I continue to read that AF cannot sign high priced FA because they need to hold money for their prized youngsters: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Julio Urias, and Walker Buehler. AF has set himself up with large contracts coming off the books as these players come into their FA years. Now there is no guarantee that any of the four want to stay with LAD, but there should be sufficient salary space for each of them as long as their demands are not outlandish.

The current Dodger AAV salary structure per Spotrac is as follows:
| Player | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
| – | ||||||
| Clayton Kershaw | Contract | 31,000,000 | FA | |||
| Mookie Betts | Contract | 30,416,667 | 30,416,667 | 30,416,667 | 30,416,667 | 30,416,667 |
| Kenley Jansen | Contract | 16,000,000 | FA | |||
| AJ Pollock | Contract | 12,000,000 | 12,000,000 | 12,000,000 | FA | |
| David Price | Contract | 15,000,000 | 15,000,000 | FA | ||
| Max Muncy | Contract | 8,666,667 | 8,666,667 | FA | ||
| Joe Kelly | Contract | 8,333,333 | FA | |||
| Chris Taylor | Contract | 6,700,000 | FA | |||
| Cody Bellinger | Arb 2 | 13,000,000 | Arb 3 | Arb 4 | FA | |
| Corey Seager | Arb 3 | 12,000,000 | FA | |||
| Walker Buehler | Arb 1 | 2,700,000 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 | Arb 4 | FA |
| Julio Urias | Arb 2 | 2,300,000 | Arb 3 | Arb 4 | FA | |
| Austin Barnes | Arb 2 | 1,500,000 | Arb 3 | FA | ||
| Scott Alexander | Arb 2 | 1.100.000 | Arb 3 | FA | ||
| Dylan Floro | Arb 1 | 1,000,000 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 | FA | |
| Minimum Salary | 17 | 9,775,000 | ||||
| Kenta Maeda | 564,000 | |||||
| – | ||||||
| Total AAV Salaries | 172,055,667 | 66,083,334 | 42,416,667 | 30,416,667 | 30,416,667 | |
| Player Benefits | 15,500,000 | |||||
| Minor League Contracts | 2,500,000 | |||||
| – | ||||||
| Total AAV | 190,066,667 | |||||
| CBT Threshold | 210,000,000 | |||||
| CBT Space | 19,944,000 | |||||
The Dodgers currently are below the CBT threshold by nearly $20MM. There are 8 under contract, 7 with arbitration cases (amounts above estimated by Spotrac), and 17 players calculated at the minimum of $575,000. That threshold savings should be eaten up by JT and one of the 2nd tier relivers. There should be enough wiggle room remaining to acquire another reliever at the trade deadline.
That scenario pre-supposes that Gavin Lux will be the 2B. But I hope that they give the position to Lux fulltime, and let him win it or lose it on his own. The Dodgers depth is good enough to get them into the playoffs even if Lux struggles. Either Lux is going to be an AS or he isn’t. MiLB Player’s of the Year do not come to any one team very often, so he has earned the right to win or lose the job based on his play. Winning the WS should give some comfort for less “panic” in 2021.

Do the Dodgers re-sign JT? His contract 4 years ago was so team friendly that JT was one of the best players dollar for dollar in MLB. Based on his prorata contract in 2020 of $7.1MM (approximately), his four year contract paid out totaled $52.1MM. His fWAR value was placed at $114.5MM. Did JT earn his contract salary? I would conclude that he did. I see no reason why the two camps cannot come together on another team friendly contract. I would think that 2 years at $20MM with a third year option with vesting rights and a reasonable buyout would get the job done. Structure it so that much of the contract is a signing bonus and not subject to reduced salary due to a shortened season. Even as adored in LA as JT is, MLB is a business, and in these MLB economic times, $10MM per year for two years for a 36 year old 3B is not unreasonable. JT is at negative values for running, fielding, and positional. How much longer can his offense keep up his fWAR value? There are many who think he is having issues with catching up to fastballs up in the zone (so does Belli and a lot of batters). JT already looks to be more of a DH than fulltime 3B. How much will the Dodgers earmark for a DH? If no DH in NL for 2021, how much value will JT truly be? Also his character deserves some significant consideration.
Or do the Dodgers say thank you JT but we are moving on to DJLM. I was for DJLM 2 years ago. DJLM is the same age now as was JT when he signed his 4 year contract. Will DJLM age as well as JT did? Better? DJLM’s contract will exceed an amount that AF will not approach, and it will come with a loss of their 2nd draft pick and $500K international bonus $$$, something AF is not going to do. You can criticize that decision, but that is who AF is. I prefer his track record more than anyone on this site.
IMO, I would sign JT and let him share 3B with Rios. If 3B becomes a concern at trade deadline, it can be addressed then, or not.

