I will give you 8 Million reasons why… but those reasons do not last forever. However, at the present juncture Dave Roberts has to find out if Joe Kelly is a viable option. Last night, he did not pitch well (and that is being kind). In his two previous outings he looked much better, while in his first outing, he was bombed. At some point in the next couple of weeks, we should start to be able to see what he is going to be out of the bullpen. He had a valid reason why he did not pitch well the last two seasons: He had a massive cyst in his shoulder that was not only painful but limited his motion. It is a wonder that he could even pitch.
He is not back to 100% yet, but he is closing in on it. In another week or two, we should know whether Joe Kelly will be a bullpen asset or whether he might be a bullpen causality! But, to get there, he HAS to pitch. He is an experienced pitcher who touches 100 MPH, but has never been consistent for long periods. He was very good during the 2018 World Series, but that has really been the last time. So, we watch, and we hold our collective breaths when Doc rolls him out. Right now, he has had two good outings and two bad outings. The leash is not long, but there is a leash and the only way to solve this riddle is for him to pitch.
Since Kenly Jansen can no longer pitch in back-to-back games, does that mean he has to give back last night’s save? (sarcasm alert) Just when fans think they have it all figured out, they don’t! Kenley Jansen is right back near the top of the list in the race for the best closer in baseball. Go figure! Most of you had him dead and buried, which means that there is hope for Joe Kelly. I have no opinion as to whether Joe will succeed and be a solid part of the bullpen or whether he will be another cast-off. He just has to pitch… and the results will be apparent. This will sort itself out!
Rants & Raves
- Albert Pujols has played a role in two Dodger wins so far. If that is it… so be it – it’s been worth it, but something tells me this story is just getting started.
- Mike Busch is starting to look like he can stick at 2B – he is moving much better than early in the season and his glove is more “confident.” I believe it is just repetition and confidence. He appears to be a hard worker and his glove at 2B could ultimately become a “plus!” I have watched several games already.
- Except for Joe Kelly, how about that bullpen?
- Muncy and Smith are getting hot at the right time.
- Mookie and JT will be fine – it is just the ebb and flow of the season and maybe both have some nagging injuries. It’s not often that you are 100% healthy anyway!
Dodgers Minor League Report
- OKC BOXSCORE OKC dropped to 3-10 as they lost 8-4 to the Albuquerque Isotopes. Andy Burns hit a 2-run HR and Carlos Asuaje was 2-3 and that was about it.
- TULSA BOXSCORE The Drillers won 4-3 beating the Wind Surge and improving to 8-7. The Drillers only had 3 hits but one of them was a 2-run HR by Jacob Amaya. Kody Hoese and Devin Mann also had hits that drove in runs. All three hits scored runs. Now that is efficiency! Ryan Pepiot started and went 4.0 innings, allowing 1 hit and no runs (1.50 ERA). Nate Robertson followed him, pitching two innings and allowing his first two runs of the year. Aaron Ochsenbein also went two innings allowing 0 hits and no runs. Zach Willeman closed it out getting his 2nd save, even though he allowed a solo HR.
- GREAT LAKES BOXSCORE The Loons also won 5-3 over the Captains. Miguel Vargas (.305/.917 OPS) and Andy Pages (.186) each hit HR’s. C Carson Taylor (who has some upside) was 2-4 with 3 RBI. Jose Martinez (22-year-old RH) started and allowed 2 ER in 4 IP (his worst outing of the year) and left with his ERA sitting at 1.35. Cole Percival followed with 3 shutout innings (1 H, 3 K. 2.53 ERA). Melvin Jiminez got his first save, pitching the last two scoreless innings (2.45 ERA).
- RANCHO CUCAMONGA BOXSCORE Rancho came up a run short as Julian Smith gave up 3 runs in the 8th and 9th. Jake Vogel got a hit and a walk and scored 2 runs (.210 BA). Aldrich De Jongh was 4-5 with 2 HR (.467/1.729 OPS). 20-year-old Jorbit Vivas was 2-5 and Brandon Lewis was 2-4. Tough luck!
Well, Kelly has never been terribly consistent, although he has stretches. Mostly about control. Lot of upside, but you do have to produce.
Interesting story in today’s LA Times about Clayton Kershaw not being a fan of all the recent no hitters, thinks it’s bad for the game. Again, he points out the changes made by baseball haven’t worked they way they were intended.
Offense is down across the board. Cumulative batting average of .236 and averaging 7.82 hits a game, an all time low and 8.98 strikeouts per game, an all-time high. Homers are down from a record 1.39 in 2019 to 1.14 this year.
