Due to the press of work, my intended post will have to wait until next week or the week thereafter. I have been working on a post that explored the topic of “What makes a good Baseball Manager.” In my research I came across an article by C. Trent Rosecrans, written for Baseball ProGUESTus, in 2012, entitled “What the Insiders Say Makes a Good Manager.” Rosecrans is currently a senior MLB writer for The Athletic. He previously covered the Reds for the Cincinnati Enquirer and the Cincinnati Post and also covered Major League Baseball for CBSSports.com. This article was so good, that I quote from it almost exclusively.
Walt Jocketty, the current Executive Adviser to the CEO of the Cincinnati Reds(and rated by Fansided as the 9th best General Manager of All-time) had this to say about what makes a good manager:
“I think a good manager, most everyone knows how to run a game and so forth, but a good manager is one who is prepared and spends a lot of time in preparation with his coaches and getting prepared for each game and series. He has great communication with his players and is able to communicate not only positively but also sit on them if he has to if there’s a problem. The guy also has to be able to deal with the media, the front office, the ownership, there’s a lot of variables that are involved with being a good manager. It’s not just wins and losses, because a lot of it depends on the players you have. If you have good players, it’s usually a lot easier to manage. I think most guys’ strategy is similar, how they handle a pitching staff, how they handle a bullpen are important factors. Construction of a lineup and how they use their roster over the course of a season is also important. Most people don’t see what goes on behind the scenes. I’ve had conversations with Dusty(Baker) about this, and I’ve had conversations with Tony(LaRussa) about this, but there are so many situations over the course of a season and the course of a game that they have to do something that’s unorthodox or different and people right away question it. You think they don’t understand? There was something that was obviously involved that made them do it in an unconventional fashion. Most people don’t know that, understand that, or care to.
It’s extremely important for a manager and general manager to have a good relationship. You don’t have to be best friends, but you have to have communication and respect for each other and a good working relationship because it’s so vitally important to the success of the team and the organization. You talk about all those things we talked about—how they handle certain situations—but what it comes down to is how you interact with that person.”
Despite managing nearly 3,000 games and winning three Manager of the Year awards, Dusty Baker is one of the most controversial and oft‑criticized managers in the game. While fans often criticize Baker, more often than not, his former players praise him for his abilities as a leader. Baker had this to say:
“Your job is to get the best out of your talent and personnel that you have. You’re only as good as your personnel, but if you can get the best out of your personnel and keep them together and keep them playing on a daily basis. You’ve got to keep the right buttons and all this, but the right buttons only appear right if the players come through. It’s how you mesh your team together, how you hopefully have everybody pulling in the same direction with no envy, no jealousy, no selfishness. If you’re going to be a selfish player, you better be a hell of a player. You can accept that if they have such tremendous production. And how you handle the race, this is a long race we’re in, and sometimes you have to bite the bullet for them. Sometimes you have to tell the truth about them. It’s a rewarding job, but it’s a tough job.
The bulk part of the job (the media, the fans) aren’t supposed to see. You don’t see the disciplinarian part, you don’t hear about it. The bulk of the job is when you have constant meetings with different guys. The bulk of the job now is to continue to teach guys because they get here so early. You’re teaching on a daily basis. Most of the time you have to assume they don’t know, but you can’t treat them like kids, you have to treat them like men. A lot of times you find out what they don’t know after a mistake. A lot of my job depends on the job my coaches do. Everyone has a department, and my job is to let them allow them to do their job and not micromanage them, but to be in charge of everything.”
Pete Mackanin, who was the interim manager of the Phillies, before they hired Gabe Kaplar had this to say about managing:
There’s so many different aspects to it. Manager, to me, he’s the leader of the team and he sets the tone. He makes sure the players are prepared to play and makes the on‑field decisions. The beauty of baseball is that it’s so easily second‑guessed. There are so many ways to go in a game situation—whether you bunt, you hit and run or you let him swing or move the runners 3‑1, 3‑2, handling the bullpen, who to bring in to hit, when, all those. There are so many ways you can go, but someone has to make the decision. That’s the job, making those decisions.
I think [in‑game strategy] is more than (10‑15 percent), I think a lot of people discount that. Certainly, if you have a lot of good players, they make it easier and the players make that decision for you. It’s certainly more than 10 percent. You can get away with going any way you want if you have the right talent. The other 50 percent is handling the personalities and trying to put players in the best position to succeed. The more players that succeed, the better the team’s going to be. Also handling personalities, especially with the amount of money that’s being made, it becomes very difficult.
