Just a few tidbits with which some certainly will be familiar.
Gavin Lux:
Folks Gavin Lux isn’t going anywhere. He has made major strides in the past two years and there is no reason to think he won’t continue to do so. Work ethic and character do count for something. At what position will he play at the MLB level? According to the Dodgers he provides more than one option.
For now, Roberts would only say Lux is a possibility at multiple positions.
“Gavin is in the mix,” he said. “He really came out of the gates and performed well. He struggled a little bit like a lot of young players do. … Right now, he’s in the mix, but we have a long way to go before we break camp. To look back on a year ago and see how much he’s matured, I’m very, very proud of him. He’s going to play the game at this level for a long time. But we’ve got a long time before we break camp.”
Mitchell White
Some have speculated that soon to be 25-year-old right-hander Mitchell White will eventually move to the pen. He did so in the AFL after a so-so 2019 season. With a blister issue thrown in, plus starting pitchers ahead of him, relief seems like a very viable option.
Late in the season, word came that the Dodgers were assigning the 2016 second-round pick to the AFL, giving him another opportunity to bounce back.
“The idea for me was definitely to get a little experience in the bullpen because, potentially, that could be my role down the road and then also, because of those blisters, I missed a lot of innings,” he said. “I didn’t even realize how many innings, so I needed to build that count up, and those are the two main things that we’re working on here.””Pitching out of the ‘pen is a great [opportunity],” he said. “I don’t know if that’s ever going to come up in the future, but it definitely could, and getting a little experience here will not hurt.”
2020 Draft
The 2020 First-Year Player Draft is about to take on a much more collegiate feel.
The Draft will officially move to Omaha — the site of the College World Series — in 2020, commissioner Rob Manfred announced in a Winter Meetings press conference. The Draft itself will begin on Wednesday, June 10, in order to avoid any overlap with the NCAA Division I baseball tournament.
Manfred added that all College World Series teams will be invited to attend, in the hope that more draft-eligible players will be able to celebrate their selections in the room where they happen.
“The result we’re looking for here is that many of the players being drafted are going to have a much better draft day experience,” said the commissioner. “We’re going to have a much better draft day experience.”
The First-Year Player Draft had been held at MLB Network Studios in Secaucus, New Jersey since 2009.
Rule 5
There were no big changes in the Rule 5 routine this year although the collective bargaining agreement that set the rules for the draft is a few years old. There were a couple of tweaks. It eliminated the old Double-A portion of the Draft and upped the compensation for a Major League pick from $50,000 to $100,000.
Carlos Sepulveda
Speaking of Rule 5, second baseman Carlos Sepulveda was selected by the Dodgers in the Triple-A portion of the draft. He had been signed as an international free agent by the Cubs in December of 2014. The 23-year-old native of Monclova, Coahuila, Mexico has played five years in the Cubs system starting with the Arizona league Cubs in 2015 and playing with the A+ Myrtle Beach Pelicans of the Carolina League in 2019. His best year was with the South Bend Cubs in 2016 in the Midwest League where he posted a triple slash of .310/.361/.373.
After a good first year in the AZL and a very good year in the Midwest League, things went down hill for the 5’10”/170-lb. left handed-hitting second baseman. He does throw right-handed. After 28 games with the Myrtle Beach Pelicans in 2017 he suffered a shoulder injury which sidelined him for the balance of the 2017 season and resulting surgery claimed all of 2018.
Sepulveda returned to Myrtle Beach for the 2019 season working his way back from the surgery. Although he had a hot spell at the plate in July he finished the season with a slash line of .243/.342/.285. His glove work didn’t suffer as he committed only two errors over 802.1 innings and 373 total chances.
He was backed up behind middle infielders in the Cubs system but perhaps was seen by the Dodgers as infield depth who had cut down on his strikeout rate and has a possibility of showing off his stuff now that he is healthy. He is currently playing winter ball in the Mexican League and may well start the 2020 season with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes looking to make it the AA before season’s end.
Winter League Ball
The following Dodger minor league players are playing winter ball.
Australia – Jared Walker, Eric Peterson,Yujo Kilagata
Dominican – Christian Santana, Luis Vasquez, Shea Spitzbarth
Mexico – Carlos Spulveda, Antonio Hernandez, Ricardo Hernandez
Puerto Rico – Darien Nunez
Professional Baseball Agreement
A while back MLB announced changes it would like to make with minor league baseball in the new PBA agreement .At the recent winter meetings representatives from MLB and MiLB met to discuss the proposed changes and what they might look like across the total minor league spectrum. Following the meetings MiLB issued a statement of its own to correct, as they saw it, inaccuracies in the MLB working paper.
This is a link to the statement;
MLB has responded to the MiLB statement with a statement of its own.
Major League Baseball responded with its own public statement last night. But rather than publicly rebut Minor League Baseball’s claims, or to simply say, consistent with Manfred’s statement on Wednesday, that it preferred to negotiate in private, it threatened to simply drop any agreement with Minor League Baseball and, presumably start its own minor league system bypassing MiLB entirely.
“If the National Association [of Minor League Clubs] has an interest in an agreement with Major League Baseball, it must address the very significant issues with the current system at the bargaining table. Otherwise, MLB clubs will be free to affiliate with any minor league team or potential team in the United States, including independent league teams and cities which are not permitted to compete for an affiliate under the current agreement.”
As for Minor League Baseball going public itself, one Minor League Baseball owner’s comments to the Los Angeles Times seems to sum up the thinking pretty well:
“Rob is attempting to decimate the industry, destroy baseball in communities and eliminate thousands of jobs, and he’s upset that the owners of the teams have gone public with that information in an effort to save their teams. That’s rich.
