Let’s get this out of the way: The Dodgers have a closer… his name is Kenley Jansen. He had an off-year in 2019 and the Dodger coaches, as well as Kenley himself, believe he will return to form in 2020. It’s not like this has never happened to other relievers before. Even the greatest ones (well maybe except Mariano Rivera) had off-years.
The great Trevor Hoffman had many up and down years. In 1993, he had a 4.31 ERA and followed it up with a 2.57 ERA the next year. Then the next four years his ERAs were 3.88, 2.25, 2.66 and 1.42. That was not the last of his up and down seasons, but the point is that even the great ones slip sometimes.
Though overshadowed by the likes of Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman and probably even Billy Wagner, Joe Nathan is one of the best closers of all-time. His 89.3 save percentage is better than Rivera, Hoffman, Wagner and the rest. Kenley Jansen has a career 88.7% save percentage. He is 6/10 of a point behind the greatest closer of all time (percentage-wise)! Let’s not give up on him just yet.
So who is Blake Treinen? Is he the pitcher who put up the best season ever by a relief pitcher in 2018 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.834 WHIP or is he the guy he followed that up with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.619 WHIP in 2019?
I am going to suggest he is neither… but he might be closer to the former than the latter. You never know what is happening in an athlete’s life, if they have any injuries or some other personal issue, but in 6 years in the majors, Blake Treinen has a 2.97 ERA. While he may never duplicate his 2018 season (no one may ever do that), he is pretty dang good. He’s the set-up man the Dodgers had with Brandon Morrow… maybe filthier!
Relief pitchers are notoriously unpredictable and have good years followed by bad years. Blake Treinen is also that guy. Here are his ERA’s in “Even” years:
- 2.49
- 2.28
- 0.78
“Odd” Years:
- 3.86
- 3.93
- 4.91
Do the math. It’s is 2020. It’s an “even” year, I believe (5 out of 4 people struggle with math). Watch out! It’s “Beast Mode” time. Maybe “Machine Gun” Kelly finally earns his keep too. Baez, Kelly, and Treinen in the bullpen with Chicken Strip and Tony Gonsolin? Sounds like a plan to me.
Blake has some really good stuff. In 2019, he relied primarily on his Sinker (97mph) and Fourseam Fastball (97mph), also mixing in a Cutter (93mph) and Slider (89mph). He also throws a Change-up. I am sure the Dodgers believe that it’s what he throws… when as to his issues last year. I think he is a very good bounceback candidate and, while it is a calculated risk to give him $10 Million, it could end up being the best money ever spent if he ends up being “the bridge.”
Other News
- After releasing JT Chargois to play in Japan, the decision to release Yimi Garcia looks less positive… maybe dumb! I still think he would have been a nice piece in the pen in 2020. I will be watching him in Miami…
- The team with the highest payroll (Cubs) did not make the playoffs in 2019, while the team with the lowest (Rays) did.
- The team that won the most games in MLB in the 2010’s never made it to the World Series during that 10-year run. That would be the Yankees… who coincidentally, had the highest payroll as well.
- Of course, the Dodgers were second in wins and in payroll during that same span and they also did not win a World Series… but they got there twice. So, the Dodgers need to spend more money… WHY?
- Think about that: The teams that won the most and spent the most never got a World Series Championship. So, stop your hissy fits!
- How about this? The player who led the NL in HR’s had never hit on in the majors prior to 2019. This is baseball, boys and girls where stuff happens.
- From MLBtradeRumors:
What do you get for the roster that has everything? A bigger star, of course. That’s what the Dodgers have reportedly set out to find, eschewing marginal upgrades and allowing Hyun-Jin Ryu to depart via free agency while stalking bigger game.
With the open market now rather picked over, the Dodgers appear to be focused on structuring complicated trades involving some of the game’s best players. Francisco Lindor? Mike Clevinger? Mookie Betts? Intriguing targets abound. Whether any will land in Chavez Ravine remains unknown
.If the Dodgers whiff on their primary objective, will the offseason be a bust? Perhaps, though there’s still ample talent on hand to sweep away the NL West for the eighth-straight time and the summer trade deadline will offer new opportunities to add. There’s an argument that the club could really use another quality late-inning arm, even after a $10MM roll of the dice on Blake Treinen, but that’s about as close to a true “need” as you get with this stacked roster.”