None of this is good for a game many already see as lacking action. Honestly, at times I’m bored with the game and frustrated with the lack of action. Baseball needs to figure this out and fast. Plus the growing numbers of star players on the injured list should lead to a total rethink of where the game is going.
So, Kershaw is correct in expressing concern. The future of the game is at stake.
What do you expect from a certified a$$hole like Manfred? What an idiot!
Bring back the juiced ball!
They made 3 changes to the ball. 1) Less tension on one of the strings that are wound around the core (I think there are 3 layers of string wound around the ball and they loosened the 3rd wrap if I remember correctly). 2) More texture on the cover. 3) Raised the laces that hold the ball together. All of these things contribute to more drag, less distance. It seems that the seams being raised is the culprit that causes more movement on the pitches. Lower the laces and we probably have a more perfect ball. The ball will travel a little further than it currently is, but the pitches would have less movement, similar to what it was before.
Trial and error, I guess.
It’s early in the season and offense is down. I doubt they will make any drastic changes during the season, but I can see a scenario where the balls are slightly modified before season’s end. I doubt that they will just throw out the current inventory, but I also doubt that the entire stock of baseballs are made before the season begins. I wonder if the baseball factories at Rawlins are already starting to produce balls that have been adjusted again and will start to be introduced as the season progresses. I seems that lowering the seams would be an easy fix to increase the juice slightly without having to reinvent the wheel.
Or, just do as AVF said and go back to the old recipe and try again next year.
Kershaw was saying that impact on the new ball was like hitting a balloon. Comes off the bat faster, but dies more quickly.
HR/FB% is down a couple of percentage points from 2019, as are the other stats you mentioned. I don’t think spin rates have changed much. To make sense of the league wide decline you’d start with the hypothesis that the change in the ball has contributed to lower offensive numbers.
The goal was to increase game action by simply reducing the number of home runs and keeping more balls in play, but hits are down and strikeouts are up, so it’s not working. Another clue is that there are more hit batters this year – it’s actually pretty dramatic. Also, I read a comment by a pitcher somewhere, maybe here, that the seams seem higher and the ball seems softer. (and easier to grip)
Hypothesis: The change in the ball to make them less hard and subsequently reduce the home run rate has increased the amount of pitch movement on all pitches, making them harder to hit and increasing the strikeout rate and soft contact.
Across the league, there is also a noticeable reduction in the percentage of fastballs thrown, down from 52.5% in 2019 to 50.8% at a slightly increased velocity of 93.4 vs. 93.1. Slider usage has gone up over a full percentage point followed by curveball %. One possible explanation for this is that pitchers are already realizing that the increased movement is making their secondary pitches more effective, therefore they use them more.
A stat nerd with time on his hands can test this pretty easily by going to a site like baseballsavant and comparing league averages for vertical and horizontal movement between years.
There is a certain level of hubris in thinking you can tweak things through subtle manipulation to achieve a desired effect. It’s like social engineering. It usually backfires, and in this case, we are seeing the law of unintended consequences in action.
There should be samples of baseballs stored from each year, and each year balls should be tested for consistency. The playing field, the bases, the balls, the bats should remain constant year to year. It’s why people appreciate the game and why it is unique.
If you want to ban the shift – fine. If you want to crack down on pitchers using Stickum, great! Don’t mess with the game.
Joc and Kike both batting leadoff, when they play
Call me crazy but I think Kelly could be a factor this year for us. He needs to trust his fastball and throw it more often and get it up in the zone with 2 strikes. I like his change and his slider will be more effective if he throws it less often. Speaking of sliders Kenley is dealing with his off speed stuff this year. He even threw a curve last night. Can’t remember the last time I saw that pitch from him. You can see his confidence growing and therefore he’s throwing more strikes. Right now he along with Treinen, Gonzalez and Nelson give us nice end of game solutions. And if Price and Kelly can regain their mojo and Knebel and Graterol come back I really like our bullpen. I’m predicting Kelly surprises us like Kenley has.
Well, today is a good day. We improved our record in one run games and Kenley had a nice back to back as MT pointed out. His line was identical to his previous night. 1 0 0 0 0 2. Two clean innings in a row. Man, I year for the Kenley that used to go out there and pitch 4 days in a row. Are we going to get him back? His H/9 is very low, even by his standards. He’s no longer a 1 pitch guy. Can he end up being better than he was during his peak. Look at Kimbrel. It could happen! Baseball is weird that way.