With the current makeup, I can foresee the following season opening roster (26 man):
Starting Position Players (9):
- 1B – Max Muncy (L)
- 2B – Gavin Lux (L)
- 3B – Justin Turner (R) / Edwin Rios (L)
- SS – Corey Seager (L)
- LF – AJ Pollock (R)
- CF – Cody Bellinger (L)
- RF – Mookie Betts (R)
- C – Will Smith (R)
- DH – Edwin Rios (L) / Justin Turner (R)
Bench (4):
- Backup C – Austin Barnes (R)
- INF/OF – Zach McKinstry (L)
- INF/OF – CT3 (R)
- INF/OF – Matt Beaty (L)
Starting Pitching (5):
- Clayton Kershaw (L)
- Walker Buehler (R)
- David Price (L)
- Julio Urias (L)
- Dustin May (R)
Relievers (8):
- Kenley Jansen (R)
- Tony Gonsolin (R)
- Victor Gonzalez (L)
- Brusdar Graterol (R)
- Dylan Floro (R)
- Adam Kolarek (L)
- Joe Kelly (R)
- Scott Alexander (L) or ???
Does AF non tender Scott Alexander and replace him with a trade acquisition or FA acquisition? Or replace Alexander with Mitch White, Dennis Santana, or Josh Sborz? I like Dylan Floro, but is he a potential non-tender to free up $1MM for another reliever? Do they try and trade Joe Kelly and eat most of his salary? Adam Kolarek is pre-arbitration, so he is going to be slightly more than MLB minimum and will undoubtedly remain a Dodger.
Position player substitutions include Gavin Lux and Zach McKinstry for Joc and Kike’. I do not see a huge difference for the regular season, but both Joc and Kike’ would be missed during the playoffs.
That roster is more than competitive and will come in less than the CBT threshold. As has been discussed any number of times, build a roster to get to the playoffs. The above roster can do that at a high level.
After the 2021 season, Dodger FA include Clayton Kershaw ($31,000,000), Kenley Jansen ($16,000,000), Joe Kelly ($8,333,333), CT3 ($6,700,000), and Corey Seager (arbitration projection at $12,000,000). AAV salary savings total $74,033,333. That is more than enough to sign Seager to a multi-year $150MM+++ contract., Kershaw to another two year contract, and arbitration increases for Belli, Urias, and Buehler. Neither Jansen nor Kelly will be retained. Dodger relievers in the organization should be developed enough to join the roster. With the savings, AF could sign another FA or extend Buehler. Both Belli and Urias are Boras agents, and we know he does not like to extend, but to test FA. Or maybe he will have enough room to buy bad contracts and garner elite prospects (i.e. Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs).

Following the 2023 season, Both Belli and Urias will become FA, and Max Muncy’s, David Price, and possibly JT’s contract(s) will have expired. That will free up more than $50MM additional funds to sign both Urias and Bellinger. Quick math check…Price $15MM, Muncy $8.6MM, JT $10MM (guess), Bellinger $20MM (arbitration estimate), Urias $10MM (arbitration estimate). Eliminate JT and that is still $53.6MM (approximate).

There is bound to be some roster manipulation along the way, including potentially moving one of the “four”. If Boston can move Mookie, AF can move one of the “four”. Cleveland has already said they will be trading Francisco Lindor this winter. I expect the Cubs to move Kris Bryant this winter. Colorado is looking to trade Nolan Arenado and/or Trevor Story this winter. In these times, no player (even the elite of the elite) is guaranteed playing their entire career with one team. I am not predicting it, but just saying there is a possibility. AF could sign a FA this winter, thus exceeding the threshold, and still be in a position to drop down below the threshold next year. I do not see it happening, nor recommending, just noting that it is possible. The Dodgers are not tied to a CBT threshold this winter. But they will not cross it just to show they can.
One of the unknowns is going to be what will the threshold look like after a new CBA. I cannot see the organizations with money to just sit back and not be able to sign FA when the “have nots” are in the fold mode. If Pittsburgh, or Baltimore, or KC, or Miami, or Oakland do not want to pay for elite free agents, why should that preclude LAD or NYY, or NYM, or Philadelphia, or Boston from doing so without penalty. If teams cannot be competitive then they need to sell their team. Another alternative is MLB contraction. There is already MiLB contraction. If Pittsburgh or Baltimore do not care if they have competitive teams under the current salary requirements, fold the teams. Or eliminate the qualifying offer and let the team with the FA loss recoup via draft pick, but do not punish a team that signs a FA with the loss of a draft pick. Does that give big market teams an advantage? Sure, but that did not stop Tampa Bay from getting to the World Series.
MLB contraction of course will never happen. It is more likely that MLB will expand before they contract. But LAD and NYY and Boston and NYM and Philadelphia need to stand up to the have nots and let them know that if they do not want to compete, fine, but do not put restrictions on their pursuit of elite FA.