Today’s Profound Music
I can’t believe I just discovered this guy. All of his music is great, but this one happens to be so profound. To our Vets: Thank You for Your Service! Listen to this. You will be glad you did. I love this guy and this song!
Very thought provoking song. I’ll only add that bullies must be stopped, like Hitler or Saddam. Not every way is our responsibility and some don’t need to be fought. But classicism might be fine on the schoolyard where you can try and avoid a bully, maybe even get punched, but if I see him bullying a young kid or a girl then damn straight I’m going to step in!
Great song Mark! Thanks for sharing. I had not heard of him before.
It would be nice if Treinen has a season like his 2018 for us.
As far as the payroll, one of the reasons the Dodgers and Yankees had to spend money is they cannot draft their way as Tampa can. The Dodgers annual position in the draft puts them at a disadvantage in relation to some teams. They could tank like Houston, the cubs etc and rebuild. It is very tricky to win and build simultaneously. That is why the international market, blue light specials, and strategic trades like the farmer trade are necessary. To really get the elite talent is very difficult. In chasing Cole, lindor, stras, these were high drafts the Dodgers mostly don’t have a chance to get until they are over priced.
Beginning the off season Cole was who I wanted. I would not have paid his salary even though he might turn out to be worth it. But, we had the pitcher of the decade, a sure hall of famer, a high draft pick and still no World Series. You can’t win with one guy. The Dodgers tried by not building a staff in support of kershaw. The Yankees have put a very good rotation and bullpen around Cole. Barring injuries the Yankees are the best and I don’t think it is that close with Houston and LA following. Hopefully Houston is blown out of the water with their cheating and they should be.
In a lot of ways the nationals mirrored the year before Red Sox. They used price as a starter and reliever and evoldi. The nats with stras, scherzer, and Corbin. I think Rendon played over his head. He never did that well in the playoffs but the Dodgers got him going. The Red Sox mvp is not even in baseball. Pearce I think was mvp and if not he played waaaaay over his head.
2020 is going to be a different type of year for LA. Can the young guys step up? It is going to be exciting to find out.
I think Treinen is a good gamble. Ferguson could also be a good piece in the bull pen. I just do not understand why relief pitchers are good one year and not good the next year. The only answers I can come up with are injuries, over worked, or personal problems.
Well, the Dodgers are in great shape heading into 2020. No, they didn’t get Gerrit Cole, the real difference maker (if he stays healthy) among the free agents. I’m still amazed that they went as high as reported, $300 million. That no doubt will be a bad contract in the final years, but I’m guessing the Yankees won’t care if he produces in the first five years.
Will the Dodgers still make a move? They didn’t sign AJ Pollock until Jan. 24. They’re reportedly still engaged in trade talks, maybe with the Cubs? Or some off the radar deal?
I kinda like the bullpen. I think Kenley Jansen bounces back after spending last winter dealing with heart issues. Joe Kelly has some of absolute best stuff on the planet and there were times he was simply lights out. Add Blake Treinen and the current bullpen depth, this could be an incredible group of relievers.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Dodgers add a couple of flyers, like Walker or Nelson. Or maybe they bring back Hill. They will need to find someone to eat innings at some point to keep Julio Urias, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin fresh for the playoffs. Ross Stripling could put together a year. He certainly has the stuff to do it.
Still see LA trying to clean up the outfield. AJ Pollock had an awful start, but was very good in the second half. He’s spent the off season working on flexibility in order to regain his defensive skills. He may prove to be the big right handed bat. He’s certainly motivated.
Based on Stan Kasten’s recent comment about the Dodgers focus on staying an elite team every year, I just don’t see them trading a bunch of elite prospects, like Gavin Lux or May, for someone like Betts or Lindor. And Colorado isn’t trading Nolan Arenado to the Dodgers. More likely they use the farm to replenish the team, like they’ve been doing, while using some of the prospects where they have depth for trades, either in January or at the July deadline.
Have a Happy and safe New Year.
Happy New Year, MT! And of course, AC, DC, 2D2 and now JB, what a great team you’re assembling. You’re right, the team is still stacked. Treinen is not just the bridge, he’s also insurance. I agree that guys have bad years, and can bounce back in a big way. Good thing we didn’t give up on Belli. There’s no sure things in baseball, the team is deep and talented and we have a top prospect waiting to make an impact next year at a position that’s been a problem for some time now.
