Stay the Course!

This article has 40 Comments

1. I would include another bullet point – addition by subtraction. Upgrade the roster by replacing AJ Pollock, Tyler White, Kristopher Negrón, JT Chargois, and Yimi Garcia. Ditto Scott Alexander if he is not healthy.

   1. Good morning. I think you may have forgotten Gyorko?

      1. I am assuming Gyorko’s $13MM 2020 option will be bought out by Dodgers and become a free agent. It is possible that he and Dodgers will work out an extension, but I think that is a long shot

2. I think Yimi Garcia could be one of the best relievers on the team next year.

   Alexander should be healthy and is very useful.

   No takers for Pollock.

   The others will likely be released.

3. You could be right about Garcia, he has a terrific arm, but Dodgers did not trust him enough to make the NLDS roster. His 3.61 ERA last season is offset by 15 home runs, only 4 holds in 64 games, 3 blown saves in 3 opportunities, and a 5.19 FIP. In 89 games with the Dodgers his WAR is approximately negative 1. I believe the Dodgers can do better. I hope Alexander is healthy, but left forearm soreness, and numbness in left thumb is very concerning. I agree, it will be tough to move Pollock; the Dodgers may have to take back another poor contract, or pay some of the remaining $, or include another valuable player / prospect.

4. Mark, I’ve always wondered why you were so high on Verdugo. You seem to single him out and imply that he will be the star of this team, at some point. The NL Batting title? Better than Rendon, Arenado, or even the likes of Bellinger?I like Verdugo. I always have liked him and his energy, the way he hustles, the way he shakes when he gets on base and cheers on his teammates. I hope he is as successful as you make him out to be, but that is a very tall order. Whatever happens, he will certainly be welcomed back by me.

   I would like to feel that way about Pollock and Joc, too. In a very real sense, they both stand in Verdugo’s way of showing how good he could be by taking playing time away from him in certain situations. Will we ever see what anyone else could do in LF, like Beaty, if he were given a chance? Joc is like half a player, yet he effects the lineup in a major way, both his HR’s and his poor overall hitting. I’ve never seen a leadoff batter like him. He doesn’t give me a secure feeling. And, Pollock, I just can’t figure out. There is nothing outstanding about him, yet the Dodgers are committed to playing him. He kind of reminds me of Maeda, in a sense, not too good, not too bad. But, Maeda is not an expensive hire and is not standing in anyone else’s way.

   It seems Lux has the goods to contribute to this team. He looked solid defensively and he can hit. It can’t have been easy for him to be thrown into the lion’s den with all of the high expectations and hopes that surrounded him. Hopefully, he will adjust to being an everyday player and acquiring the experience and knowledge that all good players must have. Baseball IQ is an intangible that every great player has. They instinctively learn and know what to do. It’s hard for me to picture Muncy as our 2B, full time. I like Muncy and his grinding presence and his clutch hitting. His HR’s are exciting, but he is only on the team because of his HR’s. For me, he is a better DH, and a utility guy in a pinch. But how many utility guys do we need? I wonder how Lux would do given the chance to be a full time player? Does he have greatness stamped in his DNA? It certainly looked that way when he was in the minors.

   1. I think you are underestimating Muncy’s defense. Baseball Reference stats indicate that he is overall a better than average defender at second base, and third base. And, his first base defense has improved significantly since going the Dodgers. In fact, I will not be surprised to see Muncy as the regular third baseman this season.

      1. MLB’s Top Ten 2B:
         José Altuve
         Jed Lowrie
         Whit Merrifield
         Robinson Canó
         Chris Taylor
         Scooter Gennett
         Joey Wendle
         Gleyber Torres
         Ben Zobrist
         DJ LeMahieu

         I was surprised to see CT3 in this list as he’s only played 20 games at 2B but no errors. I don’t think Muncy is bad. If you can find any list of Top 2Bmen with Muncy on it, I’d like to see it. I believe Muncy has been at his worst at 3B. Correct me if I’m wrong.

         1. Did you make up that list?

            1. mlb.com, Bluto.

            2. Link please.

               No way that is a current list.

