It seems to me that lots of Dodger fans want to write off Luke Raley and Zach Reks after just a few at-bats… probably because they possess some kind of telekinetic superpowers that enable them to see exactly how good a player will be after just a few at-bats. Those fans are just gifted… that much we know! Yeah Right!
Here’s what we do know:
- At the beginning of this season, almost everyone wanted Matt Beaty to be dead and buried. He went back to AAA for a minute and came back to be a key cog in this team.
- Luke Raley has 50 ABs in the majors and is hitting just .180. However, at all levels (including MLB) for his career, he is hitting .302 with a .384 OB% and aa .901 OPS. That is over 2500 ABs.
- Zach Reks has a mere 2 AB’s and a .000 BA. For all levels in 1,794 ABs, Reks has hit .308 with a .396 OB% and a .866 OPS.
- Compare that with a guy like Kyle Garlick who (in 2,588 AB’s across all levels) has a .283 BA with a .348 OB% and .865 OPS. Kyle Garlick has been a useful 5th outfielder in parts of 3 MLB seasons.
- Mike Trout in his first 47 AB’s has a .163 BA.
- In Raley’s seven seasons in the minors, he has better numbers than Joc Pederson did in the minors in his seven seasons. Joc Pederson hit .143 in his first partial season and has had many months where he hit MUCH worse than Raley did in his first cup of coffee.
- Luke Raley has MORE POWER than Joc! Zach Reks also has harnessed his power.
Now, I am not going to predict that Raley or Reks will be better than Joc… although in my opinion, that bar is not very high. What I am saying is that there is no way in God’s Green Earth you can formulate a rational opinion about either player in a few ABs!. You are just making a snap decision based upon a negative outcome and you assume that it will continue. Mike Trout struggled with MLB pitching in the beginning… but he figured it out. That worked out pretty good.
Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Bo Bichette figured it out quickly. Last night, Wander Franco looked like the MVP in his first game, going2-4 with a double, 2-run HR and a BB. Gavin Lux has not been able to do that, but he may ultimately figure it out. Lux is frustrating as well. Progress is not linear. Reks and Raley are simply “depth” and one or both may ultimately pan out. Both will likely not be with the Dodgers when they do, much like Kyle Garlick.
Of Reks, Beaty and Raley, if I were forced to keep one, it would be Raley. That is just my opinion. Baseball America said this:
“Raley is incredibly strong with bulging biceps and plus-plus raw power. He frequently hit home runs on top of the parking garage beyond right field at Southern California’s Dedeaux Field during the alternate site and showed the ability to hit opposite-field home runs, too. His swing is oriented to his pull-side and he needs to improve his plate discipline, but he’s productive against both righties and lefties and has the bat speed to be an average hitter who taps into his power often enough. Raley is an average runner and plays hard defensively in left field. He’s occasionally too aggressive and collides with other fielders or the wall. He has above-average arm strength despite a funky throwing stroke.”
In case, we forget, Raley was traded to the Twins in 2018 in the trade for Brian Dozier, and he was devastated by it because he really loved the Dodgers. Well, he got his wish, because he was traded back to the Dodgers before last season along with The Bazooka in the Kenta Maeda trade.
I like Luke Raley a lot. Don’t judge him by 50 MLB ABs, because they you are going to look like a fraud. What could the Dodgers get for Reks and Beaty? Maybe by adding in another prospect or two, the Dodgers could get a relief pitcher like Richard Rodriguez. How about Beaty, Carson Taylor, Edwin Uceta, and DJ Peters for Rodriguez?
Dodgers News & Notes
- Kershaw was OK last night, and the bullpen did their job, but the hitters failed to deliver in the clutch. The Dodgers had 8 hits and 5 walks, compared to the Padres 4 hits and 3 walks. I guess this loss is on Doc, because if Austin Barnes had started, he might have won it with 4th HR. Instead Doc started that bum, Will Smith.
