Now that the smoke has cleared, we can see pretty clearly that things have changed. Let’s consider what has happened or likely will happen:
- Craig Kimbrel is gone (YAY);
- Justin Turner’s option was not picked up;
- Andrew Heaney is likely gone;
- David Price allegedly retired;
- Danny Duffy is likely gone;
- Jimmy Nelson is likely gone;
- Blake Treinen is not a factor in 2023;
- Chris Martin is on the market and could be re-signed or gone;
- Tommy Kahnle is on the market and could be re-signed or gone; and
- The great Clayton Kershaw will be back for one more year.
The Dodgers also have Yency Almonte, Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Alex Vesia, and Caleb Ferguson on the roster, giving them plenty of firepower in the bullpen. Daniel Hudson and Victor González are expected to make full recoveries after missing most of the 2022 season. Phil Bickford is still on the roster, as is Justin Bruihl (at least today). Mike Grove, Andre Jackson, and Ryan Pepiot all have MLB stuff. Then, there are Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, Ronan Kopp, Nick Frasso, Carlos Duran, and Emmet Shehan… anyone of whom could make that “leap.” The bullpen will be fine…
I thought that Clayton Kershaw might want to finish his career at home in Dallas so he could be at home and experience pitching at home, but it has become pretty obvious that Clayton bleeds Dodger Blue and wants to end his career as the greatest Dodger Pitcher of all-time – as if he isn’t that already! 3,000 strikeouts are probably out of reach NEXT year, but 200 wins as a Dodger is extremely likely (he only needs three). Clayton Kershaw will go down in history as the greatest Dodger pitcher of all time.
The Dodgers did offer Tyler Anderson the Qualifying offer, and it is rumored that they’re trying to work out a multi-year deal (I would guess $45 Million/3-Years would be about right). He would return to the rotation along with Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin… providing rest is all Tony needs to recover (we simply have no idea at this point). However, Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller, and Ryan Pepiot are all knocking on the door. You can make an argument for any of the three to make the rotation:
- Ryan Pepiot – He started seven games in 2022 and had a 3.47 ERA, striking out 42 batters in 36 innings. His problem is obvious – he also walked or hit 30 batters. He averaged 6.7 BB per 9 IP. The main thing keeping him out of the rotation is the walks. He possesses a great changeup to go with a good fastball, but for it to be effective, he has to throw strikes with the fastball. Easy to identify the “fix” – Not so easy to do. In Clayton Kershaw’s first 278 IP, he allowed 4.5 BB per 9 IP, and the next year, he dialed it back to 2.1. If Pepiot can do that (cut his walks in half), he will be a solid starter. Otherwise, he is destined for the bullpen.
- Bobby Miller – If you look at his ERA and look at him pitch, you will scratch your head because his 4.25 ERA in no way represents his pitching ability. His 1.198 WHIP is much better than his ERA. He averaged three walks per 9 IP. In 112 IP, he struck out 145. His 100 MPH fastball may be a little straight, but it is 100 MPH! He has five-plus pitches and a big starter-like body (6′ 5″/220 lbs). This is a guy (in my opinion) who will just suddenly turn into a monster overnight! It could be 2023… or later.
- Gavin Stone – He already is that monster! Gavin is a year older than Bobby Miller and, at 24, is “MLB Ready.” He does not possess a big “starters body” (neither did Pedro), but he is 6′ 1″ and 175. He started the year in 2022 at Great Lakes (25 IP), moved to Tulsa (73 IP), and finished at OKC (23 IP). Overall, he pitched 121 innings with a 1.48 ERA and 168 Strikeouts. He did walk 3.3 batters per 9 IP. I will not be surprised in the least if he is in the rotation very early in the season.
The Dodgers will likely be connected with Justin Verlander, but that ain’t happening… at least, I don’t see it. You can get Tyler Anderson for three years for what Justin Verlander wants for one year! If the Dodgers go into the season with Urias, Kershaw, May, Anderson, Gonsolin, Stone, Pepiot, and Miller all healthy, I cannot see Verlander (or any other free-agent pitcher) being on the team.
