It’s March 2nd and the Dodgers head to Korea on the 14th or the 15th, so it is getting late… very early. Miguel Vargas fate is sealed as he looks totally lost and is headed for OKC. Like Gavin Lux, his problems appear to be all in his head. There are only eleven more games (not counting split squad games) until Spring Training is over… essentially. The Dodgers will be in Korea for five days and then fly back to play the Freeway Series on the 24th to 26th, before opening with the Cardinals.
I believe that Vargas fate is sealed, but what about Gavin Lux? I believe that Lux will get two or three more opportunities, but if he can’t transcend his issues, I think Milwaukee and the Dodgers have already agreed on a deal for Willy Adames. Milwaukee has Joey Ortiz ready to take over at SS and Gavin Lux can slide over to 2B. I give it a week – Andrew Friedman and Brandon Gomes can’t wait much longer. The situation at SS is unteniable.
What Did I Tell You About Austin Gauthier?
He is a baller and a Grand Salami hitter. He will go to OKC and could see time in LA this year, depending upon injuries. I really like this guy. Of course, he is not a Superstar, but he is a guy who rises to the occasion.
Who Does Andy Pages Compare to?
He is a RH Kyle Schwarber with a slightly higher BA and much better defensive skills. 40-50 HR are within his capability.
Out on a Limb
Yes, I am going to go there and predict the Opening Day Lineup:
- Betts 2B
- Ohtani DH
- Freeman 1B
- Hernandez, T. LF
- Muncy 3B
- Smith C
- Outman CF
- Adames SS
- Heyward RF
A JP Feyereisen Sighting…
… and he looks like he hasn’t pitched in two years!
Fangraphs 2024 Dodgers Top 49 Prospects
Why didn’t they go to fifty? Go figure!
After Gauthier’s grand slam, Fangraphs moved him up from #39 to #1.
And Doc has announced he’s the new opening day shortstop.
And they’re working on his HOF plaque.
What’s that? Small sample size?
I do not think Austin is an everyday SS. I do not even think he is a regular, but I do respect him as a “baller.” Yes, it is a small sample, but I have seen him play dozens of times. He has my attention. He will play at OKC all year… barring catastrophic injury.
Chapman signs with the Giants, 3/54 with opt outs after the first two years. Sounds eerily like Bellinger’s deal for less money. Feyereisen was not very good. He looked rusty. On the other hand, Glasnow looked great. Ohtani 1-1 with 2 walks. Freddie and Mookie ofer. Gauthier has impressed all spring long. Mark, I think Lux has more time than you are giving him credit for. And Adames would be at most a one-year fix, he makes them righty heavy in the lineup. That trade is not happening. Former Dodger prospect Brandon Dixon retires. He was part of the trade that landed Thompson and two others in LA and sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox. C J Cron signs a minor league deal with the Red Sox.
River Ryan is now the #1 Dodger prospect on Fangraphs. Only two position players there. Rushing and Feduccia. Swaggerty has not been impressive at all. As a matter of fact, his defense has been downright awful. His base running blunder tonight led to an inning ending out at the plate. Gauthier has been very impressive along with Sweeney and Ramos. AAA OKC is going to be loaded.
With Miguel Rojas on the roster the Dodger brass is not giving up on Lux after a few poor ST games after not playing ball for a year. There is no agreed upon trade with Milwaukee.
Lux will be the opening day starting SS and he will play well. If he plays bad for a significant period of time (perhaps the all-star break/trading deadline) Rojas can be inserted into the everyday starting line-up and Lux can be used for additional pitching, but he is not being traded now.
Will Smith is hitting .091 with 1 hit in 11 ABs. Is he to be traded also?
When a vet like Smith has a slow start, I do not worry, because they are proven over the years.
When a player like Gauthier looks good in a short sample, I am not putting them on the team. I just have noted what Austin brings in the future.
Vargas is playing himself off the team.
What is different about Lux is that he has had the “YIPS” Before, and it has been hidden better at 2B, where the throws are different. Can he turn it around? Sure, but I have watched him over the years and I do not think he can get this out of his head.
AF likes Adames and it is really going out on a limb to say he might be a Dodger by opening day, but Gavin Lux’s SS defense can kill a team and AF knows it.
