This is the time of year where everyone has an opinion and that means the intelligent and the morons. Unfortunately, the latter seems to get a lot of play. The calls from some for the Dodgers to break the bank and shell out hundreds of millions on 30 year old stars in deals that pay them into their 40s is beyond insane. Hasn’t anyone learned from the Pujols deal?
- Talking economics
Let’s look at things from a personal economic perspective. You decide to buy a car. You need it for daily transportation. That is drive to and from work, about 15 miles per day. A nice Honda Accord or Toyota Camry will do the job. They are nice, dependable cars and they have a lot of luxury features that make your drive pleasant. Now, you’d love to have a car with all the bells and whistles. Having 450 horses under the hood would be real sweet to have. Though you don’t do any off-roading, a 4-wheel drive and a cool rollbar would be nice too. Throw in an amazing audio system even though you only have time to listen to your great music for 15-20 minutes during your drive every day. Custom Alloy wheels, racing or off road tires, awesome looking pipes, and metallic paint job with amazing detail and personalized engraving in the interior. Before long this vehicle you should be paying $40K for is running you $200,000. You could go all out and purchase a Ferrari or Lamborghini or maybe even a classic rare vehicle made by Caroll Shelby that is collectible and shell out over a million dollars too.
Well Trea Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson even Correa are that Ferrari. Right now, a top 3-4 shortstop in the game. Gavin Lux is the used Accord, with a dent or two.
You pay $300 million over 10-11 years, or you shell out the major league minimum for less production, but production that will hold the fort for a while. An average AAV of $27 million for Trea vs. an AAV of $750K for Lux. That is 36 times more. Is Trea Turner’s value 36 times better than Lux? Or Amaya? Yeah, we’ll miss those 20+ homers and 30 stolen bases, but Lux can provide half that. The Dodgers are on that quest to get out from under the luxury tax and are on the way to doing so it appears.
As of now, after 2023, the Dodgers will only have Freeman, Betts and Chris Taylor on the books with long term deals. There are other guys you’d like to lock up long term such as Urias, but as a Boras client, that won’t happen. Will Smith would be good to ink to a long- term deal too. Aside from those 5 mentioned, the payroll looks to reduce substantially by end of next year.
- The elephant in the room
That would be Trevor Bauer and MLB’s decision regarding his appeal. If the suspension is lifted and the Dodgers are forced to pay him, the competitive balance threshold will be an issue and the team will need to reset. If you are complaining about the Dodgers reluctance to make big money moves this winter, the Bauer conundrum is a big reason behind it.
- The minor league cupboard is full, perhaps it is time to remove some of the clutter
The Dodgers have such a quantity of top tier talent in the minors, they can’t possibly keep them all or protect them from future Rule 5 drafts. They probably need to trade off some of the talent in multiples for a proven major leaguer, such as Bryan Reynolds from Pittsburgh, (who has requested a trade). It’ll be viewed as an over-pay but also could serve the purpose of freeing up some roster space.
Next year they will have a lot of quality minor leaguers, they cannot possibly protect them all. Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, Bobby Miller, Edgardo Henriquez, Nick Nastrini, Carlos Duran, Carson Taylor, Jose Ramos, Ronan Kopp, Diego Cartaya, Andy Pages, Michael Busch, Rayne Doncon. Would four of these guys (not including Cartaya, Stone or Miller) be acceptable to Pittsburgh for Reynolds? Probably not. They’ll want Cartaya or Miller included. Just a thought.
- A changing of the guard
Thus far the Dodger officially have lost the following players from their 2021 roster:
Tommy Kahnle (Yankees), Cody Bellinger (Cubs), Trea Turner (Phillies), Andrew Heaney (Rangers), Chris Martin (Red Sox), Edwin Rios (Brewers), David Price (to retirement)
Remaining in limbo is, but probably gone are:
Justin Turner, Kevin Pillar, Joey Gallo, Craig Kimbrel
They got 12 innings of Kahnle for $ 4.2 million, only to fix him and let him return to the Yankees. It is just money I suppose, but there seems to be no loyalty in the game or appreciation to an organization that stuck with you through the tough times. Kahnle got paid, and you cant blame a guy for that, but it still seems unfair. The situation kind of reminds me of John Tudor, who was acquired for Pedro Guerrero. We then watched as Tudor blew out his elbow in the ’88 World Series and then returned to St. Louis as a free agent after healing up in 1990.
