Maybe you missed it, but the 2020 Dodgers are the World Champions. Yes, by golly, they won it again after just 32 short years. It wasn’t a fluke and going into 2021, they are the odds on favorite to win it all again.
“Hey You’all, watch this: I’ll blow up the team and make dope-fiend trades just because I can”, said the stupid Redneck! “I’ll do it out by my new swimmin’ pool! Let’s make some trades…”
I hate to break the news to you, but you are not going to see a lot of movement by the Dodgers and I will add this caveat: “If you thought of it – It probably ain’t happening!” Then someone will say “Hey Timmons, didn’t you used to dream up some wild dumba$$ trades?” The answer is yes, but that was when the Dodgers NEEDED to do something. They don’t need to do anything now! Nothing. ZERO! ZIP! NADA!
As great as Justin Turner has been for them, they will not break the bank to sign him. I see a one-year… maybe two-year deal at $8 to $10 Million per year. He’s 36! That’s it! This is 20COVID. Things have changed. Anyone of the Dodgers free agents could be back… but most likely won’t be back. Move along, there’s nothing to see here folks.
Mike Trout, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer, Gylber Torres, Chris Archer, Josh Hader and Chris Bryant all have the same odds of being a Dodger next year – ZERO! You don’t bring in Lindor and piss off your MVP SS and you don’t put the best defensive SS in baseball at 2B.
The 2021 version of the Dodgers needs very little in the form of change. A new closer would be nice – Jeff Dominique has suggested Trevor May (and I agree) but at what price? He made $2.25 Million last year. What about 2 Years/$10 Million? If not, walk away – there will be plenty of arms available at the trade deadline next year.
There is no need to make any dope-fiend moves. Even if Turner doesn’t re-sign and all of the Free Agents sign elsewhere, the options are plentiful. Consider this:
- Zach McKinstry becomes a LH Kike Hernandez
- Brett de Geus takes Pedro Baez’ spot in the bullpen
- Kody Hoese takes Justin Turners place
- Alex Wood really didn’t have a “place” until the World Series but you could do worse than Scott Alexander
- Mitch White takes Blake Trienen’s spot
Cody Thomas, Keibert Ruiz, Michael Busch, and Gavin Lux could all be ready in 2021. So could Bobby Miller, Michael Grove, Landon Knack, and Clayton Beeter.
The Dodgers have three positions that are question marks, but they also have plenty of solutions:
- 2B – McKinstry, Smith, Lux, Muncy, and Busch
- 3B – Hoese, Smith, McKinstry, Mann, Muncy, and Rios
- LF – Lux, Pollock, Thomas, McKinstry, and Rios
Francisco Lindo is not coming to the Dodgers. Mookie Betts did that! The Dodgers farm system is loaded, with guys like McKinstry, Hoese, Busch, Mann, Lux, Thomas, Ruiz, and others. A couple may be All-Stars. Most are Role Players!
The Team’s Offensive Core
Mookie Betts – He had a good year in 2020, but if you know baseball, you are waiting for that MVP year. You know, when he hits .330 with 35 HR and 100 RBI from the leadoff spot. He’s the best right fielder in baseball. It will happen…
Corey Seager – This is another guy who could win an MVP. He has already won the World Series MVP. Depending upon what happens over the winter, Corey could hit second or third. While not elite, his defense is underrated.
Max Muncy – Max Muncy hit 37 HR in 2018 and 2019. 2020 was an off-year by his standards, but in the Postseason, his OB% was .438, with a .904 OPS and he drove in 14 Runs. Give him another year and his defense will be near the top. His glove is much underrated.
Will Smith – I believe he on his way to having an All-Star bat. Most likely he stays at catcher, but if Ruiz has kept up his growth and there is a need, Will could play 2B or 3B. I have not heard this from the organization. This is just my idea… so don’t put much stock into it.
Cody Bellinger – Former MVP who has elite defense in CF. He had an off-season, but you absolutely know he will work on his swing all winter and come back to compete for another NL MVP. He is THAT guy!
AJ Pollock – He had a solid season, hitting .276 with a .881 OPS. In a 162 game season, that’s a pace for 48 HR and 102 RBI. He hit .345 against LHP and his defense in LF is above average. HE should have another good season or two left. He is best in a platoon role as in 9 years, he has only recorded more than 450 AB’s only once. Get him his 400 AB’s and find a LH platoon partner.
Austin Barnes – Beloved as a receiver, but underrated as a hitter, Austin’s intangibles are off-the-charts. This guy plays a critical role for the Dodger pitching staff.
Chris Taylor – Going into 2021, he is a man without a position and maybe the hire apparent to Kike Hernandez (I am going to miss Kike). He can play 2B or LF at a high level and fill in just about anywhere else. Highly underrated, he hit .270 with a .366 OB% and OPS’ed .842. As a starter or a utilityman, he is solid.
The Up-and-Coming Dodgers
This has to start with Gavin Lux, who has great potential to yet be tapped. I could think of nothing better than to partner him with AJ in LF and earn his playing time. I would keep my eye on Cody Thomas as a possible successor to Joc Pederson. There is a remote possibility Joc comes back.
Next, we have Kiebert Ruiz whose bat-to-ball skills are legendary. Is he ready for the Show? Then there is Kody Hoese, who just might have that right-handed bat the Dodgers so desperately need. I would love to pencil him in at 3B, but Edwin Rios is not to be doubted. He has OPS’ed .972 in his short MLB career and has 12 HR in 123 AB’s! 2021 could be his “breakout” year. His “Light Tower Power” is among the top 1% in baseball!
Mike Busch has an elite hit-tool and is turning heads with better than expected play at 2B. Like the rest of the youngsters, including Lux, he will have to earn his playing time, but I expect at least two, maybe three of these guys will step up and do just that. This is the fun of Spring Training and I hope we get to see it in its entirety! Don’t forget about Zach McKinstry who may be the new LH Swiss Army Knife.
