The New Yourk Yankees have all but guaranteed that they will not be over the Luxury Threshold Tax in 2021 and I would fully expect that the Dodgers will follow suit… unless something too good to be true turns up. The Dodgers have deep pockets and even after losing $100 Million + last year, they can probably afford to pay a few million in Luxury Tax… but why?
The Dodgers are the class of MLB and favorites to win the World Series again in 2021… but San Diego has pulled closer. However, to think that the Dodgers will just blow by the Luxury Tas Threshold is both naive and delusional. There is not much room… They can sign Turner for $18 Million and two years, but Hendriks? Ha! Trading for Arenado? No way! Suarez? I doubt it!
Not many teams can afford to spend big this winter but some are trying. Just to be clear, while I have no knowledge of Guggenheim & Company’s finances, I do know that they have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders. They have just won a World Series, but after losing more than $100 Million Dollars, many would think it would be reckless to overspend right in the middle of a pandemic.
It’s fun to concoct up all kinds of trade scenarios and while I do believe that Andrew Friedman is “in” an most free agents, I do not believe he will sign a free agent that is going to thrust the Dodger over the Luxury Tax Threshold. Yes, they can afford it, but No that is not their M.O. Remember that the Tampa Bay Rays payroll in 2020 was more than $100 Million less than the Dodgers,
Stacking a team with all the best free agents is not the way Andrew Friedman has done it in the past and it is not the way he is going to do it now! Also, lets’ face it: The fattest payroll does not always win! In fact, having the biggest payroll usually means you won’t win… regardless of 2020.
Justin Turner is doing his due diligence, but when it’s all said and done, I think he will be back in LA, sharing time with Edwin Rios at 3B and trying to win another Championship. The Dodgers could also bring back Alex Wood and/or Pedro Baez, on team-friendly deals. Blake Treinen is also a possibility, but I think someone will dangle more money and more years.
The truth is that the Dodgers are stuck… and that is good. Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy are motivated to return to their 2019 form after a down 2020. Marty Lamb has a saying “If a player did it once, he can do it again!” Max and Cody have done it before… TWICE! They can do it again. Edwin Rios is working hard in Florida to prove he is no fluke. Mookie Betts would love to win an MVP in the NL and Corey Seager is playing for new contract.
To those of you who say that Friedman should go ahead and extend Seager, remember who his agent is and that it takes two to reach a deal. I would think that Seager’s best deal could be made this winter, rather than waiting until their is a glut of shortstops on the market, which there will be after the 2021 season. Baez, Story, Correa, Lindor, and Seager all will be in that 2021 Free Agent class.
Kenley Jansen, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Taylor, Joe Kelly, and Corey Knebel all come off the books after 2021. That is $65 Million that they could use to sign one or two of those shortstops and other Free Agents in 2021. Next year, we can dream of whoever we want, but what you see right about now is what you will get.
Andrew Friedman has shown that he will go after a player (or players) at the trade deadline, if necessary. Witness Machado, Darvish, Reddick, Hill, et al. Speaking of Hill, I would love to see him come back on a team-friendly deal, but I hear that he is talking to Boston and that is close to home. Dick Mountain is Mountain Mover and can play for me any day.
If I had to guess the Dodgers Opening Day position players in 2020, it would be :
- C – Will Smith
- 1B – Max Muncy
- 2B – Gavin Lux
- SS – Corey Seager
- 3B – Justin Turner
- LF – AJ Pollock
- CF – Cody Bellinger
- RF – Mookie Betts
- DH – Edwin Rios (if implemented)
No lineup is perfect, but that is a pretty dang good defensive and offensive unit. There are not many better lineups in baseball… if any. That leaves Barnes, McKinstry, Taylor and probably one of Beaty, Reks, or Raley on the bench.
David Price will be back (write that down) and I would expect a very good year from him. 2021 is the likely the year Walker Buehler fulfills all his promise and I think Clayton might like to retire as a Top Five Starter with a second World Championship Trophy. Julio Urias will likely be the #4, behind Kershaw, Buehler and Price. That leaves May and Gonsolin (and maybe even Josiah Gray) to duke it out for the 5th spot. I think it would interesting to see Gray get that spot with both May and Gonsolin going to the bullpen for a year, before going back to starting. That may or may not happen, but it is possibility.
I think the bullpen will be fine with the multitude of arms they already have and I have been told to “watch our for Garrett Cleavinger” – he is on the verge of just finally figuring it out.” Kenley Jansen wants to prove he is still a top reliever, but this time, all the weight will not be on his shoulders as he will share the closing duties with others.
I said it before and I will say it again: Joe Kelly might be cut if he can’t find the form the Dodgers expected when they signed him. To me, the bullpen options are exciting and I look forward to the competition.
A Lot to be Thankful for…
2020 was a devil of a year. Some of it was magic and some of it was tragic, but I had a good life all the way (this line is at the end video below):
Part of the good life I have had in 2020 is because of the great people at LA DODGER TALK and I am especially thankful for the following writers:
- Jeff Dominique (AC) – He is a CFO, CPA-type and we love to agree and disagree. We know how to push each others’ buttons, but at the end of the day, it is all good! We agree more than we disagree, but when we disagree, we are not disagreeable!
- Harold Uhlman (DC) – Harold has been on this earth longer than everyone here combined! 😉 Yet, he still is standing tall. He says he is retired, but when the minor leagues start back up, he will start salivating like Pavlov’s Dog and be back. You wanna’ bet?
- Michael Norris (Bear) – I love Michael, even when I hate him… which is NEVER! We have some common bonds: (1) We both love Yasmani Grandal; and (2) We won’t back down. OK… maybe it’s just one. You pick!
- Rob Schelling (2demeter2) – Rob towers over me and is a gentle giant of a man. He says he is retired from blogging, but we both know better. He has been a huge part of LADT success. As an attorney, I hope he doesn’t sue me for that!
