CT3 – The Dodgers Could do a Whole Lot Worse

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1. Wow Mark! That was an absolute brain freeze trying to take in that trade proposal! It would take a haul of prospects to get those four players away from the Reds. But then to dump Pollock and Kelly’s salaries on top of that? Maybe 4-5 top prospects along with Gonsolin and Rios. AF has never traded his top prospect so I’d be surprised to see Lux traded. Based on his minor league history he could be a multiple all star second baseman. And controllable for years to come. You’re right on about a Taylor. It’s guys like him and Muncy putting up big numbers but without the big salaries that is a big advantage for the Dodgers over so many other clubs. We need to come up with some statistic WAR or OPS compared to salary that would show big advantage for Dodgers.

2. Lux is 23 throughout 2021 and Rios is 27 throughout 2021. Comparing stats isn’t exactly apples to apples.

3. Your trade proposals would completely shake up this team. Why do that ?
   Dodgers do not need Votto and they do not need Castillo. Suarez is a different story.
   I would like to get him for some prospects. Would fill two holes: 3b and a power righty bat in the middle of the lineup.
   And when did Bauer ask for 200 million ?
   I thought he is looking for a 1 year deal with a true contender. If I am AF I would pounce on that.
   CK, WB, TB, JU and DP would give the Dodgers the best rotation in baseball, maybe the history of baseball.
   Combined with our already superb lineup it Would make us heavy favorits to repeat.
   Yes, it probably means going over the luxury tax but winning another WS trophy in 2021 should be worth it.

   Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

   1. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2924690-report-trevor-bauer-seeking-5-to-6-year-deal-worth-36m-per-year

      Of course, since then he has denied it, but why would he take a 1-year deal when teams are offering multi-year deals?

      “No thank you. I don’t want 5-years at $35 million. I’ll just take one-year at $40 million!” Ha Ha!

      If you believe that, I have some swampland and AF will not jump to sign him to a 1-years deal. It would push them way over the LuxTax.

      I would suggest that any team in MLB would want Castillo!

4. Mark wouldn’t do that trade. What he would do is stir it up in here.

   Dodgers are currently favored to win the World Series again. Just keep everyone healthy and we will get by the Padres, who by the way are the third best team in the NL. Sign Turner and Hendriks and call it a year.

   Spirited thread yesterday. It’s a new day so I assume everyone will come out swinging. Even those that were benched late in the game.

   I get your point about age Bum. Experience being somewhat equal I think I might agree with you. I would also say some players have their best years early, like Billy Grabarkewitz and some peak late, like Barry Bonds…..

   1. I’ll bet you this is the first time that Billy G. has ever been compared to Barry B. no matter what the criteria.

      1. Ha.

         1. We cover it all, from A known cheater to grabarkewitZ.

5. In some ways, Taylor’s career has been impeded by his own versatility, being moved around by Roberts rather than being able to concentrate on one, or two defensive positions. His offense, while good (career 111 wRC+), has been hampered by taking too many strikes. When he swings at the first two pitches in an at bat his wRC+ is 145; first three pitches it increases to 200. But when he is behind in the count it ranges from 48 (0-2), 58 (1-2), and 72 (0-1). In high leverage situations – 132, so a middle of the order hitter who should be looking to drive the first good pitch would be ideal (perhaps 5th or 6th in the batting order). I think the Dodgers would be prudent to sign Taylor to an extension now, as he is the only ready now shortstop in the system if Seager should leave.

6. Since he had his breakout year in 2017, Taylor has put up negative defensive numbers. Offensively, his production dipped a lot in 18 and 19, and picked up again this last year primarily because he managed to get his walk rate up. I think his value will always be his defensively versatility. I would imagine Lux has a much higher offensive ceiling. Remember, you said the same thing about Kike last year. Sometimes role players are best suited being role players.

   My one concern with letting Kike walk is his clutch defense. I always think about how that plays during key moments of the playoffs. Kike had that ability to make a run saving defensive play when it mattered – like Mookie and Bellinger making those two spectacular catches that were difference makers. Remember Taylor made that key gaffe in game 6. I don’t think either Taylor or McKinstry have that same defensive acumen.

