The Grass is Always Greener…

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1. While watching last nights game, I kept thinking how the Astros couldn’t get a crucial hit with runners on base and questionable bullpen management. If the Astros were wearing Dodger uniforms we’d all be complaining about Roberts and how our MVP candidate didn’t deliver. But this wasn’t the Dodgers it was the Astros. Like you said, ultimately the players need to execute.

2. The early odds for next year’s WS is in. The favorite is Houston, once again, and Washington right behind them. Not the Dodgers, though. I am of the opinion that it is the pitching that is questionable regarding their chances at the WS. Just looking at what Mark wrote above about how he sees the pitching staff shaping up for next season gives me serious concern that it is a bit of a confused mess. They can’t decide who is a starter and who is in the bullpen. And, those that are in the bullpen, when and where do they pitch? This has been an ongoing problem all of this past season. With injuries and prospects being called up prematurely and undue pressure put on the young guns, I see confusion as their main enemy. No longer is there a clear path for a starter to be a starter because they just don’t have that many reliable starters on the team!

   We started off with Kershaw and Hill hurt. Kershaw bounced back and played continuously after that. Hill did not. Now we are faced with 3 possible starters who will have limits placed upon them, Urias, May, & Gonsolin. I am assuming Ryu and Hill are gone. If Hill is not gone, he should be, as the likelihood of a repeat injury is very high putting pressure on the others. We just don’t know how the 3 young guns will fare. How can you go into a season like this with serious unanswered questions. My only hope is that they do go out and sign 1 or possible 2 SP. They don’t have to be top tier, but they have to be good, or reliable enough to get through at least 1 season while the young guns build stamina and gather experience. Even if we went out and got that RH bat that Mark covets so much, our pitching staff is vulnerable and I haven’t even mentioned the problems in the BP.

   Let’s see how our FO will handle all this. Fix the pitching FIRST!

   1. “The early odds for next year’s WS is in. The favorite is Houston, once again, and Washington right behind them. Not the Dodgers, though.”…. Um totally false statement. Astros are 5/1, Dodgers are second at 6/1 and Nationals are 6th at 14/1.

      https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-world-series-odds-2020-astros-dodgers-yankees-early-favorites-heading-into-offseason/

      1. I’m only reporting what I’ve read, obviously not the article you quote.

         1. I think you read in the 800’s that end in 3 of the Dewey Decimal System.

   2. Yes, that pitching staff needs to be much better than #1 in all of baseball, like they were in 2019.

      They need a better ERA – #1 is not good enough.

      They need a better WHIP – #1 is not good enough.

      Jeff, you are a comedian.

      1. It will probably be a different pitching staff minus Ryu and Hill. All bets are off without their #1, Ryu. Plus, 3 rookies vying for a starting position? No way. You are living in the past, Mark and relying once again on stats, stats from the past. The reality is a different starting rotation and a new BP with different roles from the relievers, if they are smart.

3. A lot to unwrap here.

   Casty is a good bat. Possibly a very good bat. I agree with Mark’s proposition that you should acquire a guy before they’re “the guy”. This is a good possibility, but I don’t think he’ll ever be a good outfielder. But, there’s nothing wrong with having a less than optimal defensive left fielder if the bat justifies it. I wouldn’t mind signing him with the understanding that he would need to break in a first baseman’s glove.

   I like the young pitchers, but I wouldn’t want to have to rely on them throughout the season and into the post season. I would like an upgrade to the staff. AC’s favorite Kluber would be a nice trade target. His value has never been lower, and he probably has another good year or two, or three left in him. And he’s under team control for that long.

   I have no problem trading a guy like Santana in a package for a reliever, or try to add a guy like Will Smith via free agency. He won’t be cheap when the options for relievers are much thinner than last year’s crop.

   1. Kluber’s team option was picked up today. Looks like he’s going nowhere.

4. Congrats to the Nationals for a tremendous playoff run and WS victory. They executed and the Astros failed to.
   A J Hinch went all Dave Roberts at the end of game seven. How does that happen? It was just the Nats time.

   As far as signing Cole I was all in at the most 6yrs/$210. For anything more than that no thank you. I can see the Angels paying whatever with their history of failed dope fiend moves. We’re going to have to make due with the young pitchers we have and hope they progress in 2020.

