The 162-game marathon is complete, and what an exciting season it has been, especially for us in Dodger land. Sure, we could have hoped for a record-breaking 117 wins, bet we’ll go ahead and settle for 111. What a great number! It’s so uniform and easy to remember. Clayton Kershaw just passed Cy Young on the all-time strikeout list. At this rate, he’ll get to the magic number of 3,000 within the next two seasons. Former Dodger Albert Pujols finished the season with a respectable 24 homers in just 307 at-bats and an OPS of .895! I’m really hoping he and the Cards come to an agreement for one more year when he’ll pass Babe Ruth on the all-time list. Albert’s 703 is just 11 homers shy of the Babe. Not to be outdone, future Dodger Aaron Judge finished with 62, topping Maris’ clean single-season home run record by just one homer. Maris hit no 61 on the very last day of the season.
With 111 wins, the Dodgers solidified the top seed and home-field advantage throughout the postseason. Their reward is a tougher postseason schedule than the three other teams that earned a “Bye”. Great job, Manfred! I guess he’s more focused on game times to generate interest in the sport instead of seeing the best teams play each other in a best-of-seven series.
Many people that don’t work for good old boys club suggested that teams are re-seeded after the Wild Card round. There wasn’t time on the schedule to discuss such matters when they’re discussing larger bases, pitch clocks, and how many times a pitcher can try to pick a runner off base, I guess.
Looking at the Bracket for the 2022 MLB Postseason, one thing really stands out to me. More often than not, there will be a Wildcard Team with a better record than the worst Division Leader. In fact, this seems to happen every year. It was a big miss that MLB didn’t see this and have a rule in place to give the team with the best record advantage over the second seed. Se la vie.
Our reward for winning 111 games this year is that we will be the only team that will likely have to play two 100-win teams just to get to the World Series and a 106-win team should we succeed in getting there. Should we become victorious, it will be a historic postseason victory to go along with a historic regular season. If we fail, we’ll be remembered as one of the best teams not to win a championship. Nothing more than a footnote in the annals of baseball history.
The Wild Card Round
The Wild Card Series will be different and fun this year. Instead of a one-game, winner takes all matchup for all the teams that are gifted a mulligan; a three-game series will decide who advances to the next round. The Wild Card with the best record and the Division Winner with the worst record will be the home teams, and the 2nd and 3rd Wild Cards will be the visiting teams, with the top two Wild Cards playing each other and the worst Division Winner hosting the worst Wild Card.
Beginning today, there are four games a day for at least the first two days. Should a team win the first two, the series is over, and they’ll get another rest day before advancing to the Division Series.
The Blue Jays will face off against the Mariners in a matchup of former expansion teams that joined the league together in 1977. I think the Mariners are the better team all around, but the Blue Jays get to play in their yard. Both teams are loaded with youngsters. The Jays have the bats, and the M’s have the pitching. I would usually take pitching over hitting, but not this time. The Jays at home will be a tough opponent, and the M’s are just too young and inexperienced. Neither will get by the Asterisks, but I do think the Jays will prevail, largely because they’ve been together a little longer and have one of baseball’s best lineups.
The team formerly known as the Indians surprised everyone this year, and they’ll need to stay hot to get past the Rays. The Rays have been there before, but this team isn’t quite as strong as their recent playoff teams. They have the arms but not the bats. The Wahoos make a lot of contact and don’t strike out a lot. Their lack of experience will be their biggest shortcoming besides their lack of power. But I think they’ll prevail against the Rays this time out mostly because the Rays have the worst lineup of all playoff teams, which will be a tough ask to outscore the Wahoos at home.
The Cardinals are a very good team, playing at home, and will most likely dismantle the Phillies. The Phillies are like a beer league softball team. They can mash, but they don’t have gloves and not a lot of pitching depth. They’re the worst of all the playoff teams but can score against anyone. The Cardinals have a lot of weapons, play great defense, and have a very strong middle of the order with the resurgence of “The Machine.” They might just give the Braves a run for their money. At home, this is no contest.
Last but not least, the Padres and the Mets battle it out in New York. The Padres seem like they should be better. They have some big names, a couple of great hitters surrounded by some good to very good ones. They also have a solid rotation. But this season just seems a mess for them. They were lucky enough to hold it together just enough to claim a wildcard, but they often take two steps forward and then one step back. The Mets lineup seems vulnerable without Marte. The Padres have enough talent to upset the Mets, who haven’t looked very mighty in recent weeks. Both teams finished the season by going 5-5 in their last 10 with something to play for. I see upset written all over this series.
My Picks
Sad Diego Padres over the not-so-mighty Mets. I’m really hoping for the upset here, and I think the Padres are poised to deliver. They seemed to be sleepwalking through the regular season but have a good amount of talent on the roster. The Mets are a different team without Marte, and the Padres have enough pitching to make it tough on the Mets.