               Here is a much much better one:

               https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=#reports

         2. That list is obviously very old – Lowrie, Gennett, Wendle, and Zobrist not even close to making top 10 in 2019. Based on Fangraphs WAR: Marte, LeMahieu, Muncy, Albies, Villar, Wong, Torres, Altuve, Edmann, Merrifield. wRC+: Marte, LeMahieu, Albies, Merrifield, Muncy, Villar, Torres, Altuve, Moustakas, Hernandez (Carlos)

         3. Taylor being on this list will increase his trade value.

            1. Are you and Jeff on drugs?

5. Mark, you keep talking about the young guys and the prospects yet to arrive.
   The World Champ Washington Nationals were the oldest team in baseball last year.
   The solution is simple:
   1) Sign JT to a 7 year extension
   2) Re-sign Hill to a 5 year contract
   3) Bring back Ryu on an 8 year contract
   4) Add a few years to Pollock’s contract
   5) Bring back Russel Martin on a 5 year contract
   6) Sign Bartolo Colon as our #1 starter
   7) Trade Bellinger, Lux, Buehler and Verdugo for Ichiro, Rodney, Pujols and Granderson

6. I agree Mark, staying the course probably makes the most sense, with a tweak or two, of course. But will the Dodgers do that? That seems uncertain at this point. There is obviously something missing.

   Okay, toss the Nats out of the equation. They got hot, really hot. Yes, the Dodgers had the game won, until they didn’t. They struck out way too many times with runners in scoring position, the hero mentality. They attempted to reverse engineer the bullpen, leaving Kenley Jansen out of the mix. They simply didn’t trust him. Clayton Kershaw failed to get three outs and the Dodgers spun off the rails. The plan went up in smoke.

   The year before against Boston, the Dodgers faced a superior team. End of story.

   In 2017, Jansen blows the save in the ninth and a chance for the Dodgers to take a 2-0 Series lead and Kershaw fails to hold two leads, again, up in smoke. Should have won, didn’t.

   Something is definitely missing. You could also look back at previous Nat failures and say the same thing. Maybe Corbin was the missing piece. Or maybe it was the rise of Soto.

   It’s obvious everybody was disappointed, including Andrew Friedman. So everything is on the table, including a free agent signing. But Friedman won’t do something for the sake of doing something, but reading between the lines is pretty easy. There will be some changes.

   The most disturbing thing you wrote Mark is about the potential for labor unrest. If that does occur, the game will take a hell of a hit.

   1. I don’t believe there will be “labor unrest.” MLB and Players Association are already making progress on some issues, and both sides are way too smart to jeopardize a fan revolt that could last for years.

      1. There was a lot of bickering last year. Jake Arrieta got a 3 Year/$75 Million deal the Phillies would love to have back. MLB is not going be handing out $300 million deals and Borass Clients will not get what they want. The union is going to cry collusion and the MLBPA will threaten to burn it all down.

         1. there will no doubt be a lot of saber rattling up to the 11th hour, but both sides are too smart to take a strike or work stoppage

            1. but both sides (are) ‘should be’ too smart to take a strike or work stoppage

               Fixed it for you – couldn’t figure out how to do strike through letters as a comment but you get the gist of it

            2. thanks Grinch, but I will stick with “too smart”

            3. I’ve see lots of smart people do stupid things over money and ego; I hope you are right

7. If Max Muncy could work all Spring at 3B and stay there, I think he would be a very good 3B… not great, but very good. Then JT could move to 1B, where he might be great! Seager stays at SS and Gavin Lux goes to 2B. CT3 and Beaty are the IF backups.

   I want Nick Castellanos very badly for LF. Bellinger plays CF and Verdugo plays RF. Pollock is the backup.

   OK, I’ll throw out an idea: Trade Pederson, Stripling, Kike, Carrillo, and Peters for Edwin Diaz and hope that Honeycutt and Prior can “fix” him. It has to be an overpay and NY would actually get better.

   1. I agree on the infield. And, I really like Castellanos, but his production will not offset the loss of a Pederson / Hernandez / Taylor / Pollock platoon. You are sending way too much to the Mets for Diaz, and Mets do not need another LH hitting OF’er.

8. Who will be the next veteran on the bench? Utley is gone, Freese is gone, I have an idea of someone who has a lot of experience and very successful in the playoffs: Kung Fu Panda. And I don’t care if he can play defense, he is the kind of veteran who can help WIN FINALLY !!