Former Pirate star, Andrew McCutcheon had this to add:
The big thing is someone you can trust, someone you know is going to have your back in any situation, someone who isn’t worried about winning, but you as a person before they worry about winning. Those are big keys for being a manager, just having the trust of your players. The winning part, you want to do that, but that’s the least of your worries. You go out and take care of your guys and earn their trust.
Judging for Manager of the Year, it’s just going to be the winning percentage, who had a good season and finished at the top. That’s going to be the deciding factor. It’s a lot different from a player’s perspective. We don’t look at winning percentage. If you have a winning record or a losing record, if you win 100 games or lose 100 games, it doesn’t mean that one manager was so much better than another manager, the team was much better. It’s not [the manager] that wins the game, they’re here to manage the game. It’s up to us to win it.
Our beloved former Dodger (sarcasm), Juan Pierre has played for a total of eight different managers: Buddy Bell, Clint Hurdle, Jeff Torborg, Jack McKeon, Dusty Baker, Joe Torre, Ozzie Guillen, and Charlie Manuel. He had this to say:
A good manager? To me, just communication. Communication. That’s it for me. The best managers I’ve had, they had an open‑door policy. You could go in there and talk to them at any time, and you can voice your opinion. Whatever they tell you, whether it’s what you want to hear or not, it’s honest. I don’t need it sugarcoated, just honest. That’s the main thing —communication and honesty.
Managers
that were the best, Dusty was one of the best. Ozzie Guillen was another that
was really good with (communication). All of them had good and bad things as
far as it goes. Charlie is a great manager as far as you can always talk to
him. He always has your back. Everyone has good qualities. The two I most
enjoyed playing for were Dusty and Ozzie. They get the most criticism because
they take it all. They’ll never throw you under the bus in the papers. They’ll
have your back and then talk to you individually. (Guillen) has a rhyme and
reason for everything he does—a lot of the time it doesn’t make sense (to the
player), but he has a reason for what he does. A lot of stuff he does is to
take it off the player. I know in Chicago, the media ran to him every day, and
they’d be in front of him an hour, and the players could just go about their
business and don’t have to talk to them
Miguel Cairo (former Dodger) who currently works for the New York Yankees in Player Development and is an occasional infield coordinator throughout the Yankee minor league system, played for nine different clubs in a 17‑year career, and post career has worked as a special assistant to General Manager Walt Jocketty. Cairo aspires to be a manager one day and had this to say about what makes a good manager:
You have to know how to manage personalities. That’s so important. You have to deal with so many people, that’s 25 personalities, 25 egos. You want to know those 25 players and how to get them to play for you and get them to give you everything they have every day. It’s about confidence and trust—and if they trust you, that’s half the battle right there. The 25 guys, something I learned and I hope when I retire from baseball and I coach or manage or whatever I do, I hope I remember how hard it is to play the game. You can’t forget about that. You have to let them know, as a manager, that you know how hard it is to play. Managing personalities is the biggest thing.
I’d take a lot of stuff from different managers. I got a chance to play for three managers that could go to the Hall of Fame. I can’t tell you exactly what I’d take from them, because I don’t want to give out too much, but I have a pretty good idea why all three have been successful in their careers. I like to watch, I like to listen. One thing they have in common is the ability to have 25 players believe in you. ¼ You have to trust what you have. You want the 25 players to play for you. That’s very important. The star of the team is as important as the 25th guy. There’s 25 players, and you have to use them through 162 games, and you don’t know when that 25th guy is going to help you in a game to get you to the playoffs or gain a game in the wild card. You have to make sure you keep all 25 guys involved all season.
Former Reds catcher Ryan Hanigan who also has aspirations of managing someday, had this to say about managers:
It’s impossible for anyone to know what’s going on inside a team if they’re not around that team. Obviously, players speak of a manager one way or another, and you can get a feel of how they feel about managers across the board. I’ve played for Dusty for a lot of years, and he’s been awesome. Before that, I wasn’t here long enough to be entrenched in the team, but Dusty embodies those qualities (respect, trust). He’s definitely a players’ manager, we know he has our back. That’s a great trait. If he has something to say, it’s going to be private and respectful.