The Wahoos over the Rays. I think the Wahoos are going to beat the Rays mostly because the Rays’ offense is non-existent. The Wahoos have a team that makes a ton of contact and runs the bases well. They’re playing at home, and their pitching is close to what the Rays have. The Rays have recent postseason experience on their side, but it’s not enough to get past the Wahoos at home.
The Blue Jays over the Mariners. Yes, the M’s have the better pitching staff, but the Jays have one of the best offenses in the league, and they have the advantage of home-field. The Mariners are what the Jays were two years ago. They are up and coming and will be much better going forward. They’ll need to gain valuable postseason experience before they compete legitimately in the postseason.
The Cardinals will dismantle the Phillies. This is the easiest pick for me. The Phillies just can’t play defense, but they sure have some bats. The Cardinals are a complete team. They hit, field, and have just enough pitching, especially in the bullpen. It’ll be fun to watch one of the best defensive teams against one of the worst.
What series will you be watching this weekend?
Mets-Padres because it is the only series at this point which directly affects the Dodgers fortunes. And I want to see Scherzer lose. I posted late last night several additions to the Dodger roster. Most notable being Blake Treinen, who came out of his session feeling good. Edwin Rios also was recalled along with James Outman. Most likely these guys will be at the Arizona training site, ready for action should there be an injury. Also Gallo has made the post season roster. So has Kimbrel.
Has the postseason roster been announced yet or is that your guess? I agree on both.
Roberts said the other day that Gallo was making the roster. Stands to reason based on his last three outings that Kimbrel is going to make it too. If not, I stand corrected. But my guess is that he is on the roster. They are not going to load it up with untested players.
Did they just announce those two or the whole roster? Can’t figure out why they would announce roster decisions this early and before they even know which team they’re playing.
Here is the Roster:
https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/roster
These 34 players will likely be in LA until the Dodgers First game so as to facilitate scrimmages, etc. The final 26-Man roster will come from this pool.
Looking forward to a full day of baseball today. Let the games begin.
Why the Dodgers will win the World Series in 2022:
* It’s a team with veterans who know how to win. Of the 100 win seasons in Dodgers franchise history, four have come in the past six seasons.
* We can pitch. We lead the Majors in ERA. The bullpen is loaded with arms, especially LHP. We can mix and match like no other team.
* The lineup can be dangerous and relentless with past MVP’s
* The Dodgers are the best team in baseball and have been all year.
* We stay injury free throughout the playoffs
* We play selfless team baseball by moving runners, timely hitting and solid defense. Make routine plays, routinely.
The Dodgers could lose because:
* The bats can struggle with quality pitching. In our losses we hit .200. The faucet can be wide open but can shut off for stretches.
* The bottom of the order fails to hit and K’s too much.
* Doc makes questionable moves. He’s been good all year but pulls a dead rabbit out of his hat.
* We just run into a hot team in a short series. It’s hard to win the World Series and that’s why there are no repeat winners since 2000.
* Shit happens. They say they all even out but maybe not in a 5 or 7 games series. Luck is in play.
The Dodgers don’t have glaring weaknesses. So the most likely reason they don’t win the World Series has more to do with what another team could do rather than what LA can’t do.
I think we win it all!
I would pitch around Freeman every chance I get. Smith will be critical behind him. A short series can magnify a bad week for any player. 1 for 15 in July is meaningless. 1 for 15 in the playoffs and you’re a goat.
Big time players show up in critical times. We have big-time players. We just stay with our process, take care of our business one play, one pitch, one AB, one game at a time. Stay in the present and do your job. Our veterans know how.
Jorbit Vivas is on fire in the AFL (.545) while Ben Harris blew his second save opportunity.
Looks like Jorbit leapfrogged Leonard this year.
My opening series 26 man roster: (versus either SD or NYM)
Pitching:
1. Urias L – first game starter
2. Kershaw – L
3. Anderson – L
4. Gonsolin – R (if healthy, over Heaney, mostly being a RHSP)
RHRP:
5. Phillips – (just steady Eddie in any situation. No split issues)
6. Martin – (no split issues. Better than his stats)
7. Graterol – (not a late innings guy for me. Can’t miss bats. Lowest K% in the pen. LHB hit .292)
8. Kahnle – (super effective change. LHB hit .154 & RHB hit .077)
9. Almonte over Kimbrel – (Almonte, reverse splits, very tough vs LHB (0.73)
LHRP:
10. Heaney – I like him better as a starter. Great strike out guy (40%) Too many dingers, bother me.
11. Vesia – (great strike out %. LHB hit .130)
12. Price – (reverse splits. Experience)
#13 May, if healthy or Bickford
Kimbrel has no role for me. Any soft landing situation would go to anybody but him. He’s had a couple of decent appearances lately but I don’t trust him. That won’t happen as I think AF may not want to admit his signing sucked.
