Here’s Johnny!

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1. Okay, after reading your comments for the past few months, I get the feeling you don’t like Lux at short, never have, probably never will. Now with the knee injury, you like him even less.

   But Adames? Just another low average guy with some power, who is one year away from free agency, right? Maybe you’re right and he puts up big numbers or he has another 2023. I’d rather stick with Lux.

   A trade for Burnes is fine, if they can pull it off without giving up prospects like Sheehan. The Dodgers have some pretty good prospects, certainly can offer a package to acquire a quality pitcher without giving up potential young starters, who could make big contributions this coming season.

   If the Dodgers acquire Cease, I’m guessing they look at his upside moving forward. Burnes would probably be a one and done. Maybe Buehler walks too. There goes the experienced starting pitching approach.

   Maybe Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin bounce back in 2025. May could be special if he stays healthy. If …

   The only thing I’m really sure of right now is the Dodgers need experienced high level starters, plus Ohtani.

   I’m guessing Vargas or Busch gets traded in a significant deal, the other becomes a regular for the Dodgers in 2024, infield or outfield.

   Thanks for keeping this site interesting, Mark.

   1. You are welcome!

      I have never ever thought that Lux could be a SS. Andrew Friedman is playing poker and is bluffing. I do not believe he thinks that as well… but we shall see!

      It’s my job to think outside the box… in fact, there is no box!

      I like Gavin Lux and hate to give him up, but Lux and Sheehan (while good players) are acceptable to me for Adames and Burnes. Shortstops who put up .800+ OPS are not the norm. Trea Turner who is almost three years older than Adames has done it 7 times. Adames has done it 3.

      Here’s a good read on 3 Free Agents worth considering:

      https://www.mlb.com/news/under-the-radar-free-agents-2023-24?partnerId=zh-20231125-1100329-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20231125-1100329-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=O%2BkBF9Dvh2%2Ftwh5aW8v8QsVoO1CONccpuANa2CzlIjXOThh5IVCkBBEbxR4QGdzI&bt_ts=1700921365041

      More good rumors:
      https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rumors-trades-and-signings?partnerId=zh-20231125-1100329-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20231125-1100329-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=O%2BkBF9Dvh2%2Ftwh5aW8v8QsVoO1CONccpuANa2CzlIjXOThh5IVCkBBEbxR4QGdzI&bt_ts=1700921365041

      1. I hope you weren’t including Joc in there. Maeda is over the hill and on the downside. Spent more time on the IL the last couple of years. Duvall and Garver, a hearty yes.

      2. AF wasn’t bluffing about Lux at SS. Right now, he’s the most likely guy to start the season at SS, but I wouldn’t rule out Adames as a possibility. AF has been an Adames fan for years.
         But Lux would have been the SS if not for the injury. He played the position all through the minors and the brass believed in his ability. Miguel Rojas was signed as a UT backup.
         Just to compare recent rookie position guys: Although Lux had a slow start in his career, he certainly did better than Miguel Vargas–though not nearly as well as James Outman. Let’s leave Busch out since he really hasn’t had much “runway” at all.
         Speaking of Outman, I’m puzzled that you left him out of that last lineup you suggested. Instead, you have Busch in LF and a platoon of Heyward/DeLuca in LF too. But no CF at all.
         I double-checked to make sure you didn’t have Lux replacing Outman in center….

2. Buehler’s likely gone in 2025.

   1. I have no expectations with Buehler, but I am interested in how he rebounds from the TJ surgery. Medical science advances every year, so we have never seen someone like Walker come back with the latest medical techniques. He will either be better, worse or the same as he was before.

      If he is better or the same, the Dodgers will certainly try and re-sign him. He won’t be 30 until July. But, we have to see how it plays out.

3. One thing I love about you Mark is that you stick to your guns. I do not trade Lux and anyone for two rentals. Yes, I want Cease for a couple of reasons, A, he is two years younger and can still improve a lot. He was second in the Cy Young vote in 22. B. Prior is a miracle worker with mechanical problems with pitchers, and with Cease, that might be all he needs. If they can get Burnes without giving up Lux, fine. I think Lux is a better hitter than Adames, and a lot better runner with more speed. And the Dodgers are a lumbering team. They need speed. Duke not Snider, in one of your last posts you said the Dodgers should sign Snell and Chapman. Now, if you were serious, here is the problem with that. If the Dodgers in fact, are targeting Ohtani, and they do sign him, it is going to cost them two draft picks and 1 million dollars in international pool money. Now, if they sign another free agent who turned down his QO, they lose another two draft picks. So if they sign two guys who had QO’s, doesn’t matter who, they lose 1 million, and their second, third fifth and sixth picks in the June draft. Not happening. We all know how much they value the picks. They might give up two to land Ohtani, but not Snell or Chapman. And Chapman for all his great defense, is a strikeout machine like Muncy. Snell is a five inning pitcher.