There’s a lot more to it. He’s getting his players to believe in an idea and a way of doing things that everyone’s on board with. He’s creating an attitude, and he’s trying to congeal personalities, really. Every team has different styles and personalities and bring them all together. That’s another thing Dusty’s great at, he’s a chameleon. He’s been a lot of different places and done a lot of different things, so he can relate to everyone. That’s a huge thing, to be able to relate to every player on a different level.
Joel Hanrahan (former Dodger) and currently the pitching coach for the Pirates’ Class AA Altoona Curve of the Eastern League, had this to add about managers:
I’d say it’s a manager that incorporates all his guys on a couple‑of‑day basis, guys that get their bench players in every couple of games to get them some at‑bats, a guy who knows how to work a bullpen. That’s got to be one of the hardest things, how to run a bullpen not only for that game, but for the next game and down the line.
(Fans and media) don’t see anything, to be honest with you. I think everybody has something they can tell you, the fans see, they read the papers and stuff. But to be honest, 98 percent (of a manager’s job) is stuff they don’t see.
A player can make a manager look good or bad. They make the decisions, but we go out there and play the game. That’s the hard part, because sometimes they take the blame for the way we play. When it comes down to it, it comes down to executing in the game. Everyone’s in the big leagues for a reason, and they should be able to execute.
It seems to me that, like in business, a good manager will know his players. He’ll know their skills and personalities. He has to know that not all players are created equal, some need a stern voice, and some need a softer voice; then he must put his players in positions to succeed. This is a fluid situation, this can change as the season wears on. Good managers should not be afraid to make changes as necessary for the good of the team. Good managers should also be focused on the big picture. We as fans, judge everything game by game. Happy when we win, unhappy when we lose. But as we know, a baseball season is long and includes a lot of “failure” and losing. Even the top teams this year, lost on average 60 or more times. Knowing that it is important to stay focused on the long haul. A good manager must also be honest at all times. Players may not like what they are being told, but honesty breeds respect. If the players don’t respect their manager, the season will soon be lost. And, a good manager, keeps the pressure off his players. Baseball managers who accept or deflect the pressure off the team are priceless.
I’ll let you debate whether or not Doc Roberts has any of these characteristics. Have I questioned some of his moves, particularly in the playoffs? Absolutely! But as I’ve said before, it’s easy for me to make decisions from the comfort of my recliner, with remote in hand. I do not possess 99% of the information that DR and the coaching staff have available to them at any given moment. Then again, if Will Smith’s drive to wall in the bottom of the ninth finds the seats, as it would have 90% of the time during the season, we probably wouldn’t be having this discussion.
Some last random thoughts:
• I agree with both Mark and AC – I think we should, primarily, stay the course. I also believe that the Dodgers should go bold on at least one or two moves this offseason. Last season they surprised us with the Yasiel Puig trade. While that brought two very nice prospects, it did not bring any immediate help in return to the team(I say that hesitatingly, in that it opened a spot for Alex Verdugo to play, and that was a positive move). This offseason, I would like to see them surprise us with a trade or signing that does the opposite and brings an impact player or two(preferably a front of the line starting pitcher and a solid reliever). The front office has not been afraid to acquire such players at the trade deadline, but let’s do it before the season starts.
• It is my opinion that neither Rich Hill or Hyun-jin Ryu return to the Dodgers next year. As much as I like them both, their history of injury would not, in my mind, warrant they type of money that is rumored that they are seeking. Then again, I wouldn’t mind Hill in a player-coach capacity.
• I would love to see the Dodgers with more of a set line-up next year. I understand the concept of depth and versatility, but I grew up with the Dodgers most always having a set line-up. The thoughts of a Garvey, Lopes, Russell and Cey infield playing together for as long as they did, seems foreign in today’s game. I would also love seeing them have a legitimate lead-off hitter in the style of a Rafael Furcal or Davey Lopes, having a blend of speed and power, with good bat to ball skills.
• One of my choices for prospects to keep an eye on next year is Justin Bruihl. A free agent pitcher signed by the Dodgers out of Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, he throws strikes and misses bats. He should start off with the Quakes next year.
• It is my opinion that Bellinger should be the full-time right fielder next year. He could win a gold-glove at first, and probably in center as well. However, It seemed that his hitting decline started after he hurt his shoulder while making a diving stop at first base. It may have nothing to do with his hitting, but it’s my thought.
• The Dodgers let one “big” right-handed bat go, as they declined their option on Jedd Gyorko on Sunday.