Position Players:
Smith
Barnes
Freeman
Lux
Trea Turner
Justin Turner
Max Muncy
Mookie Betts
Cody Bellinger
Trayce Thompson
Chris Taylor
Alberto – (defense anywhere, .272 vs LHP and great clubhouse guy. He’s earned it)
Gallo – (.177 v RHP, .114 v LHP, with massive power potential)
Gallo will make the roster over Vargas. Not to overreact to 1 game but Gallo’s homer last Tuesday night and Vargas’ misplay on a fly ball, while hitting .170, sealed the deal. I wanted Vargas on the roster but Gallo wins out for this round at least.
In a 5 game series, they may chose to go with 12 pitchers and keep Vargas to pinch hit. But I doubt it.
* I looked at where these players have hit their best in the lineup this season. With that information, here’s my suggestions for who starts and hits where: Obviously the opponent’s rotation and bullpen will dictate, but in general:
versus RHP
* The top 4 are no-brainers. Smith must protect Freeman
* Muncy’s in the 5 hole and must produce. He’s better lately and that must continue.
* JT in the 6 hole where he’s hitting .309
* Belli in center in the 7 hole. He never leaves the lineup despite his struggles at the plate, due his is defense, speed, hustle and base running. He looks to have sometimes cut down on the “swing from his ass every swing” approach. His timing has been good lately and he isn’t tardy and having to swing too hard. He hits his best at .234 in the 7 hole.
* Lux, at 2nd, in the 8 hole. He breaks up the 3 outcome guys and hits .333 in the 8 hole. He has no split issues. *
* Thompson in left, in the 9 hole. As we all know, he has massive reverse splits. He hits .295 v RHP so it’s a no brainer.
I don’t see any line up with Belli, Thompson, CT3 and Gallo in the game in any order, back-to-back. Whiffest.
versus LHP:
CT3 in left, in the 8 hole, replacing Thompson. This is by default actually. He hits .200 vs LHP but it’s better then Thompson (.169 and Gallo at .114) CT3’s defense is okay and his whiff rate is 36%, not great but not 50%. I have no starts for CT3 other then left and maybe for defense late for Lux at 2nd.
* Lux at 2nd and the 9 hole where he hits .283 v LHP.
* Gallo is a pinch hitter and a defensive replacement unless there is a match up where he owns a guy.
That’s a winning lineup for me.
1. Miguel Vargas should not be on the playoff roster as he was never really given a change (rightfully so) and he needs to learn LF; and
2. I think if you limit Heaney to 2 innings at a time, his HR’s will go down considerably. Most of his HR have came in his 3rd or 4th innings.
Both are good observations.
Marte will be on the Mets roster.
I will be really mad if someone like Almonte or CMartin is left out for Kimbrel.
Me too.
DFA Kimbrel before Fallito gets mad!
Mark T. may get mad too, if Kimbrel makes the roster IIRC
I don’t get mad, I’ll just call AF bad names
How was Hawaii!??!?!?!/
According to the Athletic yesterday (October 7, 2022)
“Dodgers haven’t made a decision on whether Craig Kimbrel will be on the postseason roster. Andrews Friedman said.”
Luis Castillo into the 7th so far shutting out Toronto.
THIS is why I (and a couple others) wanted to trade for him back in July.
I was one of those who wanted AF to get Castillo, perhaps in a package with Drury.
But when the Seattle deal was reported, it was obvious that Seattle was willing to pay a pretty steep price: four prospects in all, including three of their top five! That’s bold. (I can’t imagine AF giving up 3 of his top TEN prospects for any pitcher not named Ohtani.)
DiPoto recently locked Castillo up with a big contract to ensure he’d be the Mariners’ ace for years to come. Seattle now has 3 starters in Castillo, Ray and Gilbert who match up pretty well against any rival trio. Kudos to DiPoto.
The Dodgers SP ranks look pretty good for the next few years. While they don’t need anything, I’d be impressed if AF did something truly bold. Of course he’s succeeded without being really that bold. The deals for Mookie and Scherzer-Trea were big but not that bold.
The Reds picked up three prime prospects for Castillo.
What would it take to land Hunter Green?
I have watched all the games today and plan to watch as many as possible. It’s the postseason. It’s an opportunity to check out the possible competition for the Dodgers on the road to the World Series. I caught a few innings of the Cleveland-TB game while at the gym this AM. Bieber, as expected, was very impressive.
