2020 World Series Preview – Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

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1. Dodgers in 5. My heart can’t take another 7 game series. CK and Mookie co-MVP’s. Go Blue!

2. Thanks for the excellent write-up, Jeff! I don’t know the Rays well at all, but they seem like a worthy opponent. Their bullpen seems very strong, so running up the pitch count with their starters, to force them to overuse their relief pitchers, and scoring runs early, should be keys for us.

3. Excellent Summary, Jeff. Outstanding analysis. Here’s what I find very interesting:

   When Andrew Friedman left the Rays six years ago, he left on good terms and predicted that they would meet in the World Series. Now, here’s the domino-effect of Friedman leaving TB:

   It triggered a little-known contract clause that allowed then-manager Joe Maddon to opt-out of his deal with the Rays. Maddon then signed with the Cubs and led them to a World Series championship in 2016.

   The Rays promoted Erik Neander (now their general manager) and Chaim Bloom (now running the Red Sox’s baseball operations department) to more prominent roles in the front office. (James Click, now the Astros’ GM, was further elevated when Bloom left for Boston.)

   So, with the Rays, Astros, Red Sox, and even Atlanta (with Alex Anthopoulos, who worked for Friedman), the Friedman -Tree is growing exponentially.

   By the way, Kevin Cash (Rays manager) has a higher winning percentage than Joe Maddon. Both clubs bear the mark of Friedman’s roster construction, even if he’s not responsible for acquiring many of the Rays’ current players. They feature exceptionally deep rosters, versatile position players, strong defensive play, flexible pitching staffs, and tight-knit clubhouses.

   Both teams play the game right.

   A few observations and a question:

   1. I have only seen the Rays a few times, but with all of their fast balling bullpen, I have to wonder if this plays right into the Dodgers power (I.e., hitting fastballs)? If anything, many of the dodgers (Joc, Corey, Cody, Max, Mookie, KIke,) all feast on fastballs.

   2. Could Cody Bellinger’s injury be a “blessing in disguise?” Could he be forced to cut down his long follow-through, resulting in a more compact swing and more hits? It could happen… or not!

   3. I predict the Dodgers will win, but it will be in 4, 5, 6, or 7 games! I have no idea how many games it will take. I don’t even know how to calculate that except by a W.A.G.

   4. World Series heroes come from unlikely places at times!

   5. Is this the final roster, or can the Rays sneak in Wander Franco?

   BTW, Charlie Morton does not throw his fastball as much – it’s 90 to 95 MPH, and he does mix in curves, changes-ups, and cutters, but he is no soft-tosser. His out-pitch is still a 95-97 MPH “Wipeout Sinker.” Very difficult for fastball hitters!

4. Great summary Jeff.

   I‘ll take the Dodgers in 6. Why 6? Because that’s what I just read in the Athletic. The player, the coach and the scout all say the Dodgers in 6.

   1. I’ll take ’em in 3!

      1. You can get odds on that.

5. Old butterfly’s are coming back. The anticipation of the game. I think on of the keys is shutting down their rookie phenom. Yes, the Rays beat the Yanks, and the Cheeto’s, but neither pitching staff is as good as the Dodgers. And the Yankee offense, while full of power hitters, does not really grind pitchers down. I think in game one, there will be a lot of nervous kids out there for the first time on the big stage. Glasnow may not be the same guy he was in Pittsburgh, but he still is barely over .500 in his career. I just say jump on them early. Don’t let the pitchers get the upper hand. Experience is a huge thing.

6. I think it’s all up to our offense. The Marlins have top of the line playoff pitching. I think Morton is their best pitcher especially in the playoffs and would not want to face him in a game7. Didn’t work out well last time for us. We need to put up 4 runs a game and this series is ours. Let’s see who brings their big boy bats and is ready to hit high 90’s stuff!

   1. Uh, the MARLINS are the other Florida team. We are playing the RAYS. You are confusing your fish

7. Went for my follow-up COVID-19 test today. I feel negative… no more symptoms (Thank God). Should have the results in the next 48 hours. I will enjoy this game. Every pitch – every inning. I was foggy for some of them. It’s great to feel good again. I went up and down the steps 6 times this morning just to prove I could do it. Not winded. Not bad for having pneumonia a few days ago.

   Now, I am working on an aorta appointment. Not going back to work until have it all done. Most of my strength is back. GO DODGERS!