I’m sad to see Bellinger go, but only because of what he potentially could have become. Again, he’s tinkering with his stance and swing this off-season. Is this a broken record? We’ll see how that turns out, but I’m skeptical. He tends to experiment a lot and always revert back to the “swing from the heels” approach. I’ll miss his defense and legit pop, but I can honestly say it will be nice to see that .180 BA and 150+ k’s go to another team.
It has been mentioned by numerous writers at different places but again I will reiterate that the Trea Turner deal will not age well. You can’t teach speed, and he has it, but once you lose it, it won’t come back. Turner’s game is based on that skillset. Let’s see how Phillies fans feel about his contract in 5-6 years.
Heaney pitched 72 innings for the Dodgers and as a result of this injury riddled season, he still got his big dollars multi-year deal. Good for him and best of luck with Texas.
Chris Martin found himself in Dodger blue and his loss will be recognized, but the Dodgers still have a fairly deep bullpen, and if there is a need to reinforce it at the trade deadline, Friedman can trade for a “Martin-like” reliever at that time.
The oft injured Rios has shown signs of brilliance, but perhaps it was time to cut bait. His release is indicative of the thought process of the Dodger brass and that is that Miguel Vargas is going to be given a legitimate shot at being the full-time third baseman in 2023.
- The midset of the Philiies and Padres
Long Term contracts with no trade clauses can be the death of an organization. We saw it happen to the Angels. Earlier in the decade the Phillies were stuck with declining, aging vets and they eventually went through a long dry spell. The Cubs have had to retool after suffering from unwise long term deals that hamstrung the organization.
Now Philadelphia with Dombrowski is going all in (again) right now, but four years from now when Dombrowski leaves and the veterans age, they may be in a world of hurt trying to keep a competitive team on the field. But if they win two or three championships in the process, perhaps they think it was worth it. Don’t get me started on San Diego. Where A.J. Preller’s money is coming from is beyond me? With Bogaerts, Machado, and Tatis tied up long term, we’ll see how it plays out. They want that championship now. The Juan Soto acquisition for them last year buys them two years of his bat. I’ve got a feeling the Padres aren’t done yet this winter as they attempt to dethrone the Dodgers of the division title.
You’ve got gunslinging GMs and prudent ones. Friedman has shown in the past an ability to ink the right player to that long term deal, but never at risk of destroying the franchise or forcing them into rebuild mode. He isn’t immune from mistakes (see Bauer, Houston deal-Yordan Alvarez), but we can be fairly confident that five years from now the Dodgers will be amongst the top tier of competitive teams, something that they have been thoughout Friedman’s tenure.
I am looking forward to 2023 VERY MUCH!
It’s about damn time.
Nimmo back to the Mets $162m/8yrs
Wow! These contracts are nuts
Mets at 335 mil. So much for for penalties being a deterant! And they’re thinking of going higher!
That was a fun game to watch, both for the Rams winning and the Silver and Trash losing
Agree great Rams win!!!!
What a great game between two really bad teams. Like the Reds playing the Marlins. Whooooppppeeee!
Ill enjoy any win, thats what called being a fan.
Oh yeah that Super bowl was pretty sweet last year too, I know I was there….
It’s easy to call out mistakes in retrospect.
So I want to point out that many people–some here, some elsewhere in the blogosphere–said the Dodgers shouldn’t sign Bauer. It blew up in a weird way, but many people expected some sort of trouble.
As for Yordan, well, stuff happens… I assume the Dodgers must have picked up a diamond in the rough somewhere along the way.
