Disclaimer: What we are seeing is through the microcosm of Spring Training. Current performance is not evidence of future prospects. It is a small sampling. Some of it is skill and some of it is luck. Take it all with a grain of salt.
The Position Players
It was great to see Gavin Lux get two hits in three at-bats. If anything, all he needs is confidence and he should have gotten a big shot of it yesterday. Of course, they were playing the Rockies who would likely be beaten resoundingly by the Little Sisters of the Poor. So there is that! Life would be wonderful for the Dodgers if Gavin Lux could seize the day and take the second-base spot. He’s off to a nice start.
That leaves CT3 and Zach McKinstry as the R – L Swiss Army Knives. Austin Barnes is the backup catcher, but what happens after that? Sunday, we saw Matt Davidson, Edwin Rios and Sheldon Neuse raise some eyebrows. Yesterday we saw DJ Peters look like he is a force to be reckoned with, in the field, with the bat and on the bases. Luke Raley continues to look solid as does Matt Beaty, but “solid” won’t do it.
At most, there are three roster spots to be decided, maybe only two. The Top 11 are as follows:
- Will Smith
- Austin Barnes
- Max Muncy
- Gavin Lux
- Corey Seager
- Justin Turner
- AJ Pollock
- Cody Bellinger
- Mookie Betts
- Chris Taylor
- Zach McKinstry
Here are the candidates for the last two spots (I am putting them in order of what I think is their probability of making the team) :
- Edwin Rios – In
- DJ Peters – In
- Matt Davidson – In
- Sheldon Neuse – AAA
- Matt Beaty – AAA
- Luke Raley – AAA
- Zach Reks – AAA
That’s what I think TODAY. It could change tomorrow. I think I might keep a daily record of where they rank. Rios and Peters have one thing that the others do not – “Light Tower Power.” You can’t teach Power. Rios can play 1B, 3B, and maybe LF. Peters can play all three outfield positions, and Davidson can pitch!
The Pitchers
When the hitters get 14 hits an score 10 runs, it is going to be a good day. When pitchers give up just two hits, it is likely going to be a very good day. Add the two together and it is a recipe for disaster for the team you are playing!
What is there to say? Trevor Bauer looked as advertised. Tony Gonsolin and Kenley Jansen looked to be in midseason form and Treinen and V-Gone finished the game. There were very few hard-hit balls. If I were the Rockies, I would be deflated!
Dodgers News
- Who said Omar Estevez had no power? Lots of people… including me. Then he hits a nice opposite-field double off the wall. Who knew?
- Trevor Bauer said he is work on lots of stuff to get better. You have to love that attitude.
- Striker Buehler starts tonight at 6:05 PST against the beloved Giants.
- Boy, is this team loaded! What an embarrassment of riches. I am so ashamed… NOT!
- There could be a trade early in the season, to move some older prospects for younger prospects. I mean guys like Raley, Reks, Beaty, et al. Sorta’ like trading Ross Stripling. Yes, you get prospects back, but you also give a guy an opportunity he was not going to have in LA.
Most impressive pitcher yesterday? Jansen without a doubt. 9 pitch inning, all strikes. He looked like Jansen of a couple of years ago. Bauer got out of the only jam he was in. 18 pitches in the first, only 10 in the second. Peters is 1.000 so far with 2 walks and an impressive diving catch. I would not be afraid of using him in CF, and having Belli at first sometimes. I am pretty much the only one who feels this way, but I like excellent fielding first basemen, and the Dodgers have had a few. Hodges, Parker, even Garvey was solid over there. I think Rios is a lock to make the team.
Loney and A Gone were great fielders as well
But I agree with you that a great fielding 1b is hugely underrated. Hopefully Muncy continues to improve his D
Loney never won a gold glove and his career fielding avg was .992. Hodges and Parker were at .996 with Gil getting 3 gold gloves, and Wes 6. Garvey had a .994 FA and 4 gold gloves. Gonzalez had a .995 with 4 gold gloves.
Riches galore. Never seen anything like it.
Good song and video. Been to every one of those sites in the Antelope Valley.
Yes, good second day. The Dodgers are going to win a few ST games, because the farm hands are not in camp and will not play the last 3 innings.
The Dodgers are good about trading players who are blocked to give them a chance to play Major League Baseball. The Dodgers are good at scouting other teams and know who they want in a trade.
35% of Americans can name every member of the Simpson’s family but only 2% know who Thurgood Marshall is.
My O/U is 105 wins.
I got nothing else.
105 is an impressive number for a prediction, but it’s spring, so I’ll take the over.
Just remember Badger half the country has below average intelligence.
Below median intelligence.
Nobody told me we’d be speaking about statistics today!
The other half is 90% mental.
And the other half thinks they’re a lot smarter than they really are!
Former Supreme Court Justice. My nephew went to UCSD and the part of the campus he was at was named for Marshall.