- Evan Bladh (Sons of Kingman) – Evan is extremely busy in Homeland Security at SF. His wife retired recently and when he does, maybe he will come back and keep writing.
The above writers are amazing. Jeff is the point man and hopefully enjoying his retirement, except when I raise his blood pressure! 😉
Happy New Year to all!
Yes indeed, many thanks to all the writers that contribute to this website. Dodger Talk and coffee is a good way to start the day.
I’m sure you meant Bellinger in CF.
Shhhhh…
No one will ever know! 😉
In my dream scenario the Dodgers sign Bauer and Hendriks and trade for Suarez. But I can live with your lineup and rotation too. Still very, very talented though the Padres certainly have made up ground and the division would be a dogfight for sure while a playoff series could go either way .
Difference could very well be the pen and if nothing else I think the Dodgers for sure should bring in a proven closer if kJ can not do this job (which sadly is a realistic view given his struggles the last couple years).
Rosenthal , Hendriks or Hand should be in a Dodgers uni IMHO.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good article, makes perfect sense. Just two things though, were you fell into mainstream reasoning. First AF would much rather develop a shortstop ( or any other position) and if he doesn’t have an internal option then trade for one , and second, the Dodgers typically have utilized a hybrid 6 man pitching rotation and will no doubt especially do that this coming season.
Weird, I never remember the Dodgers using a hybrid 6 man rotation or even know what that is. It would be interesting to see a 6 man rotation when so many teams have problems filling their rotations with 5 starters and the increased trends towards openers are bullpen games.
I’m thinking the Dodgers stick to a five man rotation and use the IL to rest their starters as they’ve done in the past.
Call me crazy, but I think Lux is Corey insurance at Shortstop, since he was drafted and developed as a shortstop.
If Lux has a great 2021, he could give Friedman second thoughts about signing a megacontract for shortstop next year.
Agree with MT’s post almost completely. Just don’t see AF going past the Luxury Tax and I don’t think he has to. I think AF will work hard from now and through the next off season to get the youngsters signed longterm (Cody, Corey, Walker etc.).
I think JT comes back on a two-year deal with a team controlled third year option, Nelson or Morrow will find their previous from and join the BP, Victor Gonzalez will become a huge piece in the BP, we will be very pleased with Kenebel and Lux will show why he was a minor league player of the year. No real reason for a big splash but we’ll probably continue to see some “below the radar” with some low risk veteran bench pieces to take the place of Hernandez but for the most part we will be the same team that won it all.
Here’s to hoping for a safe 2021 where we can attend games in-person. I would love to attend ST but that’s unrealistic, but hoping for some fans in attendance in June/July.
I missed the Rose Bowl game yesterday but when I saw some highlights on the news, it looked like fans were in the stands.
Hold on to what we have.
We just graduated Lux, May, Gonsolin, Graterol & Gonzalez.
Our new top ten is:
1. Gray
2. Ruiz
3. Hoese
4. Busch
5. Miller
6. Beeter
7. Vargas
8. Cartaya
9. Pages
10. Rodriguez
Honorable mention is McKinstry, who is a near lock to make the opening roster.
Add a little, prune a little, trust the process.
Happy 2021
It’s 2021 and the Dodgers are defending World Series Champions. MLB’s Preseason Power Rankings are out and the Dodgers are No. 1. No surprises here. but low and behold our red headed step child down south is in the number two spot. This is going to be a fun year.
Amazingly the Padres, who don’t have our TV deal, or own their own stadium like we do, that haven’t received additional revenue by playing in post season games for almost a decade straight, are spending like drunken sailors on leave and have their payroll sitting at just $30 Million below ours for the upcoming season.
How the hell can they spend like that, but somehow we’re restricted to an imaginary line? Our “MO” is going to prevent us from filling the one big hole we have? What the hell is this MO anyways? Can I see it? Can I touch it?
Let’s examine this MO thing a little further. Is MO referring to the great state of Missouri? The hateful day of Monday? That doesn’t make much sense, why would Missouri, or Monday keep us from going over the CBT? Let’s just assume that MO is modus operandi…
“a particular way or method of doing something, especially one that is characteristic or well-established.”
So, some are saying that our beloved Dodgers, who have been owned by Guggenheim Baseball Management since 2012, have a “well-established” procedure or rule of not surpassing the CBT. Let’s test that…
When they bought the Dodgers in 2012, opening day payroll was $95 M, 12th in the league. Ouch, we were spending right between the White Sox and the Twins. What dark days those were. Since then, they were…
2013 – $216M, 2nd
2014 – $235M, 1st
2015 – $272M, 1st
2016 – $223M, 1st
2017 – $242M, 1st
2018 – $186M, 3rd
2019 – $170M, 7th
2020 – $227M, 2nd
By looking at the payroll for each year that the Dodgers were owned by GBM it actually looks like you can conclude that their MO is to not give a crap about the CBT threshold. This supports my statement that they don’t give a crap about the CBT and just for clarity, I use the $272M million number to make my case. I did not say they would spend to that degree, just that they’ve done it before and will do it gain whenever they feel like it makes sense.
Just like the “No Boat Anchor” MO of the past, the signing Mookie for $30M a year until he’s 39 blew that one out of the water and we don’t hear much talk about that one anymore.
I suggested signing DJLM and Henricks or Rosenthal. Then pick up some leftovers to fill out the bench during ST. Let’s say we’re going to be under the CBT by $20M today. I think I’ve heard that number from our resident CFO AC.
DJLM for 22M puts us over by $2M
Let’s say Henricks or Rosenthal is about $8M. I’m just thinking that’s fair because no one would touch Hand for $10M on a one year deal. Now, we’re over by $10M. A couple of bench pieces? Worst case scenario another $10M total brings us to $20M over the CBT. That’s chump change compared to the payroll history of this ownership group and fits right into their “MO”, or well established way of doing things.