If Jason Heyward comes back and lead the Dodgers to the title, I will give AF full credit.
Alvarez had been in the Dodger system for less than two months. Now anyone who pans that deal for a proven MLB reliever explain to me how in the wide wide world of sports was Freidman supposed to guess that a few years down the road this guy would become a monster? Nobody, not even AF has a crystal ball that says, hey, this guy is going to be really good. They screwed up not protecting Roberto Clemente back in the day.
Never gonna happen. He’s been bad for a decade.
You must be fun at parties…
Don’t know about parties but at a sports bar talking baseball and the Dodgers with other fans he is a hoot.
Good perspective Evan!
Friedman usually makes the right long term decisions for the franchise. But it is tough to see so many free agents landing with other national league teams, while the Dodgers have been quiet. Fangraphs now has the Padres, Mets, and Braves projected above the Dodgers in 2023.
I do think the Dodgers have the best value signing so far in Kershaw for only $20 million. While Shelby Miller and Heyward are low risk signings as well. Unfortunately, no other additions so far.
On your list of losses from last year, Tyler Anderson was omitted. Also Walker Buehler and Treinen are both injured and will likely miss all of 2023.
I think the Dodgers should have retained Anderson, but the unknown of Bauer and the readiness of the AAA pitchers may have influenced the ultimate decision. For the most part, aside from Anderson, I think the remaining free agent signings were overpriced, and it was wise for the Dodgers to pass. Hopefully, the market cools down, and
AF can add fairly priced pieces to the roster. Possible adds include Swanson, JT, McCutchen, Kiermaier, Senga, and Stripling. But for now, patience is required.
Its great to think that the ‘kids’ will step up and produce. And if we make playoffs that will be a great victory for not overspending. But we lost a lot of key parts that contributed to 111 wins. So lets see how it plays out.
Maybe AF is going with the pivot we’ve been talking about here for the past few weeks. The Dodgers won the WS in 2020. Yaay! In 2019 they got knocked out by a Nationals team that had a losing record in the first half. They got hot the right time. They got bounced by a Braves team that got hot at the right time. This year they got embarrassed by a team they owned during the regular season that got hot at the right time (actually the Dodgers just went cold),
Being “pigs” winds up not having a good ROI.
So, maybe, if you’re AF, you don’t try to be a regular season juggernaut. You have a good core that you round out with some highly touted rookies?
What does that look like? Vargas at 3rd. Outman in center? Busch at 2nd?
This strategy has benefits. They could thrive. It’s also pretty high risk. The Dodgers could actually be pretty mediocre and struggle to even make the playoffs. With things as they are, there are some definite holes on this team.
They lost two important right handed bats – and they’ve struggled for a while against left handed pitching. They are very thin at outfield. The starting pitching lacks proven depth. (I really doubt Bauer will be back. That is fantasy). Defense, especially in the infield, is looking very shaky.
The Dodgers have lost a LOT of players. Is this what you would call a “soft rebuild?”
And yes, in response to the back and forth with Bluto and Mark, getting under the cap is important both for the onerous taxes for repeat offenders and the draft position penalty. It’s a good opportunity to reset. I don’t know if I would reset by being 70 mil UNDER the cap (I’m subtracting Bauer’s salary), but AF’s a former Wall Street guy. He’ll figure it out.
And someone mentioned that if Bauer is reinstated the Dodgers may be on the hook for last year’s salary. Who says that? I don’t really think that’s true. That was a league decision. Why would the Dodgers be on the hook for that?
I agree with this assessment. The Bauer issue is a big consideration and making a move or two at the trade deadline gives them a chance to see what they really need and saves money.
Like Mark and others, I too am really looking forward to 2023 and seeing some younger talented but unproven players get a chance.
I like the fact that Lux’s who started somewhat slow but then explored in the middle part of the season, before injuries set him back, thrived when emulating Freddie’s approach to the plate. This was noted by numerous of you who also lamented the fact that Bellinger (who we were all rooting) for was stuck in a Ground Hog Day scenario. I was totally OK with the Dodger’s non-tendering him.
