The closer we get to Spring Training the more likely Justin Turner is not going to continue his Dodger career. It appears that the Salary Cap. ‘errr Luxury Tax is a real thing. Justin Turner had a great Dodger career, but without the DH and the presence of the salary cap, we need to prepare to move on. It sucks, but sometimes when you get lemons, you simply need to make some lemonade.
Justin Turner was a very key part of the Dodgers for several years. I almost said he was the “heart and soul” of the Dodgers, but it took a lot more than JT to be the “heart and soul.” Still, he was important. If he doesn’t come back, he will be missed… but life goes on and the Dodgers will survive. I have not written him out yet, but I am preparing for it. You should too! It’s almost like losing a loved one to death, but it’s all a part of it. Just remember the good times and prepare for what’s next.
What’s Next?
To start with, everything has to be on the table. The Dodgers have a very talented farm system that has delivered the past several years and needs to do so again. Let me run some ideas by you. Baseball America has Keibert Ruiz ranked as the Dodgers’ #1 prospect. He is now 22 and here’s what BA has to say about him:
“He hit his first speed bump in 2019 when an organizational catching logjam forced him back to Double-A, and he struggled to stay motivated. He looked re-energized after a promotion to Triple-A, but suffered a season-ending injury when a foul tip fractured his right pinkie finger. Ruiz rode out the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 at the Dodgers’ complex in Arizona, where he improved his physique and worked extensively with Dodgers hitting coach Brant Brown. Ruiz contracted Covid-19 and arrived late to summer camp, but he recovered to make his major league debut on Aug. 16 and homered in his first at-bat.“
So, it’s not unusual for a young kid to lose motivation at times and Kaybear evidently did, but he also evidently bounced back and improved his conditioning while working with Brant Brown. BA goes on to say this in the Scouting Report:
“The switch-hitting Ruiz has a preternatural ability to put the bat on the ball. He has elite hand-eye coordination, can manipulate the barrel to cover all parts of the strike zone and rarely swings and misses. Those traits have long given Ruiz the potential to be a plus hitter, but his quality of contact was often lacking. The Dodgers made adjustments in 2020 to get him more upright in his stance and keep his hands closer to his body, and the result was a more direct path that helped him stay inside the ball and produce consistently harder contact. Ruiz is much stronger batting lefthanded and shows average power from that side. His righthanded swing is visually similar but lacks strength and largely produces weak contact. Ruiz is an aggressive hitter who is still learning to pick out pitches he can drive rather than swinging at the first pitch near the strike zone. Once he improves his pitch selection, he has a chance to hit .280 or higher with double-digit home runs. Ruiz is a potentially above-average receiver who blocks well and received positive reviews from the big leaguers who threw to him at the alternate training site. His game-planning and game-calling still have room to grow. Ruiz’s arm strength is fringy to average, which was an issue in the majors when opponents went 3-for-3 on stolen bases against him in just 17 innings.“
So, he can evidently hit as a lefty and has to work on his throwing. We have no clue REALLY how much he progressed, grew and matured last year, but what if he shows up to Spring Training in great shape and rakes like he wants to job? Could Will Smith move to third-base (catching once a week) and let Barnes and Ruiz share the catching role?
Is Rios able to sustain what he has done? I doubt it, but maybe he can average a homerun every 13 AB’s rather than every 10 AB’s. Then you have to ask, what about Gavin Lux? Last year was a step back for him. Again, that is not unusual for a young player. Could be blow up in 2021? It’s certainly possible!
Could this be the opening day lineup?