Bottom line is that AF has orchestrated a scenario that will allow him to field better than competitive teams, fill needs (not wants or luxuries) when necessary, and still have enough $$$ to sign all four of his elite youngsters as they are staggered over the next four years, with more than sufficient contracts coming off the books. He has been an exceptional architect of a Dodgers organization to make a run for a championship over the next decade.

Excellent article. I think we should consider upgrading Beaty & Gonsolin deserves consideration for a bullpen/swingman role.
I don’t know DJLM, but from what I’ve seen of Turner, last gaff aside, I prefer keeping him in the organization as long as he wants to stay, right up to managing in 10 years. He and Rios sharing time at third sounds great to me.
I agree about Lux. Let him know now and start banging him grounders, 100 a day, Sunday’s off, from now until ST. 100 swings a day, against live pitching as often as possible. This was the Larry Bowa secret to success. It works.
I have no idea where the team stands on our other free agents. If those players want to test the market and leave, then I wish them well. We will be able to replace whoever it is that chooses to play elsewhere.
I trust management to get it done. I also take comfort in knowing we are the champions and they are all chasing us. Good luck with that.
The Yankees will re-sign DJLM. Yankee Stadium and the NL East is perfect for him, although I have no doubt he would hit well in LA. Friedman is loathe to lose a pick and International Signing Money. The Yankees need him badly as Judge and Stanton arrive at the ballpark in wheelchairs more often than not!
The Prospect Rankings are going to be WAY skewed this year as we have no way to rank them with any empirical statistics. I remain extremely hopeful on a vaccine in Early 2021 and the FDA and CDC are going to take an even more active role in monitoring the trials and rollout. We may see Spring Training pushed back a month or six weeks, but after that, I think we see something close to normal.
In case you missed it, Alex Cora is back as manager of the Red Sox.
A brutal stat that jumps out at me is the $24+ million that is going to be shelled out for Jansen and Kelly, at best those two guys are spotty effective and spotty disasterous, Dr. Jekyl or Mr. Hyde can show up on any given night. That’s a lot of clams for very undependable performers. I have more concern for the usage of Jansen, he really can’t be put into close in a pressure situation, at best he should be a 5th or 6th inning replacement, only ask him to face three batters, then let him sit down for 3 days (did I mention that is a lot of clams for an undependable performer?)
From the last subject that I didn’t get to respond to before it was closed:
I appreciate that Patch, no worries. You’re an honest poster, I’m an honest poster, we call them as we see them, and I believe we don’t have alternative motives or messages that we are trying to deliver thru the blog (“baseball been berry berry good to Peppy”. For you that remember when SNL was actually about being funny).
Yes, Patch I didn’t think the Dodgers could make it to the end with how they are constructed but they did. Maybe running into the TB pitching staff was just the right medicine for the Dodgers finally winning the last game of the post season. Overall pitching staffs, the Dodgers were superior to the Rays, I’m not sure the Dodgers would have overcome some other experienced pitching staffs in the AL, but hey they did this year and I am thrilled.
Also I’m thrilled that the Dodgers got away from all the “lefty-righty” wholesale changes to the lineup night after night in the playoffs, basically LF was the only real platoon spot in the lineup, the rest of the positions were pretty well set for the run, especially in the WS. BTW, Kike is a playoff monster, you got to have those guys to win it all, some guys just show up in the biggest moments, Kike is one of those guys (anyone remember the three bombs in the deciding game that he put the Cubs away with a few years ago?)
Relievers are notoriously fickle.
All we can hope for is that both Kelly and Jansen have one good year in the last 3 and that is 2021.
… and maybe I will look like Brad Pitt too!
All we can do is hope… because they ain’t getting traded!
BTW, I am not holding my breath!
Jansen and Kelly are definitely not tradeable, unless the Dodgers agree to pay all the salaries and throw in an additional $24M for the teams that will take them, lol.
Mark, I do see a little resemblence to Jeffrey Goines in 12 Monkees, maybe it’s the eyes, lol
It seems a lot of fans don’t remember pre- Jansen Dodgers bull pen. Jansen has been the most reliable piece of the pen for over a decade. Lately he hasn’t been what we had grown to expect but I still see him for what he’s meant to me for the part he played with the successes the team has given us fans. The role of closer is a job for perfection but is there such thing? Jansen through my lens is great.
It’s about “What Have You Done For Me Lately”. Jansen saving a bunch of games in past years does not help you next year, the past saves are just on paper, no longer in real time. I liked Jansen for many seasons, the problem is he does not have the juice going forward, no matter how much he helped us in his glory days.
