Winning 106 games ain’t what it used to be. The Dodgers have been in the playoffs for nine consecutive years, but it was a shock to learn that before this run (which is not over), the longest stretch for consecutive years for the Dodgers to be in the playoffs was two! TWO. 2! Wow! What a run this has been. Yes, the Dodgers did not win the division, but it wasn’t for the lack of trying. Of course, there are idiots (actually, morons) who try and blame Dave Roberts for resting players. I have no control over a moron’s brain (maybe they don’t either). Gabe Kapler will be the NL Manager of the year… and rightfully so, but Dave Roberts should be #2 in the voting.
We also know that the Dodgers will play the Cardinals in the Wild Card Game where the loser of just one game, goes home. The Dodgers and their fans may not like that, but those are the rules we play under. They just need to make sure they win. If Scherzer happens to stumble, you will likely see Urias, Buehler, Jansen, Bickford, Vesia, Koufax, and Drysdale. In an “all-or-nothing” game, everybody has to be at the ready.
Clayton Kershaw will not be pitching and Max Muncy will not be playing on Wednesday. Clayton will likely not pitch during the playoffs and Muncy will miss some significant time. Who will take Muncy’s place? Two players: Albert Pujols and Matt Beaty – it’s a simple L-R platoon. It would be silly to weaken CF by moving Bellinger to 1B, in my opinion. Belli has not played 1B much this year, so there is a “rust” factor. The Dodgers ended the season by going 9-1 in the last 10 games. Unfortunately, they had to be perfect!
Anything can happen in a Wild Card Game. The leash is short and the hook has to be quick. There is no tomorrow. Max Muncy is a big loss, but it is what it is and players need to step up. Even with Muncy and Kershaw out, the Dodgers have no shortage of candidates to step up and be the “next man up!” It appeared that Max’s elbow was hyperextended when the runner ran into him. It could be a sprain or worse!
St. Louis will also have everyone at the ready. 40-year-old right-hander Adam Wainright will start the game. He pitched 206 innings with a 1.057 WHIP and 3.05 ERA. He had a 17-7 record and should not be underestimated. Jack Flaherty, Alex Reyes, Jon Lester, Kwang Hyun Kim, Bob Gibson, and others will be at the ready if Wainright faulters. The Dodgers had a 3.01 team ERA while the Cardinals had a 3.98 team ERA. That’s almost a run higher. The Dodgers also scored 124 more runs than the Cards. So there is nearly a two-run differential between the two teams. That means nothing. This is just one game for the chance to advance. Anything can happen.
The Cardinals have three players player with an OPS over .800… (Arenado, O’Neill, Goldschmidt)… none over .900. The Dodgers have two players with an OPS over .900 (T-Turner and Seager), and five more with an OPS over .800 ( Muncy, Pollock, Smith, Betts, and J-Turner). The only problem is that Muncy will not play.
On paper, the Dodgers will beat the Cardinals like Rented Mules. The problem is that the game is not played on paper. It will be played in Dodger Stadium, where Wainright is 1-3 with a 4.30 ERA. On the other hand, Max Scherzer is 7-3 with a 2.63 ERA there. Add it all up and the Dodgers will win handily. Except, that it does not work that way. We have to play the game and in one game, you just throw out everything and it is a street fight!
Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Tyler O’Neill are dangerous hitters. Nolan has been exactly what I thought he would be away from Coors. He has the power (31 HR), but his .255 BA and .312 OB% are not superstar status. Compare that to Justin Turner who hit .278 with a .361 OB%. Nolan may, however, be the best defensive 3B in baseball.
Will Smith is among the best catchers in baseball, but Yadier Molina could be the best for one game. You have to watch Yadi! Speaking of catchers, Yasmani Grandal was injured much of the year and had 279 AB’s during which he walked 87 times and struck out 82 times. He has 23 HR and 62 RBI and … get this, he hit .240 with a .420 OB%! WOW, but I digress! I am happy with Will Smith.
We can hash and re-hash and cuss and dis-cuss all of this, but it all boils down to “Boy, I sure hope the Dodgers win on Wednesday!”
For one day. Can we hit a curveball?
I’m guessing that they have a pitching machine spitting out 12-6 curveballs all week in BP.
I disagree Taylor is the new everyday CF and Bellinger at 1B. Belly can play 1B in his sleep and they are going to have to hope he finds it in the playoffs. Beaty’s job is LH pinch hitter off the bench.
Betts RF R
Seager SS L
T. Turner 2B R
J. Turner 3B R
Pollock LF R
Smith C R
Bellinger 1B L
Taylor CF R
I came up the with same lineup. I would also consider Belli in CF and Beaty at 1B to get another lefty bat in the lineup against Waino. Maybe put Beaty in the 6th spot and shift Smith and Belli down a spot.
Of course Max Muncy gets injured right before the playoffs. This is the 2021 Dodger’s season where everyone gets injured. The bright side is that we scored 10 runs yesterday regardless. If the Dodgers wanted to play against Waino’s splits, they’ll have Lux in CF and Belli at 1B.
Scherzer vs Wainwright is going to be a great matchup. Either pitcher is capable of taking over a ballgame. I like our chances at home with our lineup in beast mode right now.
I’ve looked around for more info on Muncy’s injury and can’t find a definitive update. It seems they expect him out for the Wild Card game as well as the Division Series right now. Let’s hope for a miracle that Lux stays hot and Belli and CT3 get going and start looking like their normal selves. The Cardinal vs the Dodgers is a classic matchup in this wild card game and the Red Sox vs the Yankees is even more monumental. This is going to be fun.