Logical Conclusion
Andrew Friedman will follow his plan. He will seek value where he can get it, not overpay and grow from within… this includes trying to lock up his core players: Seager, Buehler, and Bellinger. If Andrew Friedman does nothing, including not signing any of their own free agents, the Dodgers are still likely to be the odds-on-favorites to win the 2021 World Series.
You can bet your sweet bippy that AF will not stand pat, but I doubt that anyone who wrote or reads this has a clue what he will do. Enjoy the ride! I remain optimistic that well will have a season in 2020. For those of you who care, here is the NY TIMES CORONAVIRUS VACCINE TRACKER. This is not political, but rather about the reality of a vaccine to save our people, our way of life, and most importantly, the 2021 baseball season! I remain very optimistic! Keep the discussion to baseball and leave the political aspects out!
There’s some good analysis right there. The only thing I don’t agree with is Hoese being ready this year. You never know though. Everyone develops differently. I think Joc’s gonna move on. He’ll get an opportunity for more ABs with another team and will probably be paid accordingly. I think JT is a reasonable bet to return if Hoese is really this close. Rios can rest JT quite a bit. But, the ideal fit would be DJLM who can play 2b and 3b allowing further development of Rios and Lux.
I really like RC Dodgers list of relievers from yesterday. Grab two or three of them and we’re good to go.
I like the premise of this article very much but Hoese, Busch, Miller, Grove, Knack, Beeter & Mann are not ready for the show.
McKinstry has an inside track on a bench spot and some of your bullpen names could stick [de Geus], but those guys above still need seasoning.
Some FA patchwork will occur. Prices will be affordable.
So, what are you basing your opinion on the players you listed? You could be totally correct in your assessment, but what information do you have to make such a analysis? There was minimal information from the off site location where these players spent the season. I’m curious on your inside sources. Thanks.
The fact they haven’t even reached the AA level yet, which is usually the proving ground for prospects. Give them another full year of development.
The Dodgers are not going to bring in DJLM. He would cost too much. Money will be saved to sign Beuhler, Seager and Bellinger. The Dodgers believe in their farm kids anyway. Too many farm kids available to play second base.
I still look for JT to return. I think your figure of $8M/ is about right. I don’t see anyone else offering him significantly more money than that.
I would add CT3 to your potential 2B solutions. I would lay 60/40 odds he is the 2021 opening day starter at 2B.
I like your Lux in LF idea splitting time w Pollock.
It will be an interesting off season. I don’t expect much movement, particularly with the Dodgers.
I remember that in the winter of 2014, I wrote that Corey Seager was ready and anointed him the Dodgers’ SS. Most fans disagreed! Of course, AF went out and got Jimmy Rollins, but at the end of the season, Corey took the position… for good and was the ROY in 2016.
Again, in the Winter of 2017, I said that I believed Cody Bellinger was ready. However, that was met with a lot of skepticism especially since he was blocked by A-Gon. Cody took over 1B on April 25th and was the ROY!
I am stopping short of predicting the same for Kody Hoese, simply because I was not able to watch him play like I did Corey and Cody in their final Minor League Year, but after reading what Gavin Lux said about Hoese earlier, I asked around and the people I have talked to regard him as the Dodger’s #1 Prospect now and likely ready for the show in 2021.
Lux is a shortstop with the following grades: speed 60, arm 50, defensive 55. Those grades are from shortstop, the most difficult position facing the plate. With that, he can play anywhere as his hit tool is his greatest strength. The Dodgers just need to make a decision. Who knows, maybe the decision is to use him a trade.
I already posted Hoese’ grades. He’s no shortstop.
It is November and Covid has never been worse. We are in fact at the moment losing this battle. With that said, pitchers and catchers report in about a hundred days. Seriously, what are the odds this thing is under control by then?
I deleted the political part rather than delete the whole post.
This is not political, but you are trying to make it so.
I won’t fall for it!
For a guy with an ego the size of yours Mark you sure can be petty.
One inch into politics soon becomes a mile.
Zero Tolerance!
You da man, Mark. Stick to your guns, there are some that love to pick a fight and provoke, not thought but rather discord. Misery loves company, thanks for not allowing that company into the blog.
Zero Tolerance. Yep.
Both Mark and Jeff have clearly stated, on numerous occasions, that there is to be no politics on this site, and that contributors here are to be civil to each other. Although it doesn’t need explanation, it has been explained why they have this policy. Nearly everyone understands this and respects it – and respects Mark and Jeff, and respects each other.
It’s worked. The site has grown. It’s attracted smart and insightful posters and writers. It allows diverse people to talk about the one subject that brings people together – that unites rather than divides, which is something we need a whole lot more of these days.
Yet you persist. Endlessly.
What makes you think you have the right to destroy what someone else has created and built?
If you think I overstate that, just look at what happened to Scott’s site. I saw some of the most vile accusations imaginable, by you and others, and that place just turned into a cesspool. Now it’s dead.
As far as I can tell, and I don’t go back as far as you and Mark, the whole root of the conflict is politics. And after all that bad blood, after the extending of olive branches and reconciliation, here you are again, doing the same exact thing. It’s like you’ve learned nothing.
And don’t bring up your “speaking truth to power” canard.
Mark, you sound like the GM of the Tampa Bay Rays.
I love home grown players but also understand that prospects are trade assets as much as they are payroll minimizers.
I already said I am ready to take a chance on Hoese being ready for 2021 and would play him at either first or third.
Yes, Pollock had a great 2020 season and has either solidified is spot in LF or has for the first time since signing with the Dodgers become tradeable.
Lux, Rios, Muncy, Bellinger, Seager, Busch are a lot of lefty bats. And I think it is 50 50 that Pederson returns.