I think the back end of the bullpen has a chance to be very good. All 4 of those guys have really live arms especially if Kenley can be more consistent. The front end will be at least solid, consisting of a long man/swing man in Stripling, a couple of solid lefties to choose from a pool of four (Kolarek, Alexander, Ferguson and newcoming Gonzalez) plus Casey Sadler. Floro, Santana, Sborz and White are additional depth pieces. May and Gonsolin will start, one in the Majors and the other as depth in the Minors.
Bueller, Kershaw and Maeda anchor the rotation and Urias should have been a starter long ago. May and Gonsolin could be a little rushed. Nelson or Walker would be great high-upside guys adds on short deals that would give May and Gonsolin more time to develop.
Yes, the team will probably run away with the West, but are we in a better position to get that ring? Realistically, it’s hard to count on 2 kids in the rotation and a rookie second baseman to put us over the top on a team that’s very left handed again. I don’t subscribe to the philosophy of “Get there, get hot and anything can happen” strategy for post-season dominance. How well did that work out for the Braves in the 90’s?
I looked at the latest “Opening Day Lineup” that you posted the other day and the things that stood our were…
1) Leadoff hitter is not fast and his OBP is just okay.
2) 5 lefties in a row to start the game allows the opposing pitcher to get into a groove.
3) It was odd not seeing Joc batting leadoff. But, it’s also odd having one of your slowest players bat leadoff. Why not take a chance and have someone fast in that spot?
I also can’t help but think some of our good lefty bats will be platooned in order to stack more and inferior righties (Kike, Taylor, White) to face lefty pitchers. I think I’ve heard this song before.
I also can’t help but think I’m being overly optimistic about the rotation. It will come down to stuff vs. experience.
To Idahoal’s question above on reliever inconsistency. Generally there are a few reasons that have been told to me, and somewhat corroborated by a former ML reliever. The first one is obvious…most relievers are not as good as starting pitchers. Reliever’s may have one pitch and if it is not effective, then the results show. Starters have at least two and many (the elites) have three plus pitches (or two plus and one above average). If one is not working, they can fall back on one of their other pitches. How many times have we heard a starter say…”I couldn’t spot my fastball, so I had to rely on my slider or curve or change…”. If KJ cannot command his cutter, he is just not good enough with his slider.
A second reason was that relievers do not get to pitch out of their problems. How many times does a starter have a bad 1st and then settle into the game and dominate. Pitching (and hitting) is muscle memory and command is not automatic. So if your arm gets in the wrong slot, a reliever does not have the time to find it. Plus, most relievers do not pitch in the pen between games because they may be asked to pitch that night, so they cannot work on mechanics between games as do the starters. So a pitcher…say Caleb Ferguson…who cannot command his bread and butter pitch, his curve, the only way for him to find that slot angle or release point is in a game. When he finds it (as he did in 2018) he was very effective, and when he couldn’t (2019) he wasn’t very effective.
And injuries do play a part. Little nagging injuries that a pitcher tries to work around may not be able to with that single elite pitch, and his secondary pitch is just not good enough. Sometimes when a reliever is having a bad year, he tends to press, and relievers are most often in high leverage situations when even the slightest mistake is taken advantage of. The reliever told me that he was sent down to rest the “injury”, but to also work out the mechanics that was affecting his delivery. He told me all teams have their phantom IL stints, but no other team is as deep as the Dodgers who can take advantage of the IL trips better than any other team. Thus many relievers are left to find it themselves at the ML level.
As far as KJ, can we all at least remember that he had significant heart surgery the winter before the 2019 season. Is it possible that he never got to rehab from the surgery and just went to ST to get into playing shape (body and mind)? And when he was on the mound, could he have been thinking about how his heart would hold up in these high leverage situations? I do not know the man, and I would not presume to understand what that significant heart procedure did to him physically or psychologically. But I do know that he is already working out, and maybe 2020 becomes that bounce back year. Yes he has lost velo on that cutter, but great players find a way of overcoming those issues…a better secondary pitch, working on spin rate for later movement, watching film to find out where his arm slot was when he was effective (2017) and when he wasn’t (2019). Age does have a way of catching up, even to the best, but KJ at least earns the right to be considered the closer, until he isn’t.
For all of you who have given up on KJ, I say fine, don’t pick him for your fantasy baseball team. For me, I am sticking with the doctors and baseball experts to determine if KJ can still be a closer. The ones who know him best are not giving up on him, so why should I. I choose to believe that it wasn’t KJ who failed in the NLDS. It was Doc who failed to bring him in when he should have.