I agree 1000%! You do not trade Lux in any of the deals that have been bandied about over the last few weeks.
If Cleveland won’t trade Lindor unless Lux is part of the package then move on to Betts.
It might take Verdugo and either Ruiz or Gonsolin to get Betts. Verdugo would have to pass a physical. Maybe Pollock at $12,000,000 AAV would interest Boston.
Betts salary for 2020 will be $27,700,000 and if Rendon got $35,000,000 AAV then Betts will probably get $37,000,000 or more AAV as a free agent in 2021.
I’m with SCB. I would trade him in the right deal, but Lindor isn’t the right deal. Alex Bregman anyone?
It seems like there’s a lot of people and players out there that are highly critical of Rob Manfred. This feud with MiLB is one example. Trevor Bauer had some choice words for Manfred on the subject. Plus all the rule changes.
I honestly don’t know WTF the Dodgers are doing this off-season. On one side, I can see that they never had a chance with Cole or Stras, but on the other side, you can’t make excuses when you whiff on everyone. At some point you need to look inward, identify the problem, and fix it.
One one side, we are a complete team. On the other side, we are very left handed and very young in the rotation.
I’m not mad about the Lindor trade falling apart as I don’t want to move Seager off SS. If he’s 100% healthy, he’s a better pure hitter than Lindor. I never thought Mad Bum was a good idea, but I was warming to the prospect of signing him as an innings eater, but I don’t think he’s a difference maker.
Right about now, I’m offering Ryu 4/80 and Donaldson 4/100 and I’m trading some spare parts between physicals and announcements, or cutting some bloat from the 40 to make room for them (Chargois or Floro/ T White or McKinstry).
A lot of people talk about bringing Hill back. I love Hill, he served us well, but he’s way past his expiration date. His elbow is hanging on by a thread and his knee is another concern.
I’m still mad about how they used Urias last year. If they would have obtained some help for the pen at the end of last year, they could have built up his innings for a starter’s workload this year.
Latest rumors suggest Betances signs with either the Phillies or Mets.
Maybe Friedman was not in on any of it. Maybe the Dodgers plan is to grow their own. As DodgerRick pointed out, no team is as successful… and they are spending big-time on player development and human engineering. Human engineering is a thing. Check this out:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XC9gnQ6TpM
Sorry about the low energy vide. I had pneumonia when it was shot.
Anyway, back to my point: Maybe AF never was in on Cole or Rendon. Maybe he just drives up the prices so that other teams can become hamstrung with boat anchor contracts. While other teams are breaking the bank for free agents, the Dodgers are building a Player Development Machine – they have more top prospects than 90% of MLB teams and as Rick pointed out, they are more successful at developing them.
Maybe, just maybe, AF has NO INTENTION of doing those boat anchor deals. He’s not going to tell you that. He has to “sell” everyone that he is “in” on these free agents… but he is really not. They are spending huge amounts of money of player development -stadium and on-field renovations, Campos Las Palmos, fabulous facilities in the minors and now buying an analytics company.
Maybe this is the new paradigm: The new Dodger Way. He’s only been doing it for 5 years, but in those 5 years he has won more games than anyone and if you add in the behind the scenes costs, the Dodgers are spending like drunken sailors, so they don’t have to pay stupid money to Cole and Rendon.
In the next two to three years, the Dodgers have 20+ players who could see the Show. Some will be good, some not so much and others will be great. You can’t always predict who’s who, but the more you have, the better your chances. Who thought Lux would be great 3 years ago? Maybe the Dodgers see something in Kendall they think can change everything…
Again, AF is going to say they will sign Free Agents, but this may be the new deal. He has rebuilt the team and farm systems while winning… and winning more than anyone in baseball and had the ASTROS not cheated, the Dodgers would be the team of the Decade!
I will write more about this later.
another factor that may be influencing Dodgers decisions on large, and lengthy contracts, Guggenheim Baseball Partners will sell the Dodgers sooner than later (IMO). Making money from baseball operations each year pales in comparison to the money to be made by selling the team for a substantial profit. Financially, long term, costly contracts can reduce the value of a team when it is being marketed for sale.
As I was thinking about my frustration in having no big moves happen so far, I was also thinking about something Mark just referred to and that is AF driving prices up on the deals that have been made by other teams. There are very few if any high end starters hitting free agency in the next 2-3 years but with the Yankees, Nationals, Angels and Phillies spending lots over the past couple of years, our path will be easier if we decide to make an all out run at Mookie next winter. Maybe that was the plan all along. Joc’s contract will be finished and Pollock’s will be one year farther down the line and easier to move. Those two alone should pay for half of Mookie’s annual salary. After the 2021 season there is very little committed in salary and we could certainly afford him. Of course, he might not like the Hollywood vibe……………………………………………………………I hear Mark Walter is exploring the idea of moving the franchise to Lincoln, Nebraska.
Driving the price up reduces how much more the signing team can do going forward but increases the cost of all players.
You know Mark I agree with all you are saying about player development, couldn’t the FO do something with manager development. We could have a least two championship within the last five years.
lol – I constantly think the same about Dr. Magoo. But, in all fairness, he didn’t blow it as much during the regular season as it went on. Unfortunately, he chocked in the post-season again. At a minimum, Kolarek should have faced Soto, then double switched for Maeda so he could have gone more than 1 inning.