Good morning 2D2. I am sitting here with my new yesterday’s acquisition of a new player in this household. She is not a pitcher or rh hitter but a kitten rescued from a kill zone. I am trying to keep her from helping me write this.
I read your most interesting piece on what makes a good manager. To me, the things that stand out from your article are: communication and getting the players to believe in your system. I hope those qualities come from Doc Roberts, and I think for the most part, they do.
I also agree on having a set lineup and acquiring pitching, starting or relief. Good job and thank you for all the work you put into your post.
Kasten seems to want a Manager that can win a war and not just a battle. That gets a team to the playoffs but a playoff game is a battle. I like winning wars and will take my chances with the battles especially if the best team will win most of those battles regardless of one or two managerial decisions that could be second guessed.
I would like to see an infield of Seager, Lindor, Lux, Muncy for the next 5 years and would be just as happy if Bellinger replaced Muncy in that infield.
I like Lindor too but he will going to cost you Lux, Ruiz and probably Pederson… at the very least.
Then in two years, if he does well, he will get a huge deal.
Lindor’s game is predicated on speed and quickness and I could see him really dropping off as he reaches 30.
I would not do it. Lux may be better (or not).
Agreed, Mark.
IMO, Joel Hanrahan had the the most poignant points
1. Handling a bullpen is probably the most difficult in-game task facing a manager.
2. 98% of the fans and media have no idea what a manager does behind the scenes. Some may think they do.
3. The players are the ones between the lines, and they are MLB players that should be able to execute.
From my 2% viewpoint, Doc is a very well thought of communicator. Maybe he handled Rich Hill poorly in WS games, but Hill has said that he loves this team and wants to come back and finish. Would he say that if he did not trust or respect Doc? Sheer conjecture either way. Most thought that KJ was p’d off after Game 5, The fact that he did not opt out means nothing as he was not going to walk away from his guaranteed money, but he is in AZ getting ready for next year.
In many of our opinions, Doc does not handle a bullpen very well. And we fans are so smart sitting in the comfort of our homes making decisions, many (if not most, if not all) times after the fact. I like to think that Maeda would have been the ideal pitcher to face down Rendon, and Kolarek getting the ball to face Soto. I would like to think that Dustin May would have been ideal to face Kendrick. The problem with May and or Kelly and or Baez and or Urias in that situation is the lack of control Dodger pitchers seem to have coming in mid-inning. You do not want to walk someone with Zimmerman coming up. The point is, some thought that Kersh was the right pitcher to come back in the 8th, some do not. We will never know what might have happened had there been a different script.
But is that all on Doc, or does AF have a part to play here? Doc can only pitch the players on the roster, not from some fan’s wish list.
My only complaint with Roberts is I feel he is not a good game manager, fair or not , that is my opinion.
Molly Knight of The Athletic wrote this today:
“The Dodgers will enter the 2020 season with a bona fide superstar leading their rotation in Walker Buehler. The kid has been nothing short of magnificent on the biggest stages in the playoffs, and I believe he will continue to get better. A still-effective Clayton Kershaw is signed through the next couple seasons, and he’s another guy who can help fortify a playoff rotation, now that we’re all clear that he is NOT to be used on short rest, in any capacity, ever again.
We would all like to see Rich Hill return to Los Angeles, but his injury history means he can’t be relied on to fill out one of the four starter roles the Dodgers will need next October. Hyun-Jin Ryu is awesome, but the club might lose him to free agency. Dustin May could be a star, but it’s too much to expect him to serve as a No. 3 starter on a team with championship-or-bust expectations. Kenta Maeda is a decent fourth starter, but he’s proven to be one of the best playoff weapons the club has out of the bullpen every October, and that’s a crazy valuable piece to shift into another role.
All of this is to say, the Dodgers MUST sign Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg if they are serious about winning a championship in 2020.”
To the Front Office and Andrew Friedman:
We’ve all have waited long enough as fans to win a World series Championship. This coming offseason,the Dodgers have money under the cap, approx 45 million, a strong farm system to make trades,drawing nearly 4 million fans, a lucrative TV deal which equates into one the highest revenue streams in all of baseball. There are no more excuses for signing at least one of the big FA,Rendon,Cole or Strassburg. There are no excuses and the only excuse is not getting it done.I personally would sign Rendon for the much needed right hand bat to balance the lineup with a high per year and shorter term in years.. A secondary move would be to acquire Wheeler. I watch Met games if the Dodgers are not on and he has one of the best fastballs in baseball. With working with new pitching coach Prior, he could develop into something special .With a loaded talented farm system and regulars like Pederson,Stripling, Barnes and Kiki or Taylor,the Dodgers could trade and acquire much needed bullpen help. Your going to lose an important fan base if you bring back the same cast of characters and make no MAJOR changes.
