Many loyal Dodger fans believe the Dodgers ownership group is cheap and not interested in winning, and only interested in counting profits. Never mind that the Dodgers have spent more on player personnel contracts over the last five years than any other team. They have also spent lavishly on player development and re-focusing on their MiLB programs. I think we can all agree that the contract costs were not all well spent, but it was nevertheless spent. Now we need to ask ourselves (because LAD will not answer), are the Dodgers playing with a restricted budget (self-imposed or otherwise) or playing with monopoly money.
There were some very interesting reads from the various publications as to who the Dodgers may focus on in free agency. Up to the free agent lists, most publications had the Dodgers focusing almost solely on relief pitching. Of course those same publications (and bloggers) have been promoting that LAD should have been focusing on relief pitching for the last several years. So thus far not much has changed. I focused on the following free agent lists and predictions:
MLB Trade Rumors – Top 50
CBS – Top 50
The Athletic (Jim Bowden) – Top 35
Bleacher Report – Top 10
Sporting News – Top 10
I believe that both Bleacher Report and Sporting News are relevant even though they include only Top 10. Most believe the Dodgers will not look at any of the top 10 outside of Hyun-jin Ryu, and that is key as to how to review this year’s Hot Stove League. I am sure there will be countless others, but these are the ones I reviewed thus far. Most of those publications do not suggest that the Dodgers needed to re-focus on starting pitching elite or otherwise. Thus very few of the publications believe that that Dodgers will acquire the elite pitching of Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg. The Athletic did indicate that the Dodgers would be the fourth of five potential landing spots for Cole. MLB Trade Rumors (MLBTR) indicated that the Dodgers would be one of 20 teams to at least check in on both Cole and Strasburg, but will not sign either.
Again, most publications have also ruled the Dodgers out of the Zach Wheeler chase. However, both CBS and The Athletic believe that both Ryu and Hill will re-sign with LAD. MLBTR, predicts that Hill will re-sign with LAD but not Ryu. MLBTR predicts Ryu will sign with Texas for three years and $54MM. I think it is the three years that will scare LAD, not the AAV. $18MM AAV seems fair and appropriate. I know there will be many loyal LAD/Ryu fans that will be upset if he signs elsewhere with that level of contract.
So no major publication believes that LAD will land any starting pitching outside of re-signing one or both of their own free agent pitchers. To me that will be disappointing. Even if they re-sign Ryu, he is not the equivalent of Cole or Strasburg. That was especially true in the post season where Strasburg went 5-0 and Cole went 4-1. The Dodgers sure could use a pitcher with that post season resume on their roster.
Supposedly these publications and writers have more access to information than we mere fans have. So that is all we have to base our suppositions on. While many of us can fantasize about Anthony Rendon manning the hot corner in Dodger Blue, CBS seems to be more realistic as to who AF may actually be interested in. CBS has not only Rich Hill and Ryu as likely Dodger signees, but also Todd Frazier (Don’t shoot the messenger, that’s CBS’ prediction). One has to admit that Frazier is an AF type of FA, so I smh and say this is not bold. This is spending money just to spend money. CBS has two other player positions they have forecast as Dodger potentials; Howie Kendrick and Ben Zobrist. Neither were considered to be favorites to land with LAD, but the Dodgers were considered at least as a #4 favorite to sign with LAD (Kendrick #2 and Zobrist #4). This is who the so-called insiders are predicting for the Dodgers to land as position players. Only The Athletic believes that the Dodgers will be in the hunt for a difference maker position player…the aforementioned Anthony Rendon (but not as their favorite prediction). The insiders have looked at what AF has done in the past, and do not predict that LAD will Go Bold.