   I don’t agree with Mark’s assessment of Urias. I have never been blown away with his pitching. Very good, yes. Striker Beuhler? Not even close. Add to that the Dodgers have had an awkward plan with how they have handled Urias in the past and especially in 2019. I’m curious how he does going from 80 innings this year to 150+ innings in 2020. One thing he needs to do is lose some weight. He’s on his way to Bartolo Colon territory. I hope I’m wrong because he definitely has the talent.
   I say no to Rich Hill. I love Rich Hill, but he is just too undependable at this point in his career to take up a roster spot. And, with Ryu it would be one year at a time with a contract. With his injury history and age I just can’t see giving him a two year contract let alone a four year deal. We have just spent too much money in the past for injury prone pitchers and have been burned. And, with the pitching talent we having coming up let’s role the dice and give them the opportunity to succeed with the Dodgers.
   Mark, I do agree with you on players that could/should be traded. And, agree with you on trading them for prospects like they did with the Reds last year. The Dodgers fleeced the Reds and they should continue with the same approach with the players you mentioned.
   It should be an eventful off season and give us a lot to talk about.

5. I don’t see us re-signing Ryu and if we bring back Hill I think it will be as a bullpen piece and spot starter, maybe as a replacement for Strip, whom I expect to see traded.
   I really can’t see AF starting the season with all those young guys in the rotation and I expect to see a new face although I don’t expect it to be Cole. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him pick up a #2 or #3 starter in a trade that could include pieces like Joc, Kike, Stripling, Downs, Peters, White, Santana and if the guy is really good, maybe even Ruiz. I still think something could be worked out for Kluber (but I wouldn’t include Ruiz in that trade).

   1. I think you and I are the only two on this site (maybe all sites) that want Corey Kluber. I have brought him up for the last two years, and AF refuses to listen to me.

      1. AC, I’ve mentioned Kluber in one of my recent posts in the last couple of days. In fact, it was to you that I responded. I guess you don’t read my posts. If they are interested in Lindor, they can try to get Kluber, too. Both of them have been allstars.

         1. Trust me Jeff… AC ain’t the only who passes up your comments!!!

            1. You are certainly reading them. And, why would I trust you?

         2. I did not intend to exclude anyone. There are undoubtedly other Kluber fans, but other than Singing The Blue and me, I do not remember anyone as obnoxious about making that trade than we have been.

            1. Not that it matters, and I haven’t been obnoxious about it, but I have commented that I would be in favor of taking a flyer on Kluber.

            2. Okay, I stand corrected. There are others that would be agreeable to Kluber wearing Dodger Blue next year. But I still can’t get AF to take my call.

6. You said “The conventional wisdom demands that Andrew Friedman not look at the waiver wire or the bone pile. The conventional wisdom says he has to sign free agents and make trades to improve the team.” Gee, I wonder why? Because the team has not had that STAR get them across the finish line? That STAR is not on the waiver wire or in their system. I will use a Jeff line. The farm system is full of good players, but not great players. I would find it hard to believe if anyone follows the Dodgers (and other teams) minor league players more than I do. Maybe some as much as, but not more than. IMO, there is not a single position player who you can say is a can’t miss or might be a perennial AS. The closest is Lux. MT puts Ruiz in that category, and I can only hope that he is. He puts bat on the ball, but for those who cannot stand Corey Seager’s aggressive approach, you will really hate Keibert’s. How long before he learns plate discipline? MLB pitchers will eat that up. DJ Peters? Jeter Downs? The next two on the Dodgers top prospect list are Kody Hoese and Michael Busch, two players who were drafted last year. 2022 is the earliest they can realistically be considered for the 25 man…earliest. Diego Cartaya? Maybe 2023. So if that STAR is not yet uncovered in their system, you have to look elsewhere.

   I do not know what the recipe for a World Series Champion is. If I did, I would be making $7MM per year. As a starter, my best guess is that you need two lock down starting pitchers, and then a third who gets hot at the right time. The Nats got two very well pitched games from Scherzer, and two superbly pitched games from Strasburg. The Dodgers can count on Walker Buehler and ………….? You can say that Urias or May or Kershaw or Gonsolin or Gray will be that pitcher, but none of them have ever done it (HOF #22 has not done it consistently in the post season). Outside of Kershaw, there is not one pitcher in their system that can be counted on to pitch 150+ innings. I would include Maeda, but it serves the Dodgers best if he moves to the bullpen. Will he? AF says no right now, but we are still in October, nowhere near pitchers and catchers reporting date. But if he is still a Dodger next ST, he will be in the rotation. For anyone to ignore that is silly.