I’m sure they will read this.
If signing Strasburg, Cole or Rendon GUARANTEED a WORLD Championship, then Kasten and Mark Walter would be all over it… maybe sign all three.
BUT IT DOES NOT!
In fact, it could be just the opposite.
One injury… one regression… one Felipe Vasquez move….
How can signing Cole or Strasburg be the opposite of winning a WS Championship? Before any trades or Non-Tender candidates, the Dodgers are $45MM below CBT Threshold. None of those players will cost $45MM. Cole probably $35MM and Strasburg $30MM, give or take a couple of million AAV. There is another $15-$20MM of potential payroll available depending on trades and or Non Tender.
Are you suggesting that the Dodgers should stick around the $170MM threshold? I am not a proponent of spending money just to get to the CBT threshold, but to ignore the fact that the Dodgers do not have a legit co-Ace is more dangerous than not paying for one. Would it guarantee a WS championship? Absolutely not. But I would like my chances more with Cole or Strasburg as the co #1.
The status quo has not worked. Maybe it will in 2020, but not with the pitching staff as it currently exists. Shake it up. Go Bold and sign a difference maker. It does not have to block Urias or May or Gonsolin or Gray (2021). But what it does do is push them down to a spot in the rotation.
Buehler
Cole/Strasburg
Kershaw
Urias
May/Maeda
or
Buehler
Kershaw
Urias
May
Maeda/Stripling
That may be NL West good, but not WS good. The Dodgers bullpen was not good enough so starting pitchers needed to assume that role, and outside of Maeda, they did not perform. Maybe they would have for the NLCS or the WS, but somehow I doubt it. They can sign Cole or Stras and stay under the CBT threshold, spending less than they did in 2019. Seems to me to be a strange situation that this should not be considered.
San Diego says they are going after Strasburg. With Strasburg/Chris Paddack/Joey Lucchesi/Eric Lauer and another FA #4 or #5 pitcher in the rotation until MacKenzie Gore is ready. They also have Garrett Richards who is back from TJ surgery and was a very good pitcher with the Angels. If he is healthy, he could slot in nicely in that rotation. They need a 2B and both Scooter Gennett and Starlin Castro are high on their wish list. They already have a good bullpen, that they can add on to.
I know you want Castellanos, but he is more likely headed to the AL. Even if that were not the case, the Dodgers would not sign him unless they were able to trade AJ Pollock. But if they cannot trade Pollock and sign Castellanos, you think that the same team sans Ryu and Hill is good enough to do something that this team has not been able to do in the last three years?
I am not saying they need to be a $170 Million team.
I just would not pay the numbers they are asking. Now, if the price drops, then consider it. Strasburg scares me with arm issues. Cole is a better and Rendon had a career year (I promise you it was).
I would take any of those guys at the right price, but I think the Dodgers need a closer and RH Bat more. Hell: Two Closers! Maybe Kenley figures it out… maybe he doesn’t.
Factor in Lux (whom I have been slow to warm to – I admit that), who was the Minor League Player of the Year. Typically those guys are pretty good. He wasn’t spectacular in his “cup of coffee” but Buehler was horrid in the same situation. Lux is “odds on” ROY. Man, that is a boost.
They need that big RH bat (and I’m OK with Rendon) and a Closer(s).
BTW, what you say about the Dodgers bullpen was even more true with the NATS! The difference: Execution!
So the bad Astros bullpen stepped up in 2017. The bad Bosox bullpen stepped up in 2018. The bad Nats bullpen stepped up in 2019. The bad Dodgers bullpen has still not stepped up. We can make comparisons within teams, but when it is widely reported that the team has had bullpen issues for the last three years, and the problem does not get fixed for when it counts, it is irrelevant what the other teams did in the regular season. If they continue to falter (and they have for 3 years at least), then one has to come to the conclusion that the LAD relief pitchers are just not good enough in the clutch and something has to change.