The Free Agents
If you watch (and believe) Trea Turner’s “Hype Video” narrated by Joe Hamm, you have to figure he will get at least a Billion Dollar Contract! This is where it all starts. The Dodger’s questions are what happens with Bellinger, Justin Turner, and Trea Turner? They have to be answered… and soon!
Arizona Fall League Championship Games
The Glendale Desert Dogs, led by Noelivi Marte and Andy Pages, won the “Play in” Game to the AFL Championship Game by beating the Peoria Javelinas 6-3. Pages was 2-3 with a double and 2 RBI to go with a walk. Pages hit #3, while Jose Ramos was the cleanup hitter (he went 0-4). Glendale will meet the Surprise Saguaros in the championship game Saturday at Scottsdale Stadium. The first pitch is set for 8 p.m. ET, live on the MLB Network and MLB.com. Marte was the best prospect of the four that the Reds received for Luis Castillo. Andy Pages hit .296 with 5 HR and 14 RBI (.904 OPS) in the AFL this fall.
As I write this, here is what is happening in Indianapolis:
Who’s the guy who said Kersh was going to retire LAST year. If we sign Bellinger then no Judge. And I think TT ends up in Philly. Do you like our young pitching better or the young position plsyers? So I think the strategy is to go in as a wild card team. It hasnt been working going in as the best team!
Kershaw makes a lot of sense. He wins his games during the season and will go on the IL a few times to give the young pitchers a chance.
I really like our pitching going into next year. May will come along and Gonsolin looked very good and Urias is very solid. Wish we had a workhorse type.
I thought he would be gone for the past two years.
Belli will cost maybe $18 Million. Judge will cost $320 Million. How does Belli affect Judge? They also play different positions.
I like our young pitchers AND our young position players.
How do you downsize and go in as a Wild Card team?
Sarcasm!
Global warming!
I’m all in on Dodger youth movement. What did a 111 win season get us, NOTHING?
Yep, it always ends the same way anyways.
I am 100% in agreement with Keith Law. The best team does not always win. Sometimes the Best Team Wins and sometimes the Hot Team wins, but you keep rolling them out there every year.
One for ten isnt good even for a crapshoot
It is in the MLB. Not many teams even win one. Ya have to get there first, LA has been 3 times in the last 10 seasons, won one, cheated out of another, and lost when they were certainly not the best team.
I see the Dodgers acquiring at least one more veteran SP via the FA market. Eflin, Grienke, Taillon, Stripling, a return of Danny Duffy, someone of that caliber to round out the rotation and to fill a gap while the likes of Stone, Pepiot, Miller etc. further develop.
I do not see Bellinger getting tendered, but if he does I wouldn’t be horribly disappointed, but he needs a bounce back that might be aided by the no shift rule. Joc got a QO so Farhan must think he will also improve with the no shift. $19.6 million for JP? Farhan has money to burn………….
That was such a dumb move. No one was going to give Joc $19.6.
Our issue is October. We don’t need April-September pitchers. All or nothing on starting pitching!
Yes 111 wins didn’t prove anything. So Our goal for next year should be to win about 90 games so we have better chance in October. OK so Kershaw back. Trea I say 0% chance to sign. That’s the odds I gave us for signing Freeman. Bellinger back. JT back at reduced rate. These are predictions based on what I think will happen, not what Many think SHOULD happen. Judge no, Verlander no.
I may be in the minority, but my goal when playing was to win every game! Did it happen? No, but my high school football team (Jupiter FL), of which I was captain, was undefeated my senior year (1961). It is still the only undefeated football team in Jupiter History! Play to win. Don’t set a goal of winning 90 games, or even 112 games. Play to win every game. It won’t happen, but let that be your goal.