I a really hoping that Gavin Stone (with his non-pitcher prototype frame) continues to improve and shows everybody that skill and determination can overcome a lot of things in life.
Between Miller & Peipot – one of them will thrive, maybe both.
The Dodger’s will be in a race this year instead of wrapping up any suspense by June.
So more good times to be had on this website as all us “expert” and VERY opinionated pundits argue, agree, disagree with each other on why they did or did not win a particular game or series.
I can’t believe we’re going to have to suffer through another Croatia game.
Penalties just suck, but I can’t think of anything better.
Really? I was really happy that they won. I hate Brazil. Luca!
Great read Evan – thanks ! One thing that maybe is being overlooked is complacency. This team has been regular season winner for many years – 1 title to show . Time to mix it up ! Getting few young guys up , making trade for Reynolds and maybe signing a Bassitt as insurance. That would shake things up instead rolling out the same lineup for last few yrs. maybe light fire and get some new enthusiasm going. Just my 2 cents. Have Blessed Day Y’All !!
Brazil so F***ed up allowing the goal. They got greedy for a 2nd goal and allowed Croatia to have a man advantage.
Like baseball – the most talented teams don’t always win.
You have to admire the fact that Croatia is just a very experienced and resilient team.
Very nice write up Evan. Pretty much agree with your thoughts up and down the article. Many here were OK with the team having a record breaking regular season and losing in the first round to the Padres. I wasn’t one of those. By not winning the WS (or even getting there) the season was not a success. The team has been a juggernaut the past ten years and having only one title to show for it. So, with all the past success I’m fine with the Dodgers investing in their prospects by allowing them to fulfil their potential in the major leagues for the 2023 season even it means they don’t make the playoffs.
As I’ve stated many times I think Bryan Reynolds should be at the top of the list acquisition for the team, They have plenty of prospects to make it happen. He wants out. Do it. Also, I’m warming up to the McCutchen signing. He’s a RH bat with some power, can play LF, and will add some veteran leadership to the team. An OF of Betts, Reynolds, and McCutchen would be solid with Outman and Taylor as reserves. Not interested in having Thompson return. Too many strikeouts and injury prone.
If the prospects struggle then at least the FO will know who’s the real deal and who isn’t. I feel this is the year that their minor league system proves to pay dividends or has been overhyped. Play them or trade them. It will still leave plenty of talent to develop. And, AF is slowly adding to the draft selections and international monies and should continue to do so as they get under the CBA for a season or two.
They have a strong enough core of veterans as Betts, Freeman, Smith, and Muncy (and possibly McCutchen) to still allow a path to the postseason. With AF a lot can still happen to the roster in the next two months as we have seen in the past.
Carry on.
My personal thought is that we will not see any major signings of any significance until the Bauer question is settled. And I pretty much believe the arbitrator is going to rule in his favor. Then the Dodgers are on the hook for a bunch of cash. I believe we will see more moves like Heyward and Miller, and less moves like signing Correa or Swanson. I think they go after what they need by trade. And I have to believe with what I have seen so far, they are in no hurry to do so otherwise, we might have seen a trade during the meetings. Trea Turner gave his reasons for picking Philly. He said he felt very comfortable there. He gets to play on the same team with his former teammate, Harper. And he liked how he would look in the Phillies uniform. But what impressed him the most was the Phils run to the World Series. The fire and grit they showed getting there. Money was important, but a secondary consideration to feeling comfortable where he was.
Right now:
C–Smith/Barnes
1B–Freeman
2B–Taylor/Busch
SS–Lux
3B–Muncy/Taylor
LF–Vargas/Heyward
CF–Outman/Trayce
RF–Betts
Vargas is going to get the first shot at 3rd. The kid is no outfielder. Neither is Lux and I for one am glad that experiment is over. They will sign another outfielder before opening day.