   I’m not sure that Votto has anything left in the tank at this point. He hasn’t had a decent year since 2018 and his defense is now really bad. He’s pretty much Albert Pujols at this point. Even if you can get the Reds to pick up part of his 22.5 mil AAV, that’s still a lot of money to pay a guy who won’t make the team better if he plays. … and that horrible contract runs through 23.

   In terms of a player who could replace JT, I think Saurez is the most attractive option because he’s young, about the same age as his potential Mookie/Seager/Bellinger cohort, and could thus form a piece of a longer term core, but prying him loose from the Reds is nearly impossible without some magic. Maybe AF can pull it off.

   I think the calculation that has to be made is whether a declining JT is still a better option than the possible replacements. I think you can make a case that he is. Let’s compare options:

   JT versus Suarez

   Suarez broke out in 2018 with a wRC+ of 135 and 34 HRs. In 2019, his wRC+ was about the same at 133 in spite of a HR total that spiked to 49. In both of these years his Barrel % and his HardHit % took a big jump. Actually, both of those metrics were better in 2020, but his overall offense took a dive to a wRC+ of 104, which is barely above average. His batting average for balls in play dropped all the way from .312 in 19 to .214 in 2020 in spite of the fact that he continued to make hard contact. That tells me that the defensive alignments have him figured out. He’s an overall solid defensive 3rd baseman.

   JT’s worst offensive year as a Dodger was 2016 when he had a wRC+ of 123. Aside from that he has had years of 158, 151 and a wRC+ of 154 as recently as 2018. These are elite offensive numbers in spite of the fact that he doesn’t hit a high HR total. Last year his wRC+ was 140, which is still a better offensive year than Suarez has ever had. That number is beginning to trend downward, however, and his defensive has shown a progressive decline.

   In his last full season in 2019, DJLM had a wRC+ of 136. He had an exceptional year in a shortened 2020, and he had a very good year with the Rockies in 2016, when he had a .348 BA and a wRC+ of 130. Aside from 2016, 2019 and 2020, he has been a below average offensive player for his career, in spite of playing half of his games at Coors Field. He’s attractive because his bat to ball skills are probably the best in baseball, he has a Gwynesque low strikeout rate, and he is an above average defensive player at multiple infield positions. He doesn’t walk much, which hurts his OBP, and his power isn’t very noteworthy, both of which hampers his overall run creation.

   His very good 2019 and his sparkling batting average 2020 has inflated his market value and he’s leveraging that for an asking price of an AAV of 25 mil. AF, former Wall Street guy that he is, never overpays for value. That, and losing a draft pick, AND it puts the Dodgers over the CBT. I seriously doubt DJ gets signed by the Dodgers. I wouldn’t sign him.

   From a pure performance improvement metric, if you don’t sign JT, the bold move that really improves the team is trading any prospect not named Keibert Ruiz, Lux or Josiah Gray for Lindor … ok maybe Ruiz can go if Will’s defense improves and Cartaya shows improvement. The problem with that is how you pay him plus all the homegrown talent that will need to be paid in the coming years, AND not going over the CBT for any extended time.

   There was a discussion the other day about the whether the Dodgers, having the assets that they do, can afford to go over the CBT. If the requirement is that the Dodgers be self-sustaining, then short term, like a year or two, probably yes, more than three straight years, probably not. People forget. It’s not the taxes paid on overages the first year, which are 20%, but the overage penalty on year three, which goes to 50%. If you don’t have a plan to get below the CBT threshold to reset the penalty, this could quickly become unsustainable.

   Personally, I much prefer the Andrew Friedman Dodgers that operate in some measure based on the concept of financial scarcity. It’s made the Dodgers run smarter. It’s produced more homegrown talent. It’s attracted overachievers and team players. The Dodgers are a better organization for having to operate within financial limits. No more teams of Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez.

   BTW – I find the constant posturing over one’s views of politics and social issues to be the least attractive thing about this site. I really wish he would stop – but he can’t.

