Never doubt statistics. This is especially true when looking at minor-league players. You can always predict for a certainty how a player will perform in Major League Baseball by looking at what they did in the minor leagues. We don’t need scouts, GMs, Baseball America, or MLB Pipeline, and we don’t need any stinking Keith Law.. All we need are statistics. Statistics are King – they are God-like. Statistics will never let you down. You can win any argument with statistics. We don’t need Spring Training… we need more statistics! Some of you are skewed toward James Outman and away from Mike Busch. Why? Statistics! Mike Bush’s batting average in MLB is .000, while James Outman’s is .462. Statistics rule! NEVER DOUBT STATISTICS!
If you think any of the above is true and not pure sarcasm, then stop reading this and check yourself into a mental hospital immediately! In Cody Bellinger’s first two years in the minors, he hit 4 HRs. In his third year, he hit 30 (in High A Ball), but then he “regressed” in 2016 to hit 26 (mostly in AA). He only played 21 games at AAA, before becoming the Rookie of the Year in 2017 AND MVP in 2019. Who saw that coming? Not the stats! Actually, I saw it coming because I watched him a lot. I said he was ready in Spring Training, but just about everyone disagreed with me.
In 2012, Corey Seager hit .309 in Rookie Ball. He then regressed in 2013 to hit .269 in A Ball. Then he proceeded to hit .181 in the AFL. In 2015, he hit.278 at AAA, and then the next season (2016), he hit .308 as a rookie and was the Rookie of the Year for the Dodgers. Progress is not incremental, and I can provide hundreds of cases like these, but my point is: If you are relying on stats to predict how well a minor league player will do in the majors, you are using about 30% of the available information, and I would love to bet money with you. I will win 7 out of 10 times. I will own you!
You can look at Diego Cartayas’ statistics and this he has regressed, but I challenge anyone who has watched him AND has a keen eye for talent to say that! You will be laughed out of town—some of you like James Outman. I do too, but I like all Dodger players. However, I do see a similarity between him and Joc Pederson. Joc is really a 4th outfielder (part-time LF’er), which is exactly what I predicted. I wish Joc were still on the team, but he should never take an AB against a LHP. I can’t say for sure, but Outman may fall into that category, too… still he could be a very valuable player for the Dodgers.
I have watched Mike Busch, James Outman, Miguel Vargas, Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller, and many other Dodgers Prospects extensively. I look at the statistics but don’t let them cloud my opinions. I consider them and also consider what my eyes tell me. My eyes tell me this:
- Miguel Vargas is a very good player… borderline elite – The statistics confirm it!
- Gavin Stone is MLB-ready ( he needs to throw more strikes, but that will come) – The stats confirm it!
- Mike Busch is worth a shot as a Schwarberesque player – The stats are conflicting, but the swing is real.
- James Outman has the CF job- It is his to lose – The stats are strong for the past year… beyond that?
- Bobby Miller is a tick away from the MLB – Statistics be damned!
- Ryan Pepiot – He has shown that he is ready. End of discussion.
- Andy Pages – He is close. Closer than you might think.
- Diego Cartaya – I think he could play in MLB this year. He probably won’t, but it’s possible.
The reason you can’t use minor-league stats is that you don’t know what the coaching staff is working on with that particular player. You don’t know their work ethic, their dietary habits, their determination, and their resilience. You don’t know how they play up or down to their competition. So, you listen or read what other baseball people say about that player. You see if there is a consensus of opinion. You watch them on MiLB.TV or in person (if possible). You look at YouTube or other video sources. Occasionally, you will learn something you did not know that connects the dots. For instance, I could not understand why Landon Knack (who has four pitches and incredible stuff) could not be way more successful than he was, while I heard that he is essentially lazy and undisciplined. He doesn’t work out hard, and his diet is allegedly crap! It’s possible he is unfixable unless he changes his mindset!
