Six to Go

Posted By on September 28, 2021

With just six games to go, the Giants have won 102 games while the Dodgers are sitting on 100. Both teams are 7-3 in their last 10 games. Both teams have their next three games against division rivals at home. The Giants finish against the Padres at home while the Dodgers have a tougher foe in the Milwaukee Brewers at the Ravine. It seems unlikely that the Dodgers can catch the Giants in the final six games based upon the way both teams are playing, but you never know. Both teams have issues. Let’s look at the problems both teams face.

The Dodgers Problems

  • Cody Bellinger will likely come off the IL today, giving the Dodgers a full healthy roster. It remains to be seen if he can actually hit. If he could even come close to “league average” with the bat (and that about .240) he would be a huge asset due to his defense.
  • Chris Taylor who was one of the Dodgers top players all season is striking out at an alarming rate and is hitting .104 in September after hitting .228 in August.
  • Max Muncy, who still has a proclivity to get a big hit is hitting .200 in September after hitting .189 in August.
  • Striker Buehler has a 7.32 ERA in September and clearly is experiencing fatigue after three consecutive months of sub 2.00 ERA’s. It is my opinion he should not pitch the last six games… let alone today. He has thrown more innings this year than he ever has. If we expect him to deliver in the playoffs, he should rest.
  • Julio Urias has a 2.28 ERA in Sptember, but he clearly could benefit from some rest as he has also amased nearly half of his career innings in just this one year.
  • Just two games back off the IL, Clayton Kershaw looks impaired and does not exactly inspire confidence.

The Giants Problems

  • Brandon Belt will likely go on the IL with a broken thumb. That typically takes four weeks or more to recover, Belt has been a HUGE PART of the Giants success with a .975 OPS. Wilmer Flores or LaMonte Wade are his replacements. Belt has been on fire in August and September, OPS’ing over 1.100 for both months combined.
  • Darin Ruf, who is OPS’ing .899 is on the IL with an oblique strain.
  • Jake McGee, the Giants closer and Johnny Cueto are on the IL and the Giants starting pitchers are showing signs of wearing down.

Conclusion

Both teams are running on fumes, but the Dodgers veteran players who are much younger than the Giants older vets, should have the Edge… if not in the regular season, then in the playoffs. The Dodgers bullpen is full of live arms with low ERA’s:

  • Blake Treinen – 1.92
  • Phil Bickford – 2.63
  • Corey Knebel – 2.59
  • Alex Vesia – 2.35 (remember Dylan Floro?)
  • Joe Kelly – 2.81
  • Kenley Jansen – 2.30
  • Tony Gonsolin – 3.00 (he will be in the pen in the playoffs, unless Clayton can’t go)

The bullpen appears healthy and we have no clue what David Price is up to. Victor Gonzalez, Mitch White, and Brusdar Graterol are also in the mix. Of course, no other team has a Max Scherzer, which is a huge advantage for the Boys in Blue. The position players are healthy and it’s time to break out the Whipping Sticks on the Padres. Urias and Buehler need to rest and the bats need to speak up and carry this team to the playoffs… most likely the Wild Card…. but this is a crazy game – you NEVER know.

Albert, Max & Trea

I got my Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, and Albert Pujols Dodger Baseball Cards last week:

This article has 80 Comments

  1. I got a Pujols yesterday, but it is different from the one you have and my Scherzer is on the way. It looks like the 1953 card. Losing Belt is a blow. Their starters all running on fumes except Webb who seems to be getting his second wind. Bullpen for Gnats is way over worked. Just have to weave some Dodger playoff magic again.

  2. Carpenter’s curveball worries me. That and a 16 game win streak and a leaky Dodger defense could send a 104 win team home after one playoff game!

    1. I get what you’re saying Cassidy. Any wildcard single elimination game is worrying. The bright side is that we’ll be at home and Scherzer will be on the hill. Waino has had a great season this year, but he would be our No. 4. Do you think the Cardinals or their fans are worried?

  3. Isn’t that cool that Topps comes out with cards to reflect mid-season acquisitions? I’m glad you’re enjoying your cards Big Bear!

    I have some serious apprehension about Clayton Kershaw after his lengthy IL stint, lack of velocity and his most recent stinker. Together with his past postseason track record, I’m getting really nervous about him.