   1. I’m not sure who the he is other than it isn’t me but whomever it is you refer to, he is not the person that has been putting the political ball on the tee and then standing back.

      Otherwise Patch, very well thought out post.

7. I like Taylor. Was not always that way. But he does have a penchant for coming up with big hits or plays. What i like the most about him is that he is a total team player. You have never heard Chris complaining about playing time or being moved all over the field. He just goes out there and does his job. Losing players is a normal thing now. Arbitration and free agency are the two main ways they get their paydays. Arbitration is no lock though as players beat the team a lot less than the team beats the players. I remember when they first moved Taylor to the outfield, and it wasn’t to a corner outfield spot, it was center. And that very first game he had to race back to the wall to make a catch. His bat woke up in 2017 and he was a huge part of that team. I expected some regression and there was some. But all in all his Dodger tenure has been fun to watch. I like Kike, think he is a defensive whiz, but he has not been without his foibles in the field as the video of Taylor’s throw shows. And his so called domination of lefty’s has not been as dominant the last couple of years. Losing Kike is the least of their worries. I think AF would trade a top prospect if it was for the right player. The thing is, Lux is not a prospect anymore. He is not even considered a rookie. He is an inexperienced major leaguer with a very small resume. I do not know which way AF goes. I doubt anyone does. If Turner is not resigned, and that is possible, then he has only a couple of options. Trade for a MLB ready third baseman, or give the job full time to Rios. Not much wiggle room there. I like the idea of getting another prominent starter. But I also understand they need at least one more stud in the pen. What happens over the next couple of months should clear the picture up a lot. No holidays for a while, so now they can go to work.

8. For a few years now I’ve looked at OPS and OPS+ as the stat with which organizational geeks use to fill a lineup. wRC+ has been there of course and I just thought if one was over 100, the other would be too. Anyone know if that’s true?

   From fangraphs:

   ● If you’re thinking about using OPS+, use wRC+ instead. wRC+ is based off of wOBA and is regarded as a more accurate depiction of a player’s offensive value. They will typically offer similar conclusions, but wRC+ is superior and no more difficult to interpret or find.

   It would seem so. I’m just not used to looking for it.

   I’ve always assumed Taylor is that extremely useful utility guy. A Zobrist. I’ve also felt he and Kiké played the same role. We drafted neither of them. I expect AF to find more like them in trades.

   1. I like wRC+ and other stats from Fangraphs, but I think Baseball Reference OPS+ is just as good as a stat with which to compare players. Baseball Reference tables includes so much info that it is more time consuming, but including league averages for batting average, on base, and slugging % is a terrific way to compare players.

   2. Here are the Dodger fangraph stats for 2019, the last full year played.
      https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/dodgers/stats?season=2019&minorFranchId=mlb

      1. Interesting read Bum. Thanks.

         I would think that after a short, but possibly emotionally grueling year, those numbers will reappear on the team stat sheet. Most of the lineup is still here, and still young enough to put up positive WAR numbers.

9. So, there is this:

   https://www.wthr.com/article/sports/ncaa/ncaab/march-madness/ncaa-hosting-entire-basketball-championship-in-indianapolis/531-20461164-a705-497f-83a6-46313362af46

   1. March? April?

      The National Covid map has Indiana as solid red. Do you think this is likely to happen?

      1. Yes. They will allegedly be in a bubble. Indy is the home of the NCAA and with all the enclosed skywalks and the like, it can be totally contained.

         1. Totally contained?

            Hope you’re right. It’s fine by me. I’ll be in my recliner. As long as I’m entertained, what happens to other coviduals is not in my program.

            I have an early prediction for that tournament – no team from the Pac 12 will be anywhere near The Final Four.

            1. That bubble will need to be quite large as it will need to extend from Bloomington, IN to W. Lafayette, IN as there will be NCAA games played at those locations as well. Obviously some of the earlier rounds but nevertheless games are being scheduled for those sites.