   1. GO DODGERS, ALSO GO MARK! Wishing you good health.

   2. So if ever there was a time to kick your ass Mark, this is it. I’ll check my schedule.

      The thing I see about the Rays that concerns me is they are all young ballers. They don’t much give a sh** we’re the almighty Dodgers. I’m also a bit concerned about the length of this staff, as in they kinda look like they’ve pitched 162 games and they’ve done it in the last two months. I don’t see anybody who can go six, and the bullpen has a lot of miles on it. I’d like to see this over quickly, so Dodgers in 3 sounds good.

8. Mark, that is great news. Glad to hear you are symptom free and on the way to a full recovery. We were worried about you. Thank you for sharing.

9. The Rays score via the home run and the walk. Kershaw doesn’t give up walks.

   I think Joc will start in LF today due to Smith at DH and a righty pitcher going. Pollock is looking a lot like Playoff Pollock again.

   I would love to see Kike’ pinch hit for Muncy in a key moment against a lefty.

10. Great analysis Jeff and Mark. Mark, glad to hear you’re doing so much better.

11. The more I look at it the more it appears like Dodgers in four. So with that I say Dodgers in five, just because nothing ever goes completely right…..hardly.

12. Thank you, AC. That was quite interesting. Anxious to see how we do against the Ray’s pitching. Should be some close, good games maybe. Houston Mitchell had some nice things to say about Joc. Hoping to see a win tonight and wish all the team Good Luck.

13. I think we are underestimating how good this Tampa Bay pitching is. Remember what Fried and Anderson did to us in first 2 games with Braves. I see this as another hard fought series that I’m hoping doesn’t go seven again. I can’t take it!

14. The Dodgers stood pat with the same roster as the NLCS, but the Rays added a speedy OF’er and another LHP. No Wander Franco!

15. Thank you Jeff for your preview. I knew very little about the Rays, but after reading a couple of other previews besides yours I’m feeling really good about the Dodgers chances this year. I just have to be careful not to get too over confident. If the Dodgers hit like we all know they’re capable of doing, I think they can win this in 5 games.

    Go Dodgers!!!

16. Muncy hits leftys as well or as bad as he does righties!

    1. Max Muncy Lifetime Stats:
       RHP vs LHP
       BA; 229 vs 256
       OBP358 vs362
       Slug477 vs 503
       OPS: 835vs 855

17. As Mark alluded to

    For Rays

    Brett Phillips and Ryan Sherriff added;
    Jose Alvarado and Aaron Slegers dropped

    1. Brett Phillips – career metrics over 383 PA – .202/.284/.347/.631 – Will probably be used for pinch running and OF defense

       Ryan Sherriff – Sinker ball pitcher (91.3 Avg MPH), and slider (81 Avg MPH). Almost an 80/20 split. Will occasionally (very occasionally) throw a change. Meant to produce soft contact (86.3 Avg EV). And with an average launch angle of 3.2 more of a ground ball pitcher, but shows that he will occasionally leave it up to produce line drives. Not a big spin rate. But he is LH and throws soft, just what Dodger hitters are not very good with.

18. Maybe it’s my pessimistic nature, but every time I think the Dodgers have got this, I am rudely reminded that nothing ever seems to come easy to them.

    Just when you begin to believe that this is the moment, they have a habit of collectively not hitting, normally against a pitcher we expect to beat.

    This first game is huge – get off to a winning start and we could dominate the series. A defeat would give the Rays plenty of confidence.

    That being said, Tampa is gonna have to play very well to beat us 4 times.
    Reading Jeff’s excellent review, I was taken by how few Tampa players I am familiar with!

    4-2 to the good guys.

    1. Renfroe and Margot were Padres. They beat Glasnow when he was a Pirate. They have faced Snell once in interleague play, and Charlie Morton pitched against them in the 2017 series. He pitched against them once as a Brave too. He is 1-1 in his career against LA the win coming in the 17 series.

19. Tyler Glasnow has an elite fastball and curveball. His curve has more than 10 inches vertical drop (like CKs), along with a rising fastball that approaches 100 mph. He’s basically a 2-pitch pitcher. Earlier in his career, he tried to paint the corners of the strike zone, and often missed. Now he “expands the zone” and gets swings and misses. He curve often results in Ks or groundouts. It will be interesting to see how the Dodgers approach him. He seemed very relaxed and confident in his pregame interview. He has pitched well in the post-season. I guess he and the Rays have less pressure on them, as we are the favorites. Maybe it’s me, but CK seemed quite uptight in the pregame interviews. Hope he can just be in the moment.

    1. I am not worried about Kershaw being uptight. He has been here too many times. Glasnow’s strength is he gets guys to chase. The Dodgers are the best in the majors at not expanding the zone. The guys career ERA is almost 5.