So the prognosticators do not think highly of the Dodgers desire to add a difference maker in the starting rotation or as a position player. But they do believe they will concentrate on relief help. CBS, The Athletic, and MLBTR believe the Dodgers will hotly pursue LHRP Will Smith. Unfortunately, Zaidi slapped a QO on Smith and that makes it less likely that the Dodgers will pay the going rate for the top reliever in free agency and lose a #2 draft pick for said reliever. It is more predictable that Smith will accept the QO from SFG and re-enter free agency next year. Many on here are not sold on Will Smith, and they may be right. He is projected to sign for three years and $42MM (Per MLBTR) and cost a #2. I do believe the Dodgers will consider that price tag too steep and pass. Besides, I believe Atlanta or Houston will be more in line with where Smith will want to land, and both teams figure to be in long discussions with his agent.
CBS also considers the Dodgers to woo Drew Pomeranz, Will Harris, and Dellin Betances, while MLBTR predicts that Pomeranz will sign with LAD. Maybe it is because I have pushed for the Dodgers to pursue Pomeranz since before the end of the season, but it makes too much sense to me. He was all but unhittable in a relief role with Milwaukee. This is a typical AF Dodger project. This reminds me so much of Brandon Morrow. Get it done.
Pomeranz is not going to be a closer, so if not Smith, who? There is no FA closer available so it will have to come from within or a trade. I am sure that Atlanta will look to unload Mark Melancon and Shane Greene, especially if they land Smith. Melancon costs way too much for a questionable closer, and Shane Greene did not do well in that role while with Atlanta. Keone Kela also has closer experience, but he figures to stay in Pittsburgh with Vazquez more likely headed to prison than to the Pirates clubhouse. Ken Giles? Which Ken Giles will you get? He is worth a gamble, but not at a steep prospect cost, and his projected arbitration cost will be $8.4MM. There are others. Watford brought up Carl Edwards Jr. He is more than worth a MiLB contract and ST invite. I may have it wrong, but I think both Watford and Dodgerrick mentioned Michael Wacha, and I think that is a wonderful suggestion. MLBTR predicted Wacha to sign with Detroit for 1 year $6MM. He has a better opportunity to pitch for a contender to get his market back up with LAD much more than with Detroit. I have brought up both Seth Lugo (at the deadline) and Michael Lorenzen as relievers the Dodgers should pursue, but those are trades. We have also discussed in great length internal options that LAD has.
Contract projections for some position players in the second tier that have been brought up:
Josh Donaldson – 3 years at $25MM AAV = $75MM
Nicholas Castellanos – 4 years at $16MM AAV = $64MM (JT contract)
And just for Carlos:
Yasiel Puig – 4 years at $12MM AAV = $48MM
I continue to point out that the Dodgers have $45MM that they can spend to bring an impact player to LAD. Why waste it on around the edge changes when what the team needs is big shoulders. Go Bold!
For what it’s worth, Jeff Passan does have the Dodgers going big. He projects the Dodgers sign8ng Rendon for 5 years, 200 million total.
One other thought, given the Dodgers tendency to make mid season adjustments, what starting pitchers will be free agents in 2021? Wil they first see how May team al perform before pulling the trigger? And how does the rule 5 draft play into what trades the Dodgers might make this off season?
I read the Jeff Passan report, and he is certainly more connected than me. But everything I have read seems to indicate that he will either re-sign with Washington, or become the poster boy for the Texas Rangers’ new stadium. Dallas is not Houston, but it is Texas and $$$ talks.
A team can always wait until the trade deadline, but that almost always involves multiple high level prospects for an elite player on a rental basis. Signing Gerrit Cole this Winter takes $$$ and a 2nd round draft pick. With $45MM, they can sign Cole and maybe move a player or two to sign Castellanos. It is highly unlikely that either will happen, but I can be hopeful.
Rule 5 should not be a factor this year. I am working on my Rule 5 draft article that will come out Friday or Saturday.
The rental aspect is my point. The Dodgers have, over the last few years, waited until the deadline to make their move. They seem far more comfortable going that route versus a major signing. I can see them going all in on a position player but playing the waiting game for a starter.
Supposedly Washington has offered Rendon around 215-220 million but with deferred money. Their offer to Harper had deferred money until he would turn 52. Unclear how far out their offer to Rendon is.
Makes sense. Olney has connected the Dodgers to Rendon as well, and the team’s offer to Harper was much less term, more more AAV than what the Phillies got him with.