AF also knows that Lux is a fan favorite, so he has to let this play out in Spring Training.
I like Lux’s bat!
Not happening Mark. Gavin is faster, younger and a better contact hitter. Even more important, Lux is not a free agent until 27. They are not going to trade the kid after a couple of games. As for it being in his head, that is all guesswork. Only his coaches and the team know what he is thinking. He is probably more aware of what has happened than we are. He also knows that the team believes in him, and the coaches are constantly working with him. Adames has decent defensive skills, but the guy strikes out way too much, and he is not a threat when he is on base. They have 7 right-handed bats right now and 6 from the left. Nice balance. A trade of Lux throws all of that balance out the window. I have never heard AF say he likes Adames. When he traded for him, the guy was four years away from making it to the majors. So Freidman did not see him play any MLB baseball. All the trade talk about Adames and Williams is nothing more than hot air. You could fill a dirigible with it.
We shall see…
I heard the same thing about bringing Kike back!
Some things, I cannot tell, which is why I sometimes have access to information that is not “out there.”
đ
I stand by this one. Bringing Kike back made more sense than having Margot, but I did not think they would trade him. Whoops. But as much as I disliked Grandal, I dislike Adames more. My image of him his striking out to end the World Series. He is just too much swing and miss and there is enough of that on this team already. Besides, they do not need another RH bat, and he has reverse splits. Hits RHP better than left. By a lot.
Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote this yesterday:
“…I stand by what I wrote in my 40-man roster deadline piece when I said theyâre taking a risk standing pat at shortstop because Iâm not convinced Gavin Lux can play there.”
There are quite a number of baseball people who think the same.
On 02/05/24 Los Angeles Dodgers signed free agent RHP Dinelson Lamet to a minor league contract. Does anyone know if reported to camp because he was having Visa problems?
All I can tell you is that he is on OKC’s roster.
On OKC’s website, the face of the team is Miguel Vargas!
The OKC Dodgers are now called (temporarily) the OKC Baseball Club.
At the end of the season, they will allegedly announce a new name. Gezzz, this seems silly, unless they’re going to have some promotions for fans to name the team.
Imanaga vs. Yarbrough today at 12:05 PDT/3:05 EDT
Today the Dodgers are playing a split squad game at the Cubs at home and another against Brewers on the road. Both at around 3PM ET. Lineups for both games will be issued and confirmed shortly.
This lineup can easily absorb any of Adamesâ shortcomings to include SOs and being RH. As we all know, the most important contribution the SS position makes to a team is defense. AF and ownership have decided to, âgo all inâ this year so adding Willy to the team just solidifies that commitment! Gavin seems like a great person and is very talented BUT doesnât seem to be the SS for this team this year despite the small sample size this spring. Go FULL VILLAIN this year and send Gavin to his hometown team! Willy can pick it as well as any top defensive SS and can hit over 20 bombas!! Vamonos chico!! Itâs likely to happen for sure by July so just pull the bandage off already and pull the trigger, AF!!! Makes too much sense!! Good for Lux as well and maybe more than just Willy could come this way??? DW anyone??? Sorry Bear, gotta disagree with you on this one.
Eric, sorry to hear you donât want to post as much. Youâre not passive aggressiveâŠ.. youâre persistent on your opinions and nothing wrong with that at all. I enjoy your passion and more importantly your research that backs up your opinions and admitting if youâre wrong. Câmon brother, keep it flowing!!
VIVA AZUL!!!!
Well, thank you BlueAZ2020.
Adames is lousy vs lefties. He has reverse splits; The guy is overrated and a rental. Sorry, I would rather see Lux there, or this option. Move Mookie to SS and put Lux back at second.
Happy you have decided to return to the show!
“If Feyereisen looks like he hasn’t pitched in two years”, Lux looks like he hasn’t played in a year !!!
Lux comes from a serious injury that kept him out of baseball for a year, so the problems he is having in SS are totally explainable, he has to get used to the speed of the game and he will achieve that with day to day and as you say: ” this is just ST” or “progress is not linear” that also applies to Gavin Lux and James Outman.
Miguel Vargas has had that “slap swing” since June 2023, right now he is an AAAA player, he has to find his old swing and it has to be soon.