Muncy, Taylor or Hernandez, and Maeda for Lindor and Clevenger. This clears space on the LA roster and saves Cleveland money. What about Seager playing 1B, Lux @ 2B, Turner @ 3B with Lindor @ SS? Either Taylor or Hernandez plays SS for Indians, the other is utility for LA.
Some very interesting points on your article DC. I have always been fascinated by a left-hand hitter throwing right handed. Kind of like eating with your left and writing with your right. Wonder why that is and which side is their natural side.
If MLB drops it’s agreement with Minor League Baseball, how would that effect the Dodgers long term?
Can you do some research on those Australian players? Always wondered how much of an interest baseball is to a country where it does not seem to be its national game.
Thank you again DC. Your writing always make me think and learn.
Regarding swinging left and throwing right. It think it’s common because hitting using both arms and a lot of right handed people are also right eye dominant. My son is right handed and he hit left handed. When he was just a tot, we bought him a tee, plastic bat and ball. He naturally threw right handed and we lined him up at the plate on the right side, but he always had his hands backwards, right hand on the bottom. We tried to change that, but he always reverted to right hand on the bottom. The easy fix was to turn him around and wala, problem solved. From that day forward, he always batted lefty and the hands were correct. He was always the best hitter on every team he was on, so it wasn’t unnatural at all. The only thing he ever did left handed was hit. He threw right, kicked right, pushed right on the skateboard, write right, eat right.
Thank you for the explanation 59. I also have a left-handed son, but he does everything left-handed. It helped in his hockey years as a LH shooter. I guess LH hitter throwing right in the majors is more common than I thought.
Considering our entire team bats left handed, I would agree that it is becoming increasingly common. Especially since it is a big advantage since most pitchers are right handed and you’re a few steps closer to 1B when you get out of the box. On top of that, shortstops and third basemen are generally more athletic than their 1st and 2nd base brethren.
As a righty everything kid playing whiffle ball I was always better hitting left handed but could never carry that over to a heavier bat.
I had the exact same experience with my son. Started in Tball. He just naturally hit left from the age of 4/5. He’s almost 12 and still throws RH and bats LH.
The Duke batted left and threw right as well.
When very young, the golfer, Phil Michelson, learned how to swing a club by looking in a mirror. Although he did everything else right-handed, he saw himself as a left-handed golfer.
He still does everything else, as far as I know, right-handed.
DodgerBlueMom – Australia’s national baseball team competes in international baseball competitions and is scouted. Former major leaguers include Peter Moylan, Ryan Rowland Smith and Grant Balfour. They also play high quality Men’s Fastpitch Softball. That game is a hotbed in New Zealand producing international youth and adult players especially pitchers. It was common practice for Kiwi pitchers to be stars in New Zealand and play in their winter in the USA, during our summer. Most every successful USA team that played in national tournaments had one or more (amateur) Kiwi or Ausie pitchers.
That is good to hear Phil. Interesting stuff about the Kiwis. I will be watching for them in our future plans. Thanks for the info.
Will post the stats later. Both Jared Walker and Yujo Kilagata have had a good start. Not so much with the guys in the other leagues unless things have changed in the past few days. Sometimes they do with just a few games played.
I don’t think MLB will drop its agreement with MiLB. There just seems to be too much in place to start all over again. Interest in minor league ball has been growing, albeit slowly. Disassociating with MiLB already in place just seems to be a non-starter. I think MiLB will call Manfred’s bluff. I don’t think he has all the trump cards even though he has money. There are other variables that he does not control.
A total of 41,504,077 fans passed through the gates at Minor League Baseball games in 2019, marking the 15th consecutive season that Minor League Baseball’s 176 teams in 15 leagues drew more than 40 million fans.
The increase of 1,053,740 fans over the 2018 attendance total was a 2.6 percent increase and marked Minor League Baseball’s largest year-over-year increase since the 2006-2007 seasons and marks the ninth-largest single season total in Minor League Baseball history. Average attendance across Minor League Baseball (4,044) was up 84 fans per game (2.1 percent) over 2018.
If MLB dropped MiLB it certainly would set off a new sets of dynamics all the way to smaller locals working to keep a MiLB franchise in their towns to MLB teams scrambling for prime locations. Someone with more wisdom than I have would have to explain how new MiLB leagues would form with MLB teams trying to gain some type of advantage in the new arrangement. If it happened it seems to me that MLB teams would get into bidding wars to secure prime minor league franchises across the country. If it happened I would not be surprised to see MLB teams play higher levels in Latin America locations.
How would it affect the Dodgers? As always I believe they would be on the cutting edge of any such transition.
No Mark, offering a 300M deal to Cole is NOT driving up the price. He was genuinely interested. Maybe, it is just the obvious thing, you know, the thing he actually said. He’s gonna be aggressive, but not stupid. He sticks to his own valuations of players. He might go over a little, but not a lot. As far as Rendon goes, If you meet with a guy and he doesn’t show you that he’s all in, you don’t give him $250M. It’s very simple.
As far as investing in player development goes, the Dodgers are obviously not cheap like some bozos on this site like to say, over and over and over again. They spend money in every way to make the team better. They spend on food and nutrition, they spend on stadium improvements, they spend on additional teams (Two in AZ and Two in DR). They spend on tools like VR, they spend on front office staff. They spend a ton basically on anywhere there aren’t restrictions on spending. Hell, look at all the money they blew signing all those Cuban players before MLB restricted international signing. If you think the team is cheap, you’re not paying attention.
They’re very smart about a lot of things, but they need to do better at getting the top guys to want to come here. They need to do better at balancing the lineup. And they need to do better at making in game decisions when it counts the most.