   I would not pay Gerrit Cole $300MM and nobody else will either. Boras can ask for whatever he wants, but he has not been getting it except when he snookered AJ Preller into Eric Hosmer. He started Harper at $400MM; JDM at $200MM. Neither got it. He failed to deliver for Mike Moustakas and Dallas Keuchel. Teams, sans Preller, are not buying into his BS. The biggest problem I see to signing Cole is not necessarily the money, but how long it will take for him to sign. It is believed that what Cole wants is to beat David Price’s overall guarantee of $217MM and to beat Justin Verlander $33MM AAV. 7 years $235MM will do that. Yes, me the moron, would pay that. The Dodgers have the roster and financial room, and they have a need. But if Boras wants $300MM, look for a late February or March signing at the earliest, and the Dodgers with other plans. The number of interested teams that will still be in on Cole in February and March will be greatly diminished, and he will be lucky to get $235MM. I do not know what Strasburg will be asking, but if he is not in Washington next year, he will be in San Diego. Yes, my conjecture.

   Jo Jo Gray? I do like him a lot. Maybe he can be a Jose Urquidy next year, but again, you want to rely on that?

   The second component is that a team needs a clutch hitter (or two or three). The Nats got clutch hits from Eaton, Rendon, Soto, Kendrick, Cabrera. Dodgers? Max and who? Kike’? Joc? JT? Certainly not Belli or Corey.

   I will throw your DJLM line out for Nicholas Castellanos. He is perfect for Wrigley. There is nothing that says he can duplicate that in Dodger Stadium. You make that argument for DJLM but not Castellanos?

   Lockdown reliever? Yes, they are fickle, but if you are waiting for that lockdown reliever to come from Carrillo, Santana, Grove, or White, you will probably be waiting a long time. Carrillo may throw 100MPH, but if that is the ticket, then Stetson Allie would have been on the roster. For the most part, Carrillo’s fastball is not fully developed. Not a lot of movement. And nowhere near the command he needs. He is not making the 2020 roster. He needs to move full-time into the pen and develop that #1 to where he can paint.

   White? He has been bad the last two years. Not so-so, but bad. Maybe he moves to the bullpen in 2020. Maybe he rediscovers that spin and command he displayed early on. Maybe. Maybe not. So hold on to him and put him in the bullpen, but do not expect him to be a factor in 2020. He is a strikeout pitcher, and maybe looking at 1.0 inning per game will be best for him.

   Michael Grove will be two years removed from TJ surgery and accumulated 51.2 IP last year, with a 6.10 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP all at Rancho in A+ Ball. And he is ready to make the 25 man? Dennis Santana had a horrible year in 2019. In 93.1 IP at OKC he had a 6.94 ERA and a 1.757 WHIP. Maybe he turns it around, but do you want to count on it when you need a quality bullpen? Everyone except MT and AF believe the Dodgers bullpen was a problem last year. You can continue to be an ostrich, but I choose to continue to look for that non-fickle reliever.

   Ken Giles or Aaron Bummer or Jose Leclerc, or Michael Lorenzen, or Keone Kela, or Jose Diaz, or Seth Lugo, or…? No guarantee any of them will be lockdown, but there is a better chance for any of them before Santana, White, Grove or Carrillo will be lockdown relievers for LAD in 2020. Since the beginning of 2019, my favorite reliever in the farm is Brett de Geus. He is close, but not really closer than 2021. I am worried that teams will learn about Marshall Kasowski’s one pitch and tee off on him. But he will get a chance.

   Yes, it is player execution that makes champions. But for the last three years, the Dodgers roster does not include the right players that will execute. Don’t take my word for it. Look at the last three years. They have gone backwards in those three years. DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT. CHANGE IT UP. Or will the Dodgers waste the best years of Walker Buehler like they seemingly have done with Kershaw? Yes, even though Kershaw is primarily to blame, but not wholly. Get the player that will help #22 get that ring.

   1. Great post AC. Great point regarding player execution. It’s the manager’s roll to put your best available guys in the best position to be successful. Than it’s up to them to execute. But they need to be capable of succeeding in that spot. You can put Elmer Fudd out there and if he isn’t capable of executing what’s necessary it isn’t going to happen. You setting the player up for failure.