Without looking too far ahead, a Giants vs Dodgers post-season series is a special treat. I’m going to savor it, clear my schedule and hopefully enjoy it thoroughly. I wish they would fix the Division Series by moving it to a best of 7 format. It looks like the pitching is going to favor the good guys. We’ll be sending out 3 Cy Young hopefuls in the first 3 games of the Giants series with Urias, Bueller, Scherzer all lined up with Scherzer getting a couple of home games with the Wild Card and game 3 of the DS.
The Dodgers did an admirable job fighting until the end of the season winning 7 straight on the way to a record 106 wins for a Wild Card team. A congratulations is in order for a team that didn’t show any quit. Thank you Dodgers for a wonderful, entertaining season full of overcoming adversity. Let’s hope it last longer than 1 more game.
I’ll say it again. Some fans are nervous about facing Wainwright and the Cardinals in a one game winner take all scenario. But, I would much rather be a Dodgers’ fan than having to face Scherzer and the Dodgers in their own yard as a Cards fan.
It should be a rough couple of days on this site with two off days before this epic matchup between two classic teams with two classic pitchers. If you feel like Chicken little, now’s the time to read a short novel to keep your mind off the doom and gloom. I’d like to recommend Catcher in the Rye for you to keep your mind off your negative thoughts. It mind even be cathartic for you to see things from a different perspective.
Go Blue!
How about the autobiography Catcher in the Ryu?
The Catcher of the Ryu.
That’s part 2; the synopsis of Catcher in the Ryu: follow the story of a young somewhat rotund Korean boy as he pursues his dream of becoming Korea’s Johnny Bench.
106 wins and it comes down to a one game play in . Makes the regular season kind of overrated .
Lets hope Max has his A game going or it could be winter soon. Cards have nothing to lose . Dangerous team with an true ace on the hill.The loss of Muncy hurts and comes at the most inopportune time. But as was said this is the way the Dodgers season has been going from the start. Tons of injuries and players having subpar seasons. To still win 106 games in a tough division shows what talent the Dodgers have.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!
Wainwright knows how to pitch to that lineup. We won’t all of sudden learn how to hit curve balls. I doubt we score a lot of runs. I doubt they do either. Our defense needs to be flawless. And what are the odds of that?
Plate discipline. We have a reputation for it but we’ve seen many drift out of the strike zone. Who’s behind the plate? How many strike 3’s will be called on balls out of the strike zone? From what I’ve seen all year I say the over/under on that probability is 5. Be prepared for it. Protect the edges. It’s better to pop out than be called out. A pop fly can find grass. Strike 3 called finds nothing.
The Dodgers will be favored because the Dodgers are always favored. That’s a good lineup. 6 right handed hitters? Not very Dodger-like.
Scherzer has looked fatigued. The last 2 games he’s been clobbered to the tune of a .992 OPS. His ERA jumped from 2.08 to 2.46. With 30 starts that kind of movement is hard to do.
Any predictions?
only prediction I have is that I’ll be freaking out from now until (God willing) we have a 4 run lead in the 4th on Wednesday
For me it is a 50-50 game. Two veteran aces, two excellent lineups and both teams with momentum due to an excellent run over the last 3 weeks. It is a toss up.
It is like penalty shoot out in soccer after two good teams . The team with more luck will win.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.
And the doom and gloom begins…
No toss-up here. You have a team with one good streak and a 40 year old on the bump who would be the number 4 starter on our staff against a team that won 106 games in an injury marred season with a possible Cy Young winner on the mound at home in the the largest, loudest baseball stadium on earth.
Sorry guys, but the Dodgers are going to embarrass the Cardinals in a do or die game with a battle tested team full of guys that have long post-season resumes with two of the hottest hitters on the planet in TT and Seags. Betts will be the next Dodger to go into beast mode now and Pollock, JT and Smith will round out the stacked lineup.
The only worry I have is Doc making out the lineup card with Pujols in there against his old team. Get him a pinch hitting appearance with less than two outs and a runner on and maybe keep him in the game afterwards.
I liked CT3’s ABs yesterday and would reward him with the starting spot in CF. Belli goes to 1B hoping for some magic.
Betts RF
T Turner 2B
Seager SS
J Turner 3B
AJ Pollock LF
Will Smith C
Belli 1B
CT3 CF
Here’s why I DO NOT move Bellinger for the Wild Cardinals Game:
1. He is arguably the best CF’er in baseball (defensively).
2. He may be able to play 1B in his sleep, but Belli has only played 4 games there this year, and reps are paramount. He has 2 errors in those 4 games.
3. Chris Taylor, while a decent CF’er is not great.
4. Wainright is a RHP and Matt Beaty is a LHB… a HOT LHB!
5. Matt Beaty was 3-3 yesterday. He is hitting .500 in his last 7 games/.353 in his last 15 and .371 in his last 30 games.
6. Chris Taylor is a RHH who is hitting worse than Bellinger. .154 in his last 7 games/.167 in his last 15 games/.129 in hs last 30 games. Bellinger is better than that.
7. You need as many LHH as possible against Waino.
If Bellinger goes to 1B, you weaken the defense. If Taylor plays, you weaken the offense.
Lineup:
1. Betts RF
2. Seager SS
3. T-Turner 2B
4. Bellinger CF (to keep L-R balance)
5. Pollock LF
6. Beaty 1B
7. J-Turner 3B
8. Smith C
Yeah, there’s no chance we put the worst hitter in all of 2020 batting 4 in a must win game.
He’s the 8 hitter, at best. His .150 average doesn’t balance anything. I wish to God it was the old Bellinger, who deserved to bat 4. But it’s not. We have no clue what he is now (although .150 over the course of a year says something). Granted for a must win game where runs may be a premium, we need his gold glove in CF. So bat him 8. And if he catches up to one, GREAT! But go play good D and help keep runs off the board.