You are so far off on your numbers and fantasy ideas that I almost don’t know where to start, but I will start here:
You can only go by the Year-End Competitive Balance Tax Payroll, which is as follows:
2012: $158.2 Million
2013: $234,2 Million
2014: $277.7 Million
2015: 296.9 Million
2016: $252.5 Million
2017: $253.6 Million
2018: $195.1 Million
2019: $204.9 Million
2020: $204.6 Million
In 2018 the Dodgers stated that they planned to stay under the Luxury Tax until 2022. Well, it was actually leaked by Bill Shaiken of the LA Times. Does that mean that they don’t care about winning? No, obviously they do, so the other possibility is that this was a public announcement made to appease Guggenheim investors and that the front office has an inkling that they can secure some cash flow by promising cutbacks in certain areas, then when things are more stable in a season or two go back on that and make a big splash on the free agency market. The team has lost significant amounts of money on paper during this first stretch of the Guggenheim ownership group’s reign, and this is in line with their initial plan when they bought the team. The fact that they have lost over $100 million ins 2020, should help fans realize that Guggenheim investors could create quote a ruckus if the Dodgers were to spend as they did in 2014-2017.
In fact, they did say that they were willing to spend to help AF re-stock the Dodgers farm system and put Butts in Seats. Todd Bohley and other Guggenheim Investors have money invested in Guggenheim because Guggenheim Partners is a global investment and advisory firm with more than $295 billion in assets under management and a track record of delivering results. Mark Walter convinced investors that it was necessary to spend in 2014 to 2017, but that it would not last forever.
The Dodgers will sign long-term contracts like with Mookie in the future, but for the most part, they will not exceed the Luxury Tax Threshold. The Dodgers owners have created a “Safe Harbor” to protect Guggenheim Investors, but there was unrest among some investors which culminated in a lawsuit that was quickly withdrawn presumably because the Dodgers agreed to make changes. You can read all out it here: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/24/la-dodgers-linked-to-20-billion-plan-to-stabilize-big-insurers-wsj.html
So, the Dodgers MIGHT slightly exceed the LTT, but it won’t be by much. Past spending is no guarantee of future spending.
100% concur. The owners allowed (told) AF to spend so the team could accumulate players in order to compete/contend and build up their system at the same time. No down years. One big priced free agent wasn’t going to get them to be a competitor, so they spent on multiple free agents and made multiple questionable trades and waiver pickups to get their roster to be competitive. It worked. Fans can argue about whether what they did do was appropriate or foolish. No reason to start that up again. AF did what he thought was best. The team did not win a championship, but they were competitive. They were also told by MLB to bring their payroll down and to get their debt ratio in line, or there would be consequences. In 2018, that is exactly what they did.
Guggs investors expect the Dodgers to operate as a stand alone entity, without fund transfers from their investments. Reasonable and appropriate request. MLB teams are great investments… for the long term. Short term and cash requirements, not so much. The Dodgers are fortunate that they signed the largest local TV deal in MLB, I have not read the contract to understand whether there is a required reimbursement for when games are cancelled. Nor do I want to. I agree, the Dodger owners got very wealthy on their TV deal. But it is still a legit question as to what happened to those TV deal revenues in 2020. When LAD and the other organizations open their books, we might find out. National Network TV is divided equally amongst all 30 teams and was guaranteed and paid out.
Actually the Padres do own 30% of Petco Park, I also have no idea what the terms of their lease is. If B&P does, he should share that information. Were the lease payments forgiven? I am sure some business writer in San Diego has already figured that out. One other point conveniently not mentioned by B&P is the debt owned by each entity. The Padres have $116MM in debt while LAD have $408MM. That has to be paid back and probably with current dollars, and not future dollars.
So B&P can delude himself into thinking that the Dodgers have bottomless pockets of money. Regardless, they continue to tell everyone around that they are going to stay under the CBT, or maybe slightly over, but not by $20MM to $30MM or $68MM (to $278MM) as B&P suggest they should (and can) do. I am going to listen to them. The Dodgers may have been willing to go above and beyond last year for one year, but that was for Mookie. The Dodgers do not NEED another Mookie, especially with their own free agents coming up. Fans may want another, but they do not NEED another.
Wow, were to start? I guess I’ll start by saying the name calling is childish for a couple of 70-80 somethings. I’m referring to calling me delusional and saying things like that I live in a fantasy land by suggesting they go over the CBT by 20M. No AC, I did not “Suggest” they should spend 278M, I use that as a reference as to what they can do if they want since they’ve done it in the past. Don’t twist my words.
Mark, I used beginning of the year payrolls, but going by your numbers, the Dodgers exceeded the CBT in 5years, under in 4 years. By definition their MO would be to go over more so than to stay under. In fact, you can see that they stayed under for three years in a row. It sure looks like the pendulum is about to swing back the other way.
AC you said they may go slightly over, but not over by 20M? Last year their opening day payroll was over by 19M. Why can’t they go over by 20M this year after getting the gift of Covid and David Price’s opt out keeping them under last year? Please explain you’re “logic”.
Here’s the AF MO’s for all of us to follow per MT and AC…
They won’t go over the CBT until 2022 – Half right so far, although they started last season over by $19M. You’ll be right if they stay under just one more year! I’m not pulling for you because I’d rather have a better team.
No boat anchor contracts – wrong Mookie Betts
They won’t spend money on a reliever – wrong – Resigned Jansen for way too much money and signed Joe Kelly.
Mark, you said “There was unrest among some investors which culminated in a lawsuit that was quickly withdrawn presumably because the Dodgers agreed to make changes.” and referenced a link to and article to backup you claim. No where in the article does it say the Dodgers agreed to make changes. In fact, it says “The suit was quickly withdrawn, but did attract scrutiny from regulators, who ultimately concluded nothing was amiss.” You’re just making shit up.
Padres rent is Thirty-five percent (35%) of Gross Revenues. Sounds like a great deal. (That’s sarcasm in case you missed it.) There’s a provision for minimum rent as well. Here’s the doc.
https://www.voiceofsandiego.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Signed-Lease-Tailgate.pdf
Consider it shared and try not to be so sarcastic. It was easy to find, I hope you put more effort into the research you use to form all of the “Opinions” you listed in your replies to me.
