The Dodgers are Finished!

Posted By on January 7, 2020

Done. Zip. Zilch… except for Blake Treinen, Jimmy Nelson, and Edubray Ramos… all of whom are a bit of a risk, but they all have a high upside. However, other than that, the Dodgers have been very conspicuous by their lack of deals. Most fans are agast! Many are appalled. Most are insane! Plaschke is capitalizing on it. Hey, it’s easy to write what the fans want to read, but let’s not forget who fans are:

Fanatic, def: a person filled with excessive and single-minded zeal, especially for an extreme religious or political cause.

Most fans have no idea how to run a business, much less a team and they are losing their freaking minds over the inaction by Andrew Friedman during the Hot Stove Period. There were a number of relievers that many fans thought would upgrade the Dodgers Bullpen. Let me address some of those:

  • Drew Pomeranz – He was very good out of the bullpen the last two months of 2019, but he has had a very checkered career. MLB.Radio said this: “This is a big overpay, but AJ Preller has to do these kinds of deals to save his job.” In other words, he made that deal to serve himself. Pomeranz may or may not live up to even 2 years of that deal, but no way I would have done that.
  • Will Harris – You can make a good case that Will Harris was worth 8 Years/$24 million to the Nats. It may be a good deal to the Nats because they need to win NOW as Sherzer and Strasburg are aging. They have a limited window and know it, so a contract with one or two years of sunk costs is not a big deal to them.
  • Dylan Betances – In my opinion, he is a much bigger risk than Treinen because of age, usage, and injury. He has been very good for 5 years, but that is in the rear-view mirror. I seriously doubt he is that guy again.

The Dodgers took a chance on Joe Kelly and AJ Pollock last year. It did not work out, but maybe it will this year. Will Harris didn’t become Will Harris until he was 30. Even Mookie Betts has up and down years. The jury is out on Blake Treinen, Jimmy Nelson, and Edubray Ramos and I would not mind adding one more arm to the pen. My choice was Daniel Hudson, but the Nats paid the Dodger castoff $11 million over 2 years with a chance to earn more. No thank you!

Tony Cingrani might be a good option if he is really healthy, but who knows? Brandon Kintzler might be worth a 1 year/$4 million deal, but he’s 35. Gonsolin, Baez, Kelly, Treinen, Nelson, Ramos, and Jansen are all potential plus options in the bullpen, but they have not always been. Unfortunately, most others are in the same category. The thing is: some GM will overpay… trying to save his job.

I feel like you can change the names, but still have the same bullpen problem. Changing the names doesn’t necessarily change or fix the bullpen problem. Sometimes the problem fixes itself… just with another year or from within.

How do you value players? OPS, SLG, BA, WAR, and others are useful but OPS+ takes a player’s on-base plus slugging percentage and normalizes the number across the entire league. It accounts for external factors like ballparks. It then adjusts so a score of 100 is league average, and 150 is 50 percent better than the league average. Here are the TOP 10 in OPS+:

1. Trout • LAA 185
2. Yelich • MIL 179
3. Bellinger • LAD 169
4. Cruz • MIN 166
5. Bregman • HOU 162
6. Rendon • WSN 153
7. Springer • HOU 150
8. Marte • ARI 149
9. Alonso • NYM 148
10. McNeil • NYM 144

Among teams in 2019, Houston, NY, and Minnesota were the top 3 teams in OPS, while the Dodgers were a close 4th. It should not be lost on anyone that the Dodgers do not use the DH while the other teams do. If the Dodgers had the DH, it’s likely they may have the #1 OPS+ team in MLB. However, they are #1 in all of the NL. My point is that offensively, the Dodgers are in great shape. AND THEY DON’T CHEAT!

I guess it never hurts to add Betts or Lindor, but the offense is very good. Verdugo is the Wild Card. If healthy, he is a key cog in the offense, but of little value right about now in any trade. I think some fans (OK, a lot of fans) just want to see the Dodgers do something… even if it is wrong! That way they can blame someone and if they don’t do anything, they can still play the blame game.