Then I read every talent evaluation source that I can, and finally, I add in the stats. But, I think at least 70% of how I form an opinion is not derived from the stats. I am not saying that stats are not useful – I am saying you should use your eyes and brain more than the stats. The game is played by people… not stats. For example, many of you are critical of Chris Taylor because he hit .221 with a .304 OB% last season and struck out 160 times, while OPS’ing .677. His strikeouts are always going to be there, but since he became a Dodger and they “fixed” his swing, here are his OPS:
- 2017 – .850
- 2018 – .775
- 2019 – .795
- 2020 – .842
- 2021 – .782
Why do so many of you conclude that what he did last year is the same as what he will do this year? Let’s look past the stats. What was different about last year, which was the worst of his Dodger career? Well, he had surgery to remove bone chips from his right elbow during the off-season and also had some nagging injuries throughout the year. It seems likely that his arms may have affected him just as Max Muncy’s arm affected him. By the way, I expect CT3 and Max Muncy to both come out with a chip on their shoulder and show they still have it. CT3 will hit .270+ and be around 20 HR (he has hit 20 twice), as he will benefit from the ban of the shift. I also expect Max to OPS .850 to .900 and hit his usual 35 HRs.
Never stop using stats, but don’t rely on them – there is always “The Rest of the Story,” as Paul Harvey used to say. BTW, Jason Heyward also has a chip the size of Chicago on his shoulder (and so does Cody Bellinger). I am of the opinion that you can throw the stats out the window for both Heyward and Trayce Thompson… and maybe Yusneil Diaz, as RVS and Company re-tool their swings.
Rants & Raves
- If you believe Andrew Friedman is serious about not getting under the Lux Tax Cap in 2023, then you are very naive. Of course, he is going to deny it because if he acknowledges it, other GMs will demand more collateral in trades. He is waiting to see what opens up, what injuries happen, and how certain [players develop. It is possible that he won’t be able to do it, but “you can bet your sweet bippy” that he will try.
- It may be nothing, but now Rojas has signed an extension (which expires at the same time as CT3’s), and that could possibly make Taylor expendable. So we wait.
Great stuff Mark. I have seen guys rake at AAA and then flop like a dying fish at the major league level. Case in point Billy Ashley. Billy Ashley hit .345 with 37 bombs and 105 RBIs in 1994 at Albuquerque. He came up to the Dodgers for 1995 and hit 8 bombs and hit a paltry .237. He never hit double figure homers his entire MLB life which was relatively short in LA and Boston. He would hit double figure homers in the minors 4 more times but never more than 15. His career BA in the majors was .233 and he had 28 homers. At the end of yesterday’s post, someone, Johnny Gentle I think, said that Rojas should play all over the field and make Taylor the everyday left fielder. No thanks. Taylor flourishes in his utility role, and while he plays a solid left field, he played less than half of the Dodgers games at the position last season. He has never played more than the 80 he played out there last season in any other year. The most times he has played the outfield in any season was 96 games in 2017 and those were split evenly between left and center. He and Heyward have very similar numbers against RHP with Heyward a slight edge in the average and power numbers.
Financially, it doesn’t make sense to pay a guy $15m and have him sitting for a $1m guy, especially if that guy isn’t a rookie.
True, but Taylor has never been a regular at any position. He does not crush lefty’s all that well, but his BA against is close to what he does against RHP. Heyward is making this team. Bank on it. And Taylor will do his usual moving around, giving Betts, Muncy et al a day off.
It is a well known fact that 57.433% of statistics are made up on the fly.
There is the Posey rule. There is the Utley rule. And now there is the Lux tax. He is in good company.
Joc is now mostly a DH. His defense fell off considerably in the second half last year. At the same time his line last year was .274 .353 .521 .874. A fourth outfielder typically doesn’t do that well. Against lefty pitchers his line was .245 .333 .408 .741. He looks far worse against lefties than his stats say.
Here’s another Joc stat: $19.65 million salary for 2023. He seems to be having a pretty good career.
Mark and Jayne have both compared Outman to Joc. To which I say “great!”… and point out that Outman is a much better defender, in part because he is faster.