- Mookie Betts played like he had the flu… Oh wait, he did. Mookie Bette: .248 BA. Alex Verdugo .289 BA. Just sayin’…
- Cody Bellinger due back today. Hopefully, these guys can start to their their way out of a wet paper bag!
- By the way, I am also high on Sheldon Neuse. No, I do not predict stardom for him, but I do see him as a nice RH utilityman.
- The Bazooka pitch a clean inning last night, throwing 6 pitches (all strikes) to get 3 outs.
- Justin Bruihl started at Tulsa and in 15 IP put up a 1.20 ERA. He was moved to OKC where he now has a 1.59 ERA in 5.2 IP (10 K’s). Watch for him in a Ravine near you this August or September.
- Is Kevin Quackenbush even a possibility? He still has a 0.00 ERA (he got his 7th save last night) and in 15.2 IP, he has allowed 9 hits, struck out 16 and walked 10.
- Melvin Jimenez may be on the move to Tulsa shortly… if he keeps up his current pace. The same is true for Ryan Ward.
- Here is something really ugly: 3.2 IP/5 H/1 ER/4 BB/ 6 K’s – That was Michael Grove last night at Tulsa.
- Diego Cartaya has to move to GL… at the very least… maybe Tulsa! Diego was 2-4 last night and is hitting .344 with a 1.152 OPS. With his power and bat, I would consider a move to 1B.
- 3B Brandon Lewis is “quietly” have a wonderful year at RC (.293 BA/.392 OB%/.959 OPS). He hit his 9th HR last night.
- Mike Busch doubled in the winning run last night for Tulsa in the 8th inning as he struggles to master AA pitching. You can see that he will shortly.
- Miguel Vargas is heating up at AA with a 2-3 night last night and 2 BB.
- Nate Robertson (1.35 ERA) needs to move to AAA.
- Outfielder Ryan Ward of GL is also quietly having a great sesaon (.318 BA/.925 OPS)
I didn’t expect much going into this series. I realize that getting a player or two off the IL is just as bad as losing them to the IL in the first place. Muncy was 0-fer last night with a couple of walks, no big hits. Betts is sick again and Belli’s replacement did absolutely nothing. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky that good. The Padres are both, so they win a tough one run game last night. I don’t expect us to get really hot until Belli and Muncy find their groove.
I briefly looked through last night’s comments and ran across one stating “When was the last time Pollock had a big hit?” So, I thought I would answer that since some people seem to have short or selective memories. He was 3-4 with 3 RBI on Sunday. That wasn’t very long ago. As we often see with this team, Doc has a propensity to cool off a hot player, seemingly punishing him for a big day by sitting he the next.
Snell is pretty bad this year, but like all lefties, he’s Cy Young against this team.
It was nuts. Two blind squirrels found each found a nut when Barnes and Kim both homered for their respective teams.
Kershaw made two mistakes last night and they found the seats. So, he’s a number three? I think you should look around the league at all the number three’s out there and see what a number three looks like.
With Mookie playing sick, Muncy’s first game back, Belli and Seager out, we played a full strength Padres team with one hand tied behind our backs and lost by a run. The sky is not falling. I fully expect this team to steam-roll very soon when health is on our side.
Mookie Betts OPS+ 129, Alex Verdugo OPS+ 119. Just sayin’.
That horrible bullpen kept the game close, but we simply didn’t have enough firepower to close it out. I’m wondering if Doc is getting kickbacks from advertisers for making unnecessary mid-inning pitching changes. I guess Treinen needed some work and there were a few more commercials that needed to get run.
Ok, so when does the Giants luck run out and the Dodgers luck kick in.
By the end of July, we will have a lead bigger than the Giants have at the end of June. Happy? Try to stay calm and rational until then.
Buehler vs. deGrom in the play-in game. First run scores via Manfredball in the 10th.
Mookie has been disappointing this year….sits out for too many minor issues. That is what happens when you give out those big contracts. Along with our clueless manager with his lineups that make no sense, we are struggling to beat the better teams. Roberts has proven again this year his pitching management decisions show that he lacks the skills to effectively manage a bullpen….just look at our record in one run and extra inning games.