Mark, you might be reluctant to make a trade but you willingly toss out position changes like Smith to second and Lux to LF. I think Ruiz will be traded and Smith will remain at catcher. I don’t see Lux moving to LF. He is a shortstop who can play second and teams don’t waste that kind of talent by putting in LF, center maybe, but not LF.
Positional changes are no big deal with superior athletes. There are some guys that just will not be great defenders. They are here because they can hack. We probably have our share of those.
Haha Bums, Rios has historic power. Even more so than Joc, who was pretty good. He costs less than Joc and there’s an open position that he plays. No way Rios gets traded and no way Joc returns especially with all the left handed bats they have and the horrible regular season Joc just completed.
They signed Pollock to be a good right handed bat. He’s been a good right handed bat and very consistent at that ever since he got the plate removed from his elbow. He’s staying. It makes absolutely no sense that a team that needs right handed bats trades a right handed bat that’s performed close to elite level. He outslugged Mookie in case you missed it and tied him in HR and 2B with less ABs. And oh yeah, and he costs 1/3 of Mookie.
Lux is very fast, a great athlete and has problems throwing. Sounds like a move to the outfield is reasonable. He could be a center fielder in a year or two after he gets some experience out there. Getting some time in LF and some time at second base seems like a reasonable path.
Smith was called a great defensive catcher by AF before he came up. He’s had just two partial seasons behind the plate. Pencil him in at catcher, he isn’t moving to 2B. Ruiz will ride the plane when injury occurs, he still needs to prove he can hit and he isn’t better defensively than the other two catchers.
The team is going to try to repeat. It makes sense to buy a right handed hitting insurance policy on question marks at 2B and 3B. One that’s good enough to hit in the three hole and that sounds a lot like DJLM and JT or a trade that AF can see, but we can’t.
We’re losing a gang of relievers, so bringing in some relievers also makes sense especially when there are so many quality arms on the market.
I’ll say this again, they have a lot of cheap left handed hitting bats and there’s a market full of teams desperately trying to reduce payroll. A trade will happen and it will include someone most people think are close to untouchable.
I can hardly see a scenario where Hoese reaches the majors sometime in 2021. And if he does, I find it even more unlikely that he’s going to having a starting job in the post season for the defending champs. Seager and Bellinger were different scenarios. Both had several years in the minors, put up huge numbers and the team had less talent competing with them on the major league roster at the time of their callups. Hoese is wishful thinking.
They’re gonna get a right handed bat to play 3B, or 2B and pitching. Joc and Kike aren’t coming back. You can take that to the bank!
Just perused fangraphs Top 200+ prospects and here’s hopin’ to our developers cuz we don’t have many on it. Gray and Ruiz are currently outside the Top 50 and the rest of those guys listed above are considerably down the list. Cartaya and Pages can be found, along with Hoese but we have to accept most of the prospects we talk about are miles from bigs.
Rios and Lux both have what it takes but they need hundreds of live at bats. Where are they going to get them? Camelback? USC? Now that we have our championship, do we put them first string varsity?
I get the feeling changes might be made, but trying to guess what Friedman is going to do isn’t possible. We’re checkers, he’s chess. So, with everything in doubt, and that includes everything, I’ll sit and watch, possibly offer some edited opinions on occasion.
Totally agree, plus the fact that Lux and Rios are both lefties. If we were to pencil them in at 2nd and 3rd, we would have right handed bats in Pollock, Smith and Mookie and Pollock and Smith really don’t play full time. It’s very obvious to me that they need to do something to remedy that situation.
Someone needs to be traded. Could be Rios, Lux or even Muncy. I don’t see them trading Belli, or Seager. Lux provides insurance in case Seager chooses free agency. Rios is cheaper than Muncy and is probably a better defender. Muncy’s contract is a good value for his production. These are good problems to have except the part about everyone being left handed.
BandP, Rios and Ruiz are not the same player.
I know, I reviewed my posts and can’t see your point. Can you be more specific?
I didn’t mention trading Rios. It sounded like you thought I had. I did include Ruiz in a trade though.
Bum, I do not think AJ is as tradeable as you think His salary this season is 18 million with a 13 million dollar figure in 2022 and then a 10 million option or a 5 mil buy out. The 18 is just below the QO, and I would doubt any free agent outfielder not named Springer even comes close to that. No, AJ will be a Dodger in 21.
Agree, might have to pay some of AJ’s salary to trade him.
Seager and Bellinger both hit the Show at 21. I see no reason a guy who will be 24 in July (Hoese) can’t make it. I did not see him last season, but Gavin Lux and a couple of baseball insiders (not with the Dodgers) have raved about him. The fact that he is RH is a big plus!
We’ve got Betts, Pollock, Smith, Turner, Hernandez, Taylor, Barnes to handle the league’s 35% left handed pitching. It’s my opinion we are way to “platoon think”. We need guys who can a baseball that arrives inside a strike zone the size of a dictionary. (anybody remember those?) If we become organizationally platoon oriented we will develop platoon hitters. F that. Seager, Muncy and Bellinger hit left handers well enough we don’t platoon them. Find and develop more of them and less of Pederson.
Hitters hit. Go find hitters and throw them 500 pitches a day all winter.
You got that right, refuse to go back to the platoon days (Platoon was one frightening movie, btw, I liked Full Metal Jacket better but both were outstanding movies). To rely on platooning as a key ingredient to setting a lineup day after day really becomes counterproductive and actually starts holding guys back from getting their groove on at the plate ie. Andre Ethier, that poor guy was so good when he got his regular at bats and so poor when only getting his at bats every few days. To me, platooning is a band-aid approach to making a lineup, only to be done due to severe weakness in a roster. Look how much our lineup was thru-out the post-season once Roberts shook his middle finger at the wholesale change lineups he had put out on the field for the last 5 years. Question, did AF allow him to manage or did Roberts just say to hell with it, I’m making the lineup each night?