Cheap, they’re not, as you so correctly point out. But I have no clue which direction the Dodgers will take, so many opportunities, so many paths and as Friedman pointed out, the organization is in a great position moving forward. But the Dodgers are notorious for misdirection so it will prove difficult to get a handle on their off-season plans.
Strong farm system, payroll flexibility, great young core and an opportunity to do something bold. Plus even more payroll flexibility over the next year or two as additional contracts come off the books.
But when I see numbers thrown around for Cole with predictions of $260 to $280 million over seven or eight years, you kinda stop, take a deep breath and wonder if everybody is crazy. There is so much more risk associated with signing a pitcher to a high end, long term deal and if a team actually does that and the contract goes bad, it could actually wreck a franchise.
The real problem for teams is the cap and the penalties that come with exceeding it. Look no further than Boston. I’m guessing most teams will try to avoid long term commitments that put their franchises above the cap for long periods of time. Will they have to unload Mookie Betts to solve their cap problem.
Looking forward, the Dodgers will need to spend big to keep Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler.
I think the numbers being tossed around or projected for Cole are way off the mark, but if they’re in that ball park, I don’t see the Dodgers pursuing him. If Rendon is available, I can see the Dodgers getting into the bidding with a high end, maybe five year deal.
I think Pomeranz and Betances make a lot of sense, plus there will probably be opportunities in the trade market and Friedman probably has an idea at this point who might be available.
Maybe the Dodgers bring back Hill and pursue Ryu, some logic to that. The Dodgers need another top of the rotation starter so Cole makes the most sense, the fact they have young pitchers like Urias, May and Gonsolin, who will be on innings limits, offers the Dodgers the opportunity to take more risk than a team like the Angels, which is pitching poor. But the price needs to come down into the $220-230 range, to make sense.
As to a reliever, like Smith, how often do those type of deals actually pay off? But Wacha is interesting.
I’m guessing the Dodgers will move a player or two (Pederson, Taylor?) so they will actually end up having more than $45 million available. Good article.
Good takes. I just cannot see any team paying $260MM – $280MM for a pitcher. Crazier things have happened, but it does not make any kind of sense. Arte Moreno is certainly a wild card here. They Angels can afford him this year, and with Pujols $$$ coming off after 2021, and Cozart $$$ coming off after next year, he will be even more affordable in the future.
Last year the predictions for 4 of the top 5 free agents were so woefully off. Per MLBTR:
Harper – 14 years – $420MM – Signed 13 years $330MM
Machado – 13 years $390MM – Signed – 10 years $300MM
Corbin – 6 years/$129MM – Signed 6 years $140MM
Keuchel – 4 years $82MM – Signed in June for 1 year
Kimbrel – 4 years $70MM – Signed in June for 3 years $42MM plus 1 year vesting option w/$1MM buyout
I still believe the biggest obstacle to signing Cole will not be the final contract dollars, but the time it will take before Boras understands that he once again is overselling his client. Corbin signed very early and for more $$$ than was predicted. Anything to learn?
I truly believe that AF does not think that relievers are that critical to building a WS championship team. To keep MT’s blood pressure under control, I will refrain from saying he does not value them. He is certainly not going to spend Kimbrel money and lose a draft pick for Will Smith. Not prudent, even for me.
Bummer is not going to be traded without a very large overpay. Giles is worth a gamble if the prospect cost is not too much. I am with MLBTR and others who believe that AF is going to target Pomeranz. That is exactly who AF looks for in a reliever. Just as Brandon Morrow did for SD at the end of 2016, Pomeranz did for Milwaukee last year. It was Morrow’s 2016 that pushed me to state in 2017 ST that Morrow would be the setup for KJ by June, and dominate. Wacha is an unknown in that role, but has a higher ceiling (and a lower floor) than does Dylan Floro.
I agree that the Dodgers will move a player or two, but unless they sign a RH OF bat like Castellanos or trade for one like Betts, Joc is not going anywhere. Too many RHP and Joc’s 36 HRs says they need him. Plus Joc has not been the problem in October.