   1. Which is why I remain skeptical they will sign Ohtani!

4. Ohtani will be a Dodger soon whether the participants on this site like it or not. West Coast, Weather and Winning is the formula for Ohtani to sign a contract with the Dodgers. It’s not my money so whatever ownership deems reasonable for a once in a lifetime superstar is alright with me. Ownership is smarter than all of us.He will not hamper the payroll because the Dodgers will generate millions from his presence. The Japanese fan base from the Angels will follow him right to Dodger Stadium. We don’t have an International Super Star on our roster but that will change soon and many more will follow. The Dodgers have hired an individual just for that purpose. Get ready, he’s coming.

   1. It’s true.

      Poorly kept industry secret.

5. Great article Mark.
   I also would prefer Burnes over Cease. Your comparison is informative and clearly Burnes has been the better pitcher. Burnes played at St Mary’s where Gonsolin played and was born in Bakersfield so he would likely prefer playing for the Dodgers.
   I am not as bullish on Adames. He hit 217 last year with an OPS of 717. The prior year his OPS was 756 with on base % of 298.
   He actually has only had one full year above 800 OPS at 818 in 2021 and also had 813 OPS in the Covid year of 2020. Adames is in his last arb year and is expected to make $12.4 million this year. For comparison, Lux is estimated to make only $1.1 million this year and had a 745 OPS in 2022.
   I would keep Lux for the next 3 years at a bargain salary rather than Adames at 1 year at $12.4 million.

6. Burnes has always made more sense to me than Cease beyond the fact that he has been a better pitcher than Cease. We should not be blocking young starters by acquiring Cease, signing a starter for 3 to 5 years, and fitting Buehler back into the rotation. I would be fine taking on Adames in that trade but I would not want Yelich. If I am going to expand that trade I would add another young starter like Knack or Grove, and Yeiner Fernandez to get Sal Frelich or one of the young Milwaukee outfielders who are ML ready to play center field. Ideally, LA could acquire Burnes without the inclusion of Adames but I would not let that be a deal breaker. Things should start to come into focus soon.

7. I say no Ohtani. I just have a bad feeling about his future. No one knows when he can safely start hitting this coming season without jeopardizing his elbow or how well he will hit. I believe he’s had 2 elbow operations now (correct me if I’m wrong). How will his pitching be affected in the ’25 season? He will be commanding a ton of money and I can’t see putting it into a player with a questionable future.

   1. It’s been played down, but when he injured his oblique in September of last season, he cleaned out his locker and left the team.

      Make of it what you will, but he will be 30. He HAS had two surgeries, and there is no “i” in team, but there is an “I” in Ohtani.

      Also, no draft picks will have to be given up.

      I have nothing against Shohei or Gavin. I like them both – I just do not think Lux is a SS and I do not think Ohtani is worth the risk.

      The Dodgers are a baseball team – not a Circus Show!

      I would much rather re-sign JDM, Yamamoto and Imagana, Hoskins, and Heyward and it would be a better team.

      1. Is Betts a better SS than Lux? If so, move Betts to SS and leave Lux at 2B.

         You want Hoskins and Heyward. Then there’s also Outman in the outfield too. Where is Betts going to play? How about SS.

         By the way, the players you want AF to get are the same I said I wanted AF to get the other day except Heyward. I want the Japan guy Lee.

         1. The Japan guy Lee? Not too up on your Asian names and where they belong eh?

      2. Totally agree with Mark on Ohtani

8. The Dodgers are not signing Ohtani. Our immediate pitching need overrides paying him 30-40 million to DH, and waiting 2 yrs to see if can still pitch after a 2nd surgery.

   Trading Lux now would be selling low.

   I don’t want to see Muncy in the starting lineup as anything other than a DH, which means we need a 3rd baseman who can play + defense.

   I think the Dodgers will add two veteran arms.

9. 1 The Brewers are rebuilding.

   2 They probably would like a few multi-year controlable MLB ready players and a multi-year controlable starting pitcher to replace Burnes.