The blame game is played by toxic people who eat ingest poison and think someone else will die if they lay the blame on them. Sorry dudes, but that poison is eating them up… not me. I just don’t enjoy hearing it. Neither do many others.

So the Dodgers may be done… or not, but there is always the Trade Deadline. Lay off the poison!

This article has 41 Comments

  1. “My point is that offensively, the Dodgers are in great shape.”

    Yep, I agree with that. I’ve never understood the fascination that a lot of Dodger fans have for a trade for either Lindor or Betts.

    If the Dodgers have a weakness, it’s pitching. The bullpen more specifically. The Dodgers MIGHT have a starting pitching weakness, but I have confidence in May and Gonsolin in the 4 and 5 slots in the starting rotation behind Buehler, Kershaw, Maeda.

    I know Mark likes Urias in the starting rotation and I won’t disagree, but man, Urias is a valuable piece of the bullpen. His stats are WAY better as a reliever.

    1. Yes, Urias is very good. Period!

      He was forced into relieving just to limit his innings, but you never put a guy that has his stuff and 4 or 5 pitches in the bullpen when they can start. There aren’t many of those guys.

      I think Julio will be a horse. His injury was of the “freak” variety and he is fine. He belongs in the rotation due to his repertoire.

  2. Totally, 100% agree with you Mark, I hate reading so many pointless things and exaggerations in other pages of many “fans” that even make me want to hit them in the face to shut up, but I understand the frustration of so many years without being champions, you have to be patient, the championships are won in October, not in November to March

  3. I agree that Alex Verdugo is the wild card. The Dodgers need what he brings to the table. You also connected with Dodgers fans just want something to happen. Lot of anxiety and more questions than answers.

    I think Bill Plunkett (Orange County Register) made a good point the other night on SportsNetLA, the Dodgers channel, on the Access SportsNet Dodgers show saying the Dodgers are a victim of expectations … which they’ve created.

    From Andrew Friedman’s press conference after losing game five that maybe something is missing to Dave Roberts talk of roster turnover at the winter meetings and everybody indicating the Dodgers were pursuing elite talent, it more or less set the stage in terms of fan expectations. Anything short of signing a Cole or Rendon or acquiring a Betts or Lindor in trade would leave fans disappointed and in some cases angry.

    For what it’s worth, neither Plunkett or David Vassegh believe the Dodgers will acquire Betts or Lindor. Vassegh insists that Boston isn’t trading Betts unless it’s at the July trade deadline and the Red Sox are out of the race and don’t believe they can re-sign him. Plunkett points out the Dodgers aren’t trading Gavin Lux, who they believe is in the same stratosphere as previous prospects Cody Bellinger, Cory Seager and Walker Buehler. So no Lindor deal. It also makes no sense to include Dustin May, who will end up in the rotation, in any deal.

    But Vassegh believes the Dodgers are working on a deal that will improve the roster prior to the beginning of spring training. They both expect the Dodgers to be active at the trade deadline.

    But while fans may be somewhat anxious, the Dodgers, as currently constructed, are a very good team. Everybody in baseball seems to agree upon that.

    I know you’re not a fan Mark, but I expect big things from AJ Pollock, who, if healthy, can be an impact player. Since he has been the victim of freak injuries, I see no reason why he can’t produce at a high level. When he gets on a roll, he can carry a team. I’ve seen it. His new workout routine, creating more flexibility will enhance his defensive skills. I expect the bullpen to be pretty good and I haven’t been a fan of pen in a long time.

    Good column today and excellent timing. People are beginning to bounce off the walls.

  4. I know Kasten, Friedman, and Roberts said they would be active, but to prevent other teams from underpaying for free-agents, they have to say that. I never place any value on what people in those positions say. It’s all calculated. They can’t and won’t say what is really happening.