David Schoenfeld at ESPN.com has an article this morning about this year’s free agent class. Here’s one our host might not enjoy:
“Guy most likely to be the biggest bust: Nicholas Castellanos. Last year, the answer was A.J. Pollock, mostly due to concerns about his injury history and leaving a hitter-friendly environment. Pollock had value because he was the only legitimate center fielder in free agency, but sure enough he got hurt and played only 86 games. He wasn’t really a bust, although he was a platoon player by the postseason.
Castellanos likewise has a profile with some big pluses and big concerns. He can obviously hit, coming off his best season in which he bashed 58 doubles and hit .289/.337/.525 — including a 51-game stretch with the Cubs when he hit .321 and slugged .646. But he’s a below-average corner outfielder who doesn’t walk much and might get paid based on those two months in Chicago. At $15 million or so per season, he’s probably fine for three or four years. But a big annual average deal and more years could be a risky for a guy who ends up as a DH in a couple of years.”
Castellanos will probably stay in Chicago, but move to the South Side with the ChiSox. I think many AL teams think he could be a Nelson Cruz or Edwin Encarnacion. ChiSox believe they can compete in the AL Central next year.
First, I like Pomeranz a lot, and the Dodgers could offer him a nice guarantee with incentives for number of games started. Michael Wacha for closer? Sore shoulder, and his time in the Cardinals bullpen last season was abysmal; Pedro Baez is better, in fact, much better — and I am not a Baez fan. A pitcher who I think the Dodgers may consider is Raisel Iglesias of the Reds. With Lorenzen and Amir Garrett much less expensive, it will not be surprising for the Reds to trade Iglesias who is making $9M in each of 2020 and 2021, and coming off a subpar year in 2019. Reportedly, the Reds want a centerfielder so Nick Senzel can move to second base. Dodgers could part with either Chris Taylor, or Kiké Hernandez for centerfield, and throw-in a reliever like Yimi Garcia. What about trading Austin Barnes and a pitcher like Mitchell White for Robert Gsellman — not a closer, but excellent arm with great spin rates.
Sorry, Pomeranz sentence is misleading. Guarantee would be as a reliever, he would have incentive for any games where he is used as a starter.
I think Castellanos will be pursued by Dodgers. One year in LF, then moved to first base. Dodgers could then trade Pederson to the Indians for Kluber – may have to include another minor leaguer like Starlin Heredia, or another similar prospect. If not Castellanos, then Dodgers might consider a trade with the Mariners for Haniger and move him to LF. What would Mariners want in return? Perhaps a starting pitcher like Maeda; or Stripling and Beaty? Love to have Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates, but that is not going to happen,
Bryan Reynolds has been on my wish list for some time, but I agree, he is staying in Pittsburgh. That is especially true now that Neal Huntington is no longer there to take advantage of.
AC, regarding pitching for me, the Dodgers must take care of their starting rotation. Retaining Ryu makes the most sense of any other suggestion that has been offered. He was one of the top pitchers this year and will be available to the Dodgers in spite of Boras, IMO. The Dodgers have been loyal to him and I think he will be loyal in return. There is no reason to think he will have a melt down next season. He was simply too good and should be our #1 ace, again.
I cannot see any reason for Castellanos being a bust next season. He is the choice if the Dodgers insist they need a RH bat.
I can see why you like Pomeranz, especially since he started relieving in Milwaukee. He and Wacha are interesting candidates for the BP.
In general, I don’t see them going bold, but who knows? Retaining Ryu, and possibly bringing in another starter, not top tier, and repeating last years rotation plus another young gun or two, minus Maeda going to the BP, should suffice. It would be too much of a gamble to have 3 young arms, Urias, May, Gonsolin, to fill out the rotation when none of them have ever had a full season on the mound. Doesn’t make sense. They really need two more starters if Ryu leaves. This could possibly force them to go bolder than they want to. Good starters are not cheap.