   3 The Dodgers need to clear space on the 40 man roster for whoever AF gets this offseason.

   4 Think about which prospects that are projected to be ready in 2024 (according to the Dodgers home page) that are never going to make the Dodgers 26 man roster and a pitcher that’s never going to make the starting rotation and which position the Dodgers have depth in the minor leagues.

   5 Which 1 player do some of us really want from the Brewers. The answer is Burnes.

   6 Burnes is a 1 year rental and there’s no way they should get Lux and Sheehan (he will be in the Dodgers starting rotation) for a 1 year rental.

   7 I’d do Grove, Cartaya, Vivas, Ramos for Burnes. Too much, take Cartaya out. Not enough, add Bruns.

   1. I forgot about Rojas. Throw him in the trade, since the Brewers want to trade Adames. Let them trade Adames to some other team. Taylor can be the backup SS among other positions.

   2. 6. Scherzer was a half-year rental and Turner was a year-and-a-half rental. The Dodgers got them for Gray, Ruiz, Casey, and Carrillo. Gray and Ruiz were the Dodgers Top 2 Prospects. I’d say Lux and Sheehan are a bargain!

      7. You can’t be serious!

      1. Without explaining yourself about number 7, I don’t know what you mean. Probably different opinions on those players.

         6 You never know if prospects are even going to make it to MLB and if they do make it, how good they will be. Lux and Sheehan are in MLB, therefore they are not a bargain.

         1. I thought about it and forget my post a few posts up about Burnes. If the Dodgers can steal him by trading Grove, Vivas, and Ramos I’d do it. But that’s not going to happen, so I’ll pass on Burnes.

10. We don’t need no stinking Brewers!

    1. Then where are you getting your beer?

       BTW, without water, you’d have to chew your beer!

       1. Water is life.

          1. Beer is 95% water.

             Therefore beer is life!

11. One intangible that makes Mark’s scenario more likely is that Lux is from Wisconsin. Not that he has a say in it, but from Milwaukee’s point of view. If you’re doing a rebuild, a hometown shortstop with a lot years of team control and a lot of upside would make Lux attractive. I think Gavin has .290 20hr .380 OBP potential. And with the rule changed I could see him grabbing 25-30 SBs. Tough guy for the Dodgers to give up. And, unlike Mark, I think he can play SS.

    If I’m Milwaukee and I am fielding offers for the last year of control of my ace, Lux would make a lot of sense as the cornerstone to that trade.

    Nostalgically, I really want Lux to remain a Dodger. My son got to know him when he was with the Quakes. He’s a really cool guy. And my son has an epic Lux collection. Game used bats, cleats and his 2017 home Spring Training jersey. The first jersey he ever wore in Dodger stadium during the freeway series against the Angels. So when AF calls me asking for my input, I will tell him I’d prefer Lux not be part of that trade. For personal reasons. I’ll be waiting by my phone.

    1. AF wasn’t bluffing about Lux at SS. Right now, he’s the most likely guy to start the season at SS, but I wouldn’t rule out Adames as a possibility. AF has been an Adames fan for years.
       But Lux would have been the SS if not for the injury. He played the position all through the minors and the brass believed in his ability. Miguel Rojas was signed as a UT backup.
       Just to compare recent rookie position guys: Although Lux had a slow start in his career, he certainly did better than Miguel Vargas–though not nearly as well as James Outman. Let’s leave Busch out since he really hasn’t had much “runway” at all.
       Speaking of Outman, I’m puzzled that you left him out of that last lineup you suggested. Instead, you have Busch in LF and a platoon of Heyward/DeLuca in LF too. But no CF at all.
       I double-checked to make sure you didn’t have Lux replacing Outman in center….

12. Mark, you make a ton of sense and you have convinced me. Get Burnes and Adames BUT I would include Yellich which would lower the cost of prospects going to Milwaukee. I’m inclined to think a package including one of the youngsters, Sheehan/Grove /Knack/Stone plus Lux and Miggy and one other prospect except for Rushing. Forget about Ohtani and use the money to resign Kike, JDM and Heyward. Add a couple of non attached QO FA pitchers like Ryu, Giollito, Flaherty, Manaea et al , a few tweaks for the bench, BP and trade deadline adjustments and it’s time for Dodgerrrr baseball…..IMHO.