One improvement is Maeda permanently to the pen. I do not know what closer will be available, but the only FA closer is Will Smith. You may be right that the cost for him may be too high. The only closer that I know of that would be considered to be tradeable would be Ken Giles. He is worth a shot, but I would not count on him succeeding in the clutch because he hasn’t. Keone Kela is pretty safe to stay in Pittsburgh now that Vazquez is in serious criminal trouble. I still cannot see Brad Hand being traded, nor Kirby Yates. Chapman re-signed with NYY. None of Aaron Bummer, Will Harris, or Jose Leclerc are closers, but could be effective late inning guys. But if I am going to gamble on potential, then I hope AF looks at Drew Pomeranz as a FA, and Michael Lorenzen in a trade with Cincy. Pomeranz was near unhittable as a reliever for Milwaukee, and Lorenzen has great arm if he can control it. Maybe with some help from Mark Prior, in one inning stints he can dominate. Maybe not, but the cost would not be prohibitive, and all of the Dodgers potential relievers on their roster will still be there.
The first step in getting better is admitting when there is a problem. The Dodgers bullpen is a problem and AF has to admit that.
BTW, do Brandon Morrow and Blake Treinen get minor league contracts with a ST invite? Sure couldn’t hurt if either or both are agreeable.
It’s very easy to find reasons not to do something, but at the end of the day all evidence points to value in sounding big for starting pitching.
The things which differentiate managers in the regular season are different from the factors which most matter in the playoffs. The playoffs are like a high-stakes poker game, where every move or non-move is magnified. Sometimes you make good moves and they don’t pay off, or sometimes you make bad moves and get away with it (Mattingly having Uribe try to bunt with a man on second and none out against the Braves). But the smart moves have a much better chance of paying off, just like in poker. Roberts in this analogy is a mediocre high-stakes poker player who knows the general way to play, but cannot adapt or go against the conventions, or change strategies when necessary, and thus is at a big disadvantage when the big chips are down. Mediocre poker players rarely turn into good ones; what they “learn” from past mistakes often leads to overcompensation or taking the wrong lesson from what happened before.
Good for Molly Knight, who is correct that the Dodgers need to sign Cole or Strasburg. They are not going to win a title without another top pitcher, which is even made more glaring by the fact that someone else will get those two. Let’s see, if the Yankees get Cole and the Cardinals get Strasburg, just for example, do you think the Dodgers will be better than those two teams? Any current contender-status team which gets one of those two probably vaults ahead of the Dodgers, thus our only hope is that they both go to really bad teams, pretty unlikely. Not enough people take into account the “subtraction by addition” aspect; that every time we pass on a high-priced FA, we don’t get him, plus some other team does.
Eventually we will learn that the Kasten “model” cannot win titles in this era (maybe his idea that if you have good regular seasons and make the playoffs, you might have everything go your way, will pay off one time in 15 years), because there are so many star FAs, that if you don’t get a few of the best, you are at a disadvantage which becomes greater over time. And we really don’t have that many trade pieces, though people seem eager to want to give up Kike’, whom no one team really cares about much,: or Barnes, who will get you almost nothing; or Pederson, who might get you a relief pitcher and a throw-in, not much more (he hits .245, please note): or Stripling, who has some potential, but not more than most of the staff of any club). But no one really wants to give up our top young prospects. So that means that we cannot get a top pitcher via trade, and we are apparently unwilling to seriously bid to get one via free agency. That leaves desperately hoping that our young pitchers become stars, which general MLB history shows is not all that likely. And the ultimate “need” to pivot off the big FA names and toward pitchers who have some ability but who are underperforming, with the hope that we can somehow turn them into gold, has real risks. Getting someone like Kazmir instead of a higher-level pitcher, is an example of that; Kelly is another, so is Pollock. You can’t bargain shop your way to a title, unless you have a genius GM, and are fortunate. Other franchises have good GMs, too, and owners who are more willing to go big.
Everyone seems to forget about Julio Urias. Age 23. 2.49 ERA bouncing around between starter and reliever. 2 Years removed from surgery. He was brought around slowly so he would be ready for 2020.
Up until age 23, the most innings Stephen Strausburg ever pitched was 68. At age 23 he pitched 160.
At age 31, he has only pitched 200 innings twice.
Also, I think the “Kasten Model” is more relevant than ever before, now that Free Agents can’t Roid up!
Getting Kazmir, Anderson and McCarthy was a product of the times while the Dodgers were over the luxury cap threshold. They had to get under. To be over is a very stupid way to run a business. Oh, you might slightly go over from time to time, but money absolutely does not win championships.