Brian Reynolds’s, dansby swanson and Rodon . Send Miller, pages and two lesser prospects to Pittsburgh. Let outman man center field! Maybe include gonsolin in Reynolds’s trade. Vargas to third and we’re done. Please resign Jt also! Anyone else get the sneaky suspicion pads might trade tatis once he’s reinstated? I would. Might be a extraordinary talent but not so much upstairs! Can’t see them choosing tatis over Soto. I just don’t feel good about Gavin at shortstop. Think if he struggles defenesively it will take a big toll on his offense. We are absolutely not the best team in the national league at this moment. Not even close! But maybe couple weeks from now I will change my mind.
Reynolds would play CF if acquired. Outman would either play LF or be 4th OF.
JT wouldn’t be a bad full-time DH.
Totally agree that the Pads are setting themselves up for a Tatis trade. I don’t know how many teams are going to line up to get him directly after shoulder surgery so they might have to wait until July or next winter to do it, but I’d be very surprised to see him in a SD uni in 2024.
I think how he handled things last year made both management and his teammates feel they’d just as soon not have him there.
Assuming that Machado opts out next year, there is no way they let him leave. They’ll just tack on some extra years and $ and keep him happy. Then it comes down to Soto or Tatis, long term.
Tatis has a no-trade clause, but he’ll be so unhappy with being pushed to the outfield that he’ll gladly except a trade to a contender with an opening at shortstop.
Hmm… Wonder who has that meed?
Rodon is seeking a 7-year deal. No way he gets signed by the Dodgers. Tatis is going nowhere. He has a huge 13-year contract for huge money. His attitude and the length and amount of the deal would seriously limit any team interested in his services. They are going to move him to the outfield anyway. Swanson at this point in time with the Bauer thing hanging over their heads is not an option. Even if Tatis was put on the market, no way SD would trade him in division. They would most likely get him out of the NL entirely. Bosox and Yankees would have the cash.
Bingo
Unrelated, that INT by Derek Carr was the worst pass I’ve ever seen.
Apparently, there has been minimal talks between Swanson and the Braves. Depending where Carols Correa ends up, Swanson might end up being a bargain; i.e. Freddie Freeman last year.
I predict there will be signings but Friedman is going to wait to exploit bargain opportunities.
Mostly of the minor league type like Heywood. My prediction is they do not make a major move at all until next year sometime before spring training starts. Bank on it.
Even without interest from the Braves, there will still be a number of teams who are looking to upgrade at shortstop. Not sure what your definition of “bargain” is but I’ll bet you Swanson winds up signing for more than was first predicted before the Winter Meetings.
I do not think the Dodgers want anything to do with Free Agents that have the QO.
No to Swanson! I believe the Dodgers will not sign a player with the QO attached, therefore, it can only be Carlos Correa!
How about a 3-Year $140 Million dollar deal with an opt-out after year 2.
How about Julio Iglesias? 2 years/$12-14M.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POWt6dxrUtM
Trevor pitching to Cape Cod League D1 Kids
Hopefully it’s not the only type of pitching in Bauer’s future.
It’s funny because it’s anal sex.
Thanks for sharing that. Looked fun.
Could not be more upset at the cheap path of this ownership group, the thought of going below the luxury tax is a joke. They raise my cost to attend games every day seemingly and now cry poor? The Padres are proving all teams make tremendous amounts plus build infinite value. We should be on par with the Mets not the A’s in terms of spenidng. Hello third place
I don’t think it’s crying poor. Probably more about draft picks, both domestic and international. Go over several years in a row and dip under when you can to reset penalties. The Yankees did just that recently and so have the Red Sox. Mets are new to spending over the cap and so are the Phillies and the Padres. The way to get prices to go down is to stop showing up.
Im pretty that was a joke B&P
Cheap?>???? They have spent a ton of money to this point trying to keep this team competitive while continually picking at the bottom of the draft. Typical uneducated fan crying about money that is not his not being spent willy nilly.