I think we were wrong with Miguel, we put too many expectations on him, he has a lifetime Avg in the minor leagues of .310 that must translate in MLB to an Avg of .230-.240 and 8 -12 HR, that is very poor for a LF
We all should move on from Vargas and all the negative conversation toward Mark. What I’ve seen thus far is alarming. Vargas needs to go to Oklahoma City , build up his confidence and figure out and demonstrate he belongs in the Show with the Dodgers. If not he is trade bait and the return will be minimal. Pages and Ramos have opened eyes to the Dodger brass this Spring and both have elevated their future with the Dodgers as potential outfielders.
This is not a negative conversation towards Mark
I’m just telling you that “progress is not linear” it also applies to Gavin Lux, he comes from a year without playing SS. Even if at the end of Spring Training he is not yet ready, he could go to the minor leagues to recover, especially, the speed of the game in defense.
Vargas needs to be in AAA regardless of what he does in Spring Training. The Dodgers roster is pretty much set, and he’s not a part of the plan (this year). The best thing for him is to grind it out at AAA, get plenty of reps in left field, and, hopefully, with Teoscar moving on after this year, he can be the 2025 starting left fielder.
3:05 PM ET vs Cubs at Glendale
Cubs (4-3))
Dodgers (6-2-1))
SP Shota Imanaga L
0-0 .00 ERA
SP Ryan Yarbrough L
0-0 .00 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
SS Miguel Rojas R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
LF T. Hernandez R
CF Andy Pages R
DH Ryan Ward L
2B A. Gauthier R
RF Drew Avans L
71° Wind 10 mph Out
3:10 PM ET vs Brewers away in Phoenix
Dodgers (6-2-1)
Brewers (2-5)
SP Kyle Hurt R
0-0 .00 ERA
SP Janson Junk R
0-0 .00 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
SS Gavin Lux L
DH E. Hernandez R
CF James Outman L
3B Chris Taylor R
C A. Barnes R
2B Chris Owings R
LF M. Vargas R
RF Jose Ramos R
1B Kevin Padlo R
Minor League Batting averages:
Ronald Acuna – .303
Austin Riley – .283
Freddie Freeman – .303
Minor league stats mean something, but not everything.
He still has exceptional bat-to-ball skills and surprising power. He has to go back to AAA and figure it out.
I still expect good things from him.
I also expect good things from Lux… just not at SS.
If not at SS, are you expecting Lux to:
1) have his career in a different uniform
2) switch spots with Mookie
3) Mookie back to RF and Lux to 2B
4) go back to the outfield
5) something else I haven’t thought of
I donât think Mookie is moving. He is not a big guy and I am sure he gets worn down in the outfield.
I would be fine with Lux in LF but I donât think they want to convert him.
I can only see #1 being a possibility. He would move to 2B in Milwaukee. He has throwing issues there but not as pronounced.
Vargas may also need a fresh start – we might learn more today.
Me big, strong ballplayer! Me never get worn down!
Only little player get worn down!
Yogi Berra get worn down! Pedro Martinez get worn down!
Mookie Betts not big guy! Get worn down, unless he play 2B! Then he fine!
But seriously, folks… where does this physical profiling come from? There are so many players who don’t fit the stereotype? Dodgers just made a $300m+ commitment to a pitcher who is smaller than Pedro.
Cey was not a big guy at 3B. Garvey was a short first baseman.
Betts has played most of his career at 5-9, 175 and is on a Hall of Fame path.
If Lux doesn’t work out at SS, the Dodgers could consider flopping him and Mookie.
More likely: the team could just play Rojas. A platoon could be considered.
With Rojas in the lineup in ’23, the Dodgers still had the game’s second best offense. And the ’24 lineup will still be much stronger with Shohei and Teoscar instead of JD Martinez and Peralta.
âGiants new manager, Bob Melvin has brought a bunch of rules to the Giants during the spring, most notably around the national anthem. Melvin is requiring every single person who could be in the Giants dugout for a game â players, coaches, trainers and even the bat boys â to be on the field for the anthem.â –
Interesting. It’s refreshing, actually, but I wonder if he’ll get any pushback from the SF media and fan base. San Francisco’s culture isn’t particularly patriotic.