The St Louis-Philadelphia game was fairly uneventful until the last couple of innings. The Philly manager pulled a past playoff Roberts move when he pulled Wheeler after 6.1 innings and 96 pitches. These were about Wheeler’s season averages. But, he had only allowed four hits and a walk and was very effective. He brought in a reliever who after getting an out, walked a batter, and then allowed a home run. I will never accept pitching moves based on stats when a pitcher is being effective. Even though I can’t stand Alex Rodriguez, I agree with his reasoning that pitching moves should not be made 5 hours before the game by the front office. Let your eyes determine your decision to make a change. Let Wheeler continue until he proves he isn’t being effective.
The Cardinal manager had his turn to make a poor pitching decision. First, I didn’t know who the St Louis manager was. He looked like a deer in the headlights. He kept conferring with his bench coach, Skip Schumaker. I’m sure it isn’t true, but Schumaker gave off this attitude of “your the manager, make a decision”. He didn’t show much interest to help out his young, inexperienced manager. Gallegos came in to pitch for St Louis in the 7th and got three up, three down. He came back out for the 8th and walked the first hitter. Apparently, that was enough for Marmol (manager) to expose his closer to pitch the last 1 2/3 innings. Hensley closed out the eighth, but lost his stuff in the ninth. Soft contact and walks lead to six runs for the Phillies to win the game. Again, Rodriguez made a couple of more comments that I agreed with (I’m starting to question myself). He stated that contact is paramount in the playoffs. The three result approach to hitting doesn’t cut it. Rodriguez’s thoughts were validated when the Phillies scored those six runs with two walks and three hits (none of which were hit harder than 88 MPH). With the bottom of the Dodgers’ lineup here’s hoping their frightening strikeout rate can be reduced.
Many in the media have declared St Louis a terrific baseball town with knowledgeable fans. So, riddle me this. If they’re such great fans why did we see thousands leaving after the top of the ninth? It’s the playoffs! It’s a special time of the baseball season where historic memories can be made i.e. – Kirk Gibson’s HR while with hundreds of red tail lights leaving the stadium. I would never leave a playoff/World Series game no matter what the score. You can’t be a part history if you aren’t there to observe history. I just found it odd to see that in St Louis.
Anxious to watch the Padres and Mets. Let’s hope their pitching staffs are overused and as mentioned above all the games go at least 15 innings.
Philjones, I continue to enjoy your contributions to the site. Hopefully, you’re healing up OK. I was away on vacation and LADT for a few days. I was sorry to hear of Harold’s passing. He helped to peak my interest in Dodger prospects with his objective and detailed information he brought to this site. To think someone in Nova Scotia was such a big Dodger fan and had an amazing interest in MiLB was very special. Shout outs to Mark, Evan, Bear and others for their kind words and insight about Harold.
Carry on.
Thanks TR, I’m glad you enjoy my posts. You too always bring good stuff as well, that I enjoy reading
B&P I don’t know what you that others don’t, but I’m surprised that you think St. Louis is a slam dunk with Wheeler and Nola pitching. From manager to defense, the Cardinal “way” looked like a Little League game today.
Dude, they were up 2-0 in the ninth and a guy that throws 100 with a 1.25 ERA shit himself. Is that going to be the norm? The Cards choked it all away. Incredible. Perhaps the best defensive team in baseball choked two balls away in the same inning. That game was gifted to the Phillies and it might cost the Cardinals the series.
Padres all over Max, he!
4 HRS ALLOWED BY MAX!!!
OUCHHH!!!
gettin tatooed!!
Now hopefully the Mets offense wakes up and gets to the Padres bullpen
Maybe this is what Max with a dead arm looks like…
Deadhead!
Hey Max,
It’s the Dodgers fault …
You jackass!
43 million a year and he couldn’t win either of the two biggest games of the year, against the Braves and Pads. The Mets are struck with him for two more years.
Couldnt happen to a nicer guy! What did the Mets do to him this year? Couldnt be his fault!
All the home teams lost except Cleveland.
Darvish looked fantastic last night.
That was the Darvish we needed 2017.
Max ? Not so. Lol.
DeGrom today in a do or die game for NY. Gonna be interesting….
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!
I prefer to think that Darvish was a victim of Trashtro treachery.
Rooting for Mets now, because a 3-game series helps the Dodgers.
Go Pads!!!!!!
Go Mets.
Ya, today, go Mets, with a score like 10-8.
Yes, Mets today, Padres tomorrow. Extra innings both games.
Max imploded. Helsley imploded. Arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball and the best relief pitcher. Nothing is certain in the playoffs.
I’m glad we aren’t playing in a 3 game series. Hard to recover when you put your best out there, they get shelled and you now have an elimination game.
It is nice to see Scherzer getting his just rewards.
https://twitter.com/doyersdave/status/1578583946505248769?s=46&t=R4YZH3JRvJkuXEzfhkaqQw
I hope that tweet is a parody of some sort.
If that’s a sincere quote I am actually embarrassed for the guy.