Pitchers will be known for either getting the job done or not during the playoffs. But during the season there will be years where one bad outing can inflate an ERA and if a pitcher has less than 70 innings pitched, that one or two bad outings can hide an otherwise good year.
Also there will be years where hard hit balls will be caught and soft hit balls will go for hits. So without including average velocity of contact and other newer stats, a reliever might have a better or worse year than the first simple answer might indicate.
Twins sign Rich Hill. MLB trade rumors.
“Hill is guaranteed $3MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets. His contract includes a hefty $9.5MM in total available incentives which can be met by recording only 15 starts and/or 75 innings thrown.”
AND Homer Bailey
Happy for Hill. Incentive laden contract which will work well for him.
Apparently Boston really does need to reduce their payroll and they need relief pitchers.
I think there is a good chance Betts will be a Dodger before too long. If the Dodgers put Gonsolin, Fergusson, and May in the pen it will be crowded. Maybe Adam Kolarek and Dylan Floro would interest Boston plus Pollock or will it take Verdugo to make the deal?
Assume you are the new GM of the Red Sox, and your job depended on the players you acquire for Betts, and getting below the CBT threshold. What is the minimum package of players would you accept from the Dodgers.
Narrowing down your question to include only one year of Betts as if he were a loaner and then he goes back to Boston or to another team willing to pay him what Cole got, I would want more than I would get.
It’s hard for me to equate Verdugo with an AAV of something like $4M for the next 5 years and one year of Betts at $26M. Or, would I prefer 4 more years of Pollock at a $12M AAV versus keeping Betts and trying to sign him for $35M AAV for 9 years.
I think I would try to get Verdugo and Gonsolin for Price and Betts and minimize the dollars I would have to pay out to offset Price’s contract. If I could get rid of most of Price’s salary I would then try to sign Betts as a free agent plus have Gonsolin.
If I were the Dodgers I would only want Betts and would offer Verdugo straight up. Or, offer Pollock and Maeda and Kelly and then overwhelm Betts with an extension offer.
For those who were hoping Tyler Thornburg might be of some help to our bullpen in 2020, he will be signing a minor league contract with the Reds. He was with OKC briefly last year and didn’t pitch well, but I know there were some here who thought he might straighten himself out at some point.
It is really difficult to see hill and ryu gone. I really thought we would work out a deal for hill but Minnesota gives him what we couldn’t. They are counting on him to be at the top of the rotation in the second half. Who knows if injuries will slow that process but the twins took a gamble. They had less options so they took the risk.
I think somebody can get Betts. Hopefully us but hope is not a strategy. Boston seemingly wanting to reduce payroll with the idea of getting Betts back in free agency. They also want to win so a deadline deal might work. I would say the cards could be in on him, maybe the brewers,Mets. If it is just money the Dodgers should go for him. I know they will want something else but I am sure AF is cautious.
How about the Dodgers trade pollock, Sierra, and Kelly to Boston for Betts and price plus cash
Man, that is some fine stuff you are smoking. 😉
Lol that’s true but Boston would get salary relief for one year, pollock could give them an outfield replacement, and they would have 2 bp pieces. Ok throw in stripling. With Betts projected salary and free agency they can’t expect much. What would it take for Betts or price and Betts?
Well, that closes the door on Rich Hill. He was very likable and solid to very good at times. He did a good job considering his injury plagued career, but I’m happy that we didn’t bring him back at 39 years old with a balky knee and an elbow hanging on by a thread. We probably would have been better off with Gonsolin on the roster and Urias in the rotation last year.
I would have welcomed Hill back… even if he didn’t throw a pitch… for $2 Million a year.
So, Bye Bye!
Not me. Each post season there are two things for certain. 1) Doc will not trust several bullpen pieces. 2) Doc will not trust Rich Hill to pitch more than 4 innings. That is a recipe for disaster as we have seen.
Time to try something new.
I prefer to believe that Doc will learn from his mistakes.
Tommy was not a great tactician.
When Doc shows signs of learning, I’ll agree with that notion. But, from the looks of last year’s post-season, he looks like he’s getting worse.
As far as Tommy goes, we was good enough of a tactician to win 2 World Series and a Gold Medal, all with underdog teams. Compared to Doc, he was Albert Einstein. The only knock I ever hear about Tommy is Niedenfuer. He more than made up with it on Gibby.