They better get a RH bat and someone to eat innings. If they stand pat this offseason and at the deadline, next offseason is going to be even more dissenting. Donaldson, Castellanos and Ozuna are still available in free agency. All of them are middle of the order RH bats. Hell, I might even consider a Puig reunion at this point. Betts, Bryant, Marte. Go get someone that swings from the right side! Then, go trade for another reliever at a minimum.
Here are some bettable early lines on the baseball season. To win the World Series, the Yankees are favored at 3.25 to 1. Astros surprisingly second at 5-1. Dodgers 6-1. Braves 8-1. Others behind that. For the National League pennant, Dodgers favored at 2.8 to 1, Braves second at 5-1.
Odds do not necessarily presage results, but they are interesting. Dodgers still favored in NL, but Yankees clear favorites to win the title. If that played out, and we won the pennant and lost the World Series to the Yankees, would that be considered a successful season? Of course, we do not know the results of the entire offseason. If the Dodgers do nothing much at all, is that good, are we glad that they chose not to try to improve the team, while many other clubs did?
My thought is that the Yankees are a clear favorite now to win it all, and may even add additional players. The Dodgers are still considered by the oddsmakers as the natural favorite in the NL, as they have been for the last few years. They were odds-on favorites to win the pennant almost all of last season, the odds at one point being around 5-8, which is a very strong favorite. But we did not, of course, and all that money was lost, as was all the money bet on the Dodgers to win the world title in the last few years. Before last season, we were second favorite behind the Astros to win it all. Now we are third favorite at this point. Still one of the favorites, but not the favorite. I don’t think we will get to the World Series, but we certainly have a reasonable chance. I will be very surprised if we actually get there and win it.
As to Lux, I will defer to some of the comments by Jayne yesterday, and thus I think we should not trade him. It would mean that we probably cannot make any significant trade in the offseason, but at this point, we might as well just go with mostly the same team we had last year, minus defections, and hope that a bunch of players have their best seasons ever, or at least in a while.
The thing about “the oddsmakers” are that they are you and me and what the hell do we know? Vegas odds are set and changed by the number of bets coming in on each side. Oddsmakers change the odds so that they have an equal payout on each side and make money on the vig…
https://accuscore.com/sports-betting-system/general-expert-analysis/how-do-oddsmakers-make-the-odds
So, it’s pretty stupid that the Astros, who lost a ton of guys from their team so far, still have favorable odds. The Yankees lost a bunch of guys, brought back Gardener and signed Cole. Now they’re over the CBT by $50 Million. It’s hard to imagine they’re gonna be a lot better than last year, but they did address their biggest hole by creating a few smaller ones.
The Astros lost Cole, Miley and half of their bullpen and they sit $23 Million over the CBT. There is NO WAY IN HELL they are a better team next year.
We lost Ryu, Freese, Martin and Garcia so far and added Treinen. I would have to say we’re a little worse, but we still have $$ to spend. So, there is no reason to believe the odds or that they won’t change before the start of the season.
The “oddsmakers” sure didn’t pick the Nats last year, so…
All very valid points. I was very surprised to see the Astros so low in the odds. They are just about equal with the Yankees in the odds to win the AL, which seems strange. As to the idea that they want to get equal money on both sides, it is somewhat different with regard to futures odds. They take a larger vigorish, which makes them worse bets for the bettors. The earlier odds on futures are most important, as those are the ones which most bettors take a stab at. They did open the Yankees at higher odds than I had thought, so maybe they are not as impressed with their team as I am. Dodgers at 6-1 is higher than I have seen n the last few years.
Dodger Mom – You asked…
“Always wondered how much of an interest baseball is to a country where it does not seem to be its national game.”
Mom have you ever seen a CRICKET GAME??? It’s like watching paint dry…
I have seen a Cricket game. I agree peterj not as exciting as baseball, but it has its good points. We could use the bigger bats. You are too funny.
So what is Rob Manfred attempting to do with minor league baseball? I don’t get it and I’m still trying to digest the all of the information coming out of the winter meeting in the link that DodgerChatter posted above . My local community just dumped another 3 million in facility improvements to the A- ballpark. For all of the hard work and financial risk assumed by minor league owners (along with the possible elimination of 42 franchises) they now may be asked to provide additional financial subsidy to offset pay raises for minor league players? What, MLB can’t afford to pay minor league players a decent wage? The cost of 25 AAA player salaries for a summer is the cost of 8 Manny Merchado at bats.
pj – who knows what the motives are. I am not one for conspiracy theories but it seems that MLB has hidden motives.
I don’t think the motives are to better cater to minor league towns and fans or to provide hope to more MiLB players. The plan includes fewer draft rounds (20-25) and therefore fewer minor league venues (-42) eliminating short season leagues such as the Pioneer League. It would mean more independent leagues where MLB pays nothing. It includes a 50% increase in minor league pay, which should still be a source of embarrassment for MLB, and one has to wonder if downsizing using facility, travel,etc. as pretexts is simply a way to save money to pay for the increase in pay for minor leaguers. The Blue Jays raised minor league pay by 50% unilaterally this year.
I think MLB is looking for an excuse to start their own MiLB and maximize profits. It fits with past efforts toward monopolizing all aspects of the American game.
So trade talks with the Indians have stalled. I hope that means trade talks with the Indians has ENDED. I have a different take than most here do about what the Dodgers should do this off season. I think the need for a right handed power hitter is over blown.