    Let’s hope that Bueller can get back on track tonight, like Urias did in his most recent start.

    The Dodgers face a difficult decision in regards to Lux, Belli and CT3. The rest of the lineup is set, basically leaving 3 players for one position. Do you go with experience down the stretch and try to get CT3 or Belli right over the next 6 games, or do you go with the hot hand in Lux?

    A lot has been said about the offense lately. I agree that as a whole, we are mired in a bit of a slump. With just 6 games remaining, do you give Mookie, JT and Muncy an extra day off or do you keep rolling out the best lineup to try to win these games?

    I agree with PhilJones that this is not the time to start talking offseason trades and free agents. Especially when it comes to Bauer and Seager/TT at shortstop. There’s plenty of time for that during a long offseason that might be even longer with the upcoming CBA negotiation.

    If you think DRS is a useful stat, I’ve got some beachfront property in Mojave I’d like to sell you on the cheap. Here’s a list of shortstops with a lower DRS value than Corey Seager…

    Fernando Tatis
    Didi Gregorious
    Gleyber Torres
    Javier Baez
    Dansby Swanson
    Xander Bogaerts
    Trea Turner

    Not only has the bullpen been great, but you can argue that we wouldn’t be in the position we are today without such a dominating performance from our relievers. They were viewed as the weak link early in the season. Now, they’re possibly the most reliable aspect of the team with starters faltering and the lineup under performing.

    I don’t feel sorry for the Giants losing Brandon Belt at all. Cody has a broken rib, Rios, May and Bauer are all lost for the season. It’s about time things started to even out.

    1. There are so many defensive stats you can use to prove any point you want.

      I use two metrics:

      1. The EYE test (Corey passes my eye test as a SS); and
      2. The SMELL test (Corey smells like a SS).

      Nuff said!

      1. I think those are both more accurate than DRS. If GM’s considered it reliable, all those guys wouldn’t be shortstops any longer.

    2. Topps contract with MLB is about to expire and they will no longer be making baseball cards after 2025. The new contract is with a company called Fanatics. I still do not think their cards will ever have the value the old Topps cards do.

  4. It’s never too early to think about next year. I guarantee AF is thinking 2022 to 2026… at a minimum.

    2026?:

    1. Lux CF
    2. Vargas 3B
    3. Yurchak 1B
    4. Pages LF
    5. Smith 2B
    6. Cartaya C
    7. Busch DH
    8. Betts RF
    9. Leonard SS

    1. No Seager, no Bellinger(so much for getting healthy and hitting again in 2022), no Turner(the young one) and Betts is batting 8th! That’s not a team winning a WS! Outside of Betts maybe 2-3 of those guys are there.

      1. Bellinger is a free agent in 2024 and this lineup reflects that. I think Smit will eventually move, but not sure he is the 2nd base type. One catcher I remember moved to second and will be in the Hall. Craig Biggio.

    2. Well, you were wrong about Smith once, might as well keep trying. 😉

      Where’s Luis Rodriguez and Jimmy “Fat Boy” Lewis?

      1. I was wrong because they traded Ruiz.

        If Cartaya is what he appears, then let him catch and let Smith play a less stressful position. He is not a big guy and he would benefit offensively from the move… he is also an average catcher – defensively.

        1. There’s that “big guy” bias again.
          How does Smith’s size make him less durable? Seems to me fitness is the most important factor. Clearly the size of Seager and Belli haven’t made them more durable in positions that are less physically demanding. Garvey was a short first baseman but the most durable Dodger in recent memory.
          That said, I’d be thrilled if Cartaya proves so good on offense and defense that Smith could be moved to enhance his longevity and ensure the best lineup.
          Overall, your projected lineup for 2026 looks plausible to me. I’m rooting for Lewis at 1B because he’d be the better story, overcoming his weight problem. Also rooting for Outman because I love his speed and his name–at least on defense. And rooting for Amaya because he’s an LA kid with a reputation as a grinder.
          What’s the rotation in 2026? May, Miller, Pepiot, White, Gonsolin, Jackson, Bruns, Huebeck…???
          Oh, how about No. 17 prospect Carlos Duran, just 20 years old now. He’s listed at 6-7 and 230 pounds. I share the big-guy bias when it comes to pitchers. Really wanted the Dodgers to get Randy Johnson when they had the chance.