Starters:
Kershaw
Buehler
Urias
Madea
May
Pen:
Gonsolin
Chicken Strip
Floro
Kelly
Alexander
Baez
Treinen
Jansen
I would love to see Alex Wood wrap his mind around being a reliever!
Although I would love to see Gonsolin in the pen this year, I think that severely cripples the much needed depth in the rotation. Judging by past experience, I tend to believe that the Dodgers will have 2 lefties in the pen, especially when they have 4 to choose from. Judging by last year, I think Sadler is ahead of Floro on the depth chart right now, especially since Sadler doesn’t have options remaining and Floro does.
I would love to see Wood toss his bubble gum in the trash and not on the infield.
Can you guys believe it’s the start of the ‘20’s? Whenever I think about that I remember my grandparents talking about the 1920s. It’s surreal.
My father was born in 1921.
I was born in 1953.
My youngest son was born in 1999.
My youngest son was named after his grandfather… whom he never met.
I can’t believe he has been gone for 24 years.
My grandmother was born in 1895 and I barely remember her stories about her childhood without cars. She died when I was 9.
My grandfather was born in 1905 in a small town in Idaho. No heater and no plumbing until he was an adult. I can’t believe how much things have changed in a century.
My kids can’t believe I grew up without the internet.
Where will we all be on December 31, 2029? My kids will be all grown up and probably gone. At least we’ll always have baseball.
Moaning about a 41 year wait, Doc’s latest Post Season Bullpen meltdown, and isn’t it time to say we have to face facts, Clayton just ain’t gonna get us over the line.
love it, Wat!
Let’s breakdown the starting lineup as of now: sp Buehler ace will only get better in the next few years assuming healthy. Can match with any opposing number 1. Pederson/pollock left field should combine for 50 homers with good defense and good obp. Bellinger cf mvp enough said. Verdugo in rf above average with an exceptional arm providing plus defense. Turner 3b clutch hitter and good hitter period, age showing on defense, oft injured, window closing. Seager ss, overcoming injuries, above average d and o, needs plate discipline to become a star. Lux 2b no one knows but projects above average in all areas. Muncy 1b junkyard dog, clutch, power and high obp, ks a lot and low average with average to above d. Smith c ranks high with the glove and will probably rank above ave offensively for catchers. Starting lineup is very good. We are probably going to need someone at third for 40-50 games. Who will that be? Probably muncy with Rios and white picking up at first or third. Will verdugo be ready to go? If not, can anybody say Betts? Probably not so Taylor and kike will figure in there.
We certainly have a talented first 9 and a solid bench. I hope turner can play more and improve d so I think we are most vulnerable there. If he goes down we lose the clutch rh bat and the leadership. Otherwise rf would be the second area of concern. Seagers propensity for injury is a concern but otherwise he will be good.
One thing is for sure. The Dodgers are short on pitching if most of us are talking about names like:
Sadler 731 OPS, 1.36 WHIP career as a reliever.
Alexander 679 OPS 1.35 WHIP career as a reliever.
Ferguson 719 OPS 1.25 WHIP career as a reliever.
Floro obvious ROOGY.
Kolarek obvious LOOGY.
Thank God we’re not talking about Chargois anymore.
Eric, last year the Dodgers lead MLB in ERA at 3.37. The Rays were second at 3.65 for reference. We lost Ryu and Hill’s 241.1 innings combined at a 2.35 ERA and added Treinen who can be very good. Probably just as much of a chance of Hill or Ryu being significantly worse. But, anyway you cut it, you have to replace those 241.1 innings of very good ERA. The thing is, those 241.1 innings is only 16% of the total so even a large jump in ERA won’t blow the overall number out of the water. For instance, add the difference between that sterling 2.35 over 241.1 innings and the same number of innings at 4.00 ERA and the team ERA is good for 3.64. That’s still the best ERA in baseball.
Building the bullpen looks a lot like AC’s demonstration.
The locks
Jansen
Baez
Kelly
Treinen
The lefties – Pick 2
Kolarek
Ferguson
Alexander
Gonzalez – Longshot
Stripling
Sadler
So it looks like you’re only gonna have 3 guys on your complain list on the club at once. Then, they aren’t as bad as those stats say they are, and those stats aren’t really that bad.
Sadler was good last year. There’s really no getting around that. He only had 20 innings pitched in the bigs prior to last year’s 46 innings combined of 2.14 ERA.