Justin Turner or Will Smith, 2 proven October guys, should and will bat behind Trae.
Bellinger is the equivalent of a Cesar Geronimo type player at the moment in CF. An all field- no hit player that serves the purpose of providing gold glove caliber defense with an occasional knock when he bats. When you consider all the other pop in the lineup, that’s not a bad option at all.
I was happy to see what Beatty did on the last game of the regular season. Well, sans that play at 3b that most decent 3b dudes make. He is my wife’s favorite player & was happy to see her get rewarded for sticking with me this year while I watched all 162. Pretty sure, I will not ever do that again, though I did see all the games last year in the shortened season.
Nice job Matt!
1st game for Lux in RF & it showed a bit. Still holding up w/ what I have said about the balls hit over the head going to be what will be hard to learn this late in the season. Pretty much everything in front of him, he has been golden with. Balls he needs to track over his head, have been an adventure & quite predicatable.
cheers
pb+
I missed one and a half games this year. Both for weddings. My wife is a saint. That’s why I cut her a break during the offseason by not watching the other sports with consistency.
Same here. Helps that we ski all winter so Sunday football is mostly a no go for me. Cannot say that I miss it either. Being outside skiing is WAAAY better than watching ANYTHING …. except baseball. 🙂
cheers
pb+
Mark, I didn’t realize that Beaty has been hitting so well. I was leaning toward Taylor in CF and Bellinger to 1B. But, with those stats Beaty should be at 1B at least for the WC game. I don’t agree with your lineup and having Bellinger in the 4 slot in trying to go R-L-R etc. At this point of the season Turner and Pollock have proven to be OK against RH pitching. I would have Bellinger at 8 and pushing everyone else up a spot. Who would you rather have an extra AB, Bellinger or Pollock/Turner? If Wainwright is still pitching in the sixth or seventh inning with the R-L-R etc positioning then it didn’t make any difference. Then, again, it’s all a crap shoot. Like you always say it’s player execution. So no matter what strategy is used it boils down to execution.
Carry on.
Yeah, Cody maybe can play 1B in his sleep. Here he is sleep throwing to 3rd base…
https://youtu.be/hGfQJxh4PtM
What ru smoking or maybe drinking? There is no chance in h*ll Bellinger is batting 4 th and Justin hitting 7 th…what a stupid lineup that would be!!! And yes our resting of our key players did cost us 1 st place….Roberts waited too long to go with our best. The results prove that so u need to quit denying the facts!!
I won’t call you stupid… you just have bad luck when it comes to thinking.
Maybe you can get that fixed sometime.
Good morning. Losing Muncy is a blow and who ever takes his place is going to have to step up. Not only for the wild card, but if they win that, the division series. A couple of things about the game. It will be broadcast on TBS. Start time is 5:10 Pacific time. Which means, they are going to have to deal with the creeping shadows on the field and the right fielder, if it is a bright day, is going to be dealing with the glare. Scherzer is 2-0 against St. Louis this season. He has allowed 1 unearned run in 14 innings. He goes 7 with no runs given up and I like the Dodgers chances. But, he is going to have to be vintage Scherzer because the Cardinals have some pop in that lineup. Every one talks about O’Neill, but Tucker Carlson has been one of their hotter hitters lately. Do not go to sleep on these guys. And they have decent speed on the bases. Pitchers are going to have to watch the runners. Poll on MLBTR has the Giants winning the World Series so far. But I do not think polls are always accurate. Not going to predict a lineup. Another thing, Scherzer will be on 6 days rest.
Partly cloudy forecast for Wed. Hopefully more cloudy than not, though a “white sky” might not be so bueno either.
cheers
pb+
Dylan Carlson. 😉 But Tucker is a pretty hot hitter as well.
OldBear48 –
If Tucker Carlson was one the Card’s hottest hitters, then I think we should make sure that Rachel Maddow is playing first base for the Dodgers on Wednesday.
This could ultimately end up being one of the most frustrating Los Angeles Dodgers seasons ever, but we will see. The worst one, in my opinion, was 1962, when we had what I think was our greatest team ever, but we lost Sandy Koufax for the last two months with a circulation problem in his finger, and when he came back late in September, he was not the same. We would have won the division easily. We lost our last three games at home to St. Louis, not scoring runs, for some reason, and we ended up tied with the Giants. Then we rallied to win game two of the playoffs, then had a 4-2 lead going into the ninth in game three,and lost that, and the Giants won the pennant.
There have been other very disappointing seasons; I think of 1973, when we blew something like a ten game lead to the Reds.. Before that, 1971, when we were eight games behind the GIants, somehow swept two series with them, cut it to one game with 23 to play, and then never gained that extra game. 1980, when we won three must win games against the Astros, then needed one more, and pitched Dave Goltz instead of Fernando, and lost badly. Was it 1985 when we led the Cardinals 2-0 in the playoffs, and lost the last three? 1991, when we had a very good team, but the Braves were one game better, and there was no Wild Card then, so no postseason for us.
Injuries are part of the game, they say, but we have had virtually every key player on our team injured this year, and often out for a month or two. And of course Bauer, who was not injured, but hasn’t pitched for three months. And now in the last game, we lose Muncy. We have won 106 games, despite the injuries and suspension, and we end up as a wild card team, because the Giants have their greatest season ever. They’ve won three titles in the last twenty years, and we have the one last year. If they win this one, it will be even more upsetting.