Seager did not hit left handers at all last season, but before his injuries he did, so there could be upside there. The exact same thing for Lux and Smith potential upside there. DJ Peters lurking in the minors could bring a right handed power bat to the Dodgers this season.
I don’t know which list of our prospects is best to use, but using MLB dot com’s top 30 Dodgers prospects list. I would be willing to trade from the top 10 listed, Gray, Downs, White, Santana, and then from the rest of the top 30 anyone except DJ Peters for a good established controllable starting pitcher. Because Ryu is probably the best starting pitcher on the free agent market available, but it would take a 4 year contract at least to get Ryu. But I’m fine with who we already have for starting pitching.
Everyone knows this, I want an additional 2 proven relievers.
There is no such thing as a unicorn or a “proven reliever.”
Then what would you have called Kenley Jansen during his prime?
Santa?
Dodgers, BoSox discussing Betts:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/2675699001
Here we go again. An unneeded trade.
I would venture that 90% of the commenters on this site have a better insight than Bob Nightengale.
That percentage is probably a little low.
So now you have discussions between the Dodgers and Red Sox, which, apparently some execs think make sense. Yah, I could see that. The Dodgers get Mookie Betts and David Price and his remaining three years at $32 million per year. Call it Punto Trade 2.
Maybe the Indians talks get revisited and certainly the Dodgers will be tied to Kris Bryant once the grievance gets resolved. At this point, I don’t even care. Whatever.
Sign Ryu, maybe find another relief pitcher in the trade market, then move forward with a pretty good team. Let Gavin Lux play second. Justin Turner is fine at third, Max Muncy can handle first and Cory Seager at short. For anyone who has forgot, Seager is an All-Star shortstop. Pollock, Verdugo, Taylor and Bellinger make for a pretty good outfield. Just because a player has a bad post season doesn’t mean they won’t have a big playoff in ‘20.
Starting pitching looks to be a strength with a lot of good young pitchers at the back end of the rotation, including Julio Urias, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin and another, Josiah Gray, sitting in AAA.
In no trade would I be willing to give up Lux or May, not even for Lindor.
So sit back and enjoy the Hollywood experience.
I would be all for a Price and Betts deal that doesn’t include Lux, May or Gonsolin. Take Price’s money and give up less prospects. Price is still good when he pitches and we don’t need him for a ton of innings. Just enough to take the load off Urias, May and Gonso.
I do not believe 10% of anything in that article.
I believe the Dodgers have talked to the Indians and Red Sox. Beyond that, it’s just the rantings of a guy whose bosses need to sell papers!
Here’s an interesting link – the percentage of revenues spent on MLB payroll by team:
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/a3e759/the_percent_of_revenue_each_team_spent_on_opening/
The average team has revenue of $315 MM, spends $136 MM (43.2% of revenue spent on MLB payroll).
The Dodgers? $522 MM in revenue (2nd to Yankees $619 MM), $187 MM in payroll (2018), 35.9% of revenue spent on payroll (10th lowest).
While you can argue that the Dodgers have room to spend on their MLB payroll, what they are spending on non-payroll expenses related to player development and performance is not readily available. We do know that the Dodgers and Yankees are reported to have more “analysts” on their payrolls than any other team. There is anecdotal information that the Dodgers are on the cutting edge of nutrition, scouting, teaching etc. I have no idea what all of this costs. Does anyone else?
No, and it’s in the Dodgers best interest to never let that information get out.
IN July of 2010, the Cardinals, Padres, and Indians. The Padres gave up Jake Westbrook and another minor league pitcher to essentially get Ryan Ludwig.
The minor league player the Padres gave up in that trade along with Westbrook had a 4.56 ERA the previous year. In 2008 his ERA was 4.90, so he seemed like a “throw in.” He struggled for 4 years and then was in the Top 10 for Cy Young in the AL 5 straight years… winning it twice.
I’ll be the Padres would love to have Corey Kluber back.
The point is: Hoard those prospects.
Some of you are eager to trade Downs and Gray, whom I think have very high ceilings.
I would be fine with this rotation and I have attached my projected IP:
1. Buehler – 200 IP
2. Kershaw – 200 IP
3. Urias – 170 IP
4. Maeda – 150 IP
5. May 170 IP
Stripling is the swingman who can pitch 100+ innings and he always gets overlooked with his career 3.51 ERA which is half a run better than Andrew Miller.
Gonsolin and Ferguson are capable of 70-80 IP in the pen.
Baez is good for 60+ IP
Kelly, Jansen, and Treinen = At least two will rebound.
Gray, Santana, de Gues, and/or White are on the cusp… and there are a bunch of guys in the pen who could show out.
This pitching staff can be VERY, VERY good.
The only disagreement I have with you about your starting pitching list is that stats say Urias is a MUCH better reliever. I prefer Gonsolin starting.
I have a lot of disagreement with you about the bullpen. Jansen is on a downward spiral even as you say Ray Charles can see that. Kelly rebound really? Kelly has never been consistently good. Treinan is a gamble but at least Friedman signed a reliever and I wish he would sign 2 more. I agree with you on Baez he would be in my bullpen. Ferguson and Stripling both have options (correct me if I am wrong) and both have been given chances and both have failed. Put them in AAA and on call if/when injuries occur. I don’t see anything in Santana or White. I like de Gues’s stats A LOT but only 2 seasons in the minors reaching A+, is there really a chance he makes the team. Maybe he does, but I wouldn’t alter my plans for him. As for Gray, he’s a valuable trade chip to me.