    Sorry Bear, I have a GREAT deal of respect for you but unless AF can steal Robert in a package with Cease, I think the Milwaukee angle makes the most sense despite Adames’ K rate and the 1 year rental thing. Yellich is not the same player from a few seasons ago and not cheap BUT he’s still a solid player and would be a huge upgrade from last year’s LF production. Thanks Mark and Bear for your time and efforts that make this site possible.

    Lineup:

    1 Betts RF/2B
    2 Freeman 1B
    3 Smith C
    4 JDM. DH
    5 Yellich LF
    6 Adames SS
    7 Muncy 2B/Heyward RF
    8 Vargas 3B/Taylor
    9 Outman CF/Kike

    Rotation:

    Burnes
    Miller
    Ryu
    Buehler
    Manaea
    Pepiot

    1. I like the idea of bringing Ryu back.

       1. I could dig that

       2. Ryu has pitched in exactly 17 games in the last two years. He is going to be 37 next season. Too injury prone. Sorry, I am not bringing him back at any price.

          1. For $1m plus incentives maybe we get lucky.

             1. Lucky? Who is he? Sounds like a dog.

             2. I prefer talent. Ryu is a solid pitcher when healthy, unfortunately he cannot stay healthy.

13. Why not get Addames Burnes and Yelich from brewers for Lux Busch and Sheehan. It fills to positions the dodgers need in shortstop and leftfield. Then they get the ace pitcher . They will still need a second baseman and DH or thirdbaseman. So if they sign Ohtani he is the DH then Muncy is at third base that leaves second base you still have Vargas or you can go get a veteran second baseman like Whit Merrifield. Okay now look at my lineup.
    2024
    Ohtani DH
    Betts rf
    Freeman 1b
    Smith c
    Yelich LF
    Muncy 3b
    Addames ss
    Outman cf
    Merrifield 2b

    Starting pitching
    1. Burnes
    2. Miller
    3. Yamamoto
    4. Buehler
    5. Pepiot
    6 Yarbough
    Go with that and go get a championship.

    1. Merrifield is 35 and had an OPS slightly better than Rojas. I go with Vargas over Whit anyday.

       1. Merrifield is a veteran I was just saying get a second baseman who gets on base and fields good. If you sign Kiki then put him at second base.

    2. And if they don’t get Ohtani go get JD Martinez before the Yanks do or Bluejays. And he is the DH. and if there’s a third baseman out there go trade for him And then put Muncy as the DH. Of all the teams there’s got to be. Third baseman that could start for the Dodgers. There’s the Pirates guy, the Cubs guys if they get Chapman, there’s also the thirdbaseman for the whitsox. Or they could use Taylor and Kiki at thirdbase and Muncy DH that could be the backup plan if they don’t get Ohtani.

14. Go Florida!

    –A Ducks fan

15. I have been on the Yelich bandwagon, but few fans like that deal.

    That has never deturred me.

16. I don’t see the point of getting Adames. The Dodgers have enough players that don’t hit. Two of them can play SS. Rojas and Taylor. They have two more who can hit. Betts and Lux. Lux was hitting .290 before his neck injury. I’m sure his fielding couldn’t be worse than Turner or Seager.
    Yellich would be a huge overpay with his salary but would provide some value because he can hit.
    I would keep Lux, Vargas, Busch, DeLuca and Sheehan.

    1. Deluca is part of a long line of potential 4th OFers. Prove me wrong.

       1. He hits LHP, not so good at RHP, so yes, he is a 4th outfielder-type.

          Also, if Outman does not improve against LHP, he may be Jonny’s platoon partner. I predicted that Outman was a 4th or 5th outfielder, but I hope I am wrong!

          1. I really like Outman but that one stretch when he brought his average back from the dead saved his season. I think he could have serious regression once teams exploit his holes, but his skills are high enough for me to believe in him. At least ride him two more years while he’s cheap. Good call on Deluca platoon partner.

    2. Adames is overrated. Yelich is going to be 32 years old. Lux is much younger, faster and overall, a better hitter with a higher on base rate.

17. I say again, and I will keep saying it, I am not trading Sheehan and Lux for a couple of rentals. I know all about the Scherzer-Turner trade. DC still has all four of those players. Additionally, I am not taking on Yelich’s five-year 130-million-dollar anchor of a salary. The guy is 32. His skills have diminished. Adames and Burnes for one year? No thanks, then you have to go through the whole thing again next year. Unless they signed extensions before the trade, I do not want the Dodgers wasting prospect capital on those two guys and I damn sure do not want an aging outfielder who is past his prime. Ohtani is the Dodgers main target offensively. Then pitchers. They do not need Adames. They do not need Yelich. And they damn sure don’t need Chapman and his huge number of strikeouts.