    1. I have to disagree on this a bit. I think AF had every intention of getting one of the top 3. I think the Dodgers were all in on Cole. I think they deluded themselves in thinking that if they offered Cole a good deal he would stay in Southern California. I think they miscalculated Cole’s passion for NYY and NYY’s passion for Cole. The Dodgers were not going to break up that marriage.

      I also believe that the Dodgers were caught off guard with Rendon. I do not believe they would have paid him $250MM. I think they misread Rendon’s statements about wanting a shorter term contract, which is something right up AF’s wheelhouse. They had no idea that Rendon did not want the “Hollywood” lifestyle. Why make an offer to a player who does not want to play for you? That makes absolutely no sense.

      Stras was never an option. He was Washington or SD.

      AF does look for the elite player. In 2016, AF was looking to land Cole Hamels. Philly wanted Seager and others. Hard Pass. He “settled” for a pitcher with the best ERA in the AL at the time, Rich Hill. They also could not count on Andre Ethier, and while he did not give the Dodgers what they needed, they got the LHH Josh Reddick who was slashing .296/.368/.449/.816. Most laud Alex Verdugo, but his numbers last year were remarkably similar to Reddick’s in Oakland; .294/.342/.475/.817.

      2017 – There were two top pitchers available and AF chose the wrong one (IMO) but for a reason that many refuse to consider; the had to get below the CBT threshold that winter. Thus, Darvish and his walk year was decided the better choice. Verlander had another year at an amount that would put them above the threshold. But Darvish was still considered an elite pitcher. It just did not work.

      2018 – The Dodgers did not plan on losing Seager, but when they did, AF traded for Machado. Machado is considered elite. As it turned out, he was essential for LAD to get to the playoffs, but not so much once they got there.

      2019 – AF spent his time trying to get Felipe Vazquez out of Pittsburgh. Vazquez was one of the very best closers in the game at the time. By the time AF told Neal Huntington to pound sand for his request for Gavin Lux, all of the other relievers were taken. AF made a calculated gamble to get the difference making Vazquez, and whiffed (for good reason).

      AF does his salary dumping trades in the Winter, and elite additions at the trade deadline. There is no salary dumping needed this winter, so unless AF could get one of the top three, he was going for seemingly the top two position players who were deemed available; Frankie Lindor and Mookie Betts. I am not a fan of changing the entire infield for Lindor, and there is no way that AF is going to trade Lux, just as he refused to trade Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, and Urias.

      On the other hand, I would love to see Mookie Betts in RF for LAD. There is every expectation that Boston is NOT going to trade him at all, and AF is not going to offer top prospects for a rental just to land him. There are no Aces available right now, including Mike Clevinger, so AF will wait until the trade deadline when he usually goes big game hunting.

  5. While I agree that Verdugo is key, IMO, the biggest key will be whether Corey Seager can come back to the 1st two years of Seager.

    I also do not believe we can minimize the importance of solid pitching from the “kids”; Urias/May/Gonsolin.

    This current team has a lot of questions. Besides those above:
    1. Will AJ and JT stay healthy for the year?
    2. Will KJ be able to bounce back?
    3. Will Blake Treinen find his 2018 persona?
    4. Will Belli be the April/May version or the August and playoffs version?
    5. Will Max and Joc continue to slug?
    6. Will Kershaw learn to become more strategic with his pitching now that he no longer intimidates/dominates?
    7. Will Will Smith suffer an Austin Barnes sophomore slump?

    Depending on the answers above, the Dodgers could either win 110 games or find themselves in a dogfight with AZ for the NL West.

    Once they make the playoffs, there will be another question. Will they be able to play an AL team in the WS that does not cheat?

    1. Most of these questions, if answered negatively, can be handled internally, although that would not be optimum. However, if Will Smith takes a huge step backward and Barnes does not rebound, then the Dodgers would be in a world of hurt. I don’t think Rocky Gale provides a solution and Kaybear is probably a season away.