Opinion:
The boot camp scenes in Full Metal Jacket were excellent, though Pyle would never had access to a loaded M-14 on graduation day. The Vietnam scenes were filmed in the UK with the same what was supposed to be CH-34 helicopter (it wasn’t) circling in the gray skies that looked nothing like Hue. There were other notable mistakes made in the filming. The Vietnam scenes in Platoon were, to me, much more realistic and from my perspective made Platoon the better movie.
Just my opinion truth.
Platoon was just brutal and brutally honest. I think I like Full Metal Jacket because of the performance of R. Lee Ermy, just awesome enacting his real life as a Gunny, beautiful and hilarious. All the technical stuff you mentioned, yeah, I don’t get caught up in all the technicalities of helicopter this and filmed where that. I focus on the spirit, the theme, the mood and the day to day funny stuff and gruesome stuff. Platoon great, but Full Metal Jacket just has too much good stuff in all genres to not adore. Same reasons I like Pulp Fiction so much.
Full Metal Jacket was a good movie and depicted Marine boot pretty accurately up until the Pyle killing the Drill Sergeant scene. I have a lot of friends who were in the Corps that told me that. Platoon was gritty and brutal and based on the experiences of the director, Oliver Stone who was a infantry man in Nam. It was fiction of course, but it was also pretty accurate as to the everyday life on patrol for foot soldiers. Stone was awarded the Bronze Star, and was twice wounded. Stone made 2 other movies directly related to the war, Born on the Fourth of July, and Heaven and Earth, based on a couple of books by a Vietnamese woman and her experiences during the war. Since I am pretty into history, I usually can find inaccuracy’s in most of the historical films I have seen. Some I spot immediately, and others might take a while. For example, Pearl Harbor is for the most part a total train wreck historically. Tora, Tora, Tora is much more accurate. Even though it is fiction, Saving Private Ryan is uncanny in displaying the horror those guys faced on D-Day. When I saw the film in Texas, there was a D-Day vet there that I spoke with, he said he could actually feel bullets whizzing by his head while watching it. Brought back some bad memory’s for him.
There’s a big difference between Oliver Stone and Stanley Kubrick.. I can’t say Kubrick didn’t care about popularity but it didn’t effect his artistry. What’s funny was Steven Spielberg’s tribute to Kubrick’s plan for the movie ‘AI’. Spielberg did an amazing job of putting himself in dead Kubrick’s head making AI really like Kubrick made it. It wasn’t a box office success but I give Spielberg an A+ for pulling it off. Sure Spielberg’s wealth came in handy. Full Metal Jacket was the better of those movies.
Badger
Let’s all ask and/or pray to God for a solution for the virus. Just my gut feeling but I do believe we will have a vaccine by Jan. 2021. Hence hopefully an early spring training.
Hope you are right Joe. I remain skeptical. I’ve been skeptical since last February. And I’ve been right since then. We are right where I said we would be.
But, a safe effective vaccine may indeed be possible by January. January is less than 2 months away. I’d ask who is going to be in charge of administrating this vaccine but…. I won’t.
I’d love to talk more but I’ve been warned. Zero tolerance.
Good boy, I knew or at least hoped you would get it. Stick to baseball, it’s much more fun. I believe this site is put on for fun, ain’t it?
Do you think God is more concerned with humans walk of life above viruses walk of life? Did you know Ants out populate humans a 1,000,000 times? And ants have been around much longer.
Every time there is a rumor about a player looking to be traded or becomes a FA, fans expect their team to acquire that player. Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, DJLM, Trevor Bauer, Liam Hendriks, Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Mookie Betts…Every one of them have been linked to the Dodgers by some journal or other source. Most of those journals and sources expressed how those players were headed to LA. Out of all those players, the Dodgers traded for and locked up Mookie Betts.
The Dodgers also have three of the best young players in all of MLB: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler. Include Julio Urias and Will Smith, one can make an argument that LAD has five of the best young players in all of MLB. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are two other young guns who have not reached arbitration, and some want them blocked by Trevor Bauer or some other high priced starter. They do not need to be strong on Fangraphs top 200, they are already in and performing in the SHOW. And then the Dodgers have the 2019 MiLB Player of the Year in Gavin Lux, and because he had a poor performance in a CRAZY year, he is no longer good enough for some. If you are not spending $300MM you are not trying hard enough. After all MLB owners are billionaires, and we all know that billionaires made all of their coin by just spending frivolously based on whim.
Everyone knows that we fans know best how to create rosters, and that the Directors of Player Personnel are morons for not listening to us. But then again, which fans should be listened to and which fans should be sent to baseball purgatory? Some want Francisco Lindor (never mind the player capital cost), while others (I would say more informed ☺) prefer Corey Seager at SS. Some want to hold onto Gavin Lux, while others want to move him for relief pitching. Some believe that relief pitchers remain constant and elite every year, while others believe that you cannot trust relief pitchers from one year to the next.
The Indians have said that they WILL be trading Lindor this winter. Will the Rockies look to trade Trevor Story? Nolan Arenado? There is an opportunity to spend $$$ and improve the 2021 team, but will it make them better organizationally? Better chemistry? NYM have the money and the players to get a Lindor deal done. Do the Dodgers want to include two of Lux, May, Ruiz, or Gray and then a 15-20 prospect and maybe a lottery ticket for Lindor? Betts cost Verdugo, Downs, and Wong. SS is not a position of need, but I acknowledge and agree that Lindor is a special player. No Bums, Cleveland is not going to take Pollock or any other player with an above league minimum salary. They are trading Lindor because they cannot afford him.