Heck everyone knows that Thurgood Marshall was the love interest of both Marge’s sisters on the Simpsons, duh!
You’re last comment gets to one of the parts of the current Dodger culture. The organization appears to actually take into account what’s best for the player, not just the team. It’s a win-win situation.
DJ Peters is the players I’m most pulling for this spring. Would love to see him make the team. If he can keep his strikeouts at a manageable level against MLB pitching, he should be around for a long time.
Boy, is he big.
If Davidson can give us some mop up duty out of the pen it sure would be nice to have his bat on the bench. And Rios can surely learn to play some LF and give Pollock some occasional time off against righties. That leaves one spot open on the bench. Recks, Raley, Beaty, Neuse or Peters. Gonna be a battle!
Rios is probably a lock. Davidson is limited by his lack of defensive ability and positional flexibility. I hadn’t considered Peters, and I think the team needs a reserve besides Taylor who can play good defense in CF and RF , but with light tower power comes a big holes in his swing. He’s always been low AVG / high strike out machine. I like Neuse as a right handed bat with defensive versatility, but he doesn’t really play the outfield.
If the Dodgers have any chink in the armor, it’s depth in the outfield. If I was to bet on that final roster spot I’d probably say the Dodgers stick with who they know in Beaty.
I’m not sure how Rios went from the starting 3rd baseman before JT signed to on the bubble for the 26 man roster. To me he’s an absolute lock to split time with JT. To me, there’s 1 spot available and I hope its Peters
It looked like Bauer wanted to see his fastball in his first inning and breaking ball in his 2nd. He might not be satisfied with his stuff but I’m I’m telling ya, his curveball might be the best I’ve seen. It’s tight and late and just buckles guys. I guess he throws two versions of his curveballs, one he takes a little off. I watched him when I worked at Goodyear a few years ago and I swear that pitch is much better now.
I noticed that Trevor Bauer has a very smooth leg kick in his delivery. How important is that power foot push to a successful delivery for a pitcher and does an excessive one slow down the chances of catching a base stealer? I, in no way, am saying Bauer’s foot push is excessive. He looks great. But, some pitchers have a very pronounced foot kick. Just asking.
DBM – Okay, you asked for it. Not to be overly technical but your question is right up my alley so here goes:
Many pitchers and pitching coaches don’t subscribe at all to pushing off the rubber with that post (back) leg. Lots of old school guys still talk about gaining momentum to the plate with a “push” and some pitchers still stress it; but not many. I don’t know Bauer’s philisophy on it. Sometimes that “push” is a byproduct of other things and not an emphasis. It just happens if you do other things right.
Most folks now subscribe to the “stand tall and fall” method. From the balance point a pitcher attains with the front foot lifted and the back foot on the rubber, the pitcher “falls” to front foot strike without “pushing” off with the back leg. A pitchers power comes from keeping the hips and shoulders closed as long as possible to front foot strike. The hips then fire open first at foot strike, followed by the shoulders and finally arm and hand. It’s just like a hitter exploding those hips first and then creating torque and bat speed with the torso. Lazy hips and lazy trunk, don’t cut it. It’s rotational energy at foot strike that creates arm speed and velocity. Nothing violent happens until front foot strike. Balance, posture and alignment all are in preparation to foot strike, when the pitcher gets busy.
The push method can cause pitchers to pitch shorter (6’6″ becomes 6″0) by dropping on the back leg. It can cause “drifting” ie poor balance that impede firing the hips and torso. Analytics have show the same force on the landing foot whether the pitcher “falls” or “pushes” to foot strike.
Kershaw does the coolest thing thing to not drift toward home and stay behind the pitch. I used to call it “lead knee first”. From that balance position over the rubber, the stride leg knee need to start down to the ground before it it (and the body) start forward to the plate. CK drops that lead foot nearly to the ground before anything starts forward. He then strides or “falls” to foot strike. I don’t think he ever thinks about “pushing off” with his post foot. Kershaw just eccentuates that move that all good pitchers do.
Regarding holding runners, a pitcher needs to vary what he does so he doesn’t get into a predictable pattern. That includes varying moves, length of pause, and how long that front foot is in the air to foot strike. The slide step is designed to speed this up. A high knee lift and a long body gives the runner a big jump. Many closers don’t care. They are there to get the batter out.
Sorry for maybe being to technical but this is my best answer. Please “bear” with me.
Thanks so much, Phil, for your explanation. I understood most of it especially can see how balance is important with the hips and shoulders closed creating torque or a power push. Kershaw has it right for him. You should be a Dodger pitching instructor if you are not already.
A lot of good drop and drive pitchers over the years – Seaver, Koufax, etc. Pretty crazy – I guess they were all wrong.