We certainly could beat the Cardinals in one game, but only if Scherzer regains his form. After that, playoff series where we are the road team, and where our starting staff is going to really be stretched. Can we score enough runs, playing Bellinger, who is hitting .160? Yes, we scored a lot of runs yesterday, but playoffs are far different, facing everybody’s best pitchers and complete bullpen. I don’t think that we are likely to get through this, but we are still the favorites to win the pennant, although now up to 2-1, from the 1.5-1 last week. Giants are second at around 2.2-1. The Giants have done it all year, know they can win, find ways to win, and have home field. We have the best starting three pitchers, but only one starter after that, who did not do well in the playoffs last year. We have a lineup which I think is going to have trouble scoring runs against the other team’s best pitchers. But we are playing very well, so maybe we’ll somehow pull this off on class.
What it looks like, is the culmination of an ill-fated season for us, which we have had more of, than we have had glorious endings, in the last 30 years. If we lose the wild card game, we will become the stuff of baseball lore, 106 wins and no playoff wins. If the SF Giants win the championship, it will be four, which will probably take us another fifty years to catch them. A lot of missed opportunities for us in the recent years, and this of course feels like another one, but I know that we will play hard, and we have talent.
1985 they had increased the Championship Series to 7 games LA won game 1, 4-1 and game 2, 8-2. Series switched to St. Louis and Cards won the next three, 4-2, 12-2, and 3-2 on an Ozzie Smith walk off homer against Neidenfuer. Then in game 6 at Dodger Stadium, The Dodgers were up 4-1 in the 7th, but the Cardinals scored 3 runs to tie the game. Neidenfuer allowed a triple to Smith that tied it. He struck out Clark to end the inning. In the bottom of the 8th, Mike Marshall homered to right putting LA up 5-4. Then in the top of the 9th, Neidenfuer struck out Cedeno, but McGee singled and stole second. They opted to walk Smith and got an infield out from Tommy Herr. That brought up Clark with first base open. Rather than walk Clark and face Van Slyke, who was hitting under .200 for the series, Lasorda opted to have Neidenfuer pitch to Clark because he had struck him out in his previous at bat. Clark hit Neidenfuer’s first pitch into the LF pavilion for the 7-5 lead. The Dodgers went down meekly in the 9th.
What I consider disappointing or frustrating is to not make the playoffs. I know that when you reach the playoffs, anything can happen… including losing. I think the best way to characterize this season is to say this:
In 2021, the LA Dodgers, defending World Series Champs, won more games than any other previous World Series winner in the year following the World Series, and despite a spate of injuries and a suspension that cost the Dodgers Three Former Cy Young Winners and the loss hundreds of man games, the Dodger tied the franchise record for the most wins ever (2019) and made it to the playoffs for the 9th year in a row.
or as The Athletic put it:
The Dodgers matched the best record in franchise history, won more games than any reigning World Series champion ever, reeled off one of the best stretches to finish a season and amassed a roster filled with more talent than just about any team in baseball.
Add in setting the record for most wins for a Wild Card team.
Kershaw’s out indefinitely William, seems like a good time for you to return to your “Blow it up” philosophy!
Think about what we could get on the market for: Urias, Buehler, Smith, Turner, Turner, Betts, Pollock, Treinen, and Gonsolin!
Smith and Buehler given their position and contract statuses are probably two of the most valuable MLBers out there.
This outdoes the usual perception of the tactic of “straw man argument.” You make up a “philosophy” which I nave never had or espoused, and then try to embellish it.
My bad!
I thought it was you who wanted to rebuild when Kershaw went down.
My sarcasm was mis-targeted and I apologize.
I think the key to the game will be who has the better offensive game between Betts and Edman. Those 2 are the table setters and both can steal a base.
With baseball anything can happen.
IMO these 2 teams are among the top 3 teams in the NL. It’s too bad one of them is going to be ousted after only 1 game.
One last thing, I am not putting Lux in the outfield in a game that starts at that time of day. They need their most experienced and best fielders on the field for this one, so yeah, here is my lineup….I will let DR decide where they hit, C Barnes, reason is simple, Scherzer has a better ERA with him behind the plate and Smith does not handle the off speed stuff. 1B, Tio Albert, Much better defensively than Beatty, also hits RH off speed pitchers well. Not so much the hard stuff. 2B Turner, SS Seager, 3B, Turner. LF Pollock, why change? The guy is a hitter and decent on defense. CF Bellinger, you need the defense against these guys. RF Betts. Bench, Smith, Lux, Beaty and a call up, most likely McKinstry. All hands on deck in the pen. Score early and let Mad Max do the rest. One other thing for you Cody detractors. Jackie Bradley Jr. had a worse season than Bellinger. .163 Avg. 6 HR’s, 29 RBI’s in 387 at bats. Cody .165 Avg. 10 HR’s 39 RBI’s in 315 at bats. Shows what I know, I thought Bradley would be a good pickup for any team. I was very encouraged when Cody got a hit going to left field yesterday.
Shenanigans!
Albert Pujols against RH Pitchers (Offspeed BA 222 SLG 556) (Breaking BA 114 SLG 182)
Matt Beaty against RH Pitchers (Offspeed BA 283 SLG 314) (Breaking BA 245 SLG 469)
Offspeed includes Split, Change, Fork, Screw
Breaking includes Slider, Curve, Knuckle
Waino throws his curve more than any other pitch at 34%. Next the throws the sinker at 28%. Beaty’s best pitch to hit is from sinkers, batting 321 and slugging 536, then curveballs batting 267 and slugging 400. It’s like he’s made to hit off Wainwright.
Agree with you BP. Beaty should be in. Plus, he’s hot right now (at the plate, not looks-wise, although I”m not judging either way)
Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I like Beaty at 1B. He and Albert should be in a straight platoon until Muncy comes back. Same with Belli and CT3 in CF.