If we get Joc with Grade A defense, that would be pretty darn great.
Mark still seems to think Outman’s success is derived from uncanny luck, as if his last year’s production–in Tulsa, OKC and the majors–might be flukish.
The simpler explanation: Outman has raised his game. The Dodger brass obviously see it, and that’s why the CF job seems to be his to lose.
Outman, let’s recall, wasn’t a first-round pick like Busch or many others who have succeeded or failed. . He wasn’t a hot international prospect like Vargas whose development was nurtured by a dad who happened to be major Cuban star. Outman was a 7th-round pick out of Cal State Sacramento–not exactly a baseball factory–who was selected because scouts were impressed by his athletic ability, not his stats. As Outman himself put it, “He had a caveman swing.”
It’s still not a pretty as Busch’s, but it’s been pretty effective.
Funny that a guy who likes to declare “progress is not linear!” has a hard time accepting Outman’s progress. He must have been doing something right to advance to Tulsa and then OKC and then majors. I find the upward trend encouraging, not suspect. A full season of progress from Tulsa to the majors can’t be dismissed as a small sample size.
I 100% agree, Mark, that in theory Chris Taylor could be available via trade.
Nobody, and I mean nobody is going to trade for a utility guy making 15 mil a year for the next three seasons. Taylor is not going anywhere. At least this year. Next year or 25, who knows.
But the question might be more about how much of Taylor’s paycheck would the Dodgers have to retain to be able to trade him. Is he tradeable if his cost to a team were only $10M? That would still save the Dodgers $10M annually.
Whether he is tradable may depend upon how good of a start he gets off to and two other things:
1. Injuries to another team; and
2. Dodger rookies or other Non-Roster Invitees.
Yes, both of those plus any retention of payroll
You could look at it that way. 15 mil is what he is worth to the Dodgers. Someone else might value him at say 7.5 million. Or on the outside, 10. I do not see many utility guys making 10 million a year. Kike is getting 10 million in Boston, and he is a year younger than Taylor. Except for BA, their stats are quite similar. I looked it up and Taylor is actually getting 13 mil the last two years of his contract.
If he puts up 2 WAR he’s worth the money. I think he will which makes him trade worthy.
Lebron is officially POed. Nets traded Irving to the Mavericks. Lebron really wanted him on the Lakers.
Wish Lakers would trade Lebron to Mavericks too, or to Nets. Or who cares.
Mark I think I’m one of the people you are talking about. First of all I apologize in advance to you for this post and I apologize for possibly accusing you about me being one of the people you are talking about. But if I am one of the people you are talking about I’m going to explain things.
1 I don’t rely only on stats about minor leaguers, yes mostly but I take in consideration what the experts say too. For example I made my own top 10 list this off season like I do every off season, but this year I included a number 11 and that was Andy Pages because of what I said in the first sentence. The significant drop in stats Andy Pages had from A+ ball to AA ball and the stats he ended up with in AA ball would have made me drop him from my list entirely if I used stats only, but I took in consideration what the experts say about him. I already explained this before. Also if I relied on stats only, my top 11 list overall would look different.
2 What you said about Corey Seager and his stats from rookie ball, A ball, and the AFL has nothing to do with my opinion about a minor leaguer. I also explained this before. The first test to me is AA ball, the next test is AAA ball and I consider what the experts say.
3 The experts got it wrong about Will Smith early in his career in the minors. I got it right about Will Smith because of my first test that I talked about in number 2. This is an example of why I say the experts get it wrong sometimes.
4 If you are talking about me being skewed towards Outman and away from Busch it’s because I’m talking about this year (who’s ready and who’s not), not anything past this year. I already explained this before.