Sorry. Sarcasm not clear enough in my post
Absolutely,you set your roster to be the best 1-26 you can.You want to go 162 -0.That is silly to hope to win less games.It was a great season and it was fun.But sure if we won 90 games and won the World Series would be awesome.But I would take my chances winning 111 games over us winning 90 .And that’s the bottom line.
That’s right. I think the Dodgers do that. Win today, every day and forget about yesterday. That’s a good philosophy.
I say Judge yes! Bellinger No! Get this sorry has been out, he will not improve Bellinger’s time is up sooner or later he would end up just like his sorry ass father Clay Bellinger who was absolutely a horrible baseball player & should have stayed in the minor leagues! Just look up his MLB stats. Cody Bellinger was a 1 hit wonder Rookie of the year that’s it! Oh yeah one other year when he hit 47 homeruns & batted .305 after that he became an absolute nobody. Just like his father Clay!
I want this in 2023:
1 Julio
2 Burnes
3 Bauer
4 Kershaw
5 May
Stone
Miller
OK, who do the Dodgers trade for Burnes? Remember, he has two years of control.
I think it’s something like Miller, Stone, Busch, and Outman!
Gonsolin, Pepiot, Busch, Outman, Jackson
All reports say they are talking to JT about a one-year deal. But we will see. Cubs have Bellinger on their radar according to a blurb I read on Yahoo sports. They consider him a GG CF and the same at 1st.
The Dodgers know that Belli will have plenty of offers if they non tender him and he might just take it to start new with another team. I also heard the Mets were keeping an eye on him as well as the Jays.
Expected Clayton Kershaw to return.
Don’t expect the Dodgers to land an Aaron Judge or Justin Verlander.
I think they would like to bring back Trea Turner. But I don’t expect him back. Gavin Lux will probably be at short. Not sure how they replace Trea’s production.
Justin Turner gets re-signed.
Tyler Anderson comes back on a multi-year deal.
The young pitchers will play a big role in 2023. The starting rotation will be very good and so and so will the bullpen.
Cody Bellinger is back in center. His bat will get better.
The best team doesn’t always win, but the Dodgers will again win a lot of games. I actually think the starting pitching will be better. I do expect them to add to the bullpen.
In 3 months of so, Spring Training will start for the pitchers and catchers. The pitchers will be starting to get stretched out and build arm strength over the next 7 months so they will be capable of going their required 5 innings and 85 pitches by the post season.
Bob Feller enlisted in the US Navy one day after Pearl Harbor in 1941. He didn’t pitch professionally for the next 1,428 days. When he took the mound for the first time back on August 24, 1945, in Cleveland, Rapid Robert threw a complete game, 4 hitter to beat Detriot 4 to 2. He reported he “felt strong at the end of the game”. He was well rested. That was well before pitch counts but my guess is that he threw more than 85 pitches.
God Bless all of our Veterans. Thank you for your service.
I almost forgot this. Thanks for the reminder, Phil Jones.
We vets appreciate it Mark
Love it! Thanks Mark, for always supporting our vets on this site.
I agree with everything you said Mark about the pitching above this quote and I agree with some of this.
“Phil Bickford is still on the roster, as is Justin Bruihl (at least today). Mike Grove, Andre Jackson, and Ryan Pepiot all have MLB stuff. Then, there are Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, Ronan Kopp, Nick Frasso, Carlos Duran, and Emmet Shehan… anyone of whom could make that “leap.” The bullpen will be fine…”
Bickford and Pepiot will be on the 40 man roster as you said. I see Bruihl, Grove, Jackson as trade chips and there is no room on the 40 man roster when factoring in others and the fact that the pitching should be stacked without those guys. Then the minor league pitchers, some of those guys are still in the lower levels of the minor leagues and will not be a factor in 2023 plus there won’t be any room for them. But I am high on Miller, Sheehan, and especially Stone. Those 3 could/probably will be a factor in 2023 especially Stone. And yes the bullpen will be fine and that is coming from someone that has bitched about the bullpen in the past for good reasons.