    1. We’re thinking the same way on these subjects unless you want Ohtani. I don’t for reasons that have been talked about here.

       As for Burnes and Adames, extentions this close to free agency don’t happen, because everyone wants the big money from free agency.

       1. Exactly why I would not trade for either of them.

          1. Yep, me neither.

18. Sign Giolito, Imanaga gets posted on Monday. I would go after him over Yamamoto who seemingly wants to play on a team that has other Japanese players. Which at this point, the Dodgers do not have. Freeman is pushing for them to bring back Jason Heyward. I have no doubt there will be some trades involving prospects. But I would much rather trade for Cease than Burnes. Two years of control, 2 years younger, and only a year removed from finishing second in the Cy Young vote. No to Snell and any other player besides Ohtani who has a QO attached and costs draft picks. Congrats to Michigan for beating Ohio State for the third straight year. One to the Championship against Iowa.

    1. Yamamoto – a correction was made today regarding the translation of his statement about playing with Japanese players.

       What he actually said was that he wouldn’t mind playing with other Japanese players, contrary to some who want to be the only Japanese player on their team.

       It’s not a requirement, nor is it a deal killer.

       1. That makes more sense than demanding there be another on the team. He is going to get a lot more years than Imanaga since he is four years younger.

    2. I have to disagree with you on Cease and Giolito. The Dodgers don’t need middle of the rotation guys. 1 Cy Young award doesn’t mean anything, except to the guy who won it. Besides that one year for Cease, he’s had 2 horrible years, 1 bad year and 1 average year.

       They need a number 1 and 2. You mentioned Yamamoto, a number 1 and Imanaga, a number 2 in my opinion. They only need to get 2 starting pitchers in my opinion, because it’s time to let Miller, Pepiot, and Sheehan have their shots. We don’t know about Beuhler and if he does return, I’ve read the Dodgers are going to be carefull with him. To me that means he will need a piggyback and one of the 3 homegrown pitchers I mentioned could be his piggyback.

       If Yamamoto wants to play with other Japanese players, then AF should tell him that he’s pursuing Imanaga and Lee. Because I think AF should pursue them. Plus, don’t believe the rumors you hear. Oh, I see Singing The Blue cleared up that rumor.

       1. Lee is Korean. Japanese and Koreans have a long bloody history and the Koreans do not like them very much. I understand where you are coming from, but Cease is two years younger and under team control for two more years. And he has great stuff. A little tweak here and there and he could be a monster. Getting both Imanaga and Yamamoto is a stretch. They need a lefty, so I go after the guy who isn’t going to cost you the farm. Giolito is a California boy. He would love to pitch in LA, and he is exactly the type of signing AF loves to make. They are not going to sign two front line starters. They will trade for one and sign another. Since they have been having discussions with the Sox about Cease already, I think a trade for him is more likely than one for Burnes.

    3. Imanaga & Giolito are a total realistic duo to add.

19. Everything I say here is simply my opinion. I do not see Adames as a serious upgrade over Lux. I think Yelich’s bat is ok, and he even hit’s lefties some. But his defense is not as good as it used to be. I also believe the fan base wants a huge signing. I don’t consider a trade that sends young players away for a couple of rentals is prudent. That is why I believe they are targeting Ohtani. It makes good baseball sense and good business sense. His being in a Dodger uniform is going to generate a lot of money. No matter what his AAV turns out to be. The team is going to make boatloads of cash. He also improves the offense. Now, if he can return to pitching in 25, that is a bonus.

20. If the Dodgers do sign Yamamoto and/or Imagana and if Buehler does return, it makes a lot of sense to go with a six-man rotation. If they sign Cease, then they have seven starters:

    1. Cease
    2. Yamamoto
    3. Buehler
    4. Miller
    5. Pepiot
    6. Imanaga
    7. Sheehan (he’s the least ready)

    If they sign Ohtani, they will likely be the extent of their foray into free agency… maybe Heyward or Hoskins, but that will also leave Muncy at 3B.

    Unless they trade Sheehan or Pepiot, there is no room (or money) for Giolito.

    I love Lux’s bat, but I still do not see him as a SS for what Bruce Willis used to say:
    
    In case, you don’t understand, it’s the YIPS!