You are soooo silly and ill-equipped for this conversation that it is delusional. I am not calling you names – just saying what you are.
Of course, the article doesn’t say what the agreement was, but the Dodgers agreed to do something or paid them some money. to withdraw the suit Even Ray Charles can see that. It’s called paying off shareholders to drop a suit so that nothing is wrong!
Also, I don’t know where you get your numbers, but they are not even close. The proof is in the pudding. Watch the payroll scoreboard and see what happens. That will tell the tale.
The Dodgers and AF operate in secrecy (which is fine) but the outcome will speak volumes. You are cherry-picking facts and madly over-applying them to the whole equation. Someone is about to get “schooled.”
Calling you delusional or Mark saying you live in fantasy land, is not name calling. And neither Mark or I are between 70-80, although I am not sure that is important. You said the Padres did not own Petco Park, and all I said was that they owned 30%, and that they had a lease. I did not know what the terms were, and questioned whether the lease payments were forgiven or not. I have read and negotiated thousands of leases for over 30 years and I do not care to read another. But the rental terms are below:
(a) From the Commencement Date to the day prior to the Ballpark Opening Date, the rent payable shall be fifty percent (50%) of Net Revenues derived from the {00182865.DOC 2 Leased Premises, calculated on a monthly basis. If Operating Expenses exceed Gross Revenues, then no payment of rent will be due for that month. The term “Ballpark Opening Date” shall mean the first day that a Major League Baseball game is played in the Ballpark, which date was April 8, 2004.
(b) Commencing on the Ballpark Opening Date, the annual rent under this Lease shall be (i) the Minimum Annual Rent or (ii) the applicable percentage rent per year as provided in Paragraph 4(d) below, whichever is greater.
(c) The “Minimum Annual Rent” shall be One Hundred Fifty Thousand Dollars ($150,000) per year, commencing on the Ballpark Opening Date. The Minimum Annual Rent shall increase four percent (4%) on the first anniversary of the Ballpark Opening Date and shall increase four percent (4%) per year thereafter (effective on the anniversary of the Ballpark Opening Date) for the remainder of the Term of this Lease.
(d) Percentage Rents on and after the Ballpark Opening Date shall be calculated on a monthly basis and shall be based on the following percentages of the operations and businesses conducted on or from the Leased Premises:
(2) Thirty-five percent (35%) of Gross Revenues, commencing on the fourth (4th) anniversary of the Ballpark Opening Date and continuing for the remainder of the Term of this Lease.
I have no idea what MLB paid San Diego for the use of Petco for the ALDS and ALCS. Was it more than the $800K. That is the amount of gross revenues they would have needed to generate to offset the annual minimum rent of $281K. How did the other 26 teams feel that they were not getting any rental payments? Would they object to $1MM for 12 games? Or were those lease terms covered expenses, which would have been fair? No I am not going to look for that lease either, because it is irrelevant. I am not going to review any of the remaining lease terms, nor am I going to inquire if the Padres asked for and got an addendum to their lease due to COVID. It would not surprise me one way or the other. What the Padres pay in rent, is not a factor in their player acquisition decisions. I do not have access to their books, but go ahead and assume that the percentage rent was 3-4 times greater than the calculated annual minimum rent, and rent was $1MM for 2020. It wasn’t because that would mean that MLB paid San Diego almost $3MM for the 12 games. But would that really make a difference in the Padres plans for roster configuration?
What did Mark make up? Are you saying that there was no lawsuit, or that it has not been settled.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-guggenheim-lawsuit/guggenheim-defeats-lawsuit-claiming-it-siphoned-annuity-units-cash-for-la-dodgers-idUSKCN1UA2KM.
My final words to you – My prediction is that the Dodgers will not sign DJLM, they will not sign Liam Hendriks, they will sign JT, and they will sign a second tier reliever. They will not exceed the CBT. You disagree…good for you. Henceforth, I will respond to you as I did when you were 59inarow…ignore you. Of course Mark banned you back then. I do think he is feeling more generous in his “old age”.
BTW. The next time you supply a lease, you might want to read it to make sure that it backs up your argument. For 2020, the rental payments were not onerous and have no impact on what the Padres can do.
Age does not make us dummies. It makes us experienced. I have no clue about thier lease or the financial health of any MLB team. I do know that the Dodgers have made a concerted effort to stay below the threshold the last few years. Now, there is a commentator on MLBTR who feels the Dodgers are ok with going over for one season if they sign DJLM. I have no clue where he gets this info. The fact remains, that even if he is talking with the Dodgers to push the Yanks into signing him, he is still in contact with LA. My view is this, and it is the same thing I said about the stimuli payments, I will believe it when I see it. When the signature is dry on a contract then and only then will we know what the plan is.
Happy New Year everyone. I hope this one is a lot better than the last. That being said, I think Mark nailed this. I also do not see Friedman doing anything spectacular. Especially with the financial state of the game at this point. No one knows when the fans will be allowed back in the parks. There were 3000 people at the game yesterday that substituted for the real Rose Bowl. There still are no fans at NBA games. So everything is in flux. I fully expect Bellinger and Muncy to rebound. Bellinger so far in his career has been good, meh, good, meh. So this is the time for a good year. I think AF will do his due diligence with the free agents available and when all is said and done, he will have signed players he feels will help the team. And remember, right now the roster stands at 39. Two of those players can be moved to the IL when they report to spring training, Kahnle and Ferguson. All of the reports indicate they are talking to DJLM’s agent. Now at this point I do not see them acceding to his desire for a 5 year deal. For that reason and the fact that it seems like they are waiting on Turner, I doubt he signs with LA> If he did, it would be a huge surprise. He could also surprise us all with a trade. We are all in the dark here. Wondering when and where will anything happen. I look for the free agent market to start moving at a brisker pace the next couple of weeks. Oh yeah Mark, I just love Grandal.