- Betts RF
- Seager SS
- Smith 3B
- Muncy 1B
- Pollock LF
- Bellinger CF
- Lux 2B
- Ruiz C
CT3, Rios, McKinstry, and Barnes are subs. The Dodgers like versatility and Smith can switch back and forth to 3B and C. Rios can play 3B, 1B and maybe LF. CT3 becomes the Swiss Army Knife and McKinstry has a great chance. Matt Beaty, Zach Reks, Luke Raley, and Jacob Amaya are in competition for the last roster spot. I am rooting for Luke Raley. He might be my current favorite player. BA says this about him:
“Raley is incredibly strong with bulging biceps and plus-plus raw power. He frequently hit home runs on top of the parking garage beyond right field at Southern California’s Dedeaux Field during the alternate site and showed the ability to hit opposite-field home runs, too. His swing is oriented to his pull-side and he needs to improve his plate discipline, but he’s productive against both righties and lefties and has the bat speed to be an average hitter who taps into his power often enough. Raley is an average runner and plays hard defensively in left field. He’s occasionally too aggressive and collides with other fielders or the wall. He has above-average arm strength despite a funky throwing stroke. Raley’s power and sneaky athleticism have long made him a potential sleeper. He’s on the 40-man roster and is in position for his major league debut in 2021.”
While we are at it, BA is very high on Mike Busch and Kody Hoese. Here’s what they say:
Busch: “Busch is following the Max Muncy path as a masher who is playable at second base in short stints. He is poised to move quickly in 2021.”
Hoese: “Hoese looks like a future standout at his best but needs to be more consistent with his swing and throwing stroke. He’ll see the upper minors in 2021.”
Baseball America is very high on many of the Dodger’s prospects, like Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Jacob Amaya, and others. Some will fulfill their promise and some will not… and some we never anticipated will excel. I love watching this stuff!
But, maybe, just maybe a miracle will happen and Justin Turner will be back…
Lemonade with Bourbon please, over crushed ice. I’ll refrain from the speculation about Turner and his return, no one knows outside of AF, not worth speculating on. It is going to happen or it isn’t, that’s the only solid thing to count on.
Go City of Angels Baseball Team (and wear three masks for the sake of humanity, geez really? Why not wear 10 masks and rid the world of all disease, if you can’t breath, you die, if you are dead you don’t contract disease. I think that is the latest word from our brilliant leaders).
On a much more solid thing, Goff is gone (they weren’t going to go any higher with him), Stafford arrives (at least there is a chance to go higher with him) and you know McVay has a pup tent with the idea of showing off that he made the right call in ditching Goff.
I still think JT will be back. Right now seems to be prime time in the hot stove league. There’s still more to come!
I agree, though I like Mark’s speculation. I will say that I don’t see us being priced out of the JT market because we gave that $8m or whatever to Blake Treinen. We wouldn’t paint ourselves into a corner like that.
Maybe AF has moved on?
Possible.
Could be some union/management stuff going on too.
JT is a prominent voice.
I believe if he wanted to move on he would have already signed w someone. That tells me he is waiting to get it done w LA.
Speculating @ talks they could have had; ” we’ll give you 3 yrs if the DH happens, 2 yrs if not. Let’s wait and see which way it goes”. It’s just fun to speculate!
Luke Raley your favorite player? Well now I’ve heard it all 🙂
He might be my current favorite player.
Have you see him in person? Just curious.
That is not a “let’s be pigs” roster for 21! Not without JT. AF is not letting him go! Smith is a plus bat at catcher but not at third. He got exposed late last year with off speed stuff so he has some work to do to be a middle of the order bat.
If Bellinger doesn’t hit well enough to hit 4th in the lineup the Dodgers are in trouble. Putting him 6th indicates a lack of expectation.
It is now Betts team especially if Turner does not return.
Ruiz is a trade waiting to happen.