Let’s not overcomplicate things like OldBear did here. Barnes at C in such a critical game against a right handed pitcher is not a recipe for success. Scherzer has thrown to many catchers throughout his career, it’s overthinking to replace Smith with Barnes just because of two bad games, one at Coors where Scherzer never pitches well. In his latest game, Scherzer had no control / command. That had zero to do with who was behind the dish.
First to address your statement earlier about Bellinger being the worst hitter in all 2020, that would not only be wrong, but way off base. The worst hitter who played a lot on the 2020 team average wise? Joc Pederson, who came in with a .190 BA, Second worst? Max Muncy who hit .192. Bellinger hit .239. 40 points better than both of them. He also was second only to Seager in RBI’s during the post season run. Now, Bellinger is not even the worst hitter in the majors this season, his .165 avg is better than Bradley Jr’s .163. And he has been showing some improvement in his swing and selection of the pitches he chases. He had a base hit to left yesterday, very encouraging. And if you are wondering about Bradley Jr’s stats, they came in almost 80 at bats more than Cody. Is he the old Cody yet? No, but he is the best defensive center fielder on the team, he has been hitting better over the last month than Taylor. Do I hit him fourth? Nope. But I have him down in the 7 hole if Barnes starts, and 8 if it is Smith.
Never have played Shenanigans, but I will take your word for it. I still play Albert. Better defense for sure, and maybe he psych’s Waino out!
Go ahead and play Albert and Barnes. But, if you lose, you’re fired!
BTW – All fielding metrics for 1B this year say Barnes is better than Albert. I know it’s tempting to just throw stuff out there based on your own opinion, but it’s better to check the stats to make sure your opinion is valid. You’re 0-2 on defense and hitting. But, your historical articles are awesome!
Your first error. Barnes does not play first. Beaty has played 21 games at first and has no errors. Albert has played 56 for the Dodgers and has one. Beaty is a .373 hitter in 8 playoff at bats with no ribbies and zero extra base hits. Pujols is a .323 hitter in post season play with 38 extra base hits. 19 of them homers. I take the Hall of Famer over the bench guy and since I do not get paid, I cannot get fired.
Sorry meant Beaty. It was a typo, obviously. But, you knew I wasn’t talking about Barners, so thank you for pointing out the obvious. You are also very good at correcting typos.
Sorry OldBear, but recency means something. In the postseason in the last DECADE, Albert is 2-12 with a homer and a single. In case you haven’t noticed, he hasn’t played like a HOF’er since he was with the Cardinals.
I don’t care. Beaty is a good sub and not much else. I like the experience Albert brings, but who plays is out of my hands. Just because you disagree does not make you right. If I am wrong, great. I care less as long as at the end of the game they have at least one more run than the Cardinals. I am pretty sure DR knows his players and what they are capable of a lot better than we do. We all do nothing but guess and assume on here. No one else’s opinion is more right or wrong than the next guy.
I agree Bear. No one’s opinion is more valid than another’s. I am just presenting facts to back my position.
You say that Beaty is a sub and not much else, but Albert is also in that same boat. You have two subs to choose from. One hits well against lefties and the other against righties. ’nuff said.
Some people guess and assume, others look up stats and present a rational argument. Sometimes the stats can be in conflict with one another. This is where conversations start.
Stats are nothing more than a starting point. And I get it. I know what the stats say. I also know stats measure nothing when it comes to the players desire and will to perform. Beaty will probably be the guy. That is the managers decision. And he might just come up with the game of his life. That would be great. But I think Albert, no matter how old he is is one of those guys who rises to the occasion as he has many times this season. And a couple of times against a RH pitcher.
OB48, that reads like the lineup that lost to Wainright a few weeks ago. I’m not playing Albert with Barnes ,Bellinger and the pitcher in the lineup. Barnes ERA is better because of a Coors field game primarily. Scherzer had one bad start besides the Coors game. Throwing fastballs in the middle of the plate and missing with your changeup has zero to do with Smith. Smith is clutch.
Not so much against off speed pitchers like Waino. Beaty will probably get the nod over Pujols, which is fine, but Bellinger is going to be in CF, bank on it if he is not at first. Guys seem to forget that Barnes caught all four of the Dodger wins in the world series, and he got the hit that knocked Snell out of the game. I have more faith in Austin that most.
Although in the final part of the season they improved in that I was very concerned about the pitchers’ problems with retaining runners at first base, we constantly saw how a BB or a single easily became a double and a game with few runs scored. That could be the key to losing this, they have some very fast players, but as I said, it seems that in recent times the pitchers have improved in that aspect because I no longer have so many robberies of bases, the teams knew there was a deficiency and they were all running on the bases and as I said for a while towards that it disappeared, even the Padres they managed to control it, I remember that they beat us some games and they could no longer do it in the last series.
They have been absolutely terrible at holding runners. But when the catchers actually get a chance, they have been a little better the last couple of weeks at throwing them out. Barnes had a strike em out throw em out DP on Saturday. Smith threw out two in one game not long ago. But the pitchers, especially Jansen, need to do a better job.
I keep reading Beaty is hot. He’s hit .353 in 19 plate appearances in the last month. Corey Seager is hot. He’s hitting .380 in his last 104 plate appearances. I realize with Muncy out we will need Beaty but no way do I expect him to continue hitting .350 for his next 19 at bats.
We have once again been weakened by more injuries. Kershaw’s out and Muncy is out. Taylor’s bat all but disappeared over a month ago, Bellinger’s a year ago. Betts is hitting .163 over his last 56 PA’s. And yet we are favored to win the Championship. How can that be? The money refuses to pick anybody else, that’s why. Even with all that has happened to this team, the Dodgers are still picked to win it. How lucky are we to have this team to root for?