Name the last time the team with the highest payroll won. That’s a fallacy perpetuated by fans who know nothing about the business of baseball.
2019 Luxury Tax Payroll
1. Red Sox – $241.7 Million (their President lost his job)
2. Cubs – $234.7 Million (Epstein knew spending was not the solution but did anyway and now they are a trainwreck)
3. Yankees – $231.1 Million (loaded with hitters but no pitching and their relievers are getting OLD)
4. Nationals – $200.5 Million (pure Cinderella Story with a lot of luck involved)
5. Dodgers – $199 Million (right there with the others)
6. Astros – $197.8 Million (I guess they should have spent more)
Next were the Mets, Phillies, and Angels. Each of those teams are sitting on Boat-Anchor Contracts.
Plus, the Red Sox had to pay $12.6 Million in Tax, The cubs had to pay $6.8 Million in LT, and the Yankees had to pay $5.6 Millin in LX so that they could watch the World Series on TV, just like US!
The last time that the team with the highest payroll won the Series was 2018.
The teams with the best records in MLB were the Astros (#6), Dodgers (#5) and Yankees (#3). There is obviously some correlation between paying good players high salaries and winning. And of course the #4 team won it all.
Exactly… and what about the time before that?
The most important point is:
“The teams with the best records in MLB were the Astros (#6), Dodgers (#5) and Yankees (#3). There is obviously some correlation between paying good players high salaries and winning. And of course the #4 team won it all.”
You can’t possibly contest that there is some relationship between payroll and winning. You don’t have to have the top payroll but do have to pay good players good money to win most of the time (but not always).
You can’t be a cheap scape and win… but being #1 in spending is a guarantee of nothing.
Nobody is forgetting Urias, but he is not a co- Ace right now. Maybe he will someday, but maybe he won’t. Let’s see him pitch 100 innings before we anoint him co-Ace. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg have been at that level and figure to be there at least another several years. Probably not the length of the contract, but they never do. You seem to imply that the Dodgers cannot afford Cole or Strasburg. They have a projected $45MM to spend before the threshold that you continue to ignore or simply believe they should not spend it.
Would the Dodgers be better with Cole or Strasburg? To quote you, even Ray Charles can see that they would be. Can the Dodgers afford Cole or Strasburg? Unless there is some financial reason that they cannot even approach the CBT threshold, the contract should not be a factor. But if they want to continue to sign middle of the road players like Pollock and Kelly they can spend the money and not improve.
Current Dodger Contracts – 6 players – $86.458MM
Kershaw – $31MM
JT – $16MM
KJ – $16MM
AJ Pollock – $12MM
Joe Kelly – $8.333MM
Kenta – $3.125MM
Arbitration – 12 players – Projected $53MM
Pedro Baez – $3.3MM
Kike’ – $5.5MM
Joc = $8.5MM
Yimi Garcia – $1.1MM
CT3 – $5.0MM
Corey Seager – $7.1MM
Ross Stripling – $2.3MM
Austin Barnes – $1.3MM
Scott Alexander – $1.0MM
Max Muncy – $4.6MM
Belli – $11.6MM
Julio Urias – $1.7MM
Balance of Roster – 8 players – Estimated at $6.0MM – Players considered in this role include o of the following:
Walker Buehler
Alex Verdugo
Will Smith
Matt Beaty
Dustin May
Tony Gonsolin
Gavin Lux
Dylan Floro
Casey Sadler
Adam Kolarek
Estimated Player Benefits – $15.0MM
40 Man Player/Minors – $2.25MM
The total of the above is $162.708MM.
I suppose the ownership group can delude themselves that this team is a WS contender and spread the $40MM amongst themselves as bonuses for getting to the playoffs again, or they can go bold and sign a top tier elite co-Ace, starting pitcher to match with Walker Buehler. Molly Knight is right.
I am not sure where your Dodger Luxury Tax Payroll comes from, but Cots has it at $209.8MM, or $3.8MM over. Kershaw and Maeda bonuses took them over the top. Cots may be wrong, but they are usually spot on for those teams that exceed the luxury tax, which they are reporting the Dodgers did in 2019.
Here’s the coolest LT Calculator I have found:
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/2019/
Spotrac did not include Kershaw’s or Maeda’s bonuses. Kershaw got $3MM for 28 starts and Maeda got either $4.75MM or $5.25MM (whatever source you want to consider). Those two bonuses take them over the CBT threshold. Those bonuses are highlighted on the individual player page, but not in the totals. I like Spotrac for individual contract terms, but Cots for team salaries for AAV. It does not matter who either of us like, MLB will make the correct calculation and we will learn soon enough if they exceeded the limit or not.