Dodgerrick, of course Seaver, Koufax and that generation weren’t all wrong. Just like everything, coaching and instruction changes with time. With all the new technology, the game is being taught differently. Is it better? That’s up for you to judge. But you don’t need to be Sherlock Holmes to see that Henry Aaron and Willie Mays didn’t hit like Barry Bonds and Mookie Betts. Koufax’s and Bob Feller had that Juan Marichal long leg kick that takes superior leg strength and balance to repeat. A lot can go wrong and make a normal human being inconsistent. That’s why it isn’t taught anymore.
To quote Willie Nelson, “he ain’t wrong, he’s just different”………
Well, Koufax was the best pitcher that I ever saw and Mays the best position player so maybe they weren’t wrong in the 50’s – 70’s?
Babe Ruth was maybe the best player of all time and wasn’t on an off-season conditioning program and stayed up half the night drinking before games. Maybe modern players should do that, too, because it worked for the Babe, therefore it must be sound practice for modern players.
I consider you a pretty competent legal mind. I’m surprised you’d make that argument.
Re: Thurgood Marshall – not too many people are Supreme Court watchers and those who are watch the Court as it is currently comprised as part of their political viewpoint. I recommend The Nine by Jeffrey Toobin for a good history of recent courts – by the way, Marshall doesn’t come off too well in this book.
If I had my way, no one would graduate from high school without taking a case in basic constitutional law. People need to know what that great document says and something of the history of constitutional jurisprudence to understand how we got to where we are.
In general, people know far more about popular culture than about important things – it’s the American Way.
Civics for the win! Fully concur.
Those who enjoyed watching Greinke pitch when he was here will also enjoy Bauer. He doesn’t just get the signal from the catcher and throw the pitch. He works two or three pitches ahead and sets up the batter. He’s a real strategist out there on the mound and I really enjoy watching him practice his craft.
One difference between him and Zach, though, is he hates to hit and says he is really awful at it. Greinke, on the other hand, when asked a couple days ago if he had any goals remaining at this stage of his career answered that his only goals were to hit 10 homers and steal 10 bases before he was done. Here’s his answer.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1366467120738033667
Is Doc going to carry 12 or 13 position players? To me here are the position players I think are locks.
Smith
Barnes
Muncy
Lux
Seager
Turner
Betts
Belinger
Pollock
Rios
Taylor
That is 11 position players, that leaves 1 or 2 spots open for these guys:
Beaty
McKinstry
Neuse
Peters
Reks
Raley
Since Rios plays 1B and 3B and is a LHB, I think Beaty is a long shot to make the team.
Since Peters can play all outfield positions, I think Reks and Raley are long shots to make the team.
I think it’s really down to McKinstry, Neuse, Peters for the final 1 or 2 spots. And I hope Joe Kelly gets released so 2 of them could make the team. But I doubt that happens.
And this is an interesting tidbit. DJ has been working out at 1B.
https://twitter.com/thereal_dv/status/1366871349466046468?s=21
Kike is wearing # 5 for the Red Sox. watched his at bat today. Drew a walk and he is leading off and playing SS.
Go get ’em Kike! Not too likely he’ll spend much time at short this year considering they have Bogaerts but I hope he gets the second base job. Also, #5 suits him much better than #14.
And for those who care, Joc is wearing #24 with the Cubs.
I think the only way Peters makes the opening day roster is if Bellinger isn’t ready to play regularly. He needs to get off to a good start at AAA I think and if he does he will be called up to be our 4th outfielder. As an old 1Bman I agree that a good defensive player at first base helps the entire infield and pitching staff. I think Rios definitely is on the team.
Kike had a good game batting leadoff for the Bosox. He walked twice and hit a HR. Way to go Kike!
Today’s initial line up
1. Betts RF
2. Seager SS
3. Pollock LF
4. Barnes C
5. Rios 3B
6. Davidson 1B
7. Neuse DH
8. Burns 2B
9. Outman CF
Buehler P
Today pitchers
Walker Buehler
Dustin May
Alex Vesia
James Pazos
Enny Romero
Nick Robertson
A controversial question from me, sorry. I wonder if Smith, who I am a big fan of, is getting overlooked by the pitchers who seem to be making the decision on who to play. I think Barnes is a fine defensive catcher, and I understand the importance of being “in sync” with the battery. But if Bauer now states he wants to pitch to Barnes inclusively, where does it leave Will? How can he improve his skills and get to know the pitchers better if he does not catch them?
Been thinking about reports that there will be alternate sites for the first month with AAA not starting until May.
Biggest effect may be on pitchers, particularly May and Gonsolin. I originally thought May would start in AAA to remain stretched out for the first couple weeks. Gonsolin I thought would likely be on the taxi squad and starting game 6.
With no AAA in April, I would look for effectively a 6 man rotation with the other of Gonsolin/May in the BP.
Caveat that there are no SP injuries.
Also wondering about how this might effect NRI contracts with opt out dates if not on MLB roster.