         2. Add in the NCAA division 2 tournament is going to be played in Evansville, IN and the Division 3 tournament will be played in Ft.Wayne, IN.

            Maybe they are preparing a bubble to cover the entire state.

10. The Dodgers are apparently still in on JDLM. I much prefer him over a player with much more swing and miss in his game mainly because Bellinger, Muncy, and yes, Taylor already give the Dodgers enough of that.

    Putting JDLM at third would allow Lux to earn the second base job and if he is not yet ready then JDLM could swing over to second and let Rios see what he can do at third. Turner’s ability to play second full time is in his past.

    If Lux excels in 2021 then he could be considered for shortstop in 2022. That puts Rios at third and JDLM at second, frees up salary that would have gone to one of the big five free agent shortstops, and allows Hoese to compete at third and Busch to have an opening at DH since Turner would not block him there.

    JDLM makes a ton of CBT payroll cents long term for the Dodgers.

    1. How do you think Turner would respond to giving Le Mahieu his job after what he has done for this team?

       I guess I shouldn’t be surprised if that happens, but I would be. Turner is a huge part of the heart and soul of this organization. He’s the 3 hole hitter on a World Championship Dodgers team. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, keep him here.

       1. I agree 100%

       2. The people who feel it’s fine to let JT go seem to be treating him as though he barely had his head above water last year. He’s still a very viable hitter. Yes, he may not hit as many homers as some other third baseman but with Belli, Muncy, Mookie, Seager, Pollock and Smith do we really need him to hit 25-30 homers a year?

          I have no problem with him playing third this year even if we only get 110-120 games out him (assuming a full 162 game season). There is no way the DH isn’t here starting in 2022 at the latest and JT would be the perfect guy for that spot.

          Justin Turner, as you point out Badger, is a huge emotional part of this team. That shouldn’t be overlooked.

          1. Badger and STB, I couldn’t agree more on all your points concerning Turner. If he’s good with a two year deal $8-10MM a year range then get it done. If no DH in 2021 then platoon with Rios and then DH full time in 2022. I find it hard to comprehend that Justin and Kourtney would move to Toronto for a third year. I know everyone loves trades, but this is a easy decision as far as I can see. Plus, let Lux have a legitimate shot 2B. If he doesn’t work out then Taylor is there to take his place. Maybe, an additional top end reliver and/or starter at a bargain price and short term deal. I would fine with me if that’s all the Dodgers did for the offseason.

             But, if Turner goes somewhere else then that might complicate things. But, I would guess AF has that covered.

          2. Turner and Rios at 3rd and Lux and Taylor at second works if the Dodgers sign a free agent ace shortstop for 2022.

             1. Bum, I like this plan for this year. I have no problem with JT and Rios and Lux and CT3 while AF works on a long term deal for Seager (as he stays at short). If Boros wants to test Seager in the open market we go shopping in a shortstop rich market after 2021.
                Two things that don’t excite me is moving Muncy to 2nd or Lux to short. down the road.
                If Lux was included in a trade, I would love DJLM at 2nd but I think he remains a Yankee. Name your high priced 3rd baseman and I don’t think we’ll see that either unless it’s part of a multi-player deal that doesn’t cost millions. We just have too many signings to consider after 21 to spend money now. IMO
                I was a big proponent last season of CT3 at 2nd and that basically happened with him starting at 2nd and moving to left to let Kike play defense at 2nd late in playoff games. I think Lux gets a shot at the job this spring, but I have no problem with CT3 the everyday guy if Lux doesn’t get it done.
                Once again, some folks just want to move existing guys and trade acquisitions here and there like chess pieces. Not everybody can or wants to do that. CT3 does it without complaint but he had to do that when he was acquired by the Dodgers. That and re-learning how to hit saved his career.
                Please explain to me WTF Joey Votto would bring to the table? He and Muncy on the right side would make Joc Peterson at first look like Wes Parker.

             2. I have been on Gleyber and somewhat with JKLM but never went so crazy as to want to bring Votto to the Dodgers. I even mentioned signing Realmuto to play first and catcher just for the fun of suggesting it. But again, no Votto.