7. Looks like AJ has his own 7th inning nightmare to think about all offseason like Roberts. Being a manager is either being a genius one game and a straight dumbass the next, all because your pitchers can make or break you. It’s a creul mistress, this game of baseball. A cruel mistress….

8. The Washington Nationals, the epitome of junkyard dogs, might go down as the all time greatest junkyard dogism of all time.

   Since about 1990 as far as I can remember, I have bled blue. From the Washington DC area, it was nice when the Nationals franchise started, to see the fan base rejuvenated. I always felt larger because I was a Dodgers fan, playoffs year by year, World Series appearances, the Nats weren’t on our level. Every playoff series, every World Series appearance, means nothing . Ask the Nationals fans if they care about any season in the past now, they are the Champs, they own the league, something I have never seen the Dodgers do in my lifetime. Maybe it is easier for the Dodger fans that witnessed a World Series Championship, but for the ones who have not or do not remember, it is hard to have consistent, positive thoughts about a “competitive” team that consistently chokes at the finish line.

9. I agree with AC that something needs to change with the Dodgers. As far as pitching goes I think it’s Cole at 6yr/$210 or pass. Any other free agent pitchers available would probably not be an improvement to what we already have. It will be interesting to see what happens with Strasberg.

   With our offense I agree with the pursuit of Castellanos. We need to balance out the lineup. He has improved his defense and with the proper position placement which the Dodgers seem good at will help his defense even further. I would try and move Pollack if we can sign Castellanos. If we cannot move Pollack, unfortunately, he becomes a bench player.
   A big improvement will take place if they stop trying to our bench players extended playing time to keep them sharp and to keep the starters fresh. How’s that worked out? I keep harping on this but starters are starters for a reason and the bench players are bench players for a reason. Many think it’s awesome to have a such a deep team, but in the end it really doesn’t make any difference in the playoffs. If you look at the Astros and Nats lineups they were nearly the same every game.
   But, the biggest improvement necessary has to come from Bellinger and Seager. Cody has to cut down his swing against top of the line pitchers and learn to use more of the field. He does occasionally, but needs to be more consistent. He’s going to hit plenty of HRs and drive in 100+. Why he feels he needs to swing out of his shoes on every swing is beyond me. He has so much talent and has the desire to improve it just confuses me why he approaches hitting the way he does. Against good to mediocre pitching he is an all star. With premium pitching with the same approach he is not very good and that is why he has been an absolute failure in the post season.
   With Seager I think he’s going to have a monster 2020. He’ll have the off season to work on his approach and swing as opposed to having to rehab his body. He needs to work on his pitch recognition. He seems to have his mind made up to swing before the pitch is thrown. He hits well swinging at the first pitch, but it seems that the league has recognized that and is starting out with unhittable breaking balls. If Bellinger, Seager, and our other young players continue to improve along with Muncy’s and Turner’s consistency should help them during the season and hopefully in the playoffs.

   1. I agree with the idea that we should rethink the “Swiss Army Knife” model where everybody plays whenever and all over the place. I made that point 2 days ago. The Astros and Nats played the same guys in the same positions every day with very few exceptions. The Nats only deviated from their lineup due to Suzuki’s injury and using the DH or not. Turner, Eaton, Rendon and Soto played all 7 games in the same spots. Kendrick 6 games with Zimmerman 7 games in the 6 or 7 hole, Asdrúbal, Robles and Gomes somewhere at 7,8 or 9. Predictable defense, predictable rolls in the order for preparation to EXECUTE.
      Just like the regular season, the Dodgers prefer Doc to overmanage and throw out a different lineup everyday. He did the whole season and in our short playoff with the Nats. While the Nats had the same line up, the Dodgers had a different lineup all 5 games. 2 different guys led off, 3 different guys in the 2 hole, 2 in the 3 hole, 4 different guys in the 5 hole, 5 in the 6 spot and 3 each in the 7 and 8 spots. Only Bellinger played all 5 games in his clean up spot. And that doesn’t even address the position changes in game that show off this valued versatility. Game 1 Beli plays center, first and center. CT3 right, center and left. Muncy second and first. Kiké played left for like the first time ever in Game 5 before moving to second so Muncy could move to first replacing Beaty who is an adventure there. That happened the entire season and I don’t think it works. I like the predictability shown be the 2 teams in the Series and most other teams. Again, I don’t need 5 guys that can play second and 6 outfielders. I need everyday guys who have splits that don’t require a new line up every day. I don’t think model works in the long run. Obviously yeh Dodgers do but tell me again when they last won the World Series.