21. More rumors:

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rumors-trades-and-signings?t=trades-and-transactions

    1. I hope the Giants give Bellinger $200m.

22. Sheehan has just 201 IP in 4 minor leagues and part of a major league season, so I would expect him to start the season at OKC if the Dodgers add Free Agent Pitchers or trade for any.

    1. Depends. I have him 4th now on depth chart so could be bumped if/when we add two established SPs.

       I’d rather use those bullets now and have Stone be the guy at AAA waiting in the wings to come up.

23. exciting times! i have never been totally in on signing ohthani, but the giants are making a big push to sign him! that could be bad news for LA especially if they could sign Snell also. they have money and are ready to spend it. now him signing with the giants doesn’t mean they automatically win the division, but it does give them a chance to be very dangerous! even if they sign him there are still a lot of holes in that lineup. so if the dodgers don’t get ohtani they could still trade for burnes (or cease) and it appears toronto is open to trading bichette. sign one of the japanese pitchers (probably the lefty) resign heyward, i would certainly kick the tires on bichette! and if lux isn’t included in a deal for Bo, put him back at second base. mookie back in right, outman in center, and either vargas or busch in left. dump barnes and use Hunter as the backup. i like that lineup. miller, cease,(burnes), buehler, pepiot,imanaga! lets roll! oh i forgot dh. JD or JT, although i would rather have Martinez, because i don’t believe JT wants back in LA., but you never know!

    1. At this point the Giants are all talk. If Toronto trades Bichette, it is going to cost you a lot in player capitol. Snell is a 5-inning pitcher, let the Giants sign him and burn through their bullpen by August. The winter meetings start one week from tomorrow. Scuttlebutt is that Ohtani might sign during the meetings. Once he does, the floodgates will open. I honestly have no clue what AF is planning. I want for the Dodgers to IMPROVE THE TEAM OVERALL. I have no idea who or how they will do that. I just do not see them making any knee jerk moves to countermand any moves by their competition.

24. I just read that Forbes has the Dodgers if sold today valued at six billion dollars. Not a bad investment when they were bought tn 2012 for two billion from Frank McCourt. With Ohtani and the International market he brings to the table, this figure will rise substantially. Ownership will be ringing the cash register daily once he is officially signed.

    1. Correction: Another MLB list has the Dodgers valued at 4.8 billion and the Yankees top the list valued at 7.1 billion.

25. California State tax on 550 mil contract. 67.5 mil. I’d be more worried about Texas than the Giants!

    1. Ohtani claims it’s NOT about the money where he signs. Dodger ownership does not let him sign elsewhere. Creativity will play a major factor and AF,BG and ownership will figure it out. Ohtani will be a cash machine once signed and the Dodgers know it besides his immense talent on and off the field in the Japanese community and he will attract top free agents. A win win situation.

       1. Ohtani’s personal brand will be worth much more with an “LA” on his hat than “Texas”.

          I do NOT think we need to have the highest bid, because I think our smart folks and our new global branding VP will show the numbers to Ohtani which prove he’ll make a lot more in endorsements being a Dodger than being a Giant or Ranger.

          Only the NY hat compares equally (if not more) to the LA hat.

          1. Ohtani just makes too much sense for the Dodgers to pass. I think it is AF ‘s top priority, even over pitching to sign him.

             Then I’d trade for Cease and Robert, Jr. Pepiot , Frasso, Knack, Cartaya and Busch should get it done.

             Re-sign Heyward. He could platoon with DeLuca.

             If they really wanted to go all in they could sign Yamamoto.