I agree they have been fun to root for no matter the outcome. The best team does not always win. No armchair GM or manager is going to change the outcome. I would love to be at Dodger Stadium watching the workouts the next couple of days. Who will get the callup? They are playing with a 4 man bench and 14 pitchers right now. Possibilities for who gets the call are McKinstry, Neuse, Raley, Reks or McKinney. I doubt it is a pitcher. None of the other guys down at AAA are on the roster. I doubt we know until they know the full extent of Muncy’s injury, which will probably be sometime tomorrow. And undoubtedly, the Dodgers will be close mouthed about it.
I know it’s very tempting to play Albert against the Cardinals for sentimental reasons. But, we need to win one single ballgame against the Cardinals on Wednesday. The facts are Beaty hits righties better than lefties and Albert hits lefties better than righties. Beaty is 6 – 17 .352 with 2 homers in Sept and Albert is 6-17 with 2 homers in Sept.
As far as defense goes. I think they’re about the same and the stats bear favor towards Beaty. Pujols will catch everything hit right at him, but he’s stiff and doesn’t have much range or mobility around the bag. Beaty might mess one up, but better range and mobility helps his cause.
It’s best to platoon them.
Up to Dave and out of our purview.
Thanks Captain, for a minute there I actually thought I was making out the lineup.
Don’t call me Captain, I was an enlisted man and worked for a living. If you were making out the lineup I would pencil in the L.
And you would be wrong.
Thank you for serving. With all due respect. Seriously.
Maybe, but if I am, I will admit it.
Mets dump Rojas as manager. His option was declined. Tingler will be gone in SD also.
Any odds on % Raider fans vs % Chargers fans tonight at Sofi Stadium??
I’ll guess 65-35% Raiders
B&P says he likes to present facts to back his position. He also wrote in a response to Bear…”it’s overthinking to replace Smith with Barnes just because of two bad games, one at Coors where Scherzer never pitches well. In his latest game, Scherzer had no control / command. That had zero to do with who was behind the dish.” What facts? That is sheer opinion/supposition/conjecture. There is not a single fact that says that Scherzer would not have pitched better with Barnes behind the dish in the two games he mentions. Of course there is no fact that says he would have. It is only a guess.
But if you are looking for facts with Scherzer on the mound:
Barnes – 33.2 IP, 1.34 ERA, 5 doubles, 1 HR, 45K/4 BB, .160/.194/.227/.420
Smith – 34.2 IP, 2.60 ERA, 5 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 44K/4 BB, .215/.243/.356/.598
Considering his two catchers in Washington, Yan Gomes and Alex Avila, the best that Max has pitched all year has been with Barnes behind the dish.
On September 6, Max faced St. Louis and pitched 8 innings allowing 6 hits, 1 unearned run, with 13 K and no BB. Barnes was his catcher that game. He followed that up with perhaps his best pitched game as a Dodger going 8.0 IP against the Padres allowing 1 hit and registering 9 Ks. Smith caught that game. Of course the Pads had given up at that point.
Offensively, since the beginning of September:
Smith – .217/.322/.406/.728
Barnes – .219/.242/.344/.586
Last 15 games:
Smith – .125/.179/.208/.387
Barnes – .200/.238/.250/.488
Neither one is lighting it up offensively. I also have zero issues with saying that Smith presents a much higher ceiling offensively.
Against Wainright, Smith is 0-3, while Barnes is 1-2.
Barnes is considered a better framer, while Smith has a better CS%.
Now if all goes to plan, Scherzer will go 7 or 8, and KJ will be asked to close. There really is stark differences here.
Barnes – 23 IP, 0.00 ERA, 28K/6 BB. 080/.148/.093/.241
Smith – 54.1 IP, 2.15 ERA, 58K/30 BB, .186/.318/.298/.616
One other consideration. This is a must win game. In the 2020 WS, all four wins were with Austin Barnes as the catcher. Fortunately there was a DH. There is no such consideration for this year’s winner take all Wild Card game.
If you think Smith should be the catcher, that is an opinion. If you think Barnes should be the catcher, that is also an opinion, but one that the facts seem to support more if you believe that the primary role of the catcher is to receive the pitcher. I will not judge Doc or the front office whoever they choose to be the catcher. As a fan, I am comfortable with either catcher in a must win game. But as for my opinion, in a must win game, I would want Barnes behind the dish.
Come on, Jeff. Stop making sense. You’re going to make 59inarow’s (aka Bulldogs and Penguins) head explode.
Maybe it has , it’s not like him not to get the last word LOL
You know me too well. I had to take my daughter to learn to drive, then Jeff put me to work to call him on his bullcrap and fake stats. You know I won’t let misinformation stand without a fight.
Come on Rudy, I put up arguments. My head doesn’t explode. I’ll leave that to you and Badger.
Wow, I am coming out of retirement to rec this comment. Brilliantly put, Jeff.
I’d also like to apologize to Mark & Bear for my rudeness on previous occasions. We’re all Dodger fans and blue blood is thicker than water.
About 50 hours to go. Anyone who says they’re not nervous is lying.
Great post Jeff.
Obviously Smith has had the better offensive year, but he’s been in a slump for a couple of weeks. Defensively, does it really matter for 1 game? I’ll paraphrase Eric here …. “No, it doesn’t”. That said, if Scherzer wants Barnes Scherzer gets Barnes. Smith can come off the bench late for a clutch hit.