5 You mentioned Cartaya and if that has anything to do about my top 11 list I’ll explain. My top 6 are guys that at least had a full season in AA ball (remember my first test) the rest are guys that haven’t. I ranked Cartaya number 8 behind Rushing, meaning I almost ranked him at the top at number 7 among the lower level guys and that’s because I took in consideration what the experts say about Cartaya, but I like Rushing better, just my opinion. Speaking about Cartaya and where I ranked him, I got a lot of backlash from people here and one person actually got offended and that’s weird. Offended about that? There’s other things that are worse that justify being offended. By the way I kept your name anonymous and I apologize for bringing this up but it had to do with me having to explain something. Also when I make my top 10 prospect list next off season and every off season going forward I’ll keep my mouth shut about it here.
6 I agree with you about Taylor and Muncy, maybe not the exact numbers you gave about your prediction, but I agree about your overall point.
7 You brought up Heyward and Thompson. I don’t think anyone can fix Heyward enough to justify him being the everyday starting LF and to a lesser extent Thompson. I had this discussion with someone and he thinks because Heyward has a chip on his shoulder he will have a good year and good enough to be the starting LF. I pointed to Heyward’s career stats and mention that he sucks against LHP and is pretty average against RHP so I don’t think he has a chance to be the starting LF even if he’s better this year than his career stats. Question: Which one (me or him) have the better odds of being right, the chip on the shoulder theory or the statistics theory? And this exact theory vs theory comes up a lot here. I also mentioned if Heyward is not the starting LF and is on the bench as a pinch hitter along with Thompson (who doesn’t hit LHP good either), along with Rojas and Barnes. Who is going to pinch hit against a LHP if that situation comes up? To me that means both Heyward and Thompson shouldn’t be on the team together, it’s gotta be one or the other and someone that hits LHP good needs to be on the bench as a pinch hitter. By the way I kept your name anonymous too.
Theory like mist on eyeglasses obscure vision.
I’m working on a theory about the abstruse. It’s an abstract for the time being.
I have a theory that exclaims nothing and improves everything!
Thompson had reverse splits last year, which was his best season ever… and it wasn’t good.
Unless the Dodgers can fix him, I don’t see much future.
I’d sooner put Busch in LF and see what happens.
I do not care if you mention my name. You believe what you want and I believe what I want. It does not matter who is wrong or right. What matters is that the Dodgers put the best 26 on the roster. You can pooh pooh Heyward’s chip on the shoulder all you want. That is your opinion. My point is that I think you are all underestimating how much of a motivation to get back to the All-Star caliber player he was can be. It will be interesting to see if that motivation, working with a different style hitting coach and the desire to justify his former teammates belief in him translates into his performance on the field.
I would love to see Trayce Thompson have a good season.
Same with Outman, Heyward, Taylor, and Busch.
Diaz too, and 25 other non-roster invitees.
It’s going to be a battle and we are going to see lots of players who may look bad early…
In another week, it all starts. May the best players make the team.
Barring injury, there will likely be 13 position players.
Barnes, Smith, Freeman, Lux, Rojas, Vargas, Freeman, Muncy, Betts, Martinez, and Taylor are locks.
That is 11 players. There are 20 players competing for two spots.
My guess is Outman is the 12th and that Heyward, Thompson, and Busch are the final 3 for that last spot. Devin Mann is a darkhorse.
Mark you have Freeman listed twice. So 10 guys are locks. Outman the 11th. 2 spots left.
Harrison Bader hits lefties well that could be someone we could trade with if we need a centerfielder that can hit lefties. I remember that guy when he played for the Cardinals played all out and hustles. Nit an everyday palyers but a platoon player yes. That’s what the Dodgers need are bats in hitting sidutations do you really feel good with Taylor or Thompson as pinch hitters. Outman if he can hit both lefties and righties will be the centerfielder if he can’t the dodgers will be in trouble if it’s Thompson as there every day starter. What’s funny is back in the 80s and 90s. We never looked at how the starters hit lefties or righties. They were just the nine starters. And then you had your bench players. So is are outfield of Taylor Thompson Betts the starters. You look at all the teams in the west and go hmm. The Padres probable one Giants second Dodgers third DBacks Fourth and then Rockies fifth. But if you put Taylor Outman Betts it’s very close to the Padres.
