Jesse Winker of the Cincinnati Reds will be 28 in August. This is his 5th year in MLB and while he has been up and down the first four years, this year it just clicked! As we speak, he is hitting .397 with a .443 OB% and a 1.183 OPS. That’s Mike Trout, Babe Ruth, Micky Mantle territory. However, he has not always hit like that and if you took any small sampling from any of his seasons, you would possibly conclude that he was Luke Raley, Matt Beaty, Edwin Rios, Zach McKinstry, Sheldon Neuse, or DJ Peters (OK… maybe not Peters).
Winker has 73 AB’s this year, so that means he is the next Mike Trout? Does that mean that Raley, Beaty, Rios, and others are chopped liver? Only a moron would think either case was a possibility, so most of this small sampling means nothing. However, if Jesse is still hitting like this in a couple of months, the NL may have a new MVP. On the other hand, he could do what his teammate, Nick Castellanos did last year: The first month of the season Casty hit .375 with a ..464 OB% and 1.214 OPS. However, he ended the season hitting .225! Casty is back to his old tricks again hitting .322/.366 OB% and 1.021 OPS. Which player is he?
Right now, Justin Turner is the only Dodger hitting with regularity. Even Mookie Betts is a shell of himself. The problem is that they have not hit! Oh, they can get on base. In fact, the Dodgers currently lead all of MLB in OB% with .344! That is really good, but sooner or later, you have to hit to get the runners across the plate and they are not getting that job done. This, in turn, puts pressure on the pitchers who may try and make the “perfect pitch” every time, which leads to never making the perfect pitch. This too will change – some hitter will breakout big time and then the team will follow… if we all live long enough!
If you all want to lose your minds… have at it! I will not participate in the insanity! This is simply a prolonged slump and everything the Dodgers do right about now is wrong! It has not happened for a couple of years, but it’s baseball where anything can (and will) happen. They somehow managed to score 5 runs on just 4 hits. Buehler struck out 10 and only walked one but gave up 5 runs. Go figure! They’re 2-7 in their last nine games and are 9-8 on the season against teams that aren’t the last-place Rockies.
Sean Doolittle got his first save last night after blowing his first opportunity. HIs ERA sits at 4.66. He would fit right in with this bunch! With Gonsolin, Price, and Knebel out for extended time, the bullpen is thin and while he may not inspire confidence, Joe Kelly will likely be back in the next couple of days. All we can do is hope! Victor Gonzalez and Mitch White are also on the IL – it was not disclosed if their injuries were real or imagined.
It sounds like Bellinger is getting closer. The pain in his leg has subsided and he is taking BP every day. It will be a big shot in the arm when he returns. Let’s hope it is soon. I think this losing streak could last a little longer. Sometimes when you are down, it’s hard to get up.
I tried my part. I play beat the streak on mlb.com and rarely do I get above a 5 game streak. So today I picked Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos hoping my usual picks do what they normally do and don’t get a hit.
White and Gonzalez are on the COVID IL afterwards getting their shots. Should be black in a couple of days.
is the Covid IL not a full 10 days then?
No..some have returned in a couple of days.
Blue Wins Matter
NL West has been an abomination , the past decade. LA walking away with the division , year after year, spoiling the fanbase.
Finally, some competition in ’21.
Nine in a row, is not ‘in the bank’.
I love the fact that the Giants are tied with the Dodgers now. An all-California rivalry is a lot of fun, and can test the Dodgers’ mettle.
Not ready to give up on Rios, but the early troubles leave me thinking that a more proven bat is the answer… especially one with versatility in the field.
Who might be available in addition to Kris Bryant?
I have seen worse slumps from the team. But I look at it this way. They are not playing with the team they expected to have out there. They will be fine.
Just for a little perspective, let’s remember the 2017 slump where they lost 16 of 18. Now that’s a world-class slump. This present slump is like fly s*** in a sea of pepper.
I’m optimistic.
If we flip Seager and Kershaw for some prospects I have every confidence this team can be competitive in a couple of years. It could be worse. At least the Dodgers aren’t the Yankees.
Max Muncy with two more walks now has a 25% walk percentage. Looking back through 2010, no player has had a BB% higher than 20%, and the three who have pulled it off have been Trout, Votto and Bautista. The difference is those guys made contact and hit for power and average. Muncy goes up to the plate almost looking to draw a walk. He is the anti-Seager, who is goes up first ball swinging and looking for something to drive. If that’s the kind of player Muncy is going to start being put him in the leadoff spot, because when you’re batting cleanup, although getting on base is good, at some point a you have to be able to drive in runs and hit for power. At first, seeing him adapt to the pitcher’s strategy and lay off pitches was interesting to watch. Now just seeing him walk all the time is kind of boring.
NYM now with the best FIP at 2.71. The Dodgers are 3rd. They should be getting Syndergard back sometime midseason. Maybe the Mets will start to hit at some point. I think Chris Sale has started throwing and the Bosox should have him sometime this year.