Finally, if the Dodgers go with your starting rotation or if they go with mine substituting Urias for Gonsolin from your list, the Dodgers better have a top notch bullpen and currently they don’t.
You would have dumped Kluber too!
Every starting pitcher is a much better reliever.
You said, Ferguson and Stripling both have options (correct me if I am wrong) and both have been given chances and both have failed.
Yes both Ferguson and Stripling have 2 options each. But, both Ferguson and Stripling have failed? I do not know how a 2018 All Star connotes a fail. I will stipulate that Strip did this as a starter, but his career relief stats do not equal fail to me. For a pitcher that has bounced between starter and reliever, sometimes in the same week, in 130 relief IP, has compiled a 3.12 ERA and 1.185 WHIP. OPS against .673. 127 strikeouts and 36 walks; 3.53 K/BB. From 2016, Strip has inherited 20 runners and 6 have scored (30%). Certainly not lockdown, but also not failure.
I am not going to blow smoke and say that Caleb Ferguson was good last year, but he most certainly was in 2018. In 2018, in 38.1 relief IP, Ferguson had a 2.35 ERA and 1.043 WHIP and .668 OPS against. He had 47 strikeouts, and 6 walks. Last year he came out of ST and pitched very well until 04/20. It was shortly thereafter that he was diagnosed with an oblique injury. Up until 04/20 Caleb pitched in 9 games, 10.1 IP with a 0.87 ERA, 12 K and 3 BB, and then something happened. He finally went on the DL on 04/28 but once he returned, he was forcing things and was never comfortable. They were messing with his pitch selection. Caleb Ferguson has always been a command/control pitcher. In 2018 his K/BB was 47/6. In 2019, it was 54/27. But to say that Caleb Ferguson at 23 has failed is extreme. His 2018 was outstanding, and his 2019 was not good. You do not quit on a young LHRP who is going into his 23 year old season.
Contrarily, one of your wants is Tyler Clippard. He had a decent enough season last year, but I guess we are ignoring his 2016-2018 seasons?
2016 – 3.57 ERA, 1.270 WHIP, 18 inherited runners and 7 scored.
2017 – 4.77 ERA 1.293 WHIP, 13 inherited runners and 11 scored.
2018 – 3.67 ERA 1.165 WHIP, 17 inherited runners and 6 scored.
Career – 772.1 IP, 2.96 ERA, 1.075 WHIP, 873 K and 300 BB for a 2.91 K/BB ratio.
Clippard will be 35, and Stripling will be 30. Clippard’s career numbers are certainly not overwhelming compared to Strip who has never been allowed to strictly be a reliever. AF and Doc do not do him any favors by telling him he needs to stretch out this winter as if he were going to start, knowing darn well he is not going to start for LA.
1 good year out of 4 is enough for you to claim that Clippard is not only better than Strip and Ferguson, but that Strip and Ferguson have failed, but not Clippard?
You said, Finally, if the Dodgers go with your starting rotation or if they go with mine substituting Urias for Gonsolin from your list, the Dodgers better have a top notch bullpen and currently they don’t.
No disagreement from me that the Dodgers need to improve their bullpen, but I do not see Tyler Clippard as a upgrade.
Stripling and Ferguson have options and I’d rather go with upgrades. Sorry I used the word failed. But I have higher standards for the bullpen than you do.
Tyler Clippard is my last choice of the relievers I’m looking at. There are better relievers I’m looking at. Him being a free agent is why I would consider him because I fear trades and I want change.
You have no idea what my standards are for a bullpen. For the last three plus years, nobody has been more upfront and outspoken about relief options than I have. But when you start throwing names like Tyler Clippard out there, and hold him out to be better than Strip or Ferguson,I am going to say BS.
Besides Tyler Clippard, you have brought up Will Harris,who apparently has drawn interest only from Minnesota, but if the price and/or years drops, the Dodgers could be interested. But if you like Clippard because he is a FA, why not include Steve Cishek, Dellin Betances, Pedro Strop, and Daniel Hudson who are all rated better relief options than Clippard.
Wanting a player and not getting that player is not a failure by AF. The White Sox were not trading Aaron Bummer last year, and are for more reluctant this year. I know a lot of people were upset that NYY signed Ottavino and Britton last year. Never mind that Ottavino said he only wanted to play for NYY and would be willing to take a discount, and that Britton who said he wanted to stay in NYY and the AL East where he was most comfortable. All of the Rockies high priced relievers have been busts. Very glad AF did not sign them. We will see how Oberg does now that he has a three year deal.
Pomeranz signed a 4 year deal with SD. There is no way I would have been in favor of matching that even though I thought that Pomeranz would have been a good choice. Gausman apparently wants to start, and the Giants structured his contract so he will profit the more he starts. The best reliever the Dodgers have may be Kenta Maeda, but he wants no part of relief. Many of the best late inning relievers have been failed starters.
So you want to give up on KJ even though he is already working out. More than a handful of proven relievers have had horrible years and bounced back to have incredible years. You are okay with Pedro Baez, even though he has failed more than his share of opportunities in critical post season games.
You are certainly not alone in wanting to improve the bullpen. I have been critical of the AF and his choices for the bullpen. Mark is always chiding me about my comments that AF does not value relief pitching. I think it is 100% of the fans who post here believe the Dodgers need to improve their bullpen. Even Mark. But I would never say that the Dodgers would be better with Tyler Clippard over Strip and Ferguson.
Always Compete
“Wanting a player and not getting that player is not a failure by AF.”
I didn’t say that.