Not without some serious reconstructive surgery you won’t. Yep, relievers are fickle. But Jansen was not all bad. He had a few bad games, and made most of us pull out what remaining hair we had, but he still was effective and got the save most of the time. Kelly, pitched exactly 10 innings. He was either suspended or hurt the rest of the time. At least he got a little payback against the Stros, and we got a great T shirt out of it. Problem with Jansen was when he did melt down, it was spectacular and memorable. He was ok in the wild card, sucked against the Pads, did well against Atl, and then stunk up the series. So goes the life of Kenley Jansen. The one reason I feel if they target anyone in free agency it should be someone like Hendricks. A lock down reliever. Oh Jeff, you said Urias and Belli are free agents after 22. That should be 24.
I have faith that Jansen will have a bounce back, contract year. He still hit 96 occasionally late in the season and he had another messed up pre-season v2 when he reported late after getting the covid. I have similar optimism in the case of Kelly. They changed him from the high four seamer and 12-6 curve that dominated the ’18 World Series to pitching low in the zone sinker baller with a power curve. I’m predicting it all come together next year for both of them. Gotta go, late for my optometrist appt.
Aside from the fun it brings us when we sign important free agents or make a trade to obtain a great player, this team really doesn’t need much.
That’s a very strong roster you’ve shown above AC. Just imagine if Belli and Muncy have their normal years and Price pitches decently.
With all the relief pitchers on the market I would prefer to sign one of the better ones (Hendriks is probably more than AF wants to spend, but there are many other possibilities) and use Alexander’s spot in your projected roster for that arm.
One correction to your numbers shown up top: In your 2023 column under “Total AAV Salaries” it looks like you’ve misplaced a comma. I don’t think Andrew is prepared to spend 422 million in salaries.
No misplaced comma. An extra 2. But fixed. With the software platform, I cannot line up Excel Spreadsheets. I need to create tables, and hard code each of the cells including the totals. The table creation does not have a calculation capability, unless Mark is not telling me about it.☺
Something your agent should demand when you sign your next contract with Mark. 🙂
Our bullpen as is I don’t believe is good enough to close out tough playoff games. We need another late inning closer type and there is a lot available on the market. At 50 cents on the dollar! I’d be shocked if AF doesn’t sign one. And a key this offseason will be Graterol and May improving their sliders. Too many spinners this year. Then Graterol’s K rate goes up and he could be our closer.
I don’t see DJ as an option. I would think he would get 4/20 or in that range, and he doesn’t really fill a position of need. We have two good 2nd base options. It really is time to see what Lux can do at the MLB level, and if he falters, CT3 plays a decent second base and is a dependable hitter. Of course you would need someone to fill his utility role in the OF.
“Following the 2022 season, Both Belli and Urias will become FA, and Max Muncy’s, David Price, and possibly JT’s contract(s) will expire. That will free up more than $50MM additional funds to sign both Urias and Bellinger. Quick math check…Price $15MM, Muncy $8.6MM, JT $10MM (guess), Bellinger $20MM (arbitration estimate), Urias $10MM (arbitration estimate). Eliminate JT and that is still $53.6MM (approximate).”
One thing that I note about this is that you’re assuming Muncy doesn’t get re-signed. He probably won’t, and he had an off year this last year, but what if he continues to produce like he did in 18/19 and this year’s playoffs? Do the Dodgers actually have a 1rst baseman to replace him? Hoese perhaps? … and if Muncy does continue to produce in the 3-5 annual WAR level, I would think he would be due a 4/15-20 contract on the open market at 32 years old. He’s similar to JT in this respect. I would think there’s a possibility he gets re-resigned by the club. He kind of flies under the radar because he doesn’t put up really gaudy numbers, but he averaged 5 WAR in 18/19 and, as he showed in the playoffs, he’s a BB machine.
I don’t really see the Dodgers paying Kenley and Kelly that much money as necessarily a bad thing. Look at the glass half full. Their salaries are coming off the books after next year, so that’s another 25 mil off the books the team can use to pay someone else. People keep on harping on the signings that don’t work out. “OMG, we had to pay Scott Kazmir $$$$!!”
You have to look at the job of GM like being a venture capitalist or a fund manager. Not all of the investments pan out. That’s just the law of averages. As long as you’re not committing money for really long term contracts that will keep you hamstrung, you can afford a few missteps. We’re paying Kenley for a year or two of him in decline, but we bought the game’s top closer for a while, and Kelly was one of the better relievers on the market at the time. They were still decent signings, or at least not dumb signings.
I was doing some math and contract estimations each year to the year 2024. My rough calculator estimations of what I thought Urias and others would get if the Dodgers signed him, and factoring in Buehler’s estimated ARB value, I got 194 mil. That’s 16 under the current CBT. My concern would be Buehler’s FA value in 2025, which I would assume would be 30+ mil. As is stands right now, the Dodgers wouldn’t be able to afford that with the financial commitments to their core players and still stay under the CBT.