10. It’s not really fair, but there simply is a bigger difference between the regular season and the playoffs in baseball, than in any other sport. It actually bothers me a bit that these Wild Card teams can so readily win titles, Since 1997, there have been 13 teams which made the World Series as a wildcard, and seven of those actually won the title, three in the last nine years. This gimmick to keep the fans interested during the regular season, has paid off, but one wonders why it hasn’t led to some fan disaffection, as the regular season doesn’t have nearly enough importance, given all those games in it. A team wins 91 or so games beats teams which have won over a hundred. It is fun, we don’t always want the favorite winning, but it belies the value of that grueling regular season.

    But that’s just how it is, so franchises which seek to win titles have to deal with it. Winning 106 games is great, and should never be discounted, but if you lose early in the playoffs, it is pretty much an insipid taste for the season. How do you win titles? Well, easier said than done; but it seems pretty obvious that the best playoff teams (other than those few which are just loaded at every spot), have at least two topflight pitchers, a strong bullpen,, and at least a couple of “professional hitters” who can hit pitchers from both sides, come up big in the clutch. Now, the Nationals did not have any kind of great bullpen, but to their credit, they tried to improve it during the trade deadline (something we did not do) and of course they were able to use their third starter, very good in his own right, for significant innings as a reliever in the Series, thus somewhat minimizing the need for the top corps of relievers.

    By those metrics, the Dodgers fall short. We have one top pitcher, Buehler. We have no top reliever. We clearly have no top starter who can come out of the bullpen in a key game. And as far as professional hitters, for the last two years, our batters have looked pretty bad in most of the playoff series. We have no Rendon or Soto. We do have Bellinger, who just hasn’t come through at all in big games; we have an injured Turner, and then a few guys who are pluses, but not really fearsome. Put another way, our lineup can be pitched around; we have lefties who can’t hit lefties; guys who strike out a lot, leave runners on base.

    How much of this is just bad luck, the vagaries of sports, and how much is who we are? We can argue that all offseason. We cannot completely revamp our team, but conversely, if we just leave it as it is, it is more than likely that we will not win any titles with it. We have too many holes, or at least big “ifs.” We have one top starter. Kershaw is never going to be what he was five years ago, he may be worse than this year. Urias has proved very little so far as a starter. May and Gonsolin are interesting, but certainly unproven for a season. The bullpen is pretty flimsy; no closer, no set-up man, various prospects and guys we picked up via waivers or very small trades, whom we keep bringing back seemingly because it is the path of least resistance. As to hitters, we see the flaws in our lineup. Who in it has this great potential to become better than he already is? Virtually no one, outside of rookie types like Lux, whom we can imagine to become great, but who really knows?

    Futures odds are interesting. If Rendon and Strasburg stay in Washington, they are a much better bet than we are, with their two great starters, a fine third starter, a not bad fourth starter, plus Rendon and Soto. If the Yankees get a high-end starter, they are also a much better bet than we are. Who knows about the rest? But if we go into next season with mostly the same personnel, and then just pleasantly imagine that all these young guys will be really good, and some of the veterans will bounce back, it is likely that we will fall back into the pack. There is always the chance that the longshot chance will come in, that our young players are better than those of other contending teams, that a pitching staff of Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, May and Gonsolin or Hill, will be formidable in the playoffs. I think that it is very unlikely, not as compared to the staffs of some other teams, and we don’t know what the Braves or Cardinals might do in the offseason, or even the Padres, who might get Cole. This could start to remind us of the ’90’s, when we were frugal, played it safe , had a small corps of good players, but not of the caliber of the best clubs. That is the way we could go, unless we wake up to the fact that a team needs to be built for a big playoff run, and that there are certain indispensable pieces needed, which we do not have, other than by a very favorable positive extrapolation of our talent. I would be amazed if we won the title next year, unless we made some very positive additions. And I don’t know if the players still have their confidence in Roberts as a manager.

11. For those of you who aren’t enamored with Julio Urias, I can only tell you two things:

    He passes the eye test and the stats back it up. He cruised through all levels of the Dodgers farm system and made his debut in 2016 when he was just 19-years-old. Before that, he was ranked the 4th best prospect in baseball by MLB.com, leaving scouts drooling over his potential.