Ferguson was pretty bad last year, but the year before he was pretty damn good with a 1.12 WHIP, 3.48 ERA and 59 Ks in 49 innings. I have no problem with having a place for him and he has way more upside than a lot of 35 year olds that keep getting mentioned.
Alexander had a rough and injured year last year and he still has a lifetime 3.20 ERA. Very solid to say the least.
Anyone can build a better staff with unlimited resources and mind control over all the other GMs. But, this is a pretty damn good staff and you have to have room for some of these very talented youngsters to develop.
I would also like to point out the obvious to you. The Jays just signed Ryu to 4 years and 80 Million because they want to compete. They are NOT shopping Giles and he won’t be going anywhere until the trade deadline at the earliest. Old Man Harris is 35 and had a 3.49 ERA the year before last. So, there’s no guarantee that that soft tossing side-armer is going to be much better than guys we already have. I’d much rather stick to the twenty-somethings that are on their way up.
Mark….great song and lyrics. Thank you for sharing it. My lineup is:
Joc – LF
Turner-3B
Bellinger-CF
Muncy-1B
Seager-SS
Verdugo-RF
Smith-C
Lux-2B
Buehler-P
Tried to split up all the LHB’s
What would it look like if I let Mark’s contention that everything is going to be okay in the bullpen go unchallenged? Everybody has their own version as to what the starting rotation should be. I seem to lean more towards Buehler/Kershaw/Maeda/Urias/Stripling to start the year. IMO, the team may be best served with Dustin May going back down to AAA to manage his innings and pitch count so that when the inevitable happens and either (or both) of Maeda and Strip begin to fade in the 2nd half, May is ready to come back and join the rotation that he will not leave again. Think Alex Verdugo when he was seemingly ready to begin his ML career but was sent back down one last time (2018) to begin the season. Of course both Maeda and Strip are potential trade candidates making Dustin May a cinch to start in the rotation if either are traded. However, AF has always leaned to more depth in the starting pitching, not less.
With Strip in my rotation, that would leave the bullpen givens as:
KJ – Closer
Treinen
Baez
Kelly
They will need two LHRP, and have four potential to choose from:
Scott Alexander (2 options)
Caleb Ferguson (2 options)
Adam Kolarek (2 options)
Victor Gonzalez (3 options)
All have options and all will pitch at the ML level during the season. I am going with the top two (Alexander and Ferguson) to start the year in the pen.
That would leave two spots left, and while I think AF looks at him more as a starter, I think Tony Gonsolin could slide right in to see how relief fits him. It is just as likely that Tony will go back to AAA to join May in the rotation. But for this exercise, I am going with Gonsolin on the ML roster from Day 1 in the pen.
That will leave one spot. The choices are currently Dylan Floro (1 option), Casey Sadler (0 options), Dennis Santana (1 option), Josh Sborz (2 options), Mitchell White (3 options). However I would prefer that AF go out and get one PROVEN top reliever for late innings, and he does have two to choose from if he so wishes; Ken Giles (in a trade) or Will Harris (FA). I really do not care which one, but I would feel far more comfortable with Baez and Kelly never seeing the 8th inning. I would much prefer Treinen and Giles/Harris as the true setup pitchers. For those that want both, it is just not going to happen. AF is going to give Treinen a legit chance to showcase his near 2018 stuff. If Treinen cannot cut it, AF is not going to sweat it. He will have plenty to choose from.
How about we eliminate the 2 lefties in the bullpen rule and go with the best options. Remember there are righties that dominate lefty batters career wise. Giles 576 career OPS vs lefties, Harris 560 career OPS vs lefties. Why go with lefty on lefty for the hell of it.
Look at Urias career stats as a reliever and as a starter, Urias is not just better as a reliever, he is WAY BETTER as a reliever.
Do you really want Jansen and his declining stuff with the game on the line? Been there done that, not me.
I’m thinking a starting rotation of Buehler/Kershaw/Maeda/May/Gonsolin.
I’m thinking a bullpen of:
Treinen/Giles 8th, 9th inning either way.
Harris/Baez/Urias 6th, 7th inning.
Jansen/Kelly low leverage.
Stripling in blowouts to eat innings and occasional starter.
Baez also has a pretty good career OPS vs lefties at 605.