By 2025 the CBT should be higher (if it still exists in its current form). AF should be able to work around that
I agree with SoCalGrinch that the CBT would be higher with the new CBA. I’m not sure it’s 100% certain it will even be the same as it is right now as far as whether or not it’s a hard cap (probably not) or weather the penalties will be as harsh as they are now.
As far as a replacement for Muncy, I’m wondering if you forgot about Rios, or just have some sort of bias. If you compare their stats at the same age, Rios is far superior. If you compare their minor league numbers, same story. Rios has not had any sort of opportunity to play regularly, so I will be interested to see what he can do if given the runway that others have had.
BTW – I’m not a huge Muncy fan and I have followed Rios through the minors and was always enamored with him. So, I freely admit to having bias towards Rios. 😉
I guess I just assumed Rios would be slotted for 3rd once JT leaves for good. Are there plans to move him to 1rst? He’s not a great defensive 3rd baseman. Apparently neither is Cody Hoese.
Rios can certainly break out. He hasn’t yet, although he showed glimpses this year. He doesn’t walk very much. That’s one thing that Muncy does very well, and it reflects in his OBP and his wRC+. I get that Muncy isn’t very sexy as a player and doesn’t have that “light tower power” of Rios, but he put up better numbers than Paul Goldschmidt in 18, and had almost as good a year in 19. 5 WAR is 5 WAR. That’s what he averaged for those two years.
We’ll see how Muncy does in 2021. If, in the next couple of years he plays like he did in 18/19, then you could make a case that the Dodgers should give him an offer like they did JT. If he plays more like he did in 20, then it’s Rios or Hoese time.
Gotcha, the other corner is Hoese who is apparently splitting time at SS 50/50.
Excellent column, Jeff. Very detailed.
I’m keeping Justin Turner, maybe a two year deal. No doubt he wants to stay. Still waiting for clarity on the Dodgers moving forward, expecting an interview with Andrew Friedman soon. They are probably still assessing what 2021 is going to look like, not only from a team perspective, but financially as well. Yet they gave Mookie Betts a massive contract in the midst of the pandemic so who knows where this all leads?
The starting rotation looks pretty set with some depth to it, including the return of David Price, so my guess they may try to improve the bullpen, always an area of concern. So no Trevor Bauer.
They lost two Cy Young finalists and still won the World Series.
I agree on Gavin Lux, put him out there and let him play. MLB analysts still think he has huge upside.
The team is already loaded and really doesn’t have any real holes. Can more farm guys step up in ’21?
But I do think they will miss Joc and Kike.
Guessing they stay under the cap and not pursue a impact player unless they find something in trade that works. Maybe a bullpen pitcher or two.
No doubt AF will seek opportunity to improve the roster. Look for him to explore the released player market, someone who may want be on a championship quality and willing to take a deal. That will be an interesting market and something to pay close attention.
Ah…nevermind about the last paragraph in my post. I was doing it in my head and forgot to subtract what I thought Buehler’s ARB value would be in 2024. I think with that, signing Buehler to an AAV something north of 30 mil is doable in 2025 while staying under the CBT. Still, I think you need a cushion to account for ARB raises for guys like Lux if they really shine, or to have the option to sign a moderately expensive Treinan or Kelly.
That’s actually really impressive if you think about it … that AF is able to pull that off – sign all of our key homegrown stars and still stay under the CBT.
And that was an especially good column, Jeff. I was going to request you post an article detailing current and future financial commitments. I’ve been wondering about that and have just been too lazy to do the research myself.
In contrast to sbuffalo I would advocate to sign Bauer . He is looking for a one year contract and that would be just fine . That would give us the best rotation in the game by far, maybe the best in the history of the game.
Bring in Kendriks to close.
Dodgers have a golden opportunity to win again in 2021 and those two guys could do that for us. Imagine a playoff series and we sent out CK, WB, TB and DP plus having JU and DM waiting to relief.
LIneup even without JT should ensure us scoring enough runs.
Yes, financially we probable go over the luxury tax but if winning another WS it is worth the money.
Go for it, AF.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bauer will get a 4 or 5-year deal. I don’t care what he said in the past.
Agreed. And he now says he is not adverse to returning to the Reds. I do not think AF is even going to kick the tires on him. Relievers is where the focus will be. If I see a need outside of relief pitching, it is a RH power bat. Bringing JT back helps that a little, but they still are lefty heavy.
The Reds don’t have enough money for Bauer.
He’s going to the Yanks or Angels or possibly even the Blue Jays or White Sox who might decide to throw around some money and who could both use a starter like Bauer. I think it will be one of those four teams.
I’m going to add the Phillies to that list.