      1. Agreed that the questions can be handled internally. Their depth is second to none. If Smith regressing occurs while the other questions (or most of the others) have positive outcomes, even Smith regressing is not going to derail the team. They won 106 games last year with Barnes as the primary catcher for most of the year. Both Smith and Barnes are exceptional catchers. Offense is a plus. How many games did CT3 fill in Corey in 2018 before the Dodgers acquired Machado. They were in 1st place at the All Star Game, and Machado was traded right after.

  6. There is no question the Dodgers deliberately mislead for a variety of reasons, especially when it comes to potential trades. Friedman really doesn’t want other teams knowing which direction the team is going or what the thinking is … the Dodgers are always linked to potential free agents or trades. Two years ago Friedman said they enjoyed seeing the Dodgers linked to all these potential deals, most they were never in on.

    If you would have told me at the beginning of the off season that the Dodgers would make a $300 million, eight year offer to Gerrit Cole, I would have said that Cole would be a Dodger. No one will come close to that offer. Never thought anybody would offer that kind of money for a pitcher. But there is always one, totally off the wall crazy and this year it was the Yankees. Obviously they believe he’s a difference maker.

    So I think the Dodgers were serious. Kasten said Friedman believed that Cole was that difference maker. As to Rendon, not that serious. Yes, they wanted a right handed bat, but elite pitching and improving the bullpen were the real goals.

    Friedman is very creative in trades, but there is a certain logic to the approach and he doesn’t trade elite prospects.

    The Dodgers are no doubt disappointed they didn’t get Cole.

  7. I would not trade with the Dodgers during the off season, if I was the the GM of another team. All you have to do is look at the trades AF has made. Not many of those trades have worked out for the other team. AF has identified his untouchables and will not trade them. AF will trade those kids he thinks may or may not make it. I would trade with the Dodgers before the trade deadline. If my team was out of the play offs and I had a very good player that I thought I could not sign, I would be willing to accept those kids AF would trade. The Dodgers have a very good farm system. If I got three Dodger prospect, one may be very good.

    1. Key graph from this interesting McCollough piece:

      Another wrinkle worth considering; The Dodgers are not enamored with the idea of absorbing David Price’s contract as part of a package involving Betts, according to people familiar with the situation. But what about Chris Sale? If Sale shows that his elbow issues are behind him, he might form a more attractive pairing with Betts, if Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom decides he should dump salary this season.

      I really like how Moura and McCullough seem to have good, sourced reporting.

        1. I think that could be possible, but Sale would have to prove he is healthy, which did not look good last year.

  9. Cole, Stasburg and Rendon didn’t want to be Dodgers. Can’t blame AF for that. End of story. And AC you are so right. There are a lot of questions about this team as is. I would include the health of Verdugo and how good will Lux be. A lot of things have to go right for this team to win it. Too many in my opinion. We’ll have to hope Cleveland, Boston and the Mets have down years and are sellers at the deadline next year. Yes I’m dreaming about DeGrom

    1. I was going to just leave it as for me the key was not Verdugo, but Seager. And then I could not stop myself. I can put together a list of questions for every ML team. All teams have to overcome their obstacles, but what makes the Dodgers so special, everything has to go wrong for them not to be successful during the season. They have so many weapons and so much depth that they can overcome obstacles and win 106 games as they did last year. Unfortunately, the Dodgers ran into a team that seemingly had divine intervention in the NLDS, beginning with the Trent Grisham error in the Wild Card game.

      I do not expect all of the obstacles to have positive outcomes, but most will. And then come trade deadline, some team will back off their outlandish demands from the Dodgers, and accept players from the Dodgers who may not be top tier, but are better than what other teams will give them.

  10. I guess the reason that I agree with Mark on Verdugo is the energy and emotion he brings. The back issue is the question and therefore brings uncertainty. If he’s healthy moving forward that’s huge. The reason I didn’t consider Seager as the key is that I expect him to bounce back in a big way. I feel really good about him moving forward. Some people have forgotten just how good he is … But you make a good point, AC. The McCullough piece in the Athletic is excellent. Idahoal makes an excellent point. If I was another GM I’d be worried about getting my pocket picked.