😉
We have another thing in common, we both pack heat.
Never leave home without it
Absolutely. Smith and Wesson 9 mm. Nice and light and lethal.
Doesn’t everyone? Refers to packing heat!
Nope, I know quite a few that do not. No reflection on their character. Some not firearms proficient. I trust my aim better than I do others.
Maybe make JDLM’s 5th year of his contract pay him $2M to bring down his average annual salary.
That line-up seems pretty realistic, absent of wishful thinking and highly unlikely trade fantasies.
Did the Dodgers actually lose over a hundred million dollars or is that more of a reflection of lost revenue due to no fans, not factoring in reduced costs? Some teams were no doubt hard hit, but then they don’t have the Dodgers TV deal.
Many of the trade or signing scenarios right now seem to center around the Dodgers not re-signing Turner or the second base situation, maybe a versatile role player and bullpen help.
Still think Turner re-signs on a two year deal, Mark’s numbers look good. Yes, David Price will probably play. Dave Roberts seemed less certain. But I can’t imagine any player leaving that kind of money on the table.
I agree with NorCal that Gonzalez will be a huge bullpen piece. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Brandon Morrow bounce back or any other one year BP signing. Nature of the beast.
Some of the trade scenarios’ fans come up with are just totally nuts. That is one reason I refrain from making those kinds of predictions. If a scenario seems plausible, well than I try to figure out if AF would even consider making that kind of move. He more than any of us knows who he is in contact with and who is most likely to help the team win again. Guys who will not be back, Treinen, Pederson, Baez, Kike, McGee. Already back, Nelson. Possible, Turner, Wood. I think with only one spot on the roster open, if he want’s to sign more than that, someone is going to have to go. Most likely candidates, Sborz and Santana. I do not see either of those guys cracking the roster. I am not that sold on Raley or Reks either. Those two and Beaty are 3 versions of the same guy. I would have liked to have seen more of McKinstry last season. I think they missed a real opportunity to see what he could do. They could also package Ruiz in a deal. Catching at this point is not a black hole. Spring is coming. All questions shall be answered grasshopper. Be patient.
Wrong.
In times of crisis, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
It’s the opportunity for the Dodgers to get parts at a lower cost than in “normal times” they wouldn’t, that includes Turner.
The Dodgers with their financial power must take advantage of the situation.
Interesting take. How do you define financial power. Value of the franchise? Means nothing other than ability to borrow and what investors can expect in the long term. Revenues? They lost more revenues than any other team last year, and revenues expect to be down again in 2021. Do you know the non player payroll expense? Or the other operating expenses? How is that stadium renovation being financed? If you do not know the answer to those questions, you cannot possibly know what financial power the Dodgers have?
Below is an article from a retired CPA who delved into the financial strength of each of the organizations and ranked them. He is a Cardinals fan, so there is more information directly related to the Cardinals so you can ignore that if you want. I found it interesting, but I am a nerd. The rankings are at the bottom of the article. The Dodgers are ranked right in the middle at #16. I am guessing that their debt of $408MM has an awful lot to do with that. They are at their max rate for borrowing, so they need to operated fully from their revenue base. No team spends more on scouting, analytics, developing, and training than the Dodgers. Without gate revenues, how do those costs get paid? Or do you just cut all those costs? I do not know the answers, but I am not the one saying that the Dodgers have all this financial power. Please support your statement that the Dodgers have all this financial power.
https://thecardinalnation.com/ranking-major-league-baseball-teams-financial-strength/
I think it is really far-fetched that DJLM comes to LA. I don’t think he will leave the East Coast. Yankee Stadium is made for him and he knows that. I could see the Mets signing him but if he is smart, he will go back to the Yankees. His wife and he love NYC and AF is just making sure the Yankees pay through the teeth! It worked with Cole.
Great post Mark!!! Thanks to all the other writers who work so hard to make this blog a fantastic read. Happy New Year to all!!
Mark I believe u have stated a realistic view of our current status. In a way it is disappointing when reality hits but here we are. We have a great returning team who I think will be better than the world champs (assuming we have Turner). I think our bullpen will be better and I expect lux and bellinger to have banner years.
I believe AF is waiting on Turner to committ. If it is to LA then he could get 3 years at 12 mil. That would leave some wiggle room for deadline deals. Or not, if turner signs elsewhere then AF goes to plan B. He could try to get DJLM or Suarez or somebody not on the radar. I just don’t think he will stand pat if we don’t get turner. I don’t think that turner can be a regular for 3 years but to keep the aav down and with the dh coming it works.
I think the moves the pads made makes us a tossup on paper. Bullpens might be the difference. Atlanta is very good and could be better than us or the pads. Our winning may give us a slight mental edge. But, if we have a full season depth will probably decide the western division. I believe LA has to get better than last year to repeat.
There are some pundits who are floating the idea that the Dodgers are kicking the tires, or at least considering trading for Castillo of the Reds rather than entertain Bauer. Bauer has been talking to the Blue Jays, and the Jays are ready to spend again. This is a really intriguing off season because it is really taking some time for the market to set itself. And there are a lot of players who are heading for foreign leagues.
The Dodgers looking to trade for Castillo is a move I would agree with. But I cannot see the Reds making a move involving a top of the rotation pitcher on a $4.4MM contract and two years of arbitration, without a significant overpay. They are certainly anticipating a costly two years of arbitration, but I am sure that they figure they can get a ransom for a pitcher of Castillo’s stature with three years control. They are probably not getting the potential returns for Sonny Gray that they anticipated. Castillo is the one asset they do have that could bring back a considerable return of MLB ready players for them to be in a position to contend next year or at the very least the year after. I am very much looking forward to seeing what Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene will be able to do. Probably 2022. Christian Roa a year later. They also have Tyler Mahle, Michael Lorenzen and rookie Riley O’Brien as a potential back of the rotation starter. Once revenues increase, they will be in a position to look at FA again. Just about the time Joey Votto is off the payroll (after 2023). Same as Castellanos and Moustakas.
