what it comes down to, $$.

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