    3. I hope all those minor leaguers can help this team continue to win 100, but, I doubt it. Other teams have outstanding talents in their systems as well. Many have deeper systems than ours.

      We keep most of of our “around 30” veterans, and add few free agents every year, payroll well over $200 million, we keep winning.

        1. I just read we rank 11th and 3 teams that rank higher are in our Division, including the giants. I know that those rankings are somewhat fluid but they are close. Organizations are catching up with us. The perfect example of that can be found looking at the NL West standings.

          1. Some have us as high as 8th… and that is pretty dang good when you have drafted at the bottom of the rounds for the past decade!

    4. Throw Soto in the outfield Nats aren’t going to pay him either with the money they have locked in on pitchers and their deferred salaries.

  5. I talked to an old baseball insider yesterday who has heard “chatter” that the Dodgers may feel that throwing may get into Gavin Lux’s head and his resurgence is a result of moving to the outfield.

    1. If all this is true, and Lux becomes the hitter most of us thought he could be, AND becomes a good outfielder, I will give you major props for calling it way back when!

        2. Ohtani has talked the last few days about not resigning with the Angels. He and Mike Trout have both expressed the desire to win. You could see a Trout trade on the horizon, and Ohtani as a free agent. On another front, Freddie Freeman said the other day that he wants to retire as a Brave.

          1. Ohtani isn’t a free agent for two years and Trout, already past his prime, is making $37 million for several more years. He’s Pujols II. Good luck moving him.

          3. Not implying that the Dodgers would pursue either. Just saying there seems to be a lack of harmony in Halo Land. Maddon was quoted as saying he is tired of the losing also. Bellinger and Ohtani are free agents at the same time.

      2. For every time Mark suggested Lux as a left fielder, I countered it with he should be a center fielder if moved to the outfield.

        1. I think he needed to learn LF first. Putting a guy in CF who has NEVER played OF is a big bite.

    2. I agree Mark. Lux seems unburdened by the pressures of playing the infield, second especially. No throwing concerns. He can just be an athlete, use his speed and gifts. I think that’s freed up his bat being more stress free. He looks like he’s enjoying playing the game again. I personally like him staying in the outfield. I also don’t see him as as swiss army type utility player down the road the caliber of Kike and CT3.

  6. Bowa was a better shortstop than Russell and the Dodgers did just fine with the defensively inferior shortstop.

    AROD was a better shortstop than Jeter and the Yankees did just fine with the defensively inferior shortstop, although Jeter excelled at playing smart and alert baseball.

    The Dodgers will not miss out on championships with either Seager or Trea Turner at shortstop. I could care less which one winds as the shortstop but I would prefer Turner at short and Seager at third for the next 5 years.

    I would hope Seager, Trea, and Mookie lead the Dodger offense for the next 5 years.

    Spare me the drama of Bauer being on the team and fretting over the next shoe to drop.

    1. I agree with that Bum. Have said as much.

      We are an offensive minded organization. We don’t teach defense the way we usta did decades ago. If we can win with a < defensive team, ok, let’s go do it. My baseball training includes valuing defense. It’s the way I was brought up. And the saber dudes still have algorithms for it so some value is given. When I went to the park, which I don’t anymore, I found nothing more exciting than a great defensive play made by a shortstop. That was my position most of my life. Home runs?

      Defensive Runs Saved is a thing worth valuing. My opinion.

      Seager, Trea and Mookie. Who plays shortstop.

      1. “Seager, Trea and Mookie. Who plays shortstop.”

        Easy answer, Badger. Mookie plays shortstop. That way Trea and Corey don’t have to fight over it. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. No way Seager and TT are both with this team in two years. If Andrew wanted to take a chance, he could re-sign Seager, let him play short and make Trea play second again next year, but if he did that Turner would have his locker cleared out within 2 minutes of the last pitch of the 2022 season.