                Lux is a shortstop that is being used at second due to Cory. He is only 23 next season and by age 24 he might be a legitimate shortstop for 2022. That would save about $25M in annual payroll.

11. Lux is a big key to 2021. And also how much our young pitchers can improve on their off speed stuff. If Graterol can develop a better slider and make it a plus pitch then he’s our future closer. With internal improvements esp Muncy and Belly we can be a better club than last year if JT comes back

12. You can’t statistically model someone’s heart. If you could somehow factor it into WAR, JT’s would be through the roof.

13. Wanting to get rid of Turner for someone who may put up a higher WAR in the regular season is very very short sided thinking. It’s ONLY thinking about the regular season and not October.

    Turner/Rios combo may not have the sexiest 3b stats over the regular season, but I guarantee JT in October will put up better, and more clutch numbers, than DJLM, Arrenado, Suarez, Kris Bryant, or anyone else people want to toss in here.

    This isn’t a fantasy baseball team where the season ends at end of September. This is the World Series Champion Dodgers who are expected to play into October, and we need proven October performers on this team. There aren’t very many clutch October performers in MLB better than JT.

14. With exception of homeruns, Justin Turner is a superior hitter than both Eugenio Suarez and Kris Bryant. Given their age, I can understand the speculative interest that the Dodgers might have in either Suarez or Bryant, but if we are talking about improving our offense, the Dodgers options are somewhat limited: signing DJLM, trading for Francisco Lindor or a healthy Nolan Arenado.

    Given the financial commitment and length of contract that is going to take to sign DJLM or trade for Nolan Arenado, in addition to the the prospect capital required to land Lindor, Arenado, Bryant or Suarez the Dodgers might be better off resigning Justin Turner to a 2-year deal. Even if Turner declines dramatically, a 2-year deal should not hamper the Dodgers’ ability to pursue Lindor or Bryant as free agents.

15. The MEDIA reports that the Dodgers are in on DJLM. The MEDIA also said that the Yankees are offering DJLM $80 million/4 years. That sounds about right. The Media says that DJLM is seeking 5 years/$125 million.

    A fool would give him that. Does anyone here think AF is that guy? I don’t! California’s tax rate is 5% higher than NY’s and they are trying to get more, so the Dodgers would have to offer DJLM $84 or $85 Million to match NY.

    This is just AF yanking your chains.

    JT is checking out his market. The Dodgers are kicking the tires and driving up the prices of some FA’s.

    Badger is right – I would not do that trade for Votto but I would take Suarez and Castillo.

    1. LA Times is reporting that JT is asking for 4 years. First time I’ve heard that and, of course, just because someone said that doesn’t make it true. Nobody is going to give him 4 years. The Jays might give him 3. AF might give him 2 and an option for a 3rd year.

       Andrew won’t give DJLM 5 years. He might give him 4 but I doubt he’d be high bidder.

       I don’t know if we’re waiting for JT’s decision before deciding how to proceed or if AF has a plan in mind regardless of what happens on that front. If Mr and Mrs Turner really want to stay in L.A. I suggest that they make a deal pretty quickly or that option might no longer be available to them.

       1. I’d give him 4 years. 4 and $48 million, with the last year a guaranteed job as bench coach.

          His last 3 years he’s made $12m, $19m and $20m. He’s earned $73.5m in his career to date. It’s not like he hasn’t been paid over the years. I’d offer him 3 years at a reasonable rate, see to it he makes well over $100 million in his career, and tell him he will have a home with Dodgers as long as he wants one.

          If that ain’t enough, if he CHOOSES more money from someone else, then by all means go get somebody else. Personally I think he wants to stay here. I still believe they will make it happen.

       2. https://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-reportedly-2-years-apart-on-contract-with-justin-turner/2021/01/04/

          1. They want 2, he wants 4. Sounds to me like we’ve landed on 3. 3 with an option buyout is a win for Turner.

    2. Well according to the media we don’t need JTLM because we traded for Arenado on Christmas Day!

    3. With an average annual salary of $11.2M over the next four seasons for Eugenio Suarez and three years of arbitration for Luis Castillo the cost in prospects is going too steep.