While Pujols may only get 1 hit per game, it seems like he picks up ribby’s like I pick up ribs on the forth of July. Will Smith homers and we find out after the games that he’s mentoring Will Smith. Maybe he can mentor Yoshi.
I’m not too concerned with Kelly giving up a bomb to the DBags best hitter. This happens sometimes. Give him a few games.
Has anyone noticed that Vesia is really, really dirty? 6 innings 10 Ks one hit so far this season with scoreless innings in his last three games. Get rid of those walks and he’s gonna be really freaking good.
The Giants series starts tonight! Who would have thought they would be in first place for our first meeting against our historic rivals this year? No one! They are playing above their heads. The Giants are 2nd in baseball in HRs and the Dodgers are 17th? This is not going to last. Brandon Crawford, a 34 year old career .250 hitter has 11 big flys already. That’s about 10% of his career total for homers. Baseball is weird. His career best is 21 homers in a season, he’s on pace for 41. That’s some Brady Anderson type production.
It will be interesting to see if they ball fly out this weekend. The wind is blowing on shore, so it’s going to be cool and damp coming from the ocean. But, that direction is also blowing out towards the outfield.
Alex Wood is on the bump tonight, so no doubt he’ll be doing his Cy Young impression as all mediocre lefties seem to do against the Dodgers. I’m confident that Bauer will come up on top. We may need to manufacture a couple of runs.
The thing with Kenley is he’s not relying on just the cutter anymore. Maybe that’s the key for him being successful going forward.
Kenley’s about the same age as Aroldis Chapman. Chapman is having the best year of his career so far. His K/9 is a pretty insane 19. He’s throwing his fastball less and started throwing a splitter.
In the minors Vesia’s BB % was pretty low for the most part. I think there’s hope.
Turner and Betts need to step up this weekend. JT’s bat looks like it’s in slow motion right now and Betts is getting beat inside and chasing away. Happy for Wood but not tonight!
The organist trolling Josh Reddick last night was CLASSIC!
* Kelly pitched much better than the outcome last night. His real mistake was the hanger to Escobar. 2 errors didn’t help his cause, especially the miscommunication in right center with Taylor and Mookie. But I think his stuff looks great to me. He seems better controlling that arm side runner, veto and movement. No more 24 sliders in a row. He will be an asset before this is over.
* I was surprised that Doc left Kelly in to pitch to Reddick and Peralta but I won’t second guess that one. Kelly was throwing well, in my opinion.
* Another surprise was throwing Gonzales 1.1 innings and Treinen only one, 15 pitch inning, which was going to leave the 9th uncovered. It was obvious that Doc planned KJ for the 9th despite past evidence That he struggles on back-to-back days. Doc seems committed to the pre-game plan and the plan worked perfectly. I’m not prepared to scrap the idea of not pitching KJ on back-to-back days based on this one outcome.
* The play of the game for me was the Treinen and Smith combo that threw out that rabbit, Locastro in the 8th in a 3-2 game. I watched it a couple of times and had Treinen’s time to home at 1.24 and Smith’s pop time on a nice high pitch that served as a modified “pitch-out”, at 1.80. That’s 3.04 to nip this guy who can fly. That’s is just outstanding. Smith and Barrnes get criticized for the high steal rate against the Dodgers but our pitchers don’t give them much of a chance usually. Treinen did and it paid off big-time. Beautiful play.
* Hopefully JT will get it going against the Giants. He’s had a rough patch going 1 for his last 20. He looks like he could use a day off to me, but not against the Giants.
* Hitting has never been harder. Molly Knight of the Athletic has a nice article on the lack of offense in MLB displayed by the number of no-hitters. She quotes Managers and reasons like the baseball, loading the baseball, style of launch angle hitting, shifts – putting all defenders in the right spots, velo, and great advance scouting.
And my favorite, advanced technology with stuff like Edgartronics and Rapsodo. My theory is tech has helped the pitchers MORE than the hitters at this point. Sure, hitters can polish their swings and look for flaws and holes but they are now being asked to hit pitchers who have developed better stuff through technology. Chris Woodward of the Rangers agrees “I think the technology and understanding and being able to make pitches that much better— [pitchers] can now look at Edgertronic cameras and Rapsodos and all kinds of different things to get these pitches to come out of the same exact [arm] tunnel,” said Woodward. “We didn’t know all that stuff 10 years ago, and the guys that did had an advantage. We’re maximizing everything these guys throw”
Big series coming up and I can’t wait.
Exactly what I was going to say about Kelly. The double down the line no one could have got. But he had 2 strikes on him and tossed a cookie. He got squeezed a little by the ump on one of the ball calls too.