Pages playing CF
LOL! When I see Mark’s ongoing relationship with Lux I can’t help but think of some supervillain in some James Bond (or Austin Powers) movie pulling a lever to a trap door so one of his subordinates dies a slow and agonizing death over some trivial mistake. Stalin was more loyal to his generals than Mark is to Lux.
Lux’s first throwing error:
“It’s just one throw. You can’t make anything of it.”
Lux’s second throwing error:
“Lux is gone. An Adames trade is already in the works. The deal is as good as done. See! I told you!”
Imagine the pressure on poor Outman to not strike out against a lefty. I wonder if Vargas runs out an infield hit on a slow dribbler to third whether he’ll be re-anointed as the next Tony Gwynn.
Outman is fine. He will play 75% of the time in CF – whether he strikes out a lot or not.
Kike is his caddy.
The Dodgers are all in this season, but I do not believe Lux is a championship caliber. SS.
I like his bat. I didnât kill anyone or call him a moron. Whatâs wrong with that?
I’m just playing around. Lux is not a great defensive SS. If he turns out to be a bust there, the Dodgers will deal with that when the time comes. I think they’ll give him a longer opportunity to either sink or swim at that position before they do a dope fiend move.
Seager was never a great defensive SS for the Dodgers. He made up for it with his bat. I think Lux has the potential to make up for it with his bat.
If they trade for a SS at all, I doubt they do so before the trade deadline. And if they do, why trade for Adames? There are other SS out there who will be on the block. According to MLBTR, Giants still interested in Snell. Still have to sign in to post Mark……..
I thought I had it fixed. Let me check again.
Thank you, Mark. By the way, Lux 3-4 with an RBI and Outman 3-3 with a three-run homer. Owings and Outman both have 2 steals. In the game at Camelback, Pages 2-3 with a long 3 run shot. Avans with a 3 run double. Padlo with a 3-run shot at Maryville. Swaggerty plunked in the head on the next pitch. Not fixed yet.
Wait, don’t RHP make up 75% of all pitchers? LHP 25%? Platoon you say? NOOOOOOOOOOPE.
Kike is Heyward’s caddy. Don’t you remember Heyward?
The way this offense and pitching is stacked, Lux could make 1,000 errors at SS and it wouldn’t hurt the team. lol.
Gametime. See Y’all later.
Very fast hands from Pagés, impressive !!!
Andy Pages with a three run homer,his 2nd of the Spring in the game against the Cubs today in Glendale. He could be a factor if an outfielder goes down . To think Artie Moreno rejected the trade that would have sent Pages to the Angels in 2020.
I guess Vargas has hit a ball hard. Solo homer today.
Lux 3-3 so far
Vargas is 3-3 with a HR, double and single. A triple away from the cycle.
His bat speed and power looks pretty dang good.
Still going to start the year at AAA.
Vargas bat speed today was 10x better than in any other game.
Classic baseball: Breaks a slump with a check-swing single.
De Paula with a 2-run blast.
Padlo homered today too. Brasier got knocked around for 3 runs by the Cubs.
What a day! Lux, Outman and Vargas! If Outman stops striking out, the skies the limit! Glad for the young guns. And Rooney is making a move
Well, he is not going to stop striking out, but I would like to see him cut down on his strikeouts by 10-15%.
He still can’t hit LHP, but that is OK. Kike can!
One of his hits was off of a lefty. Outman is 3-6 off of lefties this spring with a homer and a double. Only 2 of his 6 K’s have come against lefties. He is slashing .429/.556/.929 this spring with an OPS of 1.485. Not too shabby. Two games, two wins, 5 homers, 4 hit by guys not expected to make the 26-man. 8 runs given up and 19 scored. Not a bad day at the office. Freddie is hitting .167, Smith, .071. Pages has 8 driven in. Ward is second with 6. Avans, Padlo, and Okey have 5. Kike has not faced a lefty yet.
“Outman is 3-6 off of lefties this spring with a homer and a double. Only 2 of his 6 Kâs have come against lefties. He is slashing .429/.556/.929 this spring with an OPS of 1.485. Not too shabby.”
^^^^^ What Bear said about Outman.
Good signs… Maybe there won’t be the dreaded sophomore slump.