I am at the point where I really do not care if Turner comes back or not. I quit having favorites years ago. I just try to have fun watching the team play. It does not bother me a bit when players move on anymore. Nature of the beast. AF has been very quiet for weeks. Many have been saying it is the calm before the storm. And as for being pigs, I still think he was referring to Championships, not players. Rockies fans are deserting the ship because Arenado is gone, I have watched Dodger fans go nuts over the departure in free agency of a utility player, Kike, and a power hitting outfielder who cannot hit lefty’s, Joc. You would think we lost Babe Ruth. I liked both of them as people, but they both were very frustrating to watch. Kike was handed the 2nd base job twice, and could not hold it. As long as he keeps that pull the ball attack at the plate, he never will hit above .250. Joc had a little success in the Series against lefty’s, but over his career, they own him. Time to move on. Myself, I do not think there is anyway they move Will Smith to 3rd. He is rated as one of the top catchers in the National League. Moving him is a ridiculous idea. As for Ruiz, I agree he is a trade candidate. With the catching depth on the team, he has become a redundant piece. AF will no doubt load up on AAA type guys as non roster invitees. And a few minor league guys will be on that list too. I cannot remember right now the name of the former Padre infielder he signed, but he is a multi positional guy. 2 weeks until spring. Then the answers to the question, what have we got? Well, it will be known. 3 teams said to be in the running to sign Rich Hill.
Bear: Could you be thinking of Carlos Asuaje as the ex-Padre infielder?
Yep, that is the guy. Could not remember how to spell his name….Oldtimers disease.
Nah. You can’t be as old as me(78)
72, early stages!
If they stand pat, Smith getting reps at third wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. But at catcher he could have the best bat in baseball. It would help if they had 28 player rosters to carry 3 catchers. If we’re playing musical chairs, Barnes getting reps at 2nd base might be an interesting experiment.
I suspect there will be one more “major” move. If DH is approved, Ozuna for DH and Rios at third would have potential. Turner coming back still makes a boatload of sense. Friedman has made plenty of eye popping trades too.
On another note, health permitting for the big club, there’s a chance none of the top prospects graduate this year. Ruiz getting AAA should help his development, and not yanking Gray’s chain between AAA/MLB or rotation and pen makes sense. Everyone else has loads of potential, but haven’t necessarily shown results for a full season. Top 100 prospects lists could have half a dozen Dodgers this time next year.
This has been a difficult offseason for Dodger fans. Andrew Friedman is better at protecting secrets than most governments and probably all other sports franchises, and we just have no idea what’s going on.
We all know that Dodger management knows what the needs are. So we wait to see if Turner’s coming back, whether they replace him with an internal or an external solution, and what additional moves are made before the season starts.
We all know that this is mostly the same team that just won the World Series but also know that their competitors haven’t stood pat and we sense that the Dodgers shouldn’t stand pat either (although they essentially have to date) and so we become a bit apprehensive. And we fear that they may wait too long to acquire the players that they want (no more Scott Kazmirs please).
So we wait.
It is being reported that talks are heating up between NYM and Trevor Bauer. Some are speculating that the announcement as to whether the Mets are in or out could be within the next 24 hours. Just get it over with. NYM is the only team on Bauer. I would like to be a fly on the wall to hear what Lindor may have to say about Bauer. I know Lindor was peeved about the throw over the CF fence and showing up Tito. Maybe he apologized, but that is who he is. He generally acts before he thinks.
His agent is tweeting it’s now down to 2 teams. Everyone is assuming that the Dodgers are the other one, but I’m not so sure. Could still see the Jays, Phils, Braves or Padres surprising the world.
Whatever the reasons, the Dodgers so far are allowing other teams to catch up and maybe pass them. One more year of this, and they will be passed, by the Padres, Mets, maybe Braves and Cardinals. No sports exist in a one-team vacuum. If you don’t get better, and they do, then they may well be better than you are. Steve Cohen is going to keep spending. A. J. Preller is going to be in on every key player at the trade deadline or next offseason; he can’t pay for all of them, but he is determined to have the Padres be better than the Dodgers. I don’t know how much each ownership is going to be constrained by the luxury tax or whatever they now call it, but it does seem that the Dodgers are. So far, we have allowed our depth to almost completely dissipate. We have not seriously gone after one major talent, and all we have done is to rummage around the recycle bin to see if we can pick up someone who was good three or four years ago, and might somehow become good again.