You might be right, but you notice I said he was not adverse to returning, not that it was a lock. They offered him the QO, so they could go a little above that on a one year deal if that is what he wants. With all the bad contracts on the Angels, i do not think Moreno goes really high for any free agent. The Angels need pitching, but they are not going to break the bank to get it. And considering all of the uncertainty about how next year will play out, I do not think FA’s are going to get as much money as a lot of people think they will. I do not see any player getting a deal that averages over say 25 million a year. Considering the loss of revenue, and the fact that they do not even know if they will be allowed to have butts in the seats next year, any outrageous spending by any team at this point is not a very good idea.
If Bauer agrees to a one-year deal it won’t be for a little over the QO amount, it would be somewhere in the high 20’s or low 30’s.
Even for a 4-5 year deal he’ll be in the mid 20’s.
Just my opinion. I think the top three guys (Springer, Realmuto, Bauer) will still get paid. It’s the mid roster guys who are going to really get hit hard this winter.
Kendriks>??? Hendricks of the A’s, No on Bauer. They do not need a one year fill in.
I do not see TB as a one year fill in. I see this guy as someone who would give us one of the best rotations in the history of this game and a HUGE shot to repeat as champions . I am sure TB wants to win a WS ring and the Dodgers would give him an excellent shot at it. Since he himself said he only wants to sign a 1 year deal it would be an ideal situation for both sides.
AFter that we can look to 2022 and byond.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Did you consider DodgersRams, just curious, lol
I think it was Hawkeye who mentioned the joke of Fernando Tatis, Jr. winning the Silver Slugger for SS. I could not agree more.
I think most Dodger fans would rank Corey Seager over Fernando Tatis, Jr. I would also suspect that most Padre fans would rate Tatis, Jr. over Seager. Offensively they are almost identical.
Seager – .307/.358/.585/.943, 152 OPS+: 65 hits, 12 doubles, 1 triple, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 17BB vs 37K
Tatis, Jr. – .277/.366/.571/.937, 155 OPS+, 62 hits, 11 doubles, 2 triples, 17 HR, 45 RBI, 27BB vs 61 K
Now compare that to Trea Turner:
.335/.394/.588/.982, 157 OPS+, 78 hits (Led MLB), 15 doubles, 4 triples (Led NL), 12 HR, 41 RBI, 22BB vs 36K
How is Trea Turner not the winner of the Louisville Silver Slugger for SS? If the award goes to the player with the most HRs at that position, then that criterion should be clearly stated. That is the only hitting metric where Tatis Jr., was better than Turner. With Seager, Seager was better at BA/SLG/OPS, hits, doubles, BB/K ratio. Tatis Jr. was better OBP, triples, HR. But both are less favorable than the offensive numbers for Trea Turner, who I voted All MLB SS over the ChiSox Tim Anderson. What can I say, I am an NL guy.
I agree! My immediate reaction was to deem Corey Seager more deserving; however, when looking at the overall numbers Trea Turner definitely had the better overall season.
Tatis got off to a hot start but cooled off dramatically towards the end of the season. Tatis had the higher WAR of the three, but that is likely skewed due to the heavy defensive value weighed by WAR.
Certainly a head scratcher!
Agree, Tatis looks more like the Bronze Medalist rather than the Gold Medalist among SS.
Why the hell did Machado win the Silver Sluggard for 3B, was he that dominant? I didn’t like him as a Dodger and glad we didn’t sign him, signing him most likely would have aced us out of the Mookie. Mookie is a much better addition to the team and the clubhouse, plus he sports that goofy little medallion on his gold chain.
According to Gurnick, Turner issued an apology. Gurnick also said MLB closed the investigation and no fine or suspension has been issued..hmmm….if true it makes him much more attractive to other teams knowing he will not be lost for any period of time.
MLB also acknowledged they were complicit through protocol holes. Bottom line, both JT and MLB were wrong and MLB and MLBPA did not want a fight over this. WS is over, time to move on.
Glad to see MLB take some ownership on this issue. After all, Turner contracted COVID during their watch. The question that MLB ultimately would have to answer is: how did a player(s) get sick while in their “bubble”?
Glad to see MLB let this become a non-issue.
Go Dodgers!
Whether he caught Covid or not is still in question. He tested positive, but a lot of people have been a symptomatic and have not gotten sick. He is in quarantine with his family.
I heard he was going to be flogged and suspended in a cage outside the walls at Dodger Stadium for the period of 30 days (wearing a mask of course), must have been a rumor.
Steve Cohen is officially the new owner of the NYM. It did not take long as Brodie Van Wagenen and entire front office has been let go. Now will Brodie try to stay with a MLB club or go back to being a top level agent?
I like Cody Bellinger a lot but when you consider the offensive woes he has experienced stemming from the holes in his swing, I can’t help but wonder whether the Dodgers would be better off investing longterm on a player like Francisco Lindor. I am not saying we should trade Bellinger, merely considering whether we should be looking at Cody as a complimentary piece rather than a foundational player.
Cody had offensive woes last year with a 789 OPS, but we should invest long term on a player like Francisco Lindor who had a 750 OPS last year?