“You have no idea what my standards are for a bullpen. For the last three plus years, nobody has been more upfront and outspoken about relief options than I have. But when you start throwing names like Tyler Clippard out there, and hold him out to be better than Strip or Ferguson,I am going to say BS.”
Again Clippard is my last resort. If you are satisfied with Stripling and Ferguson than so be it, I’m not.
“Besides Tyler Clippard, you have brought up Will Harris,who apparently has drawn interest only from Minnesota, but if the price and/or years drops, the Dodgers could be interested. But if you like Clippard because he is a FA, why not include Steve Cishek, Dellin Betances, Pedro Strop, and Daniel Hudson who are all rated better relief options than Clippard.”
Rated better by who? Not me, besides maybe Betances but he is a gamble.
You brought up a whole bunch of names I never brought up, so I don’t know where you are going with that.
“So you want to give up on KJ even though he is already working out. More than a handful of proven relievers have had horrible years and bounced back to have incredible years. You are okay with Pedro Baez, even though he has failed more than his share of opportunities in critical post season games.”
If the Dodgers get 2 better relievers as I have advocated then Jansen and Baez won’t touch post season high leverage situations.
I must have hit a nerve, because I do know you value Stripling and Ferguson a lot. But you went on a rant that has for the most part nothing to do about what I have said.
Again Clippard is my last choice among the relievers I am looking at. Please realize that and understand that. So far you haven’t.
To Eric, I guess you did hit a nerve. I do not do well with anyone telling what my standards for the bullpen are. You have not seen me rant. But when you start telling me what my standards are, I am going to come back. I have NEVER said that Strip and Ferguson are legit late inning high leverage relievers. You brought them up by saying they failed. Strip and Ferguson are long relief and/or middle relief, and every team needs them. You have stated that you want two late inning high leverage relievers and the ones you most prominently mention are Will Harris, Ken Giles, and Tyler Clippard. And that is your idea of a lock down late inning high leverage bullpen? Apparently, you like 35 year old relief pitchers. Did you happen to catch Games 6 and 7 of the World Series and see how Will Harris performed? The two most critical games and Harris did not come through. But he will for the Dodgers?
Tyler Clippard is not included in any of the top FA relievers available by any baseball publication, while those that I listed were included by at least one publication, and most by multiple. If you want one source, look at MLBTR’s top 50 FA. Tyler Clippard is not even listed as an honorable mention in that publication. You have every right to disagree with the baseball publications. You value Clippard more than do the publications rating FA. Great! Support him! But not by saying that Strip and Ferguson failed when they have not.
For the record, I would have no problem if the Dodgers signed Harris, but I do not believe for a minute that he is a lock down late inning high leverage reliever. He was outstanding last year, but the one thing he is consistent at is his inconsistency. For me it is a big NO on Clippard.
I am sorry to report that I am leaving for the Pacer-Laker game and am going to watch the Pacers kick LeBron’s rear-end back to Cleveland!
😉
Oh MT, and you were on such a roll.
Some great discussions.
I agree we DO need a RH bat. Badly. I am not terribly comfortable relying on Pollock, given his injury issues. For me the RH bat is a larger issue than starting pitching. I like the options we have with our young starters. Urias, May and Gray have solid stuff. We are the envy of every MLB organization with our SP depth on the 40 man and in the system. RH bat is another story.
Others brought up DJ Peters. I think he plays into the calculus with the organization more than most people realize. He’s not just a 9 foot tall Thor lookalike who can mash. He’s very athletic. He runs great routs and has a cannon. It’s shocking he can even play CF in the minors. He certainly won’t be on the MLB level, but he is a plus defender. And did I mention he was 9 feet tall? I have a feeling the Dodgers are being careful with chasing a RH bat as they want to see how things progress before the trade deadline. Will Pollock be healthy? Will DJ force his way onto the 25 man before the AS break? I do believe DJ is the Pollock backup plan for the second half. A platoon of Joc and DJ could produce some crazy HR totals. I mean, like 55+ between the two in a full season.
Hes also a very nice guy who was hugely popular among the management, staff and fans when he was with the Quakes. He is that kind of “awe shucks” kind of kid who won’t use profanity and always says “yes mam, no mam”. He also grew up a huge Shawn Green Fan about 20 miles from Dodgers Stadium. And lets not forget that DJ is the guy who hit TWO HRs off Madison Bumgarner, in the SAME INNING.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuJyi7HURkE
And yes, that was Will Smith on 2B.
The question with DJ is can they continue to work to improve his SO%, which has been at parity with his OB% most of his pro career. When you have the wingspan of a Learjet your swing tends to be long. I know they have been working with him to shorten his stroke, turn on inside pitches without reducing his raw power. However, DJ has always been very streaky. He reminds me of Yasmani Grandal in that respect. When the season is over you say, “those are some good numbers”. But the only thing you tend to remember was the three 1 for 40 slumps which were half strikeouts. If DJ impresses in ST and progresses in AAA I can easily see him getting platoon ABs with Joc by the AS break. If that doesn’t work out and Pollock isn’t tearing things up, I would expect AD to be heavy in the trade market before the deadline. That is if he doesn’t pull the trigger on something soon. I don’t see Lindor happening. Never really have. If AD makes a move it will likely be something from out in LF (pun intended) which nobody saw coming. But DJ likely plays more of a roll in the calculus than most pro MLB commentators believe.