Mookie has been disappointing this year….sits out for too many minor issues. That is what happens when you give out those big contracts. Along with our clueless manager with his lineups that make no sense, we are struggling to beat the better teams. Roberts has proven again this year his pitching management decisions show that he lacks the skills to effectively manage a bullpen….just look at our record in one run and extra inning games.
Mookie has been a major disappointment this year…..production is way off and he is sitting out way too many games with minor issues and to rest. This unfortunately happens with the huge guaranteed contracts that are given out….look at how many games the Harpers/Stanton’s/Bett’s are missing. It is OK to be playing when you are not 100%.
I t is really hard to understand the pitching decisions that are made by our manager….he is clueless with his pitching management decisions. He continues to mismanage the pitching changes within an inning as evident in his moves in the 8th inning of tonight’s game vs SD and supported by the fact of our losing record in extra inning and one run games. We have the best team on paper but unfortunately roberts is not the guy to lead our team. He is purely a PR guy that isn’t capable of getting the best out of our team.
With another loss Dodgers now 3 games back of the Midgets who are not letting up one bit. Dodgers better find their groove soon or they will dig a too deep a hole to climb out. Giants doing with so many different ways. Some day their pitching is absurdly good and when the pitching has an off day their offense dishes out runs in bundles. So far a dream season for them, everything going their way so far.
Dodgers on the other find ways to lose the close games almost every time. Yesterday they had so many chances and never could come up with the key hit.
Need Cody and Cory back and Mookie has to heat up too.
Cartaya is a superb c so I would not advocate a move to 1b yet. However a move like that might be in the future ala Konerko or Santana who had great careers at 1b after starting at c. Would sent him to GL soon, nothing left to prove for him a low A ball.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
But Konerko and Santana went to 1B because they were good on offense and bad on defense, Cartaya is another story, he is the complete package.
Mark, if you are saying Luke Raley could be the next Kyle Garlick you are technically right.
I see better ball and strike callers at the College WS than at the major league level. They are very good at letting you know the pitch is high, low, inside or outside. I have enjoyed the College WS.
Been through this way too many times to panic. All teams go through stretches like this. The Giants have not had theirs yet. This is not last years team. They have way more injuries, there are 7 players from that team who are playing somewhere else. They have had to plug holes with players who have not played in the majors before, and for the most part, those players have not to this point posted the same kinds of numbers they did at AAA. Three of their best players have been on the IL for extended periods of time, their 300 million dollar man is playing more like a 2 million dollar man at this point. Their starting pitching took a hit almost immediately out of the gate, and they still on the 23rd of June are only 3 games back. The Padres have played 3 games more than either the Giants or Dodgers and lost all 3. Those are games they will never get back. They have a lot of players who are not playing up to what we expect. Muncy and Taylor are playing well. Smith is streaky. He will have a stretch where he is hitting the ball harder than anyone, and then a game like last night where he rolled over on a couple of pitches killing rally’s. Face it, Machado made a great play on the ground ball Smith hit when the Dodgers had the sacks loaded. And give the Pads pitching a lot of credit. The Dodgers are hitting below the Mendoza line against their starters. Help is on the way, and there is plenty of time for them to make a huge impact on the rest of the year. And we all know there are daily meetings about what the team needs, and which direction they will go. Tsutsugo is 1-11 over his last several games, so it seems they have not figured out what is his problem. Nate Jones was outrighted to OKC, but as of right now he is not on their roster. I think we will see some changes. I have to believe that somewhere along the way, the team will get really hot like they were in April. As for Roberts, everyone can bitch about him as much as they like, but the guy is not going anywhere. I would like to see Lux use his speed and try bunting down the line against the shift. I would love to see the hitters themselves look at Turner and how he goes with the pitch when he knows he is not going to be able to turn on it with any kind of success. These are not the World Champions. A lot of those guys are gone.