        1. I think you’re right about Seager and Trea. They both want to play shortstop. If I had to pick now, I’d choose to keep Turner happy. I say that partly because I’ve felt for months Seager was heading East. I don’t know anything about either of these guys but I think Turner will play more games going forward and he’s clearly faster so as long as he is willing to work on his defense I think he will but up more dWAR at short than Corey will and WAR=wins.

  7. Jaime Jarrin has announced that 2022 will be his last season. It will be 64 years with the Dodgers. His son, Jorge, retired prior to this season. I am wondering if they will make Fernando the play by play man once Jarrin leaves.

  8. Wow Badger! Where do you come up with the Mike Trout and Albert Pujols comparison? Two totally different body types and two totally different athletes! Trout was having a pretty good 30 season before he got hurt. I’ll take the over on your Pujols comparison and would put some serious dollars down on that bet! I’d love to hear some other readers opinion on that one!

    1. Easy Cassidy. Step 1. I go to Baseball Reference Step 2. I read the comparisons

      I suggest you do the same. What you will see is both players peaked in their mid to late 20’s and are paid huge FOR YEARS after, Pujols to age 41, Trout to age 38.

      It ain’t advanced trig buddy.

      1. We’ll see what Trout does next year. I’ll bet he’s still one of the top 5 players in baseball if not the best. Because Pujols fell apart physically that doesn’ti mean every player will in their early thirties buddy

        1. Who said anything about “falling apart”? I never said that. What I said was “Trout, already past his prime, is making $37 million for several more years. He’s Pujols II. Good luck moving him.” He might have some good years left. But, numbers don’t lie. Multi million dollar baseball players peak before 30. I say Trout has peaked. He peaked early.

          1. Both AJ Pollock and Justin Turner’s best years so far are age 32-33. Brandon Crawford is having his best year at age 34. Brandon Belt’s two best years are age 32-33. So much for your BS theory.

            When you talk about Albert Pujols, he only had one year with an OPS over 800 with the Angels. So when you say that Trout is Pujols II, that would imply the same. Maybe you should wait for Trout to have a sub 800 OPS before you say that. He was OPSing over 1 when he got injured this year.

            If he isn’t falling apart and plays at even 85% of his current level, he’s well worth the money. If you think he’s got a bad contract, what do you think of Mookie’s?

          2. Do you even bother to research or do you just shout your nonsense every time you see something I write?

            I was in Arizona when AJ had his best year. He was 27. I saw him play in person many times. Crawford was 28 in his best year, Belt was 27-28 during his best years. Trout put up 10 WAR twice, once as a 20 year old, again at 24.

            You need to read up. I’ll leave it at that.

          3. Only when you say something ridiculous. Brandon Crawford’s wRC+ is almost 30 points higher than in 2015. You doubt I do my research? You look at one stat, Baseball Reference WAR. That’s not research.

            No sane person would think his 2015 stats are better than this year. Did you even bother to check Fangraphs WAR when you saw that then numbers don’t add up? …research.

          4. Of course I did. There are exceptions to the rule. Crawford is one. None of those other guys are.

            The information on when athletes peak is there for ALL to review, only you find argument with it.

            I think we’re done here.

          5. Many great players performed well into their late 30s.
            I see little reason to think that Trout, known for his work ethic, will fade fast. His calf injury is not nearly as serious as the injuries that turned Pujols into a slow shell of his former self. There is no rationale argument that Trout is “Pujols II.”
            The Angels are very much a team to watch in ’22, with both Trout and Rendon returning to join Ohtani and Walsh. Great potential. Bad news for Dodgers is that Trout is apparently lobbying for the Angels to go after Scherzer, another great player who is defying Father Time.
            Funny, I remember when I wanted the Angels to sign Bauer. Really glad they didn’t, but sorry that the Dodgers did.

  9. Made no sense for Trout to sign that extension with the Halos.
    Would have got paid anywhere he wanted, but opted to resign there.
    I said so at the time. They are not competing any time soon with their pitching or Farm. Surely he wanted to compete at some time in his career?

    Ohtani had his chance to sign with us once as we made a big play for him if you remember. We sent CK and an entourage to sweet talk him, but he opted to sign with a team that had Zero chance of winning a Title.

    Personally I just don’t understand either of those decisions if you are a Free Agent and can sign for a contender.

    If we can gain a game on SF tonight then we have a chance, if not time to plan for the WC.