Now, the Dodgers won the title last year, and we are all glad about that. This is particularly true, because it is possible that the ownership is going to rest on that for the next decade, maybe for another 32 seasons. I will also note that the Dodgers as of a week ago, were still the small favorite to win the pennant and title, but much of that is reputation. If we lose Turner, and do not somehow pick up another top hitter like Ozuna, or a major bullpen piece, most of whom are now gone, I don’t think that we are going to win the pennant, much less the championship. Rios is almost completely unproven. We have almost no platoon depth now. If Bellinger does not go back to hitting .290 or so, if he hits like last year, our lineup is thinner than it should be. And we still don’t have a closer. Our big hope, besides a major year by Bellinger, is that the starting staff is very strong, and the bullpen is good enough. But even with the staff, we have Kershaw, who got through last season, but is iffy to hold up for a longer one. Buehler, who is our best, but also has some physical issues. Urias, who has not shown yet that he has the stamina to start for an entire season. Price, who did not pitch last year, was injured and ineffective much of 2019. May, who has great potential, but may be a year or two away from consistently being good.
If Turner signs, then we could be back on top. He is a team leader, and still could probably hit .300 with 20 HRs in a situation. where he misses two games a week. Without Turner, and unless we get Ozuna or trade for a very good right-handed bat, I doubt whether we have enough to win the pennant. We will see, of course. But it is very disappointing that the Dodgers seem to think that they have done enough by winning last year’s title, and that since they have enough to compete in an expanded playoff situation, the fans must be satisfied with that, and watching other contenders improve themselves. We did not get a parade, and that is no one’s fault. But aren’t we at least owed seeing a serious effort to improve the team at least enough to stay above our major threats?
Thank you, William. People saying we can do without Turner are delusional. He’s part of our championship core. Loyalty to the guys who did it before. Ride or die. The rest is loser talk.
If mlb goes back to the single game wild card playoff opener then that could be the best game in wild card history. Dodgers. Pads, Mets and Braves. Pressure is on to win your division!
I think AF and JT have already come to terms but are withholding the announcement until ST starts in a few weeks. There will be two open spots then with Ferguson and Kahnle going on the DL.
What are the terms to their agreement? Who knows? I would guess 2 years + a dual option for a 3rd year.
I still think Turner will return to Dodgers. In my opinion, Friedman was waiting to make sure he could not get in on the Arenado deal, and discussing trades for Jose Ramirez, Eugenio Suarez, and Kris Bryant. He also was waiting for clarification on the DH to consider Ozuna and Nelson Cruz as well. I would be very surprised if he signs Bauer, especially if the rumors are correct and the Mets have offered 4 years at over $30 million per year.
It is also possible the Dodgers and Turner have reached a tentative agreement and they are waiting until next week to announce the deal to avoid making a 40 man roster move.
If the Dodgers are even considering Bauer, they are willing to exceed the CBT, so that gives them room to re-sign Turner, and possibly another free agent. The Dodgers could get Turner, Ozuna, and Rich Hill for the price of Bauer.
I’d love to have Rich Hill back again but he has already indicated that he wants to stay in the Northeast if possible. He lives in Massachusetts. Also NO to Bauer. We don’t need him nor his attitude.
I also believe JT returning is critical. The lack of certainty regarding the universal DH has likely caused a lot of problems for NL GMs. Somebody like Ozuna has en entirely different value depending on if he is or isn’t stinking up LF between ABs. I can image AF has been trying to balance the DH issue with running up against the “cap” space available. JT bring a lot of intangibles. JT/Rios could be very productive.
I don’t think we will see Smith at 3B. Even if JT doesn’t return. In that event I think AF will pull a trick out of his hat to fill a role at 3b.