Baseball has changed very dramatically since that time period. Statistics over a long span do prove that most players do not hit as well against pitchers that throw from the side of the plate they are on. That’s where stats are very valuable. It used to be that bullpen were just failed starters and were not very good. Now, specialists spin the ball of 9 million spins per second or whatever, and everyone throws 100 MPH.
They don’t do this for shits and giggles – they do it because it works at a higher rate than it doesn’t. Evolve or Die!
BTW, Harrison Bader can’t hit very well. His career BA is .253 against LHP.
Hanser Alberto hiot .279 against LHP for the Dodgers last year and you all hated him. Bader is worse than that but can play defense. Bader OPS’ed .650 last year. You want who?
That’s with a .680 OPS. Alberto.
This is the second day in a row that I came across someone that only talked about BA. That’s not the full picture. You need to include OPS too.
Eric I read you a message about find a outfielder that hits lefties good better then Taylor and Thompson. I read Harrison Bader rates as an outfielder that hits lefties well and thought. Hey that would be a nice bench player or platoon outfielder for the Dodgers. I am sure the front office is looking at that as well a player that doesn’t start but can come off the pinch and bench hit. Then again I thought hmmm in a regular season game who would you pinch hit for in the dodgers lineup. Would it be just Outman if a Lefty is pitching. Because all the other batters do okay against lefties. I am like you I thought they would find an everyday leftfielder that hits both lefties and righties well. It could be I saw alot last year and in the playoffs of Thompson’s and Taylor and was like okay put the bat on the ball get a hit. And I guess if that happens again the Dodgers will be okay. But at mid season then do they then realize wo we need two outfielders and then who are they going to get that they can’t get now.
Bradley, first off, the Yankees would have to want to trade Bader. Which at this point is not happening. Also, he does not hit lefty’s all that well. His BA against LHP is .253. Same as Chris Taylor. His OPS is pretty good at .799. But he does not hit for power against LHP. I think the Dodgers want to see what they have on their roster right now before even thinking about trades.
Bader has a .253/.799 BA/OPS career against LHP, and the 2 years he had the most at bats he averaged .235/.763. So splitting the difference is .244/.781. Plus Bader in 2021 had .243/.765 and then he dropped off in 2022 to .212/.562. I’ll pass.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have signed former Philadelphia Phillies utilityman Luke Williams on a minor league deal with a non-roster invite to MLB Spring Training. Williams can play every single position on the baseball diamond, aside from pitcher and catcher. and did for the Phillies.
Another AAA piece. He has about as much chance of making the roster as Duggar and Zimmer.
You are probably right on Williams, Duggar and Zimmer. All are very unlikely to make the team. But Roberts did specifically mention that Zimmer is great defensively and may be in the mix at CF. A definite long shot, but he did play 100 games in CF for Toronto last year, mostly as a defensive replacement. Even though he only hit 101, he was still kept for his defense by a playoff team.
On this team they cannot afford to carry a bat that weak. In the mix means he had better hit during spring training and he had better hit well. They are not going to waste a roster spot on some weak hitter. Lineup is not that long.
We all have differing opinions on who they should keep and who should be sent down. In order to field the strongest team possible, they are going to have to see who plays well during spring training. Vargas and Outman are about the closest thing to being locked in on the roster as they can be. Vargas is going to have to play himself off of the team. They expect big things from the kid. Outman is a question mark offensively, but very good defensively. If he hits, he is making the team, if not, they have enough options to let him season a little bit more at AAA. Busch has an outside chance of making the team, but I believe they want him playing every day somewhere, and my guess is AAA finding himself a position. If someone doesn’t do well, he is the first man up. Forget trades for now. They are going to evaluate what they have on the roster before they make any trades. And they won’t make a trade just to make one. If they can improve the team with a deal, then they will make that move. And do not expect any other team to not try to milk the best package for the player they are trying to get. No matter who it is, they are going to cost the Dodgers some of their prospect assets.