    At the age of 19, with so much hype around him, he pitched to a stellar 5-2 record with a shiny 3.39 ERA in 18 appearances. More impressively is that he was able to strike out 81 batters in just 77 IP. Then he needed shoulder surgery. He made a quick recovery and put up a 2.85 ERA in the 2018 Post-Season.

    In 2019, the Dodgers chose to throttle him down and he pitched 80 innings with a 2.49 ERA. He struck out 85 and held hitters to a .201 BA. Buehler’s ERA was almost a run higher and the league hit .223 against him. Striker has more wicked nasty stuff but Urias is almost as fast and very deceptive. He also has 4 plus pitches.

    I think he can jump to 150+ innings in 2020. He is still young and has a Fernando-Type of body but is very athletic. I have heard that the Dodgers are working with him on his conditioning as well.

    I look for big things from him.

    1. I agree Urias has a huge upside and an increasing backside. At 19 I can only hope that he doesn’t eat his way off the mound.

       1. What the fuck does that work connote?

12. 1 – I think that everyone who follows baseball and follows the Dodgers believe that they need to be less left handed offensively, need to improve the bullpen and to obtain an ace starter.
    2 – The enviable depth of the Dodgers is crucial to winning the regular season. It’s what has enabled them to win the Division 7 straight seasons. It doesn’t help you win the Series.
    3 – There have been lots of teams who have ridden a tandem of stud ace pitchers to win championships. Sure, it’s not the only way to do it but it seems to be as good a way as any. While Buehler has ace stuff and a very good post-season track record, there isn’t anyone else on the staff that you can say that about. Kershaw is snake bit in the post-season. It has happened to others. Justin Verlander is 0 – 5 in the Series. Think of Don Newcombe for instance. Urias might be that guy, but if he’s never pitched more than 80 innings in a season he won’t double that next year. I wouldn’t expect more than 120 IP from Julio. May is only 21; Gonsolin has never thrown more than 80 innings either.
    4 – Gerrit Cole won’t be coming to LA. The Braintrust rightly won’t give him enough seasons.
    5 – Nick Castellanos still can’t play defense.
    6 – I agree with AC. The Dodgers have been pretty constant in their methods for the past 4 seasons without ultimate success. I think that they need to be bolder this offseason. I doubt that they will be, but Friedman is certainly capable of surprises. I just don’t see the Dodgers spending the kind of cash that others dream they might. Therefore – look for changes via trade rather than free agent signings.

13. Enough of the Castellanos can’t play defense. He’s 6 errors in the OF in over 330+ games. And, the Dodgers are excellent at positioning their outfielders. About his arm I don’t know, but he did play third base so it can’t be that bad. I think him being awful at third base lead to his can’t play defense syndrome. Anyway, his right hand bat will make up for any supposed flaws in the field which at this point are overblown.

    Mark, I hope and want you to be right about Urias. I agree he is talented and athletic, but the Dodgers have jerked him around in his development so far in his career. I just see a problem with expecting him to pitch 150+ ininngs in 2020. I would love nothing more than proved wrong and for him to become an ace that we all envisioned when he first arrived on the scene. As a die hard Dodger fan I want every Dodger to reach their potential and be successful.

    1. I don’t know if you believe in defensive WAR, but Castellanos compiled negative 1.5 dWAR last season. In 7 seasons he has negative 10.2 dWAR. He has never had a plus dWAR season. Sorry, he’s not a good defender.

       1. Hey Dodgerrick. I do believe in dWAR as a tool in evaluating a player. First, I don’t know if you are against signing Castellanos just because of his defensive deficiencies. If that’s not the case, then my further comments are irrelevant.
          But, if you don’t want him a Dodger because “he still can’t play defense” I disagree. I understand the negative dWAR and some other defensive stats. But, -1.5 for last year isn’t so bad. And, the -10.2 dWAR in the last seven years may not be accurate. He’s only been playing the OF full time since 2017. The -10.2 might include his awful 3B play. Since he only started full time three years ago, he has been learning a new position. Is he in the “can’t play defense” category in the OF”? I say no. Is he good? No. Is he average and improving? I say yes. Like I mentioned above the Dodgers excel at positioning their OF. That will make him better. Do you think the Dodgers are better than the Tigers at OF positioning? I say yes. Also, he will be playing for a playoff caliber team after signing a nice contract as opposed to one of the worst teams in baseball. Look at what he did after leaving Detroit and going to Chicago. The RH offense he can provide far outweigh any deficiencies he might have in the field. Besides, he would be an improvement over the bust signing of Pollack who didn’t actually shine in LF himself last year. Finally, Castellanos has played 140+ games six of his seven seasons.