       1. Good point. Depending on who and how many it might take, it could be worth it.

16. One step up, two steps back. And I’m so tired I just want to go back to sleep regardless of how much I had slept. Got to get going, too much to do. If the glass is half full, it’s also half empty. Energy equals Mass times the Speed of Light times the Speed of Light so how do I get going? Damn! So much to do. Buy $ orders, go to hall of records, hospital, groceries, gas and worse to get others in gear to help make things possible. Mark, loan me that .357 for about two seconds. Just stopped in to give a greet to all. Happy New Year! I really hope so.
    P.S. Just kidding about loaning me the gun.

17. Turner is just doing what every player needs to do – maximize his earning potential. You can’t blame him. By the same token, if the Jays offer him 4 years at $48 million, I would let him walk.

    I think he wants to stay in LA, but FATHER TIME is catching up with him. I do think he can be solid for another 2 years semi-platooning with Rios…

    People say to give Lux a chance, even though he hasn’t delivered and I am fine with that, but Rios HAS delivered and they say he might strike out too much. Chickens might have lips too! What a double standard!

18. They’re both young guys who don’t have enough ab’s in the bigs to make a judgement on. 2021 will give us a decision. But if Turner doesn’t come back I’d be nervous with both those guys with full time status. That.’a where JDLM comes n perfect. Whichever guy doesn’t produce during the regular season that’s where JDLM plays in October.

19. Mark, which guy do you see with more success?

20. I love Turner. That being said, paying him to play at 40 is not something I would do. But if he really want’s a 4 year deal, I hope he loves Toronto. Any player is replaceable. One way or another someone is playing 3rd for LA this season. I went through this before when they went years without a regular 3rd baseman until Cey arrived. Same thing then Beltre came. Since Beltre left, there have been many through that revolving door. The way baseball is structured now, any player who stays with a team longer than say 8 years is an anomaly. The two longest tenured Dodgers, and the only players with more than 10 years with the team are Kenley and Kersh. Yankees among the teams interested in Puig. Giants sign Casali to a one year deal.

    1. I don’t think $16 million a year is too much for Turner. On a limited basis I believe he can still put up 3 WAR (he’s actually done 4+ WAR or near it 7 straight years) and the influence he has in the dugout and with younger players is immeasurable. $ per WAR was estimated at $8 million for 2020 so it won’t go lower than that. He’s worth the investment.

       That said, if Turner wants to play in Canada, or maybe Florida again, who knows, then God speed Justin, and we move on. Sure would like to get this behind us.

21. Vin Scully’s wife, Sandi, has passed away

    1. Sad. That’s his second wife that has died on him.

22. Sandra passed from ALS our prayers for Vin and family

23. Everyone appears to want to keep turner including me. However, turner has got to want to remain a Dodger. I just think deep down he wants to and that he will. My opinion is just based on his interviews and the last time he signed. Not every player is motivated by money. Like anyone else I’m sure turner does want to be appreciated and not be taken for granted. I believe the Dodgers will be fair with him.

    Turner is going to be pressured to go to the highest bidder by the union. He will probably receive a better offer in terms of years and money as a player. But, he is a big cog on a world championship team. He might pick up more endorsement dollars in la. The Dodgers might give him a role after retirement in the organization which will keep him on the payroll. He can retire with a great organization and live happily ever after. Those people that say DJLM is just driving up the price and will sign with the Yankees could say the same about turner and la.

    I would be happy to c turner and Rios share 3rd the next year or 2. We need turner in October. When turner signs the line will start moving. Btw Mark your article on Taylor points out how valuable he is. He is a fantastic asset for the Dodgers. Many will be happy to vie for him but I think he will be more valuable with a championship team as opposed to a second tier team.

24. So sad to hear that. Uncanny since I was just listening to Vin on a CD I have with baseball tunes on it celebrating the Dodgers 50th year in LA. RIP Sandra.

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