Todd Frazier? Seems like a move caused by indigestion. Why would they want him? At best, a Joc-like hitter. They don’t need any more multi-position players. They are stacked already. Are they really that afraid of JT not being able to handle 3B? Spend the money on Castellanos if they really want a RH bat.
Turner’s defense was just below ML average in 2017, declined a bit more in 2018, and nose dived in 2019 at third base finishing 21st out of 25 players who were considered regulars (number of games played) at the position. Love to have Castellanos, but moving Pollock to another team will be a difficult challenge, one that I don’t think Friedman wants to make and admit that he made a mistake
I am sure I once heard Vince Scully say that Baseball was the only game where the defense had the ball most of the time. That is probably why I am so keen on good defense, be it in the infield and outfield. I also think the pitchers are part of that and I repeat, I love a good fielding pitcher. But also the bullpen is part of the defense to keep inherited runners from scoring and hold the lead. I think we can improve on that by adding some needed help in the relief corps. Whom to get? I will those more knowledgeable than I to decide. Just my opinion.
Good article AC.
A great article in today’s The Athletic about Allan Roth, the first baseball statistician who worked for a baseball team (the Dodgers)
https://theathletic.com/1303284/2019/11/07/the-outsiders-advantage-freedom-to-ditch-the-old-ways-and-embrace-new-solutions-for-a-sports-problems/?source=dailyemail
Pomeranz, Betances, Wacha, Lugo, Lorenzen – all great possibilities at the right price, although I think Lugo would be a tough get from the Mets.
One other name to toss in the hopper, Blake Treinen. He had a miserable year last year and is probably going to earn about 8 mil if the A’s take him to arbitration. Not likely. I doubt he’s tradeable at this point since no team is likely to put themselves on the hook for that kind of salary. He’s likely to be non-tendered. That’s where we come in. I don’t know how many teams would go after him but I think we should at least see what he would sign for.
I just figured you could give a call to fellow Valley Dude, Brodie Van Wagenen, and tell him he needs to do a solid for his home town team and trade Seth Lugo to LAD. What the heck, have him include Diaz as well.
Working on it AC. It looks like he’s willing to send us Lugo and Diaz for Josh Sborz. Deal should be finalized by tomorrow.
CODY BELLINGER WINS SILVER SLUGGER AWARD
Outfielder Wins First Louisville Silver Slugger Award
LOS ANGELES – Los Angeles Dodgers’ outfielder Cody Bellinger has been awarded with the 2019 National League Louisville Silver Slugger Award.
He is the first Dodger to win a Louisville Silver Slugger since Corey Seager won back-to-back awards from 2016-2017 and the first Dodger outfielder to receive the award since Matt Kemp in 2011. With his first honor, Bellinger is the 19th player in franchise history to earn the award since its inception in 1980 and it’s the 27th time a Dodger has received a Silver Slugger award. He becomes the fifth player in franchise history to earn the Rawlings Gold Glove and Louisville Silver Slugger in the same season, joining Adrían González (2014), Matt Kemp (2011, 2009), Russell Martin (2007) and Dusty Baker (1981).
In his third season with the Dodgers, Bellinger, 24, appeared in a team-high 156 games, batting .305 (170-for-558) with 34 doubles, 47 homers and 115 RBI. The Arizona native ranked among the NL leaders in batting average (.305, 9th), OBP (.406, 3rd), slugging percentage (.629, 2nd), OPS (1.035, 3rd), total bases (351, 1st), home runs (47, 3rd), runs (121, 2nd), RBI (115, 7th), walks (95, 6th) and extra-base hits (84, 2nd).
The National League Most Valuable Player finalist concluded his regular season campaign recording career-highs in runs, hits, doubles, home runs, RBI, walks and stolen bases (15). He finished fourth in the Majors in homers and third in franchise history with 47 homers in a season, finishing behind only Shawn Green (49) and Adrian Beltre (48). His 26 homers at Dodger Stadium set a new franchise record for homers at home, while his 18 homers against left-handed pitchers were the most in the National League.