And I agree with what you said about Pepiot, Miller, Stone.
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I do think the Dodgers will go all in on Trea Turner and outbid everyone to keep him. How many players can hit for average and power and have the speed Turner has?
As I said I think yesterday, the free agent position player market kind of sucks, therefore the ones that stand out will get huge contracts. Therefore I think the Dodgers should keep Trea Turner obviously and also Bellinger and J. Turner. Leaving LF as the only hole to be filled and I’d like to see Outman get his opportunity in LF. But I also would like for Friedman to pursue Judge and if he lands Judge then either Bellinger or Outman to the bench, preferably Bellinger.
Betts
T Turner
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Outman
J Turner
Lux
Bellinger
Or
Betts
T Turner
Freeman
Judge
Smith
Muncy
Outman
J Turner
Lux
I think Trea Turner will get close to $400 Million… You still in?
400 million? No. His defense is suspect and he’s not in his mid 20’s.
Just checked, 30 in June.
8 years/220, 240 max
Oops my math was off.
8 years/260-280, possibly 9 years/292.5-315 maximum. 32.5-35 million per year averaged.
I’m sticking with my 0% chance of signing Trea. 99% for JT. 82% for Beli. 88% for Anderson. And PLEEEEASE my post about trying to win 90 games was a joke.!!!
Ok ,I thought u may have had a vision.It’s ok we all bleed blue and have the same goal.
Houston Astros were the best team in 22.
lol. Yep, this is one of the many times that the best team (Record) didn’t win, but the next best, in the other league won. Duh, most of the time one of the two best teams win, unless Doc is managing one of them.
Depends upon the criteria.
If winning the World Series is the determining criterion, then they are the best team.
At the end of the 162 Games, the Dodgers were the best, but they weren’t the best in the next four games.
If you stop and think about it, those four playoff games defined their whole season, not the 162.
If you happen to believe that 11 wins at the end of the season makes you the best team out of about 180 games played by then, that is your prerogative. It does make you the World Series Winner, but that does not mean you are the best team. It simply means that you won the World Series… which is quite an accomplishment.
The team with the best record does not win the World Series 80% of the time. I can see both sides of the coin. There are teams that have the best record and there are teams that win the Word Seres and they are the same 20% of the time. We all know how random baseball is. 1″ further and an out is a HR and that determines who the best team is? That’s silly. However, it can determine the World Series Champion.
Is most wins the best team? They didn’t have the same schedule. Maybe if we swapped places with Astros they win 120 games
I’m not too keen on the Starting Pitching market. You can get and old and / or often injured stud that hasn’t had great postseason success or a reclamation project. I prefer the latter considering the Prior’s track record. Clayton, Urias, May and Gonsolin are a very good start and they have a QO attached to Anderson. They could just go with Grove and Pepiot if they can’t bring in Anderson. No use worrying about starting pitching until Anderson rejects his QO.
I just want a really good right handed hitter between Freeman and Muncy.
I thought Andre Jackson looked pretty damn good after he went on the developmental list. He has great stuff. He needs to focus on the pen and forget about starting.
totally agree about a big RH bat between Freeman and Muncy. Should be at the top of the list for the offseason.
On the pitching side I want to see deGrom in Dodger blue. My reasoning behind: Dodgers need that top of the heave starter who gets the ball at least twice in a postseason series. deGrom has injury concerns but when right he is the best starter in the game. With him and Julio we would have a devastating 1-2 punch.
With our kids Stone, Miller, Pepiot etc. ready to step in when needed we could ration deGroms innings, keeping him fresh for the stretch run and playoffs.
We do not need more innings eaters, we need top talent . To eat innings we have the kids if needed.
I say no to JT and yes to Belli. Bellis average will rise just because of the shift. He has a GG in center and will hit 20-25 HRS even if his swing can not be cured. I take that over JT every day . Vargas has all the tools to replace JT at the dish and in the field. Use JT money saved on top talent like deGrom and the big RH bat.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!