IMO, the Dodgers will check in, but they will not make the trade. They will let NYM (or another team) make the trade. I like Freddie Freeman, but the Dodgers are not going to get him either. Hoese will not be ready to begin the season with ML team. He lost a valuable year to development, and if there is limited MiLB again in 2021, he will lose more developmental time. Hoese is not Alec Boehm. If JT is not re-signed, Rios will be the 3B. Is that really a bad situation? Although this is an ideal spot for a RH bat.
Also, if I were in charge, I would play Lux at 2B fulltime (no platoon) and let him prove that he belongs or does not belong. The trade deadline could be the arbitrary date to follow up on him. Lux is the 2B without question until then. Joc got a full rookie year before his platooning started. Why not give Lux the same courtesy?
Agree 100%. The Dodgers will see if their prized prospects (Lux, May, Smith) are ready to be full-time contributors to a championship quality team. Why wouldn’t they?
The clubhouse chemistry is good. Young players are inexpensive, which will be important when the Dodgers need to resign the likes of Seager and Bellinger. Some of these youngsters have the chance to be stars – May and Smith have shown it at the MLB level already. Lux hasn’t yet but he’s young and will have several chances before they give up on him.
I am surprised that so many are willing to move Will Smith from catcher. He is supposed to have elite receiving skills. No less than Andrew Friedman has said so. He is supposed to be a sounder defensive catcher than Ruiz is. I like his footwork behind the plate. He looks good blocking balls and he has a good arm. So he’s young and the pitchers don’t like him as much as Barnes – they didn’t like Grandal at 1st either. As Smith works with the pitchers and as he acquires more experience, the he will improve.
Why move a guy with great potential from catcher to 2B when you have a 2B in waiting in Lux? And why move Lux, who has really only played INF to OF when the Dodgers have plenty of OF?
Why does anyone think that if Lux has “the yips” that it’s forever? Steve Sax recovered.
“During the All-Star break, Sax had a conversation with his ailing father who told him he didn’t have a mental block; he had a temporary loss of confidence. He needed to practice being more confident and it would translate to game play. He was right. Sax overcame his defensive issues, and, in 1989, had the highest fielding percentage (.987) among second basemen in MLB. He had a 13-year career and won two World Series titles with the Dodgers.”
I’m sure that the Dodgers will kick the tires on several players to see what the market holds and look to fill in the gaps. I don’t look for them to make a big splash – they have no need to.
Two excellent posts in succession. Agree, and great insight.
Like SoCalGrinch, I too would like to see CT3 have a shot as the everyday 2nd baseman. He’s fine defensively, having been (and sometimes still is), a quality shortstop. He does have serious reverse splits, hitting only .200 against lefties which would need to improve and he strikes out too much. But I’d like to see him have the opportunity. McKinstry, by all indication, is ready to assume the utility role in Kiki’s absence.
I would leave Will Smith alone behind the plate. I don’t get the questioning of Smith that would warrant a position switch. That makes Barnes as the everyday guy with K-Bear/Cartaya as back up. They have a combined 8 MLB at bats. Barnes had a great post season but he hit .244 on the year (to Smith’s 290), can’t hit righties and is 30. Can he catch everyday? And can Smith actually play a MLB quality 2nd or 3rd? I don’t see the value in that move at least for next year until the young catchers get more experence. I feel the same about Lux. I just don’t see the value of putting him the outfield mix with the other prospects. If he can’t play 2nd, I’d look to trade him to fill other needs and not move him. I’m not exactly giving up on the kid but my eyes don’t like what they see with Lux overall. The problem I have with giving Lux the job at 2nd (and it’s his to lose) is I just would like to see CT3 get that shot.
I like CT3, but IMO he is more valuable as a utility player who can play 2B, SS, LF, and CF or be the RH DH. Lux is not an OF and is not an everyday MLB SS for the Dodgers. CT3 is 30 and Lux is 23. Lux has 5-6 more years of team control wile CT3 is a FA after 2021. Lux has a much higher ceiling and would be my everyday 2B, and CT3 would be plan B.
McKinstry would become the utility guy if CT3 stuck at 2nd. You don’t need 2. I agree that Lux is not an outfielder and see no reason why he should be. If CT3 is not re-signed in 2021, Lux would perhaps be more ready to take over the job then. I’m not as convinced as you are Jeff, that he has that high of a ceiling. His numbers assessed by scouts were high and his work in the minors show he supposedly has the potential but we’ve yet to see a glimpse of that with the Dodgers. Certainly never as a shortstop in my estimation.
Yes, I know he only has 42 games and 138 MLB at bats but I’ve seen lots of prospects in my time and he does not make my eyes pop out. Maybe he will. He could certainly solve a big hole if he gets it going.
But I’m not sure that if the right deal was put together that I wouldn’t include Lux in a deal. We have a need for a right handed corner, power bat and some less pressing needs. I’d keep that option open as to me he is no longer “untouchable”. The young pitchers are.
Those splits never existed before this year. See Mookie’s splits, same story.
You are correct that this year was an anomaly for CT3 regarding his splits. Thats why I think he can be the everyday guy at 2nd as I said above “He does have serious reverse splits, hitting only .200 against lefties which would need to improve”. I have no reason to believe he won’t.
…”Every time there is a rumor about a player looking to be traded or becomes a FA, fans expect their team to acquire that player.” True but maybe mostly just a conversation starter during the cold months.
AC, Cleveland needs outfield offense and Pollock would provide that. They will need offense even more without Lindor. Longshot clearly but conjecture adds spice. The safe bet is to predict no changes.
AC, to coin a phrase from one of my favorite and knowledgeable fellow bloggers, SPOT ON.
I think we will get a RH bat and it will probably be JT.
If JT is resigned than I expect 2B to be covered by someone in the org (CT3, Lux, Muncy most likely in that order). I think it will be a competition between CT3 and Lux with an initial platoon as an option.