    I would forget Cody for the remainder of this season. There are better options that can help us.

    2. I think the Halos gave him a more firm answer on being open to being a two way player. THAT was a “semi-guarantee” he was looking for at the time.
      cheers
      pb+

        1. And I agree there. But if we sign Scherzer, I do not see us having the $$cabbage$$ for another high priced pitcher if he is looking around when his contract is up.
          cheers
          pb+

      1. Pujols to the IL? Didn’t see that coming. They could have just as easily put Price on the IL. He only pitches once every couple of weeks anyways. 😉

    4. Ohtani was obviously attracted to the DH role. All NL teams were at a disadvantage in those negotiations. The Angels added the yellow HR line to the right field wall as another inducement. The old GM–Eppler, I think–had been courting Ohtani for years.
      My 12-year-old son, the crafty southpaw, just got three cheap jerseys for his birthday: Ohtani, Kershaw and Betts.
      I assume that the DH will come to the NL and, when the time comes, Ohtani could get the biggest FA contract ever (assuming he stays healthy). If the Angels can’t lock him up in a longterm deal, he’d get a big return in a trade.

    1. Wow, surprised to see Pages and Leonard on there. But, what really stood out for me is seeing Anthony Volpe SS, Yankees on first team. So, why would the Yankees break the bank for Seager if this guy is lurking right around the corner?

  12. Line up for tonight is the same as Sunday except Smith is back and so are Pollock and JT. Lux hitting 8th in CF. Betts, Seager, Turner, Muncy, Smith, JT, Pollock, Lux and Buehler.

  13. I didn’t see his error on Saturday night but I do think Seager’s defense has been noticeably better since returning from the IL. Ideally if there’s a DH, I would like to see Seager move to 3rd and TT return to SS but it isn’t worth losing Seager over. Pay the necessary price and eventually he will move off of Shortstop.

    1. Numbers say you’re right Hawk. He’s been better than replacement for a while. That’s a good thing. Hope he can keep it up.

  14. DODGERS ACTIVATE CODY BELLINGER

    LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers activated infielder/outfielder Cody Bellinger from the injured list and placed infielder Albert Pujols on the injured list.

    Bellinger, 26, was placed on the injured list with a left rib fracture, missing eight games. He has played in 89 games this year and is batting .159 with nine doubles, nine homers and 34 RBI. The 2019 National League MVP has been with the Dodgers five seasons, batting a combined .257 with 107 doubles, 132 homers and 352 RBI. The 2017 National League Rookie of the Year was originally drafted by the Dodgers in the fourth round of the 2013 First Year Player Draft out of Hamilton High School.

    Pujols, 41, has been with the Dodgers since May 17 and he is batting .255 (47-for-184) with 12 homers and 38 RBI in 82 games with the Boys in Blue. The three-time National League Most Valuable Player is in his 21st season in the Major Leagues and has amassed 679 homers and 2,150 RBI in 2,968 career games. His 679 homers are the most by any active player and rank fifth all-time, trailing Barry Bonds (762), Hank Aaron (755), Babe Ruth (714) and Alex Rodriguez (696).

    1. Albert had a reaction to his second Covid shot. Since the Covid IL has no time frame he could come back as soon as tomorrow if he feels up to it.

  15. This is old information, I first read it about 45 years ago in Michener’s book, “Sports in America” when I was a PE Graduate Student at Chico State. It would appear it may be time to review the information.

    https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/aging-curve/

    Players peak years of production is typically before 30. Some of course can continue to produce into their mid 30’s, but physical peaks are well established by bio science. I think the best roster balance is to find the gems in your own organization, keep them through their peak years, find the right free agent support players, mix, match p, rinse and repeat. Friedman appears to pretty good at doing just this.

    1. In your case of Mike Trout. If he peaks next year at age 30 at around 10 war, which he’s done twice and got well into the 9’s twice, and he diminishes by about .5 WAR per year as the Fangraphs article states, he’ll be a 6+ WAR player for the remainder of the contract. Does that sound like Albert Pujols?