Sarcastic comment last night Bear about Kenley! Right now he should pitch every night! More sarcasim
No problem…we all know you absolutely LOVE Dave Roberts and Kenley is your favorite Dodger!
Where does Manfred and his minions get the right to change the game as they see fit. As I’ve said before, I don’t think Manfred likes baseball and wants to “fix it”. The baseball is an example. I have an image from the movie, “Flash Gordon” where Ming the Merciless is talking with Klytus about what they want to screw with today. Ming is played by Rob Manfred and what they decide to screw with is the baseball. Seriously, what gives him the right to change the game? I think the ball is different and we’ll see this summer, He and his office, under a cloak of secrecy thinks there are too many home runs so he goes about changing the game. What process was done prior to the decision? Maybe it needed to happen but is that determined by Darth Rob?
Manfred is the owners. If you think the owners have no right to change baseball you have every right to that opinion, but he is not acting on his own. He’s basically the owners’ puppet and does their bidding.
So, how do we explain to Seager that we can’t resign him because we now need to resign Kenley and with whatever money we have left we have to bring back Kersh. Luckily, Corey was going to NY anyway so it doesn’t make any difference. And based on the games that Pujols has played for us I think a 5 year contract would be in order. Any objections?
Okay, STB, what gives the owners the right to change the game as they see fit? Does ownership of a franchise give them the right to change the game? In this case in a top secret vacuum. No conversations with the Player’s Union, no transparency, no information. Folks have to give baseballs an autopsy to try to discover how the baseballs are different.
I’m not saying it can’t piss you off, but they basically own the game. The players are the employees. The employees can go on strike. We are the customers. We can refuse to buy the product.
But…………………………….the owners own the game.
Ok Arte, whatever you want!
I agree with PhilJones here. The owners don’t have carte blanche to change the game, nor does Manfred. If you asked me, MLB should be forced to divest in Rawlings. Don’t you think it’s more than coincidence that the ball was “juiced” beginning in 2019 right after MLB bought them? Now, the ball is basically a wiffle ball? How hard would it be to go back to the pre 2019 recipe?
This commissioner has been “fixing” a healthy game that Selig left behind. The only “issue” was the game was too long. Never heard that until they implemented replay. Stop F-ing with the game!
Replay should be so much quicker especially on the close plays on the bases. How hard could it be to have multiple camera angles fixed on each base all game? They should have guys at the stadium already reviewing any close play ready to make the call as soon as they’re contacted. They shouldn’t have to call MLB headquarters to get the call.
I don’t like rule changes in general. However, I like the three batter rule and after a lot of thought, I would also embrace a shifting rule to keep two infielders on each side of second base. I think making them stay on the grass is a bit drastic and will artificially impact offense in a bad way. But, if two infielders can’t cover one side of the field, then you need to get better gloves out there. A hitter deserves a hit if he can hit and ground ball hard enough, or perfectly placed between two infielders on one side of the field.
Nice Flash Gordon references by the way. Movie or comic book?
Movie. Max von Sydow was a great Ming. Corny, colorful and Queen.
If Kelly has to pitch then have him pitch in blowout games.
Dodgers National League stats:
#1 in run differential.
#1 in team pitching OPS.
#1 in team batting OPS.
What’s more is the expected win loss record has the dodgers in a 3 way tie for best record in the National League with the Padres and Giants at 28-16.
Since there is no DH in the National League, it is unfair to compare a National League team with an American League team.
That MIGHT be the plan for Kelly, but since last night was all hands for the bp, hard to argue with him in there. And frankly, I thought he looked pretty good except for hanging that one pitch. As noted, NO ONE could have stopped that double, it was just a result of the shift & the batter sticking the bat out. I still think Kelly has tons of upside & was happy to also see him touch 99 with pretty decent control.
He was one pitch away from getting out of the inning and he pitched bad?? That is moronic thinking. He made one bad pitch. The hanger for the homer. The double was hit on a pretty good pitch on the outer half of the plate and he just went with it. I would like to see some of our guys practice that. Especially Turner who could not hit water if he fell out of a boat right now…thank you Tommy for that little aside. He also threw a pitch that should have been called a strike and was not. Umpire was consistent with his zone to the outer portion of the plate, but up and down he missed a few.
There’s three strong guys at the back end in every other day except yesterday Kenley, V-Gone and Treinen. Someone will have to step up when those guys aren’t pitching. Who’s that going to be right now? It isn’t Santana and Nelson is being used to take down multiple innings, as is Price, as is Uceta. Go ahead and rearrange them so Kelly never has to pitch in leverage even though he’s been used that way his whole career.