I don’t think AF will go into the season with Rios as his only 3B. I don’t see Muncy as a 3B except as an emergency. I also don’t see Hoese as the 3B plan for 2021. Like Cody and Cory though, he could be the 3B at the end of the year. He has to take it and not give it back when given the opportunity. A JT/Rios combination at 3B would be my guess but that only means AF will do something else.
Now that we’ve got that championship, I totally agree with your idea of giving Lux the first half of 2021 as the every day second baseman. Let ‘s see exactly what we have there and he will feel less pressure if he knows the job is his until the trade deadline.
I wonder if AF has any interest at all in Lindor and if he does, has he had or will he have a conversation with Seager about positions and about extensions. All of that stuff is intermingled and needs to be carefully thought out before even exploring a Lindor trade.
Arenado made a bad decision by not forcing a trade last off season. Between his mediocre 2020, his opt out after 2021 and the huge amount of $ remaining on his contract, he’s going to be very hard to trade right now. If he does opt out after next season, he’s going to wind up taking a salary cut, something that most guys just don’t do. Time for the Rockies to start a total rebuild, including the owner. Story is the one guy who has some real trade value.
First things first. Mark, edit your HR totals for Muncy for 18 and 19. He hit 35, not 37 each of those years. Bum, since he signed with the Dodgers? Pollock has only been a Dodger 2 years. Not like he has been here for a while. He hit 1 more homer this year than he did in 19. Difference is he did it in under 200 at bats. He had a decent year in 19. Not spectacular, but not as bad as the first year Dusty Baker had in a Dodger uni. He played 31 more games in 19 than he did this year. And the biggest plus, he was healthy. I feel, as Mark does, that there will not be much movement. I think JT will get a team friendly 2 year deal. I also think that when the two sides meet, they will keep the DH moving forward. The players association is all for it. MLB wants to have a trade off with expanded playoffs next year being the caveat. I believe they will stay away from the higher priced players. Anyone who has recieved a QO will definitely not be on their radar simply because I doubt AF is willing to give up the draft choice that is the price for such a signing. There will probably be a trade or two. Lindor is not going to be one of them. As for Belli, he has been good in the odd numbered years. and meh in the even. So a rebound is not out of the question. His first act this off season though was to appear in the new Assassin’s Creed video game. I thank all the free agents and bid them adieu. Pedro and JT appear to have the best chance of returning. Trienen would be on the bubble. He certainly won’t get 10 mil again. If they make any moves at all, I think it will be for a RH hitter with power. That is the one hole in the lineup. Turner could supply some of that, but his power numbers are bound to decline with his advancing age. The perfect solution would be for one of the talented players in the system, Hoese, Busch, to suddenly display MLB talent. Both will most likely get spring invites. I think that after the non tenders are announced in early December, there are going to be so many players out there that they will be able to find some decent pieces at low prices. The MLBPA has used the term bloodbath because so many players are going to be unable to find jobs with the reduction of the minor leagues on the table. And foreign teams like the KBA and the Japanese Leagues, limit the amount of foreign players who can be on the roster. That is going to leave Latin America and Mexico as places they will have to be willing to play, and what ever Independent leagues stay in operation in the states. The face of baseball is changing. I believe there will be maybe a handful of player’s who will get big bucks long term deals this winter. Springer probably, J T Realmuto. But not many more than that. A player like Ozuna is probably going to get no more than 3 years. Anything over 5 would be a real surprise for any player in this uncertain climate.
“Hey You’all, watch this: I’ll blow up the team and make dope-fiend trades just because I can”, said the stupid Redneck! “I’ll do it out by my new swimmin’ pool! Let’s make some trades…”
But then you want to blow up the team and replace key players – guys who’ve been the heart and soul of the team -with players currently in the rookie leagues.
I am only thinking one or maybe two rookies (not counting Lux as one) make it.
It is important to not just think in a box.
There is a lot of time and lots of strange things can happen. Right about now, I am just
stretching my brain… and it hurts!
Are you stretching that half a gnat’s brain into a full one?
I know you’re thinking outside the box. I’m just being a contrarian to bust chops. I like to argue.
Probably good thinking to dig into the prospect bin to restock the reliever corps. Joe Kelly – probably not a good signing. Treinan – ok signing. Probably not going to give him a multi-year.
V Gon was great, especially down the stretch.
I’m with Patch, don’t blow things up and players out, not if they are key players. Some key players don’t always show up in the season’s stats, but they do show up in the post-season stats (Kike and Joc, to name two). Also some players show up most in the dugout and locker room (kike and Joc, to name two), sports are emotions and desire driven, can’t always measure with a box score the importance of those type of players (Kike and Joc to name two). Just think, they tried to toss Joc onto the scrap heap , I mean the Angels, do the Dodgers win it all with Joc watching the WS from Anahslime?
Where was blowing the team up suggested?
Here you go Badger, this is a quote from Patch’s post, which i was commenting on. You must have just missed it in that 5 sentence post he made “But then you want to blow up the team and replace key players – guys who’ve been the heart and soul of the team -with players currently in the rookie leagues.”
What else you got to spread your joy on?
Why do you do this?
“Hey You’all, watch this: I’ll blow up the team and make dope-fiend trades just because I can”, said the stupid Redneck! “I’ll do it out by my new swimmin’ pool! Let’s make some trades…”
“But then you want to blow up the team and replace key players”
Who is the “you” he is talking about. Also, who is the stupid redneck he is referring to.
For whatever reason you are choosing to come after me, I think I know why but since we aren’t allowed to talk about I’d appreciate it if you and I just ignore each other.