  11. Yes, there are questions for every team, but the Dodgers have more depth and more contingencies than any MLB team I can think of.

    On Seager: I assume that he will get better (and he was pretty dang good) by just being able to focus on conditioning and baseball stuff. Last off-season, he was focused on rehab and just getting healthy. Using Fangraphs WAR, Seager ranked #13 among all MLB SS.

    In 2017, he was #1, Lindor was #2. In 2016, Seager was also #1, Machado #2 and Lindor #3. I find it ridiculous some fans want to trade him and spend huge assets to get Lindor, who MAY NOT be as good as Seager.

    I expect Corey to hit .300 with 25-35 HR and .900 OPS.

    Alex Verdugo was hitting .318 when he started experiencing back or “core” problems. No one has said for sure what exactly was wrong. He had a .361 OB% in April, .371 in May and .349 in June, before struggling in July and August, which was likely caused by his injury.

    We don’t know if he will be OK or not, but if he is healthy, he is a .300 hitter with .370+ OB%. I am rooting for him to be healthy. His “edge” is good for the team.

    1. During the slow days of the off season writers made up stories and Seager was a hot topic. Once that was out there people played with the what if Seager were traded. Seager for some reason is believed to be a hard sign when he is a free agent while Lindor is believed to be made for Hollywood.

      Combine that with comments Friedman has made about wanting hitters that implement the plan and people leap to that being pointed at Seager.

      Everybody likes Seager and would love for him to be as good as we all believe he can be and do it as a Dodger long term.

  12. I just read this on Twitter:

    “Since 2014 the only pitching prospects to have a K-BB > 20%, GB < 40%, and a HR/FB < 5% at High-A or higher are:
    Tyler Glasnow
    Josh Hader
    Josiah Gray
    Why these particular stats are important: High K-BB = High K, low BB, or both; low GB + low HR/FB = quality contact prevention."

    I'm not sure who "eccentricladdie" is, but he was retweeted by "Future Dodgers." Mr. Gray is keeping some very good company.

    3. Because he is a #3… but he could be a #2 if he keeps progressing and I think he will.

      He got better as he went to higher levels.

      The coaches rave about his ability and teach-ability!

  14. Just yesterday Glaser projected Gray as a 4-5 starter in his chat. I thought he had more upside than that. Any way by 2021 a rotation including Buehler, Urias, May, Gonsolin and Gray along with Kersh and Maeda looks pretty impressive. I’m with MT on Urias. I think he will special!

    1. thanks. Had not read that chat. For Dodgers (with Buehler, May, and Urias in front of him) a no. 4 seems right. Gray only started pitching full time as a college junior (Division II) and 1.5 seasons of professional ball — having progressed to AA with a 2.75 ERA, I think he would be considered a top of rotation guy for Angels, Mariners, etc.

  16. Think about this for a moment, Gavin Lux is an SS converted to 2B, that brings his reach to both sides and his arm from SS to 2B, he has soft hands, those athletic abilities make him a defensive 2B well above average.
    The Scouting Report says that the offensive has a potential of 25-25, so Lux projects as the best 2B since J. Robinson, can you see why the Dodgers consider him a special player?
    LET THE KIDS PLAY.

  18. But what does thenpen look like? Santana, White, Gonsolin, Sheffield, DeGuess? We need some of these young guys to star as well

      1. Don’t forget Carrillo, Grove, Pepiot, Boyer …. maybe Kasowski and Alvarez (I’m stretching).

        But wait… there’s more: Jackson, Rooney, Ortiz, Uceta, Rodriguez, Gonzalez… OK – I’ll stop!

          1. OK, Book it!

            Seriously… if you have a good Farm System and Great Development, you don’t have to trade nearly as much. I can see it….

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