Kelly pitched in the 7th and 8th innings his last three outings and put up nothing but zeros. He give up one freaking HR and now you have to use him only in blowouts. C’mon man!
Busch, Pepiot, Vargas, Pages, Miller
Phenomenal article in TheAthletic about the increasing and seemingly omni-present use of foreign substances by pitchers.
The subtext is that it’s really reaching a critical mass type point.
Can’t wait to hear Bauer’s response.
He’s at war with Kenny R.
Adames, who was the last out of the World Series, traded by the Rays to the Brewers in a 4 player trade. Realmuto to the IL and Strasburg activated by the Nats.
I hope everybody here is doing okay. I mean having ” he never dives” Seager out , it must be tough not having him around to beat up on. Well just wait till the trade honeymoon bump is over for Pujols. He’s going to be a BIG target.
lol – Funny and True!
My expectations of Pujols aren’t high. If he collects a few big PH or RBIs then he will do what’s there to do.
I don’t care what Albert hits. I want to know if he’s willing to dive.
Stadium going back to full capacity on 6-15. Hope you locals have fun!
We’re gonna kill the Giants tonight because we have stats on our side.
Taylor in left.
Neuse at second.
Peters in center.
All right handed hitters against the southpaw Wood.
Muncy (one of our few hot hitters) sits. He’s left handed.
Oh, and by the way, Wood’s splits this year?
Left handed hitters are batting .300.
Right handed hitters are batting .165.
I’ve noticed that about Doc. He doesn’t care about reverse splits. He’s a go by the book manager. I don’t like it.
He sure is and Muncy historically hits lefties the same as righties. Maybe he was just due for an off day.
Joe Kelly has never been consistently good. Period. His career WHIP is almost 1.4. A late-inning reliever can’t give up 13 baserunners / 9 innings pitched. He has had 2 season out of 10 with a WHIP below 1.3. Career BB/9 is 3.7.
Since joining the Dodgers he has a 4.66 ERA, 1.43 WHIP. He has a minus .8 WAR with LA, Career IRS is 34%. He has 6 blown saves in 7 opportunities with the Dodgers.
He is just not consistent but overall has a bad record both as a starter and a reliever. It’s not that he doesn’t have the stuff – he just doesn’t get enough outs with it.
The biggest question tonight will be if Peters can put a ball in play? Or even foul one off!
Just watched 93 and down the middle. And wiff. I am pulling for the kid , but I keep asking myself ,how is he missing that?
Question answered
Anything with velocity up in the zone he’s not going to hit.
First time going back to back for Kelly last night and it showed. He looked great the first night. Terrible last night.
How in the world can peters be on the roster much less in the lineup? This is typical Roberts leave a hot hitter on the bench while playing a guy who shouldn’t be in mlb. Especially in a series against the giants.
They are doing the guy a disservice by playing him. This cannot help his psyche. I’m sorry I don’t blame him I blame this is on AF and doc. I don’t know what they see in him. In a big series u just give the opponent an out. Oh well I guess he can’t hit into a dp.
He will be back at AAA as soon as McKinstry or Bellinger get activated. Both are playing for OKC tonight.
And Pollock.
A couple of thoughts:
1 – Bauer doesn’t have his best stuff. doesn’t have the heat but still gets guys out
2 – Pujols may be the slowest runner that I’ve ever seen
3 – What’s with the horrible defense on pop ups on the left side?
4 – Wood looks good but the Dodgers are missing a lot of center cut FB
All year long!
Bauer’s a warrior! Love the guy!
Ah Peters, you could tell by the sound he didn’t quite get it on the fat part. but hey, he hit the ball!
Jones looked good. I wonder if Bauer put in a word for picking him up.
I honestly had no idea we got Nate Jones
That crummy Dodger bullpen did it again!
Ha, I’ll always remember the red-haired stepson welcome Treinen got here when he first showed up..
Another one run game in our favor! Bauer is a warrior. I loved how he welcomed the boos while he walked off the field. Nate Jones, who knew? Solid bullpen piece turns in some lock down innings in a big game. I tip my cap to Andrew. Treinen shut the door and looks completely dominant. I love how CT3 is carrying the torch when JTs flame got week and Mookie’s still trying to find the matches. Good way to start the series and make the house guests sad.
Great win.
Bauer is great to watch.
Need Belinger and McKinstry back ASAP
Nate WHO ? Gutsy performance by Bauer. What a warrior.
Peters is so overmatched, Belli can´t get back fast enough.
Good start to the road trip.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!