Yes but YOUR opinions must be backed up with stats. LOL If memory serves right, Barnes sparked a game winning rally a few games ago. Go Jeff. Go Barney .GO Dodgers.
Here Jeff, a lesson to be learned about catcher’s ERA…
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/6/19/919142/please-everyone-stop-using
You can read the whole article, but I’ll save you by just giving you the tag line…
Don’t use Catcher’s ERA. It’s useless. We know this from studies in the past, not just from anecdotal comparisons.
When I asked to use stats to back up your argument, I didn’t think to be so specific to tell you that you had to use valid stats. You need to recheck Barnes’ catchers ERA. I
The facts are, Barnes has caught 5 games in which Scherzer gave up 6 runs whereas Smith has caught 6 games in which Scherzer gave up 10 runs. Smith caught 2 zeros and Barnes caught 3 zeros. The Dodgers won each and every game that Scherzer started.
On the offensive side of the ball Smith has 4 runs and 7 RBI whereas Barnes has 4 runs and 5 RBI.
In the last 15 days, both hitters are struggling and as a catcher here’s the stats…
Barnes 154/154/154/308
Smith 125/184//188/372
That’s not very relevant, so let’s just look at the year against righties since Wainwright is one…
Barnes 216/309/336/645
Smith 270//383/529/912
You make a point about pitch framing, but it only account for about a 2-3 runs over the course of a year. So, I’m not going to make any decisions that have an impact of about 1/50th of a run per game. Both are very good defensive catchers and the stats bear that out with little recognizable differences.
All things are pretty equal except offensive stats vs a right handed pitcher. And it’s not very close at all.
In the World Series last year, Barnes did catch all four wins, that’s true. But, Will Smith played in each of those games. The thing that Barnes didn’t do was catch in a winner take all, or elimination game. Will Smith caught three of those in the LCS. He also caught 2 of the 3 SD sweep and was the DH in the other game.
As far as the no control game, there is no stat to back up the notion and not stat to disprove it either. But, that article will explain the uselessness in using catcher’s ERA for decision making.
I’m hate to be Captain Obvious here Jeff, but the thing you fail to consider in your argument is that the only time Barnes caught in the post season last year is when Smith was the DH. There’s no DH on Wednesday.
No, contrary to your holier than thou attitude, I did consider the fact that the WS had the DH and that Wednesday does not. I just prefer Barnes as the catcher with Scherzer in a must win game that pitching is more likely to decide. And really Smith isn’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball with his offense. That is my opinion. You and others can disagree. That does not make me wrong or you right.
I have no dog in this fight. You called out Bear as overthinking when he said he thought that Barnes might be a better choice for Scherzer because of his numbers. You proceeded to discount his point and then went on to say that you back up your opinions with facts. I just pointed out that you did not support your opinion with facts that Smith should start over Barnes. You then support the fact that you do not have to support an opinion with facts, based on an article from a blogger who calls himself a fan. Interesting, so I am supposed to take a blog writer who calls himself a fan as the final word. I think I will pass. Or is it just the stats that YOU believe in that should be considered. I guess we at LADT should just consider you as the final arbiter on the relevance of specific stats.
I have no issue with Will Smith as the primary catcher. He is a fine catcher and a better hitter than Austin. If it is decided that he should start Wednesday behind the dish, great. My problem has always been with those of you who seemingly have it out for Austin Barnes. You criticize his offense without giving him his just due for his ability to handle the pitcher. I have no idea who Max Scherzer prefers (and neither do you). But I do know that Clayton Kershaw prefers Barnes (he has said so), and Buehler has gone on record that it was Barnes who calmed him down and controlled the game after a bases loaded no outs jam in the 2nd inning of Game 6 of the 2020 NLCS. Maybe they like Barnes. Maybe KJ likes Barnes. He certainly pitches better with him. Although, CK has said that he likes Smith as a catcher as well.
Offensively you have shown that Smith has better numbers over the course of the year against RHP. Great. I doubt that anyone here believes that Barnes is more of an offensive threat than Smith. But maybe Doc (AF) thinks that since Barnes has a hit against Wainwright while Smith doesn’t, Austin should get the nod. Maybe Doc has a hunch. Managers play hunches.
My opinion is that Barnes should start at catcher. That does not make me right or wrong. You prefer Smith. Great. We have different opinions. With respect to Bear and his opinion that a HOF vet like Tio Albert should get the nod over Beaty at 1B is just that…his opinion. You and others think Beaty should start at 1B. I would prefer that Albert come off the bench in a critical situation, but again that is my opinion.
Maybe you should provide us with a primer on which stats we are allowed to use, and which stats are irrelevant.
Jeff, you spent a career in finance. I know you had to take statistics classes as I did. You should know from your background what stats are reliable and the ones that aren’t. I shouldn’t have to explain to you why stats like DRS and Catcher’s ERA aren’t reliable. BTW-I have given a primer on why a particular stat is unreliable.
The guy that wrote the article is a former major leaguer, not just some fan blogger.
Bear calls me out all the time, as does Badger, Mark and you. I’m not crying about it, I can stick up for myself. I find it funny that you feel you need to defend Bear, who does a great job all by himself.
We all made arguments about the starting lineup. Let’s see how it plays out now. IMHO there are two platoons until Muncy comes back and there’s a starting catcher and a backup catcher and Lux is off the bench.
In a game that could come down to a blown call by the plate umpire, the NL WC game gets Cowboy Joe West behind the plate. How lucky do you feel?
And there you have it. The worst ump in the league gets, to this point anyway, the single most important game of the year. Clearly MLB doesn’t grade these assignments on skill level.
Does he tend to favor pitchers or hitters?
Give pitchers a wide outside corner ?
Or does it seem to vary day by day?