So, the morons had to pay the tax and still lost?
good players makes a good manager
Everyone seems to think Doc does a horrendous job of bullpen management. The new “3 out” rule will cut down on the number of decisions he can make so that will help. Maybe Prior will have his ear better than Honey did and be a stronger influence on in game pitching moves. That will help.
Can anyone tell me what the story is with the health of Wheeler’s arm or, for that matter, his health in general?Someone posted a link a couple of days ago comparing Wheeler 2019 with Cole 2017 (the year before he was traded to Houston). The similarities were amazing. If we sign Wheeler (assuming he’s healthy) and make similar changes to his pitch selection, he might be the best possible starter signing we could make (Results vs. Cost).
Wheeler had to get a shot in his stomach every day for six months. They give it to people with brittle bones, osteoporosis.
Scary stuff!
Come on. That was two years ago, and he started 29 games in 2018, and 31 games in 2019. He also got himself in better shape with better nutrition as workout regime. Urias had major shoulder surgery and you do not see a potential problem with him? You have no idea how that shoulder will hold up once he reaches 100-120 IP. Did the Dodgers baby him in 2019 or do they know something?
Zach Wheeler is a question just like Urias or May or Gonsolin or Kershaw’s back. Every pitcher is a gamble. If you want to play it safe, never sign a pitcher for more than one year.
I would rather do Wheeler, but he scares me too.
You have to look at the medical part, but allegedly Urias had no structural damage to his shoulder. It was much less invasive than what Ryu had.
I like it. The Dodgers bullpen improves because Doc has less decision opportunities to blow.
When life gives you lemons………………………………………………..
(not saying Doc is a lemon as manager, just saying you have to look at the bright side) 🙂
10 players received qualifying offers. They are:
Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants
Gerrit Cole, SP, Astros
Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves
Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins
Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals
Will Smith, RP, Giants
Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets
JD Martinez didn’t exercise his opt out. He has another one next year.
Aroldis Chapman did an extension so didn’t opt out either.
I’m liking today’s back n forth banter… Heck it’s only money as T. Boone Pickens would say… I have installed a seat on my computer chairbecuz every day for the next month or so I’ll need it when I open my LADT and see what happened!!!
One thing I always laugh about, is that the Dodger’s Ownership will lose their fan base!!! Give me a break…
We’ll see lines of picketers on Stadium Way and they’ll close huge portions of the stadium on weeknights… Management staffing may have to multitask and grill Dodger dogs…
Welcome to the Hotel California!!!
P.S. Wheeler seems a good bet and I’m still digging what’s his name at 3rd!?!? It was right on the tip of my tongue!!! Old age is a bitch…
Stay strong on Mas Tortillas Urias, he will be everything MT says and more (I’m serious)…
Mark, I think you should invite Andrew Friedman to write an essay here, explaining the terror in his heart when it comes to trading for or signing good relief pitchers.
So many of us were screaming that he should trade for Vazquez last July and he obviously tried very hard to do so. I wonder how many games Felipe will save from jail next year.
Someone pointed out on Twitter today that the Cubs declined Morrow’s 12 mil option.
Totals for his Cubs career (after we stupidly let him leave): 21 mil earned, 30.2 innings pitched. That works out to about $695,000 per inning. This GM stuff ain’t easy.
Here’s the long and the short of it:
Why pay like you know, when you don’t?
… especially, when you have a 70% chance of failure from Jump Street.
There is obviously no guarantee that any FA fair priced or over priced will get a team over the hump. But if you are afraid of making a mistake after doing your due diligence you should not be making player personnel decisions. Signing Cole or Strasburg or Rendon will not financially strap the Dodgers, but it will give them a better chance to win. I think they need pitching more than the 3B, but I will let AF make that decision. IMO, this is not the year to go cheap. Be bold and take a chance at getting better than status quo.
Losing a 2nd round pick when you are at #29 in the selection process is not going to hurt the team either.
Somebody criticized a .245 average hitter. The difference between a .300 hitter and a .245 hitter is that in 100 at bats a .300 hitter makes out 70 times and a .245 hitter makes out 75 times. And if the .245 hitter has more walks and hit by pitches than the .300 hitter those 5 extra outs shrink.