14. Just out of curiosity, Mark, which players/prospects would you make available? It’s easy to see how oddsmakers would make the Dodgers a likely candidate to make the next World Series or win it. With the exception of Ryu, the Dodgers can return pretty much return the entire 106 win team and with a tweak or two can improve upon it. Big question for the Astros, who replaces Cole? The Nats are riddled with questions. Does Strasburg opt out? Does Rendon go elsewhere? The Dodgers have plenty of potential solutions to Ryu leaving, the Nats and Astros, not so much.

    My guess is the Dodgers don’t pursue Cole, although they will kick the tires. Too much risk and pitching isn’t exactly a big problem. I don’t think Cole gets anything near $300 million, most likely around $220-225.

    Rendon does make sense on many levels. Looking ahead, who plays third after Turner?
    But a lot of teams will pursue Rendon and the Dodgers can get another year or two from Justin, play Lux at second, Muncy at first and Seager at short. That’s actually pretty easy. The outfield is pretty much set. Pollock’s second half puts him in left with Verdugo in center or right. Young players like Beatty provide depth.

    Urias is really good so the obvious hope is that he becomes the number two with Kershaw, May, Maeda and Gonsolin making up a pretty good rotation. I still think Wheeler makes sense for the Dodger, the hard thrower with great stuff and capable of throwing 180 to 200 innings. Not too different from Cole except for the injury history.
    But young and less expensive. You can never have enough starting pitching. The problem with Ryu is the length and contract Boras will try to peddle.

    In terms of who may be available in trade: Pederson, Taylor, a few top 15-20 prospects, Stripling, But if you trade Pederson, that’s a lot of big hits to replace.

    Since both the Astros and Nats had two elite starting pitchers and a third, who could become a key bullpen piece, the new model for how to reach and win a World Series will be centered on that approach. The day of eight to 10 relievers is over. Except, maybe in Tampa.

    One thing is certain, the Dodgers need a big bat to hit behind Bellinger. It can’t be a Taylor.

    Bring on the Winter Meetings. Let the fun begin.

15. https://dodgersway.com/2019/10/31/dodgers-scary-front-office-moves/

16. After watching a visibly upset Zack Greinke in the Astros’ dugout in the late innings last night, I couldn’t help but wonder if he regrets leaving the Dodgers for the Diamondbacks. He would have had MANY more postseason starts with the Dodgers. Obviously the Diamondbacks regretted the deal eventually, paying Houston $24 mil to take him. Houston did provide prospects in exchange, but would not do the deal without the cash. Zack might do well the next 2 years with Houston, but that doesn’t replace the lost opportunities of 2016-2019.

    1. I watched Greinke a lot this year and he has really slipped towards the end. He is much less than Kershaw except that he is more unpredictable than Clayton. If Clayton can work on a change and quit pounding the zone on the first pitch, he might be fine.

       AC made a good point about Castellanos in LA maybe not hitting as good, kind of like I made about DJLM. In 2019 Dodger Stadium ranked the 24th most difficult park to homer in while Wrigley was 22nd, so the difference may not be a lot. I think the biggest difference will be RVS for Nick. Castellanos is a very smart guy and a breakout candidate.

       1. ON what basis do you proclaim “Castellanos is a very smart guy”?

          He may be a good ballplayer (or only OK) but “very smart”?

          He hasn’t been to college (not that that matters too much), but he’s not like Kyle Henricks who attended Dartmouth or something.

          Before his trade to the Cubs he was having a career worst season. After the trade he played the best he had ever played offensively. Does this make him “very smart”?

          What does Fangraphs think about Nick C.?

          “Given the league’s general lack of interest in middling corner outfielders in recent years, Castellanos didn’t appear to be headed for a large payday this winter. While a corner outfielder with roughly league-average offense has value, Castellanos has historically given back a win a year thanks to below-average defense. ZiPS projected a two-year, $23 million contract for Castellanos at the time of the trade.”