      The article also clearly stats that this is on average on not something to bet on…

      “Keep in mind that aging curves are averages and that some players will do better or worse for lots of reasons. They are guides, not rules. Some of the main beliefs about aging are that defense and running peak early, hitters start to decline around 30, and that pitchers lose velocity pretty much from the day they make the majors. To that end, a basic rule of thumb is that once a player gets to 30, you sort of expect them to lose about 0.5 WAR per year of value due to aging. Some players will age better or worse, but that’s an average estimate.”

      1. Mike Trout is on his way to literally the all time greatest player ever (from April-Sept that is)

        There is no way he doesn’t take care of his body going forward like Lebron James

        1. Yeah, he’s on his way. Barry Bonds’ best 4 year run was age 36-39. It’s like he found the fountain of youth or something.

        2. Here are his projections for the rest of his career based on a polynomial model done in 2020. It projects 121.7 WAR by the end of his career.

          2020: 8.3 WAR
          2021: 7.9 WAR
          2022: 7.1 WAR
          2023: 6.2 WAR
          2024: 5.3 WAR
          2025: 4.5 WAR
          2026: 3.5 WAR
          2027: 2.7 WAR
          2028: 1.8 WAR
          2029: 1.0 WAR
          2030: 0.0 WAR

          Looks reasonable, right?

          He’s already 12.6 WAR behind that schedule. And he’s hurt. And he’s over 30 now. He’s still owed $37,116,667 x 9. The Angels aren’t likely going anywhere with him, just like they didn’t go anywhere with Albert. You think teams would be interested in that contract? Who? The Yankees? The Dodgers?

  16. Agree that Buhler should be on a short leash now. It’s all-hands-on-deck time, but it would be good for Buhler to get some rest. The fact that Kershaw wasn’t sharp in his last outing is also concerning, but it’s not a matter of fatigue. Scherzer and Urias seem like the most reliable SPs at the moment.
    The prospects of catching the Giants are very dim. Belt’s injury doesn’t change that much. I think it will be a bigger factor in the playoffs.
    I subscribe to the old notion that “it’s not how you start, but how you finish.” If I was a betting man, I’d put a wager on the superhot Cards defeating the Dodgers and rolling all the way to the World Series. Improbable, yes–but that’s why my bet would get a big return.
    Why are the Cards so hot? A key reason is terrific defense, something that the Dodger fans who convene here bizarrely tend to dismiss, as if the game is all about hitting and pitching. Arrenado and Molina have about 15 Gold Gloves between them, and the CF Bader could win one and that guy who succeeded Wong at 2B is terrific too.
    Now of course I’m rooting for our Dodgers, who might be remembered as the most dysfunctional squad ever to win 104 games. Unlike previous Dodger teams, this one just often seems out of sync.
    It’s interesting that the Padres, after all the high hopes, are relegated to the role of spoiler. I trust that the Pads on the field will play all their games with pride, but the their management may throw in the towel and rest the stars more to get a better look at prospects.
    I also suspect that, deep down, the Padres organization would much rather stick it to the Dodgers than to the Giants–another reason for my pessimism.

  17. JT just cost the Dodgers a run there not taking 2nd on that wild pitch. It’s those type of little things that have cost us some games this year. And the Cards just put up 6 runs in a game against Woodruff so it’s just not defense.

    1. Don’t take too much out of it he’s pitching against a floundering Padres team
      Also the Dodgers offense isn’t helping out two runs is unacceptable putting a lot of pressure on Bueller.
      Those stressful innings can only hurt him in the future. It’s a damn shame we can’t put a decent rally together

  21. My bad Badger. I was too over the top with you. It’s just that Pujols has had a 12.8 WAR with the Angels over the life of his Angel contract. I just don’t see Trout’s last 10 years anywhere near that bad.

  22. Poor Bellinger. Even if he’s 100% healthy Imagine the pressure he will be under the first of next year with hundreds of millions of dollars at stake in his career.

  24. So I joined Tim in suggest that maybe Buhler needs rest after those rough outings…….
    Can I take it back?

  25. Nothing to do with the good time that Lux lives with the bat with which OF is playing, in the middle of the season he had a very hot moment before entering a cold stage and then he injured his hamstring, that hot stage was playing SS, He will be a great player, a 20-20, he will be our Chase Utley in 2B, he is like a clone, let it be recorded.

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