Minor League: I hate what MLB is proposing. The Dodgers would lose the Ogden Raptors, which drew 146,000 fans last year. From a city with a population of 87K. For perspective, the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (Dodgers High A) drew 162,000 fans last year, and they are 40 miles from Downtown Los Angeles (several million people within a 40 mile radius). That would be a deep blow to Ogden Utah. No other Dodgers affiliate would be effected. But the CA league would lose another highly attended team (The Lancaster JetHawks). I’m trying to wrap my mind around why MLB is pushing to shut down these teams. I can’t help but conclude it has more to do with money and control than most of the reasons given. This is not how you capture young fans. Minor league games are full of kids (mine included) where $20 can get you parked, inside and sucking down a hot dog. This at a time when going to a MLB game is increasingly out of reach to many families. $20 won’t buy you the cheapest parking at Dodgers stadium. I simply don’t get it.
And btw, I am male. As many have already guessed, Jayne Cobb (the character) was a dude.
Hey JC, do you have a writing background? You not only have an excellent knowledge of baseball but your stuff is really a pleasure to read.
You flatter me. No, I really don’t have a writing background. Outside of scientific and some legal (expert witness stuff). Certainly never written about baseball. Outside of Facebook posts about my son. Lol
Moneyball has never won a title.
You don’t remember the Yankees/ George Steinbrenner reign?
Sorry Jayne, I did not know. No offense taken, I hope. I do greatly enjoy your posts and stories.
None taken. At all. It’s a girls name. Which is why he was my favorite charter in Firefly. Ironic.
My comment disappeared, must have hit the wrong button or something.
Don’t have time to hack it out gain so I will try to paraphrase.
DJ Peters was mentioned. I think he plays more into the calculus for the Dodgers RH hitting issue than any of the pro sports writers believe. A Joc/Dj platoon could potentially produce ridiculous home run numbers. Like, 55+ HRs in a full season kind of ridiculous. I never believed a Lindor trade would happen. It’s just not AFs style to give away the farm on a player who has two years left and will likely demand a giant contract.
I tend to think they will see how Pollack looks early in the season. Weigh that against how Dj looks in ST and early in the AAA season. They have been working on shortening Dj’s stroke. When your 13 feet tall and have the wingspan of a Learjet it’s normal to have a long swing. If they can get his SO% down below his OB%, he will produce.
He’s also a great guy. He was absolutely loved by the clubhouse and stadium staff in Rancho. He grew up a massive Shawn Green fan about 20 miles from Dodger Stadium. Lived with his parents when he was with the Quakes.
He was my son’s favorite player in 2017. Well, in the CA league he was everybody’s favorite player. His HRs disrupted air travel. He hit TWO off Mad Bum on a rehab. In the SAME inning. Probably saved a grandmother from a house fire at some point, idk. You heard stories.
I remember he was always the last player out of the locker room. I’m assuming because it took a 30 minute shower to wash his 50 cubic yards of hair. He always signed for every kid (and there were always many waiting for him, my son included). I remember my son was waiting for Dj after a game so he could sign a team helmet he was working on (ended up an epic helmet). Yadier Alvarez came out of the locker room, signed for my son and walked to the parking lot. A moment later I heard the distinctive high pitched revving of a supercar of some kind ($15m signing bonus). The security guard and I were both watching him drive off. The guard asked who we were waiting for. I told him it was Dj. He pointed out the 6-10 year old economy car that was Dj’s. Which was a stark contrast. Dj had just won the CA league MVP and was driving back to his parents house in the same car, I’m sure, he drove in high school. While Yadier, who hadn’t really had a very good season, was driving something that you’d expect to see a bikini model laying across in a music video. I figured he got home by swing a hammer. But no, economy car.
It’s really hard not to like a Thor doppelgänger who has an “awe shucks” demeanor, hits 500 ft bombs and is literally 15 feet tall and really nice to kids and puppies.
All that aside, he’s on ADs mind for the RH bat issue. Guaranteed.
Seriously, he’s 16 feet tall!
Btw. As many have guessed.;“Jayne Cobb” was a dude. So am I. And I obviously suck at paraphrasing.
Mr. Jayne,
You are a intelligent and eloquent addition to this blog. Glad you’re here!
Wow. My original comment reappeared. That was redundant. Probably should be my nickname.
BOY. You Laker Fans are really quiet!
I had four Laker fans sitting in front of me tonight who wanted to choke me to death. I made them leave… I can talk trash with the best!
I took my friend “Fast Eddie” Brown and his wife to the game. He is a huge Laker fan. He’s waiting for a rematch.
Boooooooo YAAAAAAHHHHH!
That 14 game road win streak had to come to an end sometime. But, if you think the Pacers are Championship bound, well, even Stevie Wonder can see that they have about a good of a chance as the Dodgers signing an impact free agent. Even the blind squirrel finds a nut now and then. I bet you had to change your underwear at least once in the 4th qtr. They probably left because you drank too much and embarrassed yourself acting like the Pacers are good. You only have five teams to jump to get to first place in that weak Eastern Conference. Congratulations, your season is complete, you beat the Lakers.
Now, don’t get too mad, you asked.
I would say “We’ll get you in the finals”, but we all know that that’s not gonna happen.
Dodgers will never sign an impact free agent or acquire one.
Hmm, well Manny Machado sure got paid like an impact player and we did acquire him.
Good to see teams and their fans getting up for the Lakers again.
Wow, trash talking with two Laker starters sitting out the game and Pacers can only manage to win by 3.
I wouldn’t be parading around too much about that but a win is a win. Hardly call it LeBron being kicked around though.
We haven’t had our best players and NBA All-Star Victor Olidipo all year, so there is that.
Besides, trash-talking is fun.