Muncy walking is a good thing and a bad thing. His job is to drive in runs. Cannot drive in many runs with a walk. He is becoming less aggressive. Last night they threw one down the middle and he took it. Then he struck out on a pitch down the middle. He looks like he is not ready to swing because of all the balls he gets. Right now I would move him back to the number 6 hitter and move Smith and Taylor up.
In the immortal words of the ol professor, can anyone here play this game??? Well the time to show they can is this afternoon with Bauer on the bump. Starting a road trip with a 4 game losing streak is not good karma or mojo…
Kershaw today. Bauer tomorrow in Milwaukee.
My bad, UR right
One other thing. Can someone teach the umpires the strike zone???? There have been some really awful calls over the last week or so….actually all year so far.
It amazes me that Angel Hernandez still has a job. He has to be in the Hall of Fame of horrible umpires. His strike zone is so terribly inconsistent .
And he also has one of the shortest fuses of any umpire
That’s because he knows he sucks and is insecure about it.
Not only that, but, in a move that is entirely consistent with our current age of cultivating grievance for advantage, he sued baseball for racial discrimination – because officially acknowledging he sucks is racist.
I’m going to go against the grain here about electronic strike zones. instead of that, MLB just needs to consistently promote the umpires throughout MiLB and elsewhere who consistently show they are excellent at calling balls and strikes. I think players can accept mistakes every know and then if they understand the umps are generally excellent. The problem is the union keeps Joe West and Hernandez around.
With Statcast, there is no secret who calls a good game. You immediately know the balls that got called as strikes and the strikes that get called balls. You can rate the umps who are good or bad. Promote the good ones and demote the bad ones. It will create a culture of excellence. With a robo ump, now fat Joe West will draw a paycheck just signaling what a robo ump says.
could not agree more. WORST ball & strike calling i have ever seen. i am all in on robo-umps. the naysayers says it takes away from the game as the “art” of framing pitches and such goes away. i say bullspit. umps SHOULD NOT be part of determining the game, period exclamation point end of conversation. if they install robo-umps both pitchers and hitters will adjust. pitchers will learn they need to throw STRIKES and batters will learn EXACTLY what the actual strike zone is. mlb wants to see more offense? robo-umps will provide that without all the bullspit tinkering being done these days. i would also like to see the hard shift made illegal and a rule that you need 2 guys on both sides of 2nd base & that they need to be on the actual infield. you know, they way baseball was intended to be played.
cheers
I was thinking how the Dodgers are just snakebite right now. I bring up this site and low and behold, Mark’s title and snake picture pops up.
Very little is working right now. Especially for Doc. He might want to rethink his propensity to pull starting pitchers mid-inning for a match up reliever. The pen is struggling and a starter, even at 95 pitches, is better than the replacement.
Whenever possible, don’t pitch to Winker right now.
Joey Votto looks like he shaves with a chainsaw.
2 ushers scramble to avoid a double down the left field line. Joe Davis says “it’s like a red shell on a Mario card” huh? All the talking about season wins, rosters and playoffs needs to end while we get on track and healthy.. Make it simple. Win one game at a time.
Sonny Gray starts for the Reds today and has a 7.88 ERA which probably means he will throw a perfect game.
So, are they gonna phone it in today with a day game after the night game lineup? Kershaw usually gets up to stop a losing a streak. He might have to go all the way today. I sure hope to see 93 on the gun early a dirty slider and an air bending curve.
Corey and Mookie are pressing a bit. 0-8 combined. I guess 1 K between them is a bright side?
Smith and Beaty looked hot last night, so they must be on the bench today.
I like to pull for the young players trying to find a spot, but that throw home by Raley as Farmer was rounding third was monumentally uninspiring minor league mediocrity . HUGE DISAPPOINTMENT.
I’ve not been impressed with Raley’s arm at all. My point from yesterday: If you’re a potential MLB player on the bubble, at least have an arm or make accurate throws.
plus you had that bloop single that beatty should have been easily able to read. and he stops and lets it bounce once. our D is quite sub-par right now.
The two teams I follow and pull for are the dodgers and the reds. The difference being that I pull for the dodgers to win the world series, I pull for the reds make .500. We expect a lot of the dodgers don’t we?
The bad news is that the Dodgers suck… like really suck! The good news is that it is happening at the beginning of the season and not at the end like it has been the last few years (sans 2020 when they essentially peaked in the first third of a normal season).
B & P was correct up above. The two best hitters last night, Smith and Beaty are both riding the bench today.
Seager rests and Lux starts at short. Raley in right instead of Beaty because……………………………………….who the hell knows why?
Well, Barnes going to catch Kershaw every time and we don’t care who did what last night. It’s all about today!
The “deciders” need to work that in their numbers/analytics somehow, as in: which players in the last several games are red hot, hot , warm , cold, and ice cold.
Runner in scoring position, no outs, and no runs. Fly out, pop up, K. Don’t even move the runner up.
With Barnes catching teams are going to run. The pitchers have to hold the runners close, but Barnes does not have a good arm. Smith has a much better arm. If this continues, Kershaw may want to pitch to Smith. I hate designated catchers anyway. I was a catcher and it would piss me off if a pitcher did not want to pitch to me.
Where would we be if Turner had signed elsewhere? Right now I can’t imagine what 3rd would look like without JT. AF must have known and he made a great move signing him.