I’m not as much a fan of Raley as you are Mark. That said, it has been 3 years since I’ve seen him play. 2020 has made typical wild speculation even more wild, given that there were no minor league games to watch and no stats to analyze. Matt Beaty, Zach Reks, Luke Raley, and Jacob Amaya will all get a shot in ST. I think Amaya is more likely a late season call up. But you left out DJ Peters. I could see him pass up Reks and Raley with a good ST. He strikes out a ton, but he has a much higher ceiling and is a much better defender than either. (and yes, I am bias). But hey, what do any of us really know? 1 year in the minors can make or break a prospect. And we lost 2020 entirely. Who knows where any of these guys stand right now both in terms of progression and the organisation’s view of them. I do know that the players did not like playing at USC. Same scrimmages every week. They found it boring and somewhat frustrating. I hope that didn’t have a negative impact any anybody’s development.
I know everybody wants AF to make a blockbuster move. But that has never been his style. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see a trade like the three way that sent Dee Gordon to Florida. Which, in hindsight, was brilliant. It filled needs and added even more depth in the minors. At the time it didn’t seem like a significant trade. I know my son hated it. Gordon was one of his favorite Dodgers. But Kendrick was an upgrade over Gordon (in my opinion) and we got Kike and Barnes for years.
If JT doesn’t sign, and I agree it doesn’t look promising, I wouldn’t be surprised if AF packages Ruiz and a few chips for a decent 3B and some prospects to reload the system. Knowing AF it will probably involve 14 teams. But I see that kind of move far more likely than signing somebody like Ozuna. It would be surprising if AF did nothing. I hope the last move is to sign JT. If not, I certainly hope he has another up his sleeve.
Maybe Bryant will play third and the Cubs get Price and Rios.
Bauer signs with the Mets
I’ve now seen in two places that the Mets offer to Bauer is 3 years, $93MM with $37MM in the first year and an opt out after year one.
How about it folks? Would you match that offer if that’s what it would take to get Bauer?
I’ll start the voting – No thanks. I think AF could spend that money more wisely on other positions, assuming he was going to spend it in the first place.
Never mind. Nightengale says Bauer and the Mets have a deal.
And Mark Feinsand says that they don’t have a deal yet.
I guess we’d better wait for Rosenthal or Joel Sherman or Heyman or Passan.
Latest On Mets, Trevor Bauer
By Connor Byrne | February 4, 2021 at 6:25pm CDT
While Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Mets have reached an agreement with right-hander Trevor Bauer, the top free agent on the board, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com offers different information, tweeting that the two sides do not have a deal yet. Indeed, agent Rachel Luba suggested on Twitter that there is not a contract in place.
The Dodgers are not going to match what the Mets offered. They were not going to come close. I am not convinced that the Dodgers were ever in on the Bauer train. I would not be surprised that Rachel Luba floated two teams had interest and let every one believe the Dodgers were interested. Just get it over with and sign with the only team that was ever going to sign him.
Mets are bidding against themselves.
We’re out.
The Dodgers could easily clear space for Justin Turner to return.
If they found the right team (and I believe they could trade Joe Kelly and CT3 for a low-level prospect. Toronto might be the team. Worst case scenario: The Dodgers would have to throw in a Top 10 prospect. That would clear $18 million for JT. Would the Dodgers be better with JT and without Kelly (forget him) and Chris Taylor? I am not certain.
I’m sitting out 2021 if we trade Taylor. I’m serious.
The Dodgers may or might not sign JT, but they are not trading CT3.
Someone asked earlier if I had seen Raley in person. Twice. In the Mid West League and at RC. I have seen video of him since and I believe he has gotten much better.
I’m becoming a believer. I saw the highlight reel. Bigtime power and good plate discipline. Classic late bloomer. Question might be defense.
Robert Murray (MLB Insider, Fansided) reporting that the Brewers are still in on JT, even after signing Wong.
In a move that makes absolutely no sense, the Angels are making a trade with St. Louis for Dexter Fowler for PTBNL. Not that Fowler was anything special, but the Cardinals OF was woefully thin to begin with, and it just got more so. What are the Angels going to do with Fowler. They need pitching, and they do not need Fowler’s contract.
Forget it Jeff, it’s Saigontown.
Don’t forget that the Dodgers have Nick Shumpert!
Shumpert Shumpert