Yeah, move Lux to CF and trade Bellinger for Glyber Torres.
It’s just hot stove league amusement so consider your suspenders snapped.
Remember when Corey Seager had a 817 OPS this time last year and everyone wanted to trade him? Why do people still want Francisco Lindor after he OPSd 750 and wasn’t coming off of hip and TJ surguries?
So far, CODY has monster years every other year. Watch out for 2021,
Corey just needed time to fully recover from his surgeries, he is now and wow!
Francisco Lindor provides above average production with his bat while contributing at an elite level defensively. While Corey Seager may not be a liability with the glove, he is subpar subpar when compared to Lindor. Corey Seager’s value lies in his bat more so than with his glove. This is why I can see a scenario where the Dodgers extend Seager and move him to the hot corner. Similar to what the Padres did with Manny Machado. This is not a knock on Seager; rather, that the team improves dramatically on defense when we are able to replace Turner’s declining glove with a much younger, more athletic Corey Seager and subsequently bring in an elite defender to take over at short stop without losing much at the plate.
In terms of Bellinger, as in the case of all players, it is a risky proposition to stand pat hoping a player is able to overcome its shortcomings. If Cody is able to correct his swing and ends up putting up elite numbers once again, I trust Andrew Friedman will figure out a way to make cap space to sign him longterm. However, no one can reasonably predict whether Bellinger will be able to replicate the numbers he put up in 2019. Even the Bellinger of his MVP season struggled after the league adjusted to him during the second half of the season.
In order to provide a better picture of what I believe could happen, given Friedman’s well documented interest in Lindor, I can see the Dodgers potentially fielding the following in 2021:
C – Smith/Barnes
1B – Muncy
2B – Lux/Taylor
SS – Lindor
3B – Seager
LF – Pollock
CF – Bellinger
RF – Betts
DH – Turner (if DH implemented)
I think the Dodgers have the prospect capital to make a move for Lindor. I believe the question is not going to be whether there is going to be interest, it is going to be whether the Dodgers are willing to pay the price.
I think there is no way they get Lindor. Especially in his walk year. Now, they might consider chasing him in the free agent market, but if you think AF is going to unload the amount of talent it would take to pry him from the Indians, I think you are in a dream fantasy world. On Bellinger. The guy is a hard worker, and he listens to his coaches. They will no doubt discuss his problems with pitches on the inside. Cody might not be a 300 hitter, but he is more than capable of 275 plus with 40 homer power. Muncy did not adjust to what they were doing to him either, and his sub .200 average reflected that. He did avail himself well come playoff time. I think they both are much better in 21. Both should be well over 30 homers again. As for Lindor, I hope he enjoys playing in New York because I think the Mets make a major move to get him.
Andrew Friedman acquired Betts on a “walk year.” The same could be said of Darvish and Machado. In the case of Betts, I recall reading/hearing similar sentiments before the trade rumors started coming out; however, players on “walk years” did not keep the Dodgers from making the move(s) and I certainly do not expect that to change moving forward.
I am a firm believer that the past is the best predictor of the future. While I like the idea of trading for Lindor, my stance mostly stems from Friedman’s prior interest in the player. As some may recall, he made a strong push for Lindor before eventually pursuing Betts.
I can see the Dodgers taking a flyer on any player that falls within their budget if the front office perceives it gives the organization a distinct advantage of winning another WS title.
This front office can be cold and calculated. I mean that as a compliment!
1. Maybe you have sources I do not, but it was THE MEDIA who linked Lindor with the Dodgers. AF will never say that and he will ALWAYS be in on every player… to drive the price up!
2. The past is a predictor of the future. If Friedman makes another trade as he did for Betts, Machado, or Darvish, the Dodgers will no longer be a TOP TEN farm system, which is precisely WHY he will not do it.
3. If he did it THIS OFFSEASON, it the same as walking up to Corey Seager and slapping him in the face and saying “You are no MVP and no team will win the World Series with you at SS!”
Anyone who trades for Lindor with Seager on the team is dumber thn a bag of hammers… or smoking something that is way too good!
I agree this front office will do what it takes to win.
I’m not sure comparing an off season trade for Lindor with the Darvish and Machado trades is a valid comparison. Those were both mid season trades to fill a gaping hole in the team. In Machado’s case, a season ending injury to Seager.
Linder right now doesn’t fit that situation as SS is currently a position of strength for the Dodgers.
Betts was a chance to get a generational talent. History suggests that AF fully intended to use that time to sign him for the rest of his career. Lindor is good, but not that good.