26. Excuse me. 13.3%. 73.15 mil!

27. Just to belabor a point….
    Ohtani is a great player–and on a path to arguably being regarded as the greatest ever.
    He is the biggest star in the game–an international star–and please understand that the Dodgers are in the ENTERTAINMENT business more than the baseball business. It’s a wealthy large-market franchise that aims for a global reach, so Ohtani is a great fit. As the adage goes, you have to spend money to make money, and Ohtani is THE marquee player of our times.
    Some people here seem to think that AF and the Dodger brass will instead think small. Or that they should think small.
    They ask: Why not spread $500 million around 5 talented players instead of investing in one?
    A reasonable question.
    The answer is that those five theoretical players don’t have the star power of Ohtani. We could imagine 5 quality free agents within a $500 million cost–say Snell, Chapman, Imanaga, Giolito and Rhys Hoskins.
    Would those five, collectively, generate that same excitement as Ohtani? Nope. Could they help win a few more games? Sure. Win a World Series? Maybe, maybe not.
    ut are they really that much better than the players the Dodgers would otherwise put around Ohtani, Mookie and Freddie? Ohtani would be walking into a winning tradition with quality teammates and a deep, productive farm system.
    So the Dodgers will be making a serious and sincere effort to land Ohtani. He’ll get megabucks regardless of where he signs. But the Dodgers have a lot of what he is seeking.
    Mark has suggested that maybe Ohtani should bat leadoff. Certainly plausible. He has a great OBP and great speed.
    But just for fun, let’s look ahead and imagine that the Dodgers two top draft picks thriving and making the roster in ’26 or ’27. How about this lineup:
    Kendall George CF
    Ohtani DH
    Mookie 2B
    Freddie 1B
    Smith/Rushing C
    Outman RF
    Busch/Vargas LF
    Gelof 3B
    Lux SS

    1. I like that lineup. But if they sign Ohtani, he is not batting leadoff. That is Mookie’s best slot in the lineup. He hits better out of the leadoff hole than any other spot in the lineup., I am pretty sure Ohtani won’t mind jacking up his RBI total hitting lower in the lineup. George is probably a little more than just two years away, but that would be cool adding his bat to ball skills and speed to a lineup.

       1. I would like to amend my future lineup, with Outman moving to LF and Pages taking over RF. He’s got the bigger arm, right? Still think that Busch deserves to be traded to a team that needs him. He’s earned the opportunity, and the Dodgers still can’t figure out his best position.
          To Mark’s point re Lux, my ultra-rosy scenario assumes that Kendall George blossoms more like Tim Raines than Juan Pierre. (That comp seems so stupid to me. The Dodgers would never make Juan Pierre their top draft pick.) Lux could be a great lead-off guy for another team (like the Brewers) but he’s the second lead-off for these future Dodgers. And I’m hoping that Gelof blossoms like this big brother in Oakland.
          Mookie figures to bat lead-off for the next few years. I still see Mookie-Freddie-Shohei at the top of the ’24 lineup. As he ages, Mookie will slow down a bit and move to 2B full-time, and maybe George forces himself into the leadoff spot. Mookie could bat second or third. (It’s good to be a Dodgers fan.)
          All considered, I’m not worried about the Dodgers lineup–even if they don’t land Ohtani.
          The big need now is for an ace SP.
          The second biggest is for a second ace SP.
          Still think free agent Nick Senzel, released by the Reds, makes a lot of sense. He could platoon with Max, and also play OF.

    2. I think Busch gets traded for starting pitching but otherwise great lineup.

       1. Its entirely possible

          I struggle to find a spot for him

    3. If Lux is so good, why is he still batting last?

       1. Second leadoff hitter

       2. Batting ninth he becomes a table setter for Betts and Freeman. With his speed he can score easily from 1st on all those doubles those guys hit.

28. Good, well thought out post, Duke.

29. Of all the draft picks and all the minor league players to have played for the Dodgers, only one has had a 10+ year all star career with the Dodgers. Kersh!

30. In the past 20 years!

31. Good pitching beats good hitting in the playoffs.

    1. It does?

       How so?

       1. According to fangraphs, the league wide batting average this past season was .248; thus, one can deduce that pitchers were at least 75% successful in preventing hits and had a 68% success rate in keeping runners off base, given a league wide OBP% of .320.

          Pitching and defense in general produces more favorable results than hitting.

          1. That’s not deduction nor reasoning, it’s literally words and statistics in sequence and then a random point affixed to it.

             That’s one horrible attempt to justify a curious comment.

             1. The sport is clearly pitching and defense centric; hence, the reason why teams with superior pitching and defense typically find more success.

                However, I recognize there is a degree of randomness in the playoffs, as it boils down to who gets hot at the right time. However, given that outcomes (wins) within the sport are heavily skewed (percentage wise) by pitching and defense, those teams possessing good pitching and defense typically generate more favorable odds.

                Look no further than the LAD in 2023. Lack of starting pitching doomed them in the playoffs.

32. I would be happy if the Giants sign Bellinger and Snell to big contracts. Both players will not come close to delivering the value. I think Snell will give you a year or two, and Bellinger is no longer a 30+ HR guy with how he revamped his swing.