       1. Sounds logical, Bear. From your lips to the baseball gods’ ears!

20. Good to hear you are ok Mark.

    When the two best teams face each other it will never be easy. Dodgers in 6 .

21. The Dodgers hadn’t played the Braves all year. In the early games of their series, they were learning the Braves pitchers. There’s a reason they won the last 3 games – they were learning the pitchers. The Dodgers may take a while to learn the Rays’ pitchers but when they do they will adjust and win.

22. If I wasn’t a Dodger fan I’d be pulling for the Rays.

23. Would the Dodgers start Alex Wood in game 2? Not sure he’s stretched out enough. Will be a bullpen game regardless.

24. I’d rather start Roberts than Wood! Please no!

    1. He’s on the roster for a reason.

       Sometimes Wood can be nails. (see what I did there?)

       2 Innings.

       Then bring in Kelly!

       1. Kelly’s the man. Was on the mound when Ozuna forgot to tag up. Kelly’s responsible for changing the direction of the series. Sure he gave up hits but that’s part of his master plan; lull the opposing team into a sense of complacency.

          1. I thought he might be injured, but he’s on the roster. He has been quite unconventionally effective. He scares me and I’m fearless!

             Maybe he’s the “Secret Weapon.” Maybe they will hypnotize and tell him it’s 2018!

             You never know what will happen….
             

       2. Then Roberts?

25. Jeff, you are amazing. Very nice preview.

26. Game 1 lineup:

    Mookie
    Seager
    JT
    Muncy
    Smith (DH)
    Belli
    CT3
    Joc
    Barnes
    Kersh

    1. As we suspected!

    2. Thank you Bobby.

27. Now Bobby post the game one box score. My heart can’t take watching the game without knowing if we won!

28. Excellent write up Jeff.

    I think this Series will be much more competitive than what most of the pundits are predicting.

    This is going at least 6 games and probably 7. Atlanta’s pitching, with the exception of Fried, is inferior to the Ray’s from 2 through 13. The Dodgers staff has been worked hard. If none of the Dodgers starters can get through 6 innings this could get dicey. What’s that saying, good pitching stops good hitting. The Braves did not have good pitching (2 quality starters unless they are Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling does not make a staff).

    The Rays are use to going up against the big boys but they have not seen as complete of a team as the Dodgers.

    Get ready for game 1 as this could set the tone for the series.

29. These are the teams with the best record in each league.

    They both are similar… and different.

    Of course, I root for the Dodgers and I hate to say it (because he sometimes lets us down), but how CK goes tonight, will largely determine the Dodgers’ fate.

    No pressure, Clayton!

    I can say the same about Kenley! I think they both will have to be factors.

30. Welcome back MT… One day at a time…
    I had a hard time staying awake for the first 4 games with a combination of my surgery recovery and the beginning of my PT… An all around cluster…
    I’m ready now and see the the Blue in 5…
    Lakes and Blue in 88… Sounds good don’t it!??!
    P.S. Yep, lets get the teams in long lines after losing and shake hands!!! Yep that’s the ticket… Makes me want to slap the old biscuit between the pipes…

31. OMG!! WE have to listen to Buck and Smoltz AGAIN?? Why haven’t the powers to be thought of having the two teams in the WS bring their broadcasting crew along to call the game? The home team would have their broadcasting crew call the game.

32. let´s go Dodgers

33. No first inning slider but looks better now. Lock it in CK! Go Blue!

34. Kershaw looks good. Glasnow wild but we have let him off the hook swinging at bad pitches. I love turner but he can’t seem to catch up to the fastball these days. Glad to hear u r feeling good Mark!

35. Does Glasnow normally rest at 100? Agree turner is struggling to get around on heat. Shorten it up red, all these dudes throw 97 to a bill.

36. Playoff beard still in effect, People at work calling me Grizzley Adams, taking one for the team, been growing strong since 6th inning of the game 4 debacle versus Atlanta. Been posting about its life ever since.

37. Is Belli getting locked in? That would be huge.

38. Contact play just like it did earlier this year with Mookie.

39. With 6 BBs, who needs hits? Belli locked in. Muncy, the BB king. Mookie the expert base runner. CK’s one weakness, the HR. He will get the win and deserves it. I love Glasnow. Wish we had him.