          What does Fangraphs think of his defense now?

          “Playing DH would maximize Castellanos’s value to his next team, but only half the teams in baseball would have the ability to use him in this manner, short of a very surprising rule change this offseason that implements the DH in the National League for 2020. ”

          So if the Dodgers are going to sign a player like JD Martinez, why not get the real thing? (Martinez has an opt out this offseason)

          Castellanos in 2019:
          .289/.337/.525/.863, 27 HR, 121 OPS+

          Martinez in 2019:
          .304/.383/.557/.939, 36 HR, 140 OPS+

          1. I know you know this, but it still needs to be said. There is a difference between book smarts and baseball smarts. But your point is still valid. I have no idea what his baseball IQ is. We do know that JDM took to RVS’ tutelage. We have no idea if Castellanos will. I will not be disappointed either way with Castellanos. To me he is not a big difference maker, but he will be less expensive than other options. I would rather spend more on difference makers. If AF is ever going to go out of his comfort zone with larger contracts, this will be the year. They have approximately $45MM in available salary before they hit CBT. Even Todd Boehly says it is sustainable to spend up to the CBT. There is no benefit to spend just to spend. But if a difference maker wants to come to LA, AF should make sure to take the call.

          2. Nick’s dad is a Doctor and his mother is a teacher. They challenged him and his brother intellectually. He is very blunt and very articulate. I have watched interviews with him and he seems quick and smart.

             He was in a bad situation in Detroit and the previous year he was the main caretaker for his father who had cancer (since cured).

             I love the way he goes opposite field:
             

             Listen to this:
             

       2. I thought Grienke deserved a better fate last night. I do think that his trade, along with the Gallen kid to the D-backs was a good trade for both teams.

          1. Me too Phil. He was solid up to the 7th.

17. You have mentioned get the guy before he becomes the guy right?
    Would wheeler be someone that could be that guy? Stats have him as being very similar to Cole. Wouldn’t hurt if the price is right….

    What do you guys think of Abreu from the White Sox, I believe he is a FA. That would be a good option on a RH power bat.

    1. Wheeler would depend upon the price.

       Abreu will be 33 next year. If the price was right…

    2. As stated before…

       Are you sure Wheeler if much (if any) of an improvement over Stripling?

       1. Maybe a very expensive improvement? I don’t think they will go for Wheeler. No value there. Maybe a 1 year rental?

18. DODGERS ADD LHP VICTOR GONZÁLEZ

    LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today added Victor González to the 40-man roster.
    Gonzalez, 23, appeared in 38 games (13 starts) across three different levels last season, posting a combined 5-2 record with a 2.31 ERA (23 ER/89.2 IP) with 93 strikeouts against 32 walks. He started the season with High-A Rancho Cucamonga, going 2-1 with a 1.65 ERA (5 ER/27.1 IP) and 36 strikeouts before his promotion to Double-A Tulsa May 19. After 15 games (eight starts) and a 2.23 ERA (12 ER/48.1 IP) with the Drillers, Gonzalez was promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma City on July 26. He finished the season with Oklahoma City, posting a 3.86 ERA (6 ER/14.0 IP) and 13 strikeouts against four walks in 15 games.

    Gonzalez has been with the Dodger organization since he signed as a minor league free agent on July 2, 2012 out of Veracruz, Mexico. In seven seasons with the Dodgers, he is a combined 17-27 record with a 4.34 ERA (182 ER/377.0 IP) with 364 strikeouts against 138 walks.

19. KJ has decided to NOT opt out.

    1. SHOCK!

       😉

       1. I think the baseball world is shocked.

20. Here’s some things I noted:

    The Nationals bullpen this year was atrocious. Two years ago, the Astros bullpen for the playoffs was their starting rotation. In the playoffs, traditional bullpens are useless if you need them to be.

    Home field advantage is minimal.

    Internally developed talent is vital. Soto, Altuve, Bregman, Renfon, Betts, etc.

    Steve Pearce, Howie Kendrick. You need marginal players to get hot.

    Luck doesn’t hurt.

    The Dodgers out hit the Nationals in their series.

21. It’s a funny old game.

    Who’d of thought a year ago that Dozier & Hudson would have Rings, and that Howie, who was embarrassingly bad defensively against the Dodgers, would end up a hero?

    On to next season…

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