The Dodgers are not going through a bad streak, they are playing very well, after going 5W-15L they have been playing, since then, 26-12 (.684).
Offensively they are not doing that well. HR’s are down, and RISP is too,
A concern I have is the seeming indifference some of our pitchers have in keeping runners from stealing at will. In a close play-off series the Braves and Padres are 2 teams I see that could exploit this weakness. I’ve noticed some don’t even look to an occupied bass before throwing home. Hopefully this improves as the season progresses.
I totally agree on that point. Our pitchers have made it almost impossible for the catchers to throw anyone out.
Historically both Kersh and Urias have been great holding runners on and both have great pick off moves. Bauer looks like a matador with runners on tho.
His leg kick is too easy to time. Buehler is ok, but does not have a great move either. And history is ok if you keep it up. Smith almost nailed one last night. But there have been way too many steals against this staff. Nelson has the right idea, just don’t let anyone get on base. Lets hope Belli heats up pretty fast. Lineup, Taylor 2B, Muncy 1B, Turner 3B, Bellinger CF, Smith C, Beaty LF, Lux SS, Mckinstry RF, Bauer P. Betts still battling stomach flu.
Old friend Sergio Romo and his take on the new substance check:
https://twitter.com/ChrisHalicke/status/1407531679636496384?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1407531679636496384%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fftw.usatoday.com%2Flists%2Foakland-as-sergio-romo-drops-pants-for-ump-over-search
HORRIBLE ball/strike calling last not on top of everything else. IMO
The umpiring has sucked most of the year. I personally cannot wait for the electronic strike zone, no more shift and us putting the Padres in the rear view mirror.
Other than the Dodgers losing again to the Padres and the Giants leading the NL West, the biggest story of the day was Dave Roberts coming out against shifts. Okay, baseball wants more excitement and more hits, then the shift needs to end. Seems rather simple. Roberts made that point.
I’m not sure about Reks or Raley. The verdict is still out. Players can adjust and improve. Expect Lux to continue to get better. He shows signs, but just needs to be consistent.
The Dodgers minor league system is looking better every day. Lots of talent coming through the system.
Have no idea why Mookie isn’t Mookie. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes off in July and finishes well.
DODGERS ACTIVATE CODY BELLINGER
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers activated outfielder Cody Bellinger from the 10-day injured list and optioned infielder Andy Burns to Triple-A Oklahoma City.
Bellinger, 25, returns after missing seven games on the injured list with left hamstring tightness. On the season, the outfielder has missed 53 games and has had two stints on the injured list. He has appeared in 16 games, batting .226 (14-for-62) with one double, one homer and 10 RBI. The 2019 National League MVP has been with the Dodgers five seasons, batting a combined .272 with 99 doubles, 124 homers and 328 RBI. The 2017 National League Rookie of the Year was originally drafted by the Dodgers in the fourth round of the 2013 First Year Player Draft out of Hamilton High School.
Burns, 30, made eight appearances for the Dodgers, batting .273 (3-for-11) with three walks and two runs scored. He recorded his first Major League hit in his Dodger debut on June 12 against the Rangers. In his minor league career, he has hit a combined .268 (754-for-2811) with 79 homers and 366 RBI across eight seasons. He was originally drafted by the Blue Jays in the 11th round of the 2011 First Year Player Draft out of the University of Arizona.
* I have lobbied for the ABS System since the end of last season in hopes that it might be in place for spring training this year. That didn’t happen and we get legit complaints about balls and strike calls every day. What’s the hold up? Maybe it isn’t as perfected as I assume but I don’t know that because MLB keeps such information locked up at The Cheyenne Mountain Complex by NORAD and it’s considered Top Secret. I suspect it will eventually be used as a bargaining chip despite the fact most everyone wants it.
* While it ended up not mattering, Myers steal in the 6th displayed another example of how not to execute a tag play, Lux’s tag on the steal had everything wrong. He started with a set-up way in front of the bag, his left foot was a foot in front on 2nd. He caught Smith’s perfect throw about 3 feet in front of the base. Had he let the throw travel, its right on top of the bag. He could have then pop tagged and it’s an out. Instead he used a sweep tag that travelled about 5 or 6 feet to Myer’s far shoulder, while Myer’s hand got to the bag.