Tossing Joc into “the scrap heap” is an interesting statement. I would suggest with the exception of the post season, Joc tossed himself in the scrap heap. I’m on record at the end of the regular season as wanting Joc to be out of the platoon in left and used only as a pinch hitter against righties. I ate crow over that and took it like a man. BUT, the fact remains that while he had a great post season, he was a dog in the regular season. Let’s not completely rewrite history here. He hit .190 w/ a .681 OPS. He is limited in the line up with only 9 at bats against lefties all year. His career post season batting is .272 so he seems to turn it on in October. But why is this the case. So now he should lose 20 lbs and turn over a new leaf? Thanks for his contributions to the WS but now it’s time to move on and give him a new start somewhere else. I don’t have the desire to watch him loaf, look distracted and perform poorly for 6 months to get to October.
My thought was based on basically giving Joc away to the Angels, I think the Angels were going to have to give up a bat boy and a greens-keeper to acquire Joc. That’s where the scrap heap reference came from. I happen to like Joc for a variety of reasons and thought it was stupid to just toss him out.
BTW…I was needling you a little last week. You’re right. I was being a douche. My apologies.
All excellent points and thoughts, Mark.
In 2020, the Dodgers featured the following ROOKIES on their MLB roster:
Tony Gonsolin
Victor Gonzalez
Brusdar Graterol
Dustin May
Josh Sborz
Mitch White
Keibert Ruiz
Edwin Rios
Zach McKinstry
Is having 2 to 5 rookies play a role next year blowing anything up? Not in my book,
You missed Lux.
Duhhhhh!
Each year we offer minor league contracts and spring training invites to a number of players that we want to roll the dice on. Can we offer a “post season contract” to Joc? During the regular season he can do whatever he wants, spend time with the family, go hang out at the beach in Malibu, whatever. Come October, I want him on the team.
Now that is some good thinking outside the box.
Absolutely
MOOKIE BETTS WINS LOUISVILLE SILVER SLUGGER
Dodger outfielder wins third consecutive Louisville Silver Slugger
LOS ANGELES – Los Angeles Dodger outfielder Mookie Betts has been awarded the 2020 National League Louisville Silver Slugger.
Betts, 28, earns his third straight Louisville Silver Slugger award, fourth overall and his first as a member of the Dodgers. This is the second straight season a Dodger has received the award, as Betts follows Cody Bellinger who won the award last season. With the honor, Betts becomes the 20th player in franchise history to earn the award since its inception in 1980 and it is the 28th time a Dodger has received a Silver Slugger award. He becomes the sixth player in franchise history to earn the Rawlings Gold Glove and Louisville Silver Slugger in the same season, joining Bellinger (2019), Adrían González (2014), Matt Kemp (2011), Russell Martin (2007) and Dusty Baker (1981).
In his first season with the Boys in Blue, Betts hit .292 (64-for-129) with nine doubles, 16 homers, 10 stolen bases and 39 RBI in 55 games. The Nashville, TN native ranked among the National League leaders in hits (T-10th), runs (47, 4th), batting average (16th), OBP (.366, 17th), SLG (.562, 13th), OPS (.927, 13th), total bases (123, 7th), extra-base hits (26, T-13th) steals (T-5th) and homers (16, T-3rd).
The National League Most Valuable Player finalist culminated his stellar regular season by leading the Dodgers to a World Championship and hitting safely in 14 of 18 playoff games, while batting .296 (21-for-71) with eight doubles, two homers, six stolen bases and eight RBI. Additionally, he recorded his 1,000th career hit and 500th career RBI in the 2020 campaign and is one of 18 outfielders in MLB history with four or more Louisville Silver Slugger awards.
The Louisville Slugger Silver Slugger Awards are the top offensive honor in Major League Baseball. Coaches and managers of Major League teams vote for the players they feel are the best offensive producers at each position in the field in both the American and National Leagues. They base their selections on a combination of offensive statistics including batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, as well as the coaches’ and managers’ general impressions of a player’s overall offensive value. Managers and coaches are not allowed to vote for players on their own team.
If it’s only he only shows up as Joctober he could weigh in as a heavyweight! I would love to see Joc get serious this off season and come back 20 pounds lighter and in great shape! I would love to have him stay!
Mookie Betts is simply the best all around player I have seen in Dodger Blue. He can do it all, and does all of it better than most any player except maybe Mike Trout. Now, if Mookie gets his mojo back against lefty’s, look out. He will have a monster 2021.
Hard to argue that. I wish he hit a little better, but everything else he did during the post season was superb, the leaping catches that were perfectly timed, the shoestring catch the baserunning was all awesome to experience. I Betts he’ll find the bat next year. (See what I did there, MT?) 😉
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A blog is a living, breathing thing.
Today, when I wrote the blog. all of the Dodger’s own free agents are no longer currently Dodgers.
I hope that some are back, but as of today, that is not the case,
Moving forward, AF will not sign free agents like DJLM or trade for guys like Lindor (although you will hear they are on his trail).
At this juncture, we have to assume and hope that some prospects are ready next year.
As I mentioned earlier, the Dodgers had at least 10 rookies play in 2020.
I happen to believe that at least 5 rookies will play a role in 2021.
Which 5? That is the million-dollar question.
I have Hoese at the top of the class followed by:
Ruiz
Busch
de Geus
McKinstry
Thomas
Miller
stay tuned….
Gray and Ruiz are the top of the class.
I do not expect Gray until 2022, but I like him a lot.
I concur that 2022 is Gray’s year. If we have something approaching a traditional season, I could see Gray getting a cup of coffee in September just to give him a taste of the MLB. Same with Miller.
If we have another abbreviated season than probably not unless something goes awfully wrong.
1.Gray
2. Ruiz
3. Hoese
4. Busch
Mitch White at #9 got some innings. You never know when pitching will be needed. Why not bring up our best. Gray is 23 next month. 60 fastball. 55 slider.
I would like to see Gray, but he is being groomed as a starter. At least historically, AF’s Dodgers don’t usually bring their potential starters up early.