Turner came by way of Colletti.
Why is Raley getting sooooooooo many at bats/starts? I’ve been thinking about that a lot.
Since Muncy is a walk machine this year why not have him drawing walks in front of the pitcher so the pitcher can bunt him over.
Just a thought.
When healthy:
Betts
Seager
Turner
Bellinger
Smith
McKinstry
Taylor
Muncy
Pitcher
By the way I would have used Gonzalez for both the eighth and ninth inning since it was a close 2-0 game at the time.
Gonzalez is good against both sides of the plate. So is Gonsolin but he is on the IL.
Now that it’s a blowout game I would use my blowout game pitchers such as Nelson Santana Cleavinger for the 9th inning.
Nelson is on the IL. Santana pitched yesterday, so it is Cleavinger… and then Santana.
Being a fan of the reds, starting in the 6th inning you are always on the edge of your seat waiting for the wheels to come off.
We are in trouble now, we have gone to the BP.
yeah, bad umping again. the hbp was swung through on.
Offense wakes up for an inning. 6 runs wow.
Cleavinger could be interesting. I can see why Andrew wanted to roll the dice on him. There is definitely some promise there. Quite the play he made on that liner back to him. And he really didn’t want to come out of the game even after getting hit on his pitching arm. I am hereby forming the Garrett Cleavinger Fan Club……………….to be disbanded after his next poor performance. But in the meanwhile, there might be something there.
Cleavinger reminds me of Cingrani. I was surprised when they sent him down after his first appearance. I would like to see more of him.
Clayton really came through today to end a horrible homestand on a high note.
Brewers, Cubs and Angels coming up. We should be firing on all cylinders by the time we land in Anaheim (Aka other Los Angeles)? New Los Angeles? Los Angeles South?
Cingrani certainly had his moments here. Too bad he couldn’t stay healthy.
Stuff from around:
CW (Montana):
You are BA’s Mr Dodger. Outman or Vogel to have a better career?
Kyle Glaser: It’s closer than you might think. Both are really athletic outfielders with swing questions. This might seem like a cop-out, but I want to wait and see what Vogel’s swing adjustments look like this year before answering. He should be out in Rancho Cucamonga at some point this year. Let’s circle back on this in a few months.
Do the Dodgers still see Michael Grove as a SP or will he begin transitioning to becoming a reliever?
Kyle Glaser: They’re starting to view him as a more of a potential long man, simply because he hasn’t shown he can maintain anything for more than 2-4 innings at a time. This year will be big for him to prove he can.
Who’s LAD’s second baseman in 2023, Gavin Lux or Michael Busch?
Kyle Glaser: Lux. I think Busch is either their DH (because I expect the DH to be universal beginning in 2022) or more likely they push Muncy to DH and Busch is their everyday 1B. He’s gotten better at 2B and, as one veteran evaluator put it “it’s not a no”, but Lux at 2B and Busch/Muncy at 1B/DH is going to be a much better defensive alignment for the Dodgers.
Old Friend Ross Stripling on pitching:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ross-stripling-talks-curveballs/
Fan Graphs on the Dodgers-Padres
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/decades-in-the-making-the-dodgers-padres-rivalry-has-arrived/
Jake Mailhot on Dustin May
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dustin-may-has-finally-discovered-his-strikeouts/
Keith Law on an old friend:
ivy: Do you see Dean Kremer as having the potential to become, say, a #3 starter? He can look terrific for several innings, seems to have problems sustaining his performance for more than a few innings. How fixable is that sort of problem?
Keith Law: The delivery isn’t great, but I think he can be a back-end guy, a 4 or a 5 who eats innings but is worse than league-average at run prevention.
Baseball America
Mock Draft: https://t.co/WW30io8ozD?amp=1
BA’s newest mock gives the Dodgers prep righty Chase Petty, who would immediately rival guys like Bobby Miller, Clayton Beeter, and Gerardo Carrillo for the most pure arm talent in the Dodgers’ system.
MLB Pipieline
Mock Draft: https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-mlb-draft-2021?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
First legit connection of the draft season: “The Dodgers have definitely been scouting [Peyton] Stovall.”
Transaction Wire
The Dodgers trade Jimmy Titus & Albert Suarez to the Mets for cash considerations last week.
Titus was a 23rd rounder from 2019, and had only played for Ogden in his pro debut. Suarez signed for $300k in the 2016-17 international signing period, and played his age 18-19 years in the AZL.
Interesting article on how the Padres are employing shifting:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/no-team-is-shifting-like-the-padres/
It seems to me that the Dodgers are in love with the walk. By being ultra patient your obp looks good, but it hurts your batting average and your run production. Two and three run walks are very rare. Also, you wind up with a lot of two strike counts where one swing and miss puts you on the bench. I like Seager’s approach.
Love that photo of Ali (then Clay) standing over Liston.
Iconic.
What’s the most iconic Dodgers photo? Easy to point to video–Gibson’s HR, Jackie stealing home….Iconic audio from Vin and Tommy….
Oh dear.
Just remembered one: Marichal getting ready to club Roseboro.