40. It’s even looking more like Dodgers in four. But I still stay at five.

41. Clayton Kershaw has never appeared in a World Series game with more than a four-run lead until today.

42. Kershaw out, fantastic start. It may be his time. Let’s hope the Dodgers finish this one off as they will be underdog tomorrow. Josh Fleming Tampa reliever is a relative of my wife’s boss. He is from Columbia Il. He did his part to help but he will remember striking out bellinger. My wife will have to hide her enthusiasm a bit tomorrow.

    1. Not a big fan of pulling Kershaw there. I give him at least 7 innings. Why let them see more of the pen.

       1. Wasn’t a fan either and now they’re going to Gonzalez.

43. Bring in Kelly, Wood, & Jansen to finish the game, Doc. lol

44. Friedman needs to clean up the bullpen in the off-season.

    If the offense scores enough runs it allows Doc to make pitching decision mistakes and get away with it.

    1. Here we go again…

       AF doesn’t know how to build a bullpen and Doc can’t manage one.

       That silliness is getting old… nevermind it is not true. Get some new (true) material!

       1. It’s absolutely true if you look at the player stats closely.

          It may be getting old but it’s true and I consistently talk truth.

          1. Just to be clear if I haven’t been clear. Friedman has done an absolutely great job building the offense and building the starting pitching.

          2. You are so predictable. Every single time, the bullpen gives up something and you drool like Pavlov’s dog.

             1. I’m predictable because I see a flaw and talk about the flaw. I don’t talk about the offense and starting pitching because I have no problem with those two things.

             2. Good to have u back Mark and bringing the hammer down on the idiotic second guessing!

45. AF is fine, but those BP moves by Doc were BONEHEAD

    1. How so?

       1. His position is indefensible.

          Just a Doc hater!

          1. Yeah, probably. But I’d like to hear the explanation anyway.

46. Why do you think Doc took Clayton out?

    1. To add more excitement to the Dodger blowout? 🙂

    2. 3rd time around the lineup not good the last outing. Built confidence, we only need 6 inning with that lead.

47. Look at the bright side—Doc learned two things: don’t go to Floro in a tight situation and make sure Victor has plenty of time to warm up.

48. Doc took Clayton out after just 78 pitches, so that if he is needed to start Game 5 or 6, he will be ready, and there is also a possibility after a long offensive inning by the Dodgers, his back could have tightened a little. No need to chance it!

    It was a brilliant move… not a Bonehead move. When you are up 8-1, GET HIM OUTTA’ THERE so he can pitch another day if needed.

    Doc also got Floro and Gonzolez some World Series experience. They will be needed later… even if they did not pitch well tonight. It’s called experience… and it helps!

    1. Thank you

49. R U ready for Kenley?

    …’er Kelly?

50. Just how Kelly scripted it!

    😉

51. WOW!

    1. Like I said, Kelly he’s the man.

52. Dodgers off to a great start in the series!! Mookie early mvp candidate! If bellinger can get hot(red hot) it would add to the fun. Muncy 2 hits and a walk. He is in the 4 hole due to on base, power, and over 800 ops vs. lefty or righty. Good to c Taylor join the fun and be running well.

53. Let’s hope for a Buehler start tomorrow and save the Graterol/Urias tangent for later in the series. I’m not trusting either May or Gonsolin at the moment, although they could pitch if they have to. They both really need more seasoning in the regular season and they will be among our rotation for years. Urias seems to be the most mature out of this younger group. The BP should be fine. Undoubtedly, there will be some changes there.

    This was a great start to the Series for us. The players look happy and up for the challenge. I also believe that this is the YEAR!!

    1. I’m not as concerned about May and Gonsolin as most appear to be. One time through the lineup for each of them should be safe.

       This is a different looking team when Bellinger goes yard.

       If we hit, we win.

       1. Yep, with Belli and Muncy hitting, we wont lose. I can’t get over Smith as the DH. This is from the guy most of us said couldn’t hit. He has sure turned things around and it couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy. If only he could develop a stronger arm throwing out base runners. This is a weakness that the Dodgers have and teams should take advantage of this. Fortunately, it is not a lethal one.

          1. Keep in mind that May and Buehler are much easier to run on than CK. It affects his throwing numbers a lot.

54. It’s Mookie’s world and we’re just lucky to be living in it!

55. Gonsolin tomorrow. Go Blue!

    1. Roberts just needs to let him pitch. Both Goose and May have been filthy this year. Let them go eat some innings.

56. Funny to read comments suggesting Robert’s took Kershaw out to soon For a change.

57. One thing about the forearm bash thing that injured Belli’s shoulder. Then next time you watch the replay of Kike’s three home run game against the Cubs in 2017 you will notice that Kike also hurt Puig with one of those forearm bashes.

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