The Louisville Silver Slugger Award winners are decided by a vote of Major League Baseball managers and coaches who select the players they determine to be the best offensive producers at each position in the American and National Leagues. Selections are based on a combination of offensive statistics, including batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, as well as the managers’ and coaches’ general impressions of a player’s overall offensive value. Managers and coaches are not allowed to vote for players on their own teams. The accounting firm of Mountjoy Chilton Medley LLP verified the tabulation of balloting.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Pos Player 2019 Team Award(s) Won
C Mitch Garver Minnesota Twins 1st
1B Carlos Santana Cleveland Indians 1st
2B D.J. LeMahieu New York Yankees 1st
SS Xander Bogaerts Boston Red Sox 3rd (15’, 16’)
3B Alex Bregman Houston Astros 1st
OF Mookie Betts Boston Red Sox 3rd (15’, 18’)
OF Mike Trout Los Angeles Angels 7th (12’, 13’, 14’, 15’, 16, 17’, 18’)
OF George Springer Houston Astros 2nd (17’)
DH Nelson Cruz Minnesota Twins 3rd (15’, 17’)
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Pos Player 2019 Team Award(s) Won
P Zach Greinke Arizona/Houston 2nd (13’)
C J.T. Realmuto Philadelphia Phillies 2nd (18’)
1B Freddie Freeman Atlanta Braves 1st
2B Ozzie Albies Atlanta Braves 1st
SS Trevor Story Colorado Rockies 2nd (18’)
3B Anthony Rendon Washington Nationals 2nd (14’)
OF Christian Yelich Milwaukee Brewers 3rd (16’, 18’)
OF Ronald Acuña Jr. Atlanta Braves 1st
OF Cody Bellinger Los Angeles Dodgers 1st
BA Listed 14 late round sleepers from the 2019 draft.
Here’s one:
5. Jeff Belge, LHP, Dodgers (18th round)
Belge is legally blind in his right eye after multiple freak injuries—including one stone skipping incident that led to a shattered cornea and one wrestling accident that led to a second surgery on the same cornea. But his stuff offers real appeal to scouts.
Belge has a 93-95 mph fastball and a plus curveball from the left side. The St. John’s product has a great frame and is listed at 6-foot-5, 225 pounds. He posted a 1.16 ERA over 23.1 innings across three leagues in a pro debut that culminated at low Class A Great Lakes.
Control will be the key or Belge’s development, but if he can improve that area of his game, he has the stuff to impact a major league bullpen.
Both DC and I mentioned Belge’s name quite a bit last summer. Jeff was absolutely filthy at Ogden in the Rookie Pioneer League, which is a hitter’s paradise. In 10 games, 17.0 IP he pitched to a 0.53 ERA with 26 K , 9 BB, 3 HBP, and 0 HR. It’s those walks and HBP that could impede his growth as Mark alluded to. He was a late promotion to Great Lakes, full season A league and pitched in 4 games with 4.2 IP. But his control issues were even more exaggerated with 5 walks to go with his 3 strike outs. Still no HRs.
I think BA did a good job with identifying Belge as a potential late draftee with a hopeful future. There is a lot to like. He is one of the many talented 2019 LAD draftees penciled in for the bullpen. AF and Brandon Gomes did a good job at addressing a concern in the system.
Wasn’t the Dodger offer to Harper something like 4 years $45M AAV?
Rendon might take that.
That would move Turner to first and I was just getting used to Muncy at first and Lux at second. Or, would that move Muncy to second and Lux to short? Or, maybe Lux moves to CF.
I would pay that to Rendon before I would pay it to Harper.
Yes, but Harper is considered a slight tier above Rendon I believe. I don’t fully understand why, other than age.
Perhaps some can explain or theorize?
I as well would pay it to Rendon before Harper. Although I’m not sure I would pay it to Rendon for 4 years.
Mark, you mentioned the other day, and I read it elsewhere, that Rendon had a career year in 2019. And I agree with that in absolute terms, but not so much in relative terms, given the fact that his numbers in 2019, along with everybody else, were affected by the juiced baseball. If his numbers remain the same or decline based on the baseball used, then they will only be relative to everyone else.