I think a case can be made to bring them up earlier as BP pieces but the Dodgers seem to prefer that they throw starter innings in AAA. I suspect that is to develop their peripheral pitches in lower pressure situations (but I stayed at home last night rather than in a HIExpress).
Now if the MiLB season is minimal than the development pattern may likely change.
MT, You might want to include Gerardo Carrillo on that list. He has a better shot as a reliever on the ML team.
de Geus and McKinstry should make the roster out of ST. Ruiz will get called up if Smith or Barnes goes on the IL just like last season. But he will not play a pivotal role with the team. His 2021 role will be the same as 2020.
I do not see either Hoese, Busch, or Thomas getting a call in 2021. Busch has a total of 35 professional PA and Hoese has 171, all at low A and Rookie. Hoese is hitting .299/.380/.483/.863 while Busch is hitting .125/.371/.125/.496. The Dodgers are too deep to need either of them for another playoff run. If either make it to ML, then there is no longer any reason for college players to play in MiLB. Also, as good as Michael Busch has been touted, I do not think anybody should look past Devin Mann, who will get called before either Hoese or Busch. Omar Estevez and Drew Jackson do not have the ceilings that Hoese or Busch have, but they are closer to being MLB ready and they will get called before Hoese or Busch. Teams can no longer call up their entire 40 man roster in September as they have in the past. I believe 28 is the limit.
The Dodgers do not need another LH bat, thus Thomas is not needed. Thomas has never played above AA where he batted .236/.308/.443/.751 in 2019. He is 26 years old. People get too enamored with what MiLB players do at ST against other MiLB pitchers. For the Dodgers, Cody Thomas is a #5 OF. DJ Peters is on the 40 man and will get the call before Thomas. He is also RH which is a need for the Dodgers.
Bobby Miller has an outside chance at making a late season bullpen run. So does Landon Knack and Clayton Beeter.
Unless there is a string of injuries, I agree that Jo Jo Gray will not make the 2021 ML team roster during the season. I think the Dodgers want to keep him strictly as a starter.
I agree that the Dodgers will not sign DJLM, nor Ozuna, nor Springer, nor Hendriks, nor Bauer. They may re-sign JT but only on a team friendly deal. They might re-sign Treinen, but I bet they look at Trevor May, Trevor Rosenthal, or Alex Colome first. I think Shane Greene will get a look. Once the non-tenders are known (December 2), that is when FA will take off in earnest. There is going to be a lot of veterans who are going to get MiLB contracts throughout MLB. The Dodgers will have their share. They generally stock OKC with those OF.
December 2nd is the non-tender deadline. December 6-10 are the winter meetings. That’s going to be a fun time for us. Not so much for the guys who are non-tendered.
Thanks for this. Teams prolly waiting for the market to be flooded on 12/3.
Agreed. I don’t think we’ll see much activity until the non-tenders are out there.
Tatis getting Silver Slugger a joke with his .278 average and getting shutdown by the Dodgers in the final regular series.
ThenDodgers will need a right hand bat. Any guess who Friedman might look at. I think Jeff is right AF will not sign Ozuna. As I r3call Peters strike out a lot. So while he could get the call sometime during 2021, I don’t see him as the answer.
So, a couple of days ago, someone posted the link to an article about Kody Hoese where Gavin Lux said that Hoese was “really, really, really good.” It was said in the context of an interview where it just seemed odd to me. He could have said “Yeah, he’s good.” But, he said REALLY three times.
That’s the kind of stuff you say when you see something really amazing. So, over the next couple of days I put in a few calls (3 to be exact – I got the 3rd one last night). Now, I don’t know what to say about these people I talked to because they all work in different areas of baseball. All were once with the Dodgers, but are not at this time. There is a buzz around baseball wherein baseball people talk to other baseball people and communicate. Sometimes it includes reporters, but generally, it’s just a form of communication among baseball types.
Jeff Dominique knows of what I speak – maybe he even has a name for it – but if some player is doing something good or bad, this news travels fast. My sources tell me that Kody Hoese (unlike many players) took a huge leap forward while at USC, thus the “Really, Really, Really Good.” I know Jeff also has sources (actually a lot more than me) and I hope he can check with some of them about Hoese.
I like Gavin Lux, but I have never predicted when he would arrive and how good he might be. I really don’t know. I do know what I hope he can be, but I don’t predict that. I predicted that Seager and Bellinger were ready and that they would be stars, because I saw it with my own eyes. MY EYES, don’t tell me that about Lux, but Lux and now others have confirmed that Kody Hoese may have taken a big step forward in 2020. This is all heresay and maybe I am wrong, but stuff like this DOES happen in baseball. Suddenly, the light just flips on! Kody will be 24 in July. Seager and Bellinger were 21. I just do not have any empirical evidence, but I do have 3 people all saying that Kody is now on a fast track.
On JoJo Gray: I like him, but his ceiling is as a #3. Bobby Miller’s ceiling is of an Ace and I have no doubt that Bobby and his 99 MPH fastball and 90 MPH slider/cutter could pitch successfully out of the bullpen right now. Miller looks like a starter, but may have to move to the pen. I see JoJo Gray as a Lance Lynn top pitcher.
Everyone saw Corey Seager as a top prospect Mark. Everybody was talking about it back then. Remember? All you had to do was google Top MLB Prospect and his name was at the top of the list. Julio Urias was on that same list reaching as high as #4. The highest I found Kody Hoese was #129 and many that were ranked above him were 2-3 years younger.
I don’t doubt he can hit. But Big League hitting is a different step. I am curious – if you intend to put him at third what’s the plan for Turner and Rios? I sort of see the two of them sharing the position next year.
I agree that on this team Gray will likely be a #3. Not bad being a #3 on the best pitching staff in the Major Leagues. I hope to see him next year for that cup of coffee. In a normal year that would be a given. Will ‘21 be normal? Stand by. Maybe your January vaccines will make it so.