Seems to me that the FO and/or Doc have always treated Strip as an afterthought for the rotation. Like yesterday’s leftovers. Something you throw together for dinner when you don’t quite know what to put on the table. This is why I have long said that the best thing for his career would be a trade to a team who would commit to using him as a starter full time. I very much doubt that AF is sitting at his desk as the old year winds down with the words “Ross Stripling” penciled in as starter #5. And that’s also why (assuming he has a decent ST) I would be very surprised to see May in OKC at the beginning of the year. I think he’ll be given every opportunity to start the season in the rotation. I would also not be at all surprised to see a veteran starter to be added to the mix shortly, whether by trade or signing, whether a major asset (like a Clevinger) or a total role of the dice who might never make the roster out of camp (like a Taijuan Walker). Someone who, when camp opens, would not make it imperative that one of May or Stripling automatically be in the rotation to start the year.
I definitely would have Ferguson in my bullpen. Not sure about Alexander but will see how he holds up. Otherwise, I agree with you on your bullpen choices. Thanks.
Gonsolin was primarily a reliever before last season. If they want to build up his arm and pitch count then he shouldn’t start the season in the bullpen. Any way you put it, the Dodgers have to straddle the line between building up the arms of Urias, May, Gonsolin (and Stripling too, for that matter), but control their innings too to avoid the dread Verducci effect.
As I see it, Urias and Stripling will start the season in the rotation. May and/or Gonsolin will get starts as they rest Urias to control his innings or once Stripling and Maeda start their 2nd half swoons, but I expect that the Dodgers will seek reinforcements at the deadline as they have in most past seasons.
I don’t think that they have done enough to buttress the ‘pen, but the bullpen issue pales in comparison to potential problems in the rotation. Ryu was their best pitcher last year by the end of the season. At the beginning of the season , Ryu and Hill were #3 and 4 – and they’re gone. We are putting a kid who’s never thrown more than 80 innings and has never been a full time starter in one of those spots (Urias) and Stripling, who has been a full-time starter but never pitched more than 122 innings in the majors and never more than 127 innings in his career (2013 in the minors). There will be a lot of mixing and matching – even Maeda hasn’t thrown more than 153 innings except in his rookie season.
As to the pen, Treinen is a lottery ticket. And as good as he was in 2018, he was that bad last year. You realize that he walked 37 in 58 innings last year? Just what you want from a late inning reliever. Joe Kelly has never had good control – either has Treinen. He has walked 3.6/9 IP for his career. What you don’t need late inning relievers to do is allow baserunners. Last year he walked 5.7/ 9 IP. So he might be good – but maybe not. In any case, neither Treinen nor Kelly are strike throwers.
Jansen’s only questionable season wasn’t last year – 2018 wasn’t good by his standards either. His K/9 went from 14.3 in 2017 to 10.3 in 2018 to 11.4 in 2019. His HR went from .66 in 2017 to 1.63 in 2018 to 1.29 last year. His BS and ERA were really worse last year but his regression actually began in 2018. I think that Jansen can bounce back from last year but like Kershaw, I think the days of Jansen being the best are over. I would be happy with good performance from him – somewhere between his peak performance in 2016/17 and what he’s done in the past 2 seasons.
With all of the talk about the Dodgers needing to improve the offense, I believe that starting pitching is going to be the Dodgers’ biggest potential problem next year. It could be good, but it’s hardly the sure thing that it has been in the past. And in the past, they have had depth to deal with injuries. Now, not so much.
You’re correct in pointing out that KJ’s regression has been for two years, not one. Not to say he couldn’t turn it around in 2020 but we can’t count on that happening.
Someone on twitter pointed out that Rich Hill had a 3.00 ERA since the start of 2016 which was the 6th best in the majors for pitchers who threw a minimum of 400 innings. So we’ve now lost him and the guy who finished second in the Cy Young. And we’re counting on Urias and May to pick up the slack. They could both make it to the HOF but they could also take another year or two to reach average starter numbers. CK is another year older. This rotation, as it stands today, could be spectacular but could just as easily be very spotty.
I think Buehler, Kershaw, Maeda, and Stripling have passed the MLB mental stress test and we pretty well know what we will get over the course of the season. Urias, May, Gonsolin have proven they are good but haven’t been through a MLB season and we are not sure what that will look like.
They have all pitched in front of 55,000 people and the playoffs. I have a very good feeling about Fergusson. Kelly and Treinen will keep opposing hitters loose.