Toronto currently has a projected CBT of $93MM. They have said they are willing to go to $167MM which was their CBT in 2018. That is $74MM to spend. That will get them a couple of the big four if that is what they want to do. Toronto is fairly modern and extensive with their analysis. Bauer is going to get into contact with their top pitching analyst. They do meet another of Bauer’s criteria in that they are a contender. I think Bauer would love to stick it to Gerrit Cole. He still could end up with the Mets. His reported asking price is 5-6 years at $36MM to $40MM. He got into a little tweeting meltdown with Jon Heyman, but he never really denied it. I do not know why it is such a big deal. Asking price is one thing. Getting it is another. Toronto has shown that they are willing to overpay as in years and dollars as they did with Ryu last year. Will they do it again in 2021 with Bauer? I would not bet against them.
I would have to agree with all of that Jeff. We just do not know in which direction AF is really leaning. But the one story that is not going away it seems is the one that says the Dodgers are still in talks with LeMahieu.
I think Mark is right. I think DJLM’s agent is keeping the Dodgers interest up so as to build up the price he will ultimately get with NYY. The one problem, Brian Cashman is not Kevin Malone. He is not bidding against himself. Now I would not be disappointed if I was wrong. I have wanted DJLM since his Rockies days. When everyone was saying he is a product of Coors, I said he will hit outside of Coors because he is a hitter. Less than 10% K rate last year. Nobody shifts for DJLM. I doubt that Yankee Stadium was the reason for such a low K rate and no shift. When all is said and done though, DJLM will be back with NYY.
There are several things worth responding to here.
First, I have read nothing that says that the Dodgers are owned by Guggenheim Partners. Guggenheim Partners is an LLC owned by numerous people. Mark Walter is one of them and is CEO of Guggenheim Partners. They control over $275 BB in assets, but do not own the Dodgers.
The Dodgers’ majority owners are Guggenheim Baseball Management. They are owned by Mark Walter, Magic Johnson, Peter Gruber, Stan Kasten, Bobby Patton and Todd Boehly. They owe no duty to Guggenheim Partners.
Second, what the Dodgers spend on payroll is the tip of the iceberg. The Dodgers spend more than any team in baseball on analytics. Unlike teams like the Houston Cheaters, the Dodgers maintain a huge scouting department – according to Baseball America, they spend 4th most in MLB on scouting. Per the same article, they invest heavily in staff development and recruitment, getting the best scouts, coaches, executives and analysts. .
They spend more on minor league nutrition – they have travelling chefs for all but 2 teams and for those teams they cater meals. ““They have unbelievable resources, they’ve done a very good job of player acquisition and then they’ve given their players everything they can think of to help them succeed,” the rival NL executive said. “That’s a tremendous recipe.””
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/theyre-the-model-how-the-dodgers-player-development-machine-rolls-on/
So the Dodgers have money – it’s not Guggenheim money. They spend on payroll but far more to grow their own and to help all of their players, major leaguers and minor leaguers alike, to be successful.
But that doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t spend to obtain quality major league players. They have not done that during this offseason. I will devote a separate post to compare what they have gained and lost so far this offseason.
Great article, thank u!
To learn more about Dodgers Ownership, go here:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pandemic-puts-l-a-dodgers-unorthodox-ownership-structure-to-the-test-11603897408
It’s a very convoluted and hard to follow investment.
Baseball America is a great source for a lot of that level of information and anything developmental. I have been saying the same thing the last several years only for B&P and others to indicate that I have no idea what I am talking about. The Dodger owners are billionaires but they do not have limitless funds available. What you say about Mark Walter and Todd Boehly is correct, but it may not have always been so. When they did go onto their big spending spree, it was highly rumored that Walter “borrowed” from Guggenheim and affiliated entities with “investments” into the Dodgers. This accounting magic was caught by both MLB and Guggenheim, and their insurance company entities, and all of the investments had to be repaid, and the $20B fund that Mark alluded was required. Everything is all on the up and up now. What absolutely happened, we will probably never know until Walter sells the Dodgers and somebody writes a book. But I am guessing that the reports are pretty close. The Dodgers now have to operate as a stand alone company. They do not have any other entity to keep them financially flush. So those billions are paper billions, not liquid. Another example as to where these operating funds are coming from are that average ticket prices increased from $31.19 in 2016 & 2017 to $41.13 in 2018 and $42.62 in 2019. Pretty nice inflation on ticket prices, all around the same time that Dodger management had to face up to both MLB and Guggenheim, and establish a plan.
I do not feel sorry for the Dodger owners. They have money and a lot of it. And they may have access to a lot more. But they are also responsible business people who know they need to generate a profit for their investors. Everyone wants and deserves a positive return on their investment. For 2019, the Dodgers had a reported operating income of $96MM (tied with San Francisco for the most). Kasten is saying the Dodgers lost more than $100MM in 2020. Is he saying they lost north of $100MM compared to 2019? Or a true loss of more than $100MM? Open your books and let us know.
He said he lost more than $100M in revenue. They also lost about $110 in player payroll obligations. Simple math says that’s a net gain.
They don’t need to open their books. If they did the players would demand more money. This tells me that they make more money then they’re letting on. If it were the other way around, they would open their books, obviously.
The Forbes article says they made $96M out of $556M of revenue. They’re worth 3.4 B and have only 408M in debt. Their payroll in 2019 was second only to the Yankees who had a $27M higher payroll, $127 higher revenue, but the Dodgers operating income was $61M higher than the Yankees!
Seems to me their financial position is pretty damn strong. 2nd highest operating income, 2nd highest revenue while maintaining the 2nd highest payroll in 2019. Losing 100M in revenue while decreasing player payroll by 110M in 2019.
NO, That is not what Kasten said at all. Here is exactly what he said:
“Our cash loss this year were well north of $100 million, and there’s no way to predict that. Any team is prepared to have a downturn, lose $5 million, lose $10 million. No one can be prepared for an unexpected cash loss of $100 million or more a year. We have enough strength and depth in our organization that we’re going to get through this, but it’s going to take a while to catch up.