Lindor is no Betts. Yes, AF had an interest. Means nothing. Machado and Darvish were exceptions. They were mid season pick ups that had virtually no chance of being resigned by the Dodgers. And consider this, no one even knows if fans are going to be allowed back in the parks yet. Picking up Lindor’s contract and hoping that Seager moves to third quietly? Please, there is going to be a problem there one way or the other. AF might have the prospects, but if you look at what he gave up for Mookie, and then think he is going to trade some more top of the line talent for what most likely be a rental? Nope, not happening. And it is not about the money. The Dodgers can afford to go over the CBT for one year because they have so much salary going away next year. There are too many good SS available after the 2021 season for him to make that kind of deal for prospects. AF loves his farm kids. As good as Verdugo and Downs were, there are plenty like them down on the farm. And no one knows how committed AF is to Seager. Lindor might be the better SS, but Corey is a home grown hero now. Hard to move someone like that from their pedestal. Indians are going to want quite a haul for Lindor. And AF is not the only interested party. I still think he goes east. Mets can offer him a lot of money. Yanks could use him too.
What makes this article so useful is that we can now visualize the financial expenditures by the Dodgers over the next five years, so this allows us to see who we can afford and how much of an impact it has on the total AAV. Now, it’s likely the CBT won’t be 210, but it’s still clear is that the Dodgers can’t afford both Seager and Lindor. It’s either/or. …both financially, but also because they play the same position.
With all of this Lindor talk, does it occur to everyone how much he will cost? If we trade for Lindor, I assume the plan is to trade Seager now rather than wait till he walks and get no return. And what kind of package of prospects is it going to take to get Lindor? Cleveland is going to want a king’s ransom. Or maybe we just wait till Lindor and Seager are both FAs and just make a bid?
Ok, so what if we get outbid in the Lindor sweepstakes by someone willing to spend stupid money? Baseball GMs are getting smarter, but there are still a few Arte Moreno’s out there willing to spend irrationally and screw everything up. At that point, team Seager will have already been alienated and that ship would have sailed.
Absolute worst case scenario: Dodgers trade for Lindor by giving up our best prospects. We don’t sign JT and move Seager to 3rd to make room for Lindor. In 2022 Seager signs with someone else. Lindor also signs somewhere else. So when we begin the season in 2022 we don’t have JT, we don’t have our top prospects, we don’t have Lindor and we don’t have Seager.
Ok, yeah…Lindor is a great defensive shortstop and all, but are we really thinking this through all the way.
What does anyone think it would cost to get Lindor?
It starts with May and Lux or Hoese and more!
Indians need outfielders, pitching, and would need a replacement SS. Lux would fill the SS hole. Then they would undoubtedly want a good young starter, and May fits that need. Dodgers not so deep in MLB ready outfielders. You could probably offer them a couple of the kids in the minors. But they are not going to want say, Pollock. They might want one of LA’s young catchers too. No, I do not think AF is going to pay the price the Indians will ask for. The need on the Dodgers is not at SS. Seager is more than capable. Right now, they need to resign or replace Turner, and get some serious back end help in the pen. Those are the major areas of concern at the moment. Not SS.
But what about Seager’s dWAR? His UZR/150 for 2020 was -17.4 for heaven’s sakes!
I’m kidding…but Badger does make a point about Seager’s defense. He was actually very good in 2017. He’s slipped defensively, and although some of that was due to injury, he wasn’t very stellar in 2020. I think the Dodgers can accept that his defense has lapsed somewhat, but the team is starting to collect players who aren’t very good defensively.
The Dodgers could have an infield of JT/Rios, Seager, Lux and Muncy. None of those guys, at this stage of their careers, are particularly good defensively. The Dodgers loved Kike b/c of his D, and I think AF values defense, and it was only a year or two ago when the Dodgers were perhaps the top defensive team in baseball. It matters, especially in the bottom of the 9th in a world series game when muffed ball or bad throw instantly loses a game.
No way I would deal May. No way.
Ruiz, Gray and Lux would be my offer IF the Dodges really would dive into Lindor. I would not.
If they make a trade I would go after Arenado .
As I already said: Sign Bauer and Hendriks (sorry for the typo in my previous post, @Bear) to the superb nucleus we already have and we have a helluva shot at repeating. What we never done before.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Dodgers just won a World Series with Corey Seager at SS and are the Favorites to win the next one.
Man, crack is bad!
Slight correction, it’s “World Series MVP Cory Seager”
Finally, Andrew Friedman’s Plan was/is to build a sustainable team who can win-year-over-year. You have to keep your Farm System strong in order to do that!
Agreed. All the Lindor talk is just that, talk. NO rumors of such or any kind of substance to it at all. Only fans are even bringing it up. When Cleveland said the other day that he would be traded this winter, the Dodgers were not even mentioned as one of the possible destinations.
Twice this week while driving home from work, I heard 2 different commentators on Serius XM say “How do we get Mike Trout into the playoffs?” One mentioned that Mike had only played in 3 playoff games in his career…… The only thing I could think of was for the Angels to trade him to the Dodgers.