9. I defy anyone to find a starting staff from the last 4 World Series that didn’t come with some significant, high dollar pitching contracts,

   Even on the losing teams like the Astros or Dodgers.

   Spending on starting pitching does seem to work, yet the “there’s too much risk!” movement persists.

   You have to go back to Royals/Mets World Series match-up to find one that didn’t feature high $$$$ free agent/extended arms and look where both teams have gone since.

   1. Justin Verlander WS record: W – 0; L – 6; ERA 5.68; AAV – $33MM

      1. Not relevant to the point I am making, but thanks?

         1. Apparently misunderstood your comment “Spending on starting pitching does seem to work, yet the “there’s too much risk!” movement persists.”

            1. Yes. Correct.

10. I have a lot of faith in the Dodgers offense. The Dodgers have a lot of young position players that need to mature and when they do, will produce in the post season. Trust me.

    Smith 24 years old and a rookie.
    Lux 21 and a rookie.
    Verdugo 23 and a rookie.
    Even Bellinger 24 years old.

    The only thing I would do to the offense is sign Castellanos only if he agrees to be Joc’s platoon partner this year with the possibility of more playing time in the infield in 2021, make Pollock a pinch hitter and trade Hernandez for a box of chocolates.

    THAT’S IT!

    DJ Peters (Future OF) and Keibert Ruiz (Future back up catcher) I believe are on their way to the Dodgers soon.

    Pitching is another story. I’d improve both the starting pitching and the bullpen. I’ve already posted details, so I won’t do it again.

    A big concern that I have is Doc as the manager.

    1. Castellanos will not platoon with anyone

11. Since many here do not want to make any significant change, I am assuming that you also believe that teams like the Braves and Cardinals and Brewers will also go with the status quo. What if the Nats re-sign both Strasburg and Rendon. They certainly have the financial ability to sign both. They are both Boras clients, and Boras loves the Lerner’s. If you are not moving forward, you are falling behind.

    I have seen multiple articles where the Braves will be pursuing hard for Yasmani Grandal, Madison Bumgarner, and Aroldys Chapman. I do not know about Chapman so much, but Grandal and Bumgarner make total sense. They are both from the South, and play a position of need for the Braves. With all of the young pitching the Braves have, they could sure use a Madison Bumgarner to lead them. The Braves lose Donaldson, but they love Austin Riley and they still have Johan Comargo. Another international gem, Christian Pasche, is just about ready to join Albies and Acuna. The Braves have more than enough salary space to make those FA signings. Signing Grandal and MadBum do not cost the current team anyone.

    The Dodgers have $45MM to spend. Do those wanting to remain status quo really believe the Dodgers are going to sit on that $45MM, or are you satisfied that signing an older Dick Mountain and Hyun-jin Ryu will fill out the team. Because we all know that Julio Urias, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin are going to ALL be stalwarts in the rotation. None of them will pitch 150 innings next year, and then what will they have left for the playoffs. No, it absolutely makes no sense whatsoever to go out and find a legit co-Ace or at the least a legit #2.

    Just because Boras is going to ask for $300MM for Cole does not mean anyone is that stupid to pay him that much. Not even someone as stupid as AJ Preller. Why shouldn’t AF come out strong early next week with an offer of $220MM for 6 years, and if he declines, you move on. The $220MM is greater than Price’s $217MM and the AAV of $36.667MM is better than Verlander or Greinke. Give him a mutual option for a 7th year with an opt out after 4 years.

    If you do not get a legit co-Ace or #2, then you better go the route of NYY and get an offense that will score runs. The team needs a RH bat, and I do not believe that Nicholas Castellanos will be a Dodger next year. Every baseball journalist/magazine that puts out top FA lists has Castellanos going back to the AL where he belongs. As good as he hit for Chicago, he still only racked up a 2.7 WAR, because of his defense. DRS in 2019 was -9, and -19 in 2018. His UZR in 2019 was -5 and -12 in 2018. His arm was -7.4 in 2018 and -2.1 in 2018. The Dodgers may know how to position players, but you have to be able to read the ball off the bat, and Castellanos’ range indicates that he does not do that well. I have mostly read that he will end up in Boston if JDM decides to opt out. Most think he will, and most believe he will sign with the ChiSox.

    Most have Rendon targeted to Texas where he will be the poster child for that new ballpark. Donaldson is not going to sign another 1 year deal, and that is it for RHH FA.