This is not a revenue loss. He is talking about a bottom-line cash loss. Now, you and others can disbelieve that, but think about it:
1. They probably bring in $3 Million Plus a game, so they played 102 less games. That’s $300 Million.
2. Then they did not get paid for their TV contract (just 60 games). That’s another $300 Million loss.
So in revenue, they likely lost North of $600 Million, but their operating loss of over $100 Million. Mr. CPA (AC) can break it down further, but you are trying to play checkers when it’s a game of chess.
I look forward to your next post.
We might already have a closer and we just don’t know it YET. Friedman can always wait until the trade deadline if it turns out we don’t have a bone fide closer. I’m not high on the big name free agent relievers like Hendriks, Hand, Yates, Rosenthal, Colome. They all have flaws and they would I assume cost the most among the free agent relievers.
That’s why I’ve suggested some not so big name relievers that actually have equal or better long term stats than those big name guys above. And the ones I’ve suggested besides Doolittle would cost less than the big name guys above.
I may be wrong but I think it would be better to upgrade cheaper even though you might not get a closer and see what happens. Then at the trade deadline if we need a closer then go get one.
Sign Joakim Soria and Pedro Baez, both I assume would cost less than those big name guys in my first paragraph.
You can’t tell me that both Soria and Baez are not upgrades over Floro, Kolarek, Alexander, Cleavinger, Jansen, Kelly, Santana, Sborz, and all the scraps Friedman likes to have around in case one works out.
After signing Soria and Baez, if we still need a closer then trade for one at the trade deadline.
I would say sign free agent Roberto Osuna but he has authority problems.
Baez went to arbitration and beat the Dodgers last year. He almost always melts down in key situations during the playoffs. He wants more money and more years than the Dodgers will pay. He can give u innings in the regular season but no thanks if u r looking toward the playoffs. If he is willing to take less money mb but I am guessing that boat has sailed.
I’m not trying to be argumentive but playoff stats are a small sample unless you are talking about a guy that has been to the playoffs year in and year out that he has racked up a lot of playoff innings.
Soria and Baez are not upgrades over Floro, Kolarek, Alexander, Cleavinger, Jansen, Kelly, Santana, Sborz, and all the scraps Friedman likes to have around in case one works out.
You can’t actually say that with a straight face Mark. Soria and Baez ARE upgrades over those names.
Not being argumentative Eric. I understand why you choose those guys. Herein lies the problem. They have 1 open roster spot, so AF could not sign both of those guys. He also has to address the 3rd base situation. If he does that via the free agent route, he cannot sign either of those pitchers unless they DFA at least 2 players. 2 roster spots will open up when they can place Ferguson and Kahnle on the IL since neither is going to pitch this season. And just so we are clear, I would like to know on what basis are you saying both Baez and Soria are upgrades over the pitchers listed? Just asking. For instance, Kolarek, Alexander, Floro, all have not had the longevity in the league of Baez or Soria, so you cannot compare performances. Santana, Sborz, have even less experience and can only be evaluated on potential. Cleavenger has never pitched above AA. The reason I ask is because if you use the career stats posted by Baseball reference, Soria is better than Jansen in career WAR and ERA, He has been in the league 13 years, and Jansen 11. Jansen has 79 more saves and 145 more strikeouts. Their WHIP’s are not even close. Jansen at 0.915 and Soria at 1.120. Jansen strikes out hitters at a 5-1 ratio, and Soria is close at 4-1. Post season Soria is no where near as effective as Jansen. his post season ERA is 10.13. Granted he has pitched in a lot less post season games than Kenley, but his K to walk ratio in the playoffs is abysmal. 12 K’s and 9 walks. He has zero post season saves, and Jansen has 18. Pedro’s in season stats are way below either of those guys. except in ERA better than Jansen, and WHIP better than Soria. And the kicker is this, Soria will turn 37 years old in May. Jansen does not hit 34 until September. Baez turns 33 in May. So although Soria may be an upgrade over the names Mark threw out there, he is in no way an upgrade over Kenley. Even with his problems, Jansen manages to stay relevant. Should he be the full time closer? Probably not, but neither Soria or Baez are the answer to that problem. The solution might already be on the roster. But signing middle of the pack relievers like Pedro and Joakim does not improve the pen that much.
I’m starting to think DJLM is possible. If he really wants to come to la I think the Dodgers sign him. I don’t think the money will hold it up. AF could figure how to stay under the cap. If he signs probably no turner but he would be a guy who would give u the same type player as turner. Rh hitter patient high performing can handle the big stage. It would not surprise me at all.
It all depends on whether DJLM is playing the same game that Cole did with us last year. He knew he wanted to wind up in a Yankee uniform and just used us to push up his price. Now LeMahieu has both the Dodgers and Jays helping him do that and for all we know, the Mets also.
I think DJ winds up staying with the Yanks, but as long as we’re making “it wouldn’t surprise me” predictions, I’ll go with Kris Bryant. He can play third base, first base and left field and is the righty power bat that AF has been saying he needed. We could still bring back Turner and both of them could get playing time because we all know that Pollock won’t play every game.
Considering what the Cubs just got back for Darvish who has three years of control remaining, Bryant should not require all that much in prospects. Depending on what we give the Cubs, we could insist they take back Kelly’s contract as part of the deal. That would pay for a fair chunk of JT’s contract for next year.
Your probably right with DJLM driving the price up. But he has been out west with Colorado don’t know if that is good or bad. Bryant would probably be a one year addition at what cost? DJLM gives us a very good player who could fill a hole for us. Bryant needs to prove his value as he has been shaky performance wise. If u could get Bryant, sign turner, and stay under the cap AF should go for it. I prefer DJLM because I think he is better than Bryant, would be here for a few years or more, Bryant stop gap, has been injured a lot lately, lose prospects, wait he might be the kind AF is looking for.