    1. Bellinger to NYY
       Snell to Cubs
       Yamamoto to Mets
       Giants get . . . Soto?

33. We will all know very soon. Can’t wait for the winter meetings.

34. Former Dodger Rangle Ravelo signed by the Mariners to a minor league deal.

35. Old friend Kenta Maeda signs with the Tigers. Two years, 24 million.

    Things are starting to move, Bear. You may not have to wait for the Winter Meetings.

    1. Good for Kenta. I figured things would begin to heat up and they have. A lot of minor signings going on. One reason I think the Dodgers will be active on the trade front is because they need roster space to add more than one free agent.

36. So Dodgers maven Tim Rogers has pointed out the Brewers basically have a vacancy at 1B. Rowdy Tellez, who belongs on the all-name team, is a free agent.
    This is another reason to think Busch could be part of a Brewers deal. Or if not Busch, maybe Vargas.
    Mark’s blockbuster for Burnes, Yelich and Adames seems a little bit more plausible…. but I still think Burnes-Adames makes more sense.
    Instead of committing more than $100 million to Yelich, that money can pay for an SP, and the budget for LF could stay low with DeLuca, Pages or maybe Vargas out there.

37. If the dodgers trade to White Sox why couldn’t they get Cease Roberts JR and The third baseman what is his name from the white Sox starts with a M. For Sheehan Busch Cartaya and say Rojas. That way you get a new third baseman keep Lux at short since you all think he can play Muncy is DH resign Kiki for second base and then Roberts is in left field or center take the money you don’t spend on Ohtani and get to quality pitchers in Yomamoto and Flarethy then you wojld habe Cease Yamamoto Flarethy Buehler Millee Pepiot as starters then a third baseman and left fielder pretty much play every day like Freeman and Betts. I just forget the third baseman for the White Sox. I see this happening if Ohtani goes to the Cubs which I hear he really likes. And Muncy becomes the DH then you need a thirdbaseman and it ain’t Vargas he strikes out way to much. Sign Kiki and go get another outfielder like Heyward then you have Taylor, Roberts Jr, and Outman as your outfielders amd Lux at short Taylor and Hernandez at second base guess with white Sox you get more platoon options then with the brewers trade. Yelich plays LF and Addames SS unless he can play third base and you keep Rojas at shortstop but to get Addames I think you have to trade Lux to Brewers.

    1. Yoan Moncada is the White Sox 3B and has no power. Not to mention he’s not better than Muncy and he has a contract that is 24,,800,000 against the cbt. Robert will need more than you have listed.

    2. You keep beating a dead horse. Adames is not an upgrade and he and Burnes are rentals. Sorry, not trading for those guys. And I am not trading Sheehan. The Sox third baseman, Moncada has no power. Roberts Jr. and Cease would be a nice addition, but I would just trade for those two. Send Busch, Cartaya, Grove and Vivas and maybe a lower tier pitcher. That should be enough to get it done. Believe this, Ohtani is their main target. I would rather see them sign Giolito than Flaherty. No matter who they get, only Betts and Freeman and maybe Muncy will be in there full time. This organization loves versatility and there will be platoons at almost all of the positions. Even SS if Lux is there, that is why they traded for Rojas. Kike failed as a full time second baseman both times he was handed the job. And Kike at this point in time, is not even a Dodger. They are going to have to clear some roster space before they do anything. They have one slot open. Ohtani is not going to sign with the Cubs. He is going to stay on the west coast.

       1. Agree with your premise that AF plans to do some trades because of how full the 40-man is. He needs to make room somehow.

          Also agree that I’d rather have Giolito than Flaherty, but he’ll cost more. And he’d better only be the second best pitcher we add. If he’s the best pitcher Andrew manages to come up with, we’ll be in trouble.

          On the other hand, I completely disagree with your thought that Busch, Cartaya, Grove and Vivas would get Robert and Cease. Wouldn’t even come close. They would ask for more than that for Robert alone.

          Cartaya’s trade value went down sharply last season, Grove is basically a long reliever and Vivas is basically considered a utility man. Robert is a 26 year old 5 WAR player last year with 38 homers and is under control for 4 more years for less than 70 mil total.

          1. You are probably right there. Ok, let’s try this, Busch, Vivas, Pages, Rushing, Vargas, and 2 lower tier pitchers for the two of them. We have some pretty good catchers in the pipeline. Throw in Frasso if that is what it takes. Sox trying to rebuild their farm system. I think he has some idea which pitchers he plans to target. If he can get Cease, Giolito and Imanaga, a lefty, I would be ecstatic.

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