His strike zone is like a bad case of diarrhea, some of it goes like it’s supposed to. But, a lot of it ends up on the seat, floor, shoes and clothing.
https://umpscorecards.com/
MLB screwing us for sure. Maybe they can assign Bauer to take that fatty out to dinner, drinks and a few strip clubs tomorrow night to butter the roll so to speak.
my notes on Joe West – Joe West – a lazy, inconsistent A-hole. He frequently looks inconvenienced when he has to lift his arm to call a strike. He seems to enjoy missing pitches, especially low fastballs, just to piss off the players and get into a confrontation. Super tight early and may loosen up late if pitcher is consistent. Hates rookies. Big chip on his shoulder. He’s what’s wrong with umpires.
From the Chicago Tribune – “West, who has umpired in a record 43 seasons since 1976 and in 51 ballparks, is renowned for having been in the middle of more controversies than any umpire in modern history. He also doubles as a country singer known as “Cowboy Joe” and once was a featured performer at Gilley’s in Houston, where his reviews were considerably better than the ones he has received from players, managers and fans at those 51 parks.”
Geez why do we get this guy?
Considering their respective personalities, I’m guessing Joe likes Waino better than Max.
Some think we lost the division on a bad check swing call.
I hope we don’t lose the WC on an ump’s call.
Hopefully we bring our bats tomorrow and the game isn’t close.
Sorry STB, but we have all of tomorrow and half of the next day to reflect on Joe West. The game is on Wednesday.
I was just hoping to fake out West and have him show up a day early.
It’s nice to know that at least someone reads my comments, even if they’re incorrect. 🙂
If Corey leaves, what would you be willing to give, in a trade, to Cleveland for the 3b José Ramírez ???
Assuming there is a DH, Line Up 2022:
SS T.T.
RF Betts
CF Bellinger (healthy)
3B Ramírez (switch hitters)
DH J. Turner
1B Muncy
C Smith (500AB/30HR)
LF Pollock
2B Lux (Next Chase Utley,
it’s a clone )
I like that thought DodgerHorse. José Ramirez is an absolute stud and he won’t come cheap. I don’t like to propose trades very much, but he would be a trade target to me for sure. I don’t know, one of Santana, Vargas or Santana and pick one pitcher from a group of Jackson, Beeter or Knack and a young prospect outside our top 30?
Santana, Vargas or Santana? Dennis Santana? No longer here. Carlos Santana? Barely a Top 50 Dodger prospect at this point, unless you were referring to the guitar player. A typo? Did you mean Pages?
Just returning the favor.
A trade for Ramirez would likely have to include Pages and Vargas. Ramirez will be 31 soon and I have to say “are you out of your rabbit-a$$ mind?”
No, I’m not crazy, Ramírez has just turned 29, he was born in 1992, he does not turn 30 until September 2022, Ramírez signed a contract of 5 yrs / $ 26M (17-21) & 22-23 team options and this season 2021 finished with 6.7 WAR.
To clarify your ignorance Ramírez (29) is only a year and a half older than Seager who will turn 28 in April 2022.
In addition Ramírez has played 3B, SS, 2B and LF in MLB, he is a versatile player as the Dodgers like them.
The team holds affordable options for two years.
OK, since many of you did not like my idea to bat Cody Bellinger #4, I thought I would let you stew on it and then give you my rationale.
How have pitchers been getting Cody out since his shoulder issues and surgery?
Answer: High Heat.
Waino doesn’t have high heat and Cody can track a curve. Since Muncy is out, I put him #4 to break up the RH batters. Cody has a great eye still and I think hitting him #4 would do two things:
1. Show him that they have confidence in him and hitting is at least 50% confidence; and
2. I think he would hit Wainright.
Spread the outs around. I considered Beaty at #4, but Belli has experience in that slot. At any rate, Belli has to say in CF and Beaty HAS to play 1B in the Wild Cardinals game.
If I were Doc, I would start at Catcher whoever Max wants!
Finally, I have read the case against CERA and find it rife with circular thinking.
I know he still got a great eye for the ladies. But what have you you got to prove he’s got a good eye at the plate recently.
Even Doc said if he wants to play a bigger role he’s got to quit chasing
Of course he needs to play,but hitting fourth I don’t know….
Yes you have lost your mind….there is no chance Belli is hitting 4th and Turner 7th. I can’t even justify a BA of 165 being in any postseason lineup. There are better options because we are deep and we need to go with our best to win this game. BTW if you can’t see the forest thru the trees….roberts decision to rest our key players until the final couple of weeks did cost us the division title!!
Well from your lips to God’s ears. I am glad you have such an intelligent retort.
You are a silly little man!
Well, an argument could be made we are all silly little men. There’s history to prove it.
#4 is just a number. I think I might put our three best hitters at 1-4. Justin has been improving. OPSn over 1.200 for a week. It might sound risky, as in him not getting an at bat in the first inning, but I would consider Betts Turner, Seager, Turner or even flipping Justin and Corey. With Muncy out obviously there will be changes made. Bellinger? I hit him Smith and Barnes 8th.
If the umpire had correctly marked that swing of Ruf the Dodgers are division champions and Kenley had finished with 39 SV in 43 SVO only 4 BS, the 39 SV would have allowed him to be the champion in saved games of the NL tied with Melancon, I would also have finished with: 4W-3L,39 SV and 1.82 ERA, which would have made him a stronger candidate for reliever of the year.
Yep.
If they insist on being stubborn about ABS, how about making strike 3 reviewable?
Karnak the magnificent says ALL QUESTIONS SHALL BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN ROOBERTS POSTS THE LINEUP. At least that is what he told me……