Baseball fundos 101 – Where is the runner trying to get to? The answer is obviously, THE BASE. So take the glove and ball to the base. Even a sweep tag can stop at the front of the bag. Do not reach for the runner. It’s not just Lux. I see poor mechanics every day on tag plays and it usually starts with bad footwork and not allowing the ball to travel. In the long haul, these fundoes matter and can win or lose games.
* 2 homers were CK’s undoing. I wish he could get through the 1st more often without damage. Overall he showed again why he’s a future HOF’er He finds a way to stay in the game without his A stuff, which we see less and less frequently. But he just competes.
* Once again the bullpen threw a shutout.
* This team can be vulnerable without the long ball. We just don’t string enough hits together. We didn’t score bottom 4. Big chance missed. 10 LOB hurt.
* Speaking of fundamentals, Crismatt might have the lamest attempted bunt in the history of baseball.
If I didn’t dislike the Padres so much this was probably a very entertaining game to watch.
Bret Degeus DFA’d by the Rangers. Maybe we get him back…
That was what I said a couple of weeks ago. AF can have him if he wants him.
Your de Geus is as good as mine.
2B Chris
1B Max
3B Justin
CF Cody
C Will
LF Matt
SS Gavin
RF Zach
P Trevor
Bauer better be on his game with this lineup featuring a cold Beaty, Muncy and Bellinger and no Mookie.
Or not!
I cannot imagine a hitter taking 3 fast balls right down the middle and not swinging at one of them.
Beaty doesn’t hit well enough to play that bad of defense!
Whatever it takes to lose another close game. Tonight BAD defense and weak offense.
Bad Bullpen.
Four games behind the Giants.
That was a great game to watch. Those last few innings were Playoff type intensity.
Not second guessing, but did not like the decision to load the basses with Gonzo coming out to pitch.
Poor play by Beaty, who will never be a CF, and particularly JT did not help.
Finally, what a player Machado is. He was involved in absolutely everything and is the leader of that team. Maybe Mookie needs to start earning his money when he starts to play again, and play with the same intensity he did when he arrived last year.
Forget who’s available or unavailable, the Padres want it more than us, and that is not acceptable.
Could be worse, though. We could be Angels fans.
Panic vs. stay the course…do neither. The reality is we are not going to make the World Series with our current 40 man roster. We have no depth at SP and holes in the BP that need to rectified. So rather than panic attempt to trade wisely for starting pitcher depth and bullpen health. If we are giving up anything of real long term value than the return should also helps both this year and the future. Andrew’s role is to equip us to compete with the best teams not just the 500 and below group. We have exploitable holes and it’s not just about injuries.
I think the article makes good points about Raley and Reks. I would add that Peters really only needs work (coaching) on hitting/taking high fastballs. The guy has power and excellent defensive skills. He just swings at too many fastballs up and out of the zone. He needs a one on one mentor.
A few other random thoughts: Mookie’s defense alone is enough to want him in the game and he will heat up. Roberts bullpen management isn’t horrible, his pitchers don’t execute often enough. What’s wrong with giving Quackenbush a try? Also, should Cody cut down on his swing with 2 strikes and live with a base hit with RISP? Ultimately we would be better off with him hitting for average more. In the games I’ve watched this year we have been hurt often by mistake pitches that get slammed; it’s really noticeable. When you combine that with inconsistent offense it’s clear why we are losing so many games. Finally, I’d rather not make the WS than give up our best young talent/future stars.
This is my first trip to this site this year. The quality of the articles I’ve read on other sites thus far is far below the quality needed to interest knowledgable and devoted Dodger fans. Sorry, but it’s true.
So, who is making you read this? If you don’t like it, don’t let the doorknob hit ya’ where the good Lord split ya!
Grow a pair and leave!