    So, Mark you may get your wish. The Dodgers will do nothing except look for that next Brandon Morrow, Max Muncy, and CT3.
    1B – Muncy
    2B – Lux
    SS – Seager
    3B – JT
    LF – Pollock/Joc
    CF – Belli
    RF – Verdugo
    C – Smith
    Bench – Kike’, CT3, Beaty, backup catcher.
    SP – Buehler/Kershaw/Urias/May/Maeda
    Pen – Jansen/Kelly/Baez/Stripling/Ferguson/Garcia/Gonsolin/Victor Gonzalez

    Good enough to win the West (maybe), but it has not been good enough to win the WS. In fact this year not good enough to get out of the NLDS. So we fans have to hope for good luck, and someone kidnapping Doc for the playoffs. All the while the AAV sits at $163MM because nobody wants to spend the dollars for a true difference maker. No dope-fiend contracts. But hey, they will be under the CBT, so no luxury tax. MT will be happy because LAD will contend and probably make the playoffs. They will stay relevant. If they do not win the WS, try again in 2021 with the same team. It is bound to be the right formula one year, right?

    1. Always Compete

       I’d use whatever resources the Dodgers have, money and the right prospects to upgrade the pitching staff both starters and relievers.

       I don’t think the Dodgers need a right handed hitter, that is overblown to me. And I don’t think the Dodgers should add anyone to the offense other than an upgrade over Hernandez.

       You said “If you do not get a legit co-Ace or #2, then you better go the route of NYY and get an offense that will score runs.”

       Or get a bullpen that is lock down that you can trust after the starter is taken out.

       Are we (not just you alone) really talking about defense? How did the no offense but so called great defense of Izturis, Cora, Roberts plus the pitchers spot in the lineup work out ? .

    2. I very much agree with your comments, AC.

       I will also note that the very early “futures” odds simply reflect general betting sentiment. The Dodgers always have a lot of money bet on them. Also, some may be very optimistically assuming that they will do something major in the offseason. Let us very much hope that they are right. Because if we do not, I would not bet on the Dodgers to win the title at 10-1. The Nationals indeed will be better if they do not lose anyone. The Braves are the franchise which could be on the verge of being the best in the league for a few years. St. Louis made a leap upwards this season. The Yankees will almost certainly improve via an FA pickup, or a trade of some of their surplus bats. We don’t know about Houston, but they are not just going to let Cole go without signing another high-end pitcher. I thought the Yankees would be the best team in baseball this year, and I was a bit wrong, but not much. I think they will be next year.

       There are other teams, of course, which could step up. But I don’t see why the Dodgers would be very likely to win it all, with a roster which currently lacks a #2 starter, a closer, a setup man, a proven catcher, an everyday third baseman, a reliable righthanded bat other than the unfortunately injury prone third baseman. We could go into next season with only one proven starter, Buehler, plus a declining Kershaw, and everyone else unproven. And not one proven reliever, either. This is the time for major measures, not the usual sitting back and figuring that we have a heads up on our division, so we can worry about things by playoff time. And again, I will wonder whether Roberts may have lost the confidence of some of his players, through his blatant mistakes in the playoffs this year. And there will be a few players who might be looking to get out, including Seager and Pederson. Ironically, for a franchise which has been fixed on cutting payroll, the overlong contracts given to favorites Kershaw and Jansen are a significant problem, compounded by the mistake signings of Pollock and Kelly. I would rather have had seven years of a $25 million star, than the contracts given to those two. And I would have said that before we signed them–unless we were willing to do other things as well, but we were not.

    3. That’s a really good team, AC. But will be much better with a strong arm added.

       In the past you have mentioned Kluber. Is that just surmising, or had it been reported by credible sources?

       1. Bluto, when it comes to the Dodgers and AF, there are no credible sources. I know he was discussed by the journalists last year that the Dodgers were really looking into Kluber. But nothing came if it.

    4. I’d say that lineup was better than the Nationals.

       That’s the rub…

12. According to Ken Gurnick, both Scott Alexander and Yimi Garcia are non-tender candidates. Really? They are going to be our new co-relief aces?

    1. Gurnick is NEVER wrong!

       I could do Gurnick’s job if I was happy with 20% of what I am making.

       I’ll stop there…

Comments are closed.