Pages has been impressive. On an average team, he might be a starter. On this team, he’s down in OKC.
Rooney is really interesting and a lefty. Lots of people who know more than you and I say the Dodgers still see him as a possible starter, so maybe he goes down no matter what.
I also like Gowdy with his crazy windup.
Just saw there were 2 games. How did DePaula look. And Pages looking like a guy who wants to be the Dodgers future RFer. Or sooner!
DePau;a hit a bomb and Pages is breaking down the door.
I like Singing the Blue’s option #2–Switch Mookie and Lux.. Mookie is a great athlete who moved to 2nd with no hiccups. His arm is certainly strong enough and I don’t think his size (5’9″, 180lbs) is a negative. Ozzie Smith was 5’11”,, 150l lbs, How did that work out? At least no one will complain that he is too big to play shortstop like you-know-who always says about Seager.
Great spring training start for the Dodgers. My takeaway is that our minor league position players are much better than the other teams’ minor league pitchers. We’re really tough in the last half of the games when all the scrubs are playing. Not complaining–it just emphasizes the depth of the Dodgers as well as the development of their players.
I brought that up weeks ago. Mookie is certainly an option over there. Strong arm, and quick reflexes. Maury Wills was not exactly a giant. And he was not nearly as good a fielder as Mookie is.
The Dodgers are 100% committed to Mookie at 2B. It ainât happening.
I get that, but he could easily make the switch if they wanted to.
White Sox, Cleveland and the Royals are the only teams in the AL without a former Dodger on the 40-man. Giants and Colorado the only teams in the NL without a former Dodger on the 40-man. About 12 exe Dodgers on the Non-roster lists.
The Dodgers don’t need Rojas. Lux, Betts, Taylor, Kike can all play SS and 2B. Taylor and Kike can play 3B. Gauthier will be down there in the minors, if it goes that far for a call up.
Why not trade Rojas for a prospect and have Pages as Heyward’s platoon partner and fill in for Teo H and Outman on their days off and pinch hit too. That’s enough at bats to go around for Pages. I’d rather have a homegrown that obviously will hit better than Rojas, since Rojas has the bar set so low.
I really don’t think Kike should be Heyward’s platoon partner. Kike’s stats against LHP have gone down since 2018 except 2021. Even Taylor would be a better fit in that spot considering he’s hit LHP better than Kike in that span.
Their’s versatility in the outfield that it could work out.
But then again, who cares, the offense is stacked.
Just my 2 cents.
They do not have anyone who plays defense at SS at the level Rojas does. Pages has shown some skills, but the guy has never played more than a handful of games at AA. He was out most of last year, and I seriously doubt he is ready quite yet for full time duty in the majors. But I do think he is an option for 25. He might see some big-league time this year, but only if someone is injured. Kike is not just going to be a platoon partner for Heyward. He will be all over the field and probably will even get a few games at third and SS. They can field 7 RH hitters against lefties. Rojas’s bat is of little consequence. As you said, this offense is loaded. Kike is not a really good right fielder. He is better in left and center.
I think it really does not matter what Vargas does between now and opening day. I still think he is going to have to go to AAA and hone his game. He has at bats like today, where he looks like an All-Star, and then the games before today’s where he looks like he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat. These are the 13 position players who will be heading to Korea. Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, Outman, Heyward, Lux, the Hernandez boys, Smith, Barnes, Taylor, Rojas, Betts. Sheehan won’t be ready to open the season. I think the five starters will be, Yamamoto, Miller, Glasnow, Paxton and Stone. Yarbrough will be in the pen as a long man and the 5th starter option if Stone is not picked. Buehler, and Kershaw will go on the IL when the season starts. The eight pen arms? Graterol, Phillips, Kelly, Trienen, Brasier, Vesia, Hudson, and one of Hurt, Vanasco, or Gage.
I think you are pretty close with your roster predictions, Bear.
Vargas needed those hits yesterday DESPERATELY for his confidence.
Pages is on a mission knocking down the door. If he keeps this up you probably have to roll with him out of the gate.
There are voices who say Striker is hitting 96.97 mph with his heater. That would be huge.
dePaula has such a sweet and easy swing. That HR was a beauty.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!