I doubt they sign turner if they sign either one. But, after next year if seager goes at least u would have a high quality player from the right side in DJLM. If they sign turner I doubt either one ends up in la. But, I can dream so I am going for DJLM.
I agree. Would rather have DJLM. Just don’t expect him to leave the Yanks. Also don’t expect that AF would give him five years. The Jays might though so I would think they have a better chance than us unless he really loves the west coast.
Hah, just checked and he was born in Visalia (CA) but went to high school near Detroit (which isn’t all that far from Toronto), and he supposedly loves NY. Glad I narrowed that one down.
I did not believe that DJLM would be the hitter he was/is outside of Coors, but I did not factor in Yankee Stadium and the AL East. Last year, check this out:
At Yankee Stadium, DJLM hit .423 with a .481 OB% and a 1.265 OPS!
Everywhere else, he was a good player, but not “otherworldly!” He hit .306 with a .361 OB% and a .759 OPS.
In 2019, he hit .338 with a .392 OB% and a .977 OPS at Yankee Stadium.
Elsewhere, he hit .318 with a .359 OB% and a .818 OPS.
DJLM is only worth $100 million… or maybe $80 million if he played for the Yankees, although he does hit very well in Toronto, Seattle, and Minnesota. If he were to come to LA, he would not hit as he did in NY… which greatly influenced his averages. He would be a very good player, but not the player you have seen in NY and he knows that.
He will sign with the Yankees!
May not be otherworldly, but I will take a hitter who hits over .300 on the road anyday.
Is there anything in particular that makes New York and Colorado a better place to hit for DJLM ?
Colorado: The thin air. Everyone hits better there and it has a huge outfield.
Yankee Stadium:
Left field – 318 ft
Left center – 399 ft
Center field – 408 ft
Right center – 385 ft
Right field – 314 ft
Dodger Stadium:
Left field: 330
Left-center: 385
Center field: 395
Right-center: 385
Right field: 330
Those few feet and expanse in CF is a hitter’s dream.
While I understand hitters benefit from the thin air in Colorado, looking at DJLM spray chart in Yankee Stadium it is easy to understand why AF may have interest in the former Rocky/Yankee. That dude can hit! Given the dimensions you sight, it could be reasonable to conclude that his numbers might improve away from the denser air of New York. The ball flies in SoCal during the summer.
Bryant is still a possibility, but if they sign him, he has to play 3B, so there is no Justin Turner.
I like the idea of tying Joe Kelly to a Bryant deal and paying more in prospects.
How about Kelly, Uceta, Thomas, and Amaya?
They would not have to sign Bryant Mark, simply trade for him. I would not trade Uceta yet. But toss in Mitchell White and we have a deal.
OK, get Hoyer on the phone…
On it…..
With the possibility of losing seager I doubt Amaya is moved in any deal. The Dodgers do not have depth at ss. I am not suggesting that Amaya would take over ss just that he provides depth a couple of years away. Mb lux would move to ss but with his errant throwing I doubt the dodgers view him that way.
Amaya would be moved in a heartbeat if it improved the team.
The thing about Seager is, we have a bunch of money coming off the books after 2021 and we can afford to pay him if we want.
Bellinger still has three more years of control and Buehler has four.
Even if we lose Kershaw our 2022 rotation is strong: Price, Buehler, Urias, May, Gray/Gonsolin.
Price has one year left on his deal, not two. He is a free agent after 2021. Buehler, May, Gray, Gonsolin, Urias. And it is my firm belief they will offer CK a two year deal to end his career as a Dodger.
The things that pass for knowledge I can’t understand.
Price’s contract runs thru 2022. He will be a free agent in 2023.
Not with 4 premier SS being free agents becoming free agents next season. Amaya is nowhere near being MLB ready.
According to the Dodgers top 30 prospects Amaya is listed as number10. Expected arrival 2022. Our depth chart has Mckinstry 3rd in line. I don’t believe he will ever be ss and Taylor will potentially be gone after 2021. He may not be a deal breaker but 2022 is near.
The Dodgers are very high on Amaya. He is the one middle infielder in the organization that figures to stick at SS, but would move to 2B if the Dodgers had a SS (one of the five). He will not be ready by 2022. He had 89 ABs at High A in 2019. Although he did make the 60 man roster for the secondary site. He is not a deal breaker prospect, so if Cincinnati required him, the Dodgers would include him.
Maybe if he had played at AA last year, but he did not. With zero minor league ball his arrival has to be pushed back. So I seriously doubt he is as close as you think he is. And with all those SS being free agents, no way they just give the rook the job. Last rookie handed the job was Seager.
If no Turner, that’s a very fair deal for LA.
2021 starts out with the loss of another prominent sports figure. Paul Westphal who both played for and coached the Suns passed away. He had brain cancer. RIP Paul.
I heard about this today from a close friend. We were all classmates at USC. Paul and Mo Layton were the backcourt duo for the best USC basketball team of all time. In 1970-1971 they were he second best team in the Country. Unfortunately, they were in the same conference as UCLA, and only the conference champion played on into NCAA championships. Ron Riley was the big man in the middle and Chris Schrobilgen and Joe Mackey were on the wing. Those were the best basketball games I ever went to. Although the Lakers left two years before I got to SC, neighbors took me to the Sports Arena a lot, and when I was in college, I went to the Forum a ton (about 7 miles from my dorm and then apartment). But nothing beat my 1970-1971 USC Trojans. I will miss Paul. Prayers for Paul and the Westphal family. RIP Paul.
Regarding Price’s remaining contract years Bear, Baseball Reference shows 2021 and 2022 at $32MM per year with the Dodgers responsible for half of that or $16MM per year.
Go Dodgers! One thing, Max Muncy continues to disapppoint. He may be a strong player but his temperament needs to be contained. Every player makes mistakes, misses a pitch and/or doesn’t get to base, but they don’t throw bats or swear openly. Is he team captain? Hard to believe. Not a good example of a Dodger.
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